Alex von Stempel : Cool Logistics presentation at ICEE 2019
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Demography - food e-commerce and global cold chain in focus in China
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Alex von Stempel : Cool Logistics presentation at ICEE 2019
- 3. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com CHALLENGES FOR PERISHABLES • Demographic shifts • Generational imbalance • Disruption of traditional retail models • Geographical shifts in purchasing power and technology-driven changes of purchasing habits • TRADE INSECURITY: DE- GLOBALISATION THE AGE OF THE NEWS FEED
- 5. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com • 28 % of Japan's population 65 + • 21% Germany; 15% US; 6% India • Japan: Highest life expectancy: 84 years • Japan: 400,000 more deaths than births (Source: The Economist) • People aged 60+ will outnumber 10 - to 24-year-olds in 2050 • Europe oldest of all • UK bucks the trend: 81 mill by 2070 ** New births in China fell to 15.23 mill. in 2018, compared to 17.23 mill. in 2017 (Source: China Daily, The Economist United Nations Report) AGEING POPULATION JAPAN AND THE OTHERS
- 6. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com • Old-age dependency ratio above world average trend are: China, Vietnam and Malaysia • Higher risk in countries with low purchasing power; few savings • Changes in traditional social cohesion • Great winners of the redistribution of global wealth = Asian poor and middle classes; the great losers = the lower middle classes of the rich world’ (Milan Brankovic) SOCIAL SHIFTS
- 7. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com • China: the world’s largest robot maker - 137,000 Industrial robots in 2017 • Service robots: medical robots, robotic milking; logistics robots in warehouses etc. • Robots to feed ‘Grandma’: • MySpoon: Japanese feeding robot for the elderly • Labour-driven shifts of global supply chains from China to Africa ** But: Machine learning limits AUTOMATION: DESTINY
- 9. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com • Chinese meat consumption: 4kg in 1961; 62kg in 2013 • Chinese pork consumption flat since 2014 (after massive rise 2009-2013 rise) • China overtook Brazil as the world’s second beef market after the US • Dairy consumption rising fourfold 2009-2013 • BUT: Decline of demand for pork and long term impact of population decline V FOOD TRENDS
- 11. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com IMPACT ON LOGISTICS AND COLDCHAIN • Need for smaller refrigerated packsizes • Customised deliveries and more frequent deliveries • Innovative mobile solutions for re- stocking and temperature controlled delivery methods • Shorter travelling distances • Automation of coldstores Order Picking / route optimisation/ multichannel • Machine learning: Productivity = ‘Predictivity’ FEAR OF STOCK OUT
- 12. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com • Last mile complexity • ‘Distribution of one’ • Warehouse job migration towards last mile jobs • Food delivery: last mile opportunities • Amazon’s shipping costs rising • Amazon now ships more using in-house Amazon logistics • Logistics as a ‘loss leader’ (bridging marketing, data collection + distribution) LAST MILE DELIVERY E-COMMERCE: ON AND OFF LINE Ø Jeff Bezos: Amazon is not a retailer. It’s a technology
- 13. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com Ø Big protein health warning: Environmental impact of increased beef demand in China: beef production needs 3 times more animal feed and produces 5 times more greenhouse gases Ø Chicken consumption rising • Horses for courses J • Frozen food less risky and cheaper to predict, store, ship and produce • Semi-automated meat processing plants (Kerry-Sutherland MeatLab JV) • Rising number of fridge/freezer owners in Asia • Global fresh food trade : high risk and marginal returns for fresh produce and limited appeal for fresh seafood • Japan: ‘Social gifts’ for the boss vs vs + +
- 15. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com GLOBAL WASTE MANAGEMENT • China: Waste Import ban since January 1 2018 • Before that 32 million tonnes of rubbish / year half of which destined for China • David Attenborough: Blue Planet TV series • Other countries are following: Malaysia/Philippines/ Indonesia: rejection of contaminated waste from the West WHAT NOW?
- 16. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com THE DARK SECRET OF E-COMMERCE: ....WASTE ACCUMULATION • Buying more than necessary • Delivery windows + Chaos theory • Reverse food logistics ??? • The great packaging head-ache Ø World Bank predicts waste increase by 70% by 2050
- 18. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com GLOBAL COLD CHAIN LOGISTICS INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS • Merging of equipment management tools and telematics (smart devices) • Horizontal and vertical interoperability of track and race • Smart sensor devices to monitor cargo across ocean, air, and ground transportation at all times • Block chain : a solution in search of a problem? Waste reduction? • Eradicating cold chain inefficiencies • Fresh produce: Post-harvest - Field-heat removal - Containerising in orchard - CA containers • Seafood: - freezing at sea - sea to sea transfer into containers • Monitoring and minimising the impact of for power-offs (ports/terminals)
- 19. Cool strategies for core markets www.coollogisticsresources.com SHIPPING TRENDS AND CONCEPTS • Dedicated product carriers • Demise of conventional ships • Co-existence of old-type and new types of shipping (IMO 2020) • Intelligent reefer containers using intelligent packaging • Multi-compartment reefer containers • Multimodal reefer logistics operators (viz tank container operators) SHIPPING FUTURE ? • Driverless shipping • Shipboard cold stores • Drone carriers