AI Defense Strategy

Asian Tiger Capital Partners, Level 16, UTC Tower, Panthapath, Dhaka-1215, Tel: (880)-2-9114286Asian Tiger Capital Partners, Celebration Point (5th floor), Plot – 03, Road – 113/A, Gulshan – 2, Dhaka-1212, Tel: (880)-2-9852111, Web: www.at-capital.com
AI Defence Strategy
Ifty Islam
Managing Partner
Asian Tiger Capital Partners LTD
Tel: +88 0173 0058920 (Dhaka) +447817932685(London)
E-mail: ifty.islam@at-capital.com ; iftyi@mac.com
Web: www.at-capital.com

AI Core Defence Objective Next Decade
• “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all humankind. Whoever becomes
the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” - Russian President Putin
• Putin’s advice is the latest sign of an intensifying race among Russia, China, and the US to
accumulate military power based on artificial intelligence. All three countries have proclaimed
intelligent machines as vital to the future of their national security. Technologies such as software
that can sift intelligence material or autonomous drones and ground vehicles are seen as ways to
magnify the power of human soldiers.
• In July, China’s State Council released a detailed strategy designed to make the country “the front-
runner and global innovation centre in AI” by 2030 that pledges to invest in R&D that will
“through AI elevate national defence strength and assure and protect national security.”
• The Pentagon has been developing a strategy known as the “Third Offset,” intended to give the
US, through weapons powered by smart software, the same sort of advantage over potential
adversaries that it once held in nuclear bombs and precision-guided weapons.
1

Rapid Rise of AI
There are four key drivers behind the rapid progress in AI technology:
• Decades of exponential growth in computing performance
• Increased availability of large datasets upon which to train machine learning
system
• Advances in the implementation of machine learning techniques
• Significant and rapidly increasing commercial investment
There are strong reasons to believe—as many senior U.S. defense and
intelligence leaders do—that rapid progress in AI is likely to impact national
security.
2

What is Artificial Intelligence (AI) ?
• AI is defined as non- human intelligence that is measured by its ability to replicate human
mental skills, such as pattern recognition, understanding natural language (NLP), adaptive
learning from experience, strategizing, or reasoning about others
3

Data – The new “Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid”
4

Some Military Applications in AI
• For example, commercially available, AI-enabled technology (such as long-range drone
package delivery) may give weak states and non-state actor’s access to a type of long-
range price- soon strike capability.
• In the cyber domain, activities that currently require lots of high-skill labor, such as
Advanced Persistent read operations, may in the future be largely automated and easily
available on the black market.
• For information superiority, AI will dramatically enhance capabilities for the collection
and analysis of data, and also the creation of data.
• In intelligence operations, this will mean that there are more sources than ever from
which to discern the truth. However, it will also be much easier to lie persuasively.
• AI-enhanced forgery of audio and video media is rapidly improving in quality and
decreasing in cost. In the future, AI-generated forgeries will challenge the basis of trust
across many institutions.
5

AI/Robotics Spending Accelerates
• Boston Consulting Group: 2000-2015, the worldwide spending on military robotics
(narrowly defined as only unmanned vehicles) tripled from $2.4 billion to $7.5 billion
and expected to double again to $16.5 billion by the year 2025.
• In the short term, advances in AI will likely allow more autonomous robotic support to
war gathers, and accelerate it from manned to unmanned combat missions.
• Top U.S. national security officials believe that AI and machine learning will have
transformative implications for cybersecurity and cyberwar.
• Admiral Mike Rogers, former Director of the National Security Agency and Commander
of U.S. Cyber command, said “Artificial Intelligence and machine learning—I would
argue—is foundational to the future of cybersecurity. We have got to work our way
through how we’re going to deal with this. It is not the if, it’s only the when to me.”
6

PC/Drone Cost Declines and Defence Implications
In the 15 years from 1998 to 2013, the
average price of a personal computer fell
by 95%. If a high-quality drone that costs
$1,000 today were available for only $50 in
the future, especially if that drone
possessed improved autonomous
capabilities, it would transform the cost
curve for all sorts of military activity. As
Paul Scharre has written, “Ultra-cheap 3D-
printed mini-drones could allow the United
States to field billions of tiny, insect-like
drones.”
7

AI Potential and its breadth
• As with all automation, AI and machine learning will decrease the number of humans needed to perform
specific tasks in the cyber domain. E.g. The advent of cyber tools dramatically increased the productivity of
individuals engaged in espionage.
• AI will be useful in bolstering cyber defense, since probing for weak- nesses and monitoring systems can be
enhanced with intelligent automation. Cyber defense is currently quite labor intensive and skilled cyber labor
is in short supply. Additionally, AI will enable new paradigms for cyber defense. Most cyber defense systems
today are based on a priori knowledge assumptions, in which the defender has optimized their system to
address known threats, and is less well protected against unknown threats.
• However, the same logic suggests AI advances will enable improvements in cyber defense. Its most
challenging type of cyber-attack, for most organizations and individuals to deal with, is the Advanced
Persistent Threat (APT). As it is a high skilled labor intensive job, it can be automated using AI capabilities.
• Lethal autonomous weapons form the bulk of military forces. AI-based pilot running on computer has
already demonstrated the ability to beat a U.S. Air Force-trained together pilot in a combat simulator.
8

AI Potential and its breadth
• Disruptive swarming technologies render some military platforms obsolete. As of
2013, e United States possessed 14,776 military aircraft , some of which cost more
than $100 million per unit.
• A high-quality quad copter UAV currently costs roughly $1,000, meaning that for
the price of a single high-end aircraft , a military could acquire one million drones.
• Imagine a low-cost drone with the range of a Canada Goose, a bird which can cover
1,500 miles in under 24 hours at an average speed of 60 miles per hour.41 How
would an aircraft carrier battle group respond to an attack from millions of aerial
kamikaze explosive drones
9

Technology Changing Defence Dynamics
• Mobile-robotic-IEDs give low-cost, PGM-like capabilities to terrorists. Improvised Explosive
Devices (IED) posed a significant challenge to U.S. forces in Iraq because they were low-cost,
easily manufactured, and could cause significant damage.
• Military power grows disconnected from population size and economic strength. South
Korea’s government announced that it would spend nearly $1 billion over the next five years
on AI research and development including government in-kind contributions and
reprogrammed funds,
• South Korea’s annual AI R&D spending may reach $1 billion within the next year or two. If
South Korea does reach such a figure, it would match the 2015 AI R&D budget of the United
States, a country with a nearly twelve-fold larger economy.
• Most actors in cyber space will have no choice but to enable relatively high levels of
autonomy, or else risk being outcompeted by “machine- speed” adversaries.
• The applications of AI to warfare and espionage are likely to be as irresistible as aircraft.
Preventing expanded military use of AI is likely impossible.
10

Use Cases
• Robot Swarms: Uninhabited vehicles, like
the Predator aircraft or the Packbot ground
robot, have already proven invaluable in
today’s conflicts. As uninhabited vehicles
incorporate increasing automation and
become true robotic systems, they will have
tremendous value in future military
operations
• Billions Of Drones : Ultra-cheap 3D-printed
mini-drones could allow the United States to
field billions of tiny, insect-like drones.
Swarms in nature are wholly emergent
entities that arise from simple rules. Bees,
ants, and termites. They are not individually
intelligent, yet their colonies can exhibit
extraordinarily complex behavior. 11
Link

Link

Algorithmic Targeting using AI
• Algorithmic Targeting (A2A) : Another
major use case for AI, of particular value
in a tactical context, is the use of AI in
developing rapid and accurate automatic
target recognition (ATR) systems: start-up
Deep Learning Analytics, for instance, has
developed a machine-learning based ATR
program prototype for DARPA, to trial
systems assisting pilots in finding and
engaging targets.
• Situational Awareness and
Understanding (A2A) : While greatly
supporting force projection in asymmetric
conflicts, UAVs at present still know a
number of operational limitations, such as
a low flying speed and vulnerability to air
defense systems. The enhanced
situational awareness enabled by more
autonomous and survivable drones can
strengthen the security of bases and,
experts have suggested.
13
Link

Cushioning rising cost of defense machinaries
• Rising Costs: Augustine’s Law: In 1984, Norm
Augustine observed as one of “Augustine’s
Laws” that the cost of military aircraft was
growing exponentially, while the defence
budget was only growing linearly.
• Automating Cyber Operations (G2G, D2D) :
There are indications that AI’s ability to sift
through prohibitively large quantities of data,
and pick up on vague cues can strengthen
security: for instance, Distil Networks uses
machine learning algorithms to begin to
defend against Advanced Persistent Threat
bots
14

China AI Strategy
• Intelligent and Autonomous Unmanned Systems: a weapon that utilizes AI to
automatically pursue, distinguish, and destroy enemy targets; often composed of
information collection and management systems, knowledge base systems,
assistance to decision systems, mission implementation systems, etc.,” such as
military-use robotics
• Future Intelligent Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Swarm Intelligence : Future PLA
swarms could be used for reconnaissance, strike, jamming, and other missions.
• Intelligent Unmanned Ground Vehicles
• Autonomous UUVs
• Defense, Offense, and Command in Information Warfare
• Cyber Defense and Cyber Warfare
• Simulation, War-gaming, and “Actual Combat” Training
• Intelligent zed Command Decision-making and/or Keeping Humans in the Loop 15

Country Case Studies (Russia)
• January 2017, President Putin called for the creation of “autonomous robotic
complexes”
• Russian robotic UGVs are still in development and testing stages, a number of them
have actually seen active combat service: the Uran-6 demining robot saw use by Russian
forces operating in Syria.
• Notably, at present most of these Russian military bots are still designed (or deployed)
to be controlled by remote operator, as the Russian defense establishment remains
somewhat uncomfortable with the notion of fully autonomous military systems
• Russia’s United Instrument Manufacturing Corporation (OPK) is working on using AI
systems for border protection, developing a system which will automatically interact
with video cameras, infrared and seismic sensors, radars and drones, in order to
monitor and observe any type of violations.
• In addition, the new system, to be deployed on Russia’s Eastern and Southern borders,
is intended not only to collect different types of information, but also contains elements
of artificial intelligence which will allow for analysis and forecasting of situations and
work out different solutions
16

Country Case Studies (Israel)
• Self-driving military vehicles to patrol the border with the Palestinian-governed
Gaza Strip.
• Israeli contractor Aeronautics Ltd has also produced a range of UAV control
systems which allegedly contain AI-algorithms. System functions include artificial
intelligence-based electronic/mechanical failure prediction; real-time decision
making support; the facilitating of data transfer between systems; and
hierarchical handling of xed/variable order data strings as a function of tool
safety
• The Israeli ‘Harpy’ anti-radiation UAV is claimed to already be able to detect,
target, and engage enemy radaring stallions without any human oversight or
supervision.
17

Country Case Studies (India)
• To study the whole range of issues on the implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on
the National security and defense needs, a multi-stakeholder task force on Strategic
Implementation of Artificial Intelligence for National Security and Defense was
constituted in February 2018.
• A Rs 73.9 Cr project has been sanctioned to the Centre for Artificial Intelligence and
Robotics (CAIR), a DRDO based laboratory. The project is to develop Artificial
Intelligence-based solutions to signal intelligence to enhance intelligence collation and
analysis capabilities to the armed forces.
• Another project named, Energy Harvesting Based Infrared Sensor Network for
Automated Human Intrusion Detection (EYESIRa), has been sanctioned for Rs 1.8 crore.
• Artificial Intelligence-based tools would aid the defense forces constructively in areas of
decision support, sensor data analysis, predictive maintenance, situational awareness,
accurate data extraction, security etc.
• These tools will assist the defense personnel in better operations, maintenance and
logistics support.
18

AR/ VR in Military Training in the US
• The U.S. military has constructed a massive virtual
reality platform to help train infantry soldiers in realistic
battlefields filled with millions of artificial intelligence
agents.
• in April, when the U.S. Army published a
whitepaper describing its ability to simulate real cities
in the U.S. and North Korea.
• The goal of the VR platform is to simulate anywhere on
Earth that the army might someday battle, preparing
soldiers for the area’s terrain before they actually ship
out.
• Soon the Army will be able to dramatically scale up the
number of intelligent entities represented in simulation
scenarios to the millions to simulate a real warzone
with random actions of intelligent entities.
19Link

AR/ VR in Military Training in the US
• One will be able to train in a jungle or
desert environment while stationed in
upstate New York or Alaska, no longer
will the military have to spend millions
to move soldiers, sailors and airmen to
national training centers.
• Virtual flight training allows the services
to train pilots faster, safer, and
cheaper. Flying virtually allows pilots to
make mistakes and not risk injury or the
damage to expensive aircraft.
20
Link

Use of VR by Israeli Military in Tunnel Warfare
• Hezbollah planned to use them to abduct
or kill Israeli soldiers or civilians, and to
seize territory in the event of hostilities,
according to the military.
• The Hezbollah tunnels exposed by Israel
have been digitally scanned and appear on
a soldier’s headset as they are in reality.
“The soldier sees what a tunnel looks like,”
says H.
Since it is not always possible to train in
the field, the virtual world allows
personnel to familiarise themselves with a
hostile underground environment without
leaving their base.
21Link

Terrorism Threats
• Artificial Intelligence can help
not only military and defense
strategy, it will also bring new
opportunities for rogue
governments, bad state actors
and terrorist organizations. New
counter- strategy will be needed
to counter those threats through
asymmetric methods and own AI
defense strategy.
• Long video link on autonomous
drones (9 minutes)
22Link

Facial Recognition
• Facial Recognition is a fundamental change that will define
the future security and military landscape. With the advent
of AI capabilities, lots of functionalities will be developed
on top of it. China is already using it for internal security
mechanisms.
• The Army's C5ISR Center has been implementing two face
and voice recognition programs— Video Identification,
Collection and Exploitation (VICE) and Voice Identity
Biometric Exploitation Services (VIBES)—that U.S. Central
Command and the Combined Joint Task Force - Operation
Inherent Resolve use to identify people who may pose a
threat to the DOD's missions.
• In the past year, VICE has been able to create about 25,000
biometric records, process hundreds of watchlist matches,
facially template thousands of individuals, and voice-print
hundreds of "unpictured, unvoiced ISIS fighters" and other
actors.
23Link

Singularity
What is the basic argument? 24

Moore’s Law
Exponential and Non-Exponential Trendsin IT intelligence.org/[…]/exponential-and-non-exponential/
25
5

Asian Tiger Capital Partners, Level 16, UTC Tower, Panthapath, Dhaka-1215, Tel: (880)-2-9114286Asian Tiger Capital Partners, Celebration Point (5th floor), Plot–03,Road–113/A, Gulshan –2,Dhaka-1212, Tel: (880)-2-9852111, Web: www.at-capital.com
Definition of Superintelligence
An agent is called superintelligent if it
exceeds the level of current human
intelligence in all areas of interest.
Nick Bostrom: How long before Superintelligence?
www.nickbostrom.com/superintelligence.html
Rock
Mouse
Chimp
Fool
Genius
Superintelligence
26

Advantages of AIs over Brains
Hardware:
– Size
– Speed
– Memory
Software:
– Editability
– Copyability
– Expandability
Effectiveness:
– Rationality
– Coordination
– Communication
Human Brain Modern Microprocessor
86 billion neurons 1.4 billion transistors
firing rate of 200 Hz 4’400’000’000 Hz
120 m/s signal speed
Advantages of AIs, Uploads and Digital Minds
kajsotala.fi/Papers/DigitalAdvantages.pdf
300’000’000 m/s
27

Superintelligence
What are potential outcomes? 28

Definition of Superintelligence
An agent is called superintelligent if it
exceeds the level of current human
intelligence in all areas of interest.
Nick Bostrom: How long before Superintelligence?
www.nickbostrom.com/superintelligence.html
Rock
Mouse
Chimp
Fool
Genius
Superintelligence
29

Takeoff Scenarios
Time
now time until takeoﬀ takeoﬀ duration
Human Level
Intelligence
Physical Limit
Superintelligence
??
Separate Questions!
?
Feedback
30
The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate
intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf

Military Robots
P.W.Singer
go.ted.com/xe3 31

Books
32

APPENDIX
4TH Industrial Revolution
33

The Fourth Industrial Revolution
• Industry 4.0 is the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing
technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the Internet of things and cloud
computing.
• Industry 4.0 creates what has been called a "smart factory". Within the modular
structured smart factories, cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes, create a
virtual copy of the physical world and make decentralized decisions. Over the Internet of
Things, cyber-physical systems communicate and cooperate with each other and with
humans in real time, and via the Internet of Services, both internal and cross-
organizational services are offered and used by participants of the value chain. 34

Speed Of Digital Economy
New Technologies Spreads Ever Faster
Years in 50 Million Users
Radio
TV
iPod
Internet
Facebook
Twitter
Pokemon Go
38 Years
13 Years
4
3
1
9 Months
19 Days
35

Disruptive Technologies = New Economic Opportunities
Disruptive Technologies
Circular Economy
Sharing Economy
Blockchain
Mobile/Cloud
AI, Machine Leaning
IoT, Big Data
Drone, VR/AR
Digital Health
Project Development
FinTech
Climate Changes
Healthcare
Education
Agriculture & Food
Smart & Sustainable City
36

37

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