- Paul Young CPA provides a summary of key topics related to China's economy, including GDP growth, trade, debt levels, consumption, climate change policies, and China's relationships with other countries. - The document outlines Paul Young's background and expertise in areas relevant to analyzing China's economy. - It then presents an agenda for discussing China's economic outlook, breaking down the topics into separate issues like GDP, debt, urban planning, and COVID-19's impact.

1. CHINA –
WHAT’S NEXT
FOR CHINA
Paul Young CPA, CGA
March 14, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. SUMMARY
▪ China is important country due to its size
▪ Caution needs to be taken when dealing with China. China has specific business
controls as it relates to business
▪ China growth is ½ what it was in the 1990s. India is now growing faster than China
▪ China is looking at investment outside of China into Africa, SE Asia, South America
and the Caribbean,
▪ China is pushing forward with the one-belt road to move goods to Europe
▪ China is moving more and more to electrical market for vehicles.
▪ China needs to clean up its labour, health and safety and environmental policies.
▪ The new USMCA agreement has one is refer to the China clause.

4. AGENDA
▪ GDP Growth
▪ Trade
▪ Debt
▪ Consumption
▪ Climate Change
▪ Canada and
China
▪ USA and China
▪ China and the
Caribbean
▪ China and South
America
• China and Africa
• USA and China
• Urban Planning
• Hong Kong / Laws
• Banking Sector
• Working with Colleges and Universities
• Income
• COVID19 / Virus
• eCommerce

5. DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA
Source - https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/trade/article/21159780/the-new-reality-of-doing-business-in-
china?utm_source=IY+IW+QM+News&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS210329048&o_eid=7930I4506489J2B
&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C7930I4506489J2B&oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B
Was it right to sell military-civil products to China? It felt slimy. “It’s the price we have to pay to play in China,” a senior
executive counseled me at that time.
Now, after more than two decades of free trade with China, U.S. policy is addressing this conflict of interest. In the last
week of Trump’s presidency, the Department of Defense blacklisted COMAC, alleging it has close ties to the Chinese
military. It appears President Biden won’t rescind the order, fueling speculation that COMAC-like dealings could be a
thing of the past as national security issues take precedence.
Foreign companies best get accustomed to this reality and devise new strategies to deal with China’s confluence of
business and politics. It’s also time for businesses to consider how doing business in China affects their public image.
“Public opinion against China is historically low in Western countries, and it’s just a matter of time when this starts to
impact a company’s brand value and goodwill,” Dr. Sari Arho Havrén, a fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies
in Berlin, told me.
Some of my American clients have already moved parts of their supply chains to Mexico and other geopolitically neutral
countries for the sole purpose of “looking good” to their customer base. One of my clients who recently moved some
operations to Vietnam and Malaysia told me that while China is still one of the best manufacturing locations, “we don’t
want to be seen fraternizing with the ‘enemy.’ I can sell ‘Made in Vietnam’ in the U.S., while selling ‘Made in China’ in
China, thereby not ruffling any feathers in either country.”
This ties nicely into my work in ESG/Sustainable Reporting - https://ibm.box.com/s/vmyitcackqevvm1hcxv7wke6gudrpnce

6. CHINA AND GDP GROWTH
Scotiabank – http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com
forecast_20220311.p
df
The Chinese
Economy in 2022 Issues Mount as Beijing Searches for Stability Nippon.com.pdf

7. TRADE / CHINA
1. China exports to the USA for 2021 may increase by 21% - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1217612.shtml
2. France wheat and China - https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/france-should-boost-wheat-quality-to-lift-china-
exports-cofco
3. China global exports surge - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-exports-surge-as-global-demand-recovers-from-
coronavirus-01615152077
4. Mineral exports from Australia - https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/in-one-australian-state-trade-with-china-is-still-
booming/
5. Global Trade – China with other countries - https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-by-country
6. China ramps up oil imports from Iran - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Ramps-Up-Oil-Imports-From-
Iran.html
7. China demand for natural gas - https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-pursuit-of-natural-gas-jolts-markets-and-drains-
neighbors-11614940203
8. Race to the battery production - https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Who-will-be-the-battery-
powerhouse-China-Japan-and-the-West-compete
9. Rare Earths - https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2021/03/02/china-shoots-itself-in-the-rare-earth-foot-
again/?sh=a78c3dc1db02
10. Steel production and the environment - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219095.shtml

8. TRADE
AGREEMENTS /
CHINA
Source -
https://www.industryweek.com/supply-
chain/article/21147833/worlds-largest-free-
trade-agreement-signed-in-coup-for-
china?oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B

9. CHINA GROWTH WILL ACCELERATE AS IT
GETS LEADERS WHO AREN'T SCARED:
FORMER PBOC ADVISOR
Source - http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/china-growth-will-accelerate-as-it-
gets-leaders-who-arent-scared-former-pboc-adviser.html
CNBC – June 27, 2017

10. CHINA AND EMERGING MARKETS
Source - http://marketrealist.com/2017/04/will-dragon-cause-worry-
global-markets/
China, of course, is a key source of concern in the EM space. A continued
slowdown in China will have a cascading effect on trade, commodity
prices, and investor confidence.
Meanwhile, rising interest rates in the US could make it harder for EM
economies to attract investments and could also lead to the local currency
(HEFA) depreciation.
At the same time, more geopolitical tensions could give rise to a sudden
spurt of risk aversion, which could cause a contagion in the EM space,
driving investors to flock toward safe-havens.
Marketrealist – April 18, 2017

11. CHINA – DEBT TO GDP, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
Source -
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-debt-
to-gdp
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/china/domestic-
credit-to-private-sector-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-hidden-local-government-debt-is-half-of-gdp-goldman-says-
1.1658904
China’s hidden local government debt has swelled to more than half the size of the economy, according to economists at
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who said the government will need to be flexible in dealing with this as revenue is already
under pressure due to a slowdown in land sales.
The total debt of local government financing vehicles rose to about 53 trillion yuan ($8.2 trillion) at the end of last year
from 16 trillion yuan in 2013, the economists wrote in a report. That’s equal to about 52% of gross domestic product and is
larger than amount of official outstanding government debt.

12. CORPORATE BOND
DEBT
Source -
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-
finance/article/3156366/chinese-corporate-
bond-defaults-likely-continue-increase
Chinese corporate
bond defaults likely to continue to increase in 2022, Moody’s says South China Morning Post.pdf

13. CHINA AND HOUSEHOLD
DEBT
Source - https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-11-06/chart-of-the-day-chinas-growing-
household-debt-101343512.html
• China’s household debt has built up rapidly over the
past decade as its gross domestic product (GDP) has
surged. The country’s household-debt-to-GDP ratio
increased from 17.9% in 2008 to 49% at the end of 2017,
according to the 2018 financial stability report
published by the People’s Bank of China. In the report,
the central bank said that policymakers need to keep a
close eye on the country’s rapidly increasing household
debt. However, China’s overall household debt doesn’t
stand out when compared with that of other countries.
• Chinese consumer debt-to-income ratio rose to 92 per
cent at the end of last year, up from only 30 per cent in
2008, according to the Institute of International Finance
The ratio is higher than the 86 per cent in Germany and
close to the levels of 97 per cent in the United States
and 100 per cent in Japan -
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/3021816/chinas-household-debt-has-
grown-so-much-trade-war-stimulus
• State and local government debt -
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-local-
government-debts-should-be-the-real-worry

14. CHINA DEBT
• China / Debt holders - https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-much-money-does-the-world-owe-china “In total, the
Chinese state and its subsidiaries have lent about $1.5 trillion in direct loans and trade credits to more than 150
countries around the globe. This has turned China into the world’s largest official creditor — surpassing
traditional, official lenders such as the World Bank, the IMF, or all OECD creditor governments combined.”
• China and Bankruptcies - https://supchina.com/2020/04/09/more-than-240000-chinese-companies-declare-
bankruptcy-in-the-first-two-months-of-2020/
• USA and China - https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355 “The U.S.
debt to China was $1.09 trillion through February 2020.1 That's more than 15% of the $7.06 trillion in Treasury
bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $24 trillion national debt is owned either by the
American people or by the U.S. government itself.”
• Chinese Bonds - https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/bond-investors-swarm-to-china-a-safe-harbor/
• Rural Debt issues - https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Half-built-palaces-and-towers-expose-rural-China-s-debt-risk
• China Debt - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-big-banks-face-bad-210000223.html

15. CHINA DEBT AND TRADE
Source - https://www.industryweek.com/economy/china-growth-momentum-stalls-debt-campaign-and-trade-war-bite?NL=IW-07&Issue=IW-07_20180814_IW-
07_208&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_5&utm_rid=CPG03000001519274&utm_campaign=28515&utm_medium=email&elq2=0f9d987d06354a3b9299297513af16ca
China’s economy hit a mid-year rough patch as efforts to curb risky lending and excessive debt collided
with a deepening trade war, adding to concerns about global growth.
Fixed-asset investment in the world’s largest developing economy rose at the slowest pace in two
decades in the first seven months of this year, while infrastructure spending slumped to a quarter of
the pace of a year earlier. Factory output, retail sales and credit creation in July all trailed estimates.
China’s economy is now losing momentum just as it braces for a protracted trade conflict with the U.S.,
and those pressures show no sign of dissipating. Officials have vowed to boost lending to smaller
companies and support for infrastructure investment, but the pressure is mounting on them to do
more.
"The Chinese economy will get worse before getting better," said Lu Ting, chief China economist at
Nomura International Ltd. in Hong Kong. "It takes several months to turn around. Beijing will step up
credit easing and fiscal measures to deliver a recovery and prevent financial troubles such as a rise of
bond defaults."

16. CORPORATE DEBT
Source - https://www.reuters.com/business/china-evergrandes-snowballing-
debt-crisis-2021-09-14/

17. CHINA GDP AND INCOME GROWTH
▪ Morgan Stanley and Michael Pettis differ on what China’s sustainable economic growth rate is over the
next ten to fifteen years China. Morgan Stanley, however, proposes that China can manage to grow at
an average annual rate above 5 percent for the next ten years, which suggests that they think this
sustainable growth rate today is around 6 percent or a little less. Pettis thinks China is unlikely to
manage growth rates above 3 percent on average, and probably much lower.
▪ Key Metrics for China’s future economic growth
▪ A* China’s Debt to GDP is about 260% now – China can keep pushing GDP growth until debt to GDP
is about 350% of GDP. Then it will be whatever the natural sustainable GDP growth rate level is
▪ * The Sustainable growth rate for the next 10-15 years seems to be between 3 to 5%
▪ * If China can get private consumption up from about $5 trillion now to $12-15 trillion in 2025 then
China will be able to sustain a higher GDP growth rate level
▪ Morgan Stanley thinks that by 2030, household disposable income will reach $8,700; the median
age will rise to 43, and internet penetration will increase to 75%; compared to $5,000, 37 years old,
and 52%, respectively, in 2016.
Next Big Future – April 30, 2017

18. CHINA DEBT
▪ March’s 2.1 trillion renminbi increase in debt was part of a 7.0 trillion renminbi
increase in debt in the first quarter of 2017, an amount equal to an astonishing 39
percent of the country’s first quarter GDP. Part of this increased lending was used
simply to roll over bad debt that is not being recognized. But most of it went to fund
a 13.6 percent increase in public sector investment.
▪ Pettis thinks the increase in debt was needed to add the 3–4 percentage points. He
assumes this is the minimum gap between China’s sustainable growth rate and its
actual growth rate. Morgan Stanley—and anyone else who believes that China can
manage a decade or more of 5 percent growth is saying the large debt boosts
growth by only one percentage point above the rate China can achieve anyway
without relying on debt.
Next Big Future – April 30, 2017

19. SLOW GDP GROWTH
Source -
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/chinas-
economic-slowdown-deepens-weighing-on-global-growth-240612/

20. CHINA / DEBT
Source - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/china-s-debt-laden-dealmakers-eyed-by-restructuring-specialists
Chinese deal makers that racked up debts for overseas deals and are now reversing course to pay down
borrowings have attracted the attention of restructuring specialists.
As President Xi Jinping steps up leverage curbs, borrowing costs in China have jumped.
The nation’s most high-profile deal makers including HNA Group Co. have come under mounting
regulatory scrutiny, and have been selling assets as they try to rein in borrowings. HNA missed
payments to several Chinese banks and its bond yields have in recent months traded at times at levels
that are often considered distressed.
“Chinese companies have been active in overseas acquisitions in recent years and some of their
investments have not panned out,” said Damien Whitehead, partner at law firm Ashurst, without naming
any specific companies. “Some of these companies are in a tight liquidity situation and their debt may
need to be restructured.”

21. CHINA – PRIVATE INVESTMENT
Next big future – April 30, 2017

22. CHINA AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT
▪ More reforms in the energy sector as part of re-focus on energy
▪ More P3 when it comes infrastructure spending
▪ More reforms in other areas as part of accessing more Foreign Direct
Invest (FDI)

23. GLOBAL PROTECTIONISM
▪ http://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/news/breaking-news/rise-in-global-
protectionism-could-adversely-affect-the-global-economy--report-66056.aspx
Zurich Insurance also warned businesses that benefit from global trade that
they may be pushed into restructuring their supply chains in order to address
potential disruptions to their manufacturing and retail operations.
“We are in a period of geopolitical uncertainty, which can create a volatile
business environment for companies connected to global markets, whether it is
as a multinational corporation with overseas manufacturing and retail facilities
or a regional operation with global suppliers,” said Bryan Salvatore, head of
specialty products for Zurich North America.

24. CHINA AND CANADA
Source - http://dawsonstrat.com/2017/06/12/the-canada-china-trade-relationship/
Currently, China is Canada’s third largest trading partner, with two-way bilateral trade between
the countries totaling $85.9 billion in 2015. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has indicated a desire
to double trade between Canada and China before 2025, and steps have been taken to that end.
In February 2017, an inaugural round of talks on a potential free trade agreement between
Canada and China took place.
The Canada-China FIPA lays the groundwork for an eventual Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two
nations. It is suggested that such an FTA would increase Canadian exports to China by almost $7.7 billion, as
well as Canadian GDP by approximately $7.8 billion (or 0.14 percent) by 2030. This would translate to the
creation of 25,000 Canadian jobs across all skill levels.
Though engagement in exploratory talks does not guarantee a Canada-China FTA, it is evident that both
countries are working to strengthen the relationship and recognize the potential advantages of stronger ties
with each other.

25. CANADA AND CHINA - FIPA
Source - https://thetyee.ca/News/2012/10/19/Chinese-Trade-Deal/
Canada signed a FIPA deal with China in 2012. FIPA deals are important as they build in
protection for businesses. No trade deal can be completed unless FIPA is part of the deal
• Not once does Trudeau ever mention FIPA
• China wants access to Canada’s Natural Resources, i.e. Oil, LNG, Metals, Forest Products, lithium, vanadium, etc.
• Canada lacks the capacity to exports. Trudeau government continues to moved forward with C69 (more regulation
when it comes to approving Natural Resources Projects)
• The new USMCA agreement has clauses - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/usmca-nafta-china-trade-1.4852269
• China has not embraced WTO as they claim they are still an emerging market -
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2168402/will-china-change-its-trade-behaviour-us-representative-wto-
sceptical
• China and Canola - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wheat-canola-china-canada-trade-1.5263313

26. CANADA AND CHINA MERCHANDISE
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/exports/china

27. CANADA AND CHINA MERCHANDISE
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/imports/china

28. CHINA AND CANADA TRADE
Source – Stats Canada

29. TRADE WARS / CHINA
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/china-tries-to-defuse-trade-pressure-says-world-benefits-215270/
China’s government defended its trade record as a benefit to the world in a new effort Thursday to defuse
U.S. and European pressure over market access and technology policy.
A Cabinet report repeated promises to cut tariffs and open more industries to investment. But it didn’t
address complaints about plans to create Chinese global technology competitors that are at the heart of a
spiraling trade dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump.
China’s growth “has brought great opportunities to trading partners all over the world,” Deputy Commerce
Minister Wang Shouwen said at a news conference.
The report highlights the clash between Beijing’s insistence it has honoured market-opening promises
made when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 and arguments by Washington, Europe and
others that Beijing improperly hampers access to emerging industries and steals or pressures foreign
companies to hand over technology.
Trump’s threat of tariff hikes on up to US$450 billion of Chinese products reflects fears Beijing’s plans are
a threat to American technological leadership and prosperity. China has tried to recruit Europe as an ally in
the dispute but faces complaints by Germany and other governments that it bars purchases of Chinese
assets while its own companies are on a global acquisition spree.

30. CHINA AND TRUDEAU
Trudeau admires China basic dictatorship
• China tells Trudeau to stop on human
rights issues
https://globalnews.ca/news/3948597/chi
na-cant-stand-justin-trudeaus-talk-of-
human-rights-diversity-ian-bremmer/
• Trudeau also pissed off India with his
approach to foreign policy
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/andrew
-scheer-india-trip-1.4793154
• Trudeau has pissed of two economies that
will see growth 6%. Trudeau does not
seem to care who he pisses off

31. TRUDEAU AND CHINA

32. BLOG – CHINA AND CANADA TRADE
▪ Here is a bit more on Trade:
▪ I am for supporting trade as long those deals are fair and equitable to Canada. Here are things to consider when deal with China in terms of investment and Trade:
▪ Canada has a trade deficit of $16-17B with China - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170504/dq170504c-eng.pdf
▪ Trudeau and Protectionism - https://www.spencerfernando.com/2017/12/06/deception-trudeau-purposefully-trying-deceive-canadians-china/
▪ No more admiration - https://globalnews.ca/news/3899392/trudeau-admires-most-not-china/
▪ China wants Canada natural resources - https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/19698/ China has abysmal environmental record - https://www.ft.com/content/e22dd988-3ed9-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2
▪ Manufacturing sector is already under pressure as such trade agreements with countries like china that have poor labour and environmental regulations only handcuffs Canadian companies in
their ability to compete - http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-china-trade-deal-would-decimate-canadian-workers-industries-628447033.html
▪ China has no interest with Trudeau’s social agenda - https://www.spencerfernando.com/2017/12/04/fool-naive-trudeau-tricked-china-press-conference-cancelled-last-minute/
▪ McKenna tried to push anti-coal on China and China said no - http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/china-not-able-to-join-canada-u-k-coal-phase-out-alliance-mckenna-1.3708186
▪ China is moving forward with their own plans in terms of accessing key raw materials like oil - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-does-government-keep-gold-reserves
▪ China wants Canadian oil - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/china-investment-oilsands-jim-carr-1.4152520. The problem is getting oil to China - https://www.bnn.ca/kinder-morgan-
canada-down-4-after-more-potential-pipe-delays-1.935031 (Kinder Morgan is no further along then it was when approved in late 2016)
▪ Trump went to China as such completed deals - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-09/breaking-down-the-250-billion-china-deals-trump-got-for-america as compare to
Trudeau who got nothing done - https://globalnews.ca/news/3894897/justin-trudeau-canada-china-trade-talks/
▪ Australia and China Trade Agreement -“One of the main sticking points was a temporary worker memorandum of understanding in the agreement, which caused a backlash from parts of the
Australian population that feared an influx of cheap Chinese labour” http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-11/15/c_136752488.htm or https://www.asiapacific.ca/canada-asia-
agenda/china-australia-free-trade-agreement-lessons-canada
▪ China is important market, but any further advancement into trade agreements needs to be done in careful manner. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/china-future-november-2017

33. CHINA AND CARBON TAX
Source - https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/china-ramps-up-advance-toward-february-carbon-market-launch.html
China issued regulations for its long-delayed carbon emissions trading system 5 January, ramping up preparations for
the 1 February launch of what will be the world's largest such market. The initial compliance phase, which is
scheduled to kick off 1 February, will cover carbon dioxide pollution from 2,225 power plants that each emit more
than 26,000 mt/year.
Once the power sector is enrolled, the market will gradually be extended to cement, steel, and other carbon-heavy
industries. The emissions trading scheme (ETS) is expected to eventually cover some 7,000 companies—all of which
will be required to buy and trade allowances, and ensure they do not exceed government-set limits.
But unlike other emissions trading systems that set hard and increasingly stringent caps on total emissions, China will
limit how much carbon plants may emit for each kilowatt-hour of electricity they produce. Some critics say such
carbon intensity limits won't guarantee pollution reductions at fossil fuel-fired plants that meet the new
requirements by becoming more efficient.

34. CHINA AND USA
▪ https://www.uschina.org/reports/us-exports/national

35. CHINA AND VIRUSES
1. Bats and Viruses - https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-
hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ “The epidemic is one of the
worst to afflict the world in recent decades. Scientists have long warned that the rate of
emergence of new infectious diseases is accelerating—especially in developing countries
where high densities of people and animals increasingly mingle and move about.”
2. China and Government control -
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

36. CHINA AND WORLD SUPPLY CHAIN
▪ Businesses moved their models to low costing producing countries as part of the
overall supply chain. The problem is too many low-cost producing countries have issues
with their environment, water, land, forest management –
▪ Source - https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/30/opinion/end-global-supply-chain/

37. CHINA AND THE CARIBBEAN
▪ New highway Jamaica - https://america.cgtn.com/2016/03/23/730m-chinese-built-highway-
opens-in-jamaica
▪ Bauxite Mines - http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/business-observer/pm-wants-improved-
trading-between-jamaica-china_178391?profile=1442
▪ China and Ports / Bahamas - https://www.rollcall.com/2019/03/25/caribbean-islands-
becoming-hot-spots-for-chinese-investment/ or https://www.portandterminal.com/is-china-
setting-up-caribbean-ports-for-economic-blackmail/
▪ China and Cuba - http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/20/c_137481986.htm
▪ FDI - https://www.statista.com/statistics/748563/fdi-caribbean/

38. CHINA AND SOUTH AMERICA
▪ China continues to make key investments in South America - http://www.obela.org/en-analisis/chinas-trade-and-fdi-in-latin-america
▪ China and loans – “For the fourth consecutive year, China’s two main banks tasked with financing overseas development have reduced loans to
Latin America, according to new research from Boston University and thinktank the Inter-American Dialogue. China Development Bank (CBD) and
the Import-Export Bank of China (China Exim) lent US$1.1 billion to the region in 2019, down from $2.1 billion the previous year and the lowest
annual amount for a decade. "Source - https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/11982-China-continues-to-cut-back-Latin-America-
loans
▪ China investing in ethanol plants - https://www.reuters.com/article/cofco-sugar-ethanol/cofco-expands-ethanol-capacity-in-brazil-sees-sugar-
prices-flattened-idUSL2N27D0PK
▪ China imports of Wine - https://nhglobalpartners.com/how-to-enter-the-wine-market-in-china-strategies-and-recommendations/
▪ Chile and China infrastructure projects - https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/chile-wooing-china-with-us18bn-in-public-sector-projects
▪ Chile and Lithium - https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/09/24/business/chile-china-japan-lithium-investment/#.Xsul-cB7lPY
▪ Brazil / Soya beans - https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/south-america-calling/blog-post/2019/08/07/china-investing-brazil-ag
▪ Farmland / China - https://www.farmlandgrab.org/post/view/27910-china-started-to-buy-aggressively-agriculture-land-abroad

39. CHINA AND AFRICA
▪ China investments in Africa - https://qz.com/africa/1825914/chinas-investment-in-africa-
more-influential-than-uk-france/
▪ China transforming of Africa - https://qz.com/1550626/chinas-investment-will-allow-
africa-to-lead-the-22nd-century/
▪ More than a land grab -
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/04/29/commentary/world-
commentary/china-africa-land-grab/#.XsunjsB7lPY
▪ Debt / Africa –” Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China has steadily increased its direct
lending to developing countries – often with draconian conditions attached. Debt
moratoria during the pandemic, while important, will not solve this problem.”
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-africa-debt-relief-china-by-
paola-subacchi-2021-01

40. URBAN PLANNING
▪ China and Sri Lanka - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-and-rural-
planning-whats-next-236315321 (see slide 16)
▪ Belt Road Projects - https://www.beltandroad.news/2019/04/06/10-amazing-belt-and-
road-initiative-projects/
▪ Projects around the world by the Chinese Construction and Engineering Company -
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2020-02/21/content_75738889.htm
▪ China control over construction projects -
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/sectors/straddling-world-snapshot-chinas-
command-over-glob/

41. CHINA AND COVID19
▪ Road to a vaccine - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/race-for-covid19-vaccine
▪ China is buying up assets - https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/chinese-gold-miner-hopes-to-
buy-western-nunavut-gold-mine/ - China always has stipulations that their workers must be
employed at the plants, mines, etc. China is basically import labor as part of managing the
economic impact.
▪ China could buy up undervalue assets due to COVID19 -
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3085534/us-senators-urge-
safeguards-keep-china-buying
▪ Funding of Universities in USA - https://www.inquirer.com/education/china-funding-us-colleges-
universities-trade-tensions-20200207.html
▪ Australia and China – “Politics driving the two countries apart, but trade is drawing them together
- https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-and-Australia-s-relationship-is-souring-but-not-
weakening

42. USA AND CHINA
▪ China has not lived up to their trade agreement - https://seekingalpha.com/news/3588566-china-lags-targets-
for-u-s-goods-purchases-under-trade-deal-
wsj?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=uso-china-lags-targets-for-u-s-goods-
purchases-under-trade-deal-wsj&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-2
▪ Obama tried to devalue to Chinese currency which did not work -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2011/01/25/president-obamas-strategic-blunder-with-
china/#605631293288 or Obama had very limited success with fixing trade issues between China and USA -
https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/trade/article/21974236/it-is-time-to-stand-up-to-china
▪ No president was able to bring in WTO reforms - https://www.epi.org/publication/issuebriefs_ib137/
▪ Clinton pushed for China to joined the WTO - https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-the-world-opened-the-
gates-of-china-1532701482. WTO needs to be reformed - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wto-and-
protectionism-september-2018
▪ Joe Biden and China - https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140306/us-trade-deals-90s-set-china-pollution-
haven

43. CHINA AND HONG KONG
▪ China imposes new laws on Hong Kong -
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/02/886587827/as-china-imposes-new-hong-kong-law-u-s-
and-allies-take-steps-to-retaliate
▪ UN rights council - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/at-un-human-rights-council-53-back-chinas-
hong-kong-crackdown
▪ China told Western Leaders to stay out of their business - https://www.trtworld.com/asia/china-tells-
foreign-critics-none-of-your-business-on-hong-kong-law-37763
▪ Chinese has allot of clout with countries - https://www.economist.com/finance-and-
economics/2020/07/04/the-poorest-countries-may-owe-less-to-china-than-first-thought

44. AUSTRALIA / CHINA
▪ State of Victoria / Belt Road - https://www.scmp.com/week-
asia/politics/article/3085484/australias-victoria-state-pushing-ahead-belt-and-road-plans
▪ Australia is refocusing its foreign policies in terms of Southeast Asia -
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-11/australia-vulnerable-neighbours-alliances-
china-us/12442732
▪ Farmers call for separation between foreign policy and trade -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/25/australian-farmers-call-for-separation-
between-foreign-relations-and-trade-ties-with-china

45. BANKING SECTOR / CHINA
▪ “For a long time, policymakers have conspicuously given the banking sector preferential
treatment. The large gap in interest rates for deposits and loans has created a lucrative
cushion, making banking one of the most profitable sectors. From 1996 to 2018, China’s
one-year lending interest rate was, on average, 3.1 percentage points higher than the
deposit rate. At its widest, the gap was 3.6 percentage points, and has remained at 2.85
percentage points since 2014. Along with rapid economic growth, China has experienced
a decade-long banking spree. According to the China Banking Association, commercial
banks made a combined net profit of 1.83 trillion yuan (US$234 billion) in 2018, about 10
times the 2004 figure. But, under the surface, the banking sector is facing mounting
pressure from bad loans as economic growth slows and profits peter out .”Source -
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3044148/chinas-banking-debt-crisis-
ticking-time-bomb-must-be-defused-urgent

46. CHINA WORKING WITH FOREIGN
EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS
▪ China used grants and other methods to recruit scientists to work for them –
https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20191213144459914 or
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/us/politics/harvard-yale-foreign-funding.html
▪ CSIS has highlighted concerns of China trying to recruit Canadian scientists -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-csis-warns-about-chinas-efforts-to-recruit-canadian-
scientists/
▪ USA academics and foreign grants - https://www.sciencemag.org/careers/2019/09/us-academics-make-
sure-you-know-rules-about-foreign-funding-and-affiliations
▪ Theft of IP - https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2020/07/07/china-theft-of-us-information-ip-
one-of-largest-wealth-transfers-in-history-fbi-chief/#425b29df4440
What’s next?
• All colleges and universities must provide details of all source of funding to their various federal government
• WTO needs to take stronger stands with China in terms of IP/Patent protection
• All trade and investment deal must include patent and IP protection

47. INCOME / CHINA
Source -
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/11/ch
inas-newest-plan-targets-moderate-
developed-nation-income-level-by-
2035.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_
medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bl
ogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture
%29

48. Source - https://www.industryweek.com/the-
economy/article/21153823/china-factory-
activity-slows-slightly-on-new-covid19-
wave?utm_source=IY+IW+Daily+Headlines+-
+Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign
=CPS210129100&o_eid=7930I4506489J2B&rdx.i
dent%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C7930I4506489J2B
&oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B
CHINA AND
MANUFACTURING
Factory activity in China slowed slightly in January, official data
showed Sunday, as the country rushed to stamp out a recent
coronavirus wave in northern China.
The purchasing managers' index (PMI), a key gauge of
manufacturing activity, came in at 51.3 this month, as the
world's second-largest economy tightened Covid-19
precautions ahead of the Lunar New Year.
The figure was slightly below December's reading of 51.9,
although still above the 50-point mark separating growth from
contraction.

49. ECOMMERCE
There is an indelible link between the 2003 SARS epidemic and the rise of e-
commerce in China. As the SARS outbreak spread throughout the country, the
population faced circumstances similar to those of 2020: a homebound population
paired with increasingly accessible devices and internet connectivity. China’s
embryonic e-commerce sector filled the void, most notably by the iconic
emergence of Taobao—an online retail platform run by Alibaba. By 2005, founder
Jack Ma led the company to begin marking that period with Ali Day, an annual
celebration of the commitment of its four hundred employees working from home
to keep the platform afloat. Around the same time, Richard Liu closed his chain of
consumer-electronics stores and formed JD.com. These two companies heralded
the country’s move to online retailing and advanced logistics networks. When
Alibaba and JD.com launched their platforms in 2003, China had around 79.5
million internet users (6 percent of the population). Today, in part fueled by the
coronavirus pandemic, that number has exploded to 904 million (64.5 percent of
the population).
Source - https://www.brookings.edu/articles/will-chinas-e-commerce-reshape-a-
reopening-world/
Overall: What We Can Learn from E-commerce in China
China’s integrated ecosystems merge search, social, and retail. -
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/what-we-can-learn-e-commerce-china
▪ Here is my work on eCommerce -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ecommerce-what-is-next

50. PMI INDEX – CHINA
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/china/manufacturing-pmi
1. World Solar -
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/ren
ewables/how-china-beat-three-u-s-presidents-to-
become-the-worlds-solar-champion
2. MFG - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-
economy/article/3136088/chinas-manufacturers-
braced-drop-orders-coronavirus-outbreak
3. Lithium -
https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/a
uto-components/tsingshan-to-build-1-6-bln-lithium-
battery-plant-in-southern-china/81843246
4. China State Government and Innovation -
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-
economics/2021/06/05/the-chinese-state-is-
pumping-funds-into-private-equity
5. Investment -
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/covid-could-
drive-manufacturing-back-to-china-2021-05-31

51. SUMMARY
▪ China has become more and more isolated from the world due to is internal politics -
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/2168294/attempt-isolate-china-world-trade-system-
will-not-work-says
▪ WTO needs to stop calling China an emerging market as such needs to get tougher when it comes to China’s
labor, environment and other unfair business practices - https://theconversation.com/myth-busted-chinas-status-
as-a-developing-country-gives-it-few-benefits-in-the-world-trade-organisation-124602
▪ China is one of the top consuming countries of raw materials. China leads the world in emissions -
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6 or https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/only-2-
countries-are-meeting-their-climate-pledges-heres-how-the-10-worst-could-improve (Dirty Coal and other bad
practices when it comes to the environment
▪ China needs to be more open and transparent when it comes to handling of viruses – WHO needs to do more in
terms of audits - https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/25/blame-china-and-xi-jinping-for-coronavirus-pandemic/
▪ More and more countries need to re-look at how they source and produce product within their own border
including their taxation, regulation, skills trades, etc. https://www.industryweek.com/the-
economy/trade/article/21121070/reshoring-at-record-levels-is-it-enough
▪ Global Economy - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-october-
2020 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-january-2021
Blog – China and its path to Global Domination
The Chinese
Economy in 2022 Issues Mount as Beijing Searches for Stability Nippon.com.pdf
forecast_20220311.p
df
Russia seeking
military aid from China, says US official Military News Al Jazeera.pdf
Traders Ditch Yuan,
Snap Up Bonds as Lockdown Adds to China Woes - BNN Bloomberg.pdf
U.S. Slaps More
Sanctions On China Over Abuse Of Uyghur Muslims.pdf
Key China-Russia oil
and gas deals, joint projects and energy investments Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.pdf
China vows carbon
capture and storage to enhance oil recovery at oldest field Upstream Online.pdf
China's Shenzhen
lockdown of 17.5M closes Apple factory, risks supply chain Fortune.pdf
China manufacturing
grows weakly in February - Japan Today.pdf
Market imbalances
for rare earths persist - Fastmarkets.pdf
China Sets $63 Billion
to Pay Subsidies Owed to Renewables Firms Financial Post.pdf
China-backed
Malaysia megacity project struggles to gain momentum - Nikkei Asia.pdf
‘Two sessions’ 2022
with China’s debt and economic outlooks on tap for policy-setting meetings, analysts weigh in South China Morning
The inflation outlook
Four futures for US inflation Deloitte US.pdf
China's new covid
lockdowns could result in more inflation — Quartz.pdf
Summary:
Supply chains are still very dependent on China.
China and Russia control significant parts of critical metals market.
China continues to struggle with debt issues
1. Russia and China - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/14/us-official-russia-seeking-
military-aid-from-china
2. China woes - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/traders-ditch-yuan-snap-up-bonds-as-lockdown-
adds-to-china-woes-1.1737146
3. Sanctions - https://www.rferl.org/a/united-states-china-uyghurs-sanctions/31612645.html
4. China and Russia - https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/key-china-russia-oil-and-gas-deals-
joint-projects-and-energy-investments/
5. Enhanced oil recovery - https://www.upstreamonline.com/environment/china-vows-carbon-
capture-and-storage-to-enhance-oil-recovery-at-oldest-field/2-1-1183926
6. COVID - https://fortune.com/2022/03/14/china-shenzhen-lockdown-covid-foxconn-apple-
supply-chain/
7. Manufacturing - https://japantoday.com/category/business/china-manufacturing-grows-
weakly-in-february

52. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
▪ If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning and
development, then feel
free to review my
material on
https://www.udemy.com
/ (search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
▪ These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to
economy including
government policies