The Copper Theft Barometer level increased to R14.30 million in August 2015, up 9.16% from July and 9.5% from August 2014. The volume of copper stolen also rose slightly. While the international copper price increased only slightly, South African exports of waste copper products jumped significantly. It is worrying that theft levels continue to rise even as the Chinese economy slows. The increase is more likely due to the depreciating rand and organized crime networks that profit from metal theft and trade.

1. SACCI Media Release
Wednesday
14 October 2015
SACCI COPPER THEFT BAROMETER: AUGUST 2015
The Copper Theft Barometer level increased to R14.30 million in August from R13.20 million in July 2015.
The August figure is 9.16% higher than a month ago and 9.5% higher than a year ago. The Copper Theft
Volume Indicator increased to 206.70 metric tons in August 2015 from 203.42 metric tons in July 2015.
The international average monthly spot price of copper to date increased to $ 5 008 in August from $5 003
July 2015. South African exports of waste copper products increased significantly to $9.4 million in July and
$7.2 million in March from $ 3.4 million in January 2015.
It is worrying that the level has increased both month on month and year on year by a little under 10%.
Previously it was considered that the level was linked to the demand, particularly from China, but with the
poor performance of the Chinese economy, the increase would not be as strongly linked to demand from that
country as previously. The increase in the spot price of copper of $5 a ton does not appear to support an
increase in the level of theft, the increase in the volume stolen being only 3 tons. The increase in value could,
however, be attributed to the volatility and depreciation of the Rand.
According to research carried out by the University College of London the widespread use of metals means
that there are vast opportunities for theft. They found that theft tends to be concentrated at places where
opportunities are plentiful and where guardianship is low, so reducing the risk of an offender being detected.
Common locations include railway lines, churches and construction sites. Research in the US suggests that
levels of metal theft are higher in cities that have a greater rate of scrap metal outlets. Considering that the
SACCI Barometer reflects theft from only Eskom Telkom and Transnet and the relatively remote areas where
they have electricity lines, it is plausible that the risks of being detected are low.

2. According to the University College of London thieves can be thought of as occupying two groups. The first
are those that steal metal-bearing items. These include opportunists who exploit easily removable items to
make a profit. The second major group comprises more organized groups equipped to steal metal on a
grander scale and with a working knowledge of the scrap metal industry. The second group concerns those
that trade in stolen metals. SACCI has long considered this second group as being responsible for most theft.
The college also found that a significant number of drug addicts normally steal small amounts of the metal
that can easily be converted into cash to feed their habits.
While it is easy to place the reason for the increase in value on the depreciation of the Rand – from $3,5
million in January to $9,4 million in July, other factors could be playing a role such as the increasing difficulty
many consumers are facing in making ends meet.
SACCI welcomed the recent legislation that classifies metal theft as an economic crime. The chamber has
long called for this classification. It is early days and the impact of the new law remains to be seen. SACCI
looks forward to a significant reduction in cable theft in the future.
COPPER THEFT RELATIONSHIP WITH COPPER PRICE

3. COPPER THEFT BAROMETER
COPPER PRICE AND EXPORTS OF WASTE COPPER

4. Source: SACCI
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME). Rand price uses 3 month moving average smoothing
Contact: Peggy Drodskie (COO) at 011 446 3800