This document analyzes the potential of various technologies for producing sustainable biofuels, emphasizing the need for alternatives to fossil fuels due to environmental concerns and government mandates. It discusses the current state of biofuel production from crops and algae, highlighting challenges such as competition for land, cost issues, and the desire for improved efficiency through technological advancements. The report indicates that while crop-based biofuels are scaling quickly, innovative approaches like synthetic biology in algae offer a promising but yet-to-be-achieved future solution.

1. Which technologies are likely to enable us to meet
longer-term sustainable biofuels targets for
transport?
By GenetiFuel (Howard Siow, Dr Desmond Lun, Lawrence Auffray)
August 2011
Government mandates and energy independence is driving the rapid commercialisation of
sustainable biofuel technologies. This paper looks at which of the current technologies is
likely to meet the sustainability, energy independence, total cost and scale requirements to
replace fossil fuels.
“Energy from the combustion of fossil fuels is the largest source of air pollution
and greenhouse gases. These environmental implications of fossil fuels have
generated political pressure to diversify fuel sources. Among the alternatives to
fossil energy are renewable (including biofuels) and nuclear energy. While the
high capital intensity of power generation means that changes in the fuel mix
occur only very gradually, the proportion of power generation using modern
renewable technologies is projected to grow rapidly from 1% in 2005 to 6% in
2030, including biofuels (source: OECD). Toughening climate change policies are
likely to accelerate.”i
The Market for Liquid Fuel
According the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) 2009 Fact Book, the world consumes 84 million
barrels of fossil fuels (BBL) per day, or 13.3bn litres of oil per day. Of this, USA consumes 18.7M
BBL/day, Europe consumes 13.6M BBL/day, and China consumes 8.2M BBL/dayii. By 2030,
global oil consumption is expected to increase by more than 20% to over 100 million BBL per dayiii.
Global Crude Oil Demand Forecast to 2030
Millions Barrels per Day
30 2030
2020
25
2010
2002
20
15
10
5
0
China India EU USA
Source: Algae 2020 Study, Emerging Markets Online Consulting Services, IAE, EIA forecasts

2. China’s energy consumption projected to exceed 20% of world
consumption, thus outpacing the rest of the BRICs
% of World, Per dollar of GDP
25 Brzail
India
Russia
20
China
15
10
5
0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 1020 2025 2030
Source: Energy Information Administration, Goldman Sachs Global Markets Institute
Governments are determined to develop alternatives to fossil fuels. Instability in oil producing
countries has increased oil supply and price uncertainty, and local inflation. Voters are increasingly
looking towards government‘s sustainability credentials.
A 2010 study by McKinsey found that government mandates are the key drivers towards
production of new biofuels.
Top Drivers for Biofuels Growth
Percent
Mandate 31%
Improved
20%
energey security
Development of
affordable fuels
19%
Need for
19%
sustainable fuels
Other 11%
Regulatory
Source: Oberman R, Sustainable Biofuels Growth: Hurdles and Outcomes (2010)

3. In the USA, federal law requires that 36 billion gallons (equivalent of 136 billion litres/year, 2.74
million BBL/day, about 10% of their oil consumption) of renewable biofuels be consumed annually
by 2022, and that no more than 15 billion gallons of that be from corn ethanol.
Ethanol and Advanced Biofuel Mandate in USA
Federal law requires that 36 billion gallons of renewable biofuels be consumed annually by 2022
and that no more than 15 billion gallons of that be from corn ethanol.
Federal mandated totals (Billions gallons)
Corn ethanol Advanced biofuels
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Source: Energy Information Administration; 2009 Ethanol Industry Outlook
http://blog.oregonlive.com/environment_impact/2009/06/mandate.jpg
Region Key biofuels and clean energy policy drivers
Brazil 1) Ethanol: National Alcohol Program (PROALCOOL) requiring a
minimum of 25% anhydrous ethanol. In practice, most vehicles in
Brazil are now flex-fuel capable for up to an 85% blend of ethanol
(E85) and some can run on E100.
2) Diesel: Mandated minimum 5% biodiesel blend.
European Union 1) Diesel: Directive for Renewable Energy (DRE), establishing an
EU-wide binding target of 10% of transport energy from renewable
sources by 2020, with implementation handled by Member States.
2) Jet fuel: Proposal that all flights to Europe - not just flights
associated with European carriers - be required to comply with
European cap and trade regulations beginning in 2012.
United States 1) Blendstock: Volumetric excise tax credit (VEETC) - "Blenders'
Credit" currently set at $0.45 per gallon for ethanol and $0.60 per
gallon for advanced alcohols
2) All biofuels: RFS2 mandate for 36 billion gallons of biofuels for

4. road transportation by 2022, with associated RINS ranging in value
based on the type of biofuel and market conditions.
3) California's legislature codified the state's renewable portfolio
standard, which calls for 33% of electricity to come from
renewables by 2020. There has also been discussion about
increasing the RPS to 40%.
China Under its 12th Five Year Plan, China increased its solar installed
capacity targets to 10GW by 2015 and 20GW in 2020, with
discussions about a potential 50GW target by 2020. The country's
nuclear plans are being re-examined, but further development will
likely proceed.
Germany Germany suspended production at 7 nuclear plants, representing
about 25% of its nuclear capacity. Germany also targets 80% of
power from renewable sources by 2050.
India Solar installed capacity target moved to 67GW from 20GW by
2020.
Italy Increased solar installed capacity target from 8GW to 23GW by
2016.
Japan Reducing nuclear's share of the overall generation mix and
increasing solar subsidies to accelerate installations ahead of
summer 2011.
Increases in consumption and these government mandates for biofuels has driven significant
investment into biotechnology, including techniques that can helpiv:
• Increase biomass yield/ha while reducing the needs for production inputs;
• Improve crop quality (higher biofuel yields);
• Contribute to also grow energy crops in areas with marginal conditions;
• Develop efficient micro-organisms and enzymes to convert the (hemi)cellulose to sugars,
which can then be fermented into biofuel; and
• Convert agricultural waste into biofuels.
These techniques cannot be scaled up economically or without jeopardising food security.
Yanosek and Victor argue that the rush to meet the collective 2020 targets are only developing
short-term solutionsv that may not actually drive us towards the ultimate objective of supporting a
sustainable replacement to fossil fuels. For example:
• Arable farming land and feedstock being used to produce fuel crops like sugar cane, corn
and wheat.
• Subsistence farmers in Africa being displaced to plant poisonous Jatropha plants.

5. Current BioFuel Technologies
There are generally 2 types of biofuel production:
1. Biofuel generated from farmed crops. Sugarcane (Brazil), Corn (USA and China) or
Wheat (Europe) crops are harvested and the sugars are converted to ethanol in a chemical
process. The cost is as low as 23c/litre in Brazil. The future is to scale and lower costs by
making the process more efficient and by using cheaper biomass materials or developing
technology to extract sugars from cellulosic feedstock (switchgrass) that can grow in less
arable land.
This technology is currently cost competitive with fossil fuels and can scale up to a
maximum of 50% of current fossil fuel capacity. It is, however, highly sensitive to the price
of raw materials (crops) and has to compete for arable farmland.
The goal of crop-based biofuels is to be able to economically produce biofuel from
cellulosic feedstock like switchgrass plants that can be cultivated on low-quality non-farm
land, and thus not compete with arable farmland. The risk with this technology is the
potential environmental issues of farming large areas of this previously uncultivated land,
and the significant scientific challenge to economically utilize cellulosic feedstock.
2. Biofuel generated from Algae. Algae is cultivated in open ponds or photobioreactors
(PBS), harvested and refined into biofuels. Algae seems an idealistic futuristic concept,
where some organisms are placed in waste water or sea water, multiplies and grows and
consumes sunlight, CO2 (potentially next to a coal power station), nutrients and generates
an energy dense biofuel. But we are a long way off from it being commercial without
significant subsides. The lowest current cost is $2.37/litre in open ponds, and $6.30/litre in
PBS. The future is to scale and lower costs by reducing the capital and operating costs of
running PBS and using synthetic biology to do almost all the processing and refining inside
the algae organism.
Although this technology is not currently cost competitive with fossil fuels and in its relative
infant stages (few commercial scale projects), algal biofuel has the potential for significant
scale and does not compete with arable farmland if technological hurdles can be
overcome.
The challenge of algae-based biofuel production is to be able to economically harvest the
algae mass from the ponds or bioreactors, and economically extract the oil from the algae.
Synthetic biologyvi aims to create algal-based organisms that can efficiently consume
sunlight and carbon dioxide and convert it directly into high quality biofuels or even jet fuel
without the need for expensive refining and processing. This technology has already been
proven to work by GenetiFuel with biologically similar E. coli bacteria, which does not
naturally produce biofuel.

6. Biofuel generated from farmed crops
Some studies have shown that scaling up ethanol produced from farmed crops in Brazil have the
ability to replace 50% of fossil fuels vii.
There is enough land for biofuels but 80% lies in the South
Source: Brunner G, Niton Capital, Biofuels and Sustainability (2009)

7. Enough biofeedstock to replace 50% of fuel
Incremental Feedstock Potential 2020 (Millions tons)
Wheat/corn 200
Sugarcane 800
Agricultural
1,000
residues
Energy crops 900
Forestry 900
Total 3.900
Enough for 360 billion gallons
Source: FAPRI, FAOSTAT, Riese J, McKinsey, Beyond the Hype – Perspectives on Growth in
the Biofuels Industry (2007)
Crop-based Ethanol Production Cost
US$ per liter (2007)
Brazil
(sugarcane) 0.18 0.05 0.23
USA (corn) 0.25 0.13 0.39
EU (wheat) 0.34 0.18 0.52
China (corn) 0.48
Raw materials Conversion
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), SRI, McKinsey analysis
Ethanol made from refined farming crops can be produced from Brazil sugar cane for as little as
23c/litre. McKinsey researchviii suggests that by 2020, the cost of producing a litre of ethanol in
Brazil, shipping that litre to Western Europe, paying all relevant tariffs and taxes, and delivering it
to the consumer will be roughly $0.73—far less than today‘s prevailing price of $1.60 for a litre of
gasoline in the European Union:

8. Cost to produce 1 litre of ethanol in Brazil and export to Western
Europe (2020)
US$ per litre
Source: Centro de Estudos Avancados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA), University of Sao Paulo, FNP, National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL), McKinsey analysis
Biofuels from farmed crops is scaling up quickly with
downstream consequences
At current food price and crude oil price levels, farm land used to produce crop-based biofuels is
set to increase rapidly. Emerging technologies will probably make it possible to produce ethanol or
other ―drop in‖ fuels more cheaply with cellulose derived from other feedstocks, such as
switchgrass (which can grow in a broader range of habitats, including relatively inhospitable ones).
These technologies will require significant scientific breakthrough before becoming commercially
viable within the next 10-20 years. Biofuels from residues from other agricultural crops may be
cost effective at producing 5-10% of fuel requirements. For example, in China it may be possible
to produce ethanol from rice straw at a cost of about $0.16 a litre. ix

9. As the cost of oil increases and to meet government mandates, there is an increased drive on
production of biofuel crops. However in scaling up from 71.5 million litres/day to potentially 13
billion litres per day (183 times increase in production to replace fossil fuels), the potential impact
on the land and environment to achieve such large increases in crops in South America and
Africax has to be questioned. This intensive farming is driving the use of arable farming land or
rainforests in some of the world‘s poorest nations to produce oil for the world‘s richest nations.
The key challenges with crop-based biofuel are:
1. Competition for food-based agriculture for arable farmland, including political challenges
around food prices and water security/shortages
xi
2. Competition for feedstock from a growing list of market entrants.
3. Increasing feedstock costs and feedstock price volatility. According to the World Bank, the
cost of maize (up 84 percent), sugar (up 62 percent), wheat (up 55 percent) and soybean
oil (up 47 percent) have now risen to near record highs from mid-2010 to mid-2011.xii
4. Technology to extract cellulosic feedstock is still in infancy, and is a very difficult scientific
problem. It is predicted to be solved by 2020, but like nuclear fision (power from water), it
is still a large unknown.
5. Government mandates for ―non-crop based biofuels‖

10. Biofuel generated from Algae
Algae at first take is an ideal organism for creating feedstocks to manufacture biofuel. Algae:
 ―Blooms‖ when exposed to sunlight, carbon dioxide, and some basic inexpensive nutrients
 Grows almost anywhere, even on sewage or salt water, and does not require fertile land or
food crops
 Minimizes competition with conventional agriculture
 Can capture/recycle stationary emissions of carbon dioxide, wastewater and excess heat
from power stations and other heavy polluting industries, and provide carbon creditsxiii
 Compatible with integrated production of fuels and co-products within biorefineriesxiv
 Can produce other higher value products (Singh and Gu, 2010) and jet fuels
 It has high area productivity and one of the fastest growing plants in the world. The
sugarcane plant, which flourishes only in tropical climates like those of Brazil, produces
6,000 liters of ethanol per hectare, compared with only 3,500 liters from corn.xv
Typical oil yields from the various biomass sources in ascending order
Oil yield (litres/hectare)
Corn 172
Soybean 446
Peanut 1,059
Canola 1,190
Rapeseed 1,190
Jatropha 1,892
Karanji (Pongamia pinnata) 2,590
Cconut 2,689
Oil palm 5,950
Microalgae (70% oil by wt.) 136,900
Microalgae (30% oil by wt.) 58,700
Source: Chisti

11. Algae has significant technological challenges
The biggest challenge of algal-based biofuels is cost and complexities in scaling up. Algae biofuel
producers are working towards finding an algal strain with a high-lipid content, fast growing, easy
to harvest, and reduction in very high extraction and processing costs. Because of these
significant challenges, few large scale commercial projects existxvi.
Current R&D challenges with Algal Biofuels technology arexvii:
1. Feedstock
• Algal Biology: strain selection and genetic manipulation for "best" breeds
• Algal Cultivation: evaluate cultivation technologies (open, closed, hybrid, coastal,
photobioreactor, heterotrophic, mixotrophic) for cost, scalability and environmental
impactxviii
• Harvesting and Dewatering: Evaluate cost and sustainability of approaches
(sedimentation, flocculation, dissolved air floatation, filtration, centrifugation, mechanized
seaweed harvesting)
2. Conversion
• Extraction and Fractionation (eg. sonication, selective extraction): minimise waste and
energy to achieve high yield of desired intermediates; preserve co-products
• Fuel Conversion (eg. thermochemical conversion, anaerobic digestion): improve
efficiency, redice contaminants and emissions
• Co-products (high value chemicals and materials, like bioplastics, animal feed, biogas,
fertilizers, industrial enzymes): improve extraction and recovery
3. Infrastructure
• Distribution and Utilization: Establishing supply chain and meeting regulatory
classification requirements
• Resources and siting: Integrate production systems with wastewater treatment, CO2
and land resource requirements
Algae-based biofuels is waiting for a disruptive technology to overcome these technological issues
and significantly improve the economics.

12. The next generation of Algae biofuel technology
To overcome these challenges, the future of Algae-based biofuels is to create a completely new
algae organism, using synthetic biology that can directly produce and secrete finished biofuels and
high value products. Synthetic biology allows organisms to be genetically engineered on a large
scale to fundamentally modify their behaviour. As opposed to traditional genetic engineering,
which typically involves modifying single genes to improve traits, synthetic biology uses
engineering principles to modify whole systems of genes, allowing fundamental changes in
function. Synthetic biology is made possible by rapid advancements in genomic technologies for
sequencing and synthesizing DNA that are revolutionizing biology and biological engineering.
The aim of synthetic biology for biofuel production is to manufacture an organism capable of
harnessing solar energy to convert carbon dioxide to fuels such as biodiesel, biogasoline, and
biojet fuel at maximum efficiency and of secreting the fuel into the organism‘s growth media so that
it can be easily skimmed from the bioreactor. This would eliminate the major costs associated with
algae harvesting and extraction, and also refining the algal oil into finished products. The only
major process cost would be the cost of running photobioreactors to grow the organism. Though
the technology still requires significant development, it is the most viable candidate for producing
biofuel in a way that is scalable, sustainable, and cost competitive to fossil fuels.
Genetifuel is taking a rational design approach to synthetic biology that uses computer modelling
to identify how organisms need to be modified for biofuel production. We have proven our
approach on engineering the bacterium E. coli to efficiently produce fatty acids, which are close
chemical relatives of biodiesel, biogasoline, and biojet fuel. E. coli converts sugars to fatty acids,
which Is not ultimately scalable because the sugars need to be obtained from food crops.
Genetifuel is now working on applying our rational design approach to a strain of blue-green algae,
allowing direct, high-efficiency conversion of carbon dioxide to fatty acids using solar energy.

13. The goal of synthetic biology algae is to achieve large scale biofuels with low capital costs that can
produce biofuel below the cost of mining and refining fossil fuel-based petrol. However an
important advantage of synthetic biology Algae is that the algae-based organisms can also
produce a number of other amino fatty acid based products very cost effectively. Companies such
as Amyris has taken advantage of this to profitably make products at up to $4 per litre.
Higher value products that can be manufactured from synthetic biology Algae
Market size (billions, log scale)
Source: Goldman Sachs Research
―Algae 2020 study has reported the estimated costs to produce algae oils and algae biodiesel
today between $9 and $25 per gallon in ponds, and $15–$40 in photobioreactors (PBRs). Since
algae production systems are a complex composite of several sub-sets of systems (i.e. production,
harvesting, extraction, drying systems), reducing the number of steps in algae biofuels production
is essential to providing easier, better, and lower cost systems.
―A crucial economic challenge for algae producers is to discover low cost oil extraction and
harvesting methods. With the advent of cheaper photobioreactors (PBRs), these costs are likely to
come down significantly in the next few years. In the present scenario, reducing these costs is
critical to algae biofuel companies for its successful commercial implementation. Extraction
systems with estimates up to $15 per gallon of oil produced depending on the extraction method
can be less than cost-effective. For example, Origin Oil has developed a technology to combine
harvesting and extraction systems into a single process that is designed to reduce system
complexity and costs for algae producers. Another example is to employ a method that uses algae
cells as mini-processors and refineries in a process referred to as ‗milking the algae‘ that will
consume CO2 and excrete hydrocarbon fuels directly.

14. ―One company, Algae to Energy, uses a patented system from Missing Link Technology that can
extract algae oil from 0.08 up to $0.29 per gallon (depending on the species used) compared to
other algae extraction methods ranging from $2 a gallon up to $12 per gallon.
―Another example is a harvesting technology from Algae Venture Systems that costs less than
$0.30 per gallon of oil harvested compared to traditional centrifuge technologies which can cost up
to $1 or more per gallon. Cost reductions in algae production systems are essential for algae
producers to establish economically sustainable and profitable enterprises.
―Examples of this include Arizona State‘s blue–green algae that excrete a kerosene type of jet fuel
and Algenol‘s blue–green algae that excrete ethanol fuel directly. There are also a few species of
algae that will naturally excrete oils from the cells. By milking the algae, these algal micro-
refineries help to bypass the harvesting, extraction and refining systems all together by excreting
forms of biofuels directly from the cells. These methods have the capability to significantly reduce
production costs, and help to simplify complex processes for emerging algae producers and
customers of
new algae biofuels production systems.
―Finally the co-production of some more valuable fraction and their marketing is also important for
the success. Even with algae species with up to 50% oil content, the additional 50% of the
biomass remains. This biomass fraction contains valuable proteins for livestock, poultry and fish
feed additives valued from $800 up to $2500 per tonne.‖xix
Conclusion
Some groups have claimed that current crop-based biofuels technologies not only can be
produced for less than fossil-fuel based fuel, but can also be scaled up to supply perhaps 50% of
global oil demands. These economics means government mandates for biofuels are likely to
continue to drive the conversion of food crops to oil crops. Given forecasted severe global food
and water shortages and already worrying signs about the displacement of food crops to produce
more profitable oil crops, the trend is moving towards biofuel sources such as microalgae, which
are not crop based.
Microalgae still faces significant scale and production cost constraints. Despite aggressive claims
to be able to scale up and achieve costs of between US$0.50 to US$1.00 per litre, the algae
biofuel industry is still perhaps 10 years and many hundreds of millions of dollars of research away
from achieving its scale and cost objectives.
Companies like GenetiFuel are trying to solve these significant issues by engineering new algae-
based organisms that can organically produce finished biofuel or oil products. While these
technologies appear to be able to achieve cost and scale requirements, there are still scalability
issues that will need to be solved over a 5 year time period.

15. Authors
GenetiFuel
GenetiFuel is in the process of raising US$3.5m for building a pilot of its biofuels using synthetic
biology.
Lawrence Auffray
CEO, GenetiFuel
lawrence_auffray@genetifuel.com
Ph. +61 401 164 860 (Australia)
Lawrence has over 20 years business experience primarily in the energy sector ranging from
commercial & financial advisory, business management, project management,
consulting/strategy, regulatory, policy, risk business planning and operations.
He is a member of the Infrastructure Partnership Australia Energy and Sustainability Taskforce
As an Engineer and recognised leader in the sector has advised many clients in moving to a low
carbon economy
Dr Desmond Lun
Chief Scientist, GenetiFuel
Desmond started research at MIT in 2002 (10 years of research experience) and is a recognized
expert in complex systems engineering and synthetic biology.
He is currently Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science and Center for
Computational and Integrative Biology, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
He received his PhD in electrical engineering and computer science from the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT) and did postdoctoral training in genetics at Harvard Medical School.
Desmond has published 15 peer-reviewed journal papers.
Howard Siow
Strategy, GenetiFuel
Howard has 7 years management consulting experience in the Energy & Utilities sector with
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Accenture, AGL, Energex, Energy Australia and TXU (TRUenergy / SP
Ausnet).
His experience includes large energy reform, energy business model review, process and
technology change and sales & marketing.
Howard has experience in managing and growing successful startup companies.
i
Goldman Sachs, Clean Energy Report (2011)
ii
CIA World Fact Book (2009), https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2174rank.html
iii
Algae 2020 Study, Emerging Markets Online Consulting Services, IAE, EIA Forecasts
iv
Carrez D, European Association for Bioindustries, Biofuels in Europe (2007)
v
Victor D, Yanosek K, The Crises in Clean Energy (2011) (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/67876)
vi
Victor D, Yanosek K, The Crises in Clean Energy (2011) (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/67876)

16. vii
Riese J, McKinsey, Beyond the Hype – Perspectives on Growth in the Biofuels Industry (2007)
viii
Assis V, McKinsey Quarterly: Positioning Brazil for biofuels success (2007),
https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Food_Agriculture/Strategy_Analysis/Positioning_Brazil_for_biofuels_success_1
950
ix
Assis V, McKinsey Quarterly: Positioning Brazil for biofuels success (2007),
https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Food_Agriculture/Strategy_Analysis/Positioning_Brazil_for_biofuels_success_1
950
x
FAPRI, FAOSTAT, expert interviews, McKinsey analysis
xi
http://crossedcrocodiles.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/africabiofuelslandgrab.jpg
xii
The World Bank, Near Record High Food Prices Keep Poorest People on the Edge (August 2011),
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22982095~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSiteP
K:4607,00.html
xiii
US Department of Energy, National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap (2010)
xiv
US Department of Energy, National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap (2010)
xv
Assis V, McKinsey Quarterly: Positioning Brazil for biofuels success (2007),
https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Food_Agriculture/Strategy_Analysis/Positioning_Brazil_for_biofuels_success_1
950
xvi
Ribeiro L, Innovative Biofuel Technologies: Microalgae Analysis (2011)
xvii
US Department of Energy, National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap (2010)
xviii
US Department of Energy, National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap (2010)
xix
Singh J, Gu S, Commercialization potential of microalgae for biofuels production (2010)