This position paper of the SIL Platform (www.nen.nl) indicates that it is common practice to operate process plants at maximum performance, optimum capacity and minimum risk levels. A Safety Integrity Level (SIL) is often determined through e.g. a Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) [1] [2]
[3], which is a means to quantify risks. However, LOPA is usually not the starting point for quantifying risks. This is often done with the use of a Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM). Contrary to LOPA and SIL, the use and type of RAM is not clearly pre-scribed or defined.
The intention of this guide is to provide guidance on RAM and show the relations between RAM, LOPA and SIL levels. What are the pitfalls? What is usually applied? What is often missed? It is not the intention to explain in detail the various available risk assessment techniques.
How to arrive at a SIL level in the correct manner leading to a qualitatively proper design and implementation is described in the EN-IEC 61511 standard [4]. Achieving a SIL requires amongst other aspects:
Correct identification of Safety Instrumented Functions (SIF)
Correct determination of required SIL rating of the various SIFs.
This guide strives to improve this quality by improving the quality of the risk assessment(s) providing input to the SIL determination. The targeted audience of this guide is the Dutch Process Industry Sector.
Substation earthing system design optimisation through the application of qua...Power System Operation
Introduction
A new safety paradigm is evolving, driven by Work
Health & Safety legislation and the explicit requirement
to demonstrate due diligence in managing risk
imposed upon staff and the public. Power system
asset owners are increasingly being required to
demonstrate compliance with the ISO 31000 risk
management standard, which requires reduction
of residual risk to as low as reasonably practicable
(ALARP). Thus, standards committees and asset
owners alike are being required to redevelop existing
This position paper of the SIL Platform (www.nen.nl) indicates that it is common practice to operate process plants at maximum performance, optimum capacity and minimum risk levels. A Safety Integrity Level (SIL) is often determined through e.g. a Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) [1] [2]
[3], which is a means to quantify risks. However, LOPA is usually not the starting point for quantifying risks. This is often done with the use of a Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM). Contrary to LOPA and SIL, the use and type of RAM is not clearly pre-scribed or defined.
The intention of this guide is to provide guidance on RAM and show the relations between RAM, LOPA and SIL levels. What are the pitfalls? What is usually applied? What is often missed? It is not the intention to explain in detail the various available risk assessment techniques.
How to arrive at a SIL level in the correct manner leading to a qualitatively proper design and implementation is described in the EN-IEC 61511 standard [4]. Achieving a SIL requires amongst other aspects:
Correct identification of Safety Instrumented Functions (SIF)
Correct determination of required SIL rating of the various SIFs.
This guide strives to improve this quality by improving the quality of the risk assessment(s) providing input to the SIL determination. The targeted audience of this guide is the Dutch Process Industry Sector.
Substation earthing system design optimisation through the application of qua...Power System Operation
Introduction
A new safety paradigm is evolving, driven by Work
Health & Safety legislation and the explicit requirement
to demonstrate due diligence in managing risk
imposed upon staff and the public. Power system
asset owners are increasingly being required to
demonstrate compliance with the ISO 31000 risk
management standard, which requires reduction
of residual risk to as low as reasonably practicable
(ALARP). Thus, standards committees and asset
owners alike are being required to redevelop existing
Risk and Procurement ManagementDr Paul BaguleyClass Slides.docxlillie234567
Risk and Procurement Management
Dr Paul Baguley
Class Slides
Contents
Definition of Risk
Context of Projects
Risk Management Process
Risk Id
Risk Assessment
Risk Evaluation
Cost Risk
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Management Reserve and Contingency
Risk Management by Procurement
Examples of Contracts to Manage Risk
Learning Objectives
Define Project Risk and identify stages of project risk management
Understand Risk Response Strategy Selection process using risk matrix
Identify characteristics of procurement routes and map risk allocation amongst project stakeholders
Appreciate a more risk informed procurement route selection
What makes project management a risky business
Organisations take risks to compete through projects making projects risky
Indeed risk appetite is the term used to describe the amount of risk an organisation is willing to take
And risk tolerance is the amount of risk an organisation can absorb
Risk is an important subject in APM BoK7 and PMBoK Guide (Chapter 11)
Institute of risk management; the Orange Book from the UK Gov
Communication between stakeholders in the project, suppliers and customer
VUCA (Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity) environment
Risks in Projects
https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/top-50-projects-sydney-opera-house-11757
Lack of process and
Large budget over run
Safety regulations
O Ring
Safety disaster
Case: impact of culture on risk
The Nimrod Accident
Case: the conspiracy of optimism
Optimism bias is a known phenomenon which has been described as a psychological factor in estimators. In the defence industry it is recognised there is political pressure for projects to deliver more and cost less.
Activity: What projects do you know failed?
What projects do you know from your own experience which failed in some way and how did they fail? For example “Potters Bar safety disaster”
Definition of Risk and Uncertainty
Before ISO 31000 a working definition of risk was an event that may or may not happen
Uncertainty is variation in something that has happened
For example a machine breakdown may or may not happen
Schedule delay is variation in the delay schedule in terms of time
Risk is defined as an uncertain event or set of circumstances, that should it occur, will have an effect on achievement of one or more objectives, by APM Body of Knowledge 2012
ISO 31000 (2018) definition of risk
ISO 31000 defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on project objectives
Note 1 to entry: an effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive, negative or both, and can address, create or result in opportunities and threats
Note 2 to entry: Objectives can have different aspects and categories, and can be applied at different levels
Note 3 to entry: Risk is usually expressed in terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihood
Project objectives are influenced by the iron triangle and trade-off space between cost, quality and time
This means that cost ris.
System shock analysis and complex network effectsKimmo Soramaki
Joint presentation with Michelle Tuveson and Dr Andrew Coburn from Cambridge Risk Center at the Conference Board Global Risk Conference in New York, 8 May 2013.
Links to conference website: http://www.conference-board.org/conferences/conferencedetail.cfm?conferenceid=2456
This Presentation Uses Two Case Studies
to Show How Risk Can Be Used as a
Discriminant in Decision Making for Key
Decisions, in:
Key
Areas of a Corporation,
Selecting
Alternatives,
Evaluating
Projects
In the second Case Study, a method that
eliminates the pitfalls of NPV is presented.
CDA / ESM eliminates the pitfalls of NPV, an obsolete
financial concept still used by many.
The evaluation of a project with CDA/ESM includes:
the
annual risks potentially afflicting the project,
construction
risks,
risks
of malfunctioning, and possibly also the
demolition/
reclamation costs.
One the most important problem in the chemical, oil&gas or nuclear Industry is the Risk Assessment evaluation. In the theoretical studies, the part of risk analysis is sometimes not considered because the case of study is not real or it hasn't been still industrialized. In the real industry there are different processes for industrializing a product. The HAZOP technique is one example of Risk assessment tecniques. For further information go to: http://www.cholarisk.com/
This presentation was delivered by Bell Energy as part of training program in 2013. It provides the reader, basic to intermediate level of information on the use of Bowties for managing Hazards & Effects. Bowties can be used by any industry whether they are Oil & Gas, Finance, Banks, Aviation, Power, Nuclear, Construction, Infrastructure. To know more about bowties, please visit www.bell-energy.com or contact us on uaeoffice@bell-energy.net
Risk and Procurement ManagementDr Paul BaguleyClass Slides.docxlillie234567
Risk and Procurement Management
Dr Paul Baguley
Class Slides
Contents
Definition of Risk
Context of Projects
Risk Management Process
Risk Id
Risk Assessment
Risk Evaluation
Cost Risk
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Management Reserve and Contingency
Risk Management by Procurement
Examples of Contracts to Manage Risk
Learning Objectives
Define Project Risk and identify stages of project risk management
Understand Risk Response Strategy Selection process using risk matrix
Identify characteristics of procurement routes and map risk allocation amongst project stakeholders
Appreciate a more risk informed procurement route selection
What makes project management a risky business
Organisations take risks to compete through projects making projects risky
Indeed risk appetite is the term used to describe the amount of risk an organisation is willing to take
And risk tolerance is the amount of risk an organisation can absorb
Risk is an important subject in APM BoK7 and PMBoK Guide (Chapter 11)
Institute of risk management; the Orange Book from the UK Gov
Communication between stakeholders in the project, suppliers and customer
VUCA (Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity) environment
Risks in Projects
https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/top-50-projects-sydney-opera-house-11757
Lack of process and
Large budget over run
Safety regulations
O Ring
Safety disaster
Case: impact of culture on risk
The Nimrod Accident
Case: the conspiracy of optimism
Optimism bias is a known phenomenon which has been described as a psychological factor in estimators. In the defence industry it is recognised there is political pressure for projects to deliver more and cost less.
Activity: What projects do you know failed?
What projects do you know from your own experience which failed in some way and how did they fail? For example “Potters Bar safety disaster”
Definition of Risk and Uncertainty
Before ISO 31000 a working definition of risk was an event that may or may not happen
Uncertainty is variation in something that has happened
For example a machine breakdown may or may not happen
Schedule delay is variation in the delay schedule in terms of time
Risk is defined as an uncertain event or set of circumstances, that should it occur, will have an effect on achievement of one or more objectives, by APM Body of Knowledge 2012
ISO 31000 (2018) definition of risk
ISO 31000 defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on project objectives
Note 1 to entry: an effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive, negative or both, and can address, create or result in opportunities and threats
Note 2 to entry: Objectives can have different aspects and categories, and can be applied at different levels
Note 3 to entry: Risk is usually expressed in terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihood
Project objectives are influenced by the iron triangle and trade-off space between cost, quality and time
This means that cost ris.
System shock analysis and complex network effectsKimmo Soramaki
Joint presentation with Michelle Tuveson and Dr Andrew Coburn from Cambridge Risk Center at the Conference Board Global Risk Conference in New York, 8 May 2013.
Links to conference website: http://www.conference-board.org/conferences/conferencedetail.cfm?conferenceid=2456
This Presentation Uses Two Case Studies
to Show How Risk Can Be Used as a
Discriminant in Decision Making for Key
Decisions, in:
Key
Areas of a Corporation,
Selecting
Alternatives,
Evaluating
Projects
In the second Case Study, a method that
eliminates the pitfalls of NPV is presented.
CDA / ESM eliminates the pitfalls of NPV, an obsolete
financial concept still used by many.
The evaluation of a project with CDA/ESM includes:
the
annual risks potentially afflicting the project,
construction
risks,
risks
of malfunctioning, and possibly also the
demolition/
reclamation costs.
One the most important problem in the chemical, oil&gas or nuclear Industry is the Risk Assessment evaluation. In the theoretical studies, the part of risk analysis is sometimes not considered because the case of study is not real or it hasn't been still industrialized. In the real industry there are different processes for industrializing a product. The HAZOP technique is one example of Risk assessment tecniques. For further information go to: http://www.cholarisk.com/
This presentation was delivered by Bell Energy as part of training program in 2013. It provides the reader, basic to intermediate level of information on the use of Bowties for managing Hazards & Effects. Bowties can be used by any industry whether they are Oil & Gas, Finance, Banks, Aviation, Power, Nuclear, Construction, Infrastructure. To know more about bowties, please visit www.bell-energy.com or contact us on uaeoffice@bell-energy.net
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29. What constitutes “acceptable risk”?
The phrase “acceptable risk” is widely used in Quantitative Risk Assessment
(QRA) literature
Individuals may “accept” risk of an activity on a voluntary basis if they deem it is low enough and if
they derive a benefit from it
When a risk from an activity is imposed on an individual on an involuntary basis and there are no
perceived benefits to the individual, then no risk would be considered truly “acceptable” no matter
how small
48. Conclusions
The risks posed by hazardous industrial facilities are controlled by safety
legislation: it is required that all hazards are identified, the risks arising are
assessed and controls put in place to minimize the likelihood of an accident.
Explicit, well-defined risk criteria, defined as part of risk assessment activities,
add to the clarity of the decision-making process.
Communication of risk information can be difficult. Accepted risk criteria should
make such communications easier and more effective. Visualization of these
risks aids understanding.
Make sure the public understands the risks being communicated.