The document discusses security dynamics in the Arctic as global warming melts Arctic ice. It notes that with increased access to shipping routes and natural resources, countries are asserting claims in the region. Specifically, Russia planted a flag at the North Pole, Canada is taking a tough stance, and the US wants to play a role. Key factors include established international rules on maritime borders, significant undiscovered oil and gas estimates, and newly accessible shipping lanes. While economic interests and cooperation organizations help stability, risks include ambiguous communication, suppressed security dialogue, environmental disasters, and tensions over resource regulation. Maintaining operational cooperation and prevention capabilities can help address these risks.

1. SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE ARCTIC
Rear Admiral Nils Wang
Royal Danish Defence College

2. PUBLIC PERCEPTION
COVER
Arctic: Fight for the Top Of the
World (Cover Story / The Well)
As global warming melts the Arctic
ice, dreams of a short sea passage to
Asia-and riches beneath the surface
have been revived. With Russia
planting a flag on the ocean floor at
the North Pole, Canada talking tough
and Washington wanting to be a
player, who will win the world's
new Great Game?
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3. THE UNCLOS RULES
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4. BORDER LINES AND
CLAIMS IN THE ARCTIC
Source:
Durham University

5. UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS
97% INSIDE EEZs
Figure 1: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered
Oil" in Arctic Circle
Source: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the
Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.
Figure 2: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated
Undiscovered Gas" in Arctic Circle
Source: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in
15-11-2011
the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.
6

6. NEW SHIPPING ROUTES
Ice extension – as of
February

7. THE ARCTIC CONTEXT
”THE ARCTIC FIVE”
The Ilulissat Declaration:
MAY 2008
• Cooperation and Dialog
• Common Arctic Responsibility
• Disputes => International rules ”The Arctic Council should not deal with matters
related to military security”.
Footnote from the Ottawa Declaration 1996

8. NORWAY
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1996
The treaty on maritime delimitation
between Norway and Russia 2011
Strategy for the
High North
(2006)
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9. RUSSIA
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1997
The treaty on maritime delimitation
between Norway and Russia 2011
Arctic Strategy (2008)
National Interests AP: Russia plans to establish
a) Strategic ressource base an Arctic brigade on the
border to Norway already in
b) Peace and cooperation
2011.
c) Conservation of eco-systems
Photo: Trude Pettersen
d) Use Northern Sea Route as
national transportation system
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10. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: ?
National Security Presidential Directive and
Homeland Security Presidential
Directive
It is the Arctic Policy of the United States to:
• Meet national security and homeland
security;
• Protect the Arcticenvironment;
• Ensuresustainability
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January 9, 2009

11. CANADA
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 2003
?
Hans Island
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12. KINGDOM OF DENMARK
UNCLOS RATTIFICATION: 2004
17 billion barrels
31 billion barrels
Kuupik:
Grundlov
er ikke
løsrivelse
15-11-2011
K. O. Berthelsen Li Keqiang
13

13. REE OUTSIDE CHINA
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14. THE GLOBAL NEED FOR RESSOURCES
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15. CONCLUSIONS
STABILISING FACTORS
• ECONOMICICAL INTERESTS
• ILULISSAT DECLARATION
• ARCTIC COUNSIL
• NORTH ATLANTIC COAST GUARD FORUM
OPERATIONAL COOPERATION RISK FACTORS
• AMBIGUOUS COMMUNICATION
• SUPPRESSION OF SECURITY DIALOGUE
• ENVIRONMENTAL DISASASTER REGULATION OF RESSOURCES
• ECO ACTIVISM/TERRORISM
• ”COD WARS”
• NATO/EU/CHINA/?
• GREENLANDIC ”BREAK AWAY”?
THE JOKER
FUTURE US-CHINA RELATIONS
PREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE
CAPABILITY