SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1
2
3
4
Next 
three 
slides 
enact 
“entering 
the 
bubblesphere.” 
You 
start 
with 
the 
opera=onal 
team 
view 
(short 
term, 
one 
project), 
broaden 
to 
the 
PMO 
view 
(annual 
and 
for 
all 
projects), 
and 
then 
jump 
to 
the 
porHolio 
view 
(prospec=ve 
and 
strategic 
over 
life 
of 
project). 
5
X 
axis 
shows 
days, 
and 
opera=onal 
teams 
are 
rightly 
focused 
on 
hiLng 
full 
scope 
each 
itera=on. 
6
X 
axis 
s=ll 
shows 
days, 
but 
program 
managers 
are 
rightly 
focused 
on 
how 
the 
overall 
set 
of 
projects 
are 
performing, 
and 
when 
they 
will 
be 
done. 
7
You’re 
in 
the 
bubblesphere! 
Y 
axis 
indicates 
probability 
of 
success 
(0-­‐1). 
X 
axis 
indicates 
net 
present 
value 
of 
each 
project. 
Size 
of 
dot 
indicates 
overall 
likely 
income 
from 
project 
over 
its 
life=me. 
8
9
Note 
this 
porHolio 
has 
no 
“low 
risk, 
high 
return 
items,” 
and 
one 
high 
risk, 
high 
return 
item. 
They’re 
avoiding 
high 
risk/low 
return 
except 
for 
one 
large-­‐ish 
project. 
I 
wouldn’t 
want 
this 
porHolio. 
Kill 
high 
risk, 
low 
return 
projects 
in 
favor 
of 
a 
combina=on 
of 
high 
and 
low 
risk 
projects 
with 
some 
returns, 
preferably 
large 
ones. 
Other 
dimensions 
you 
might 
want 
to 
bubble 
chart: 
costs, 
=me, 
return 
on 
investments 
towards 
different 
balanced 
score 
card 
values, 
so 
long 
as 
they 
are 
quan=ta=ve, 
regulatory 
compliance, 
opera=onal 
cost, 
etc. 
You 
can 
use 
bubble 
charts 
for 
any 
combina=on 
of 
three 
dimensions 
on 
your 
porHolio. 
10
FantasTapps 
was 
incorporated 
by 
CEO 
William 
Gallstone 
in 
2010 
with 
a 
low-­‐interest 
loan 
of 
$1.5M 
(from 
his 
dad). 
The 
loan 
was 
based 
on 
a 
promising 
mobile 
phone 
applica=on, 
CoffeeRadar, 
designed 
by 
William. 
The 
app 
was 
launched 
mid-­‐February, 
2010, 
to 
immediate 
acclaim, 
and 
although 
the 
code 
quality 
was 
quite 
low, 
and 
showed 
the 
team's 
lack 
of 
experience, 
and 
maintenance 
costs 
on 
CoffeeRadar 
were 
high, 
it 
s=ll 
showed 
a 
good 
return 
on 
investment 
by 
the 
end 
of 
2010, 
with 
net 
profits 
of 
$390,000 
for 
the 
year. 
Based 
on 
the 
success 
of 
this 
app, 
which 
was 
supported 
on 
Android, 
Apple, 
and 
Blackberry 
plaHorms, 
Gallstone's 
team 
used 
most 
of 
the 
remaining 
loan 
to 
develop 
three 
addi=onal 
applica=ons 
in 
the 
second 
half 
of 
2010, 
and 
launched 
them 
during 
the 
winter 
holiday 
season, 
because 
what 
says 
"Happy 
Holidays" 
like 
a 
new 
coffee-­‐related 
phone 
app? 
The 
FantasTapps 
team 
addi=onally 
designed 
a 
fimh 
applica=on 
which 
was 
unlike 
anything 
they 
had 
developed 
before, 
being 
tea-­‐oriented, 
with 
the 
plan 
to 
launch 
some=me 
in 
2011. 
Based 
on 
the 
returns 
of 
CoffeeRadar, 
FantasTapps 
expects 
to 
get 
a 
3 
for 
1 
return 
on 
investment 
once 
TeaRadar 
launches. 
11
12
Looks 
really 
good! 
Upper 
right 
= 
CoffeeFinder, 
their 
anchor 
app. 
They 
expect 
2011 
returns 
to 
be 
on 
par 
with 
2010. 
Meanwhile, 
they 
hope 
great 
things 
for 
TeaFinder, 
lower 
right. 
And 
to 
keep 
things 
moving 
along, 
they 
have 
avoided 
high 
risk, 
low 
return 
projects 
in 
favor 
of 
low 
risk, 
low 
return 
projects 
for 
now, 
that 
s=ll 
look 
to 
be 
genera=ng 
income 
for 
years 
to 
come. 
13
Looks 
good! 
They 
won’t 
quite 
pay 
off 
William’s 
dad, 
but 
this 
looks 
to 
be 
an 
excellent 
year-­‐on-­‐year 
return. 
14
15
Although 
CaffeineTester, 
LaqeSwirlDesigner, 
and 
VirtualCreamSnimer 
all 
went 
live 
as 
planned 
in 
Q1, 
sales 
on 
VirtualCreamSnimer 
have 
been 
unexpectedly 
low. 
Boris 
assures 
William 
that 
things 
are 
about 
to 
get 
beqer. 
Meanwhile, 
CoffeeRadar 
2.0 
did 
not 
go 
live 
in 
Q1 
as 
planned 
because 
the 
development 
group, 
frustrated 
with 
low 
quality, 
has 
decided 
to 
adhere 
to 
CMM 
level 
5 
standards, 
and 
although 
product 
management 
has 
signed 
off 
on 
2.0 
as 
ready 
to 
ship, 
IT 
won’t 
do 
it 
un=l 
all 
documenta=on 
is 
brought 
up 
to 
spec. 
Although 
the 
virtual 
stand-­‐s=ll 
in 
new 
feature 
development 
led 
to 
lower 
than 
expected 
maintenance 
costs 
in 
Q2, 
sales 
on 
CoffeeRadar 
have 
been 
dropping 
as 
compe=tors 
come 
out 
with 
their 
own 
applica=ons 
for 
finding 
coffee 
in 
the 
wild. 
The 
TeaRadar 
team 
is 
ready 
to 
ship 
a 
free 
version 
of 
their 
app 
in 
Q3, 
but 
they 
require 
another 
$200K 
investment 
to 
get 
the 
paid 
version 
of 
the 
app 
into 
the 
various 
app 
stores 
by 
the 
end 
of 
the 
year. 
Based 
on 
what 
he 
sees 
now, 
William’s 
dad 
feels 
that 
William 
going 
to 
lose 
money 
this 
year, 
and 
go 
down 
to 
only 
$22K 
in 
cash 
reserves. 
All 
the 
same, 
he 
strongly 
feels 
William 
and 
the 
board 
should 
s=ck 
to 
the 
original 
budget, 
and 
just 
make 
the 
teams 
work 
harder 
in 
H2, 
to 
cover 
the 
shorHall. 
16
17
CaffeineTester: 
despite 
the 
complete 
lack 
of 
compe=tors 
at 
the 
start 
of 
2010, 
two 
new 
ones 
sprang 
up 
in 
Q32011. 
A 
maintenance 
only 
strategy 
causes 
the 
demand 
to 
drop 
to 
0. 
An 
investment 
strategy 
extends 
the 
product’s 
lead 
and 
causes 
a 
5-­‐fold 
return 
on 
investment. 
LaqeSwirlDesigner: 
OMG, 
they 
opened 
the 
China 
market. 
Maintain-­‐only 
= 
Q2 
-­‐ 
$20K 
+ 
$1M. 
Investment 
brings 
5-­‐fold 
return 
on 
investment 
over 
and 
above 
this 
amount. 
VirtualCreamSnimer: 
Boris 
went 
completely 
off 
the 
rails 
charging 
things 
to 
the 
company 
credit 
card. 
The 
applica=on 
tanked, 
and 
your 
resource 
costs, 
adver=sing, 
and 
travel 
budget 
is 
sinking 
any 
profits 
you 
had 
made. 
You 
have 
been 
completely 
taken 
over 
by 
compe=tors 
and 
the 
your 
lead 
developer 
has 
lem 
the 
company. 
Income 
is 
zero, 
plus 
subtract 
whatever 
you 
invested, 
and 
another 
$200K 
to 
cover 
Boris’s 
crazy 
expenses. 
CoffeeRadar: 
you 
can’t 
solve 
this 
problem 
just 
by 
throwing 
money 
at 
it. 
Maintain: 
Q2 
Revenue 
-­‐ 
40% 
= 
$60,000. 
Also 
subtract 
$170,000.00 
as 
you 
had 
to 
bring 
on 
contractors 
to 
just 
maintain 
the 
product 
as 
your 
internal 
employees 
are 
now 
working 
on 
the 
update 
= 
-­‐110K 
Invest 
-­‐ 
Take 
what 
you 
invested 
and 
mul=ply 
by 
3, 
then 
subtract 
from 
-­‐110K, 
because 
throwing 
money 
at 
the 
problem 
only 
made 
it 
worse. 
IT 
hired 
a 
slew 
of 
tech 
writers 
who 
all 
had 
to 
be 
brought 
up 
to 
speed, 
addi=onal 
18
19
CaffeineTester: 
Maintenance-­‐only 
leads 
to 
a 
10% 
decrease 
in 
profits. 
An 
investment 
strategy 
extends 
the 
product’s 
lead 
and 
causes 
a 
2-­‐fold 
return 
on 
investment. 
LaqeSwirlDesigner: 
Maintain-­‐only 
= 
Q3 
– 
20%. 
Investment 
brings 
2-­‐fold 
return 
on 
investment 
over 
and 
above 
Q3 
returns. 
VirtualCreamSnimer: 
Not 
even 
an 
op=on. 
Dead 
as 
a 
duck. 
CoffeeRadar: 
you 
s=ll 
can’t 
solve 
this 
problem 
just 
by 
throwing 
money 
at 
it. 
Maintain: 
Q3 
Revenue 
-­‐ 
40% 
= 
$36,000. 
Also 
subtract 
$170,000.00 
as 
you 
had 
to 
bring 
on 
contractors 
to 
just 
maintain 
the 
product 
as 
your 
internal 
employees 
are 
now 
working 
on 
the 
update 
= 
-­‐134K 
Invest 
-­‐ 
Take 
what 
you 
invested 
and 
mul=ply 
by 
3, 
then 
subtract 
from 
-­‐134K, 
because 
throwing 
money 
at 
the 
problem 
only 
made 
it 
worse. 
IT 
hired 
a 
slew 
of 
tech 
writers 
who 
all 
had 
to 
be 
brought 
up 
to 
speed, 
addi=onal 
hardware 
was 
purchased, 
etc. 
TeaRadar. 
If 
you 
invested, 
you 
get 
$1.5M. 
It 
totally 
took 
off, 
especially 
now 
that 
you 
have 
a 
foothold 
in 
China. 
If 
you 
didn’t, 
you 
don’t 
get 
anything. 
20
21
PorHolio 
strategies 
to 
correct 
“the 
plan” 
include: 
• Less 
op=misim 
about 
VirtualCreamSnimer 
• Factor 
in 
poten=al 
China 
market 
for 
LaqeSwirlDesigner 
• Update 
compe==ve 
informa=on 
about 
CaffeineDetector 
PorHolio 
strategies 
to 
beat 
“the 
plan” 
include: 
To 
really 
win, 
though, 
you 
need 
a 
new 
governance 
model 
for 
the 
plaHorm 
app 
which 
allows 
for 
quicker 
go-­‐live. 
• Invest 
in 
CoffeeSwirlDesigner 
and/or 
LaqeSwirlDesigner 
• Kill 
VirtualCreamSnimer 
22
Likely 
findings: 
-­‐ Throwing 
money 
at 
a 
process 
problem 
doesn’t 
help 
-­‐ You 
have 
to 
spend 
money 
to 
make 
money 
-­‐ Changing 
course 
based 
on 
coalface 
knowledge 
leads 
to 
a 
beqer 
overall 
result, 
if 
the 
team 
is 
sensible. 
23
Likely 
findings: 
-­‐ You 
have 
to 
spend 
money 
to 
make 
money 
-­‐ Changing 
course 
based 
on 
coalface 
knowledge 
leads 
to 
a 
beqer 
overall 
result, 
if 
the 
team 
is 
sensible. 
24

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Bubblespherepresentation 13548932015886-phpapp01-121207091437-phpapp02

  • 1. 1
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  • 3. 3
  • 4. 4
  • 5. Next three slides enact “entering the bubblesphere.” You start with the opera=onal team view (short term, one project), broaden to the PMO view (annual and for all projects), and then jump to the porHolio view (prospec=ve and strategic over life of project). 5
  • 6. X axis shows days, and opera=onal teams are rightly focused on hiLng full scope each itera=on. 6
  • 7. X axis s=ll shows days, but program managers are rightly focused on how the overall set of projects are performing, and when they will be done. 7
  • 8. You’re in the bubblesphere! Y axis indicates probability of success (0-­‐1). X axis indicates net present value of each project. Size of dot indicates overall likely income from project over its life=me. 8
  • 9. 9
  • 10. Note this porHolio has no “low risk, high return items,” and one high risk, high return item. They’re avoiding high risk/low return except for one large-­‐ish project. I wouldn’t want this porHolio. Kill high risk, low return projects in favor of a combina=on of high and low risk projects with some returns, preferably large ones. Other dimensions you might want to bubble chart: costs, =me, return on investments towards different balanced score card values, so long as they are quan=ta=ve, regulatory compliance, opera=onal cost, etc. You can use bubble charts for any combina=on of three dimensions on your porHolio. 10
  • 11. FantasTapps was incorporated by CEO William Gallstone in 2010 with a low-­‐interest loan of $1.5M (from his dad). The loan was based on a promising mobile phone applica=on, CoffeeRadar, designed by William. The app was launched mid-­‐February, 2010, to immediate acclaim, and although the code quality was quite low, and showed the team's lack of experience, and maintenance costs on CoffeeRadar were high, it s=ll showed a good return on investment by the end of 2010, with net profits of $390,000 for the year. Based on the success of this app, which was supported on Android, Apple, and Blackberry plaHorms, Gallstone's team used most of the remaining loan to develop three addi=onal applica=ons in the second half of 2010, and launched them during the winter holiday season, because what says "Happy Holidays" like a new coffee-­‐related phone app? The FantasTapps team addi=onally designed a fimh applica=on which was unlike anything they had developed before, being tea-­‐oriented, with the plan to launch some=me in 2011. Based on the returns of CoffeeRadar, FantasTapps expects to get a 3 for 1 return on investment once TeaRadar launches. 11
  • 12. 12
  • 13. Looks really good! Upper right = CoffeeFinder, their anchor app. They expect 2011 returns to be on par with 2010. Meanwhile, they hope great things for TeaFinder, lower right. And to keep things moving along, they have avoided high risk, low return projects in favor of low risk, low return projects for now, that s=ll look to be genera=ng income for years to come. 13
  • 14. Looks good! They won’t quite pay off William’s dad, but this looks to be an excellent year-­‐on-­‐year return. 14
  • 15. 15
  • 16. Although CaffeineTester, LaqeSwirlDesigner, and VirtualCreamSnimer all went live as planned in Q1, sales on VirtualCreamSnimer have been unexpectedly low. Boris assures William that things are about to get beqer. Meanwhile, CoffeeRadar 2.0 did not go live in Q1 as planned because the development group, frustrated with low quality, has decided to adhere to CMM level 5 standards, and although product management has signed off on 2.0 as ready to ship, IT won’t do it un=l all documenta=on is brought up to spec. Although the virtual stand-­‐s=ll in new feature development led to lower than expected maintenance costs in Q2, sales on CoffeeRadar have been dropping as compe=tors come out with their own applica=ons for finding coffee in the wild. The TeaRadar team is ready to ship a free version of their app in Q3, but they require another $200K investment to get the paid version of the app into the various app stores by the end of the year. Based on what he sees now, William’s dad feels that William going to lose money this year, and go down to only $22K in cash reserves. All the same, he strongly feels William and the board should s=ck to the original budget, and just make the teams work harder in H2, to cover the shorHall. 16
  • 17. 17
  • 18. CaffeineTester: despite the complete lack of compe=tors at the start of 2010, two new ones sprang up in Q32011. A maintenance only strategy causes the demand to drop to 0. An investment strategy extends the product’s lead and causes a 5-­‐fold return on investment. LaqeSwirlDesigner: OMG, they opened the China market. Maintain-­‐only = Q2 -­‐ $20K + $1M. Investment brings 5-­‐fold return on investment over and above this amount. VirtualCreamSnimer: Boris went completely off the rails charging things to the company credit card. The applica=on tanked, and your resource costs, adver=sing, and travel budget is sinking any profits you had made. You have been completely taken over by compe=tors and the your lead developer has lem the company. Income is zero, plus subtract whatever you invested, and another $200K to cover Boris’s crazy expenses. CoffeeRadar: you can’t solve this problem just by throwing money at it. Maintain: Q2 Revenue -­‐ 40% = $60,000. Also subtract $170,000.00 as you had to bring on contractors to just maintain the product as your internal employees are now working on the update = -­‐110K Invest -­‐ Take what you invested and mul=ply by 3, then subtract from -­‐110K, because throwing money at the problem only made it worse. IT hired a slew of tech writers who all had to be brought up to speed, addi=onal 18
  • 19. 19
  • 20. CaffeineTester: Maintenance-­‐only leads to a 10% decrease in profits. An investment strategy extends the product’s lead and causes a 2-­‐fold return on investment. LaqeSwirlDesigner: Maintain-­‐only = Q3 – 20%. Investment brings 2-­‐fold return on investment over and above Q3 returns. VirtualCreamSnimer: Not even an op=on. Dead as a duck. CoffeeRadar: you s=ll can’t solve this problem just by throwing money at it. Maintain: Q3 Revenue -­‐ 40% = $36,000. Also subtract $170,000.00 as you had to bring on contractors to just maintain the product as your internal employees are now working on the update = -­‐134K Invest -­‐ Take what you invested and mul=ply by 3, then subtract from -­‐134K, because throwing money at the problem only made it worse. IT hired a slew of tech writers who all had to be brought up to speed, addi=onal hardware was purchased, etc. TeaRadar. If you invested, you get $1.5M. It totally took off, especially now that you have a foothold in China. If you didn’t, you don’t get anything. 20
  • 21. 21
  • 22. PorHolio strategies to correct “the plan” include: • Less op=misim about VirtualCreamSnimer • Factor in poten=al China market for LaqeSwirlDesigner • Update compe==ve informa=on about CaffeineDetector PorHolio strategies to beat “the plan” include: To really win, though, you need a new governance model for the plaHorm app which allows for quicker go-­‐live. • Invest in CoffeeSwirlDesigner and/or LaqeSwirlDesigner • Kill VirtualCreamSnimer 22
  • 23. Likely findings: -­‐ Throwing money at a process problem doesn’t help -­‐ You have to spend money to make money -­‐ Changing course based on coalface knowledge leads to a beqer overall result, if the team is sensible. 23
  • 24. Likely findings: -­‐ You have to spend money to make money -­‐ Changing course based on coalface knowledge leads to a beqer overall result, if the team is sensible. 24