Collier's Report

Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast
Report
Philippines
1Q 2015
Growth momentum
to continue in 2015
Despite a lackluster performance during the first half of 2014,
the Philippine economy finished strongly during the fourth
quarter, ending with a full year growth rate of 6.1%. This strong
performance is expected to carry over to 2015, as spending
from on-going infrastructure projects and robust domestic
consumption continue to support growth. The IMF has
already adjusted its 2015 GDP forecast upwards by 10 basis
points (+6.7%) and JP Morgan by 90 basis points (+6.4%). The
government, on the other hand, aims to reach growth rates of
between 7 and 8% in 2015.
Office
Increasing demand for office space has ramped up the
construction timelines of upcoming projects for the year.
Three office buildings totalling 39,500 sq m of usable area
were completed as of 1Q 2015. Colliers forecasts that at the
end of 2015, close to 576,000 sq m of usable office space will
be delivered, 43% of which will be located in Fort Bonifacio.
Makati CBD vacancy remained stable at 2.18% amidst a slight
increase in vacancy in Grade B office buildings. Still, rental rates
continued to appreciate as availability of office space remains
limited.
Residential
Four residential condominiums were completed in the major
Metro Manila CBDs during the first quarter, delivering 1,649
new units across major business locations in Metro Manila.
However, construction delays at several condominium projects
will push back the bulk of the expected new supply for 2015. By
year’s end, 8,253 residential units will be completed. With few
new developments to absorb the still strong demand, rents and
resale prices are expected to further appreciate.
Retail
The country’s continued strong domestic consumption had
Metro Manila’s retail stock increasing by 182,000 sq m in
the first quarter to 5.9 million sq m; newly opened malls are
mainly classified as neighbourhood or district centers due to
decreasing opportunities to find large available land parcels in
the metropolis. While renovations in existing malls have led to a
reduction in occupancy, the opening of expansions in the same
malls has mitigated the effect of the increase in vacancies. As
such, retail rents in Makati and Ortigas further appreciated by
1.6 and 3.2% QoQ, respectively.
Market Indicators
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL

2 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
Strong 2014 economic growth causes
revision in this year’s forecast
The Philippines continued its phenomenal economic growth
story in 2014, as the economy expanded by 6.1% despite lower
growth rates posted in the first (+5.6%) and third (+5.3%)
quarters. With the economy growing above 6% over the last
three years, the government has proclaimed that the country is
no longer the “sick man of Asia” and has transformed itself into
one of the tiger economies for the next decade. As a result of
strong growth, several organisations have adjusted their forecast
for 2015, with IMF increasing by 10 basis points (+6.7%) and JP
Morgan increasing by 90 basis points (+6.4%). The government,
on the other hand, aims to reach growth rates of between 7 and
8% in 2015.
Exports provided the biggest push in the economic growth
story with both goods (+12.1%) and services (+12.2%)
expanding by double digits in 2014. This could be attributed
to a surging industrial sector, particularly in manufacturing
(+8.1%) and construction-related activities (+8.5%), and a
flourishing Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry,
which was able to remit USD18.4 billion in export revenues.
Infrastructure development is also expected to bring in more
avenues for growth as more projects in the Public-Private
Partnership programme are being put up for bids including the
development, operations and maintenance of regional airports.
Domestic consumption continued to sustain the economy
although concerns have been raised after OFW remittances
grew the slowest (2.4%) in the first two months of the year.
The global economic slowdown has caused remittances to
dip, particularly in areas where there is a large concentration
of Filipinos abroad. The government, however, recognised
that while external shocks could not be controlled, domestic
shocks can be addressed to spur local spending. The inflation
environment remains healthy (2.4%) in the first quarter while
lending rates have stayed at their lowest (4.5 - 6.9%) since last
year, thereby allowing consumers to purchase big ticket items
such as real estate and vehicles, and companies to undergo
massive expansion strategies.
With a burgeoning economy and a healthy property
market over the last few years, real estate loans have grown
substantially as of December 2014, increasing by 24% YoY to
PHP1.04 trillion. Despite the rapid increase, non-performing
loans only amounted to 2.5% of the total real estate portfolio,
the lowest in six years. This may be attributed to the stricter
policies and regulations implemented by the Central Bank to
ensure the stability of the financial sector, by monitoring real
estate activities of universal and commercial banks.
Economic Growth Indicators
Economic Indicators
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross National Product 6.10 6.00 6.50 8.40 3.20 6.40 7.50 6.30
Gross Domestic Producta
6.60 4.20 1.10 7.60 3.90 6.80 7.20 6.10
Household Final Consumption
Expenditure 4.60 3.70 2.30 3.40 6.10 6.60 5.70 5.40
Government Final Consumption
Expenditure
6.90 0.30 10.90 4.00 1.00 15.50 7.70 1.80
Capital Formation (0.50) 23.40 (8.70) 31.60 8.10 (5.30) 29.90 1.10
Exports 6.70 (2.70) (7.80) 21.00 (4.20) 8.50 (1.10) 12.10
Imports 1.70 1.60 (8.10) 22.50 0.20 4.90 5.40 5.80
AHFFb
4.70 3.20 (0.70) (0.20) 2.70 2.80 1.10 1.90
Industry 5.80 4.80 (1.90) 11.60 2.30 7.30 9.30 7.50
Services 7.60 4.00 3.40 7.20 5.10 7.40 7.20 6.00
Average Inflationc
2.90 8.30 4.10 3.90 4.60 3.20 3.00 4.10
Budget Surplus/Deficit (PHP Bn) (12.40) (68.10) (298.50) (314.40) (197.70) (242.80) (164.10) (73.09)
PHP:US$ (Average) 46.10 44.70 47.60 45.10 43.31 42.09 42.45 44.40
Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates (%) 3.40 5.20 4.00 3.70 1.37 1.58 0.32 1.24
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Bureau of Treasury
a
at constant 2000 prices
b
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
c
at constant 2006 prices
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
OFW Remittancesa
a
as of February 2015

Land values post stable growth
Land values in the major CBDs exhibited stable growth during
the period. Average prices in the Makati CBD grew modestly
by 0.9% QoQ to PHP443,750 per sq m. Fort Bonifacio values
ranged between PHP273,000 and 500,000 per sq m, growing
by 1.1% QoQ. For the second straight quarter, Ortigas land
values appreciated the fastest by 1.9% QoQ, at an average price
of PHP161,500 per sq m. Land values are expected to increase
between 6 and 8% in the next 12 months due to strong demand
for land assets in these areas amid increasing scarcity of
available land options.
Residential licenses off to a slow start
in Q1 2015
The Housing and Land Use Regulatory board issued only 48,411
property licenses in the first quarter, only half of the volume
during the same period a year before (93,562 in 1Q 2014).
Significant decreases were seen in the applications of nearly
all segments with the exception of commercial condominiums
(+189%); industrial (+6%) and commercial subdivisions
(+271%); and farm lots – all non-residential uses. Developers
are still banking on the strong demand for office space with a
near doubling of commercial use property applications.
Comparative Land Values (Php / sqm)
LOCATION 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2016F % CHANGE (YoY)
Makati CBD 320,000-560,000 327,500-560,000 0.85 347,595-604,795 7.31
Ortigas Center 122,000-195,000 125,000-198,000 1.89 133,915-215,270 8.11
Fort Bonifacio 265,000-500,000 273,000-500,000 1.05 288,755-542,010 7.47
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Land Values
HLURB Licenses
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
HLURB Licenses to Sell
SEGMENT JAN - MAR '14 JAN - MAR '15 % CHANGE YoY
Socialized Housing 9,820 5,535 -44%
Low Cost Housing 11,189 9,573 -14%
Mid Income Housing 5,826 3,504 -40%
High Rise Residential 19,738 10,820 -45%
Commercial Condominium 336 972 189%
Farm lot - 40 -
Memorial Park 39,026 11,097 -72%
Industrial Subdivision 18 19 6%
Commercial Subdivision 17 63 271%
Total (Philippines) 93,562 48,411 -48%
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

Office
Fort Bonifacio gains stature as the
premier CBD after Makati
Three office buildings were completed in Metro Manila during
the first quarter, totalling 39,500 sq m of usable area. These
buildings are Wilcon IT Hub (24,100 sq m) and McKinley
Exchange Corporate Centre (9,000 sq m) both in the Greater
Makati Area, and 45 San Miguel (6,400 sq m) in Ortigas Centre.
In 2015, close to 576,000 sq m of usable office space will be
delivered, 63% of which will be located in the Fort Bonifacio and
Makati areas.
Fort Bonifacio has established itself as the next central business
district after the Makati CBD after attracting numerous
multinational companies to locate in the area. Apart from
banking companies like JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank, two of
the largest Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies,
Procter & Gamble and Unilever, are expected to expand their
operations in the area this year. Due to the increasing demand
for office space, developers have ramped up the construction
of their office projects in the CBDs. By 2018, Colliers predicts
that Fort Bonifacio office stock will reach 1.97 million sq m,
delivering an average of 250,000 sq m annually in the four-year
period. With the outsourcing industry expected to carry the
office sector, developers are expected to produce buildings that
are also ideal for BPO companies to attract more demand for
their projects.
Overall Makati CBD vacancy remains
stable
Overall vacancy in the Makati CBD remained stable at 2.18%
during the first quarter of 2015. Premium office space vacancy
declined slightly by 5 basis points, as a vacancy increase in the
smaller office spaces in the Enterprise Centre was offset by
the takeup of 1,120 sq m in Philamlife Tower. Grade A vacancy
was 7.6%, a 10 basis point decline from the previous quarter,
as strong take-up was offset by vacated spaces in Pacific Star
Building and Ayala Life FGU Centre. Meanwhile, some older
Grade B office units were vacated, leading to a slight increase in
vacancy to 0.83%. Given these trends, Colliers predicts that the
overall vacancy in the Makati CBD office sector will continue to
drop as supply remains tight, and shall remain below 2% in the
next 12 months.
Forecast New Office Supply (Net Usable Area)
LOCATION END OF 2014* 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F TOTAL
Makati CBD 2,842,445 - - - 60,200 2,902,645
Ortigas 1,283,209 81,509 28,787 - 32,752 1,426,257
Fort Bonifacio 975,157 246,025 257,599 427,721 65,837 1,972,339
Eastwood 300,264 - - 28,220 - 328,484
Alabang 378,271 - 53,330 70,563 502,164
Mandaluyong 300,183 - - 101,184 401,367
North EDSA - Triangle 310,908 8,185 99,090 - 35,618 453,801
Pasay City - Reclamation 186,203 70,377 72,680 46,775 - 376,035
Other Locations** 408,365 170,343 137,118 181,641 86,058 983,525
Total 6,985,005 576,439 648,604 856,104 280,465 9,346,617
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research *
revised figures
**
Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, Quezon City and other fringe locations
Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock
Makati CBD Comparative Office Vacancy Rates (%)
4Q 2014* 1Q 2015 1Q 2016F
Premium 0.49 0.44 0.18
Grade A 7.70 7.59 4.69
Grade B & Below 0.75 0.83 0.59
All Grades 2.15 2.18 1.41

Office rents exhibit stable growth
Premium rents continued to rally in the first quarter, growing
by 2.2% QoQ to PHP1,175 per sq m per month. Landlords of
Premium office buildings were able to charge more due to
strong demand amid limited availability of space. Meanwhile,
Grade A rents accelerated in the period at 3.2% QoQ. As such,
an average Grade A office space will cost an average monthly
rent of PHP878 per sq m per month. On the other hand, Grade B
rents exhibited slower growth compared to the previous period,
at 1.9% QoQ to PHP673 per sq m per month. Colliers expects
that rental rates in the Makati CBD will grow between by 6.5 and
7.6% over the next 12 months.
Capital value growth accelerates
during 1Q
Capital value growth in the Makati CBD outpaced rent growth
during the period, as landlords considered the sudden uptick
in average land values two quarters ago. Premium office space
averaged PHP158,000 per sq m, a 2.4% QoQ increase. Grade A
office values, much like rents, appreciated the fastest at 4.1%
QoQ as a result of a higher acquisition price at one of the office
spaces in the area. On the other hand, Grade B capital values
averaged PHP73,500 per sq m, growing by 3.2% QoQ. Colliers
expects that capital value growth will continue to outpace rent
growth in the next 12 months, between 7.5 and 8.6%, as capital
value growth expectations remain more bullish.
Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand
Comparative Rental Rates (Php/sq m/month)
Makati CBD (based on net usable area)
GRADE 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2016F % CHANGE (YoY)
Premium 1,000 - 1,300 1,020 - 1,330 2.17 1,085 - 1,425 6.67
Grade A 695 - 1,005 705 - 1,050 3.24 745 - 1,125 6.53
Grade B 550 - 770 560 - 785 1.89 595 - 850 7.64
Comparative Office Capital Values (Php / sq m)
Makati CBD (based on net usable area)
GRADE 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2016F % CHANGE (YoY)
Premium 146,500 - 162,000 148,000 - 168,000 2.43 157,470 - 182,475 7.58
Grade A 83,000 - 113,000 86,000 - 118,000 4.08 91,275 - 127,975 7.48
Grade B 59,000 - 83,500 62,000 - 85,000 3.16 66,880 - 92,810 8.63
Makati CBD Office Capital Values

Residential
Construction delays push new
residential supply to 2016
Four residential condominiums were completed in the major
Metro Manila CBDs during the first quarter of 2015, offering
1,649 new units to the market. These were Icon Plaza (308 units)
and The Venice Luxury Residences – Bellini Tower (332 units)
at Fort Bonifacio, Park Terraces Tower 1 (370 units) in Makati
and One Shangri-La Place South Tower (639 units) in Ortigas.
Construction delays have pushed bulk of this year’s expected
new supply to 2016. Colliers forecasts that 8, 253 residential
units will be completed in 2015.
Likewise, concerns of a possible oversupply in the
condominium market led developers to delay completions of
their projects. Still, a total of 30,935 residential units are to be
delivered in the next three years with nearly 40% of the figure
expected by 2016. The majority of these units are studio and
Forecast Residential New Supply
LOCATION END 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F TOTAL
Makati CBD 18,564 1,768 4,857 1,485 1,072 522 27,746
Rockwell 4,600 - - 346 492 - 5,438
Fort Bonifacio 21,341 3,729 6,599 2,979 1,010 407 35,658
Ortigas 15,343 2,756 1,227 573 422 - 20,321
Eastwood 8,266 - 988 - 632 - 9,886
Total 68,114 8,253 13,671 5,383 3,628 929 99,049
Makati CBD Residential Vacancy
Makati CBD residential vacancy
further declines
Residential vacancy for Makati CBD slightly declined in the first
quarter 2015 amidst continued strong take up for condominium
units. Likewise, the limited number of new completions for the
period helped pull down vacancy figures; the business district’s
vacancy lowered by 16 basis points to 7.9% largely from the
take up of Grade A buildings, still the preferred property by unit
buyers. However, the delivery of new units in the coming 12
months is expected to push overall vacancy to 11%.
one bedroom units sizing between 18 to 90 sqm. Meanwhile,
the larger units, from 3 to 5 bedroom units, account for 7.0% of
the new supply with unit cuts of between 100 and 500 square
meters. As such, the influx of these smaller sized units is
expected to create pressure on rental rates and prices.
Makati CBD Residential Stock
Makati CBD Comparative Residential Vacancy Rates (%)
4Q 2014 1Q 2015 1Q 2016F
Luxury 4.4 3.6
Others 8.5 8.6
All Grades 8.1 7.9 11.1
*
revised figures

Lack of developments pushes rates
higher
The lack of new completions coupled with strong take-up
puts upward pressure on rental rates. As such, rates in the
first quarter grew significantly from figures posted in 4Q 2014.
Average monthly rent in the Makati CBD amounted to PHP 848
per sq m for the period, higher by 1.3% QoQ. Similar increases
were seen in Fort Bonifacio (+1.5%) and Rockwell (+1.7%). In
the next 12 months, Colliers expects rents in these locations to
reach between 4.7 and 5.1%.
Prime 3BR Units Residential Rents
Metro Manila Residential Condominium
Comparative Luxury 3BR Rental Rates (PHP / sq m / month)
LOCATION 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2016F %CHANGE (YoY)
Makati CBD 575 - 1,100 578 - 1,118 1.3 603 - 1,180 5.1
Rockwell 750 - 1,055 755 - 1,080 1.7 800 - 1,124 4.8
Fort Bonifacio 640 - 1,045 660 - 1,050 1.5 688 - 1,102 4.7
Makati CBD Comparative Residential Lease Rates for
Exclusive Villages (Php / month)
3BR - 4BR, Unfurnished to Semi-Furnished
VILLAGE LOW HIGH
Forbes Park 250,000 600,000
Dasmarinas Village 200,000 500,000
Urdaneta Village 200,000 500,000
Bel-air Village 130,000 300,000
San Lorenzo Village 120,000 280,000
Magallanes Village 90,000 200,000
Ayala Alabang Village 75,000 250,000

Metro Manila Residential Condominium
Comparative Luxury 3BR Capital Values (PHP / sqm)
LOCATION 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2016F % CHANGE (YoY)
Makati CBD 100,000 - 189,000 102,500 - 192,200 1.3 106,670 - 203,000 5.8
Rockwell 117,000 - 180,000 119,000 - 189,000 3.7 125,805 - 198,200 5.1
Fort Bonifacio 110,000 - 172,500 113,000 - 179,500 3.5 118,750 - 192,000 6.3
Capital values continue to outgrow
rental rates
Capital values for Makati CBD residential property grew a tad
higher by 1.3% to a range of PHP100,000 to 189,000 per sq m.
Rockwell values continued to post the fastest growth, which
for the quarter was at 3.7% QoQ, between PHP119,000 and
189,000 per sq m; the lack of new supply in the business center
continues to push property values in the area even higher.
Similar growth was seen also in Fort Bonifacio (+3.5 %) where
there is still significant land bank for development. Colliers
expects that values will grow from 5.8 to 6.3% by the end of the
next 12 months.
Prime 3BR Units Residential Capital Values
Comparative Residential Lease Rates (High-Rise)
3BR, Semi Furnished to Fully Furnished
LOCATION MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUM
Apartment Ridge/Roxas Triangle
Rental Range (Php/month) 130,000 180,000 280,000
Average Size (sq m) 250 295 330
Salcedo Village
Legaspi Village
Rockwell
Fort Bonifacio

Retail
Shift to smaller format retail
development observed in Metro
Manila
Metro Manila retail stock reached 5.9 million sq m, increasing
by 182,000 sq m over the last six months due to the completion
of eight projects. Notable projects include Estancia (35,000 sq
m) by Ortigas and Company, and Robinsons Las Pinas (25,700
sq m) by Robinsons Land. The majority of completed projects
were classified as neighborhood and district centers, primarily
catering to the immediate population in a certain locality.
An additional 179,000 sq m of retail space is expected to be
delivered by the end of the year.
Decreasing opportunities to find large available land parcels in
the metropolis, exacerbated by the competition for land for the
booming condominium and office markets, have resulted in the
decreasing number of regional and superregional centers and a
shift towards smaller format retail. Compact mall development
is also strategic as it allows the retailer to go into residential
enclaves that are otherwise underserved in terms of retail. With
worsening traffic conditions in Metro Manila, shoppers would
prefer to go to a convenient neighborhood location than to
spend time in traffic going to a regional mall. In the four-year
supply pipeline, only five projects are classified as regional and
superregional centers. Three are expansion projects, utilizing
the unused space in the current malls. These projects include
Filinvest’s expansion of Festival Supermall (+57,000 sq m) and
SM Prime Holdings’ SM Mall of Asia (+200,000 sq m) expansion
project. Meanwhile, two are new projects and both are owned
by Ayala Land, which was able to increase its land bank in Metro
Manila with key acquisitions and partnerships – the Circuit Mall
(58,000 sq m) in Makati, and Arca South Taguig Phase 1 (73,000
sq m) on the former FTI property in Taguig.
Despite smaller retail spaces dominating new supply, retail
developers remain bullish in pursuing these projects due to
strong domestic consumption amid a stable economic outlook.
From 2016 to 2018, an average of 210,000 sq m of retail space is
targeted to be delivered annually.
Retail Stock
Metro Manila
CLASSIFICATION 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2016F % CHANGE (YoY)
Super Regional 3,657,635 3,657,635 0.00 3,714,635 1.56
Regional 934,983 1,014,983 8.56 1,034,983 1.97
District/Neighborhood 1,200,843 1,228,515 2.30 1,449,068 17.95
All Levels 5,793,461 5,901,133 1.86 6,198,686 5.04
Retail vacancies decline despite
expansion activities
Vacancy rates at both regional and superregional malls declined
further in the last six months, posting an occupancy rate of
97.9% as of the first quarter. While some retail spaces were
rendered vacant due to renovation and relocation activities,
retailers have opened new shops in these malls thereby
increasing the occupancy rate and mitigating the effects of the
vacated areas.
Some retailers are embarking on expansion activities to
facilitate further growth of their businesses. At the same time,
new entrants in the food, fashion, and technology sectors are
expected to be online in the next six to nine months. As a result,
Colliers predicts that occupancy will revert to high 98% levels by
the end of the year.
Metro Manila
Comparative Retail Vacancy Rates (%)
4Q 2014 1Q 2015
Super Regional 1.98 1.53
Regional 3.66 4.17

Retail rents maintain strong growth
Rental rates at Ayala Centre amounted to PHP1,425 per sq m
per month, growing by 1.6% QoQ. Meanwhile, Ortigas Centre
rental rates accelerated by 3.2% QoQ, its fastest quarterly
growth in recent years. As such, rents at Ortigas Centre averaged
PHP1,275 per sq m per month. Colliers forecasts that retail rents
in these areas will grow between 5 and 7.5% over the next 12
months.
Ortigas Monthly Retail Rents
Consumer Spending Growth Rate
Source: Philippine Statistical Authority
Declining oil prices and stable
inflation cause positive consumer
sentiment
A 40% decline in the global crude prices since November
2014 greatly contributed to a healthy inflation environment
(4.1%), helping domestic consumption to grow at 5.1% in
2014. Apart from growing expenditures for basic necessities
like food and housing, the Philippine Statistical Authority
reported increasing growth rates for restaurants and hotels
(+6.8% YoY), and recreation and culture (+5.3%), affirming
that on a macroeconomic level, more families are able to earn
more income for their families. As a result of this encouraging
economic environment, consumer outlook over the next 12
months is positive due to more disposable income leading to
more savings and availability of more jobs, among others.
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
-0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Makati Monthly Retail Rents

Author:
Mark Lagunilla
Analyst | Philippines
+63 2 888 9988
mark.lagunilla@colliers.com
Contributors:
Julius Guevara
Director | Research & Advisory
julius.guevara@colliers.com
David A. Young
Managing Director | Philippines
david.a.young@colliers.com
Copyright © 2015 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its
accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors
prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
Colliers International
Philippines
11F Frabelle Business Center
111 Rada St Legaspi Village
Makati City 1229 Philippines
TEL +63 2 888 9988
502 offices in
67 countries on
6 continents
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under management
professionals
and staff
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ANZ: 160
EMEA: 108

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