1. Pastor James Wuye and Imam Mohammed Ashafa transformed religious conflict in Nigeria by cooperating to promote peace instead of violence. 2. They established interfaith education programs and early warning systems to prevent tensions from escalating. 3. By bringing religious leaders together and engaging youth, their efforts have helped sustain peace in the regions where they work.

1. Agents of ChangeComputer simulations and empirical dataAndrzej NowakFlorida Atlantic UniversityWarsaw University

2. Bubble model of social changeBubbles of NEW apprear in the sea of OLD and growSocial influence underlies individual choices in social transitions

3. individual in a social contexteach individual affects and is affected by a social context

4. How can we conceptualize social influenceA number of people gathered in an auditoriumto vote on an issueThey can discuss their opinions with others before they voteHow will the discussion change the outcome of the vote?

5. How social interactions change attitudes in a groupImagine that 400 individuals are to vote whether to privatize their companyThe individuals are sitting in a conference room. There are 20 rows of 20 seats in each row.Each individual comes with an attitude concerning privatizationIndividuals differ in strength: some are more persuasive than others

6. Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeight of bars= strength

7. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.Dynamics Chose an individual, check if this individual will change his/her opinionEach individual adopts the opinion, that is prevalent among his/her neighbors

8. The role of distanceLatane, Bonavento, Nowak, LiuNProbability of interaction decreaseswith the square of the distanceResults general across cultures:USA, China, Poland, scientistsLatane, B., Liu, J., Nowak., A., Bonavento, & M., Zheng, L (1995). Distance matters: Physical distance and social impact. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 21, 795-805Results confirmed in Internet communication studyDistance

9. The role of leadersLeadershighly crediblestrongly connected

10. CommunityManagement

11. Social influenceInfluence is proportional to Number of sourcesStrength of sourcesDistance between sources and the target

12. Dynamics Chose an individual, check if this individual will change his/her opinionEach individual adopts the opinion, that is most prevalent among his/her neighbors

13. Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeight of bars= strength

14. Final attitudes as the result of social interaction1. Number of individuals having minority opinion has decreased (polarization)2. ClusteredConclusion: Minority opinion can survive by forming clusters

15. Clustering and polarization in social reality Polarization attitude polarization in social groupsvoting behaviorClusteringlanguagereligions fashionsopinions

16. Clustering in the choice of food

17. Clustering in marketing Prediction of campaign success (15/17)\GoldenbergAir-view of a sub-urban neighborhood; crosses on the roofs indicate air-conditioner purchase

18. Generality of the modelRobust properties of the modelCritical factors for the emergence of polarization and clusteringlocal influencenon linearity of influence processindividual differences in the strength of persuasion

19. Leader + followers

20. Stronghold

21. Wall

22. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.Structure of contactsThe effects of social influence depend on the structure of contacts betwen individuals Opinion clusters follow communication patterns

23. Social influenceLeads to clusteringDevelopment of local pockets of coherent reality belief systems local culturecritical role of leaders

24. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.Minority influence insocial change

25. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

26. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

27. When minority has stronger influence than majority, social change may occurFor minority to be stronger it needs to Have strong argumets Be consistent among themselves and in timeMinority influence takes a different route than majority influence It is processed in a more rational wayLeads to private acceptanceIs delayed in time

28. Simulating minority influenceAdd a constant term to the influence of selected opinionThe minority grows as a “bubble of new in the sea of old”The social change happens as these bubbles connect and the “old” becomes confined to islandsThese islands are in fact strongholdsDouble social reality during transitions

29. Bias favors the minority

31. Bias withdrawnBias reversed

32. ConclusionSocial transitions occus as „bubbles of new” in the „sea of old”They resemble a process of nucleation in physicsDuring the transition two distinct, separated in space, internally coherent realities exist. The transiton occurs as the island of new reality expand at the expence of the old reality

33. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.Practical advises for facilitating changeConcentrate on leaders and introduction of a local changeIdentify leaders who are likely to adopt the new positionForm a social network connecting the leadersGive a lot of outside support in the beginning, gradually withdraw the support as the group growthForm a social network around the leadersForm a social network connecting the groupNatural experiment (1600 participants) shows the effectiveness of the method

34. Testing the theory

35. Complex Systems DynamicsThe Polish reformBalcerowicz plan introduced in 1990 transformed the economic system from ineffective central planning to a free market economy

36. Number of enterprises per capita19891990

37. Number of enterprises per capita19911992

38. Education and economic growth

40. Double reality of social transitions:Regions of “new” and “old”, political and economic dataVoting for pro-reformistpartiesNumber of enterprises per capita

41. EU referendum 2002

42. Dynamics of the economic transitionThe critical importance of local processes – A global model cannot explan the dynamicsThe importance of the social factors in economic processes: education, culture, history, politicsThisapproach allows us to connect complex macroscopic collective trends to their simple local causes.Nowak A. Vallacher R.R., Kus, M., Urbaniak, J., (2005) The Dynamics of Societal Transition: Modeling Non-Linear Change in the Polish Economic System, International Journal of Sociology.Nowak, A, Kus, M. Urbaniak J, Zarycki T. (2002) Simulating the coordination of individual economic decisions. Physica A, 297, 613-630Yarri., G., Nowak A., Rakocy, K., Solomon S., (2008) Microscopic Study Reveals the Singular Origins of Growth European Physics Journal B, 62, 4

43. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, which alerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse the situation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoon riots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuye immediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the states they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of the cartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appeal for calm.To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafa set up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders and community heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback. Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international donor, government, and religious organizations.

44. How to build social capital?Sequence of actions where the next action builds on the previous oneEach action increases the level of trust among the local society, willingness for cooperation and the belief in success

45. Social change in Chmielnik (analysis by Praszkier)Local telephone networkTelekardiomatChange of attitudesMisantrophytoTrust and cooperationFarmersChmielnik ZdrójMineral waterSwichboard at the telephone systemSchoolsSewage treatmentGrowth of Social capital Kazimierz JaworskiChmielnikLocal goverment200  900Enterprises Increase in Entreprenourshipand social involvementBusinessmanTeaching languages and IT Economic growthDirect sales of farmers productsFirmshigh-techYoung people conduct a court case against alcoholism

47. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.Dagmeara Bienkowska: Zegocin: cookbookFailure of previous attmpts of change dissintegtrationDorota Komornicka: Śnieżnik: very small local funds invested in financing children projects, exhibitions, education

48. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.Pastor James Wuye & Imam Mohammed Ashafa, Nigeria Deeply ingrained, intractable religious conflict, full of hate and eagerness to shed blood. Multiple lurking and conspicuous conflicts, including burning mosques, churches, killing, exiling, etc. Result: multiple conflicts over power and control, decreasing the region’s ability to develop.

49. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.Dimenensions of conflictConflict around the religious issues: unstructured, existing, and directConflict around building peace through education: unstructured, potential, and approached in a direct way (organizing Christian/Muslim camps, influencing the schools’ curriculum)

50. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.SolutionPastor James Wuye, a Christian priest, and Imam Mohammed Ashafa, a Muslim cleric, are bringing peace and peace-building education to Nigeria. In the past, they were members of militant youth groups, chasing, hating, and harming each other (e.g., James Wuye lost his arm in a clash with Mohammed Ashafa’s group). At some point, in a moment of mutual enlightenment, they understood that operating together they could bring peace and understanding between their respective religions.They are now using the power of their faith and the example of interfaith cooperation to prevent and intervene in religious and politically motivated conflicts in Nigeria, and especially to educate youth in building avenues to peaceful cooperation. Through TV programs and a portfolio of educational projects, they are changing the model of reacting to any stimulus with violence into a model of dialogue and understanding.

51. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.ResultsTheir other early-warning techniques include “deprogramming” of violent youth through Christian and Islamic instruction, which teaches forgiveness and nonviolence. They also help communities identify and use traditionally accepted peace-building methods that may have been forgotten or abandoned.To ensure that their ideas are passed on to the next generation, they have set up peace clubs in pre-school, primary, secondary, and tertiary institutions. Each child who goes through the training is encouraged to plant a tree to symbolize their commitment to building, and not destroying, their communities. They have also developed a peace-education curriculum, which is used in schools and by other organizations interested in peace-building, as well as the “Ethical Code for Religious Instructions in Schools.”

52. Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, which alerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse the situation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoon riots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuye immediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the states they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of the cartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appeal for calm.To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafa set up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders and community heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback. Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international donor, government, and religious organizations.