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1Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS
AROUND THE WORLD
QUARTER 4, 2016
2016 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 4TH
EDITION
2 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
•	 The global consumer confidence index was 101 in the fourth quarter, up three points from the first quarter of
2016.
•	 Forty-four of 63 markets finished the year with higher consumer confidence scores than they had at the start.
•	 In North America, confidence closed the year at a score of 120, driven by a high U.S. number.
•	 In Europe, consumer confidence improved in 25 of 34 measured markets from the first quarter to the fourth
quarter, with the biggest increase over the year in the Netherlands (15 points).
•	 In Asia-Pacific, 10 of 14 markets finished 2016 with higher consumer confidence scores than at the start of the
year, with the biggest increase in the Philippines (13 points).
•	 In Latin America, three of seven markets ended the year more confident than they started. Brazil was the
biggest mover of the region, increasing 11 points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter.
•	 In the Africa/Middle East region, confidence declined five points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter,
driven by double-digit drops in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Amid great political and economic change around the world, global
consumer confidence moved modestly in 2016, rising three points between
the first and fourth quarter to 101. Confidence scores in every region except
Africa/Middle East finished the year more strongly than they began. And
while quarter-on-quarter swings occurred in most markets, fourth-quarter
confidence scores increased from the first quarter of 2016 in 44 of the 63
markets measured in the online survey, including eight of the world’s top 10
economies (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, U.K. and U.S.).
2016: AMID A YEAR
OF GREAT CHANGE,
CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE
FINISHED ON A
HIGH NOTE IN MOST
MARKETS
3Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company 3
North America saw the greatest change in 2016, with the index rising
12 points between the first and the fourth quarters to a score of 120. In
the U.S., consumer confidence increased 13 points in that time frame to
finish the year strong at 123, a remarkable result that we discuss in the
report. In Canada, confidence increased steadily every quarter in 2016,
rising from 93 in the first quarter to 98 in the fourth quarter.
Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region strengthened modestly in 2016,
rising three points between the first quarter and the fourth quarter to 111.
While fourth-quarter scores varied widely in the region, from a high of 136
in India to a low of 43 in South Korea, the majority of markets (10 of 14)
finished the year more optimistic than they started. The biggest increase
was in the Philippines, where confidence rose 13 points from the first
quarter to the fourth quarter. Sentiment declined slightly during the year
in three markets in the region, falling four points in Taiwan, two points
in Singapore and one point in South Korea. Confidence was flat in Japan
from the first quarter to the fourth quarter.
Confidence also increased modestly in Europe in 2016, rising from 78
in the first quarter to 81 in the fourth quarter. Scores increased in the
majority of countries in the region (25 of 34), with the biggest jumps
in the Netherlands (up 15 points to 100), Spain (up 12 points to 86),
Switzerland (up 11 points to 102), Sweden (up nine points to 95) and
Norway (up nine points to 87). Confidence declined in six countries
during the year, with the steepest declines in the Baltic states of Latvia
(down eight points), Lithuania (down five points) and Estonia (down two
points, as well as in Turkey (down six points).
In Latin America, confidence rose five points in 2016, from 78 in the
first quarter to 83 in the fourth quarter. Confidence in Brazil, the largest
economy in the region, rose 11 points to 85, and it increased seven points
in Colombia (to 90) and five points in Peru (96) from the start to the
end of 2016. Confidence in Venezuela declined three points from the
first quarter, finishing the year at 57, the lowest level recorded since the
country was added to the survey in 2008. In Mexico (at 86) and Argentina
(75), consumer confidence was flat from the start of the year.
Africa/Middle East was the only region where confidence declined from
the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2016, dropping five points to
83, driven by double-digit declines in Egypt (down 14 points) and Saudi
Arabia (down 10). Nonetheless, while confidence fell in the fourth
quarter in the majority of markets in the region, sentiment still improved
modestly from the beginning of the year in four of six markets in the
region: United Arab Emirates (up four points), Pakistan (up two), South
Africa (up two) and Morocco (up one).
4 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local
job prospects, personal finances and immediate-spending intentions.
Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate
degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively. Within a country,
period-to-period movements of seven points or more are considered
statistically significant. At a global level, movements of two points
are statistically significant; at a regional level, three to four-point
movements are statistically significant. The index and other findings
related to consumer confidence are based on data from the Nielsen
Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions.
Established in 2005, this survey measures consumer confidence,
major concerns and spending intentions among more than 30,000
respondents with internet access in 63 countries.
“The set of factors influencing confidence are multifaceted and go
beyond economics and business,” said Louise Keely, executive vice
president, Nielsen. “In 2016, there were political and social factors
that created uncertainty for consumers in many regions of the world.
Those factors died down somewhat at the end of the year, and average
confidence across regions rebounded a bit. There continues to be wide
variation in confidence across countries, as confidence is affected
more by local conditions than global ones.”
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
The findings in this survey are based on an online methodology in 63 countries. While an online survey
methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits
of existing internet users, not total populations. In developing markets where online penetration is still
growing, audiences may be younger and more affluent than these countries’ general populations. Three
Sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria) utilize a mobile survey methodology and are
not included in the global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed throughout this report. In addition,
survey responses are based on claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data. Cultural differences
in reporting sentiment are likely factors in the measurement of economic outlook across countries. The
reported results do not attempt to control or correct for these differences; therefore, caution should be
exercised when comparing across countries and regions, particularly across regional boundaries.
5Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY
63-COUNTRY THREE-MONTH TREND
Q4-2016 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX*
*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate
degrees of optimism/pessimism.
+17
-2
+5
+2
0
+2
0
+5
+2
+4
+5
-4
+1
0
+5
+4
+1
-8
+4
-6
-2
0
0
-4
+8
-3
+3
+1+9-1-4 -8
+1
-5
+1
-3
-3
-10
-9
+2
+4
-2
+2
-12
+2
-3
-4
-5
+4
-3
-6
0
-4
-7
-3
-2
86SPAIN
87NORWAY88
AUSTRIA
88
POLAND
89
BELGIUM
90
TURKEY
ITALY
58
90
CO
LO
M
BIA
SLO
VENIA
62
91
AU
STRALIA
RU
SSIA
63
HUNGARY
64
93
HO
NG
KO
NG
EGYPT
64
94
SAUDI ARABIA
FRANCE
66
95
SWEDEN
FINLAND
68
96
PERU
LATVIA 69
98 CANADA
CROATIA 69
100 NETHERLANDS
SERBIA 69
100 ISRAEL
TAIWAN 72 100 IRELAND
ESTONIA 72
101 GERMANY
JAPAN 73
102 UNITED KINGDOM
LITHUANIA
74
102 SWITZERLAND
PORTUGAL
74
103
CZECH REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA
75
103
NEW
ZEALAND
BULGARIA
75
106
PAKISTAN
SO
UTH
AFRICA
77
107
DENM
ARK
KAZAKH
STAN
78
108
CH
IN
A
CHILE
78
108
UNITED
ARAB
EM
IRATES
SLOVAKIA
82
110
THAILAND
MALAYSIA
84
112
VIETNAM
ROMANIA
85
120
INDONESIA
BRAZIL
85
123UNITEDSTATES
MOROCCO
85
SINGAPORE86
MEXICO86
0
VENEZUELA
57
0
132PHILIPPINES
MORE CONF
IDENT
0
BELARUS
55GREECE53
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
101
( +2 change from Q3-2016 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 63 Countries – 3-Month Trend
Q4-2016 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index*
+2
UKRAINE
GLOBAL
AVERAGE
52
+1
-3
SOUTHKOREA43
C
O
U
N
T
R
Y
—
I
N
D
E
X
+3
136INDIA
ernet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
LESS
C
O
N
FIDENT
INDEXES ABOVE
100
IN
D
ICATE
O
PTIM
ISM
6 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
OPTIMISM WAS
HIGH IN THE U.S.
AND POSITIVE
MOMENTUM
CONTINUED IN
CANADA
U.S. consumer confidence remained strong in the fourth quarter at 123,
driven by robust increases in all confidence indicators. Seven in 10 U.S.
respondents said they believed their personal finances would be good
or excellent in the next 12 months, an increase of nine percentage points
from the third quarter. More than six in 10 (63%) believed it was a good
time to buy the things they want and need, an increase of 11 percentage
points. Sixty-one percent had confidence in the job market in the year
ahead, an increase of 11 percentage points from the third quarter.
These spikes might have been affected by continued growth of the U.S.
economy and job markets, as well as the completion of the presidential
election cycle.1
Similarly, recessionary sentiment declined dramatically in the fourth
quarter. While 50% of U.S. respondents expressed belief that the country
was in recession in the fourth quarter, nearly half of these respondents
(47%) were confident they would be out of recession in the next 12
months. Of the 51% who believed their country was in recession in the
previous quarter, only 18% believed they would be out in the year ahead.
This optimism translated into a willingness to spend. Intentions to
spend on vacations increased 11 percentage points from the third
quarter, and intentions to buy new technology rose six percentage
points; the number for purchasing clothes rose four percentage points.
Conversely, intention to save declined by five percentage points, and
intention to pay off debts declined three percentage points from the
third quarter. Only 13% of U.S. respondents said they did not have
discretionary funds to spend, an improvement from 16% in the third
quarter.
1
The U.S. jump matches similar jumps within the quarter in a number of U.S.-only surveys, including The Conference Board, the University of
Michigan, and the National Federation of Independent Business. Such jumps usually resolve to some degree in the next quarter’s results.
7Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
“Post-election, American consumers appeared to be more optimistic
and to be prepared to spend to a greater degree than earlier in the year,”
said Keely. “The growth outlook for the U.S. economy in 2017 also is
somewhat better since the election, with economic growth to a large
degree fueled by expected growth in total consumer spending.”
On a list of 20 possible concerns, the economy remained the biggest or
second-biggest concern for 36% of U.S. respondents, up five percentage
points from the third quarter but down one percentage point from the
first quarter. Concerns about terrorism rose for the second consecutive
quarter. More than one-fourth of U.S. respondents (27%) said terrorism
was their biggest or second-biggest concern, an increase of six
percentage points from the third quarter. Other top concerns centered
on political stability (17%), health (15%), debt (10%) and job security
(10%), as they have in the recent past.
In Canada, confidence increased for the third consecutive quarter, rising
one point to 98, as all confidence indicators improved modestly in the
fourth quarter. More than six in 10 Canadian respondents (61%) said
personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, an
increase of one percentage point from the third quarter. Respondents
also expressed more optimism about job prospects; the share expecting
favorable prospects (47%) rose three percentage points in the fourth
quarter. Forty-four percent of Canadian respondents said it’s a good
time to buy, up one percentage point from the third quarter.
As in the U.S., the primary concern in Canada was the economy,
cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern by 30% of Canadian
respondents, a one-percentage-point increase from the third quarter.
Canadian respondents also expressed concern about debt (20%, up
two percentage points from the third quarter), rising utility bills (19%,
down three points), job security (17%, down one point), health (17%, no
change) and rising food prices (16%, down six points).
8 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT
UNITED
STATES
CANADA
+11
+1
61%
70%
63%
44%
47%
61%
PERSONAL
FINANCES
IMMEDIATE
SPENDING
INTENTIONS
JOB
PROSPECTS
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
Q4 2016
PERCENTAGE-POINT
CHANGE FROM Q3 2016
+11
+3
+9
+1
IN NORTH AMERICA, CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IMPROVED
THE MOST IN THE UNITED STATES
9Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
THE EUROPEAN
CONFIDENCE
SCORE HELD STEADY
In Europe, consumer confidence was unchanged from the third quarter,
holding steady at 81. All confidence indicators were largely flat, with
personal-finance sentiment and immediate-spending intentions
unchanged from the third quarter at 43% and 34%, respectively.
Confidence about job prospects in the year ahead inched downward,
declining one percentage point from the third quarter to 31%.
Within the region, however, confidence relative to the third quarter rose
in 16 markets, fell in 14 and remained flat in four. Of the markets that
increased, most (12 of 16) saw only modest gains of four points or less.
Confidence increased in three of the region’s top five economies, rising
nine points in Spain(to 86, the highest level for the country since 2007)
and one point in Germany (to 101, exceeding the optimism baseline for
the first time). Confidence in Italy increased one point from the third
quarter to 58. Despite a four-point decline in the fourth quarter, the U.K.
(102) remained one of the most confident markets in the region. In
France, the index of 66 represented a three-point decline from the third
quarter.
“Spain’s healthy growth rate—well above that of the other major
European countries—has remained steady, and growing confidence is
reflected in strong out-of-home consumption,” said Gustavo Nunez,
market leader, Nielsen Iberia. “Spain also has benefited from robust
foreign tourism, with the number of visitors in 2016 up 10% over the
previous year, fostering spending growth in the hotels, restaurants and
cafes channel. Although unemployment remains a major concern, it is
decreasing monthly; in fact, the rate is down seven points in the past
three years. And after a year of political instability, a new government is
in place and negotiation has replaced confrontation.”
The job outlook for the year ahead declined slightly in both Germany
and the U.K. in the fourth quarter. Fifty-eight percent of German
respondents expected favorable prospects for jobs in the coming year,
down from 60% in the third quarter. In the U.K., 43% thought the
outlook was favorable, down three percentage points. Personal-finance
sentiment also declined slightly in the U.K. (from 55% to 53%), while
immediate-spending intentions were flat relative to the third quarter, at
53%. In Germany, personal-finance sentiment and immediate-spending
intentions both increased modestly, rising one percentage point each to
57% and 50%, respectively.
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Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence
& Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INCREASED IN 16 OF 34
EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q4
Denmark
Czech Republic
Switzerland
U.K.
Germany
Ireland
Israel
Netherlands
Sweden
Turkey
Belgium
Austria
Poland
Norway
Spain
Romania
Slovakia
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Portugal
Lithuania
Estonia
Serbia
Croatia
Latvia
Finland
France
Hungary
Russia
Slovenia
Italy
Belarus
Greece
Ukraine
INDEX
PERCENTAGE-
POINT
CHANGE
FROM Q3 2016
INCREASE
DECREASE
NO CHANGE
107
103
102
102
101
100
100
100
95
90
89
88
88
87
86
85
82
78
75
74
74
72
69
69
69
68
66
64
63
62
58
55
53
52
0
4
5
-4
1
0
5
4
4
-4
8
3
-3
1
9
-2
1
-3
-9
4
-2
-12
2
-4
-5
4
-3
0
-4
-7
1
0
-3
2
10 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“German respondents seem very confident this year,” said Ingo Schier,
managing director, Nielsen Germany. “The confidence of German
consumers rose again in the fourth quarter 2016, and is now at an
optimistic index level of 101 points. Overall, job optimism is high and
the German labor market remains strong. German respondents also are
quite optimistic about their personal finances and believe the coming
year will be a good time to spend money. Despite changes in the world
economy, such as the Brexit and the government change in the U.S.,
private consumption will once again be the primary growth driver
of the German economy in 2017. Terrorism and crime make German
consumers insecure, and these issues were the largest concerns in the
country in the fourth quarter. However, these concerns haven’t had an
immediate impact on local consumer confidence.”
In Belgium, confidence increased eight points from the third quarter to
89, the highest level since 2011. Personal-finance sentiment rose five
percentage points to 46% favorable, immediate-spending intentions
increased seven percentage points to 37%, and the job outlook rose
three percentage points to 34% expressing a positive outlook.
The top concerns for Europeans in the fourth quarter were terrorism
and the economy, each cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern
by 21% of respondents in the region. However, the percentage of
respondents who cited terrorism as a leading concern declined eight
percentage points from the third quarter. In fact, concern about
terrorism dropped in all 34 European countries measured, with the
largest declines in Switzerland (26%, down 14 percentage points),
Belgium (24%, down 14 points), Italy (18%, down 14 points), Denmark
(12%, down 14 points) and Poland (11%, down 14 points). The economy,
job security and health also were major concerns, cited by 21%, 19% and
18% of European respondents, respectively.
“In the last quarter, we’ve seen the first signs of rising inflation in the U.K., with
petrol prices as a prime example,” said Steve Smith, managing director, Nielsen
U.K. and Ireland. “We now expect to see the start of price increases for consumer
staples early in 2017, and perhaps cases of ‘shrinkflation’ as the industry looks
to minimize the price increases being passed on to shoppers. In addition, as
the political and economic planning for Brexit gets under way, concerns about
jobs leaving the U.K. have unsettled consumers. Terrorism threats and the U.S.
election also have created uncertainty. However, times generally remain good
for U.K. consumers, with strong employment and wage growth that rose slightly
ahead of price inflation during the last year. In addition, disposable income
remains stable, while tax benefits for low-wage earners and a rise in the minimum
wage have reduced income inequality. As a result, consumer spending continued
to be the engine of GDP growth in the U.K. in 2016.”
11Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TURKEY
FRANCE
GERMANY
SWITZERLAND
BELGIUM
NETHERLANDS
AUSTRIA
SWEDEN
CZECH REPUBLIC
U.K.
ISRAEL
ITALY
SPAIN
NORWAY
SLOVAKIA
DENMARK
IRELAND
POLAND
HUNGARY
KAZAKHSTAN
BULGARIA
CROATIA
FINLAND
PORTUGAL
SERBIA
SLOVENIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
ROMANIA
RUSSIA
GREECE
UKRAINE
LITHUANIA
BELARUS
55%
38%
34%
26%
24%
23%
22%
22%
21%
20%
18%
18%
17%
16%
13%
12%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
8%
8%
6%
5%
5%
5%
3%
3%
2%
1%
Q4 2016
-4
-10
-10
-14
-14
-11
-12
-4
-12
-9
-5
-14
-5
-10
-10
-14
-10
-14
-9
-9
-12
-11
-7
-12
-9
-10
-10
-9
-11
-5
-6
-2
-4
-3
PERCENTAGE-POINT
CHANGE FROM
Q3 2016
TERRORISM CONCERNS DECLINED ACROSS EUROPE IN Q4
BUT REMAIN HIGH IN MANY MARKETS
PERCENT WHO SAY TERRORISM IS THEIR BIGGEST OR SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERN
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
12 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE IN
ASIA-PACIFIC VARIES
WIDELY BY COUNTRY
Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region was relatively stable at 111, a two-
point increase from the third quarter. Confidence was highest in the
emerging markets in the region. India, apparently a nation of determined
optimists, led the way at 136 (up three points from the third quarter),
the highest score in Nielsen’s 63-country survey. New Zealand (103, up
two points from the third quarter) was the only developed market in the
region with a score above the baseline of 100 points.
Regionally, all confidence indicators improved in the third quarter.
Sixty-four percent of respondents in Asia-Pacific said they expected their
personal finances to be good or excellent in the coming year, up one
percentage point from the third quarter. Nearly as many (63%) expressed
optimism about job prospects in the year ahead, an increase of three
percentage points from the third quarter. More than half of regional
respondents (52%) said it is a good or excellent time to buy the things
they want and need, a two-point increase.
Confidence results, however, were largely mixed at the country level.
While consumer confidence increased modestly in six countries in
the fourth quarter, it declined in the same number and was flat in two
others. The largest change was in Singapore, where confidence declined
eight points to 86, the lowest score since first-quarter 2009. Sentiment
declined on all of the confidence indicators measured. Fewer than half
of respondents in Singapore (47%) expressed confidence about their
personal finances in the coming year, a decline of three percentage
points from the third quarter. Roughly one-third said it’s a good time
to spend (35%) or that they were confident about job prospects (31%),
down four and 10 percentage points, respectively.
“The labor market in Singapore has displayed symptoms of weakening
over successive quarters of gradual decline,” said Joan Koh, managing
director, Nielsen Singapore and Malaysia. “Layoffs continued across
the financial-services and banking sectors due to strong wage inflation
and increased cost-of-living expenses. However, unemployment has
remained low and stable, with government support and programs in
place to strengthen businesses and the local workforce over the next
two years. In addition, uncertainty about global trade and heightened
protectionism under the new U.S. presidential administration and recent
diplomatic disputes with China may have increased market volatility
and dampened Singapore’s export-led growth, exerting pressure on the
Singapore dollar and affecting interest rates.”
13Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
Consumer confidence in Malaysia also fell to the lowest level in more
than seven years, declining five points to 84. Sentiment declined on all
of the confidence indicators measured: The percentage optimistic about
their personal finances declined three percentage points to 46%, those
optimistic about the job outlook fell two percentage points to 35%, and
those with immediate-spending intentions declined two percentage points
to 27%.
“In Malaysia, concern about the economy increased in the fourth quarter,
with 85% of Malaysian respondents believing the country is in recession,
despite all economic indicators being positive,” said Richard Hall,
country manager, Nielsen Malaysia. “Consumers also are increasingly
worried about rising food, utility and fuel costs, which together are the
biggest concerns after the economy overall. The continuing devaluation
of the ringgit is likely top of mind for most consumers, as the prolonged
situation means that suppliers will potentially have no choice but to pass
on higher import costs to consumers in the long run. In addition, as
Malaysia enters a potential election year in 2017, concerns about political
stability have increased, consistent with the trend we saw before the last
election.”
In China, the region’s economic engine and the world’s largest
developing economy, confidence rose two points to 108, with the
increase driven primarily by more favorable perceptions about job
prospects, which rose four percentage points in the fourth quarter to
62% favorable. Personal-finance sentiment increased one percentage
point to 61% favorable, and immediate-spending intentions rose two
percentage points to 51%.
“Job growth has been a key focus for the Chinese government, especially
in the West and lower-tier cities in China, and rising confidence in
the outlook for jobs in the fourth quarter suggests consumers are
recognizing these efforts,” said Yan Xuan, president, Nielsen Greater
China. “China’s economy has kept a stable pace, with the highest GDP
growth in the world in 2016 —at 6.7%, including growth of 6.8% in the
fourth quarter—and consumers’ willingness to spend has continued to
increase, mainly driven by trading up as standards of living rise.”
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
China
New Zealand
Hong Kong
Australia
Singapore
Malaysia
Japan
Taiwan
South Korea
136
132
120
112
110
108
103
93
91
86
84
73
72
43
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INCREASED OR WAS FLAT IN 8 OF
14 ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q4
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer
Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
INDEX
PERCENTAGE-
POINT CHANGE
FROM Q3 2016
3
0
-2
5
2
2
2
-2
0
-8
-5
2
-3
-3
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
14 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
India’s consumer confidence score rose three points to 136, the highest
level in 10 years. More than eight in 10 Indian respondents were
confident about their personal finances (85%) and job prospects (84%)
in the coming year, and nearly seven in 10 (69%) said they believe it is a
good time to spend.
The biggest or second-biggest concerns in Asia-Pacific remained
relatively unchanged from the third quarter, with the economy (32%),
health (25%), work/life balance (23%) and job security (23%) topping
the list.
“The three-point increase in the confidence index in the fourth quarter
reflects strong economic and commercial performance at the end of the
third quarter and at the beginning of the fourth quarter, further benefited
by the timing of the festive season, when confidence typically rises,” said
Prasun Basu, president, Nielsen South Asia. “During the survey period, the
Indian government announced demonetization of high-denomination notes.
While this move created short-term constraints for consumers, the long-term
outlook is bullish–a sentiment clearly echoed in other Nielsen research and
by a recently released study by the Reserve Bank of India–thus strengthening
the overall confidence levels for the next 12 months.”
15Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE
REMAINED STABLE
IN THE LATIN
AMERICA REGION
The regional consumer confidence score for Latin America held steady
at 83 in the fourth quarter. The primary concern among Latin American
respondents continued to be the economy. It was the biggest or second-
biggest concern for 35% of respondents in the region, up one percentage
point from the third quarter. Economic concerns were followed by
worries about job security (24%), which was unchanged from the third
quarter, and crime (24%), which rose three percentage points.
These concerns were reflected in the confidence indicators. Regionally,
optimism about jobs remained low at 26% favorable, unchanged from
the third quarter. Immediate-spending intentions saw a slight uptick,
rising one percentage point, but remained depressed, with less than
one-third (32%) of Latin American respondents saying it’s a good time
to buy the items they want and need. Personal-finance sentiment also
was relatively flat, declining two percentage points to 56% expressing a
favorable outlook.
In Brazil, the region’s biggest economy, consumer confidence rose
one point to 85, the highest score since the first quarter of 2015.
Immediate-spending intentions also increased modestly, rising two
percentage points to 35%. The jobs outlook rose one percentage point,
but remained low: One-quarter of Brazilian respondents (25%) said
they believed job prospects in the next 12 months would be excellent or
good. Despite their conservative spending intentions and a pessimistic
outlook on jobs, respondents were relatively positive about their own
financial situation. Sixty-two percent of Brazilian respondents predicted
their personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12
months, a one-point decline from the third quarter.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
WAS RELATIVELY STABLE IN
LATIN AMERICA IN Q4
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer
Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
PERU
VENEZUELA
96
57
-8
0
MEXICO
86-1
ARGENTINA
752
COLOMBIA
900
BRAZIL
851
CHILE
78-3
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
INDEXPERCENTAGE-
POINT CHANGE
FROM Q3 2016
16 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“Though improving at a slower pace than in the third quarter, the
Consumer Confidence Index in Brazil maintained an upward trend in
the fourth quarter,” said Luis Arjona, managing director, Nielsen Chile-
Brazil. “Macroeconomic indicators continue to improve in the country;
most importantly, inflation and interest rates are declining. Nonetheless,
as unemployment will remain high for the balance of 2017, we expect
sustainable growth in the consumer market will be gradual. We remain
optimistic about the economic recovery and expect overall consumption
levels to improve in the second half of 2017.”
In the region, consumer confidence was highest in Peru at 96, despite an
eight-point decline in the fourth quarter. Personal-finance sentiment and
the job prospects outlook declined by double digits in the fourth quarter,
falling 11 percentage points each to 57% and 46% favorable, respectively.
Immediate-spending intentions declined seven percentage points to 37%.
“Confidence in Peru increased for two consecutive quarters immediately
following the presidential election, as the newly-elected government
promised to boost investments and reduce bureaucratic obstacles,”
said Martha Lucía Giraldo, market leader, Nielsen Latin America. “But
optimism has fallen back to pre-election levels, as growth hasn’t occurred
as quickly as many Peruvians expected.”
17Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
IN AFRICA/MIDDLE
EAST, CONFIDENCE
DECLINED IN THE
MAJORITY OF
MEASURED MARKETS
Consumer confidence in the Africa/Middle East region declined in the
fourth quarter, falling four points to 83, the lowest level in more than
three years. Confidence was highest in United Arab Emirates, which held
steady from the third quarter at 108. Pakistan was the only country where
consumer confidence moved in a positive direction, rising five points
from the third quarter to 106, the highest score for the country since it
was added to the survey in 2008.
Consumer confidence fell in four of the six Middle East/Africa countries
measured, a reflection of the economic difficulties facing many markets
in the region. Indeed, the economy is the biggest or second-biggest
concern for 29% of Africa/Middle East respondents, an increase of
three percentage points from the third quarter. Economic concerns
were followed closely by worries about job security (28%), down
one percentage point from the third quarter. Seventeen percent of
respondents said increasing food prices were among their biggest
concerns, an increase of one percentage point.
South Africa showed the biggest decline in consumer confidence in
the region in the fourth quarter. There, confidence fell 10 points to 77,
offsetting the gains made in the previous quarter.
“The roller-coaster consumer confidence sentiment in South Africa
continues, as respondents’ outlook about the economy deteriorated in
the fourth quarter following the short-lived increase in the third quarter,
which may have been boosted by the municipal elections,” said Bryan
Sun, managing director, Nielsen South Africa. “An impending credit-
rating review was a major source of apprehension during the fourth
quarter, and lower-than-expected GDP growth and rising food prices also
were concerns. In addition, South Africans are increasingly anxious about
ongoing disruption and uncertainty in tertiary-education structures.”
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
INDEXPERCENTAGE-
POINT CHANGE
FROM Q3 2016
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN
PAKISTAN SEES IMPROVEMENT
IN Q4 AND UAE REMAINS
STRONG
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer
Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
0
5
-6
-10
-6
-4
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
PAKISTAN
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
EGYPT
MOROCCO
108
106
94
77
64
85
18 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
In Egypt, the consumer confidence index declined six points to 64, the
lowest level for the country since it was added to the survey in 2007. Only
one-third of Egyptian respondents (34%) believed their personal finances
would be good or excellent during the next 12 months, down eight
percentage points from the third quarter, and roughly one-fifth (21%) felt
it was a good time to buy the items they want and need, a two percentage
point decline.
“Egyptians are living in times of change, and with change, sentiment can
be unsteady,” said Tamar Elaraby, country manager, Nielsen Egypt and
Levant. “The Egyptian pound is going through a process of reevaluation,
ultimately causing inflation and critical changes in the exporting- and
importing-based industries. Until the economy reaches a clear point
of stability, we expect certain fluctuations in consumer confidence to
continue.”
In Saudi Arabia, consumer confidence dipped below 100 for the
first time in 13 quarters, falling six points to 94. Personal-finance
sentiment declined eight percentage points to 48% favorable, and fewer
respondents said it is a good time to buy the items they want and need
(38%, down nine percentage points from the third quarter).
“Sharp declines in oil prices have negatively affected the Saudi economy,
as the sector accounts for roughly 85% of total revenue,” said Arslan
Ashraf, managing director, Nielsen Arabian Peninsula. “Low oil prices
have severely curtailed the government’s spending power, which is
the biggest driver of GDP, and the Saudi government has launched an
austerity drive in response. After raising prices for utilities, such as
electricity, water and petrol in early 2016, the government introduced
new austerity measures in the fourth quarter, including reducing the
allowances of government employees and increasing the visa fees for
expats. This has resulted in a reduction of consumer spending power
and, in turn, consumption.”
19Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE ROSE
IN NIGERIA AND
GHANA, BUT FELL IN
KENYA
Confidence in Nigeria climbed three points to 116 in the fourth quarter
after a steep decline in the third quarter. In Kenya, after three consecutive
quarters of rising consumer confidence, the index declined significantly,
falling 11 points to 109. Ghana’s score rose two points to 111.2
All confidence indicators in Nigeria increased in the fourth quarter. The
percentage of respondents who predicted that their personal finances
would be good or excellent in the next 12 months jumped five percentage
points to 80%, and 59% of Nigerian respondents said job prospects would
be good or excellent, up one percentage point from the third quarter.
Immediate-spending intentions increased four percentage points, rising to
39% of respondents who said now is a good time to spend. More than four
in 10 Nigerian respondents (44%) said they had spare cash, up from 36%
in the third quarter.
Conversely, in Kenya, all confidence indicators declined in the fourth
quarter. After robust gains in the third quarter, immediate-spending
intentions declined most, dropping 11 percentage points to 42%. Personal-
finance sentiment returned to second-quarter levels, declining six
percentage points to 66% favorable, and the outlook for jobs declined for
the second consecutive quarter, dropping four percentage points to 52%.
“Compared with some of the more volatile economies in Sub-Saharan
Africa, the Kenyan economy is growing at a relatively strong and stable
rate, with GDP growth of 6.2%, and Kenyans are generally feeling positive
about the future,” said Abhik Gupta, managing director, Nielsen East and
West Africa. “However, in the fourth quarter, growth and projections for
2017, slowed, fueled by the implementation of capped interest rates, rising
food inflation and unemployment concerns, particularly among the young.
Nearly one in every five Kenyan youths of working age is unemployed.
Nonetheless, despite the drop in its CCI score, Kenya remains the top-
ranked prospect in Africa, based on the Nielsen Africa Prospects Indicator,
which integrates macroeconomic, business, retail and consumer factors.”
2
Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria were added to Nielsen’s measurement of consumer confidence in the first quarter of 2014 using a mobile survey methodology,
which differs from the online methodology used to report consumer confidence and spending intentions for the other 63 countries outlined in this report.
Therefore, these three Sub-Saharan African markets are not included in the global index discussed throughout this report.
20 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Q3 2016 Q4 2016Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
Sub-Saharan Africa countries use a mobile methodology				
GHANA
KENYA
NIGERIA
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES IN GHANA AND NIGERIA IN Q4
104 104 109 111
108 109114 120
120 113 116122
21Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
MARKET
INTERNET
PENETRATION
Australia 93%
China 52%
Hong Kong 80%
India 37%
Indonesia 34%
Japan 91%
Malaysia 68%
New Zealand 94%
Philippines 53%
Singapore 81%
South Korea 92%
Taiwan 84%
Thailand 60%
Vietnam 52%
MARKET
MOBILE
PENETRATION*
Ghana 130%
Kenya 81%
Nigeria 81%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
MARKET
INTERNET
PENETRATION
Egypt 37%
Morocco 61%
Pakistan 18%
Saudi Arabia 65%
South Africa 49%
United Arab
Emirates
92%
AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST
Source: Miniwatts Marketing, Internet World
Stats, Jun. 30, 2016 (Europe is updated through
Nov. 30, 2015),
www.internetworldstats.com
MARKET
INTERNET
PENETRATION
Canada 93%
United States 87%
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
EUROPE
MARKET
INTERNET
PENETRATION
Austria 83%
Belarus 59%
Belgium 85%
Bulgaria 57%
Croatia 75%
Czech Republic 80%
Denmark 96%
Estonia 84%
Finland 94%
France 84%
Germany 88%
Greece 63%
Hungary 76%
Ireland 83%
Israel 73%
Italy 62%
Kazakhstan 54%
Latvia 82%
Lithuania 82%
Netherlands 96%
Norway 96%
Poland 68%
Portugal 68%
Romania 56%
Russia 71%
Serbia 66%
Slovakia 83%
Slovenia 73%
Spain 77%
Sweden 95%
Switzerland 87%
Turkey 60%
United Kingdom 92%
Ukraine 43%
MARKET
INTERNET
PENETRATION
LATIN AMERICA
Argentina 79%
Brazil 68%
Chile 80%
Colombia 59%
Mexico 56%
Peru 59%
Venezuela 62%
*Based on mobile handsets divided by population.
Source: CIA World Facebook, July 2015
22 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY
The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions
was conducted Oct. 31–Nov. 18, 2016, and polled more than 30,000 online
consumers in 63 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America,
the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes internet
users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on
age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of internet
consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed
to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error
of ±0.6% at the global level. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behavior
of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country.
Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% internet penetration or
an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer
Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed-methodology survey
among 3,500 respondents in China. The Sub-Saharan African countries in this
study are compiled from a separate mobile survey methodology among 1,600
respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey, which
includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005.
ABOUT NIELSEN
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management
company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers
watch and buy. Nielsen’s Watch segment provides media and advertising
clients with Total Audience measurement services for all devices on which
content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment offers
consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry’s only
global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information
from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also
provides its clients with analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen,
an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries, covering more
than 90% of the world’s population.
For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and
the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN
Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or
registered trademarks of their respective companies. 17/10805
23Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company

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Báo cáo xu hướng người tiêu dùng Nielsen Q4 năm 2016

  • 1. 1Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD QUARTER 4, 2016 2016 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 4TH EDITION
  • 2. 2 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2 • The global consumer confidence index was 101 in the fourth quarter, up three points from the first quarter of 2016. • Forty-four of 63 markets finished the year with higher consumer confidence scores than they had at the start. • In North America, confidence closed the year at a score of 120, driven by a high U.S. number. • In Europe, consumer confidence improved in 25 of 34 measured markets from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, with the biggest increase over the year in the Netherlands (15 points). • In Asia-Pacific, 10 of 14 markets finished 2016 with higher consumer confidence scores than at the start of the year, with the biggest increase in the Philippines (13 points). • In Latin America, three of seven markets ended the year more confident than they started. Brazil was the biggest mover of the region, increasing 11 points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. • In the Africa/Middle East region, confidence declined five points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, driven by double-digit drops in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Amid great political and economic change around the world, global consumer confidence moved modestly in 2016, rising three points between the first and fourth quarter to 101. Confidence scores in every region except Africa/Middle East finished the year more strongly than they began. And while quarter-on-quarter swings occurred in most markets, fourth-quarter confidence scores increased from the first quarter of 2016 in 44 of the 63 markets measured in the online survey, including eight of the world’s top 10 economies (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, U.K. and U.S.). 2016: AMID A YEAR OF GREAT CHANGE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FINISHED ON A HIGH NOTE IN MOST MARKETS
  • 3. 3Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company 3 North America saw the greatest change in 2016, with the index rising 12 points between the first and the fourth quarters to a score of 120. In the U.S., consumer confidence increased 13 points in that time frame to finish the year strong at 123, a remarkable result that we discuss in the report. In Canada, confidence increased steadily every quarter in 2016, rising from 93 in the first quarter to 98 in the fourth quarter. Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region strengthened modestly in 2016, rising three points between the first quarter and the fourth quarter to 111. While fourth-quarter scores varied widely in the region, from a high of 136 in India to a low of 43 in South Korea, the majority of markets (10 of 14) finished the year more optimistic than they started. The biggest increase was in the Philippines, where confidence rose 13 points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. Sentiment declined slightly during the year in three markets in the region, falling four points in Taiwan, two points in Singapore and one point in South Korea. Confidence was flat in Japan from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. Confidence also increased modestly in Europe in 2016, rising from 78 in the first quarter to 81 in the fourth quarter. Scores increased in the majority of countries in the region (25 of 34), with the biggest jumps in the Netherlands (up 15 points to 100), Spain (up 12 points to 86), Switzerland (up 11 points to 102), Sweden (up nine points to 95) and Norway (up nine points to 87). Confidence declined in six countries during the year, with the steepest declines in the Baltic states of Latvia (down eight points), Lithuania (down five points) and Estonia (down two points, as well as in Turkey (down six points). In Latin America, confidence rose five points in 2016, from 78 in the first quarter to 83 in the fourth quarter. Confidence in Brazil, the largest economy in the region, rose 11 points to 85, and it increased seven points in Colombia (to 90) and five points in Peru (96) from the start to the end of 2016. Confidence in Venezuela declined three points from the first quarter, finishing the year at 57, the lowest level recorded since the country was added to the survey in 2008. In Mexico (at 86) and Argentina (75), consumer confidence was flat from the start of the year. Africa/Middle East was the only region where confidence declined from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2016, dropping five points to 83, driven by double-digit declines in Egypt (down 14 points) and Saudi Arabia (down 10). Nonetheless, while confidence fell in the fourth quarter in the majority of markets in the region, sentiment still improved modestly from the beginning of the year in four of six markets in the region: United Arab Emirates (up four points), Pakistan (up two), South Africa (up two) and Morocco (up one).
  • 4. 4 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate-spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively. Within a country, period-to-period movements of seven points or more are considered statistically significant. At a global level, movements of two points are statistically significant; at a regional level, three to four-point movements are statistically significant. The index and other findings related to consumer confidence are based on data from the Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions. Established in 2005, this survey measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 30,000 respondents with internet access in 63 countries. “The set of factors influencing confidence are multifaceted and go beyond economics and business,” said Louise Keely, executive vice president, Nielsen. “In 2016, there were political and social factors that created uncertainty for consumers in many regions of the world. Those factors died down somewhat at the end of the year, and average confidence across regions rebounded a bit. There continues to be wide variation in confidence across countries, as confidence is affected more by local conditions than global ones.” ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY The findings in this survey are based on an online methodology in 63 countries. While an online survey methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits of existing internet users, not total populations. In developing markets where online penetration is still growing, audiences may be younger and more affluent than these countries’ general populations. Three Sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria) utilize a mobile survey methodology and are not included in the global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed throughout this report. In addition, survey responses are based on claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data. Cultural differences in reporting sentiment are likely factors in the measurement of economic outlook across countries. The reported results do not attempt to control or correct for these differences; therefore, caution should be exercised when comparing across countries and regions, particularly across regional boundaries.
  • 5. 5Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY 63-COUNTRY THREE-MONTH TREND Q4-2016 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX* *Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism. +17 -2 +5 +2 0 +2 0 +5 +2 +4 +5 -4 +1 0 +5 +4 +1 -8 +4 -6 -2 0 0 -4 +8 -3 +3 +1+9-1-4 -8 +1 -5 +1 -3 -3 -10 -9 +2 +4 -2 +2 -12 +2 -3 -4 -5 +4 -3 -6 0 -4 -7 -3 -2 86SPAIN 87NORWAY88 AUSTRIA 88 POLAND 89 BELGIUM 90 TURKEY ITALY 58 90 CO LO M BIA SLO VENIA 62 91 AU STRALIA RU SSIA 63 HUNGARY 64 93 HO NG KO NG EGYPT 64 94 SAUDI ARABIA FRANCE 66 95 SWEDEN FINLAND 68 96 PERU LATVIA 69 98 CANADA CROATIA 69 100 NETHERLANDS SERBIA 69 100 ISRAEL TAIWAN 72 100 IRELAND ESTONIA 72 101 GERMANY JAPAN 73 102 UNITED KINGDOM LITHUANIA 74 102 SWITZERLAND PORTUGAL 74 103 CZECH REPUBLIC ARGENTINA 75 103 NEW ZEALAND BULGARIA 75 106 PAKISTAN SO UTH AFRICA 77 107 DENM ARK KAZAKH STAN 78 108 CH IN A CHILE 78 108 UNITED ARAB EM IRATES SLOVAKIA 82 110 THAILAND MALAYSIA 84 112 VIETNAM ROMANIA 85 120 INDONESIA BRAZIL 85 123UNITEDSTATES MOROCCO 85 SINGAPORE86 MEXICO86 0 VENEZUELA 57 0 132PHILIPPINES MORE CONF IDENT 0 BELARUS 55GREECE53 NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC 101 ( +2 change from Q3-2016 ) GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 63 Countries – 3-Month Trend Q4-2016 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index* +2 UKRAINE GLOBAL AVERAGE 52 +1 -3 SOUTHKOREA43 C O U N T R Y — I N D E X +3 136INDIA ernet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism. LESS C O N FIDENT INDEXES ABOVE 100 IN D ICATE O PTIM ISM
  • 6. 6 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT OPTIMISM WAS HIGH IN THE U.S. AND POSITIVE MOMENTUM CONTINUED IN CANADA U.S. consumer confidence remained strong in the fourth quarter at 123, driven by robust increases in all confidence indicators. Seven in 10 U.S. respondents said they believed their personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, an increase of nine percentage points from the third quarter. More than six in 10 (63%) believed it was a good time to buy the things they want and need, an increase of 11 percentage points. Sixty-one percent had confidence in the job market in the year ahead, an increase of 11 percentage points from the third quarter. These spikes might have been affected by continued growth of the U.S. economy and job markets, as well as the completion of the presidential election cycle.1 Similarly, recessionary sentiment declined dramatically in the fourth quarter. While 50% of U.S. respondents expressed belief that the country was in recession in the fourth quarter, nearly half of these respondents (47%) were confident they would be out of recession in the next 12 months. Of the 51% who believed their country was in recession in the previous quarter, only 18% believed they would be out in the year ahead. This optimism translated into a willingness to spend. Intentions to spend on vacations increased 11 percentage points from the third quarter, and intentions to buy new technology rose six percentage points; the number for purchasing clothes rose four percentage points. Conversely, intention to save declined by five percentage points, and intention to pay off debts declined three percentage points from the third quarter. Only 13% of U.S. respondents said they did not have discretionary funds to spend, an improvement from 16% in the third quarter. 1 The U.S. jump matches similar jumps within the quarter in a number of U.S.-only surveys, including The Conference Board, the University of Michigan, and the National Federation of Independent Business. Such jumps usually resolve to some degree in the next quarter’s results.
  • 7. 7Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company “Post-election, American consumers appeared to be more optimistic and to be prepared to spend to a greater degree than earlier in the year,” said Keely. “The growth outlook for the U.S. economy in 2017 also is somewhat better since the election, with economic growth to a large degree fueled by expected growth in total consumer spending.” On a list of 20 possible concerns, the economy remained the biggest or second-biggest concern for 36% of U.S. respondents, up five percentage points from the third quarter but down one percentage point from the first quarter. Concerns about terrorism rose for the second consecutive quarter. More than one-fourth of U.S. respondents (27%) said terrorism was their biggest or second-biggest concern, an increase of six percentage points from the third quarter. Other top concerns centered on political stability (17%), health (15%), debt (10%) and job security (10%), as they have in the recent past. In Canada, confidence increased for the third consecutive quarter, rising one point to 98, as all confidence indicators improved modestly in the fourth quarter. More than six in 10 Canadian respondents (61%) said personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, an increase of one percentage point from the third quarter. Respondents also expressed more optimism about job prospects; the share expecting favorable prospects (47%) rose three percentage points in the fourth quarter. Forty-four percent of Canadian respondents said it’s a good time to buy, up one percentage point from the third quarter. As in the U.S., the primary concern in Canada was the economy, cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern by 30% of Canadian respondents, a one-percentage-point increase from the third quarter. Canadian respondents also expressed concern about debt (20%, up two percentage points from the third quarter), rising utility bills (19%, down three points), job security (17%, down one point), health (17%, no change) and rising food prices (16%, down six points).
  • 8. 8 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT UNITED STATES CANADA +11 +1 61% 70% 63% 44% 47% 61% PERSONAL FINANCES IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS JOB PROSPECTS Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016 Q4 2016 PERCENTAGE-POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016 +11 +3 +9 +1 IN NORTH AMERICA, CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IMPROVED THE MOST IN THE UNITED STATES
  • 9. 9Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company THE EUROPEAN CONFIDENCE SCORE HELD STEADY In Europe, consumer confidence was unchanged from the third quarter, holding steady at 81. All confidence indicators were largely flat, with personal-finance sentiment and immediate-spending intentions unchanged from the third quarter at 43% and 34%, respectively. Confidence about job prospects in the year ahead inched downward, declining one percentage point from the third quarter to 31%. Within the region, however, confidence relative to the third quarter rose in 16 markets, fell in 14 and remained flat in four. Of the markets that increased, most (12 of 16) saw only modest gains of four points or less. Confidence increased in three of the region’s top five economies, rising nine points in Spain(to 86, the highest level for the country since 2007) and one point in Germany (to 101, exceeding the optimism baseline for the first time). Confidence in Italy increased one point from the third quarter to 58. Despite a four-point decline in the fourth quarter, the U.K. (102) remained one of the most confident markets in the region. In France, the index of 66 represented a three-point decline from the third quarter. “Spain’s healthy growth rate—well above that of the other major European countries—has remained steady, and growing confidence is reflected in strong out-of-home consumption,” said Gustavo Nunez, market leader, Nielsen Iberia. “Spain also has benefited from robust foreign tourism, with the number of visitors in 2016 up 10% over the previous year, fostering spending growth in the hotels, restaurants and cafes channel. Although unemployment remains a major concern, it is decreasing monthly; in fact, the rate is down seven points in the past three years. And after a year of political instability, a new government is in place and negotiation has replaced confrontation.” The job outlook for the year ahead declined slightly in both Germany and the U.K. in the fourth quarter. Fifty-eight percent of German respondents expected favorable prospects for jobs in the coming year, down from 60% in the third quarter. In the U.K., 43% thought the outlook was favorable, down three percentage points. Personal-finance sentiment also declined slightly in the U.K. (from 55% to 53%), while immediate-spending intentions were flat relative to the third quarter, at 53%. In Germany, personal-finance sentiment and immediate-spending intentions both increased modestly, rising one percentage point each to 57% and 50%, respectively. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN 16 OF 34 EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q4 Denmark Czech Republic Switzerland U.K. Germany Ireland Israel Netherlands Sweden Turkey Belgium Austria Poland Norway Spain Romania Slovakia Kazakhstan Bulgaria Portugal Lithuania Estonia Serbia Croatia Latvia Finland France Hungary Russia Slovenia Italy Belarus Greece Ukraine INDEX PERCENTAGE- POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016 INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE 107 103 102 102 101 100 100 100 95 90 89 88 88 87 86 85 82 78 75 74 74 72 69 69 69 68 66 64 63 62 58 55 53 52 0 4 5 -4 1 0 5 4 4 -4 8 3 -3 1 9 -2 1 -3 -9 4 -2 -12 2 -4 -5 4 -3 0 -4 -7 1 0 -3 2
  • 10. 10 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT “German respondents seem very confident this year,” said Ingo Schier, managing director, Nielsen Germany. “The confidence of German consumers rose again in the fourth quarter 2016, and is now at an optimistic index level of 101 points. Overall, job optimism is high and the German labor market remains strong. German respondents also are quite optimistic about their personal finances and believe the coming year will be a good time to spend money. Despite changes in the world economy, such as the Brexit and the government change in the U.S., private consumption will once again be the primary growth driver of the German economy in 2017. Terrorism and crime make German consumers insecure, and these issues were the largest concerns in the country in the fourth quarter. However, these concerns haven’t had an immediate impact on local consumer confidence.” In Belgium, confidence increased eight points from the third quarter to 89, the highest level since 2011. Personal-finance sentiment rose five percentage points to 46% favorable, immediate-spending intentions increased seven percentage points to 37%, and the job outlook rose three percentage points to 34% expressing a positive outlook. The top concerns for Europeans in the fourth quarter were terrorism and the economy, each cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern by 21% of respondents in the region. However, the percentage of respondents who cited terrorism as a leading concern declined eight percentage points from the third quarter. In fact, concern about terrorism dropped in all 34 European countries measured, with the largest declines in Switzerland (26%, down 14 percentage points), Belgium (24%, down 14 points), Italy (18%, down 14 points), Denmark (12%, down 14 points) and Poland (11%, down 14 points). The economy, job security and health also were major concerns, cited by 21%, 19% and 18% of European respondents, respectively. “In the last quarter, we’ve seen the first signs of rising inflation in the U.K., with petrol prices as a prime example,” said Steve Smith, managing director, Nielsen U.K. and Ireland. “We now expect to see the start of price increases for consumer staples early in 2017, and perhaps cases of ‘shrinkflation’ as the industry looks to minimize the price increases being passed on to shoppers. In addition, as the political and economic planning for Brexit gets under way, concerns about jobs leaving the U.K. have unsettled consumers. Terrorism threats and the U.S. election also have created uncertainty. However, times generally remain good for U.K. consumers, with strong employment and wage growth that rose slightly ahead of price inflation during the last year. In addition, disposable income remains stable, while tax benefits for low-wage earners and a rise in the minimum wage have reduced income inequality. As a result, consumer spending continued to be the engine of GDP growth in the U.K. in 2016.”
  • 11. 11Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company TURKEY FRANCE GERMANY SWITZERLAND BELGIUM NETHERLANDS AUSTRIA SWEDEN CZECH REPUBLIC U.K. ISRAEL ITALY SPAIN NORWAY SLOVAKIA DENMARK IRELAND POLAND HUNGARY KAZAKHSTAN BULGARIA CROATIA FINLAND PORTUGAL SERBIA SLOVENIA LATVIA ESTONIA ROMANIA RUSSIA GREECE UKRAINE LITHUANIA BELARUS 55% 38% 34% 26% 24% 23% 22% 22% 21% 20% 18% 18% 17% 16% 13% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% Q4 2016 -4 -10 -10 -14 -14 -11 -12 -4 -12 -9 -5 -14 -5 -10 -10 -14 -10 -14 -9 -9 -12 -11 -7 -12 -9 -10 -10 -9 -11 -5 -6 -2 -4 -3 PERCENTAGE-POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016 TERRORISM CONCERNS DECLINED ACROSS EUROPE IN Q4 BUT REMAIN HIGH IN MANY MARKETS PERCENT WHO SAY TERRORISM IS THEIR BIGGEST OR SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERN Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
  • 12. 12 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC VARIES WIDELY BY COUNTRY Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region was relatively stable at 111, a two- point increase from the third quarter. Confidence was highest in the emerging markets in the region. India, apparently a nation of determined optimists, led the way at 136 (up three points from the third quarter), the highest score in Nielsen’s 63-country survey. New Zealand (103, up two points from the third quarter) was the only developed market in the region with a score above the baseline of 100 points. Regionally, all confidence indicators improved in the third quarter. Sixty-four percent of respondents in Asia-Pacific said they expected their personal finances to be good or excellent in the coming year, up one percentage point from the third quarter. Nearly as many (63%) expressed optimism about job prospects in the year ahead, an increase of three percentage points from the third quarter. More than half of regional respondents (52%) said it is a good or excellent time to buy the things they want and need, a two-point increase. Confidence results, however, were largely mixed at the country level. While consumer confidence increased modestly in six countries in the fourth quarter, it declined in the same number and was flat in two others. The largest change was in Singapore, where confidence declined eight points to 86, the lowest score since first-quarter 2009. Sentiment declined on all of the confidence indicators measured. Fewer than half of respondents in Singapore (47%) expressed confidence about their personal finances in the coming year, a decline of three percentage points from the third quarter. Roughly one-third said it’s a good time to spend (35%) or that they were confident about job prospects (31%), down four and 10 percentage points, respectively. “The labor market in Singapore has displayed symptoms of weakening over successive quarters of gradual decline,” said Joan Koh, managing director, Nielsen Singapore and Malaysia. “Layoffs continued across the financial-services and banking sectors due to strong wage inflation and increased cost-of-living expenses. However, unemployment has remained low and stable, with government support and programs in place to strengthen businesses and the local workforce over the next two years. In addition, uncertainty about global trade and heightened protectionism under the new U.S. presidential administration and recent diplomatic disputes with China may have increased market volatility and dampened Singapore’s export-led growth, exerting pressure on the Singapore dollar and affecting interest rates.”
  • 13. 13Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company Consumer confidence in Malaysia also fell to the lowest level in more than seven years, declining five points to 84. Sentiment declined on all of the confidence indicators measured: The percentage optimistic about their personal finances declined three percentage points to 46%, those optimistic about the job outlook fell two percentage points to 35%, and those with immediate-spending intentions declined two percentage points to 27%. “In Malaysia, concern about the economy increased in the fourth quarter, with 85% of Malaysian respondents believing the country is in recession, despite all economic indicators being positive,” said Richard Hall, country manager, Nielsen Malaysia. “Consumers also are increasingly worried about rising food, utility and fuel costs, which together are the biggest concerns after the economy overall. The continuing devaluation of the ringgit is likely top of mind for most consumers, as the prolonged situation means that suppliers will potentially have no choice but to pass on higher import costs to consumers in the long run. In addition, as Malaysia enters a potential election year in 2017, concerns about political stability have increased, consistent with the trend we saw before the last election.” In China, the region’s economic engine and the world’s largest developing economy, confidence rose two points to 108, with the increase driven primarily by more favorable perceptions about job prospects, which rose four percentage points in the fourth quarter to 62% favorable. Personal-finance sentiment increased one percentage point to 61% favorable, and immediate-spending intentions rose two percentage points to 51%. “Job growth has been a key focus for the Chinese government, especially in the West and lower-tier cities in China, and rising confidence in the outlook for jobs in the fourth quarter suggests consumers are recognizing these efforts,” said Yan Xuan, president, Nielsen Greater China. “China’s economy has kept a stable pace, with the highest GDP growth in the world in 2016 —at 6.7%, including growth of 6.8% in the fourth quarter—and consumers’ willingness to spend has continued to increase, mainly driven by trading up as standards of living rise.” India Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Thailand China New Zealand Hong Kong Australia Singapore Malaysia Japan Taiwan South Korea 136 132 120 112 110 108 103 93 91 86 84 73 72 43 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASED OR WAS FLAT IN 8 OF 14 ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q4 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016 INDEX PERCENTAGE- POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016 3 0 -2 5 2 2 2 -2 0 -8 -5 2 -3 -3 INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
  • 14. 14 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT India’s consumer confidence score rose three points to 136, the highest level in 10 years. More than eight in 10 Indian respondents were confident about their personal finances (85%) and job prospects (84%) in the coming year, and nearly seven in 10 (69%) said they believe it is a good time to spend. The biggest or second-biggest concerns in Asia-Pacific remained relatively unchanged from the third quarter, with the economy (32%), health (25%), work/life balance (23%) and job security (23%) topping the list. “The three-point increase in the confidence index in the fourth quarter reflects strong economic and commercial performance at the end of the third quarter and at the beginning of the fourth quarter, further benefited by the timing of the festive season, when confidence typically rises,” said Prasun Basu, president, Nielsen South Asia. “During the survey period, the Indian government announced demonetization of high-denomination notes. While this move created short-term constraints for consumers, the long-term outlook is bullish–a sentiment clearly echoed in other Nielsen research and by a recently released study by the Reserve Bank of India–thus strengthening the overall confidence levels for the next 12 months.”
  • 15. 15Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company CONFIDENCE REMAINED STABLE IN THE LATIN AMERICA REGION The regional consumer confidence score for Latin America held steady at 83 in the fourth quarter. The primary concern among Latin American respondents continued to be the economy. It was the biggest or second- biggest concern for 35% of respondents in the region, up one percentage point from the third quarter. Economic concerns were followed by worries about job security (24%), which was unchanged from the third quarter, and crime (24%), which rose three percentage points. These concerns were reflected in the confidence indicators. Regionally, optimism about jobs remained low at 26% favorable, unchanged from the third quarter. Immediate-spending intentions saw a slight uptick, rising one percentage point, but remained depressed, with less than one-third (32%) of Latin American respondents saying it’s a good time to buy the items they want and need. Personal-finance sentiment also was relatively flat, declining two percentage points to 56% expressing a favorable outlook. In Brazil, the region’s biggest economy, consumer confidence rose one point to 85, the highest score since the first quarter of 2015. Immediate-spending intentions also increased modestly, rising two percentage points to 35%. The jobs outlook rose one percentage point, but remained low: One-quarter of Brazilian respondents (25%) said they believed job prospects in the next 12 months would be excellent or good. Despite their conservative spending intentions and a pessimistic outlook on jobs, respondents were relatively positive about their own financial situation. Sixty-two percent of Brazilian respondents predicted their personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, a one-point decline from the third quarter. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS RELATIVELY STABLE IN LATIN AMERICA IN Q4 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016 PERU VENEZUELA 96 57 -8 0 MEXICO 86-1 ARGENTINA 752 COLOMBIA 900 BRAZIL 851 CHILE 78-3 INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE INDEXPERCENTAGE- POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016
  • 16. 16 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT “Though improving at a slower pace than in the third quarter, the Consumer Confidence Index in Brazil maintained an upward trend in the fourth quarter,” said Luis Arjona, managing director, Nielsen Chile- Brazil. “Macroeconomic indicators continue to improve in the country; most importantly, inflation and interest rates are declining. Nonetheless, as unemployment will remain high for the balance of 2017, we expect sustainable growth in the consumer market will be gradual. We remain optimistic about the economic recovery and expect overall consumption levels to improve in the second half of 2017.” In the region, consumer confidence was highest in Peru at 96, despite an eight-point decline in the fourth quarter. Personal-finance sentiment and the job prospects outlook declined by double digits in the fourth quarter, falling 11 percentage points each to 57% and 46% favorable, respectively. Immediate-spending intentions declined seven percentage points to 37%. “Confidence in Peru increased for two consecutive quarters immediately following the presidential election, as the newly-elected government promised to boost investments and reduce bureaucratic obstacles,” said Martha Lucía Giraldo, market leader, Nielsen Latin America. “But optimism has fallen back to pre-election levels, as growth hasn’t occurred as quickly as many Peruvians expected.”
  • 17. 17Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company IN AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST, CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN THE MAJORITY OF MEASURED MARKETS Consumer confidence in the Africa/Middle East region declined in the fourth quarter, falling four points to 83, the lowest level in more than three years. Confidence was highest in United Arab Emirates, which held steady from the third quarter at 108. Pakistan was the only country where consumer confidence moved in a positive direction, rising five points from the third quarter to 106, the highest score for the country since it was added to the survey in 2008. Consumer confidence fell in four of the six Middle East/Africa countries measured, a reflection of the economic difficulties facing many markets in the region. Indeed, the economy is the biggest or second-biggest concern for 29% of Africa/Middle East respondents, an increase of three percentage points from the third quarter. Economic concerns were followed closely by worries about job security (28%), down one percentage point from the third quarter. Seventeen percent of respondents said increasing food prices were among their biggest concerns, an increase of one percentage point. South Africa showed the biggest decline in consumer confidence in the region in the fourth quarter. There, confidence fell 10 points to 77, offsetting the gains made in the previous quarter. “The roller-coaster consumer confidence sentiment in South Africa continues, as respondents’ outlook about the economy deteriorated in the fourth quarter following the short-lived increase in the third quarter, which may have been boosted by the municipal elections,” said Bryan Sun, managing director, Nielsen South Africa. “An impending credit- rating review was a major source of apprehension during the fourth quarter, and lower-than-expected GDP growth and rising food prices also were concerns. In addition, South Africans are increasingly anxious about ongoing disruption and uncertainty in tertiary-education structures.” INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE INDEXPERCENTAGE- POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2016 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN PAKISTAN SEES IMPROVEMENT IN Q4 AND UAE REMAINS STRONG Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016 0 5 -6 -10 -6 -4 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES PAKISTAN SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA EGYPT MOROCCO 108 106 94 77 64 85
  • 18. 18 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT In Egypt, the consumer confidence index declined six points to 64, the lowest level for the country since it was added to the survey in 2007. Only one-third of Egyptian respondents (34%) believed their personal finances would be good or excellent during the next 12 months, down eight percentage points from the third quarter, and roughly one-fifth (21%) felt it was a good time to buy the items they want and need, a two percentage point decline. “Egyptians are living in times of change, and with change, sentiment can be unsteady,” said Tamar Elaraby, country manager, Nielsen Egypt and Levant. “The Egyptian pound is going through a process of reevaluation, ultimately causing inflation and critical changes in the exporting- and importing-based industries. Until the economy reaches a clear point of stability, we expect certain fluctuations in consumer confidence to continue.” In Saudi Arabia, consumer confidence dipped below 100 for the first time in 13 quarters, falling six points to 94. Personal-finance sentiment declined eight percentage points to 48% favorable, and fewer respondents said it is a good time to buy the items they want and need (38%, down nine percentage points from the third quarter). “Sharp declines in oil prices have negatively affected the Saudi economy, as the sector accounts for roughly 85% of total revenue,” said Arslan Ashraf, managing director, Nielsen Arabian Peninsula. “Low oil prices have severely curtailed the government’s spending power, which is the biggest driver of GDP, and the Saudi government has launched an austerity drive in response. After raising prices for utilities, such as electricity, water and petrol in early 2016, the government introduced new austerity measures in the fourth quarter, including reducing the allowances of government employees and increasing the visa fees for expats. This has resulted in a reduction of consumer spending power and, in turn, consumption.”
  • 19. 19Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company CONFIDENCE ROSE IN NIGERIA AND GHANA, BUT FELL IN KENYA Confidence in Nigeria climbed three points to 116 in the fourth quarter after a steep decline in the third quarter. In Kenya, after three consecutive quarters of rising consumer confidence, the index declined significantly, falling 11 points to 109. Ghana’s score rose two points to 111.2 All confidence indicators in Nigeria increased in the fourth quarter. The percentage of respondents who predicted that their personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12 months jumped five percentage points to 80%, and 59% of Nigerian respondents said job prospects would be good or excellent, up one percentage point from the third quarter. Immediate-spending intentions increased four percentage points, rising to 39% of respondents who said now is a good time to spend. More than four in 10 Nigerian respondents (44%) said they had spare cash, up from 36% in the third quarter. Conversely, in Kenya, all confidence indicators declined in the fourth quarter. After robust gains in the third quarter, immediate-spending intentions declined most, dropping 11 percentage points to 42%. Personal- finance sentiment returned to second-quarter levels, declining six percentage points to 66% favorable, and the outlook for jobs declined for the second consecutive quarter, dropping four percentage points to 52%. “Compared with some of the more volatile economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Kenyan economy is growing at a relatively strong and stable rate, with GDP growth of 6.2%, and Kenyans are generally feeling positive about the future,” said Abhik Gupta, managing director, Nielsen East and West Africa. “However, in the fourth quarter, growth and projections for 2017, slowed, fueled by the implementation of capped interest rates, rising food inflation and unemployment concerns, particularly among the young. Nearly one in every five Kenyan youths of working age is unemployed. Nonetheless, despite the drop in its CCI score, Kenya remains the top- ranked prospect in Africa, based on the Nielsen Africa Prospects Indicator, which integrates macroeconomic, business, retail and consumer factors.” 2 Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria were added to Nielsen’s measurement of consumer confidence in the first quarter of 2014 using a mobile survey methodology, which differs from the online methodology used to report consumer confidence and spending intentions for the other 63 countries outlined in this report. Therefore, these three Sub-Saharan African markets are not included in the global index discussed throughout this report.
  • 20. 20 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q3 2016 Q4 2016Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016 Sub-Saharan Africa countries use a mobile methodology GHANA KENYA NIGERIA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES IN GHANA AND NIGERIA IN Q4 104 104 109 111 108 109114 120 120 113 116122
  • 21. 21Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION Australia 93% China 52% Hong Kong 80% India 37% Indonesia 34% Japan 91% Malaysia 68% New Zealand 94% Philippines 53% Singapore 81% South Korea 92% Taiwan 84% Thailand 60% Vietnam 52% MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION* Ghana 130% Kenya 81% Nigeria 81% COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY ASIA-PACIFIC MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION Egypt 37% Morocco 61% Pakistan 18% Saudi Arabia 65% South Africa 49% United Arab Emirates 92% AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST Source: Miniwatts Marketing, Internet World Stats, Jun. 30, 2016 (Europe is updated through Nov. 30, 2015), www.internetworldstats.com MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION Canada 93% United States 87% NORTH AMERICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EUROPE MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION Austria 83% Belarus 59% Belgium 85% Bulgaria 57% Croatia 75% Czech Republic 80% Denmark 96% Estonia 84% Finland 94% France 84% Germany 88% Greece 63% Hungary 76% Ireland 83% Israel 73% Italy 62% Kazakhstan 54% Latvia 82% Lithuania 82% Netherlands 96% Norway 96% Poland 68% Portugal 68% Romania 56% Russia 71% Serbia 66% Slovakia 83% Slovenia 73% Spain 77% Sweden 95% Switzerland 87% Turkey 60% United Kingdom 92% Ukraine 43% MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION LATIN AMERICA Argentina 79% Brazil 68% Chile 80% Colombia 59% Mexico 56% Peru 59% Venezuela 62% *Based on mobile handsets divided by population. Source: CIA World Facebook, July 2015
  • 22. 22 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted Oct. 31–Nov. 18, 2016, and polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 63 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed-methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The Sub-Saharan African countries in this study are compiled from a separate mobile survey methodology among 1,600 respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005. ABOUT NIELSEN Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy. Nielsen’s Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services for all devices on which content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry’s only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also provides its clients with analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90% of the world’s population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies. 17/10805
  • 23. 23Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company