Analysis of housing sales data on ZIP 78704 in Austin, Texas.

1. Analysis of Residence Sales Data by Form
ZIP Code 78704
Paul Schumann

2. Data Variables (2015)
● Form (Condo, Single Family, Duplex,
Townhouse)
● Address
● MLS#
● Price
● Square Feet
● Price per Square Foot
● Year Built

3. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 3
Summary
● Data provided by Ed Wendler Jr.
● Analysis by Paul Schumann using:
– Watson Analytics*
– Open Calc
● Price is a function of year built.
● Average price for condos, duplexes and townhouses are almost the same,
and lower than single family.
– However, averages are misleading.
– Price is a function of year built, but also a function of size of the residence.
● Price is exponentially related to size of residence for all forms, with a lower
limit of ~$200K.
* www.ibm.com/analytics/watson-analytics/us-en/

4. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 4
Summary (continued)
● Price is increasing for all forms built after 1960.
● Size of residence is increasing with year built and there is little differentiation
in size by form for modern construction.
● Price per square foot is also and function of time built, form and size of
residence.
● Average price per square foot is essentially the same for condos, duplexes
and townhouses and higher for single family residences.
– However, averages are misleading because of the dependence on size of
residence.
● For residences priced lower than $400K:
– Price and price per square foot are strongly related to year built and size of
residence.
– Condos built in the 1960s and 1970s are now selling for less (and less per
square foot) than townhouses and duplexes, modern condos, duplexes and
townhouses are all selling for nearly the same price and price per square foot.

5. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 5
Conclusions
● Given the existing market conditions in 78704 together with contextual
factors such as transportation and prevailing construction costs, standards
and technology, affordability cannot be practically achieved through density
increases using newly constructed condos, duplexes and townhouses
(without financial incentives).
Size
(square
feet)
Price* Income
Required**
Percent of
Median
Income***
1,000 $350,000 $108,000 169%
857 $300,000 $92,000 144%
714 $250,000 $77,000 120%
571 $200,000 $61,000 95%
429 $150,000 $46,000 72%
* Based on average price per
square foot currently ($350) for
residences less than $400,000
** Calculator.net, using
approximately payments equal to
30% of income, 2.4% IR, 30 year,
10% down payment, no other
debt
*** Using median income of
$64,000
Reference: http://www.calculator.net/house-
affordability-calculator.html
Note: Price per square foot is probably not a constant over this range of sizes. It will probably increase for smaller sizes.

6. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 6
Conclusions (continued)
● Price per square foot is a function of year built
(age), form (single family, condo,duplex,
townhouse), and size (square feet)
● Price is a function of price per square foot, size
(square feet) and year built (age).

7. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 7
Recommendations
● Perform this type of analysis on enough ZIP codes in Austin to satisfy
statistical significance
● Investigate and recommend financial incentive programs
– Developer
– Residence owner
– Residence buyer
● Investigate and recommend actions to utilize existing residences that have
aged
● Investigate and recommend new construction practices, standards and
technologies to lower cost per square foot
– Manufactured
– Modular
– Kit
– Volunteered construction

8. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 8
Recommendations (continued)
● Investigate and recommend polices and standards for mini homes (tiny,
micro, small) and mini home villages(with and without shared services).
● Develop analytic relationships between variables, and multi dimensional
displays of data.

9. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 9
Price Analysis (1882 - 2015)
Note: All the graphs appearing in this form came from Watson Analytics. I had to
darken the background to make the numbers visible.

10. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 10
Price (1882 - 2015)
<$200K
$200K- $400K
$400K-$600K
$600K-$800K
$800K-$1M
$1M-$1.2M
$1.2M-$1.4M
$1.4M-$1.6M
$1.6M-$1.8M
$1.8M-$2M
$2M-$2.2M
$2.2M-$2.4M
$2.4M-$2.6M
$2.6M-$2.8M
$2.8M-$3M
>$3M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
78704
SF
Townhouse
Duplex
Condo
Price
NumberofHouses
1,740
1,727
2,325
1,054

11. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 11
Condo Price (1960 - 2015)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Condo
Price
Linear (Price)
Price Predict
Price Cal
Year Built
Price

12. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 12
Duplex Price (1960 - 2015)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
Duplex
Price
Price Cal
Linear (Price Cal)
Price Predict
Year
Price

13. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 13
All Forms (< $2M)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
f(x) = 216954.09 exp( 0 x )
78704
Square Feet
Price

14. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 14
Price and Square Feet by Form

15. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 15
All Forms (<= $400K)
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
78704
Condo
SF
Duplex
Townhouse
Square Feet
Price

16. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 16
Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015)

17. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 17
Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015)
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
78704
SF
Townhouse
Condo
Duplex
Price per Sq Ft
NumberofHouses

18. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 18
All Forms (1882 - 2015)
Form Price (average) Price/Sq Ft (average)
Condo $369K $350
Duplex $561K $324
SF $1,045K $466
Townhouse $549K $318

19. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 19
Condo (1960 - 2015)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
Condo
$/Ft.
Linear ($/Ft.)
$/Ft Predict
$/Ft Cal
Year
PriceperSq.Ft.

20. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 20
Duplex (1960-2015)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Duplex
Sq. Ft.
Linear (Sq. Ft.)
$/Ft Cal
$/Ft Predict
Year
PriceperSqFt

21. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 21
Low Price (<$400K) and Year Built
by Form

22. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 22
Low Price Square Feet and Year
Built by Form

23. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 23
Low Price per Square Foot and
Square Feet by Year Built

24. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 24
Low Price per Square Foot vs.
Square Feet
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
78704
Low Priced
$/Ft.
Linear ($/Ft.)
Square Feet
PriceperSquareFoot

25. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 25
Low Price per Square Feet and
Square Feet by Form
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
78704
Low Priced
Condo
Duplex
SF
Townhouse
Square Feet
PriceperSquareFoot

26. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 26
Low Price Square Feet by Decade
Built
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
78704
Low Priced
Decade
SquareFeet(Avg)

27. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 27
Low Price Price per Square Foot by
Decade Built
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
78704
Low Priced
Decade
PriceperSquareFoot(Avg)