Global
rankings:
Past, present,
future
Richard Holmes
Bucharest
November 2024
The birth of global rankings
• Prehistory: early rankings such as the 1908 Carnegie list
• US News 1983, and other national rankings
• Asiaweek 1999 and 2000
• Then Shanghai Rankings (ARWU) 2003 This Photo by Unknown
Author is licensed under
CC BY-SA
Shanghai Rankings
• Research based: awards, publications, citations
• Public Western sources
• A specific objective
• Much criticised but objective, consistent, and transparent
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC
After Shanghai
• 2004 two new rankings
Webometrics and THES-QS
• Six new rankings in 2010
THE WUR, QS WUR, Emerging, RUR, GreenMetric, URAP
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC
Since 2004
• Global rankings have proliferated and expanded
• Perhaps receding -- 20 in 2019, 15 in IREG 2024
• Plus subject, business, age, sustainability, impact, visibility
• Plus borderline cases and defunct rankings
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed
under CC BY
This Photo by Unknown Author
is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
What rankings measure
• Three general themes: research, teaching-related, internet activity
with another – social impact
• Sources of data: bibliometric, institutional data, surveys
• New indicators added since 2004
• More citation metrics, patents, books, conferences, social media,
sustainability, impact, international collaboration, social media,
international collaboration
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
The impact of global rankings
• Rankings have become very influential
• Major element in marketing strategies
• Everywhere -- railway stations, buses, campuses
• Not profitable in themselves but part of a massive complex
of data processing – many appear to be run at a loss or a
shoestring budget
• More universities ranked, but apart from uniRank and
Webometrics only a minority of potential HEIs
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed
under CC BY
Scepticism
• Reduce complex processes to a single number
• Favour anglosphere
• Favour hard sciences
• Easily gameable
• False hopes
• But some have identified genuine trends
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed
What next for
rankings?
• Questions about assessment of teaching and
learning
• Questions about assessment of research quantity
and quality
• Should universities be assessed for social and
political activity?
• How should universities deal with online instruction
and AI?
Decline of global rankings
• China is avoiding Top 500 supercomputer
rankings, THE impact rankings, GreenMetric
• Low score for QS sustainability metrics
• Indian IITs boycotting THE
• Western Rankings boycotting Russia
• Korea boycotting QS
• Boycotts of Russia and Israel
Future of rankings
• Regional rankings – see Applied HE, Arab Ranking of
Universities, Perspektywy
• Third mission rankings appear to be ascendant
• Revival of national rankings NIRF, Daily Mail,
• Subject rankings
• Or combinations of these
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under
CC BY-SA-NC
This Photo by
Unknown Author
is licensed under
CC BY-SA
This Photo by Unknown Author is
licensed under CC BY-SA
This Photo by Unknown Author is
licensed under CC BY
Towards multipolarity
• Research hegemony appears to be passing from the West to
China and possibly to India, Russia, Latin America, and the
Middle East
• Will Chinese or other non Western rankings emulate the
market dominance of THE and QS?
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
AI
• It is likely that AI will boost the circulation of data and data
submission for rankings
• Will contribute to an increase in research fraud and also
fraudulent ranking data
• But it is possible that AI eventually will improve the
detection of fraud
To conclude
• The number of general global rankings may decline
• But there may be more regional and national rankings
• Shift from the Anglosphere to Asia and perhaps other
regions
• Technological change will present new and daunting
challenges
• Whatever happens things will be interesting

Bucharest Romania IREG/SNSPA presentation.pptx

  • 1.
  • 2.
    The birth ofglobal rankings • Prehistory: early rankings such as the 1908 Carnegie list • US News 1983, and other national rankings • Asiaweek 1999 and 2000 • Then Shanghai Rankings (ARWU) 2003 This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
  • 3.
    Shanghai Rankings • Researchbased: awards, publications, citations • Public Western sources • A specific objective • Much criticised but objective, consistent, and transparent This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC
  • 4.
    After Shanghai • 2004two new rankings Webometrics and THES-QS • Six new rankings in 2010 THE WUR, QS WUR, Emerging, RUR, GreenMetric, URAP This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC
  • 5.
    Since 2004 • Globalrankings have proliferated and expanded • Perhaps receding -- 20 in 2019, 15 in IREG 2024 • Plus subject, business, age, sustainability, impact, visibility • Plus borderline cases and defunct rankings This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
  • 6.
    What rankings measure •Three general themes: research, teaching-related, internet activity with another – social impact • Sources of data: bibliometric, institutional data, surveys • New indicators added since 2004 • More citation metrics, patents, books, conferences, social media, sustainability, impact, international collaboration, social media, international collaboration This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
  • 7.
    The impact ofglobal rankings • Rankings have become very influential • Major element in marketing strategies • Everywhere -- railway stations, buses, campuses • Not profitable in themselves but part of a massive complex of data processing – many appear to be run at a loss or a shoestring budget • More universities ranked, but apart from uniRank and Webometrics only a minority of potential HEIs This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
  • 8.
    Scepticism • Reduce complexprocesses to a single number • Favour anglosphere • Favour hard sciences • Easily gameable • False hopes • But some have identified genuine trends This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed
  • 9.
    What next for rankings? •Questions about assessment of teaching and learning • Questions about assessment of research quantity and quality • Should universities be assessed for social and political activity? • How should universities deal with online instruction and AI?
  • 10.
    Decline of globalrankings • China is avoiding Top 500 supercomputer rankings, THE impact rankings, GreenMetric • Low score for QS sustainability metrics • Indian IITs boycotting THE • Western Rankings boycotting Russia • Korea boycotting QS • Boycotts of Russia and Israel
  • 11.
    Future of rankings •Regional rankings – see Applied HE, Arab Ranking of Universities, Perspektywy • Third mission rankings appear to be ascendant • Revival of national rankings NIRF, Daily Mail, • Subject rankings • Or combinations of these This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
  • 12.
    Towards multipolarity • Researchhegemony appears to be passing from the West to China and possibly to India, Russia, Latin America, and the Middle East • Will Chinese or other non Western rankings emulate the market dominance of THE and QS? This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
  • 13.
    AI • It islikely that AI will boost the circulation of data and data submission for rankings • Will contribute to an increase in research fraud and also fraudulent ranking data • But it is possible that AI eventually will improve the detection of fraud
  • 14.
    To conclude • Thenumber of general global rankings may decline • But there may be more regional and national rankings • Shift from the Anglosphere to Asia and perhaps other regions • Technological change will present new and daunting challenges • Whatever happens things will be interesting