This document outlines an Agile planning and tracking process to help estimate the number of sprints required to deliver a minimum viable product (MVP) while accounting for changes. It describes breaking work into stories, assigning estimates, defining MVP, adding contingency, estimating team capacity, and developing an initial sprint plan. It then discusses reassessing velocity, scope, contingency and team capacity after each sprint and reforecasting the plan accordingly. Multiple examples are provided where adjustments were needed due to additional stories, reduced team capacity, expanded MVP scope and adding a sprint to complete the MVP.

1. Jeffrey D. Mansfield
Project Management/Program Management/Portfolio Management Professional
jeffreydmansfield#@gmail.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffreydmansfield/
December 2018

2. Answering these questions are a challenge as changes
in scope and priority will occur during development.
The following Agile planning and tracking process can
help answer these questions.

3. 1. Break backlog into epics/stories
2. Assign story points
Part of prioritization process
Use Fibonacci numbers (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) for t-shirt sizing of effort
3. Define MinimumViable Product - MVP
Product Owner defines the minimum functionality to be released
4. Add additional story point contingency to account for:
Changes in requirement (new functionality)
Resolving technical debt (rework)
5. Estimate team capacity in story points
Estimate number of story points (velocity) to be completed for each sprint
▪ Velocity will improve as team matures
▪ Velocity will change as team changes
6. Develop an initial sprint plan
Number of sprints required until MVP + Contingency < sum of velocity

4. Sprint 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sprint End Date 2/15/19 3/1/19 3/15/19 3/29/19 4/12/19 4/26/19 5/10/19 5/24/19 6/7/19 6/21/19
Plan
Original Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Total Story Points (incl Backlog) 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Original Total MVP & Contingency Story
Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Planned Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 40 40
Original Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 240 310 380 450 520 560 600
Original Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 390 330 260 190 120 50
Original Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 360 290 220 150 80 40

5. 1. After every sprint, assess the following:
What was the actual velocity of the team?
The number of story points the team completed
Is the planned velocity too high or too low based on actual?
Can any changes be made to increase velocity?
Has the story points required to meet MVP changed?
Does the contingency need to be adjusted?
Has the team capacity changed?
Have people been added or removed?
2. Reforecast the sprint plan based on the assessment

6. 1. First 3 sprints on plan, additional stories added to
backlog, but backlog is less than MVP and
Contingency planned.

7. Sprint 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sprint End Date 2/15/19 3/1/2019 3/15/2019 3/29/2019 4/12/2019 4/26/2019 5/10/2019 5/24/2019 6/7/2019 6/21/2019
Plan
Original Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Total Story Points (incl Backlog) 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Original Total MVP & Contingency Story
Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Planned Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 40 40
Original Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 240 310 380 450 520 560 600
Original Remaining Story Points (Incl
Backlog) 450 390 330 260 190 120 50
Original Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 360 290 220 150 80 40
Actual/Forecast
Actual Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Total Story Points (Incl Backlog) 500 550 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Total MVP & Contingency Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 40 40
Actual Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 240 310 380 450 520 560 600
Actual Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 440 430 360 290 220 150 80 40
Actual Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 360 290 220 150 80 40
Adjusted total story points based on backlog.
Total story points still within team capacity.
Still on target for 10 sprints.

8. 1. First 3 sprints on plan, additional stories added to
backlog, but backlog is less than MVP and
Contingency planned.
2. Loss of team member for 3 sprints reducing velocity
and MVP cannot be met as originally planned.

9. Sprint 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sprint End Date 2/15/19 3/1/2019 3/15/2019 3/29/2019 4/12/2019 4/26/2019 5/10/2019 5/24/2019 6/7/2019 6/21/2019
Plan
Original Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Total Story Points (incl Backlog) 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Original Total MVP & Contingency Story
Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Planned Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 40 40
Original Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 240 310 380 450 520 560 600
Original Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 390 330 260 190 120 50
Original Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 360 290 220 150 80 40
Actual/Forecast
Actual Team Capacity Story Points 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570
Actual Total Story Points (Incl Backlog) 500 550 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Total MVP & Contingency Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 60 60 60 70 70 40 40
Actual Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 230 290 350 420 490 530 570
Actual Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 440 430 370 310 250 180 110 70 30
Actual Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 370 310 250 180 110 70 30
Adjusted team velocity to reflect loss of team member.
Team velocity will no longer cover MVP.

10. 1. First 3 sprints on plan, additional stories added to
backlog, but backlog is less than MVP and
Contingency planned.
2. Lose team member for 3 sprints reducing velocity
and MVP cannot be met as originally planned.
3. Added additional velocity to later sprints to keep to
current sprint plan.

11. Sprint 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sprint End Date 2/15/19 3/1/2019 3/15/2019 3/29/2019 4/12/2019 4/26/2019 5/10/2019 5/24/2019 6/7/2019 6/21/2019
Plan
Original Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Total Story Points (incl Backlog) 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Original Total MVP & Contingency Story
Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Planned Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 40 40
Original Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 240 310 380 450 520 560 600
Original Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 390 330 260 190 120 50
Original Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 360 290 220 150 80 40
Actual/Forecast
Actual Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Total Story Points (Incl Backlog) 500 550 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Total MVP & Contingency Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 60 60 60 70 70 55 55
Actual Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 230 290 350 420 490 545 600
Actual Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 440 430 370 310 250 180 110 55
Actual Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 370 310 250 180 110 55
Decision taken to reduce number of team members planned to be released for
sprint 9 and 10.
Increased forecasted velocity to reflect additional team members for these
sprints.
MVP is now being met.

12. 1. First 3 sprints on plan, additional stories added to
backlog, but backlog is less than MVP and
Contingency planned.
2. Lose team member for 3 sprints reducing velocity
and MVP cannot be met as originally planned.
3. Added additional velocity to later sprints to keep to
current sprint plan.
4. Product Owner adds additional stories to MVP.

13. Sprint 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sprint End Date 2/15/19 3/1/2019 3/15/2019 3/29/2019 4/12/2019 4/26/2019 5/10/2019 5/24/2019 6/7/2019 6/21/2019
Plan
Original Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Total Story Points (incl Backlog) 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Original Total MVP & Contingency Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Planned Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 40 40
Original Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 240 310 380 450 520 560 600
Original Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 390 330 260 190 120 50
Original Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 360 290 220 150 80 40
Actual/Forecast
Actual Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Actual Total Story Points (Incl Backlog) 500 550 600 600 600 650 735 735 735 735
Actual Total MVP & Contingency Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 700 700
Actual Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 60 60 60 70 70 55 55
Actual Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 230 290 350 420 490 545 600
Actual Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 440 430 370 310 300 315 245 190 135
Actual Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 370 310 250 180 110 155 100
Product Owner adds 100 story points to MVP.
MVP now exceeds team capacity.
MVP can no longer be delivered within current sprint plan.

14. 1. First 3 sprints on plan, additional stories added to
backlog, but backlog is less than MVP and
Contingency planned.
2. Lose team member for 3 sprints reducing velocity
and MVP cannot be met as originally planned.
3. Added additional velocity to later sprints to keep to
current sprint plan.
4. Product Owner adds additional stories to MVP
5. Additional Sprint is added to complete MVP.

15. Sprint 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sprint End Date 2/15/19 3/1/2019 3/15/2019 3/29/2019 4/12/2019 4/26/2019 5/10/2019 5/24/2019 6/7/2019 6/21/2019 7/5/2019 7/19/2019
Plan
Original Team Capacity Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Original Total Story Points (incl Backlog) 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Original Total MVP & Contingency Story
Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 630 700
Original Planned Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 40 40
Original Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 240 310 380 450 520 560 600 600 600
Original Remaining Story Points (Incl
Backlog) 450 390 330 260 190 120 50
Original Remaining MVP & Contingency
Story Points 550 490 430 360 290 220 150 80 40
Actual/Forecast
Actual Team Capacity Story Points 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700
Actual Total Story Points (Incl Backlog) 500 550 600 600 600 650 735 735 735 735 735 735
Actual Total MVP & Contingency Story Points 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 700 700 700 700
Actual Team Velocity for Sprint 50 60 60 60 60 60 70 70 70 70 70
Actual Total Completed Story Points 50 110 170 230 290 350 420 490 560 630 700 700
Actual Remaining Story Points (Incl Backlog) 450 440 430 370 310 300 315 245 175 105 35 35
Actual Remaining MVP & Contingency Story
Points 550 490 430 370 310 250 180 110 140 70
Decision taken to keep team fully staffed and to add an additional sprint.
Updated forecasted velocity based on decision.
MVP is now being met.
Some additional backlog items will not be delivered (35 story points).

18. Jeffrey D. Mansfield
Project Management/Program
Management/Portfolio Management Professional
Driving Business Strategy Implementation
through Projects
http://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffreydmansfield/
http://www.twitter.com/jeffmansfld
Resume -
http://www.slideshare.net/jeffreydmansfield/resume
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