Every day, every person on earth is faced with making choices. Some decisions are trivial and don't matter much – we make them unconsciously. Whatever you choose for these types of decisions will pretty much be fine. But what about the weightier choices, the ones that have lasting consequences? They require much more careful consideration. On slides, I share how businesses (and others) can improve the experience of choosing. 6 different tools will be discovered and discuss their pros and cons.

1. CHOICE
TOOLS, EXAMPLES, FLAWS, CONSEQUENCES

2. About me
14+ years in IT
7+ years @ Betsson / Ciklum
PMP, PMI-ACP
Anatoliy Drapey
Development Center Manager
https://www.linkedin.com/in/anatoliy-drapey-pmp-pmi-acp-b317ab20/
a.drapii@gmail.com

3. Making a choice is difficult

4. Tool #1
Statistic. Using open information
https://dou.ua/lenta/articles/portrait-2017/

5. Google Trend Analysis
Example

6. Flaw
average temperature in a hospital (distribution)
popular, but does it solve your case?

7. Flaw – we think that we are good in percentage
and probability calculations, but we are not
Puzzle
Около 1 % детей 40-летних женщин имеют синдром Дауна.
Если ребенок имеет синдром Дауна, то с вероятностью 90 % результат теста будет положительным.
Если ребенок не имеет синдрома Дауна, то результат теста окажется положительным с вероятностью
всего 5 %.
Предположим, что беременная женщина прошла тестирование и его результат оказался
положительным. Каковы шансы на то, что ее ребенок действительно страдает синдромом Дауна?
A - 98-100% (точно у ребенка будет синдром Дауна, т.к. анализы не врут)
B - 85% (вероятно, что будет)
C - 50% (либо будет либо нет, анализы еще ничего не доказывают)
D - 15% (очень маловероятно, что будет)
E - 0-2% (точно не будет, т.к. эти анализы сплошной обман)

8. Consequence – statistic strengthens the
argumentation
Statistic is a strong impersonal argument
Don't need deep knowledge of a subject
Remember data is impersonal but
interpretation could be personal
Statistics are often right, but not always.
Life stories are common statistic
exceptions :)

9. Tool #2
Ask expert

10. Flaw – experts are more often "hedgehogs"
than "foxes"
«A fox knows many things, but a hedgehog one important thing »
(Archilochus)

11. Puzzle – who is a hedgehog?
БЕЗ ВЫСШЕГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ СЕГОДНЯ
НИКУДА! БЕЗ БУМАЖКИ - ТЫ БУКАШКА
ВЫСШЕЕ ОБРАЗОВАНИЕ БЕСПОЛЕЗНО!
МАРК ЦУКЕРБЕРГ БРОСИЛ ИНСТИТУТ
ЧТОБЫ СТАТЬ МИЛЛИАРДЕРОМ.

12. Consequence – want advice, ask a fox
A fox will ask many clarifying questions
A fox will expand your knowledge of the
matter and, perhaps, it will push you to the
right choice
A fox won't make a choice for you

13. Tool #3
gather opinions, write down pros and cons

14. https://www.romexsoft.com/blog/js-frameworks-comparison/
Example

15. Flaw - the importance of the same factors can
be different for different people

16. Consequence
Choose the one most important point
for you and discard all the others
Use voting
Divide a discussion and decision
making

17. Always make decision on your own, if
it concerns your life / future
or it's your job responsibilities

18. This tool is useful individually
How Charles Darwin made the decision of getting married or not

19. Tool #4
Prisoner's dilemma

20. Example – 2х2 matrix
Получить профильное В/О Бросить институт
Работа не требует наличия В/О - Потраченные годы на получение
ВО
+ Квалифицированный
специалист в случае работы за
границей
+ Съэкономленное время
+ Больше денег заработанные за
это время
+ Полезный опыт вместо
бесполезных знаний
Работа требует наличие В/О + Должность/зп зависит от В/О
+ Требует меньше
подтвержденного опыта для
сертификации
+ Квалифицированный
специалист в случае работы за
границей
- Быстро получить В/О не
получится
- Потребует много времени,
которое труднее найти с учетом
семьи и работы

21. Consequence – сhoose an option that
excludes the worst
Find the worst option for you
Choose a solution that excludes this
option

22. Consequence – no guts, no glory
Excluding the worst option, you
likely exclude the possibility of the
best option
Determine your risk tolerance in
this choice

23. Tool #5
Intuition

24. Consequence – throw a coin and listen to
yourself

25. Consequence – decision may not coincide with the
majority, but it doesn't mean that you're wrong
The stronger I ignore the
generally accepted point of
view, the more strongly I
should have evidence that I
perceive what is happening
correctly

26. Tool #6
Critical thinking
http://dilbert.com/strip/1995-11-10

27. Flaw - mind can be deceived
Do not look for patterns, where
they can not be
Avoid fast decisions (enable your
“system 2”)
The present is always in a fog, and
the past is always predetermined

28. Consequence – never hurry up with a
decision and learn constantly
Pay attention to anchoring, availability,
representativeness
Do not attach to decisions taken earlier
Admit mistakes and draw conclusions
Act reasonably, relying only on yourself

29. If your knowledge in a domain is weak - use statistic and expert judgment
If your knowledge in a domain is strong - use intuiting and own expertise
Never delegate making critical decisions - any excuses
Don't be a turkey. Certainty is an illusion. Never stop your self-developing

30. Recommended literature