The document discusses agile planning methodologies, emphasizing that while plans can be useless, the process of planning is essential. It outlines techniques for estimating and prioritizing work using story points and velocity, detailing how to assess the team's ability to commit to delivering features within a specified timeframe. The document also explores ongoing release planning and the evolving understanding of what can be achieved during sprints based on confidence intervals and backlog management.

1. Copyright © 2017 Agile Velocity, LLC. All Rights Reserved. AGILE VELOCITY PROPRIETARY
Agile = No Planning = Bull$h!t
Reese Schmit, Agile Coach
Agile Velocity

2. Sponsors
Advocates
In Kind
Supporters

3. “…I have
always found
that plans are
useless, but
planning is
indispensable.
”
-Dwight D.
Eisenhower

4. The point is not
to Deliver the
plan
@ReeseNDesist

5. Agile Teams
plan product
construction
in layers

6. • One item per sticky written
with sharpie
• 1 major project
• 1 minor update
• Something in the middle
Let’s get your house ready to sell

8. Story
Points
Story Points
A relative measure of
scope of a Story
i.e. How big a feature
is compared to other
features taking into
account complexity,
uncertainty and risk
Velocity
The average amount
of work the team has
Finished over
previous Sprints

9. Let’s Size this
Backlog

10. Let’s Prioritize
Now that it’s Sized

11. by ROI
Ordering MoSCoW

12. Feature Points Cumulative Total
Story A 2 2
Story B 5 7
Story C 3 10
Story D 1 11
Story E 3 14
Story F 2 16
Story G 5 21
Story H 2 23
Story I 2 25
Story J 3 28
Story K 5 33
Story L 2 35
Story M 8 43
Story N 2 45
Story O 5 50
Story P 2 52
Story Q 8 60
•Team Historical Velocity = 10 Points/ Sprint
•Sprints are 2 weeks each
•Release is scheduled for 6 Sprints/ 12 weeks
•Backlog has been reduced to 60 points
How comfortable would you be committing to the
business that the team will deliver the scope of
Story A-Q in 12 weeks?
Do we commit to our
Capacity?

13. Feature Points Cumulative Total
Story A 2 2
Story B 5 7
Story C 3 10
Story D 1 11
Story E 3 14
Story F 2 16
Story G 5 21
Story H 2 23
Story I 2 25
Story J 3 28
Story K 5 33
Story L 2 35
Story M 8 43
Story N 2 45
Story O 5 50
Story P 2 52
Story Q 8 60
While we are still forecasting to deliver 60 points, as far as committing
to features we would say:
“We are virtually certain we will deliver stories A-K,
and Stories L and M have a 50% chance. It is unlikely
that Stories N-Q will make it in the release.”
90% Confidence
50% Confidence
10% Confidence
Do we commit to our
Full Capacity?
Fixed Date - (#Sprints x Velocity) / Risk Factors = Confidence Target
Fixed Scope - Total Scope x Risk Factor / Velocity = #Sprints
Chance Story Points Confidence
10% (6x10) / 1 = 60
50% (6x10) / 1.4 = 43
90% (6x10) / 1.8 = 33
inscopeatrisk

14. 1.Total up your backlog
2.Determine you are 90%
confidant you can complete
3.Determine what you are
10% confidant you can
complete
4.Create stickies and place
them at those spots next to
your backlog
Your turn!

16. After 2 Sprints we completed A-G and achieved our target velocity. New
Stories X-Z arrived. Now we would say,
“We are virtually certain we will deliver stories H-L
incl. X, and Stories Y & Z have a 50% chance. It is
unlikely that Stories M-N will make it in the release,
and we almost certainly won’t have time for O-Q.”
is ongoing
RELEASE PLANNING
Feature Points Cumulative Total
Story A 2 Done
Story B 5 Done
Story C 3 Done
Story D 1 Done
Story E 3 Done
Story F 2 Done
Story G 5 Done
Story H 2 2
Story I 2 4
Story J 3 7
Story X 8 15
Story K 5 20
Story L 2 22
Story Y 5 27
Story Z 2 29
Story M 8 37
Story N 2 39
Story O 5 44
Story P 2 46
Story Q 8 54
inscopeatriskoutofscope

17. BurnUP
Release

18. And just like
that we have
a Plan