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Covid 19 data
- 1. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Presentation: Yacine Smail ENG.,M. medical devices ENG A science without data is simply an illusion COVID-19 DATA Analyses
- 2. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Disclaimer 1) Any information provided is not medical advice and cannot replace a medical visit. 2) This analysis is simply an estimation and the validity depend on the information presented by the formal institutions.
- 3. COVID-19 DATA Analyses To make an estimate of the number of patients who can die likely from COVID-19 We use a built-in software that allows us to make correlations between the data presented by France and Italy, these correlations can be affected by several factors among others pollution which is much higher in northern Italy relatively to Quebec.
- 4. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Beforehand let's present elements that can influence the veracity of the analyses: - Respiratory capacity - Percentage of smokers (males/females) - Pollution in Italy
- 5. Figure 1: FEV1/FVC COVID-19 DATA Analyses This figure shows that the FEV1/FVC ration decreases with age. Respiratory capacity
- 6. Figure 2: Percentage of smokers in world COVID-19 DATA Analyses This figure shows a higher prevalence of smoking among men Percentage of smokers (male/female)
- 7. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Pollution in Italy Figure 3: Pollution in northern part of Italy The figure 3 shows that the north Italy has the highest pollution in Europe
- 8. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Pollution in Italy Turin, Milan and Naples are the three European cities where the concentration of fine particulate matter is the most dangerous, according to a report by the World Health Organization, which is based on measurements taken between 2013 and 2016.(https://www.who.int/fr/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health)
- 9. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Estimation Here an overview of the software used to data analyses Figure 4: Total cases in Italy, France and Quebec
- 10. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Estimation The software allows to: - Estimate the number of days from the covid-19 confirmation to death - The death ratio for confirmed cases for Italy and France - Estimate the total death for next week, for Italy, France and Quebec
- 11. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Italy Analyses Starting Containment despite the containment the number of cases is increasing in Italy, this means a large part was already contaminated before containment.
- 12. COVID-19 DATA Analyses France and Quebec Analyses The curve in Quebec follows France curve with a delay, this will be used to make an extrapolation to estimate the total number of people likely to die from covid-19 in Quebec as of April 8, 2020.
- 13. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Quebec Estimation
- 14. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Estimation Results as of April 8, 2020 17704 5910 455 (using France ratio correlation) Total deaths: - Italy - France - Quebec
- 15. COVID-19 DATA Analyses Conclusion With the current data it is very difficult to have a clear idea of the situation of the COvid- 19 crisis. It seems that pollution and smoking have an influence on the number of deaths. Also, it appears that many people are contaminated before containment. Questions to ask: - Do we have to add the level of pollution to the happiness index of states? - Do we have to encourage people to stop smokig more inventively? - Involve the army to avoid a French scenario, since the Quebec curve is the same? What we are sure we must stay at home and also strengthen our breathing capacity with at least 30 minutes of physical exercise a day and for people who smoke this is the best time to stop.