Bell mini conference RDG.pptx
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1) The document discusses Marian Kupczynski's paper on whether John Bell would choose contextuality or nonlocality today based on graphical models representing random variables. 2) It presents a graphical model showing source hidden variables, context dependent instrument hidden variables, and Alice and Bob's outcome variables that may be correlated. 3) It notes that assuming the instrument hidden variables are uncorrelated leads to the CHSH inequality holding, while allowing them to be correlated allows any four joint probability distributions, and discusses Kupczynski's consideration of the detection loophole.
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Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlands
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
Richard's entangled aventures in wonderland
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
A tale of two Lucys - Delft lecture - March 4, 2024
TUDelft Seminar Probability & Statistics, 4 March 2024
15:45 T/M 16:45 - LOCATION: LECTURE HALL D@TA
Lucia de Berk, a Dutch nurse, was arrested in 2001, and tried and convicted of serial murder of patients in her care. At a lower court the only hard evidence against her was the result of a probability calculation: the chance that she was present at so many suspicious deaths and collapses in the hospitals where she had worked was 1 in 342 million. During appeal proceedings at a higher court, the prosecution shifted gears and gave the impression that there was now hard evidence that she had killed one baby. Having established that she was a killer and a liar (she claimed innocence) it was not difficult to pin another 9 deaths and collapses on her. No statistics were needed any more. In 2005 the conviction was confirmed by the supreme court. But at the same time, some whistleblowers started getting attention from the media. A long fight for the hearts and minds of the public, and a long fight to have the case reopened (without any new evidence - only new scientific interpretation of existing evidence) began and ended in 2010 with Lucia’s complete exoneration. A number of statisticians played a big role in that fight. The idea that the conviction was purely based on objective scientific evidence was actually an illusion. This needed to be explained to journalists & to the public. And the judiciary needed to be convinced that something had to be done about it.
Lucy Letby, an English nurse, was arrested in 2020 for murder of a large number of babies at a hospital in Chester, UK, in Jan 2015-June 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and took 10 months. She was convicted and given a whole life sentence in 2023.
In my opinion, the similarities between the two cases are horrific. Again there is statistical evidence: a cluster of unexplained bad events, and Lucy was there every time; there is apparently irrefutable scientific evidence for two babies; and just like with Lucia de Berk, there are some weird personal and private writings which can be construed as a confession. For many reasons, the chances of a fair retrial for Lucy Letby are very thin indeed, but I am convinced she is innocent and that her trial was grossly unfair.
liverpool_2024
Optimal statistical analysis of Bell experiments
Richard D Gill (Mathematical Institute, Leiden University)
The 2022 Nobel prize in physics went to Clauser, Horne and Zeilinger '“for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science”. I played a modest part in the process which led up to that prize by contributing statistical methodology used in four decisive “loophole free" experiments of 2020. What I contributed was quite simply the idea of using randomisation in order to get guaranteed statistical validity, and martingale methods which allowed the experimenters to rule out the notion that an apparent violation of Bell’s inequality could simply be due to time trends in physical parameters over the course of an experiment which takes days to complete (confounding of treatment with time). Most recently I have studied some simple methods to reduce noise in the usual ad hoc estimators of the four correlations which figure in Bell’s inequality. Do not fear: the statistical model is very simple, no knowledge of quantum mechanics is needed to understand the statistical issues. The talk is about the statistical analysis of four 2x2 tables.
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9909/3/2/23
A tale of two Lucies (long version)
Subtitle: "Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse"
Abstract:
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a “full life” sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letby’s lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in “Science” about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats
https://www.maths.lu.se/kalendarium/?evenemang=statistics-seminar-statistical-issues-investigation-suspected-serial-killer-nurse-richard-gill
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxmFLKTlim8
A tale of two Lucies.pdf
The RSS has published a report tackling statistical bias in criminal trials where healthcare professionals are accused of murdering patients. Following several high-profile cases where statistical evidence has been misused, the Society calls for all parties in such cases to consult with professional statisticians and use only expert witnesses who are appropriately qualified.
The report, ‘Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?’, is produced by the RSS’s Statistics and the Law Section. The group evolved from a working group of the same name set up in early 2000s after the Society wrote to the Lord Chancellor and made a statement setting out concerns around the use of statistical evidence in the case of Sally Clark.
According to the report, suspicions about medical murder often arise due to a surprising or unexpected series of events, such as an unusual number of deaths among patients under the care of a particular professional.
The RSS has major concerns about use of this kind of evidence in a criminal investigation: first, over the analysis and interpretation of such data, and secondly over whether it can be guaranteed that the data have been compiled in an objective and unbiased manner.
A tale of two Lucy’s (as given)
Subtitle: Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract:
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a “full life” sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letby’s lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in “Science” about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats
A tale of two Lucy’s
Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a “full life” sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letby’s lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in “Science” about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats
Recommended
Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlands
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
Richard's entangled aventures in wonderland
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
A tale of two Lucys - Delft lecture - March 4, 2024
TUDelft Seminar Probability & Statistics, 4 March 2024
15:45 T/M 16:45 - LOCATION: LECTURE HALL D@TA
Lucia de Berk, a Dutch nurse, was arrested in 2001, and tried and convicted of serial murder of patients in her care. At a lower court the only hard evidence against her was the result of a probability calculation: the chance that she was present at so many suspicious deaths and collapses in the hospitals where she had worked was 1 in 342 million. During appeal proceedings at a higher court, the prosecution shifted gears and gave the impression that there was now hard evidence that she had killed one baby. Having established that she was a killer and a liar (she claimed innocence) it was not difficult to pin another 9 deaths and collapses on her. No statistics were needed any more. In 2005 the conviction was confirmed by the supreme court. But at the same time, some whistleblowers started getting attention from the media. A long fight for the hearts and minds of the public, and a long fight to have the case reopened (without any new evidence - only new scientific interpretation of existing evidence) began and ended in 2010 with Lucia’s complete exoneration. A number of statisticians played a big role in that fight. The idea that the conviction was purely based on objective scientific evidence was actually an illusion. This needed to be explained to journalists & to the public. And the judiciary needed to be convinced that something had to be done about it.
Lucy Letby, an English nurse, was arrested in 2020 for murder of a large number of babies at a hospital in Chester, UK, in Jan 2015-June 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and took 10 months. She was convicted and given a whole life sentence in 2023.
In my opinion, the similarities between the two cases are horrific. Again there is statistical evidence: a cluster of unexplained bad events, and Lucy was there every time; there is apparently irrefutable scientific evidence for two babies; and just like with Lucia de Berk, there are some weird personal and private writings which can be construed as a confession. For many reasons, the chances of a fair retrial for Lucy Letby are very thin indeed, but I am convinced she is innocent and that her trial was grossly unfair.
liverpool_2024
Optimal statistical analysis of Bell experiments
Richard D Gill (Mathematical Institute, Leiden University)
The 2022 Nobel prize in physics went to Clauser, Horne and Zeilinger '“for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science”. I played a modest part in the process which led up to that prize by contributing statistical methodology used in four decisive “loophole free" experiments of 2020. What I contributed was quite simply the idea of using randomisation in order to get guaranteed statistical validity, and martingale methods which allowed the experimenters to rule out the notion that an apparent violation of Bell’s inequality could simply be due to time trends in physical parameters over the course of an experiment which takes days to complete (confounding of treatment with time). Most recently I have studied some simple methods to reduce noise in the usual ad hoc estimators of the four correlations which figure in Bell’s inequality. Do not fear: the statistical model is very simple, no knowledge of quantum mechanics is needed to understand the statistical issues. The talk is about the statistical analysis of four 2x2 tables.
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9909/3/2/23
A tale of two Lucies (long version)
Subtitle: "Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse"
Abstract:
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a “full life” sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letby’s lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in “Science” about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats
https://www.maths.lu.se/kalendarium/?evenemang=statistics-seminar-statistical-issues-investigation-suspected-serial-killer-nurse-richard-gill
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxmFLKTlim8
A tale of two Lucies.pdf
The RSS has published a report tackling statistical bias in criminal trials where healthcare professionals are accused of murdering patients. Following several high-profile cases where statistical evidence has been misused, the Society calls for all parties in such cases to consult with professional statisticians and use only expert witnesses who are appropriately qualified.
The report, ‘Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?’, is produced by the RSS’s Statistics and the Law Section. The group evolved from a working group of the same name set up in early 2000s after the Society wrote to the Lord Chancellor and made a statement setting out concerns around the use of statistical evidence in the case of Sally Clark.
According to the report, suspicions about medical murder often arise due to a surprising or unexpected series of events, such as an unusual number of deaths among patients under the care of a particular professional.
The RSS has major concerns about use of this kind of evidence in a criminal investigation: first, over the analysis and interpretation of such data, and secondly over whether it can be guaranteed that the data have been compiled in an objective and unbiased manner.
A tale of two Lucy’s (as given)
Subtitle: Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract:
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a “full life” sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letby’s lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in “Science” about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats
A tale of two Lucy’s
Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a “full life” sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letby’s lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in “Science” about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats
vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
I discuss various statistical analyses of the recent Bell experiment of Storz et al. (2023, Nature) at ETH Zurich. Both standard and novel analyses under different assumptions result in almost identical conclusions. This suggests strongly that those assumptions are actually satisfied.
vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
The experimenters performed a loophole-free Bell test using superconducting qubits separated by 30 meters. They entangled pairs of qubits and measured them in randomly chosen bases over 1 million trials. They found an average S value of 2.0747 ± 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum mechanics and applications in quantum information processing.
vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
- The authors performed a loophole-free Bell test experiment using superconducting circuits to violate Bell's inequality. They entangled pairs of qubits over a 30 meter distance and measured them in randomly chosen bases, accumulating over 1 million trials.
- The average S value obtained was 2.0747 ± 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations between the spatially separated qubits. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum physics and applications in quantum information.
Apeldoorn.pdf
What is the chance it was just a coincidence? Talk in Apeldoorn cultural society OKW on serial killer nurses, forensic science, and statistics.
LundTalk2.pdf
Statistics, causality, and the 2022 Nobel prizes in physics.
Richard Gill
Leiden University
The 2022 Nobel prize in physics was awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger "for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science”. I will explain each of these three gentlemen’s contributions and point out connections to classical statistical causality and probabilistic coupling. It seems that the first commercial application of this work will be a technology called DIQKD: "device independent quantum key distribution". Alice and Bob are far apart and need to establish a shared cryptographic key so as to send one another some securely encrypted messages over public communication channels. How can they create a suitable key while far apart from one another, and only able to communicate using classical means and over public channels?
LundTalk.pdf
Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University
Abstract: The UK’s *Royal Statistical Society* recently published a report tackling statistical bias in criminal trials where healthcare professionals are accused of murdering patients. Following several high-profile cases where statistical evidence has been misused, the Society calls for all parties in such cases to consult with professional statisticians and use only expert witnesses who are appropriately qualified.
The RSS report came out just two weeks before the start of the trial in Manchester of a nurse called Lucy Letby. The trial is still ongoing. So far, neither side has called for evidence from experts in statistics. The core of the prosecution case is that so many odd events connected to nurse LL cannot be a coincidence.
I will discuss the challenges both procedural and conceptual which arise when presenting statistical thinking as evidence in criminal trials. https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
Breed, BOAS, CFR.pdf
The Utrecht University veterinary school was commissioned by the Dutch government to provide objective criteria for breeding short-muzzled dogs. Utrecht proposed 6 external characteristics rated on a traffic light system related to risks of Brachycephalic Obstructive Airway Syndrome and Brachycephalic Ocular Syndrome. These included abnormal breathing, nostril shape, relative muzzle length, nasal folds, eye exposure and eyelid closure. Utrecht determined standards for each characteristic and concluded that dogs meeting certain standards could be used for breeding while those exceeding the standards should not due to increased health risks. Utrecht based their recommendations on scientific studies and expertise in companion animal genetics. However, their criteria are still debated by other scientists and
herring_copenhagen.pdf
We analyse data from the final two years of a long-running and influential annual Dutch survey of the quality of Dutch New Herring served in large samples of consumer outlets. The data was compiled and analysed by a university econometrician whose findings were publicized in national and international media. This led to the cessation of the survey amid allegations of bias due to a conflict of interest on the part of the leader of the herring tasting team. The survey organizers responded with accusations of failure of scientific integrity. The econometrician was acquitted of wrong-doing by the Dutch authority, whose inquiry nonetheless concluded that further research was needed. We reconstitute the data and uncover its important features which throw new light on the econometrician's findings, focussing on the issue of correlation versus causality: the sample is definitely not a random sample. Taking account both of newly discovered data features and of the sampling mechanism, we conclude that there is no evidence of biased evaluation, despite the econometrician's renewed insistence on his claim.
Nobel.pdf
This year’s Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bell’s landmark 1964 paper “On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox”, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful “loophole-free” Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (“Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution”) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhard’s discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilinger’s discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
Nobel.pdf
This year’s Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bell’s landmark 1964 paper “On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox”, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful “loophole-free” Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (“Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution”) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhard’s discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilinger’s discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
Better slides: https://www.slideshare.net/gill1109/nobelpdf-253673329
Schrödinger’s cat meets Occam’s razor
Solution to the measurement problem based on Belavkin's theory of Eventum Mechanics. There is only Schrödinger’s equation and a unitary evolution of the wave function of the universe, but we must add a Heisenberg cut to separate the past from the future (to separate particles from waves): Belavkin’s eventum mechanics. The past is a commuting sub-algebra A of the algebra of all observables B, and in the Heisenberg picture, the past history of any observable in A is also in A. Particles have definite trajectories back into the past; Eventum Mechanics defines the probability distributions of future given past. https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.2723 Schrödinger's cat meets Occam's razor (version 3: 10 Aug 2022); to appear in Entropy
optimizedBell.pptx
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
optimizedBell.pptx
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
Gull talk London.pdf
It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
R.D. Gill (2022) Gull's theorem revisited, Entropy 2022, 24(5), 679 (11pp.)
https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/5/679
https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00719
Gull talk London.pdf
NB: This is a preliminary version, superceded by my next upload. It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
Statistical issues in Serial Killer Nurse cases
- In serial killer nurse cases, clusters of suspicious deaths or incidents are often associated with a particular nurse on duty. However, alternative explanations for such clusters are difficult to rule out given the low base rate of nurses committing murder.
- Statistical evidence plays a key role in these cases but can be misleading if not interpreted carefully. Characteristics of the hospital system and processes of gathering evidence can inadvertently influence statistical analyses.
- Close examination of data in one case found that statistics were selectively reported in ways that exaggerated the nurse's involvement, such as restricting time periods analyzed. Complete data sets have sometimes contradicted initial statistical impressions.
Dalembert
The article discusses the d'Alembert betting system, one of the most popular systems used in casinos in the 19th century. While the systems appear to guarantee success by equalizing wins and losses over time, they fail to account for the risk of running out of money before wins and losses balance out. However, the systems can provide surprisingly high returns on investment when wins do occur, obscuring the overall negative expected value. The article analyzes how systems like the d'Alembert are seductive due to the potential for large gains despite the inevitability of overall losses in the long run.
Bell in paris
Bell experiments, Bell-denialism, and the quantum Randi challenge. Séminaire de Statistique, CREST-CMAP, Lundi 4 octobre 2021 à 14h. The Bell game, and proof of a strong (tail probability inequality) version of CHSH inequality, as used in 2015 loophole free experiments.
CHANCE Lucia JSM 2021
In the conviction of Lucia de Berk an important role was played by a simple hypergeometric model, used by the expert consulted by the court, which produced very small probabilities of occurrences of certain numbers of incidents. We want to draw attention to the fact that, if we take into account the variation among nurses in incidents they experience during their shifts, these probabilities can become considerably larger. This points to the danger of using an oversimplified discrete probability model in these circumstances.
BenGeen long talk
This document discusses statistical issues related to cases involving serial killer nurses. It focuses on two specific cases - Lucia de Berk, a Dutch nurse convicted of murder but later exonerated, and Ben Geen, an English nurse convicted of murder and grievous bodily harm. In Ben Geen's case, a statistical expert was not allowed to present evidence that could have shown biases in how suspicious cases were identified. The document also provides background on other cases involving serial killer nurses to highlight the need for better understanding of this phenomenon from both statistical and criminological perspectives. Statisticians involved in such cases need to be aware of potential pitfalls.
Unlocking the mysteries of reproduction: Exploring fecundity and gonadosomati...
The pygmy halfbeak Dermogenys colletei, is known for its viviparous nature, this presents an intriguing case of relatively low fecundity, raising questions about potential compensatory reproductive strategies employed by this species. Our study delves into the examination of fecundity and the Gonadosomatic Index (GSI) in the Pygmy Halfbeak, D. colletei (Meisner, 2001), an intriguing viviparous fish indigenous to Sarawak, Borneo. We hypothesize that the Pygmy halfbeak, D. colletei, may exhibit unique reproductive adaptations to offset its low fecundity, thus enhancing its survival and fitness. To address this, we conducted a comprehensive study utilizing 28 mature female specimens of D. colletei, carefully measuring fecundity and GSI to shed light on the reproductive adaptations of this species. Our findings reveal that D. colletei indeed exhibits low fecundity, with a mean of 16.76 ± 2.01, and a mean GSI of 12.83 ± 1.27, providing crucial insights into the reproductive mechanisms at play in this species. These results underscore the existence of unique reproductive strategies in D. colletei, enabling its adaptation and persistence in Borneo's diverse aquatic ecosystems, and call for further ecological research to elucidate these mechanisms. This study lends to a better understanding of viviparous fish in Borneo and contributes to the broader field of aquatic ecology, enhancing our knowledge of species adaptations to unique ecological challenges.
bordetella pertussis.................................ppt
Bordettela is a gram negative cocobacilli spread by air born drop let
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vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
I discuss various statistical analyses of the recent Bell experiment of Storz et al. (2023, Nature) at ETH Zurich. Both standard and novel analyses under different assumptions result in almost identical conclusions. This suggests strongly that those assumptions are actually satisfied.
vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
The experimenters performed a loophole-free Bell test using superconducting qubits separated by 30 meters. They entangled pairs of qubits and measured them in randomly chosen bases over 1 million trials. They found an average S value of 2.0747 ± 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum mechanics and applications in quantum information processing.
vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
- The authors performed a loophole-free Bell test experiment using superconducting circuits to violate Bell's inequality. They entangled pairs of qubits over a 30 meter distance and measured them in randomly chosen bases, accumulating over 1 million trials.
- The average S value obtained was 2.0747 ± 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations between the spatially separated qubits. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum physics and applications in quantum information.
Apeldoorn.pdf
What is the chance it was just a coincidence? Talk in Apeldoorn cultural society OKW on serial killer nurses, forensic science, and statistics.
LundTalk2.pdf
Statistics, causality, and the 2022 Nobel prizes in physics.
Richard Gill
Leiden University
The 2022 Nobel prize in physics was awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger "for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science”. I will explain each of these three gentlemen’s contributions and point out connections to classical statistical causality and probabilistic coupling. It seems that the first commercial application of this work will be a technology called DIQKD: "device independent quantum key distribution". Alice and Bob are far apart and need to establish a shared cryptographic key so as to send one another some securely encrypted messages over public communication channels. How can they create a suitable key while far apart from one another, and only able to communicate using classical means and over public channels?
LundTalk.pdf
Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University
Abstract: The UK’s *Royal Statistical Society* recently published a report tackling statistical bias in criminal trials where healthcare professionals are accused of murdering patients. Following several high-profile cases where statistical evidence has been misused, the Society calls for all parties in such cases to consult with professional statisticians and use only expert witnesses who are appropriately qualified.
The RSS report came out just two weeks before the start of the trial in Manchester of a nurse called Lucy Letby. The trial is still ongoing. So far, neither side has called for evidence from experts in statistics. The core of the prosecution case is that so many odd events connected to nurse LL cannot be a coincidence.
I will discuss the challenges both procedural and conceptual which arise when presenting statistical thinking as evidence in criminal trials. https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
Breed, BOAS, CFR.pdf
The Utrecht University veterinary school was commissioned by the Dutch government to provide objective criteria for breeding short-muzzled dogs. Utrecht proposed 6 external characteristics rated on a traffic light system related to risks of Brachycephalic Obstructive Airway Syndrome and Brachycephalic Ocular Syndrome. These included abnormal breathing, nostril shape, relative muzzle length, nasal folds, eye exposure and eyelid closure. Utrecht determined standards for each characteristic and concluded that dogs meeting certain standards could be used for breeding while those exceeding the standards should not due to increased health risks. Utrecht based their recommendations on scientific studies and expertise in companion animal genetics. However, their criteria are still debated by other scientists and
herring_copenhagen.pdf
We analyse data from the final two years of a long-running and influential annual Dutch survey of the quality of Dutch New Herring served in large samples of consumer outlets. The data was compiled and analysed by a university econometrician whose findings were publicized in national and international media. This led to the cessation of the survey amid allegations of bias due to a conflict of interest on the part of the leader of the herring tasting team. The survey organizers responded with accusations of failure of scientific integrity. The econometrician was acquitted of wrong-doing by the Dutch authority, whose inquiry nonetheless concluded that further research was needed. We reconstitute the data and uncover its important features which throw new light on the econometrician's findings, focussing on the issue of correlation versus causality: the sample is definitely not a random sample. Taking account both of newly discovered data features and of the sampling mechanism, we conclude that there is no evidence of biased evaluation, despite the econometrician's renewed insistence on his claim.
Nobel.pdf
This year’s Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bell’s landmark 1964 paper “On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox”, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful “loophole-free” Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (“Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution”) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhard’s discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilinger’s discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
Nobel.pdf
This year’s Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bell’s landmark 1964 paper “On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox”, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful “loophole-free” Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (“Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution”) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhard’s discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilinger’s discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
Better slides: https://www.slideshare.net/gill1109/nobelpdf-253673329
Schrödinger’s cat meets Occam’s razor
Solution to the measurement problem based on Belavkin's theory of Eventum Mechanics. There is only Schrödinger’s equation and a unitary evolution of the wave function of the universe, but we must add a Heisenberg cut to separate the past from the future (to separate particles from waves): Belavkin’s eventum mechanics. The past is a commuting sub-algebra A of the algebra of all observables B, and in the Heisenberg picture, the past history of any observable in A is also in A. Particles have definite trajectories back into the past; Eventum Mechanics defines the probability distributions of future given past. https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.2723 Schrödinger's cat meets Occam's razor (version 3: 10 Aug 2022); to appear in Entropy
optimizedBell.pptx
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
optimizedBell.pptx
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
Gull talk London.pdf
It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
R.D. Gill (2022) Gull's theorem revisited, Entropy 2022, 24(5), 679 (11pp.)
https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/5/679
https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00719
Gull talk London.pdf
NB: This is a preliminary version, superceded by my next upload. It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
Statistical issues in Serial Killer Nurse cases
- In serial killer nurse cases, clusters of suspicious deaths or incidents are often associated with a particular nurse on duty. However, alternative explanations for such clusters are difficult to rule out given the low base rate of nurses committing murder.
- Statistical evidence plays a key role in these cases but can be misleading if not interpreted carefully. Characteristics of the hospital system and processes of gathering evidence can inadvertently influence statistical analyses.
- Close examination of data in one case found that statistics were selectively reported in ways that exaggerated the nurse's involvement, such as restricting time periods analyzed. Complete data sets have sometimes contradicted initial statistical impressions.
Dalembert
The article discusses the d'Alembert betting system, one of the most popular systems used in casinos in the 19th century. While the systems appear to guarantee success by equalizing wins and losses over time, they fail to account for the risk of running out of money before wins and losses balance out. However, the systems can provide surprisingly high returns on investment when wins do occur, obscuring the overall negative expected value. The article analyzes how systems like the d'Alembert are seductive due to the potential for large gains despite the inevitability of overall losses in the long run.
Bell in paris
Bell experiments, Bell-denialism, and the quantum Randi challenge. Séminaire de Statistique, CREST-CMAP, Lundi 4 octobre 2021 à 14h. The Bell game, and proof of a strong (tail probability inequality) version of CHSH inequality, as used in 2015 loophole free experiments.
CHANCE Lucia JSM 2021
In the conviction of Lucia de Berk an important role was played by a simple hypergeometric model, used by the expert consulted by the court, which produced very small probabilities of occurrences of certain numbers of incidents. We want to draw attention to the fact that, if we take into account the variation among nurses in incidents they experience during their shifts, these probabilities can become considerably larger. This points to the danger of using an oversimplified discrete probability model in these circumstances.
BenGeen long talk
This document discusses statistical issues related to cases involving serial killer nurses. It focuses on two specific cases - Lucia de Berk, a Dutch nurse convicted of murder but later exonerated, and Ben Geen, an English nurse convicted of murder and grievous bodily harm. In Ben Geen's case, a statistical expert was not allowed to present evidence that could have shown biases in how suspicious cases were identified. The document also provides background on other cases involving serial killer nurses to highlight the need for better understanding of this phenomenon from both statistical and criminological perspectives. Statisticians involved in such cases need to be aware of potential pitfalls.
More from Richard Gill (20)
Recently uploaded
Unlocking the mysteries of reproduction: Exploring fecundity and gonadosomati...
The pygmy halfbeak Dermogenys colletei, is known for its viviparous nature, this presents an intriguing case of relatively low fecundity, raising questions about potential compensatory reproductive strategies employed by this species. Our study delves into the examination of fecundity and the Gonadosomatic Index (GSI) in the Pygmy Halfbeak, D. colletei (Meisner, 2001), an intriguing viviparous fish indigenous to Sarawak, Borneo. We hypothesize that the Pygmy halfbeak, D. colletei, may exhibit unique reproductive adaptations to offset its low fecundity, thus enhancing its survival and fitness. To address this, we conducted a comprehensive study utilizing 28 mature female specimens of D. colletei, carefully measuring fecundity and GSI to shed light on the reproductive adaptations of this species. Our findings reveal that D. colletei indeed exhibits low fecundity, with a mean of 16.76 ± 2.01, and a mean GSI of 12.83 ± 1.27, providing crucial insights into the reproductive mechanisms at play in this species. These results underscore the existence of unique reproductive strategies in D. colletei, enabling its adaptation and persistence in Borneo's diverse aquatic ecosystems, and call for further ecological research to elucidate these mechanisms. This study lends to a better understanding of viviparous fish in Borneo and contributes to the broader field of aquatic ecology, enhancing our knowledge of species adaptations to unique ecological challenges.
bordetella pertussis.................................ppt
Bordettela is a gram negative cocobacilli spread by air born drop let
THEMATIC APPERCEPTION TEST(TAT) cognitive abilities, creativity, and critic...
THEMATIC APPERCEPTION TEST(TAT) cognitive abilities, creativity, and critic...Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan,kP,Pakistan
hematic appreciation test is a psychological assessment tool used to measure an individual's appreciation and understanding of specific themes or topics. This test helps to evaluate an individual's ability to connect different ideas and concepts within a given theme, as well as their overall comprehension and interpretation skills. The results of the test can provide valuable insights into an individual's cognitive abilities, creativity, and critical thinking skillsThe binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defects
Assuming spherical symmetry and weak field, it is shown that if one solves the Poisson equation or the Einstein field
equations sourced by a topological defect, i.e. a singularity of a very specific form, the result is a localized gravitational
field capable of driving flat rotation (i.e. Keplerian circular orbits at a constant speed for all radii) of test masses on a thin
spherical shell without any underlying mass. Moreover, a large-scale structure which exploits this solution by assembling
concentrically a number of such topological defects can establish a flat stellar or galactic rotation curve, and can also deflect
light in the same manner as an equipotential (isothermal) sphere. Thus, the need for dark matter or modified gravity theory is
mitigated, at least in part.
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EWOCS-I: The catalog of X-ray sources in Westerlund 1 from the Extended Weste...
Context. With a mass exceeding several 104 M⊙ and a rich and dense population of massive stars, supermassive young star clusters
represent the most massive star-forming environment that is dominated by the feedback from massive stars and gravitational interactions
among stars.
Aims. In this paper we present the Extended Westerlund 1 and 2 Open Clusters Survey (EWOCS) project, which aims to investigate
the influence of the starburst environment on the formation of stars and planets, and on the evolution of both low and high mass stars.
The primary targets of this project are Westerlund 1 and 2, the closest supermassive star clusters to the Sun.
Methods. The project is based primarily on recent observations conducted with the Chandra and JWST observatories. Specifically,
the Chandra survey of Westerlund 1 consists of 36 new ACIS-I observations, nearly co-pointed, for a total exposure time of 1 Msec.
Additionally, we included 8 archival Chandra/ACIS-S observations. This paper presents the resulting catalog of X-ray sources within
and around Westerlund 1. Sources were detected by combining various existing methods, and photon extraction and source validation
were carried out using the ACIS-Extract software.
Results. The EWOCS X-ray catalog comprises 5963 validated sources out of the 9420 initially provided to ACIS-Extract, reaching a
photon flux threshold of approximately 2 × 10−8 photons cm−2
s
−1
. The X-ray sources exhibit a highly concentrated spatial distribution,
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massive stars of the cluster, and we have collected over 71 000 photons from the magnetar CXO J164710.20-455217.
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dtubbenhauer@gmail.com
Corrected slides: dtubbenhauer.com/talks.html
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