China:
The Third Revolution
Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State
Elizabeth Economy
Elizabeth Economy, PhD
Council on Foreign Relations:
C. V. Starr senior fellow
Director for Asia studies
Hoover Institution of Stanford University
Visiting Fellow
She is an acclaimed author and expert on Chinese domestic and foreign policy, writing on topics ranging from China's environmental challenges to its role in global governance.
BA – Swarthmore; MA – Stanford; PhD – University of Michigan
Primary Theses
1. Xi Jinping has steered politics and economics towards repression, state control, and confrontation
Xi Jinping has used his power to reassert dominance of the Communist Party and of his own position within it
As part of the campaign against corruption, he has purged potential rivals
He has executed sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army to ensure loyalty of the military to the party and to him personally
Mr. Xi has imprisoned supporters of Western liberal reform and stamped out criticism of the party and government in the media and online
He has created a surveillance state to monitor discontent and deviance.
China increasingly controls business as an arm of state power
Made in China 2025 plan uses subsidies and protection to create world leadership in ten industries including aviation, tech & energy
Belt and Road Initiative subsidizes infrastructure development in Asia and Africa in return for Chinese trade agreements
c. Regional production chains or production networks are the mechanism by which China influences Asian economies and integrates itself with the global economy.
Enables higher degree of specialization and integration
Facilitates exploitation of scale and scope economies
Ideologically, Chinese path is captured in the “Chinese Dream”
The Third Revolution
The Rejuvenation of the Great Chinese Nation
Common Factors that Explain Takeoff
Openness to trade and investment – higher than rest of world
Strong Export Demand in advanced industrial economy
Increasing intra-regional trade
High Domestic Savings & Investment Rates
Strengthened physical and digital infrastructure
Improved quality of human capital
Active Government Involvement in Economy
Openness to trade
Share of Asian trade as % total world trade increasing at expense of European and Russian trade
North American trade relatively stable.
China: export partners in 2016, by export value
(in billion yuan)
United States
“…other than trade and FDI (foreign direct investment), regional production chains or production networks became a mechanism by which Asian economies tangibly influenced each other as well as integrated in a market-led manner. As barriers to the movement of goods, services and factors of production are dropped further, Asian economies would integrate more with each other as well as with the global economy.” Das, p. 13
Enables higher degree of specialization and integration
Facilitates .
The document discusses the political and economic characteristics of the "China Model" of development. It describes how China has achieved remarkable economic growth while maintaining political autonomy and sovereignty. After Mao Zedong's death, Deng Xiaoping embraced economic reforms and globalization, opening China to foreign trade and investment. This allowed China to benefit from technology and market access while maintaining a centralized authoritarian government controlled by the Communist Party. The model has been viewed positively due to China's success in reducing poverty and maintaining stability, though it also faces challenges from inequality and environmental issues. The rise of the "China Model" is gaining international interest as an alternative to liberal democracy models.
China is the most populous country in the world with over 1.3 billion people. It has the second largest economy and is a one party socialist state led by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. China has a long history dating back over 5,000 years and was the last imperial dynasty until 1911. It became the People's Republic of China after the communist victory in the civil war in 1949 led by Mao Zedong. China has experienced rapid economic growth and development and is now the world's largest exporter and importer of goods.
China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past 30 years, becoming the world's second largest economy. It is also the largest exporter and second largest importer globally. While China and India are often compared, there are important differences in their economic systems and growth drivers. China's growth has been led by large state-owned companies, while India's private sector has played a bigger role. China maintains more state control over its financial system and can direct credit, while India's system is more market-driven. Both countries still have work to do to address issues around development, inequality, environmental protection, and an aging population as they continue growing in the decades ahead.
China has experienced rapid economic growth since adopting more capitalist policies in 1978, but maintains tight authoritarian control politically. Globalization is challenging this model in several ways. It is harder for China to censor foreign media and control the flow of information online and through technology. Major events like earthquakes have led Chinese media to defy propaganda restrictions and report more openly. As globalization increases interconnection and access to outside information, it will be difficult for China to sustain its closed political system long-term.
Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics赵巍 Wei ZHAO
The document discusses perspectives on capitalism in China from sociological theorists. It analyzes China's economic transition and development through a sociological lens, examining the role of the state, market, and society. Some key points made include:
- China has developed a "socialist market economy" with the Communist party playing a major role in mobilizing resources and directing economic growth. This has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty.
- Sociological theorists like Weber, Parsons, Habermas, and Polanyi provide frameworks for understanding the relationship between the economic, political, and social spheres in China's system.
- The state acts as a collective entrepreneur, investing and accumulating capital to drive development while
New Report Exposes Chinas Malign Influence And Corrosion Of Democracy Worldwi...MYO AUNG Myanmar
https://www.iri.org/resource/new-report-exposes-chinas-malign-influence-and-corrosion-democracy-worldwide IRI (INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE) is the premier international democracy-development organization https://youtu.be/XhBUbbQyhxE New Report Exposes China's Malign Influence and Corrosion of Democracy Worldwide You are hereHome > New Report Exposes China's Malign Influence and Corrosion of Democracy Worldwide CHINESE MALIGN INFLUENCEAND THE CORROSION OF DEMOCRACY An Assessment of Chinese Interference in Thirteen Key Countries The report, entitled "Chinese Malign Influence and the Corrosion of Democracy," brings together research by experts from 12 vulnerable democracies — Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Serbia, Ecuador, Zambia, Mongolia, Hungary, The Gambia, Myanmar, Malaysia and the Maldives — and provides local perspectives on how China is impacting the politics and economics of these countries. https://www.iri.org/country/asia/details INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE info@iri.org
Socialism with chinese characteristics and global superpower aspirantM S Siddiqui
In a world comprising a diverse array of countries, each with its own complex, dynamic, and evolving system, there can be no one-size-fits-all development path. The Thought builds on and further enriches Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development. It represents the latest achievement in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context.
The document discusses the political and economic characteristics of the "China Model" of development. It describes how China has achieved remarkable economic growth while maintaining political autonomy and sovereignty. After Mao Zedong's death, Deng Xiaoping embraced economic reforms and globalization, opening China to foreign trade and investment. This allowed China to benefit from technology and market access while maintaining a centralized authoritarian government controlled by the Communist Party. The model has been viewed positively due to China's success in reducing poverty and maintaining stability, though it also faces challenges from inequality and environmental issues. The rise of the "China Model" is gaining international interest as an alternative to liberal democracy models.
China is the most populous country in the world with over 1.3 billion people. It has the second largest economy and is a one party socialist state led by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. China has a long history dating back over 5,000 years and was the last imperial dynasty until 1911. It became the People's Republic of China after the communist victory in the civil war in 1949 led by Mao Zedong. China has experienced rapid economic growth and development and is now the world's largest exporter and importer of goods.
China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past 30 years, becoming the world's second largest economy. It is also the largest exporter and second largest importer globally. While China and India are often compared, there are important differences in their economic systems and growth drivers. China's growth has been led by large state-owned companies, while India's private sector has played a bigger role. China maintains more state control over its financial system and can direct credit, while India's system is more market-driven. Both countries still have work to do to address issues around development, inequality, environmental protection, and an aging population as they continue growing in the decades ahead.
China has experienced rapid economic growth since adopting more capitalist policies in 1978, but maintains tight authoritarian control politically. Globalization is challenging this model in several ways. It is harder for China to censor foreign media and control the flow of information online and through technology. Major events like earthquakes have led Chinese media to defy propaganda restrictions and report more openly. As globalization increases interconnection and access to outside information, it will be difficult for China to sustain its closed political system long-term.
Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics赵巍 Wei ZHAO
The document discusses perspectives on capitalism in China from sociological theorists. It analyzes China's economic transition and development through a sociological lens, examining the role of the state, market, and society. Some key points made include:
- China has developed a "socialist market economy" with the Communist party playing a major role in mobilizing resources and directing economic growth. This has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty.
- Sociological theorists like Weber, Parsons, Habermas, and Polanyi provide frameworks for understanding the relationship between the economic, political, and social spheres in China's system.
- The state acts as a collective entrepreneur, investing and accumulating capital to drive development while
New Report Exposes Chinas Malign Influence And Corrosion Of Democracy Worldwi...MYO AUNG Myanmar
https://www.iri.org/resource/new-report-exposes-chinas-malign-influence-and-corrosion-democracy-worldwide IRI (INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE) is the premier international democracy-development organization https://youtu.be/XhBUbbQyhxE New Report Exposes China's Malign Influence and Corrosion of Democracy Worldwide You are hereHome > New Report Exposes China's Malign Influence and Corrosion of Democracy Worldwide CHINESE MALIGN INFLUENCEAND THE CORROSION OF DEMOCRACY An Assessment of Chinese Interference in Thirteen Key Countries The report, entitled "Chinese Malign Influence and the Corrosion of Democracy," brings together research by experts from 12 vulnerable democracies — Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Serbia, Ecuador, Zambia, Mongolia, Hungary, The Gambia, Myanmar, Malaysia and the Maldives — and provides local perspectives on how China is impacting the politics and economics of these countries. https://www.iri.org/country/asia/details INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE info@iri.org
Socialism with chinese characteristics and global superpower aspirantM S Siddiqui
In a world comprising a diverse array of countries, each with its own complex, dynamic, and evolving system, there can be no one-size-fits-all development path. The Thought builds on and further enriches Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development. It represents the latest achievement in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context.
This document discusses reforms and globalization in India. It notes that while illiteracy, population, and poverty still exist, India is making progress in areas like education, technology, and economic growth. Literacy rates have increased to 65% from 48% a decade ago. Indians now embrace their role as a rising global power alongside China. Globalization has connected more lives through technology. Indians no longer see affluence or entrepreneurship negatively. A commitment to democracy, social advances, and a new mindset are helping India's standing globally more than specific government policies. The document examines India's shift from an inward-looking past to greater economic openness and participation in global trade and investment.
Governance and the economy in Asia and the United States institutions instrum...Caroline Servat
This document discusses governance and economic development in Asia and the United States. It covers several key points:
1) State capitalism has proven successful for economic development in countries like China, South Korea, and Singapore, but it can lead to corruption, inequality, and reduced innovation over time.
2) Many Western countries and some Asian countries implemented reforms to transition to more democratic governance and market-oriented economies in response to these issues.
3) The US underwent three waves of political, economic and administrative reforms between 1880-2000 to reduce corruption and move away from state capitalism, including breaking up political machines, establishing regulatory agencies, and later privatizing industries.
1. While economic growth has historically enabled societies to improve lives, national policy choices ultimately determine growth. China's success was due to government efforts to restructure and diversify their economy.
2. As China's manufacturing powerhouse faces rising costs, it must move up the value chain, improve quality, and focus on domestic consumption and developing its own brands.
3. China's environmental pollution has global impacts, and its continued development depends on balancing growth with legal, social and environmental sustainability.
Third plenum report by China Trade Winds - extractslevdlc
Here is few extracts of the final part of our report “ Xi Jinping, the new era ” following the highly-anticipated Third Plenum of the XVIII. Congress (from 9 to 12th of November 2013).
It was the missing piece of the puzzle of this country’s leadership until 2022, end of the second five-year legislature under Xi Jinping.
The aim of this brief study is to analyze the results of the Plenum, its significance, and last but not least, the style of this new leadership.
For further details, contact marketing@chinatradewinds.com
2008 Bangkok Chinas Dev Challenges Jan 22ewcslides
The document discusses China's development model of "Sino-capitalism" which differs from Western capitalism in its reliance on informal business networks rather than legal codes, and greater role of the state in guiding capitalist accumulation. Sino-capitalism remains an incomplete transition with the state dominating capital and classes. This state-dominated capitalism harnesses market logic to boost the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy. China's rapid rise as a global economic power brings domestic challenges of inequality and environmental degradation, as well as external challenges of integrating with the global economic system and managing geopolitical tensions.
Economic statecraft in China’s new overseas special economic zones: soft powe...Eric Olander
China’s rapid expansion of economic and political ties with other developing countries has aroused deep concern in the West and Japan. Much of this apprehen- sion focuses on China’s search for natural resources and its ‘no-political-strings- attached’ stance on official finance. Yet despite the popular unease provoked by China’s growing outward engagement, scholars have done relatively little research on the Chinese government’s strategic employment of its economic instruments overseas.1
This document discusses the relationship between international business and politics. It explains that political changes often precede and enable economic changes, using examples from Eastern Europe and Asia. As countries transition to market-driven economies and privatize state assets, new opportunities arise for multinational enterprises. However, different political ideologies and economic systems, such as democracy versus totalitarianism and market versus centrally planned economies, create different environments for international business. The document also examines forms of economic integration like free trade areas, customs unions, and common markets that aim to increase regional trade.
Corruption in China increased dramatically after economic reforms began in 1978. The dual economic system created opportunities for officials to profit privately from public authority. Xi Jinping launched a sweeping anti-corruption campaign in 2012 called "Catching Tigers and Flies" to address this. The campaign prosecuted many high-level officials but faced challenges due to the decentralized power of local authorities and cultural factors like nepotism. While improving transparency, the campaign's long-term success in curbing corruption depends on deeper political reforms.
China has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, transitioning from a centrally planned economy to a more market-based one. It has become a major global economic power, with the world's second largest GDP. This growth was driven by large-scale capital investment, productivity gains from economic reforms, and a high domestic savings rate. However, China still faces economic challenges including overreliance on exports and investment, weak rule of law, and income inequality. While its economy has greatly benefited from international trade, some criticize China's trade practices. Politically, China remains authoritarian with a single-party system and restrictions on dissent.
Ten Year Risk from China to Your Investing – How China Got Where It IsInvestingTips
We see a ten year risk from China to your investing. How did this come about, what are the possible outcomes, and how can you adjust your investing to survive and profit.
https://youtu.be/H2bzwUQHV8s
China has been pursuing its national interests through economic and soft power engagement with emerging countries in a non-aggressive manner. China uses soft power tools like investment, exchange programs, public diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and contributions to multilateral institutions to increase its influence abroad. While China has made progress in utilizing soft power, it still faces limitations and lags behind the United States in some areas like foreign direct investment and foreign aid. China's soft power growth is often exaggerated and it still lacks a coordinated national soft power strategy.
Yahoo China has suffered from many management missteps that have led the company into a downward spiral in China, including the president stepping down after only 42 days and a dissident being arrested for having a Yahoo account, while major programming errors have also hurt the company. The document then discusses various political philosophies like individualism, collectivism, and socialism that influence business environments, and examines challenges international companies face in countries like Russia, China and from regulations like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
The document discusses issues faced by Yahoo China and challenges of operating internationally, including political and management missteps that hurt Yahoo's performance in China. It also covers different political philosophies like individualism, collectivism, and socialism that influence business environments, as well as ethics, human rights, technology, and other topics international companies must navigate.
China has experienced rapid economic growth averaging 9.4% annually over the past 30 years, increasing its GDP from $3.42 trillion in 2007. However, this growth has exacerbated income inequality and caused environmental issues like pollution. Key challenges China faces include a shortage of power infrastructure to support continued growth, a growing wealth gap between urban and rural areas, potential problems in its property market, inefficiencies in state-owned banks, and unemployment despite strong GDP expansion.
Crony capitalism refers to a system in which businesses have close personal relationships with government officials who can use their power to hand out legal permits, tax breaks and other favors that benefit their friends. [1] China is described as the new "crony capitalist" of East Asia, where all major banks and sectors are state-run or state-controlled and private firms have very limited access to finance or new markets. [2] While China has experienced huge economic growth, it has also led to high inequality, monopolies, corruption within state-run sectors, and authoritarian political control that limits dissent. [3] Both advantages and disadvantages of crony capitalism are discussed.
This document provides an overview of international political economy. It discusses key concepts like IPE being the study of relationships between governments and businesses. It outlines three major theoretical perspectives on IPE: liberalism, Marxism, and mercantilism. It also examines some contemporary IPE theories and provides detailed descriptions of the American and Japanese national political economy systems.
The document provides an overview of China's business environment and political system. It discusses China's large population and diverse ethnic groups. Politically, China has a centralized government controlled by the Communist Party, which dominates the legislature, executive branch, and military. The document also summarizes China's economic reforms, growth model, development challenges, and international relations.
China has transitioned to a crony capitalist system where relationships with the government and membership in the Communist Party determine business success, rather than free market competition. Close ties with the state provide access to favorable policies like tax breaks and grants. State-owned enterprises dominate important sectors of the economy and account for the majority of China's largest companies. Many of China's wealthiest individuals are children of high-ranking officials who have become billionaires through business dealings in state-run industries. While some growth has occurred, critics argue cronyism and inequality have increased under this corporate state model.
Choose 1 focal point from each subcategory of practice, educatio.docxbissacr
Choose 1 focal point from each subcategory of practice, education, research and administration and describe how the APRN can provide effective care in end of life management
Using the American nurses association position statement, recommendations for improvement in end of life management focuses on practice, education, research and administration. Listed below are steps that nurses can take to overcome barriers in healthcare practice.
Practice
1. Strive to attain a standard of primary palliative care so that all health care providers have basic knowledge of palliative nursing to improve the care of patients and families.
2. All nurses will have basic skills in recognizing and managing symptoms, including pain, dyspnea, nausea, constipation, and others.
3. Nurses will be comfortable having discussions about death, and will collaborate with the care teams to ensure that patients and families have current and accurate information about the possibility or probability of a patient’s impending death.
4. Encourage patient and family participation in health care decision-making, including the use of advance directives in which both patient preferences and surrogates are identified.
Education
1. Those who practice in secondary or tertiary palliative care will have specialist education and certification.
2. Institutions and schools of nursing will integrate precepts of primary palliative care into curricula.
3. Basic and specialist End-of-Life Nursing Education Consortium (ELNEC) resources will be available.
4. Advocate for additional education in academic programs and work settings related to palliative care, including symptom management, supported decision-making, and end-of-life care, focusing on patients and families.
Research
1. Increase the integration of evidence-based care across the dimensions of end-of-life care.
2. Develop best practices for quality care across the dimensions of end-of-life care, including the physical, psychological, spiritual, and interpersonal.
3. Support the use of evidence-based and ethical care, and support decision-making for care at the end of life.
4. Develop best practices to measure the quality and effectiveness of the counseling and interdisciplinary care patients and families receive regarding end-of-life decision-making and treatments.
5. Support research that examines the relationship of patient and family satisfaction and their utilization of health care resources in end-of-life care choices.
Administration
1. Promote work environments in which the standards for excellent care extend through the patient’s death and into post-death care for families.
2. Encourage facilities and institutions to support the clinical competence and professional development that will help nurses provide excellent, dignified, and compassionate end-of-life care.
3. Work toward a standard of palliative care available to patients and families from the time of diagnosis of a serious illness or a.
CHOICE TOPIC Pick a philosophical topic of your own choosing and re.docxbissacr
CHOICE TOPIC: Pick a philosophical topic of your own choosing and relay your own perspective on that topic giving as much evidence and supporting reasoning as possible.
The assignment should be standard font, double spaced, at least a page and a half with proper citations when appropriate.
.
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This document discusses governance and economic development in Asia and the United States. It covers several key points:
1) State capitalism has proven successful for economic development in countries like China, South Korea, and Singapore, but it can lead to corruption, inequality, and reduced innovation over time.
2) Many Western countries and some Asian countries implemented reforms to transition to more democratic governance and market-oriented economies in response to these issues.
3) The US underwent three waves of political, economic and administrative reforms between 1880-2000 to reduce corruption and move away from state capitalism, including breaking up political machines, establishing regulatory agencies, and later privatizing industries.
1. While economic growth has historically enabled societies to improve lives, national policy choices ultimately determine growth. China's success was due to government efforts to restructure and diversify their economy.
2. As China's manufacturing powerhouse faces rising costs, it must move up the value chain, improve quality, and focus on domestic consumption and developing its own brands.
3. China's environmental pollution has global impacts, and its continued development depends on balancing growth with legal, social and environmental sustainability.
Third plenum report by China Trade Winds - extractslevdlc
Here is few extracts of the final part of our report “ Xi Jinping, the new era ” following the highly-anticipated Third Plenum of the XVIII. Congress (from 9 to 12th of November 2013).
It was the missing piece of the puzzle of this country’s leadership until 2022, end of the second five-year legislature under Xi Jinping.
The aim of this brief study is to analyze the results of the Plenum, its significance, and last but not least, the style of this new leadership.
For further details, contact marketing@chinatradewinds.com
2008 Bangkok Chinas Dev Challenges Jan 22ewcslides
The document discusses China's development model of "Sino-capitalism" which differs from Western capitalism in its reliance on informal business networks rather than legal codes, and greater role of the state in guiding capitalist accumulation. Sino-capitalism remains an incomplete transition with the state dominating capital and classes. This state-dominated capitalism harnesses market logic to boost the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy. China's rapid rise as a global economic power brings domestic challenges of inequality and environmental degradation, as well as external challenges of integrating with the global economic system and managing geopolitical tensions.
Economic statecraft in China’s new overseas special economic zones: soft powe...Eric Olander
China’s rapid expansion of economic and political ties with other developing countries has aroused deep concern in the West and Japan. Much of this apprehen- sion focuses on China’s search for natural resources and its ‘no-political-strings- attached’ stance on official finance. Yet despite the popular unease provoked by China’s growing outward engagement, scholars have done relatively little research on the Chinese government’s strategic employment of its economic instruments overseas.1
This document discusses the relationship between international business and politics. It explains that political changes often precede and enable economic changes, using examples from Eastern Europe and Asia. As countries transition to market-driven economies and privatize state assets, new opportunities arise for multinational enterprises. However, different political ideologies and economic systems, such as democracy versus totalitarianism and market versus centrally planned economies, create different environments for international business. The document also examines forms of economic integration like free trade areas, customs unions, and common markets that aim to increase regional trade.
Corruption in China increased dramatically after economic reforms began in 1978. The dual economic system created opportunities for officials to profit privately from public authority. Xi Jinping launched a sweeping anti-corruption campaign in 2012 called "Catching Tigers and Flies" to address this. The campaign prosecuted many high-level officials but faced challenges due to the decentralized power of local authorities and cultural factors like nepotism. While improving transparency, the campaign's long-term success in curbing corruption depends on deeper political reforms.
China has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, transitioning from a centrally planned economy to a more market-based one. It has become a major global economic power, with the world's second largest GDP. This growth was driven by large-scale capital investment, productivity gains from economic reforms, and a high domestic savings rate. However, China still faces economic challenges including overreliance on exports and investment, weak rule of law, and income inequality. While its economy has greatly benefited from international trade, some criticize China's trade practices. Politically, China remains authoritarian with a single-party system and restrictions on dissent.
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China has been pursuing its national interests through economic and soft power engagement with emerging countries in a non-aggressive manner. China uses soft power tools like investment, exchange programs, public diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and contributions to multilateral institutions to increase its influence abroad. While China has made progress in utilizing soft power, it still faces limitations and lags behind the United States in some areas like foreign direct investment and foreign aid. China's soft power growth is often exaggerated and it still lacks a coordinated national soft power strategy.
Yahoo China has suffered from many management missteps that have led the company into a downward spiral in China, including the president stepping down after only 42 days and a dissident being arrested for having a Yahoo account, while major programming errors have also hurt the company. The document then discusses various political philosophies like individualism, collectivism, and socialism that influence business environments, and examines challenges international companies face in countries like Russia, China and from regulations like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
The document discusses issues faced by Yahoo China and challenges of operating internationally, including political and management missteps that hurt Yahoo's performance in China. It also covers different political philosophies like individualism, collectivism, and socialism that influence business environments, as well as ethics, human rights, technology, and other topics international companies must navigate.
China has experienced rapid economic growth averaging 9.4% annually over the past 30 years, increasing its GDP from $3.42 trillion in 2007. However, this growth has exacerbated income inequality and caused environmental issues like pollution. Key challenges China faces include a shortage of power infrastructure to support continued growth, a growing wealth gap between urban and rural areas, potential problems in its property market, inefficiencies in state-owned banks, and unemployment despite strong GDP expansion.
Crony capitalism refers to a system in which businesses have close personal relationships with government officials who can use their power to hand out legal permits, tax breaks and other favors that benefit their friends. [1] China is described as the new "crony capitalist" of East Asia, where all major banks and sectors are state-run or state-controlled and private firms have very limited access to finance or new markets. [2] While China has experienced huge economic growth, it has also led to high inequality, monopolies, corruption within state-run sectors, and authoritarian political control that limits dissent. [3] Both advantages and disadvantages of crony capitalism are discussed.
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The document provides an overview of China's business environment and political system. It discusses China's large population and diverse ethnic groups. Politically, China has a centralized government controlled by the Communist Party, which dominates the legislature, executive branch, and military. The document also summarizes China's economic reforms, growth model, development challenges, and international relations.
China has transitioned to a crony capitalist system where relationships with the government and membership in the Communist Party determine business success, rather than free market competition. Close ties with the state provide access to favorable policies like tax breaks and grants. State-owned enterprises dominate important sectors of the economy and account for the majority of China's largest companies. Many of China's wealthiest individuals are children of high-ranking officials who have become billionaires through business dealings in state-run industries. While some growth has occurred, critics argue cronyism and inequality have increased under this corporate state model.
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Choose 1 focal point from each subcategory of practice, educatio.docxbissacr
Choose 1 focal point from each subcategory of practice, education, research and administration and describe how the APRN can provide effective care in end of life management
Using the American nurses association position statement, recommendations for improvement in end of life management focuses on practice, education, research and administration. Listed below are steps that nurses can take to overcome barriers in healthcare practice.
Practice
1. Strive to attain a standard of primary palliative care so that all health care providers have basic knowledge of palliative nursing to improve the care of patients and families.
2. All nurses will have basic skills in recognizing and managing symptoms, including pain, dyspnea, nausea, constipation, and others.
3. Nurses will be comfortable having discussions about death, and will collaborate with the care teams to ensure that patients and families have current and accurate information about the possibility or probability of a patient’s impending death.
4. Encourage patient and family participation in health care decision-making, including the use of advance directives in which both patient preferences and surrogates are identified.
Education
1. Those who practice in secondary or tertiary palliative care will have specialist education and certification.
2. Institutions and schools of nursing will integrate precepts of primary palliative care into curricula.
3. Basic and specialist End-of-Life Nursing Education Consortium (ELNEC) resources will be available.
4. Advocate for additional education in academic programs and work settings related to palliative care, including symptom management, supported decision-making, and end-of-life care, focusing on patients and families.
Research
1. Increase the integration of evidence-based care across the dimensions of end-of-life care.
2. Develop best practices for quality care across the dimensions of end-of-life care, including the physical, psychological, spiritual, and interpersonal.
3. Support the use of evidence-based and ethical care, and support decision-making for care at the end of life.
4. Develop best practices to measure the quality and effectiveness of the counseling and interdisciplinary care patients and families receive regarding end-of-life decision-making and treatments.
5. Support research that examines the relationship of patient and family satisfaction and their utilization of health care resources in end-of-life care choices.
Administration
1. Promote work environments in which the standards for excellent care extend through the patient’s death and into post-death care for families.
2. Encourage facilities and institutions to support the clinical competence and professional development that will help nurses provide excellent, dignified, and compassionate end-of-life care.
3. Work toward a standard of palliative care available to patients and families from the time of diagnosis of a serious illness or a.
CHOICE TOPIC Pick a philosophical topic of your own choosing and re.docxbissacr
CHOICE TOPIC: Pick a philosophical topic of your own choosing and relay your own perspective on that topic giving as much evidence and supporting reasoning as possible.
The assignment should be standard font, double spaced, at least a page and a half with proper citations when appropriate.
.
Choice Hotels InternationalOverviewRead the case study, .docxbissacr
Choice Hotels International
Overview
Read the case study,
Choice Hotels International
.
Instructions
Write a fully developed paper in which you: DO NOT WRITE IN 1ST PERSON
Assess the two distinct networking functions.
Analyze the issues Choice is likely to experience as it expands its network to full global reach. Provide a rationale for your answer.
Critique Choice implementing free high-speed Internet access for all guests in its Clarion Hotels and Comfort Suites from the security point of view.
Use at least three quality resources in this assignment. Note: Wikipedia and similar websites do not qualify as quality resources.
.
Choice Theory- Is to choose to engage in delinquent and criminal beh.docxbissacr
Choice Theory- Is to choose to engage in delinquent and criminal behavior after weighing the consequences and benefits of their actions
Classical Criminology
People have free will to choose criminal or conventional behaviors, people choose to commit crime for reasons of greed or personal need, and crime can be controlled only by the fear of criminal sanctions.
1. In 1764, criminologist Cesare Beccaria wrote An Essay on Crimes and Punishments, which set forth classical criminological theory. He argued that the only justified rationale for laws and punishments was the principle of utility.
2. Beccaria believed the basis of society, as well as the origin of punishments and the right to punish, is the social contract. The only legitimate purpose of punishment is special deterrence and general deterrence.
3. Beccaria believed the best way to prevent and deter crime was to: • Enact laws that are clear, simple, and unbiased, and that reflect the consensus of the population. • Educate the public. • Eliminate corruption from the administration of justice. • Reward virtue.
4. Real-world drawbacks of Beccaria’s theory are: • Not all offenders are alike, juveniles are treated the same as adults. • Similar crimes are not always as similar as they might appear,first-time offenders are treated the same as repeat offenders.
I don't pay for cover pages
1 APA style page
12 pt font
I gave a breakdown of what the teacher is looking for
.
CHM130LLLab 2Measurements Accuracy and PrecisionName __.docxbissacr
CHM130LL
Lab 2
Measurements: Accuracy and Precision
Name : _____________________________
A. Data Tables
Data Table 1 (12 points)
Measurement
Data
(1) Length of aluminum plastic packet
(2) Height of aluminum plastic packet
(3) Temperature of faucet water
(3) Temperature of ice water
(5) Volume of water in 10-mL
graduated cylinder
(6) Volume of water in 50-mL
graduated cylinder
Data Table 2 (10 points)
Measurement
Data
(1) Inside diameter of 50-mL
graduated cylinder
(2) Height of 50-mL graduated cylinder
(3) Water temperature
(4) Initial volume of water in 50-mL
graduated cylinder
10.0 mL
(5) Mass of water in the 50-mL
graduated cylinder
10.0 g
(6) Volume of water and aluminum shot in 50-mL graduated cylinder
(7) Mass of aluminum shot (given on outside of packet)
B. Insert the picture of the plastic packet containing aluminum shots with student’s name and MEID (25 points)
C. Follow-Up Questions (Show all calculations for full credits)
Part I
1. Convert the length and height measurements for the packet that contains the aluminum shot from units of cm to units of mm using the unit-factor method. (10 points)
2. Convert the temperature measurements for the faucet water and the ice water from oC to oF, using the following equation: oF =1.8(oC) + 32. (10 points)
3. Convert the volumes of the water in the 10-mL and 50-mL graduated cylinders from mL to L, using the unit-factor method. (10 points)
4. Looking at your measurements for the volumes of water in the 10-mL and 50-mL graduated cylinders, are your values identical? Discuss at least two reasons why the measurements were not identical. (5 points)
Part II
5. Calculate the volume of the 50mL graduated cylinder using your measurements of diameter and height, using the formula V= πr2h (r=½ diameter). This is your experimental value. (10 points)
6. Assuming the accepted value of the volume of the graduated cylinder is 50.00 mL, calculate the percent error of your volume calculation, using the following formula and the experimental value calculated in question 5: (10 points)
Percent Error
=
|
accepted value - experimental value
accepted value
|
x
100
7. Calculate the mass of 10ml of water in the graduated cylinder using 1/5 the volume calculated in question 5, the density of water of 1.00 g/mL and this given the formula: (10 points)
Density
=
mass
volume
8. Using 10.0 g as the accepted value for the mass of the water, and the mass calculated in #7 above as the experimental value, calculate the percent error of your mass calculation, using the same formula as in #6 above. (10 points)
9. Calculate the volume of aluminum shot added to the graduated cylinder, using the information from Data Table 2 in the following formula: (10 points)
Volume of water and aluminum shot in 50-mL graduated cylinder(#6) – Initial volume of water in 50-mL graduated cylinder (#4) = volume of aluminum shot
10. Calculate the experimental value for density of the aluminum shot based on its mass (given on.
Chocolates by Jacki has provided information relating to its curre.docxbissacr
Chocolates by Jacki has provided information relating to its current year. The Controller has asked you to complete a First-Stage Allocation to Activity Cost Pools. Use the information included in the Excel Simulation and the Excel functions described below to complete the task.
· Cell Reference: Allows you to refer to data from another cell in the worksheet. From the Excel Simulation below, if in a blank cell, “=B7” was entered, the formula would output the result from cell B7, or 400,000 in this example.
· Absolute Reference: Allows you to maintain the original cell reference when a formula is copied to another cell. The cell reference is “locked” by putting a dollar sign ($) before the column and row references. By default a cell reference is relative, so when you copy a formula to another cell the values update based on a relative reference. For example, if you copy the formula “=B8+B9” from cell C1 to cell C2, the formula in cell C2 will relatively update to be “=B9+B10” since the copied formula moved down one cell, the formula cell references also moved down one cell. Conversely, by adding the absolute cell reference “locks” to the equation, the formula will not change when copied to any other cell. For example, “=$B$8+$B$9” written in cell C1 is copied to cell C2, the formula in cell C2 will remain “=$B$8+$B$9”. You can also use a mixed cell reference by only “locking” the column or row only ($B8 or B$8) which locks that specific column or row and the other reference becomes a relative reference and “moves” with the formula as its copied to another cell. For example, if you copy the formula “=B$8+B9” from cell C1 to cell C2, the formula in cell C2 will update to be “=B$8+B10” since the copied formula moved down one cell, the formula cell relative references also moved down one cell, but the absolute “locked” reference remained the same.
· Basic Math functions: Allows you to use the basic math symbols to perform mathematical functions. You can use the following keys: + (plus sign to add), - (minus sign to subtract), * (asterisk sign to multiply), and / (forward slash to divide). From the Excel Simulation below, if in a blank cell “=B18+B19” was entered, the formula would add the values from those cells and output the result, or 250,000 in this example. If using the other math symbols the result would output an appropriate answer for its function.
· SUM function: Allows you to refer to multiple cells and adds all the values. You can add individual cell references or ranges to utilize this function. From the Excel Simulation below, if in a blank cell “=SUM(B13,B14,B15)” was entered, the formula would output the result of adding those three separate cells, or 375,000 in this example. Similarly, if in a blank cell “=SUM(B13:B15)” was entered, the formula would output the same result of adding those cells, except they are expressed as a range in the formula, and the result would be 375,000 in this example.
Quest.
Chloe1a. This study uses qualitative meta-synthesis to take a.docxbissacr
Chloe
1a. This study uses qualitative meta-synthesis to take a holistic approach to innovation in information systems companies. The article stated that the researchers used qualitative meta-synthesis that analyzed over 370 different articles, journals or other written forums, which required a severe amount of time to read a review and correlate to each other to show a holistic approach. Some of the artifacts used were, “Fear of technological complexity”, “Data collection and processing tools”, and others in Table 1 (Lawrence, 2013).
1b. Information systems innovation is difficult. Not only just systems such as Facebook and Google but the backbone of systems that run corporations such as FedEx and UPS. Changing the users’ experience where it is not just easy to use, but functional has always been difficult such as when we think back to how clunky MySpace and AOL were. This article is about how cultures in information systems companies need mediation to generate innovation, which is directly applicable to how to generate innovative environments.
2a. This research focused on how social media could or could not enhance innovation. The researcher’s hypothesis was that a new connection + novel idea = innovation. In order to connect people, the researcher’s used social media due to its proclivity in today’s world. There were 31 owner-managers from the United Kingdom that signed up and 42 interviews that were conducted. The result of those interviews were over 500 pages of transcripts that required combing through, but first as binned by coding into nine different categories. Overall there was an extensive amount of qualitative research conducted is considerably larger than most qualitative studies.
2b. This article specifically applies to my topic of how to generate innovative environments because it takes a 21st-century approach to innovation, which is ironic, and assess how to use social media to generate innovative ideas. Though overall the discovery is that social media is a difficult platform to meet strangers, there is an avenue such as like type communities on social media that would work better.
References:
Lawrence, C. (2013). A Holistic Narrative of Culture’s Mediation of Information Systems Innovation: A
Qualitative Meta-Synthesis. Journal of Global Information Technology Management, 31–52.
Berne, D. F., Coda, R., Krakauer, P., & Donaire, D. (2019). The innovation challenge in micro and small enterprises
(MSE): An exploratory study at São Paulo metropolitan region. Studii de Ştiintă Şi Cultură, 15(4), 235–252. https://doi.org/10.1108/INMR-03-2019-0031
PAUL:
Part one:
Article one: The article chosen discusses how sales professionals perceive leadership. Interviews were conducted with both sales leaders and salespeople. What was found was that the salespeople overwhelmingly supported specific leadership traits that contributed to their overall performance. The four areas covered were coaching, collaborat.
Chinese railroad workers began to contribute to the Canadian railr.docxbissacr
Chinese railroad workers began to contribute to the Canadian railroad in 1800, but they paid a lot of labour and even life with low wages. Now, many bronze men in the Roger's Centre in Toronto are reminding people that many Chinese workers died while building the railroad, they were overworked and their salaries were low (China town concern group, 2016, para.1). However, these hard and lovely people have not received the respect they deserve in such a difficult situation. After they built the Canadian Pacific Railway, one of Canada's outstanding engineering projects, they were discriminatorily levied a head tax on Chinese workers. As the Frey (2017) suggests, the racist law imposed a "head tax" on Chinese immigrants from 1885 to 1923, acknowledging that the abuse of Chinese immigrants is a long process, and it is necessary to fight against historical inertia and racist laws (para.18). Over time, people's awareness of racism has increased, and they have begun to reflect on previous mistakes and modify some wrong regulations and measures. The websites show the unequal treatment and compensation of many Chinese railroad workers.
Reference
China town concern group. (2016, April 28). “Now and Then: Chinese Railroad Workers Memorial”. https://chinatownconcerngroup.wordpress.com/2016/05/13/now-and-then-chinese-railroad-workers-memorial/
Frey, W. (2017). Chinese workers integral in building Canada's first megaproject. Construct Connect. https://canada.constructconnect.com/Leaders2017/chinese-workers.html
.
CHIROPRACTIC & MANUAL THERAPIESClar et al. Chiropractic & .docxbissacr
CHIROPRACTIC & MANUAL THERAPIES
Clar et al. Chiropractic & Manual Therapies 2014, 22:12
http://www.chiromt.com/content/22/1/12
SYSTEMATIC REVIEW Open Access
Clinical effectiveness of manual therapy for the
management of musculoskeletal and non-
musculoskeletal conditions: systematic review
and update of UK evidence report
Christine Clar1, Alexander Tsertsvadze1, Rachel Court1, Gillian Lewando Hundt2, Aileen Clarke1 and Paul Sutcliffe1*
Abstract
Background: This systematic review updated and extended the “UK evidence report” by Bronfort et al. (Chiropr
Osteopath 18:3, 2010) with respect to conditions/interventions that received an ‘inconclusive’ or ‘negative’ evidence
rating or were not covered in the report.
Methods: A literature search of more than 10 general medical and specialised databases was conducted in August
2011 and updated in March 2013. Systematic reviews, primary comparative studies and qualitative studies of
patients with musculoskeletal or non-musculoskeletal conditions treated with manual therapy and reporting clinical
outcomes were included. Study quality was assessed using standardised instruments, studies were summarised, and
the results were compared against the evidence ratings of Bronfort. These were either confirmed, updated, or new
categories not assessed by Bronfort were added.
Results: 25,539 records were found; 178 new and additional studies were identified, of which 72 were systematic
reviews, 96 were randomised controlled trials, and 10 were non-randomised primary studies. Most ‘inconclusive’ or
‘moderate’ evidence ratings of the UK evidence report were confirmed. Evidence ratings changed in a positive
direction from inconclusive to moderate evidence ratings in only three cases (manipulation/mobilisation [with
exercise] for rotator cuff disorder; spinal mobilisation for cervicogenic headache; and mobilisation for
miscellaneous headache). In addition, evidence was identified on a large number of non-musculoskeletal conditions
not previously considered; most of this evidence was rated as inconclusive.
Conclusions: Overall, there was limited high quality evidence for the effectiveness of manual therapy. Most reviewed
evidence was of low to moderate quality and inconsistent due to substantial methodological and clinical diversity.
Areas requiring further research are highlighted.
Keywords: Clinical effectiveness, Manual therapy, Systematic review, Musculoskeletal, Bronfort
Background
Manual therapy is a non-surgical type of conservative
management that includes different skilled hands/fingers-
on techniques directed to the patient’s body (spine and
extremities) for the purpose of assessing, diagnosing,
and treating a variety of symptoms and conditions [1-4].
Manual therapy constitutes a wide variety of different
* Correspondence: [email protected]
1Populations, Evidence and Technologies, Division of Health Sciences,
Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, England
Full list of author info.
Chinese Society 中国社会What are the social voices in China.docxbissacr
Chinese Society
中国社会
What are the social voices in China?
Tradition
Confucianism
Revolution
Communism, Maoism
Reform (Current)
Socialism with Chinese Characteristics?
Capitalism?
Deng Xiaoping Thought?
Harmonious Society (since 2005)
What are the components in Chinese society?
Danwei
Work unit
Guanxi
Connections
Family
One child, two childe
How has Chinese society changed?
Time
Space
Money
Commodification
Landscape
Self
Sex
What are the paths to success?
Mao’s China
Red- politics, White - education
Army, marriage
Deng’s China
Golden - business
To get rich is glorious
Redefining China’s Families
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/interactives/chinafamilies/
How has the family in China changed?
Young and Restless in China
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/youngchina/
What are the lives of people like ?
Hutong Old Beijing
10
PSY 345: Social Psychology
McAuliff
Personal Application Paper
PERSONAL APPLICATION PAPER
In addition to reading and thinking about the concepts covered in the text, an important part of the
learning process includes applying these concepts to your own life and experiences. To facilitate
this process, a personal application paper must be uploaded on Moodle no later than 10am on
Monday, May 11. The paper should be typed (12 characters/inch font), three to five pages in
length, and double-spaced with one inch margins. Late papers will not be accepted and
students not turning in papers will receive a 0. The personal application paper will count
for 25% of your final grade.
For the paper, students should select one or two central topics discussed during the semester and
write about how the topic(s) is relevant to you and your life. For example, for the chapter on
prejudice, you might write about a time you directly or indirectly experienced some form of
prejudice. Alternatively, you could analyze a television commercial with an eye toward the material
covering the use of persuasion to increase compliance. Remember, this assignment is intended to
help you recognize how the material covered in class is personally relevant, as well as to
encourage you to think critically about the concepts presented instead of passively accepting them
as truths. Thus it is acceptable (and commendable) to include in your paper a discussion of the
reasons why you agree/disagree with what the author is saying. To reiterate, each paper must
have the following two components: a review (including proper citation) of the concept from the text
to be discussed; and second, your thoughts/feelings on this topic and a discussion of how it applies
to your life including whether you agree/disagree with what the author has said.
PSY 345: Social Psychology
McAuliff
Personal Application Paper Grading Form
_____ Introduction (2)
_____ Statement of interest (1)
_____ Explained (1)
_____ Description of Social Psychological Concept, Theory, or Research (.
China’s geography
中国地理
China’s physiography
Regional Geography
The same area as the U.S.
1.39 Billion People, 0.3% growth
90 percent live in the Eastern half
NORTHMandarinCoal; wheat;
Heavy industrySOUTHCantonesecotton; rice;
light industryWESTMinoritiesOil;
Agriculture
4
Figure 11-12
Title:
Landscape Regions of China
Caption:
The term China proper denotes the densely populated, culturally Han Chinese areas to the east of the blue line. The Yangtze Valley divides China proper into two general areas. Immediately to the north is the large fertile area of the North China Plain, bisected by the Huang He (or Yellow) River. To the west is the Loess Plateau, an upland area of soil derived from wind-deposited silt after the prehistoric glacial period, about 15,000 years ago.
China/USA
What are the characteristics of China’s territory?
Size of US 9,600,000 sq km
1.39 billion people
mid latitude
Continental
West dry, mountainous
East coastal humid
Vast in territory, rich in resources
Land is scarce, people are many
How do the mountains, rivers and basins combine in China?
Three tiers
SW mountains Tibetan Plateau >3000m
Himalayas, Kun Lun, Karakoram, Tian Shan
Basins and Plateaus 1000-3000m
Tarim Basin, Junggar Basin, Mongolian Plateau (Ordos),
Great Xingan, Chang Bai
Loess Plateau, Sichuan Basin, Yunnan Plateau
South China Hills (Wuyi)
Lowlands <500m
North China Plain, Northeast Plain, Deltas
Karakoram mountains
Tibetan plateau
Everest Chomolongma
Sichuan
Loess plateau
Guangdong
North China
South China
SW - Yunnan
Yellow River - West
Yellow River - East
Yangzi Basin
Yangzi River
Three Gorges Dam
Electrical power
Flood control?
Earthquake
Silt in lake
Aquatic habitat
2 million people moved
Physical environment
Climate
11_04.JPG
18
Figure 11-04
Title:
Flooding on the North China Plain
Caption:
Major flooding, sometimes inundating large sections of the North China Plain, has been a historical problem with the Huang He River. Severe droughts can also plague the same region. Extensive dikes have been built along much of the river to protect the countryside from flooding, as seen in this photo taken near the historical city of Kaifeng. (Yang Xiuyun/ChinaStock Photo Library)
11_05.JPG
19
Figure 11-05
Title:
Denuded Hillslopes in China
Caption:
Because of the need to clear forests for wood products and agricultural lands, China's mountain slopes have long been deforested. Without forest cover, soil erosion is a serious issue. (Bob Sacha/Corbis)
11_07.JPG
20
Figure 11-07
Title:
Coal-Fired Power Plant in China
Caption:
A coal-fired power plant emits large quantities of pollution in northwestern China. As China industrializes, it is building many such plants, damaging local air quality and contributing to global warming. (Natalie Behring/OnAsia.com)
Environmental Challenges
21
China’s population
中国人口
Current stats
http://www.prb.org/
Population Reference Bureau.
China’s reliance on coal epitomizes the central single energy .docxbissacr
China’s reliance on coal epitomizes the central “single energy dilemma” by being dependent upon oil heavily over the last decade. China became a net coal importer in 2009. They have multiple sources that supplies the country in proximity; specifically, Australia, Russia, and Indonesia to name a couple. China is the “second largest economy and destination of foreign direct investment” (Sarah Ladislaw, 2014). China due to the heavy growth must use more energy in order to support the growth. Another source stated that China also imported 5.4 million barrels per day of crude and 706 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2012 alone. This contributes to the “single energy dilemma” because China seemingly is dependent on imported oils due to the amount of growth that they are experiencing.
In my personal assessment it is likely that China can move away from and off goal due to the development and interest in shale gas which is an alternative to coal. China used 10.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2013 which accounted for one third of global oil demand. Due to shale gas being developed China is rethinking their relationships with the Middle East and North Africa. Their dependence on Middle East supplies continues to grow so there needs to be another option for a country who grows ten percent per decade. There are other avenues other than the Middle East. For example, China has been looking into resources closer to home such as central Asian countries for oil. In conclusion China can move away from and off coal with the development of great relationships closer to home.
Sarah Ladislaw, M. L. (2014).
New Energy, New Geopolitics.
Bradshaw, M. (2013).
Global Energy Dilemmas.
.
chinese civilization essay question text 2-3 pages Cours.docxbissacr
chinese civilization essay question text
2-3 pages
Course Syllabus
Jump to Today
Chinese 10: Chinese Civilization
Instructor:
Dr. Jingyu Xue
Email:
[email protected]
Class Hours:
W 3:45-6:55 pm, Room R219
Office Hours:
before and after class, or by appointment
COURSE DESCRIPTION:
This course traces the development of Chinese civilization, one of the world’s oldest continuous civilizations, from Neolithic times down to the present. It covers the study of Chinese geography, philosophy, religion, political environment, social relations, family and gender roles, literature, art and drama. Classes will be a combination of lecture and discussion, and students are expected to participate in classroom discussion in order to better understand the rich heritage and full complexity of Chinese culture.
This class will be taught entirely in English. No prior knowledge of Chinese language or culture is required.
TEXTBOOK:
All required readings will be posted on Canvas.
Recommended textbook:
Ebrey, Patricia.
The Cambridge Illustrated History of China, 2nd
edition.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES:
After the completion of this course, students will be able to perform the following tasks:
Describe the major geographic features of China.
Describe the historical contributions of important people in Chinese history.
Explain at least two aspects of Chinese culture and aesthetic tradition.
Analyze various religious influences in China.
Compare/ contrast the differences between the Western and Chinese cultures in family, artistic, and philosophical values.
REQUIREMENTS:
Attendance is mandatory and factored into your participation grade. A student who arrives more than 10 minutes late or leaves more than 10 minutes early will be marked as half-absence. More than 1 unexcused absence will adversely affect your participation grade (10 points out of 100 will be subtracted for each absence). Any student who is absent 3 times in a row will be dropped from the class. An appropriate document is required for all excused absences.
All required readings will be posted on Canvas
. Students are expected to complete reading the assigned texts before coming to each class. It is very important to keep up with the weekly reading assignments and come to class with your textbooks and notes. By doing so, you will be better prepared to participate in class discussion
Active and informed participation in class discussion is required. The final grade can be raised or lowered a few points based on participation. Also, answers to all the exam questions will be addressed during class lectures and discussion. Please be sure to pay close attention and take careful notes. Please turn off all cell phones, pagers and other electronic devices during our class sessions.
Academic Honesty
. All written assignments must be original work put in an individual student’s own words. They can never be copied from another student,.
Chinas first emperor, Qin, unified the different territories and st.docxbissacr
China's first emperor, Qin, unified the different territories and states into one empire. Discuss the importance of "standardization" (coins, stamps, language, etc.) in that unification.
Need at least two sources minimum and all sources need to be cited.
Minimum 300 words, maximum 500 words.
.
Chinas Great Wall Please respond to the following, using sources.docxbissacr
China's Great Wall" Please respond to the following, using sources under the Explore heading as the basis of your response:
Describe two (2) specific aspects about the Great Wall of China, such as facts about its size, length, purposes, varied materials, labor force, and its phases of construction. Consider the various purposes of such a wall and its impact for good or bad, and compare the Chinese wall in this respect to some specific wall of more modern times.
Compare and contrast the Great Wall of China with The Tomb and Terra Cotta Warriors of Qin Shihuangdi. Which is his greatest legacy?
Or, take the opposite approach and present the case that neither was Qin Shihuangdi’s greatest legacy.
Explore
China and Its Great Wall
•Chapter 7 (pp. 212-213, 220), early phases, (p. 605) later phase
•Explore wall interactively at http://www.panoramas.dk/7-wonders/great-wall.html
•Video at http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/other-shows/videos/discovery-atlas-china-revealed-the-great-wall.htm
•UNESCO article at http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/438
•“China’s Wall Less Great in View from Space” article at http://www.nasa.gov/vision/space/workinginspace/great_wall.html
.
China1. Assess and include transcultural beliefs including l.docxbissacr
China
1. Assess and include transcultural beliefs including language, religious practices, socioeconomic status, end-of-life practices, dietary preferences, risky behaviors
2. Identify healthcare behaviors (i.e. nontraditional therapies)
3. Identify challenges and barriers to healthcare and outcomes related to these challenges
4. Develop an evidence-based plan that can be used to improve healthcare outcomes and access to healthcare (including use of IT systems, interdisciplinary members, etc.) for your selected culture. Provide supporting data from peer-reviewed articles
.
APA formatted, 2-page paper
Minimum of 3 references within 5 years
.
China, also known as the Peoples Republic of China or PRC, is a cou.docxbissacr
China, also known as the People's Republic of China or PRC, is a country located in the east of Asia. It is the largest Asian country and has the biggest population in the world at around 1.4 billion. Its ruling and founding political party is called the
Communist Party
wherein the head of state is the President, elected by the National People's Congress. He supervises the state council which consists of four vice premiers and the heads of ministries and commissions.
Although Human rights are exercised in this country, a sample of which is the freedom of speech, it is not freely implemented, since it is limited and firmly restricted by specific regulations and laws. This essay will tackle the restriction of freedom of speech in China.
Limited Freedom of Expression
Freedom of expression is the right to convey one’s opinions and thoughts without fear of being punished by the country's government. And although a lot of countries are exercising freedom of speech, some countries like China don't have this as one of their basic human rights.
As a sample, during the 2008 Summer Olympics, the Chinese government agreed to release permits allowing the people to protest in specific areas designed as protest parks in Beijing, but most of the applications sent to the government were either refused, banned or withheld and the police authorities even apprehended the people who applied for permits. If you are looking for essay examples, for example, a
freedom of speech persuasive essay
, it would impossible to find an essay that cites controversial issues. This is because access to web pages considered by the authorities of China as "threatening" or "risky" to the Communist Party are blocked on the internet.
On the brighter side, The Chinese government is spending huge amounts of money on catching and blocking not only web pages that advertise political change within the country, but also websites which may have violence and pornography. According to the Constitution of the People's Republic of China, Chinese citizens can enjoy the freedom of the press and freedom of speech.
However, these kinds of freedom are not institutionally protected. Public speeches that consist of forbidden subjects that can have a huge impact on the people could result in a penalty by the government, and that can include criminal sentences.
As a country ruled by
communism
, it does not accept any disapproval or protest from its people, and other parties defying the government and criticizing them are at risk of persecution. As a Chinese citizen, you are not allowed to freely use social media and have access to western news since it is also controlled by the government.
Other Restrictions
Aside from the government's restriction on freedom of speech, there are other limitations and regulations as well, such as on the administration of publishing and radio and television administration. According to the constitution regarding the administration of publication, .
china & USA ----Food curlture1 follow news story, and related curr.docxbissacr
china & USA ----Food curlture
1 follow news story, and related current events, for the entire semester, using diverse global news sources.
2 utilize diverse reference materials and peer reviewed academic journal articles across disciplines
3 present and explanation of research three times during the semester news report days.
NEWS report presentation rubric
outline
completion
format
detail
source list
cotent
accuracy&depth of research
connection to texts&class discussions
questions raised for further research
significant contribution to group
diverse sources
slant/bias considered or acknowledged
quality of sources
style
pace&volume
clarity
creativity
enthusiasm
.
Children’s literature is often categorized into fairy tales .docxbissacr
Children’s literature is often categorized into
fairy tales
(featuring elements such as magic, mermaids, or unicorns),
myths
(based on a religion or belief system, such as Greek mythology), or
legends
(potentially based on real people or events but largely exaggerated, such as Robin Hood). Often, these types of stories, in addition to entertaining, have a moral lesson and can teach the reader about the historical and social climate at the time they were written.
What are some contemporary fairytales, myths, or legends? Give some examples. How do these reflect current values and social issues? How have fairy tales, legends, and myths changed over time? What can we learn about a society’s history and social customs based on the tales that were written in a certain period?
.
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9
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ChinaThe Third RevolutionXi Jinping and the New Chinese Sta.docx
1. China:
The Third Revolution
Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State
Elizabeth Economy
Elizabeth Economy, PhD
Council on Foreign Relations:
C. V. Starr senior fellow
Director for Asia studies
Hoover Institution of Stanford University
Visiting Fellow
She is an acclaimed author and expert on Chinese domestic and
foreign policy, writing on topics ranging from China's
environmental challenges to its role in global governance.
BA – Swarthmore; MA – Stanford; PhD – University of
Michigan
Primary Theses
1. Xi Jinping has steered politics and economics towards
repression, state control, and confrontation
Xi Jinping has used his power to reassert dominance of the
Communist Party and of his own position within it
As part of the campaign against corruption, he has purged
potential rivals
He has executed sweeping reorganization of the People’s
Liberation Army to ensure loyalty of the military to the party
and to him personally
2. Mr. Xi has imprisoned supporters of Western liberal reform and
stamped out criticism of the party and government in the media
and online
He has created a surveillance state to monitor discontent and
deviance.
China increasingly controls business as an arm of state power
Made in China 2025 plan uses subsidies and protection to create
world leadership in ten industries including aviation, tech &
energy
Belt and Road Initiative subsidizes infrastructure development
in Asia and Africa in return for Chinese trade agreements
c. Regional production chains or production networks are
the mechanism by which China influences Asian
economies and integrates itself with the global
economy.
Enables higher degree of specialization and integration
Facilitates exploitation of scale and scope economies
Ideologically, Chinese path is captured in the “Chinese Dream”
The Third Revolution
The Rejuvenation of the Great Chinese Nation
Common Factors that Explain Takeoff
3. Openness to trade and investment – higher than rest of world
Strong Export Demand in advanced industrial economy
Increasing intra-regional trade
High Domestic Savings & Investment Rates
Strengthened physical and digital infrastructure
Improved quality of human capital
Active Government Involvement in Economy
Openness to trade
Share of Asian trade as % total world trade increasing at
expense of European and Russian trade
North American trade relatively stable.
China: export partners in 2016, by export value
(in billion yuan)
United States
4. “…other than trade and FDI (foreign direct investment),
regional production chains or production networks became a
mechanism by which Asian economies tangibly influenced each
other as well as integrated in a market-led manner. As barriers
to the movement of goods, services and factors of production
are dropped further, Asian economies would integrate more with
each other as well as with the global economy.” Das, p. 13
Enables higher degree of specialization and integration
Facilitates exploitation of scale and scope economies
China’s Rise as a Regional Economic Power
Pre-1978 era (Mao Zedong: 1949-76)
Collectivisation (1950-59)
Great Leap Forward (1958-62) – Rapid Industrialization
Widespread distrust of neighboring Asian countries
1978 – 1992 (Deng Xiaoping)
Strategy of softening and widening the strict Communist
message – key to crucial to China’s economic revival
Small scale privatization of state businesses; shift to regional
govt
Remain passive in exerting regional influence and not being
anxious to assume or assert leadership in regional affairs
(bayao dangtou: “not seeking leadership”
1992 – 2002 (Jiang Zemin)
5. Socialism with Chinese characteristics” – moving socialist
market economy
Chinese economy became more diverse
Markets gradually attracted foreign investment
Peaceful foreign policy
2002 – 2012 (Hu Jintao)
Re-introduced state control over key economic sectors
Socialist Harmonious Society: Crackdown on social
disturbances and focus on income inequality and cronyism
Soft power in international relations while quietly building
economic power in Latin America, Africa
Oversaw China through global financial crisis
2012 – present (Xi Jinping)
Get government out of resource allocation: Keep the SOE’s,
but make them more efficient
“decisive” role of market forces in allocating resources
Government’s functions:
Macroeconomic management
Market regulation
Public service delivery
Supervision of society
Environmental protection
Belt and Road Initiative: Infrastructure
Connectivity: seamless connection of rail,
road, and sea
6. Xi’s strategy: Public/Private Partnership
Belt and Road Initiative
https://youtu.be/EvXROXiIpvQ
By sector, the bulk of Chinese investments has gone into
energy, transport, and real estate. The three sectors accounted
for 78 percent of China’s cumulative investment and
construction contracts in Asean countries from 2005 to the first
half of 2017
Focus: East and Southeast Asia
China
NIEs - Newly industrialized economies
Hong Kong, SAR (special administrative region)
Republic of Korea
Singapore
Taiwan
ASEAN – Association of South East Asian Nations
Indonesia Thailand
Malaysia Singapore
Philippines Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos,
Vietnam
7. Japan
Hong Kong
Singapore
Korea
Taiwan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Chapter 2: Heart of Darkness:
Consolidation of Political Power Under Xi Jingping
Primary Theses:
1.
President Xi Jinping is poised to rule China indefinitely after
Chinese lawmakers in March 2018 passed changes to the
country's constitution abolishing presidential term limits.
Since Xi assumed leadership of China's Communist Party in
2012, he has rapidly consolidated power to levels not seen since
the era of Mao Zedong. The constitutional change officially
allows him to remain in office after the end of his second term
in 2023.
Xi Jingping is committed to enforcing and extending political
reforms that were initiated in 2013 based on the following
principles:
Sanctity and credibility of the Maoist era (1949 -76)
b. Recognition of the achievements of Deng Xiaoping (1978-
8. 92)
Family-planning initiative
Decentralization of economic management and flexible state
control of economic growth
Establishment of free trade zones to encourage export market
Chinese military must be capable of fighting and winning wars
China’s place in the world is as a global power
Political Reforms to Achieve the Agenda
Political Power (pps. 25 - 29)
Promote officials he knows and trusts
Reorganization of the Chinese military, with generals loyal to
Xi Jinping
Weakening of the Communist Youth League to weaken pro-
Western elements and to identify party loyalists
2. Anti Corruption Campaign (pps. 29 – 37)
Anti-Bribery
Access to good doctors quickly
Housing in less polluted parts of the city
Overlook violations in food/industrial safety
Access to schools
Expense Accounts and Display of Wealth Discouraged
Impact
a strategic opportunity for Ji to acquire power. Without using
9. the anti-corrupt campaign to acquire power to get rid of his
enemies, he could not have amassed so much power today
Means no secondary power base can develop to threaten Xi –
serving as a bureaucrat is “lowly”
Impact
Re-inforces everyone’s belief that there IS major corruption
Invites possibility of backlash
“The campaign has produced pockets of highly discontented
officials: retired leaders whose power has been diminished,
officals and businesspeople who are frustrated with new
spending restrictions, and legal officials and political reformers
who are concerned about the lack of transparency and the rule
of law in the way the anticorruption campaign is being
prosecuted.” (p. 34)
Rejection of Western cultural and ideological influences:
Document 9
Constitutionalism
Universal values
Civil society
Neoliberalism and market economics
Freedom of the press
Reassessing (scholarly research) on China’s history
Use of Neoclassical economics and Enlightenment theories
(Rights of Man) as a standard of judging China’s progress
Rejection of Western cultural and ideological influence
Document 9 (2013)
The Seven Noteworthy Problems
10. Promoting Western Constitutional Democracy: An attempt to
undermine the current leadership and the "socialism with
Chinese characteristics" system of governance. (Including the
separation of powers, the multi-party system, general elections,
and independent judiciaries.)
Promoting “universal values” in an attempt to weaken the
theoretical foundations of the Party’s leadership. (That “the
West’s values are the prevailing norm for all human
civilization”, that “only when China accepts Western
(Enlightenment – “rights of man” values will it have a future”.)
Promoting civil society in an attempt to dismantle the ruling
party’s social foundation. (i.e. that individual rights are
paramount and ought to be immune to obstruction by the state.)
Promoting Neoliberalism, attempting to change China’s Basic
Economic System. (i.e. unrestrained economic liberalization,
complete privatization, and total marketization.)
Promoting the West’s idea of journalism and freedom of the
press, challenging China’s principle that the media and
publishing system should be subject to Party discipline.
Promoting historical nihilism, i.e., reassessing (scholarly
research) on China’s history. For example to deny the scientific
and guiding value of Mao Zedong thought.)
Questioning Reform and China’s Commitment to Chinese
socialism/state capitalism (For example, saying “We have
deviated from our Socialist orientation.”)
Use of Surveillance to Maintain Social Control
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ5LnY21Hgc – Wall St.
Journal
12. Abstract
As China implements reforms under the “new normal,”
maintaining stability in the labor market is a
priority. The country’s demography and labor dynamics are
changing, after benefitting in past decades
from ample cheap labor. So far, the labor market appears to be
resilient, even as growth slows, driven
in part by expansion of the services sector. Migrant flows and
possible labor hoarding in overcapacity
sectors may also help explain this. Yet, while the latter two
factors help serve as shock absorbers—
contributing to labor market stability in the short term—if they
persist, they may delay the needed
adjustment process, contributing to an inefficient allocation of
resources and curtailing productivity
gains. This paper quantifies to what extent structural trends and
the reform pace affect employment
growth under the new normal. Delays in reform implementation
would weaken growth prospects in
the medium term, running the risk that job creation will fall
below policy targets, leading to labor
market pressures in the future. In contrast, successful transition
might require faster reforms, including
in the overcapacity and state-owned enterprise sectors,
supported by well targeted social safety nets.
JEL Classification Numbers: E1, E2, J1,J2, J3, J6
Keywords: China, Labor Markets, Unemployment, Migration,
Mobility
Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: [email protected];
[email protected]; [email protected]
1 We are grateful for the assistance of Sung Eun Jung and Lesa
Yee. Qin Li provided data and research assistance in the
estimates of the unemployment rate, based on various labor
13. surveys used in the Okun’s law estimation. We thank
Professor LU Feng for helpful advice and data on labor
migration and are grateful for comments from Tamim Bayoumi,
Hui He, Christina Kolerus, Markus Rodlauer, and seminar
participants at the Joint IMF/Peking University seminar and at
the Development Research Center.
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the
author(s) and are published to
elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed
in IMF Working Papers are
those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views
of the IMF, its Executive Board,
or IMF management.
2
Contents Page
I. Introduction
...............................................................................................
...........................3
II. Labor Market Developments
.............................................................................................4
III. Explaining Labor Market Resilience
...............................................................................6
IV. Empirical Analysis on Migrant Flows
...........................................................................11
A. Okun’s Law Estimates
...............................................................................................
...13
14. B. Determinants of Migrant Flows
....................................................................................14
V. Scenario Analysis on the Labor Market under the New
Normal ......................................17
A. Elasticity between Employment and Growth across Sectors
.........................................18
B. Estimation of Services Sector Share
..................................................................................18
C. Scenario Analysis
...............................................................................................
..............19
D. Simulation Results across Scenarios
.................................................................................20
VI. Policy Implications
...............................................................................................
...........22
VII. Conclusions
...............................................................................................
.......................23
References
...............................................................................................
................................30
Figures
1. Labor Market Developments
...............................................................................................
..5
2. Demography in China
...............................................................................................
.............7
3. China: Services Sector Expansion
.........................................................................................8
15. 4. Short-Term Buffers in Labor Markets against Adverse Shocks
..........................................10
6. Scenario Analysis of Economic Transition under the New
Normal ....................................20
Tables
1. Estimation of Okun’s Law for China
...................................................................................14
2. Descriptive Statistics
...............................................................................................
.............15
3. Determinants of Migrant Flows
...........................................................................................16
4. Elasticity of Employment in China across Sectors
..............................................................18
6. Different Scenarios of Productivity Gains and Real GDP
Growth ......................................22
Annexes
1. Data Statistics on China’s Labor Markets
...........................................................................25
2. A Tale of Two State-Owned Enterprises
.............................................................................27
3. Hukou Reforms under the Third Plenum Blueprint
.............................................................28
3
I. INTRODUCTION
China has embarked on the comprehensive, third-plenum reform
blueprint. Its objective is to
move toward more inclusive and sustainable growth through
16. better allocation of credit and resources
and improved social welfare. In this context, stable labor
markets are a priority. The National People’s
Congress 2015 work report highlighted that China has begun
transition toward a “new normal” as
economic reforms progress. Under it, priority is on maintaining
stable growth and ensuring ample
employment while pursuing reforms (State Council, 2015).
Labor market conditions appear to be holding up well, despite
slower growth. Newly created
urban jobs have exceeded official targets by a significant
margin, while the registered unemployment
rate remains stable at about 4 percent.2 Average wages have
grown in line with nominal GDP, and the
urban–rural income gap has not widened. High-frequency
purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) on
employment have softened somewhat, but the labor market
remains resilient overall.
Structural trends—in addition to unique buffers from migrant
flows and labor hoarding in
state-owned enterprises (SOE)—tend to support labor market
resilience, despite slowing
growth. China is at a demographic turning point, part of which
includes a decline in surplus rural
labor, which could dampen the negative pressures on
employment as economic growth slows. At the
same time, an expansion of the more labor-intensive services
sector is generating more jobs. Unique
features in China’s labor market—such as migrant flows and the
employment of excess labor among
SOEs and overcapacity sectors—also buffer employment against
adverse shocks. However, even
though this labor hoarding by SOEs may mitigate negative
impact on employment as the economy
17. slows, prolonged reliance on it could reduce labor flexibility,
leading to its inefficient allocation,
limiting productivity gains.
Migrant flows are key to understanding China’s labor market
conditions. The number of migrant
workers is significant, at about 270 million in 2013, or a third
of the total labor force (Meng, 2012)
and half of urban employment. These migrant flows are closely
related to GDP growth and better
reflect short-term dynamics in labor markets than do
unemployment rates. Our estimates further
suggest that the urban-rural income gap and economic growth
are key determinants of flows.
However, hukou restrictions and the lack of social services for
migrants could weaken long-term labor
market flexibility.
Empirical analysis suggests that the long-term resilience of
labor markets hinges on the
progress of reform implementation. A scenario analysis to
quantify the effects on employment of
reforms across sectors finds that delays in their implementation
could cause further distortions, which
would weaken medium-term employment prospects. It
demonstrates that new employment levels risk
falling below the current official job target. In contrast, faster
reforms in overcapacity sectors and
SOEs may, in the near term, release excess labor and push up
the interim unemployment rate by
½‒¾ percentage point, but facilitate structural transition—such
as urbanization and services sector
expansion—to more sustainable growth and job creation in the
medium term.
18. 2 The official surveyed unemployment rate was also stable, at
about 5 percent, in the first quarter of 2015.
4
The key policy implication of this analysis is that stronger labor
market flexibility will facilitate
China’s economic transition to the new normal. First, labor
market stability during economic
restructuring can be achieved more effectively with policies that
foster the reallocation of surplus labor
through effective, on-budget social policies. This is rather than
by relying solely on inherent buffers
against cyclical shocks (such as the employment of excess labor
among SOEs noted earlier). Third,
steadfast implementation of reforms will facilitate migrant
flows and structural trends, which in turn
will help generate jobs and urban employment in the medium
term. This includes opening up the
services sector and reforming hukou regulations to enhance
labor market flexibility (Whalley and
Zhang, 2007). At the same time, fiscal reforms on taxation,
pension portability, and higher social
spending will help narrow the urban–rural income gap (Lam and
Wingender, 2015). Finally,
broadening the coverage and timeliness of data, especially
related to migrant flows, will facilitate
policy design and assessment.
The paper is structured as follows. Section II discusses recent
labor market developments, and
Section III helps explain why labor markets have been resilient,
despite slower growth, in light of
19. migrant flows and some signs of labor hoarding in SOEs and
overcapacity sectors. Section IV
discusses the recent development of migrant flows and analyzes
the key determinants of the
movement of migrant workers across provinces. Section V uses
a scenario analysis to quantify the
effects on labor markets when China implements reforms and
transits to the new normal. Section VI
discusses the policy implications and Section VII concludes.
II. LABOR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
Until recently, labor market conditions appeared resilient,
despite slower growth (Figure 1).
reached 13.6 million in 2014, exceeding
the official target of 10 million.3 New jobs reached 3.2 million
in the first quarter of 2015, slightly
lower than 2014:Q1, but still estimated to exceed the target this
year. In fact, during the past
decade, new jobs have always surpassed annual policy targets
and with significant margins.4
Demand in urban labor markets has also outpaced supply since
the global financial crisis across
regions in China, suggesting some tightness in the labor market.
Over the past few years, the
official registered unemployment rate has been stable at about
3 The indicator on new urban jobs is based on cumulative urban
jobs that are newly created net of natural attrition
during a given period. Natural attrition includes those retiring
or leaving jobs due to accidents and deaths, according
to national regulation policies. The statistics on new urban jobs
are adjusted for the possibility that a worker may
20. take on a few jobs within a year.
4 Total employment rose by about 250 million during 1990–
2014, largely driven by growth and large-scale rural-to-
urban migrant flows. Nearly two-thirds of the gain in
employment was from newly created jobs—at more than
10 million per year—according to the National Bureau of
Statistics, while reemployment from layoffs and other
circumstances has been stable at a small base.
5
Figure 1. Labor Market Developments
Newly created urban jobs exceeded the policy targets in
2014…
… and demand-supply conditions for labor have been
favorable since the global financial crisis.
Average wage growth has outpaced nominal GDP growth
in recent years …
… while wages for migrant workers have grown at a similar
pace as those of urban workers.
The official unemployment rate appears to be muted
during economic cycles.
But high-frequency indicators showed some softening signs.
80
23. D
ec-14
M
ar-15
Demand-Supply Ratio
Demand-Supply Ratio: Eastern
Demand-Supply Ratio: Central
Demand-Supply Ratio: Western
City Labor Market: Demand and Supply Conditions 1/
Sources: CEIC
1/ If the ratio exceeds 100, it indicates demand conditions for
labor market is
stronger than supply conditions.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
M
ar
31. 20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Urban private sector wages
Urban non-private sector wages
Migrant worker wages
Ratio of Urban non-private to Migrants wages (RHS)
Average Urban Workers and Migrants Wages
(Monthly wages in RMB (LHS) and Ratio (RHS))
Sources: CEIC and Lu (2012).
1/ Based on Lu (2012) estimates in "Trend in China Migrant
Workers' Wages" in Journal of China
Social Science, Vol.7 on migrant worker wages before 2007.
0
33. Estimates based on population census and one-percent
household survey
Official surveyed unemployment rate based on 31 cities
Estimates based on Urban Labor Survey data
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, Urban Labor Survey,
Xue and Zhong (2003), and authors'
estimates.
Official and Estimates of Urban Unemployment Rates
(in percent)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
42
44
39. Manufacturing PMI on Employment (LHS)
Services PMI on Employment (LHS)
Net increase in urban newly created jobs (y/y in percent RHS)
PMI Indices on Employment and Net Urban Jobs Creation
(Index: expansionary if greater than 50 and contractionary if
smaller than 50 LHS; in percent RHS)
Sources: CEIC.
6
4 percent; the official surveyed unemployment rate has also
held steady, at about 5 percent.
Tracking employment is difficult because of data shortcomings
(Annex 1). High-frequency
indicators such as the purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) show
some softening signs. Both
the manufacturing and services PMIs for employment—
available on a monthly basis—fell
below 50 in 2014 (indicating a contraction). And the PMIs on
employment seem to correlate
with year-over-year growth in urban job creation, a key policy
target.
Average wage growth for urban
and migrant workers has slowed, but has remained higher than
nominal GDP growth and
labor productivity in recent years. The average monthly income
of migrant workers grew
9.5 percent in 2014, higher than nominal GDP growth of 8.2
percent. But migrant wages
40. have stayed at about 60 percent of urban workers’ wages over
the past few years, after
significant convergence during the late 1990s and early 2000s.
III. EXPLAINING LABOR MARKET RESILIENCE
Structural trends, such as changing demography and expansion
of the services sector, tend
to support labor market resilience during the current growth
slowdown. Specifically:
point (often termed as the Lewis
turning point), with less surplus labor from rural areas (Das and
N’Diaye 2013; Zhang, Yang,
and Wang, 2011). A decline in surplus labor could also dampen
new pressures on
employment, which partly explains why labor markets have held
up well as the economy
slows (Figure 2). How demography will affect labor markets
going forward is less certain.
On the one hand, China’s population is aging. The fertility rate
remains low and the
dependency ratio will climb. The working-age population will
soon begin to contract.5 And
these demographic headwinds may reduce growth and wage
prospects. On the other hand,
the labor force participation rate remains near 80 percent, one
of the highest globally.6 Plans
to raise the retirement age could also boost the shrinking labor
force (Zhang and Zhao, 2012;
Gruber, Milligan, and Wise, 2009). Average labor productivity
is likely to rise because
incoming cohorts have, on average, more years of schooling
than those exiting the labor
force.
41. 5 The working-age population (ages 15–64) grew by about 100–
120 million during 1990–2013 (averaging about
1.2 percent per year), but will begin to shrink in 2015. Easing
of the one-child policy may eventually mitigate the
impact on long-term growth, but it is not likely to address the
decline within the next decade.
6 The participation rate was consistently above 80 percent for
urban workers, but has been declining since the onset
of the 2000s, particularly after state-sector restructuring in
2001.
7
Figure 2. Demography in China
The population is aging rapidly in China … … with a declining
working-age population.
The labor participation rate has fallen but remains
relatively high at nearly 80 percent…
… and the dependency ratio is set to rise further, reaching
nearly 50 percent by 2030.
growing
services sector is often cited as a key reason for
42. labor market resilience amid slowing growth. It
tends to be more labor intensive and low skilled,
on average, and is thereby able to absorb surplus
labor. For instance, jobs created from a
1 percentage point increase of the services sector
share in GDP could offset the employment loss
from a 0.4 percentage point decline in GDP
growth (Ma and others, 2014). Both employment
in and output of the services sector have
expanded rapidly, particularly after 2008 (text figure). Services
sector employment accounted
for about 40 percent of the labor force in 2014, and value-added
from the services sector
reached 48.2 percent in 2014, surpassing that of the
manufacturing sector (Figure 3). The
contributions of the services sector to total employment are
large, often exceeding
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
600
45. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
2045 2050
Dependency Ratio
(in percent)
Sources: NBS, and United Nations Projections.
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
-8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20
Industrial employment
Services employment
Primary sector employment
Sources: CEIC and authors' estimates.
1/ between 2002 and the latest year available.
Annualized Growth in Employment by Sector
(in percent; bubble size scaled by total urban employment 1/)
46. Between 2002 and 2008
Between
2008 and
2013 1/
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
2045 2050
Working Age Population Growth
(in percent)
Sources: NBS, and United Nations Projections.
50
55
48. Sources: United Nations Projections.
8
Figure 3. China: Services Sector Expansion
Employment in the services sector has expanded … … noticably
after 2008.
Services sector account for a higher share of output … … and
growing faster than the industrial sector since
2013.
It has contributed significantly to growth in employment in
all provinces …
… and accounts for a greater share of employment.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
56. ai
Primary sector
Industrial sector
Services sector
Urban employment
Change in Employment by Provinces
(in millions of workers between 2002 and the latest year
available)
Sources: CEIC and authors' estimates.
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1991
1992
65. Services sector
Real GDP Growth by Sector
(in percent)
Sources: CEIC and authors' estimates.
9
half in most provinces.7 Meanwhile, while employment may
remain firm, labor productivity in the
services sector is, in general, lower than that in manufacturing.
At the same time, unique features in China’s labor market—
such as migrant flows and surplus
workers in SOEs—buffer against adverse shocks, but come at a
cost (Figure 4).
–urban migrant flows, which for the most part are not
fully reflected in unemployment
statistics, have acted as a shock absorber. Migrants seek
opportunities in urban areas (which
account for about 35.5 percent of total employment and 50.9
percent of nonagricultural
employment). During an economic downturn or a temporary
slowdown from the implementation
of structural reforms, declining job opportunities in cities may
keep rural workers from migrating,
and migrants in cities return to rural areas. Migrant worker jobs,
largely in the private sector and in
low-skill industries, are usually more vulnerable to a growth
slowdown than are urban workers’
66. jobs. Rural–urban migrant flows start to slow before the
unemployment rate rises. For instance,
when the global financial crisis hit in mid-2008, it was reported
that about 20–45 million migrant
workers returned to their rural homes, helping mute the impact
on urban unemployment (Meng,
2012).
hoarding excess labor instead of laying off
workers during downturns (Friedman, 1996; Bidani, Goh, and
O’Leary, 2002; Dong and
Putterman, 2001and 2003). SOEs favor a gradual adjustment
through relocation, buyouts, and
severance pay. Although their share of total employment has
declined, SOEs are often
concentrated in overcapacity sectors in which excess labor is
more common (text chart).8 Data on
the size of excess labor among SOEs are limited, though
anecdotal evidence suggests the scale
may be large for individual SOEs (see Annex 2).
While these buffers may temporarily mitigate the impact on
employment of an economic
slowdown, if they persist for a prolonged period of time, they
could delay the reforms necessary for
economic transition. For instance, limited migrant flows could
imply inefficient allocation of labor
that limits productivity gains, while having SOEs hold on to
excess labor delays the unwinding of
overcapacity sectors.
7 There could also be a “replacement” effect, in which migrant
workers got laid off from manufacturing sector jobs,
67. but stayed in cities and got jobs in the services sector.
8 In 1990, more than 97 percent of urban hukou workers were
employed in state and collective sectors. Since the
restructuring of the state sector beginning in the mid-1990s, the
private sector has become a key demand source for
employment in both manufacturing and services. The
employment share of the state sector has continued to decline,
falling below 50 percent in recent years, and almost half of
urban hukou workers have shifted to the private sector.
10
Figure 4. Short-Term Buffers in Labor Markets against Adverse
Shocks
Growth in migrant flows tends to track GDP growth more
closely …
… acting as a shock absorber against a rise in
unemployment.
Urban employment, mostly in the nonagricultural sectors,
continues to rise …
... mostly driven by new migrant flows from rural areas.
SOEs may be hoarding excess labor during the slowdown,
but theire share in the economy is shrinking.
Provinces with more of SOEs and the overcapcity sector tend
to have weaker wages and output growth.
73. GDP growth (LHS) Migrant workers (LHS) Net increase in
urban employment (RHS)
GDP Growth, Migrant Workers, and Urban Employment
(in percent; year-on-year growth on migrant workers and
employment)
Source: CEIC
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
74. 13000
14000
15000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New Urban employment (LHS)
Reemployed from Layoff(RHS)
Reemployed from Hard to be employed(RHS)
China: New Employment
(in thousands)
Sources: NBS
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Real GDP Growth and Average Wages
(in percent y/y)
Sources: CEIC
77. 2011
2012
2013
2014
GDP growth rate(LHS)
Migrant flows (y/y growth)
GDP Growth and Migrant Flows
(in percent)
Note: Migrant flow rate is measured as ratio of annual net
change of migrant workers to total employment.
Sources: NBS.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-15
-10
80. 20
13
20
14
Total increase of employment Projection
Manufacturing and services sectors Urban employment
Rural employment New urban jobs created
China: Net Change of Employment
(in millions of people)
Sources: CEIC and authors' estimates.
11
IV. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON MIGRANT FLOWS
Migrant flows are key to understanding China’s labor market
conditions.9 Migrant flows are
closely related to GDP growth and better reflect short-term
dynamics in labor markets than
unemployment rates (Lu, Liu, Jiang, and Zhang, 2014). In fact,
migrant flows also grew more mildly
in 2014 (year-over-year), in line with the growth slowdown
(Figures 4 and 5). The correlation
between GDP growth and migrant flows is 0.8, relative to 0.4
for the unemployment rate.10 There
were about 270 million migrant workers in China in 2013, about
a third of the total labor force (Meng,
2012) and half of urban employment.11 Increasingly, migrants
have stayed close to local areas—
81. perhaps because local job prospects are improving and firms are
relocating inland. At the same time,
migrant flows also contributed to urbanization in China. The
urbanization rate, now at 54.8 percent, is
expected to rise to about 60 percent by 2020. Urban
employment has more than doubled during the
past two decades to about 393 million, and for the first time, in
2014, exceeded rural employment
(Hu, 1998; Young, 2003; Liu and Lu, 2014).12 The annual
increase in urban employment has been
broadly in line with the increase in
nonagricultural employment, except the latter
is more volatile.
Even after moving to the cities for work,
migrant workers often have limited access
to social welfare and services there. The
hukou restrictions and the lack of social
services discourage migrants from staying
permanently in cities (Gruber, Milligan, and
Wise, 2009). The participation rate and
employment rate for migrant workers was very
high (nearly 95 percent), mostly in
manufacturing and the unskilled services
sector, but migrants were only earning slightly more than half
of urban workers’ income (text table).
9 The literature on the role of informal sector labor, notably on
Latin America, also shares similar characteristics and
explains the low sensitivity of the official unemployment rate to
output fluctuations, though the scale of migrant
flows in China is much greater.
10 We calculate the annual net change of migrant worker flows
as a percentage of total employment for each year.
82. Data on migrant workers before 2007 are based on the
cumulative sum of rural employment outside the agriculture
sector, published by Ministry of Agriculture. Migrant worker
data after 2007 are from the Rural Division of the
National Bureau of Statistics.
11 During the rise of urban unemployment in the early 2000s,
more than 100 million rural hukou workers moved to
cities. Thus, unemployment at that time might have been a
structural mismatch between skills and available jobs and
the voluntary migration to cities in search of prospects in urban
areas (Seeborg, Jin, and Zhu, 2000; Hu and Cheng,
2003; Kuijs and Wang, 2005; Hertel and Zhai 2006; Cai and
Wang, 2010; Zhang, Liu, and Fan, 2014).
12 Manufacturing jobs initially drove employment gains.
Accession to the World Trade Organization caused
manufacturing employment to expand sharply; it grew more
than 5 percent a year on average during 2003–08. It
began to slow after the global financial crisis, in part driven by
rising labor costs and a gradual shift toward high
value-added manufacturing sectors.
Migrants
Urban hukou
residents
Labor market indicators
Labor force participation rate 95.9 69.5
Employment rate 94.3 62.9
of which: self-employed 27.7 8.4
83. Average weekly hours 63.2 43.8
Average hourly wage (2013) 55.6 100.0
Education level
Years of schooling (average in years) 9.2 12.3
Share of senior high and above 33.0 77.7
Employment industries
Professional and office work 10.5 52.9
Sales / services workers 55.9 24.7
Manufacturing 32.7 15.5
Social welfare and benefits
Access to unemployment insurance (2008-2010) 12.0 - 13.5
60.0 - 66.0
Access to urban health insurance (2010) 20.0 87.0
Average duration stayed in cities (in years) 1/ 7.0 n.a.
Sources: CEIC, Meng (2012), labor survey (2009).
1/ Measured in calendar year and subject to some selection bias.
Table. Characteristics of Migrant Workers
in percent unless otherwise stated
84. 12
Figure 5. Summary of Conditions for Migrant Workers
Migrant workers have increasingly stayed closer to local
areas…
… and participated less in the informal sector.
Wage growth for migrant workers remained resilient in
2014.
Migrant workers who moved out to urban areas are
aging fast too.
They are less covered in social welfare and benefits … … in
part because they do not have labor contracts at
their jobs.
30.2
37.5
29.7
0
10
20
85. 30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001 2005 2010
Migrant workers Local workers All
Size and Composition of Informal Employment
(in percent)
Sources: World Bank (2014) and Cai, Du, and Wang (2011)
0
2
4
6
8
10
90. 90
100
Total Migrants who go out Migrants who stay in
local areas
Open-ended labor contract One-year or less fixed-term contract
One-year or above fixed-term contracts No labor contracts
Migrant Workers and Labor Contract
(in percent of total migrant workers as of 2014)
Sources: NBS.
13
Migrant workers’ wages have also increased in line with urban
workers in recent years, partly driven
by expansion of the services sector and the rise of minimum
wages.13 Nonetheless, migrant workers
still account for most of the employment in the informal sector.
A. Okun’s Law Estimates
Migrant flows, rather than the unemployment rate, are closely
related to growth
fluctuations. The typical specification Okun’s law uses growth
(or the output gap) as the
dependent variable, while the unemployment rate (or gap with
the nonaccelerating inflation rate
of unemployment) is the independent variable, or vice versa
91. (Okun 1962). Taking the features of
China’s labor market into consideration, the estimation model
conducted for this paper is given
in equation (1):
∆ ∆ (1)
in which gyt is the real GDP growth rate, ut is either the official
registered urban unemployment rate or
the estimated unemployment rate based on Urban Household
Survey data from 1989‒2009, variable
Dt is a dummy for the year of urban employment reform, k is
the year of structural reform in the labor
market, and Migt denotes the annual change in the migrants as a
share of total employment.
14 The
empirical results suggest a correlation between the fluctuations
of output and the cyclical conditions of
China’s labor market. The Chow test implies the structural
break occurred in 1993 (F-statistic is
3.67 with p-value of 0.047 when using the Urban Household
Survey urban unemployment rate; the F-
statistic is 2.79 with p-value of 0.092 when using the official
registered rate). The Okun coefficient is
Estimates suggest the registered unemployment rate has little
relationship with GDP growth, while the
estimate using unemployment rates from surveys shows a
negative and significant relationship (Table
1).15 For instance, a 1 percentage point increase in
unemployment after 1993 is associated with a
reduction in the growth rate by about 0.8–1.0 percentage point.
Moreover, the inclusion of the migrant
share in employment also improves the overall fit of the
92. regression. Growth in migrant flows is
strongly correlated with GDP growth. A 1 percentage point
increase in migrant flows is associated
with GDP growth of nearly 2 percentage points. Migrant
workers have a closer link to economic
fluctuations, possibly because they are more vulnerable to job
losses. These estimates suggest that
migrant flows may better reflect labor market conditions.
13 Evidence suggests that the impact of the recent rise in
minimum wages on employment in China has been small,
on average, but the extent has varied across firms. On average,
a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage would
lower employment by slightly more than 1 percent, but the
impact tends to be higher, as much as 2.5 percent on
employment, for low-wage and smaller firms, according to
Huang, Loungani, and Wang (2014).
14 Until recently, UHS have significantly under-sampled
migrant workers. As a result, ∆ut in the equation likely
does not include unemployment rate of migrant workers. An
inclusion of migrant workers as a separate explanatory
variable (Mig) intends to capture the possible effects on growth
from movements of migrant workers.
15 Okun (1962) estimates that a 1 percentage point rise in the
unemployment rate is associated with about
3 percentage points fall in output. Other studies on China that
use the official unemployment rate also find a
significant deviation from Okun’s results (Zou and Hu,2003;
Cai, 2007; Fang and Sun, 2010).
14
93. Table 1. Estimation of Okun’s Law for China
B. Determinants of Migrant Flows
Cross-province analysis finds that the urban–rural income gap
and GDP growth are key
determinants of migrant flows. The empirical analysis uses
provincial-level panel data. The
sample period begins in 1992, the year that marked the start of a
series of reforms after Deng
Xiaoping’s famous southern tour. The dependent variable,
migrant flows, is based on the annual
change in the rural labor force net of agricultural employment.
In that context, it is assumed that
the rural labor force in the agricultural sector is fully employed.
Core, cross-province explanatory variables include (1) the
urban-rural income gap (measured as
the gap between urban household income and rural household
net income per capita); (2) GDP
growth rate; (3) infrastructure level (proxied by road density);
(4) total factor productivity (TFP,
estimated using provincial panel data on industrial output, net
values of fixed assets and labors
with system GMM estimation methods) and (5) agricultural
labor productivity (measured as the
ratio of total agricultural capital use to agricultural
employment). In addition, a set of control
variables is included, such as the degree of openness (proxied
by the ratio of foreign direct
investment to GDP and the ratio of trade to GDP), share of SOE
output in total industrial output,
financial sector size (loans-to-GDP ratio), and per capita public
expenditure on education. Other
potential variables are included in the third specification,
including the urban unemployment rate
94. (both registered and surveyed), the rate of return on capital
(ratio of profits to net fixed assets for
industrial enterprises), and inflation rate (Table 2).
Model
Variable
Dependent Variable: GDP Growth Rate
Official Unemployment Rate
Survey Unemployment R ate
(O.1)
(O.2)
(S.1) (S.2 )
-5.503*
-3.090
6.242***
96. for year 1993 to reflect thestructural change related to reforms .
2/
Sta ndard error is in parentheses. *, **, *** indicates
statistical significance at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent
levels, respectively.
Dependent variables in columns (O.2) and (S.2)
are authors’ calculations based onUrban Household Survey
data, while others are from NBS.
Sources :
NBS, Urban Household Survey, IMF staff calculations.
15
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics
Variables Observations Mean Standard
Error
Minimum Maximum
Migrant Flows (log) 530 2.694 1.454 -1.609 5.205
Urban-rural income gap (log) 589 8.285 0.518 6.975 9.570
GDP growth rate 589 0.108 0.045 -0.043 0.345
Infrastructure (log) 584 7.825 0.932 5.092 9.839
97. Loans/GDP 589 0.996 0.286 0.533 2.260
Loans/savings 589 0.870 0.251 0.233 1.890
TFP (log) 587 -1.001 0.344 -1.805 -0.070
Rural productivity (log) 583 2.882 0.698 0.846 4.364
FDI/GDP 576 0.035 0.036 0.000 0.243
Trade/GDP 589 0.299 0.397 0.032 2.173
SOE share 584 0.511 0.202 0.094 0.899
Public expenditure on education 483 3.280 3.099 0.374 20.15
Urban registered unemployment
rate (%) 565 3.370 0.966 0.400 7.400
Urban surveyed unemployment
rate (%) 162 6.367 3.184 1.338 14.49
Capital returns 589 0.096 0.083 -0.055 0.461
CPI (%) 589 5.178 7.021 -3.900 29.70
Data sources: China Statistical Yearbooks, China Compendium
of Statistics 1949-2008, China Compendium of Statistics in
Agriculture
1949-2008, Provincial Statistical Yearbooks, Provincial Traffic
Statistical Yearbooks, and the official websites of Provincial
Department
of Transportation, and CEIC. Urban surveyed unemployment
rate is estimated using micro data of urban household survey.
The
regression sample spans from 1992 to 2010. Due to data
missing, the numbers of observations are not equal for all
variables.
98. In consideration of the spatial correlation of the migrant flows
and corresponding explanatory
variables across provinces, two spatial econometric models are
used in our regression analysis.
Urban–rural income gaps as well as infrastructure may have
varying spatial impacts on migrant flows
across provinces (Xu and Wang 2010; Luo 2010; Zhang, Hong,
and Chen, 2013). The spatial
correlation of economic variables may come from explanatory
variables or from the unexplained
residual terms. As a result, the analysis considers both a spatial
autoregressive model (SAR) and a
spatial error model (SEM) using maximum likelihood estimation
to account for potential different
sources of the spatial correlation effects. Specifically, the
regression can be expressed as:
SAR: , , , , , (2)
in which Y is migrant flows, X is a matrix of explanatory
variables listed above, W is the spatial
weighting matrix, wi
The weight is selected as 1 for neighboring
16
provinces, and 0 otherwise, and the weight matrix is then
standardized in the estimation as in Luo
(2010) and Zhang, Hong, and Chen (2013).
99. The regression results show that the coefficients mostly have
the expected signs. The urban–rural
income gap is a key driver of migrant flows across provinces. A
larger urban–rural income gap would
encourage migrants to move to cities for nonagricultural jobs.
Higher GDP growth is associated with
shifting labor out of the agriculture sector and encouraging the
shift of workers to urban areas.
Infrastructure is also statistically significant, suggesting that
better developed infrastructure would
help reduce migrant mobility costs.
Table 3. Determinants of Migrant Flows
Variables:
Migrant flows (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
0.399*** 0.919*** 0.853*** 0.524*** 0.943*** 0.872***
(0.133) (0.168) (0.166) (0.149) (0.177) (0.175)
3.147*** 3.469*** 3.279*** 3.301** 3.011*** 2.861***
(1.19) (0.99) (1.01) (1.28) (1.05) (1.06)
0.500*** 0.549*** 0.545*** 0.518*** 0.547*** 0.534***
(0.049) (0.048) (0.047) (0.052) (0.050) (0.050)
-0.580*** -0.620*** -1.045*** -0.643*** -0.631*** -1.056***
(0.202) (0.176) (0.193) (0.206) (0.176) (0.194)
-0.462*** -0.289*** -0.351*** -0.549*** -0.345*** -0.400***
(0.075) (0.068) (0.068) (0.084) (0.071) (0.071)
101. Adjusted R2 0.884 0.877 0.883 0.883 0.874 0.88
Log-likelihood -721.7 -616.9 -603.6 -722.3 -611.7 -599.8
Observations 589 589 589 589 589 589
Public expenditure on education
Change of urban unemployment
rate (%)
Capital returns
CPI(%)
Rural productivity (log)
FDI/GDP
Trade/GDP
SOE share
Loans/GDP
Loans/savings
Spatial Auto Regressive Model (SAR) Spatial Error Model
(SEM)
Urban-rural income gap
GDP growth rate
Infrastructure (log)
102. TFP(log)
17
The estimation results for other variables are also broadly in
line with our expectations: the higher
share of SOE employment in a province would be associated
with lower migrant flows. It could
possibly be that under the hukou systems, migrant workers
rarely work in SOEs. At the same time, as
the share of SOE employment decreases (possibly due to
structural reforms that led to massive layoffs
in the mid-1990s and early 2000s), private enterprise increases,
and laid-off workers would seek
opportunities as migrant workers outside their local rural areas.
The negative coefficients on TFP
seem counter-intuitive. But since the regression includes GDP
growth, the TFP coefficients may
capture the replacement effect between capital and workers,
especially when the technology is capital
oriented. Public expenditure on education is negative and
significant, indicating that the increase in
public education expenditure is not conducive to improving the
productivity of the agricultural labor
force. It is because current public expenditures on education are
seriously biased toward urban
households, which further reduces the competitiveness and
employment opportunities of the rural
labor force. Size of the provincial financial sector and
agricultural labor productivity are generally
correlated with migrant flows. Returns to capital also have a
strong positive effect on migrant flows,
likely suggesting complementarities of capital and labor inputs
103. when China was opening up. The
inflation coefficient is not significant, possibly because
variation between provinces is fairly small,
with free movement of workers and goods. Unemployment rates
also do not have a strong effect,
perhaps due to data shortcomings in these indicators.
V. SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON THE LABOR MARKET
UNDER THE NEW NORMAL
Implementation of the reform blueprint will have long-lasting
effects on the labor market.
Measures in the third-plenum reform blueprint (State Council,
2013) will affect economic
growth over the medium term. Moreover, other reforms such as
hukou reforms and expanding
coverage of social security and raising the minimum wage will
have direct effects on labor
markets (He, Lei, and Zhu, 2015). At the same time, reform
implementation may well reinforce
the course of structural trends, which in turn will affect labor
market conditions.
The scenario analysis shows that a steady implementation of
reforms is crucial for the
resilience of labor markets. Our approach first obtains historical
estimates on the relationship
between employment and growth across sectors (subsection A
below). Using cross-country
experience, the speed of services sector expansion—important
for employment—was estimated
based on panel regression on per-capita income (subsection B).
The design of the scenarios in
subsection C is identical to that in the IMF staff report on China
(2015) and Lam and
Maliszewski (2015). The simulation is based on the Flexible
104. System of Global Models (Andrle
and others, 2015), which is widely used in simulating policy
responses. In areas related to labor
market conditions, the scenario incorporates key elements of the
reform blueprint, including
financial, fiscal, SOE, and hukou reforms. Hukou reforms will
improve labor mobility and
support urbanization (Annex 3). The reform plan commits to
raising the urbanization rate to
about 60 percent by 2020 (about 1 percentage point per year).
This paper complements those
studies, which do not directly consider responses in labor
markets in the model framework.
18
A. Elasticity between Employment and Growth across Sectors
The elasticity measures the extent to which employment in a
sector will increase if growth
in that sector rises by 1 percentage point. We estimate the
average elasticity over the sample
period between 1993 and 2013 for the agriculture,
manufacturing, and services sectors (Table 4).
Table 4. Elasticity of Employment in China across Sectors
Based on the estimated aggregate elasticity, a 1 percentage
point increase in employment is
105. associated with GDP growth of 0.08 percentage point, on
average. The elasticity declined to about
0.04 after the global financial crisis, about half its historical
level. The elasticity for the primary sector
is negative because rural workers moving to nonagricultural
employment would likely boost growth.
The elasticity of the services sector tends to be about 0.1
percentage point higher than elasticity of
manufacturing, suggesting that the services sector is more labor
intensive and has lower labor
productivity.16 The result seems consistent with the observation
that labor markets have held up well
despite the slowdown in growth, driven in part by an expansion
of the services sector.
B. Estimation of Services Sector Share
An international comparison may help estimate how
much the services sector share of economic output
could expand in China (Guo and N’Diaye 2009).
There is a close, positive linkage between per capita
income and services sector employment. Countries at
a similar development stage as China often
experience a continual expansion of services as
income rises. For instance, estimates suggest that a
1 percent increase in per capita GDP would drive up
16 The yearly elasticity across sectors is subject to wide
fluctuation in 2013 due to a sharp change in employment
growth in the services and manufacturing sectors (see Figure 1).
Whole
Year Economy Primary Secondary Tertiary
1993–2000 0.11 -0.13 0.10 0.52
106. 2001–2008 0.06 -0.45 0.23 0.28
2009–2013 0.04 -0.85 0.32 0.27
Average (1993–2013 0.08 -0.41 0.19 0.37
Estimated elasticity 1/ 0.0762*** -0.459*** 0.212*** 0.313***
(0.005) (0.050) (0.020) (0.014)
1/ Estimated based on data from 1993-2013. Standard errors are
in parentheses.
*, **, *** indicates significances at 10 percent, 5 percent and 1
percent level respectively
Annual Elasticity of Sector Employment with Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
107. Brazil China
Germany India
Indonesia Japan
Korea United States
Per-capita Income and Share of Employment in Services
Sector (in percent and in constant 2005 USD)
Sources: World Development Index and authors' estimates.
y = 10.509ln(x) - 40.429
R² = 0.8817
19
the services sector share of employment and output by 0.09 and
0.06 percentage points, respectively
(text chart and Table 5). The economic transformation in China
that aims to lift per capita
income therefore will further raise services sector employment
(Song, Storesletten, and Zilibotti,
2011).
Table 5. The Relation between Service Sector Development and
Income Level
Variables Share of employment in services Share of GDP in
services
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
Ln(GDP per capita) 0.0906*** 0.0922*** 0.0260*** 0.0671***
0.0809*** 0.00591
(0.00180) (0.00121) (0.00661) (0.00225) (0.00206) (0.0105)
108. Constant 0.349*** 0.350*** 0.188*** 0.404*** 0.420***
0.212***
(0.00277) (0.00170) (0.0164) (0.00346) (0.00290) (0.0260)
Fixed effect No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Year effect No No Yes No No Yes
Observations 899 899 899 899 899 899
R-squared 0.738 0.870 0.892 0.498 0.640 0.740
Number of province 28 28 28 28
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
C. Scenario Analysis
implementing reform (IMF
2015). Growth slows in the near term as a reduction in
unsustainable demand—needed to
reduce vulnerabilities—weighs on activity. This includes slower
credit growth to address
debt overhang and a multiyear residential real estate adjustment
to bring down excess
housing inventories. Growth thus falls to 6¼ percent in 2016
and 6 percent in 2017,
cushioned by productivity gains from structural reforms.
Starting in 2018, overall growth
picks up modestly as those productivity gains begin to
dominate.17
progress in advancing reforms and
containing vulnerabilities. The unsustainable pattern of growth
109. will persist if progress is too
slow, and vulnerabilities will continue to rise. Over the medium
term, the likelihood of China
falling into a period of protracted weak growth would rise
considerably, and a risk of a sharp
and disorderly correction would also increase as the existing
buffers—a still relatively
healthy public sector balance sheet and large domestic
savings—would diminish quickly.
Scenario simulations will give rise to a GDP growth path over
the medium term (IMF, 2015). The
estimated elasticity—estimated in subsection A—is used to
determine the impact on employment in
the manufacturing and services (nonagriculture) sectors for each
scenario.18 The simulated growth
17 The analysis is based on the experience of other fast-growing
Asian economies, modeling exercises, and growth
convergence regressions, which suggest that growth of around
6.3 percent in 2020 is achievable with successful reforms.
18 The estimated elasticity is 0.076 for aggregate employment,
and 0.21 and 0.31 for manufacturing and services,
respectively (see section V part B). Agricultural sector
employment is taken to be the residual between total
employment
(continued…)
20
110. path also allows us to derive per capita income growth to pin
down—based on estimates in subsection
B—the services sector share of employment and migrant flows,
as well as the underlying
unemployment rate using Okun’s law estimates. The path for the
urbanization rate would help
cross-check the estimated change in urban employment. We use
the annual increase in urban
employment or nonagricultural employment as proxies for the
official job targets.19
D. Simulation Results across Scenarios (Figure 6).
from 6.8 percent in 2015 to
about 6 percent by 2017 before picking up to about 6.3 percent
by 2020. Implementation of
reforms would initially slow growth, but productivity gains
would later lift growth to a more
sustainable trajectory. In the baseline scenario, the services
sector continues to expand to
nearly 52.4 percent of output and 46 percent of employment by
2020 (text charts). The
unemployment rate, while rising by about ½ percentage point,
would remain stable in the
medium term. The net increase in urban employment—a proxy
for new urban jobs, an
official job target—just exceeds 10 million people each year.
-led measures can support
near-term growth, the
likelihood of a sharp slowdown heightens as vulnerabilities
build up in the medium term.
Migrant flows would slow as the services sector expansion
stalls and hukou restrictions pose
obstacles. The net increase in urban employment would decline,
111. at times about 10 million
workers a year, while the unemployment rate would spike from
initially stable levels.
Figure 6. Scenario Analysis of Economic Transition under the
New Normal
Advancing reforms, as in the baseilne scenario, will support
ongoing economic transition to the services sector …
… and generate more employment.
and that in the manufacturing and services sectors. Agricultural
employment is expected to decline further to fewer
than 200 million workers by 2020, a decline of about 3 percent
per year.
19 Official data on new urban jobs are less comparable to usual
labor market statistics. The proxies based on net
increases of nonagricultural or urban employment come quite
close.
4.1
3.2
7.3
5.9
8.1
7.4
0
2
4
123. Figure 6. Scenario Analysis of Economic Transition under the
New Normal
(concluded)
Advancing reforms would initially slow growth but move
toward a safer and more sustainable growth path.
Under the baseline scenario, total employment growth
could also stay resilient despite the near-term slowdown.
Slow reform implementation could add pressure on job
creation in nonagricultural sectors ...
… and urban employment too.
The unemployment rate could edge up when implementing
reforms in the near term, as growth slowdown and excess
labor is released from SOEs.
A safer and more sustainable growth path will contribute
to a sustained migrant flows.
4
5
6
7
8
9
124. 10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Baseline
Slow reform scenario
Scenario Analysis--Migrant Flows
(in millions of people)
Sources: authors' estimates.
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Baseline Slow reform
Scenario Analysis--Unemployment Rate
(in percent; 2013-14 levels based on surveyed unemployment
127. 10.0
11.0
12.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020
Baseline
Slow reform scenario
Scenario Analysis--Real GDP Growth
(in percent)
Sources: authors' estimates based on IMF Staff Report on China
(2014).
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
128. 2020
Baseline
Slow reform scenario
Scenario Analysis--Growth in Total Employment
(in percent)
Sources: authors' estimates.
22
The scenario analysis is subject to several caveats. First, the
effects on labor markets are based on
elasticity estimates that rely on the long-term relationship
between growth and employment. The
elasticities could evolve as China’s economy is transformed.
Second, if aggregate productivity were to
fall short of expectations, it could risk that the rise in urban
employment falls short of target, or even if
the employment target is met, GDP and wage growth are much
lower because of stagnant
productivity. A sensitivity analysis shows that if the increase in
urban employment stays the same as
in the baseline, but without reform-led productivity gains in the
services sector, then GDP growth
could slow by 0.2–0.4 percentage point (Table 6).
Table 6. Different Scenarios of Productivity Gains and Real
GDP Growth
(In percent)
129. VI. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The key policy implication of our analysis is that the
elimination of impediments to labor
market flexibility with on-budget and targeted social safety nets
will facilitate to economic
transition to the new normal in China.
Strengthen labor market flexibility rather than relying too much
on buffers to shocks in the
medium term. Although these buffers—for instance, migrant
flows and SOEs’ capacity to hoard
labor—can temporarily lessen unemployment pressures during
an economic downturn, they hinder
reform efforts. Smaller migrant flows would imply lower
productivity gains, whereas allowing SOEs
to hold onto excess labor would delay the necessary
adjustments. Policies such as retraining for work
in the services sector could strengthen labor market flexibility
while enhancing productivity.
Structural reforms are key to a strong labor market in the
medium term. As seen in the scenario
analysis, slow reforms would lead to significant downside risks
for growth and employment in the
medium term. The priorities should be to continue reforms to
contain vulnerabilities and move China
toward a more sustainable growth path.
portability, will support labor mobility
across provinces. Broadening the value-added tax can help
services sector expansion by removing
the cascading effects on investment. Social security reforms,
including pension portability, would
130. significantly increase labor mobility, while also strengthening
social safety nets. On-budget
targeted social safety nets and retraining programs may
facilitate labor market flexibility. Higher
Services
share of
output
Manufacturing Services 2015 2020 2020
Baseline 0.22 0.29 6.8 6.3 5.2 6.1 52.4
Higher productivity gains 0.22 0.22 0.8 0.8 7.5 6.9 54.9
Historical level 0.22 0.32 -0.2 -0.2 4.5 5.9 51.7
Stangant productivity 0.22 0.35 -0.4 -0.4 4.0 5.7 51.1
Source: authors' estimates.
Relative to baseline
Employment Elasticity
Real GDP
Growth Rate
(in percent)
Medium-term
labor productivity
growth overall
Medium-term labor
productivity growth
in services
131. 23
social spending could further narrow the urban–rural income
gap while lifting the quality of the
labor force (Lam and Wingender, 2015).
he services sector will contribute to the sector’s
expansion by encouraging entry
and competition. Although increased competition may hurt
individual workers and firms, the
overall productivity gains will generate ample benefits by
creating jobs and raising income.
obstacles and clarify property rights,
which will speed up urbanization and encourage gainful
employment of migrant workers in urban
areas, where they will receive better social benefits (Annex 3).
Policy design and assessment would require timely and
comprehensive data. Data shortcomings
should be addressed to better reflect the underlying momentum.
For instance, wider coverage of
surveyed unemployment and the public release of labor and
household surveys would significantly
improve transparency, accountability, and policy research.
Better data collection and coverage of
migrant flows will go a long way toward improving the
understanding of China’s labor markets. The
authorities are taking steps to improve data quality, including
their intention to subscribe to the Special
Data Dissemination Standard and the plan to expand coverage
of the unemployment rate from 65
132. large cities to all prefecture-level cities at a monthly
frequency.20
VII. CONCLUSIONS
Maintaining stability in the labor market as China implements
structural reforms will be
important. So far, labor market conditions have been holding up
quite well despite the economic
slowdown. However, there are signs of increased labor hoarding
in overcapacity sectors. At the same
time, migrant flows between rural and urban employment rather
than measured unemployment are
more correlated with growth. While labor hoarding absorbs
some of the shock in the short term, if
sustained, it can undermine needed adjustment and hence the
more efficient allocation of resources
and stronger productivity growth.
Changes in rural–urban migration and the growing services
sector will have a profound impact
on labor markets in China. Empirical estimates find that
economic growth is a key contributing
factor toward the structural trends of a growing services sector
and rural–urban migrant flows. This
would imply that managing the growth slowdown will be
important for stabilizing labor markets as
structural reforms continue.
Quantitative analysis shows that delays in reforms could lead to
a weakening of labor market
conditions over the medium term. In particular, it would give
rise to a sustained increase in the
unemployment rate and could cause job creation to fall short of
policy targets. For a successful
economic transition toward sustainable growth, it is critical that
133. labor is reallocated to new growth
20 See news release from the State Council:
http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2014-
07/30/content_2727202.htm;
http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2015-06/11/content_2877913.htm;
and National Bureau of Statistics:
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/201506/t20150612_1158116.ht
ml.
24
sectors. Labor market mobility and increased productivity
should therefore be prioritized. In
particular, government should support labor market mobility
through on-budget, targeted social safety
nets and retraining programs and the acceleration of hukou
reforms, with less reliance on hoarding
labor in overcapacity sectors.
25
ANNEX 1. DATA STATISTICS ON CHINA’S LABOR
MARKETS
Labor market data in China are known to be far from ideal (Cai,
Du, and Wang, 2013), and
134. therefore may not fully reflect underlying conditions. Although
China reports key labor market
data, such as employment, wages, and unemployment rates, the
coverage and disclosure are
fairly limited (Annex Table 1.1). The official unemployment
rate was, for a long time, based
solely on self-registration by those seeking unemployment
insurance from local governments,
leaving a large share of workers not covered in the data. The
National Bureau of Statistics began
publishing surveyed unemployment rates on an occasional basis
in 2013 and plans to expand
coverage of the surveyed monthly unemployment rate from 65
large cities to all prefecture-level
cities at monthly frequency.
The registered unemployment rate has stayed at
4 percent for the past two decades without
significant variation, while the surveyed
unemployment rate was about 5 percent in late
2014. The volatility of the unemployment rate
relative to output is small compared to other
advanced countries (text chart). The rise of the
registered unemployment rate between 2001 and
2003 did not fully reflect the significant state-
sector restructuring that started in the mid-1990s.
One explanation is that laid-off workers
continued to receive support from the enterprises until the
centralized unemployment support
system was formally established in the early 2000s.
Many studies estimate underlying
unemployment based on various labor surveys
but with a margin as wide as 6 percentage
points.21 In addition, wage data mostly cover the
nonprivate sector, and are less representative
135. given that sector’s declining employment share.
Employment statistics across industries were
discontinued in 2010. Several labor and
household surveys, including those conducted
by the National Bureau of Statistics, are not
publicly available. These data deficiencies cloud
the assessment of employment conditions, and any conclusions
from the data is therefore subject
to caveats and limitations.
21 For instance, Meng (2012) uses the National Bureau of
Statistics’ annual Urban Household Survey, the Chinese
Household Income Project, and Rural-Urban Migration in China
and Indonesia Project data. The Urban Household
Survey uses sampling techniques to collect data (for example,
household income, consumption patterns,
demographic characteristics, and so forth) from nonagricultural
households across cities and counties.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
136. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
2012 2014
Official registered urban unemployment rate
Estimates based on Xue and Zhong (2003) 2/
Estimates based on population census and one-percent
household survey
Official surveyed unemployment rate based on 31 cities
Estimates based on Urban Labor Survey data
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, Urban Labor Survey,
Xue and Zhong (2003), and authors'
estimates.
Official and Estimates of Urban Unemployment Rates
(in percent)
26
137. Annex Table 1.1. Labor Market Statistics in China
Data Type Sources Variables Key Indicators Frequency
Coverage Remarks
‧Employment
Monthly, Quarterly,
and Annually
Covers nationwide with provincial and industrial data. Data
starting from 1952
‧Wage
Quarterly, and
Annually
Covers nationwide with provincial and city-level data. Data
starting from 1952
‧Migrant worker Quarterly Covers nationwide with national and
regional data. Data starting from 2008
NBS PMI ‧Employment index. Monthly
‧Registered Unemployment in Urban Areas Quarterly Covers
nationwide with provincial data. Data starting from 1980
‧Registered Unemployment Rate in Urban Areas Quarterly
Covers nationwide with provincial data. Data starting from 1980
Data on labor market conditions ‧Labor market Demand-Supply
Ratio Quarterly Covers main cities with city-level data.
Monitored by city community
138. employment services cente
(mostly on low-skilled labor)
SAIC (State Administration for
Industry and Commerce)
Data on the number of employed
persons in private enterprises and
self-employed individuals
‧Employment Annually
Employment in private enterprises and self-employed
individuals in both urban and rual areas.
Data starting from 1990
NBS Urban Household Survey (UHS) Detailed income and
expenditure information Annually Covers nationwide.
Limited availability to
academics for a few years
and a few provinces.
NBS Rural Household Survey (RHS) Detailed income and
expenditure information Annually Covers nationwide.
Limited availability to
academics for a few years
and a few provinces.
NBS Censuses and population survey Population data Every 10
years Covers nationwide.
No detailed labor market
information.
139. The China Institute for Income
Distribution of Beijing Normal
University.
China Income Project Surveys
(CHIPs)
Detailed data on individual income and labor
market information.
1988, 1995, 2002,
2007
A series of repeated cross-sections for year 1988,
1995 (for 6 provinces ) and 2002 (11 provinces),
2007. In 2002, it covers around 15000 rural and urban
households in 11 provinces and it also includeds 2000
non-random sampling of migrant workers.
Limited availability.
Carolina Population Center at
the University of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill and the National
Institute of Nutrition and Food
Safety at the Chinese Center for
Disease Control and Prevention
China Health and Nutrition Survey
(CHNS)
Detailed data on individual economic, demograph-
ic, social factor, health and nutritional status.
140. 1989, 1991, 1993,
1997, 2000, 2004,
2006, 2009, 2011
Panel data for 1989, 1991, 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004
and 2006. Covers 7 provinces and total of 4400
households, including rural and urban samples, but
without migrants.
Limited availability.
National School of Development,
Peking University
China Health and Retirement
Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)
Detailed income and health information of middle-
age and elderly people who are over 45 years old.
Starting from 2011,
every two years
Covers about 17000 persons in 10000 households. Limited
availability.
Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences (CASS)
China Urban Labor Survey(CULS) Detailed labor information
2001, 2005, 2010
Covers five cities with less than 3000 households,
including urban and migrant households. Repeated
cross-sections for 2001, 2005 and 2010.
Limited availability.
141. Australian National University
Rural-Urban Migration in China and
Indonesia (RUMiCI)
Detailed labor information Inititated in 2008
Consists of three samples in China: 8000 rural hukou
households, 5000 urban hukou households, and 5000
migrant households, in 15 cities in 9 provinces.
Limited availability.
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Ministry of
Human Resources and Social Security (MoHRSS), the State
Administration for Industry andCommerce (SAIC), and CEIC.
References: Cai, Du and Wang (2013).
Aggregate
data
Survey-
based data
Data on the employment services
and the change of labour force and
on the number of registered
unemployed persons in urban areas
are collected through the Reporting
Form System on Training and
Employment Statistics.
MoHRSS (Ministry of Human
Resources and Social Security)
NBS (Department of Population
and Employment Statistics, the
142. National Bureau of Statistics.)
Employment and wage data are
collected and compiled through the
Reporting Form System on Labour
Statistics, the Sample Survey
System on Labour Force, and the
System of Rural Social and
Economic Surveys.
ANNEX 2. A TALE OF TWO STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES
State-owned enterprises (SOEs), despite their shrinking role in
the economy, often provide
great insight into understanding China’s economic transition
and vulnerabilities. Some SOEs
ran losses in their core businesses, which motivated change and
investments in new (non-
core) areas even though the new investments could be
unprofitable. High levels of surplus
labor suggest that overall labor market conditions might not be
as resilient as the
unemployment rate would suggest.
One of the largest steel enterprises in the province of Hebei is
an SOE at the center of the
overcapacity sector. Yet the firm has not scaled back either
production or employment.
Instead, it expanded along vertical lines and diversified into
finance and real estate, and is
now faced with surplus labor (for example, as much as half of
current employment at the
Tangshan plant). Social considerations constrain the company
143. from laying off redundant
workers; instead, it intends to create new employment
opportunities over time by venturing
into new business activities (e-commerce, for instance). SOEs
also enjoy preferential access
to finance from the biggest banks (loose credit limits without
collateral and the ability to
borrow at below benchmark rates) and have increased their
financing abroad.
In contrast, a medium-sized textile SOE in Hebei is a “mini
China in transition.” Output of
cotton yard and textile cloth has fallen by half, while the SOE
has strived to improve quality
and productivity by upgrading machinery. The company hired
about 8,000 workers in 2014,
down from the peak of 30,000 in 2010. The local SOE bears
social responsibility for its
workers, guided by local governments, and increases wages by a
certain percentage each
year. About one-third of the textile SOE’s redundant workers
went back to their rural homes,
taking a lump sum package when they left. Another one-third
was reemployed in nearby
services, often with comparable or higher wages. The SOE also
offered a buy-out package to
older workers, paying them 80 percent of the minimum wage for
five years until they reached
retirement age. Rising wages also put pressure on the
competitiveness of the SOE’s core
business. The company indicates that it can cope with the rising
wage by moving production
plants to rural areas and upgrading its machinery. The SOE also
occupied sizable land
resources (with substantial unrealized gains), which could be
pledged to finance losses for
144. many years to come or could be leased or sold to generate
revenues.
28
ANNEX 3. HUKOU REFORMS UNDER THE THIRD PLENUM
BLUEPRINT
The government took additional steps in August 2014 to phase
out the household registration
system (hukou) that divides urban and rural households. The
ultimate objective is to give
100 million migrants residency status in cities by 2020, in line
with the urbanization target of
60 percent. The reform envisages providing migrants with better
access to health and
education benefits in cities, though how to finance the
additional spending remains uncertain.
Resident status in mega cities such as Beijing and Shanghai will
be strictly controlled. As of
April 2015, 14 provinces have issued work plans to implement
reforms, but few at coastal
areas that are more attractive for migrants.
Under the current plan, the objective is to (1) fold the current
hukou system into a standard
residency status, (2) put in place a scheme that determines
quotas and settlement
arrangements for cities, and (3) expand social services and
gradually equalize benefits
145. between residents and migrants.
As noted, residency in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai will
continue to be strictly
controlled under a point system (Annex Table 3.1). Migrants
may not obtain residency status
in those metropolises even after five years of having lived there.
Individuals who live in other
large cities outside their residency status location for more than
half a year can apply for a
residency identity, but will not yet be granted residency status
in that city. Residency identity
allows migrants and their dependents to enjoy the same
employment treatment (in principle),
and basic education and health care benefits, as those with
residency status. As they
gradually fulfill the conditions for residency status, they
become eligible for social benefits
such as housing and unemployment insurance.
Annex Table 3.1 Summary of Settlement Schemes and Quotas
for Cities
City-level Population Openness Criteria 2/
Towns and small
cities: County-level
communities
<500,000 Fully-open ‧Anyone who lives in a legal stable
residential unit (including rental unit)
146. ‧Legal and stable employment 1/
‧Live in a legal and stable residential unit (including rental unit)
1/
‧participate in city social security system for certain years (up
to 3 years)
‧Legal and stable employment up for a certain period
‧Live in a legal and stable residential unit (including rental unit)
1/
‧participate in city social security system for certain years
‧Same as large cities with 3 million or less but with tighter
conditions on
employment and residential units
‧participate in city social security system for certain years (up
to 5 years)
‧May introduce a point-based system to obtain residency
A point-baesd system for granting residency status based on:
‧Legal and stable employment up for a certain period
‧Live in a legal and stable residential unit (including rental unit)
1/
‧participate in city social security system for certain years
‧requires consecutive living duration
147. 1/ The preicse definition and duration of employment and living
area (except square footage and price) will be set in accordance
to individual cities.
2/ The applicant and spouse who lives together, and their
dependent children and parents can register for residency status
Large cities
Between 3 million
to 5 million
Graudally open but controls on
the scale and pace
Metropolitans 5 million or above
Strcit controls on the
population scale
Large cities
Between 1 million
to 3 million
Gradually open
Middle-level cities
Between 500,000
to 1 million
Graduallly open
29
148. Hukou reforms will need to be accompanied by fiscal, social
security, and rural land reforms.
The government will continue to rely on residency status as a
policy tool. The reforms are
intended to expand social services coverage and eligibility to
migrant workers (Du and others
2014). But the fiscal implications of this expanded coverage and
its financing, as well as the
criteria set by cities to attract or restrict migrant flows, are
uncertain. Ultimately, local
government revenues must be better aligned with spending
responsibilities, including
intergovernmental transfers. The government intends to provide
consolidated basic pensions
and basic health care nationally to improve portability.
30
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