The document discusses scenarios for the evolution of the political crisis in Egypt following the Arab Spring protests in 2011. Scenario 2 occurred, where the dominant classes and military, backed by the US and EU, failed to overcome Egypt's economic and social crisis. This led to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and election of Mursi as president. However, Mursi also failed to solve the crisis and was removed by the military in 2013 in another popular revolution, with the army taking control. The military intervention could lead to either political progress or a military dictatorship.

1. 1
ARAB SPRING TO DICTATORSHIP IN EGYPT?
Fernando Alcoforado *
On 17/02/2011, we published in Blog Falcoforado (http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net)
article Cenários futuros de evolução da crise no Egito (2) (Future scenarios of
evolution of the crisis in Egypt (2)) on which it was traced the evolution of the crisis
scenarios described below:
Scenario 1: Classes dominant, Army and United States / European Union unified around
the goal of keeping the Egyptian state under its control are successful in overcoming the
economic and social crisis. Social Movements unified in the struggle for control of the
Egyptian state obtained important concessions to the deployment of representative
democracy in Egypt and the achievement of progress in economic and social plans. In
this scenario, the political process would not be radicalized.
Scenario 2: Classes dominant, Army and United States / European Union unified around
the goal of keeping the Egyptian state under their control are not successful in
overcoming the economic and social crisis. Social movements would increase the
unified struggle for control of the Egyptian state for the establishment of representative
democracy in Egypt and the realization of important social and economic changes. This
scenario could also lead to setbacks if an Islamic movement emerges to take control of
the state repeating the 1979 Iranian Revolution or the armed forces prevent a transition,
albeit troubled, for democracy. Could also happen as the political advances occurred in
modern Turkey, where the military would act to contain Islamic radicalism within a
constitutional model.
Scenario 3: Classes dominant, Army and United States / European Union unified around
the goal of keeping the Egyptian state under its control are successful in overcoming the
economic and social crisis. Social Movements divided among them in the fight for
control of the Egyptian state obtained limited concessions in the implantation of
representative democracy in Egypt and the achievement of progress in economic and
social plans. In this scenario, the political process would not be radicalized.
Scenario 4: Classes dominant, Army and United States / European Union unified around
the goal of keeping the Egyptian state under their control are not successful in
overcoming the economic and social crisis. Social Movements, divided initially tend to
grow and unify radicalizing the struggle for control of the Egyptian state for the
establishment of representative democracy in Egypt and the realization of important
social and economic changes. This scenario could be radicalized and turn in Scenario 2.
February 2011 until the present time, scenarios 1 and 3 did not happen because the
dominant classes, and the Army and United States / European Union unified around the
goal of keeping the Egyptian state under his control did not succeed in overcoming the
Egypt economic and social crisis. After the fall of the Mubarak regime prevailed
Scenario 4 when there was progress in the implementation of representative democracy
in the country which resulted in the election of Mohamed Mursi linked to the Muslim
Brotherhood.
During the administration of President Mursi, emerged from a powerful democratic

2. 2
revolution, Egypt was facing a serious socio-economic crisis, with 8% per year
inflation, unemployment around 15% (among youth reaches 40%) and an economy
semi paralyzed where tourism, a major source of foreign exchange, accounting for 10%
of GDP declined 30%. On 30 June, a crowd of 17 million Egyptians, equivalent to 35%
of the Egypt population (84 million inhabitants), demanded the ouster of President
Mursi.
Again, on July 03, approximately 30 million took to the streets across Egypt to celebrate
the fall of Mursi. Despite the assertion of some analysts that there would have been a
coup d'etat, there was actually another popular revolution in which the Army took over
the political leadership of Egypt due to the government's failure Mursi. Mursi and the
Muslim Brotherhood have been removed from power after 12 months also because they
believed that 51.7% of votes cast in the second round in 2012 offered them safe passage
to transform Egypt into an Islamic country.
After the fall of Mursi, the opposition parties to the government, grouped in the
National Salvation Front, gave explicit support to the army so that it took power and
organized the "transition" towards democratic elections in six months. The four points
were unificavam all opposition: 1) Immediate Mursi resignation, 2) transitional
government with elections in at least six months; 3) Economic measures in favor of the
masses, and, 4) Suspension of the current Constitution and drafting a new one.
It appears, therefore, that Egypt has evolved from Scenario 4 to Scenario 2. We stated in
February 2011 that this scenario could also lead to setbacks if an Islamist movement
arose as with the Muslim Brotherhood who tried to control the state repeating the 1979
Iranian Revolution or the military tried to prevent a transition, albeit troubled, for
democracy. To contain the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and enforce their interests,
the army intervened. The military intervention in Egypt could lead to political progress
as occurred in modern Turkey or setbacks with the establishment of a military
dictatorship.
* Alcoforado, Fernando, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the
University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning,
regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,
1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do
desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,
http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel,
São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era
Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora,
Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) and Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), among others.