Elections 2014: Political and Electoral Panoramas
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Brazilian Economics Seminar "Elections 2014: Political and Electoral Panoramas" - July 25, 2014 - Presentation by Carlos Pereira The proximity of the October elections opens a unique opportunity to discuss the political and electoral landscape of Brazil. FGV's Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) held, on July 25, a meeting with experts of Political Science. View the presentation by Carlos Pereira, professor at FGV's Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (FGV/EBAPE).
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Elections 2014: Political and Electoral Panoramas
- 1. Eleições 2014 Carlos Pereira | 2014 ELEIÇÕES2014Panoramas Político e Eleitoral Coalition Management and Elections in Brazil
- 2. Coalition Management and Elections in Brazil Carlos Pereira
- 3. Legislative Support of the President 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 Legislative support Legislative support (tendency) FHC Lula Dilma
- 4. Sustainable Democracy in a Multiparty Presidential Regime • Comparing with the two previous legislatures, Dilma has achieved the smallest average of legislative support, 44% of the Chamber of Deputies (Lula1=51% and Lula2 50%) or 62% of legislators, in fact, present during the roll call voting (Lula1=74.4% and Lula2=70.2%). • However, Dilma’s coalition management profile has been very similar to Lula’s. P u z z l e Why has president Dilma’s legislative supporting waning so rapidly? R e s e a r c h Q u e s t i o n
- 5. Coalition management and governability In a coalition-based presidential system the executive has to face at least three interconnected tradeoffs: 1. Coalition size (number of players) • Small versus large 2. Coalition ideology (preferences) • Homogeneous versus heterogeneous 3. Participation of coalition members in cabinet (weight) • More proportional versus more monopolistic
- 7. Measuring managerial performance (coalition management vs governability) • Governability measure = Legislative support • Coalition measures: – Size measure = percentage of parties represented in chamber which are part of coalition – Heterogeneity measure = coefficient of variation of coalition parties ideology (Zucco and Power 2012) – Proportionality measure = coalescence rate (Amorim Neto 2006) • Popularity = Best/good – bad/worst (Datafolha)
- 8. Popularity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency) FHC Lula Dilma
- 9. Coalition Size -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency) FHC Lula Dilma
- 10. Coalition Proportionality -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency) FHC Lula Dilma
- 11. Coalition Ideological Heterogeneity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency) FHC Lula Dilma
- 12. A closer look at Dilma’s administration 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency) Lula Dilma
- 13. Power sharing and legislative support 45 3 3 6 4 17 3 3 26 2 4 10 8 23 12 1319 1 -1 -4 -4 -6 -9 -10 72 56 66 61 59 55 50 55 Cabinet Share Seat share (considering only coalition) Coalition Surplus Legislative support to government Linear (Coalition Surplus) Linear (Legislative support to government)
- 14. • Number of Ministerial and bureaucratic positions • Natural log of total spending with the appropriation of legislative amendments to the annual budget (Pork) • Natural log of the total spending of ministerial positions • Data is available from January 2001 to December 2011 (132 months) • Factorial analysis with decomposition of the principal components 13 Coalition Costs Number Cabinet Positions Ministerial SpendingPork Governability Cost Index - GCI
- 15. Costs vs. Support - Efficiency ratio Governability Costs Index - GCI Legislative Support (dots) Efficiency ratio (red line = 1) Efficiency ratio = legislative support divided by GCI.