2. 2 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
• The global consumer confidence index was 101 in the fourth quarter, up three points from the first quarter of
2016.
• Forty-four of 63 markets finished the year with higher consumer confidence scores than they had at the start.
• In North America, confidence closed the year at a score of 120, driven by a high U.S. number.
• In Europe, consumer confidence improved in 25 of 34 measured markets from the first quarter to the fourth
quarter, with the biggest increase over the year in the Netherlands (15 points).
• In Asia-Pacific, 10 of 14 markets finished 2016 with higher consumer confidence scores than at the start of the
year, with the biggest increase in the Philippines (13 points).
• In Latin America, three of seven markets ended the year more confident than they started. Brazil was the
biggest mover of the region, increasing 11 points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter.
• In the Africa/Middle East region, confidence declined five points from the first quarter to the fourth quarter,
driven by double-digit drops in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Amid great political and economic change around the world, global
consumer confidence moved modestly in 2016, rising three points between
the first and fourth quarter to 101. Confidence scores in every region except
Africa/Middle East finished the year more strongly than they began. And
while quarter-on-quarter swings occurred in most markets, fourth-quarter
confidence scores increased from the first quarter of 2016 in 44 of the 63
markets measured in the online survey, including eight of the world’s top 10
economies (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, U.K. and U.S.).
2016: AMID A YEAR
OF GREAT CHANGE,
CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE
FINISHED ON A
HIGH NOTE IN MOST
MARKETS
4. 4 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local
job prospects, personal finances and immediate-spending intentions.
Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate
degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively. Within a country,
period-to-period movements of seven points or more are considered
statistically significant. At a global level, movements of two points
are statistically significant; at a regional level, three to four-point
movements are statistically significant. The index and other findings
related to consumer confidence are based on data from the Nielsen
Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions.
Established in 2005, this survey measures consumer confidence,
major concerns and spending intentions among more than 30,000
respondents with internet access in 63 countries.
“The set of factors influencing confidence are multifaceted and go
beyond economics and business,” said Louise Keely, executive vice
president, Nielsen. “In 2016, there were political and social factors
that created uncertainty for consumers in many regions of the world.
Those factors died down somewhat at the end of the year, and average
confidence across regions rebounded a bit. There continues to be wide
variation in confidence across countries, as confidence is affected
more by local conditions than global ones.”
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
The findings in this survey are based on an online methodology in 63 countries. While an online survey
methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits
of existing internet users, not total populations. In developing markets where online penetration is still
growing, audiences may be younger and more affluent than these countries’ general populations. Three
Sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria) utilize a mobile survey methodology and are
not included in the global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed throughout this report. In addition,
survey responses are based on claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data. Cultural differences
in reporting sentiment are likely factors in the measurement of economic outlook across countries. The
reported results do not attempt to control or correct for these differences; therefore, caution should be
exercised when comparing across countries and regions, particularly across regional boundaries.
6. 6 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
OPTIMISM WAS
HIGH IN THE U.S.
AND POSITIVE
MOMENTUM
CONTINUED IN
CANADA
U.S. consumer confidence remained strong in the fourth quarter at 123,
driven by robust increases in all confidence indicators. Seven in 10 U.S.
respondents said they believed their personal finances would be good
or excellent in the next 12 months, an increase of nine percentage points
from the third quarter. More than six in 10 (63%) believed it was a good
time to buy the things they want and need, an increase of 11 percentage
points. Sixty-one percent had confidence in the job market in the year
ahead, an increase of 11 percentage points from the third quarter.
These spikes might have been affected by continued growth of the U.S.
economy and job markets, as well as the completion of the presidential
election cycle.1
Similarly, recessionary sentiment declined dramatically in the fourth
quarter. While 50% of U.S. respondents expressed belief that the country
was in recession in the fourth quarter, nearly half of these respondents
(47%) were confident they would be out of recession in the next 12
months. Of the 51% who believed their country was in recession in the
previous quarter, only 18% believed they would be out in the year ahead.
This optimism translated into a willingness to spend. Intentions to
spend on vacations increased 11 percentage points from the third
quarter, and intentions to buy new technology rose six percentage
points; the number for purchasing clothes rose four percentage points.
Conversely, intention to save declined by five percentage points, and
intention to pay off debts declined three percentage points from the
third quarter. Only 13% of U.S. respondents said they did not have
discretionary funds to spend, an improvement from 16% in the third
quarter.
1
The U.S. jump matches similar jumps within the quarter in a number of U.S.-only surveys, including The Conference Board, the University of
Michigan, and the National Federation of Independent Business. Such jumps usually resolve to some degree in the next quarter’s results.
8. 8 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT
UNITED
STATES
CANADA
+11
+1
61%
70%
63%
44%
47%
61%
PERSONAL
FINANCES
IMMEDIATE
SPENDING
INTENTIONS
JOB
PROSPECTS
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
Q4 2016
PERCENTAGE-POINT
CHANGE FROM Q3 2016
+11
+3
+9
+1
IN NORTH AMERICA, CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IMPROVED
THE MOST IN THE UNITED STATES
10. 10 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“German respondents seem very confident this year,” said Ingo Schier,
managing director, Nielsen Germany. “The confidence of German
consumers rose again in the fourth quarter 2016, and is now at an
optimistic index level of 101 points. Overall, job optimism is high and
the German labor market remains strong. German respondents also are
quite optimistic about their personal finances and believe the coming
year will be a good time to spend money. Despite changes in the world
economy, such as the Brexit and the government change in the U.S.,
private consumption will once again be the primary growth driver
of the German economy in 2017. Terrorism and crime make German
consumers insecure, and these issues were the largest concerns in the
country in the fourth quarter. However, these concerns haven’t had an
immediate impact on local consumer confidence.”
In Belgium, confidence increased eight points from the third quarter to
89, the highest level since 2011. Personal-finance sentiment rose five
percentage points to 46% favorable, immediate-spending intentions
increased seven percentage points to 37%, and the job outlook rose
three percentage points to 34% expressing a positive outlook.
The top concerns for Europeans in the fourth quarter were terrorism
and the economy, each cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern
by 21% of respondents in the region. However, the percentage of
respondents who cited terrorism as a leading concern declined eight
percentage points from the third quarter. In fact, concern about
terrorism dropped in all 34 European countries measured, with the
largest declines in Switzerland (26%, down 14 percentage points),
Belgium (24%, down 14 points), Italy (18%, down 14 points), Denmark
(12%, down 14 points) and Poland (11%, down 14 points). The economy,
job security and health also were major concerns, cited by 21%, 19% and
18% of European respondents, respectively.
“In the last quarter, we’ve seen the first signs of rising inflation in the U.K., with
petrol prices as a prime example,” said Steve Smith, managing director, Nielsen
U.K. and Ireland. “We now expect to see the start of price increases for consumer
staples early in 2017, and perhaps cases of ‘shrinkflation’ as the industry looks
to minimize the price increases being passed on to shoppers. In addition, as
the political and economic planning for Brexit gets under way, concerns about
jobs leaving the U.K. have unsettled consumers. Terrorism threats and the U.S.
election also have created uncertainty. However, times generally remain good
for U.K. consumers, with strong employment and wage growth that rose slightly
ahead of price inflation during the last year. In addition, disposable income
remains stable, while tax benefits for low-wage earners and a rise in the minimum
wage have reduced income inequality. As a result, consumer spending continued
to be the engine of GDP growth in the U.K. in 2016.”
12. 12 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE IN
ASIA-PACIFIC VARIES
WIDELY BY COUNTRY
Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region was relatively stable at 111, a two-
point increase from the third quarter. Confidence was highest in the
emerging markets in the region. India, apparently a nation of determined
optimists, led the way at 136 (up three points from the third quarter),
the highest score in Nielsen’s 63-country survey. New Zealand (103, up
two points from the third quarter) was the only developed market in the
region with a score above the baseline of 100 points.
Regionally, all confidence indicators improved in the third quarter.
Sixty-four percent of respondents in Asia-Pacific said they expected their
personal finances to be good or excellent in the coming year, up one
percentage point from the third quarter. Nearly as many (63%) expressed
optimism about job prospects in the year ahead, an increase of three
percentage points from the third quarter. More than half of regional
respondents (52%) said it is a good or excellent time to buy the things
they want and need, a two-point increase.
Confidence results, however, were largely mixed at the country level.
While consumer confidence increased modestly in six countries in
the fourth quarter, it declined in the same number and was flat in two
others. The largest change was in Singapore, where confidence declined
eight points to 86, the lowest score since first-quarter 2009. Sentiment
declined on all of the confidence indicators measured. Fewer than half
of respondents in Singapore (47%) expressed confidence about their
personal finances in the coming year, a decline of three percentage
points from the third quarter. Roughly one-third said it’s a good time
to spend (35%) or that they were confident about job prospects (31%),
down four and 10 percentage points, respectively.
“The labor market in Singapore has displayed symptoms of weakening
over successive quarters of gradual decline,” said Joan Koh, managing
director, Nielsen Singapore and Malaysia. “Layoffs continued across
the financial-services and banking sectors due to strong wage inflation
and increased cost-of-living expenses. However, unemployment has
remained low and stable, with government support and programs in
place to strengthen businesses and the local workforce over the next
two years. In addition, uncertainty about global trade and heightened
protectionism under the new U.S. presidential administration and recent
diplomatic disputes with China may have increased market volatility
and dampened Singapore’s export-led growth, exerting pressure on the
Singapore dollar and affecting interest rates.”
14. 14 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
India’s consumer confidence score rose three points to 136, the highest
level in 10 years. More than eight in 10 Indian respondents were
confident about their personal finances (85%) and job prospects (84%)
in the coming year, and nearly seven in 10 (69%) said they believe it is a
good time to spend.
The biggest or second-biggest concerns in Asia-Pacific remained
relatively unchanged from the third quarter, with the economy (32%),
health (25%), work/life balance (23%) and job security (23%) topping
the list.
“The three-point increase in the confidence index in the fourth quarter
reflects strong economic and commercial performance at the end of the
third quarter and at the beginning of the fourth quarter, further benefited
by the timing of the festive season, when confidence typically rises,” said
Prasun Basu, president, Nielsen South Asia. “During the survey period, the
Indian government announced demonetization of high-denomination notes.
While this move created short-term constraints for consumers, the long-term
outlook is bullish–a sentiment clearly echoed in other Nielsen research and
by a recently released study by the Reserve Bank of India–thus strengthening
the overall confidence levels for the next 12 months.”
16. 16 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“Though improving at a slower pace than in the third quarter, the
Consumer Confidence Index in Brazil maintained an upward trend in
the fourth quarter,” said Luis Arjona, managing director, Nielsen Chile-
Brazil. “Macroeconomic indicators continue to improve in the country;
most importantly, inflation and interest rates are declining. Nonetheless,
as unemployment will remain high for the balance of 2017, we expect
sustainable growth in the consumer market will be gradual. We remain
optimistic about the economic recovery and expect overall consumption
levels to improve in the second half of 2017.”
In the region, consumer confidence was highest in Peru at 96, despite an
eight-point decline in the fourth quarter. Personal-finance sentiment and
the job prospects outlook declined by double digits in the fourth quarter,
falling 11 percentage points each to 57% and 46% favorable, respectively.
Immediate-spending intentions declined seven percentage points to 37%.
“Confidence in Peru increased for two consecutive quarters immediately
following the presidential election, as the newly-elected government
promised to boost investments and reduce bureaucratic obstacles,”
said Martha Lucía Giraldo, market leader, Nielsen Latin America. “But
optimism has fallen back to pre-election levels, as growth hasn’t occurred
as quickly as many Peruvians expected.”
18. 18 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
In Egypt, the consumer confidence index declined six points to 64, the
lowest level for the country since it was added to the survey in 2007. Only
one-third of Egyptian respondents (34%) believed their personal finances
would be good or excellent during the next 12 months, down eight
percentage points from the third quarter, and roughly one-fifth (21%) felt
it was a good time to buy the items they want and need, a two percentage
point decline.
“Egyptians are living in times of change, and with change, sentiment can
be unsteady,” said Tamar Elaraby, country manager, Nielsen Egypt and
Levant. “The Egyptian pound is going through a process of reevaluation,
ultimately causing inflation and critical changes in the exporting- and
importing-based industries. Until the economy reaches a clear point
of stability, we expect certain fluctuations in consumer confidence to
continue.”
In Saudi Arabia, consumer confidence dipped below 100 for the
first time in 13 quarters, falling six points to 94. Personal-finance
sentiment declined eight percentage points to 48% favorable, and fewer
respondents said it is a good time to buy the items they want and need
(38%, down nine percentage points from the third quarter).
“Sharp declines in oil prices have negatively affected the Saudi economy,
as the sector accounts for roughly 85% of total revenue,” said Arslan
Ashraf, managing director, Nielsen Arabian Peninsula. “Low oil prices
have severely curtailed the government’s spending power, which is
the biggest driver of GDP, and the Saudi government has launched an
austerity drive in response. After raising prices for utilities, such as
electricity, water and petrol in early 2016, the government introduced
new austerity measures in the fourth quarter, including reducing the
allowances of government employees and increasing the visa fees for
expats. This has resulted in a reduction of consumer spending power
and, in turn, consumption.”
20. 20 QUARTER 4 2016 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Q3 2016 Q4 2016Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2016
Sub-Saharan Africa countries use a mobile methodology
GHANA
KENYA
NIGERIA
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES IN GHANA AND NIGERIA IN Q4
104 104 109 111
108 109114 120
120 113 116122