The document provides analysis and recommendations on commodity markets. It suggests selling gold and silver on rallies as the bearish trend continues. It also recommends selling mentha oil and silver futures contracts. The document notes that comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen could increase volatility in commodity markets. Economic data releases that day include retail sales, import prices and business inventories from the US and surveys from Germany.

1. Business Inventories and Commodity Tips
Gold Mcx Commodity is trading at $1307 and we believe overall bearish trend which has been seen for
the past several months is in progress and we recommend selling from higher levels. We had an idea
about $1355 as resistance levels for Comex Gold though markets made a high of $1345 last week and
then declined so possibly the bearish trend is again confirmed. Locally too, we are shifting our strategy
to sell whereas into the different Gold contracts, we continue to maintain our stance that Contango
between MCX Aug-Oct Gold may further narrow after the FM refrained from cutting Import duty in
Budget. So traders can sellAug-Buy Oct on pullbacks for short-term. Also a same strategy can be
followed between MCX/ACE Gold wherein MCX would remain a sell though ACE Gold Hedge a buy in
very short-term Global Market Analysis: Our view on Bullion went wrong last day. We were unable to
judge the positive development over EU-Portugal banks, Israel’s progress whereas the US stocks rose to
another record. Comex gold crashed about $40 from day’s high. Meanwhile, euro-zone IP number
coming in-line with estimates also pulled markets lower. Asian markets are trading positive this
morning; the USD index is trading a bit down near 80.20.From the economic data front today, we have
the Zew survey from the GE, EU and from the US we have empire manufacturing index and retail sales .
Silver Commodity we had a similar outlook in silver commodity as with gold yesterday wherein we
maintained moderate buying in the commodity. With our bias in base metals too standing mostly
positive, we also advised traders to look for selling the Gold/Silver Ratio for small profits and hold for a
day or two. Nevertheless, our view there too went against us as silver underperformed gold marginally
and probably traders might be sitting with some loss. As with the fresh view now completely seen on
the different side, we advice those holding Gold/Silver Ratio sell to exit with loss while in intraday we
recommend selling silver on pullbacks both India and international markets. Traders note that key event
today for Bullion would be Fed Chair, Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
Her comments over interest rate, economy and inflation may infuse high volatility in broader markets
including Bullion tonight.
Commodity Tips
SELL MENTHA OIL MCX JUL BELOW 700 SL 710 TGT 690-681
SELL SILVER MCX SEP BELOW 44980 SL 45200 TGT 44600-44300
Today Economic Data Indicators:
DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
15.07.14 11:30 JN Machine Tool Order YoY Jun F --- 34.2
15.07.14 14:00 UK CPI MoM Jun 0.0 -0.1
15.07.14 14:00 UK CPI YoY Jun 1.7 1.5
15.07.14 14:00 UK CPI Core YoY Jun 1.8 1.6
15.07.14 14:30 GE Zew Survey Current Situation Jul 67.9 67.7
15.07.14 14:30 GE Zew Survey Expectations Jul 30.0 29.8
15.07.14 14:30 EC Zew Survey Expectations Jul ---
15.07.14 18:00 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Jun 0.6 0.3
15.07.14 18:00 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jun 0.6 0.1
15.07.14 18:00 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Jun 0.6 0.0
15.07.14 18:00 US Empire Manufacturing Jul 17.0 19.3
15.07.14 18:00 US Import Price Index MoM Jun 0.4 0.1
15.07.14 18:00 US Import Price Index YoY Jun --- 0.4
15.07.14 18:00 US Business Inventories May 0.6 0.6