Alameda County Budget Workgroup Forum (February 2011)

County Administrator’s Office

ALAMEDA COUNTY
Economic and Budget Forum
The Worst Is Yet to Come
February 2011
Supervisor Keith Carson,Chair,Budget Workgroup
Supervisor
S per isor Wilma Chan
Supervisor Scott Haggerty
Susan S Muranishi County Administrator
S. Muranishi,


Overview
Economic Update
FY 10‐11 Final Budget
g
State and Federal Budgets

2


Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate – 1990 to Present
(not seasonally adjusted)


Alameda County Unemployment
y p y
by City/ Unincorporated Area
18%
16.3%
16% 15.6%

14%

12%

10%

7.8%
8%

6%
4.7%

4%

6


Alameda County Median Home Values
July 2007 – Dec. 2010
650,000
650 000
619,000
600,000

550,000

500,000

450,000

400,000
400 000

350,000
347,000
300,000
280,000
250,000

200,000

7


Alameda County
Property Foreclosures
9,000
,

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000
4 000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

8

Source: Alameda County Clerk/Recorder’s Office


Assessment Roll—Percent Change
Assessment Roll Percent Change
Alameda County
18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

‐2%

‐4%

9


Sales Tax Revenues
15,000,000

14,000,000

13,000,000

12,000,000

11,000,000

10,000,000
10
2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11


Prop. 172 Sales Tax Revenues
$125,000,000
$125 000 000

$120,000,000

$115,000,000

$110,000,000

$105,000,000

$100,000,000

$95,000,000
11
2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11


Measure A Revenues—County Share
$30,000,000
$30 000 000

$28,000,000

$26,000,000

$24,000,000

$22,000,000 12

2005‐2006 2006‐2007 2007‐2008 2008‐2009 2009‐2010 2010‐2011


Realignment Revenues
210,000,000

200,000,000

190,000,000

180,000,000

170,000,000

160,000,000
2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11
13


Quarterly Interest Rate for
Investment Pool
6%
5.0%
5%

4%

3%

2%

1%
0.5%

0%

14


Increased Demand for Services

Dramatic increase in caseloads for assistance
programs, including:
CalWORKs
Food Stamps
Medi‐Cal
IHSS

15


CalWORKS
21,000
21 000
20,494
20,500

20,000

19,500

19,000

18,500

18,000

17,500

17,000

16,500
16,520
16,000

16


Medi-Cal
85,000

80,625
80,000

75,000

70,000

65,000

60,968
60,000

17


Food Stamps
43,500
,
40,435
38,500

33,500

28,500

23,500

18,500

13,500

8,569
8,500

18


General Assistance
11,000
11 000

10,000

9,000
9 000

8,000

7,000
,
6,240
6,000

5,000

4,000
3,622

3,000

19


InHome Support Services
19,000 18,450

18,000

17,000

16,000

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000
12 000

12,237
11,000

10,000

20


Economic Outlook
Very slow recovery
Unemployment still high
Unemployment still high
Home values way off peak
Demand for services high
Demand for services high
Revenues down

21


FY 2010 2011 Fi l B d

22


ERAF Losses by Year (in millions)
ERAF Losses by Year (in millions)
Cumulative loss: $4 Billion
$350
$350 $335
$320 $326 $320

$297
$300
$273
$263
$250 $236
$220
$206
$200 $187
$170
$158
$150 $140 $147
$129 $130 $135

$100

$50 $30

$0

24


Funding Gaps Since ERAF Intercept
F di G Si ERAF I t t
(in millions)

25


Alameda C
Al d County P
Property T Di ib i
Tax Distribution
Of Each Dollar of Property Tax Collected:

26



Appropriation/ F.T.E.
Revenue Positions*
All Funds $2.4 Billion 9,103

General/Grants/ $2.1 Billion 7,287
Measure A Fund

*Full‐time equivalent positions 27


FY 2010 11 Final Budget
General/Grant/Measure A Funds
Appropriation by Program
General
Health Care Government Capital Projects
Services 10% 1%
27%

Non Program
Expenditures Public Assistance
3% 32%

Public Protection Contingency &
25% Reserves
2%

Total Appropriation: $2.1 billion 28


Appropriation by Major Object
Other Salaries &
Financing Uses Benefits
Other Charges 4% 39%
21%

Fixed Assets
1%
Services &
Supplies
35%

Total Appropriation: $2.1 billion 29


Total Financing by Source

Other Financing
Current Property Tax Sources
14% 6%

Other Taxes
8%

Other Revenue State/Federal/Local
3% Govt. Aid
Charges for Services 54%
15%

Total Financing: $2.1 billion 30


FY 2010‐11 Discretionary Revenue
Share of Total General Fund

EPSDT Capital Discretionary
Designation Designation Revenue
1% 0% 26%
Use of FMR
U f FMR
3%

Debt Service
Revenue
Program Revenue 2%
68%

Total General Fund: $1.9 billion 31


FY 2010‐11 Discretionary Revenue by Source

Vehicle License Fee
(ERAF)
Other Revenue
30%
8%

Interest on
Investments
1%

Sales & Use Tax
Property Tax Sales & Use Tax 2%
58% (ERAF)
1%

Discretionary Revenue: $502.7 million 32


FY 2010‐11 Use of Discretionary Revenue
by Program

Capital Projects General
1% Government
10% Debt Service
Public Assistance 5%
13%

Health Care
Public Protection
17%
45%
Contingency &
Contingency &
Reserve Increase
9%

Discretionary Revenue: $502.7 million 33


FY 2010 11 Balancing Strategies
FY 2010‐11 Balancing Strategies
(in millions)

Countywide Fiscal Mgmt.
Strategies Reward
11% 40%

Program
/
Reductions/ EPSDT
EPSDT
Revenue Designation
41% 8%
Funding Gap: $152.4 million

34
EPSDT = Early Periodic Screening, Diagnosis and Treatment Program


FY 2010 11 Closing the Gap
FY 2010‐11 ‐ Closing the Gap
Ongoing vs. One‐Time Strategies

35


Closing the Gap
($ in millions)

Net County
Cost FTE
Reduction Reductions
General Government $22.7 16.9
Health Care Services $
$40.4 6.8
Public Assistance $30.1 +2.0
Public Protection
Public Protection $42.8 83.9
Programs $136.0 105.6
Countywide Strategies
Countywide Strategies $16.4
$16.4 0.0
Grand Total $152.4 105.6


Federal Budget Update
F d lB d U d

37


President’s FY 2011 and 2012 Budgets
FY 2011
$3.8 trillion plan proposed, not approved
House Cmte proposes $100 billion cuts, largest in history
H C $100 billi l i hi

FY 2012
FY 2012
$3.7 trillion budget proposed
$
$1.1 trillion discretionary spending
y p g
Over 200 programs to be cut or eliminated

38


Federal Budget Update
Annual Deficits
2009: $1.4 trillion
2010: $1.3 trillion
2010 $1 3 t illi
2011: $1.6 trillion
2012: $1.1 trillion
2012: $1 1 trillion

National Debt % GDP
2008: $6 trillion 40%
2010: $9 trillion 62%
2021: $18 trillion (est.)
2021 $18 illi ( ) 77%
39


State Budget Update
S B d U d

40


Governor’s Budget
$26.4 billion in solutions through 2011‐12
Cuts $12.5 billion
Revenues $12 billion
Borrowing/transfers
g/ $1.9 billion

Realignment of services
g
Special election to extend tax increases

41


Governor s Budget
Governor’s Budget
Impact to AC Social Services Programs

CalWORKS (20,500 AC recipients)
13% grant reduction ($18M cut to AC clients)
48‐month time limit ($24M impact to 4,000 families)
48 h l ($24 i 4 000 f ili )
Maintain block grant cut (ongoing AC loss $15M)
Single Allocation reduction (AC impact: $8M)

Child Care
Eliminate child care for 11 12 yr. olds (approx. 370 children)
Eliminate child care for 11‐12 yr. olds (approx. 370 children)
Decrease eligibility standards from 75% to 60% State median income
Subsidies cut ($40M impact to AC clients)

42


Governor s Budget
Governor’s Budget
Impact to AC Social Services Programs (cont.)

In Home Support Services (18,000 in AC)
Cut provider hours 8.4%
Cut domestic services in shared living environments (14,400 cases)
C d h dl (14 400 )
AC Impact: Hours of service reduced 28% (6 million hours), wage loss
to IHSS providers: $71 million.
SSI/SSP Grants (39,000 AC recipients; $7M impact)
THP+ reduced allocation (AC: $1.6M; 70 beds)
Seriously, Emotionally Disturbed funding restored
S i l E i ll Di b d f di d
Suspend County Share of Child Support collections (AC: $0.6M)

43


Governor s Budget
Governor’s Budget
Impact to AC Health Programs

Medi‐Cal (up to 100,000 AC recipients affected)
Caps on doctor visits, prescriptions, other services
Co‐payments
Caps on supplies, equipment, hearing aids, OTC drugs
Eliminate Adult Day Health Care (880 people in AC)
y ( p p )
10% reduction in provider payments
Use First Five funds for children svcs (7,200 AC children impacted)

Healthy Families (est. 20,400 AC families)
Increase premiums, co‐payments, cut vision benefit

44


Governor s Budget
Governor’s Budget
Other

Eliminate redevelopment agencies AC impact: $18M/year
Reenactment of gas tax swap to fund transportation
Suspend, defer, repeal state mandates AC impact: $11M

45


Governor s Budget
Governor’s Budget
Realignment Phase 1

Transfer low‐level offenders, parole violators
Transfer Adult parole
Transfer remaining juvenile justice programs
Transfer Court security to County sheriffs
VLF‐funded programs:
f d d
COPS, JJCPA, Juvenile Probation, Booking Fees, CalMMEt, other
Transfer fire protection and medical response in wildland
Transfer fire protection and medical response in wildland
areas

46


Governor’s Budget
G ’ B d
Realignment Phase 1 (cont.)
Mental health services, using Prop. 63 funds
Substance abuse programs
Child Welfare Services/Foster Care
Child W lf S i /F C
Adult Protective Services

47


Governor’s Budget –
G ’ B d
Realignment Phase 2
IHSS State
CA Children’s Services State
CalWORKs Counties
Child Care Counties
Food Stamps
Food Stamps Counties

48


Realignment
Alameda County General Principles

Constitutional protection that realigned programs will come
with adequate funding to cover costs

Need all or some combination of the following:
Guaranteed funding source
Guaranteed funding source
General Fund “backstop”
Maximum local control/flexibility
Ability to suspend, curtail or eliminate programs if funding is
insufficient

49


State Budget

What if ballot initiatives fail?
What if ballot initiati es fail?

50


Legislative Analyst:
Possible Cuts If Voters Reject Taxes
Schools
Eliminate K-3 class size reduction
Kindergarteners must be 5 years old
Community Colleges
90-unit cap on subsidized credits
Increase fees from $26/unit to $66/unit
Cut State subsidy for athletics
Universities
Tuition: +7% UC, +10% CSU
Personnel costs: -10% UC, -5% CSU

51


Health/Human Services
Reduce IHSS wage to minimum $300M
Cut food and aid for noncitizens $190M
Stricter income eligibility for welfare-to-work recipients $180M
Public Safety
Require 2nd, 3rd strikes be serious or violent $50M
Eliminate public safety grants $506M
Automated speed enforcement cameras $
p $150M
Two furloughs/month for court employees $130M

52


General Government
Reduce State employee pay 9.4% $700M
Reduce State employee health care 30% $330M
Transportation
Another accounting swap $400M
Oil drilling at Tranquillon Ridge $100M
New fee on residential property owners in wildlands $300M

53


Alameda County
Ongoing Budget Policies

Continue to monitor expenditures and revenues
Restrict spending
p g
Pursue revenue enhancements
Agencies & Departments directed to fill only
critical (life/safety, mandated, cost effective)
p
positions

54


Pending Factors
Economy
Retirement/medical costs
Federal budget and debt
State Budget and June election
Propositions

55


Key dates
Budget Requests Due February 18, 2011
Early Budget Work Sessions April 5, 2011
Funding Gap identified Late March/early April
Reduction plans May 2011
Proposed Budget Submitted
d d S b d Early June 2011
l 2011
Final Budget Adopted Late June 2011

56


Alameda County
Budget Information on the Web

www.acgov.org/budget.htm
www acgov org/budget htm

57


ALAMEDA COUNTY
Economic and Budget Forum
The Worst Is Yet to Come
February 2011
Supervisor Keith Carson, Chair,Budget Workgroup
Supervisor
S per isor Wilma Chan
Supervisor Scott Haggerty
Susan S Muranishi County Administrator
S. Muranishi,

Alameda County Budget Workgroup Forum (February 2011)

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