This document provides an overview of investment opportunities in Iraq. It discusses Iraq's oil wealth as the positive factor, noting Iraq's large oil reserves and low production costs. However, it also points out weaknesses in Iraq's banking system, infrastructure, and private sector development as challenges. The document argues that despite risks, Iraq presents a attractive risk-reward profile for investors given the gap between the real risks in Iraq versus the higher perceived risks, which are likely to narrow as the country develops.
2. Disclaimer & Sources 3
Abbreviations and conventions used 4
Why Iraq? 5 – 10
The good, the bad and the ugly 11 – 17
Capital Markets 18 – 21
Operating leverage 22 – 26
About Asia Frontier Capital 27 – 29
Fund Information 30 – 38
Disclaimer 39
AFC Iraq Fund
CONTENTS
2
3. Disclaimer
This presentation is prepared on a confidential basis to a limited number of professional investors solely to provide some
information about Iraq and its potential
This presentation is based on information publically available either through web sites, publications, presentations and research
reports. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness
Any information contained in this presentation is not to be relied upon as authorative or taken in substitution for the exercise of
judgment. This presentation is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any investment product
The analysis are those of AFC’s Iraq team and reflect their views and outlook, however, said views and outlook are subject to
change and maybe superseded without notice.
Sources
Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), Iraqi Securities Commission (ISC), Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), Iraqi Depository Centre (IDC), Iraq
Statistical Organization (COSIT), Iraqi Ministry of Oil, Iraqi Ministry of Finance, Iraqi companies, … and others:
IMF, World Bank, IEA, EIA, BP, CIA World Fact Book, Trading Economics, Index Mundi, Iraq Body Count, … others
Presentations/Research reports : DB, Standard Chartered, Arqaam Capital, Rabee Securities, Akkadia Partners, Sansar Capital,
HSBC, Euphrates Advisors, FMG, Pareto Securities, … others. Iraqi companies research mostly provided by Rabee Securities.
News sources: WSJ, NYT, FT, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Economist, International Business Times, CNN, BBC, … others
A special thanks to the research team at Rabee Securities who have been very generous with their time and resource. The Rabee
Securities RSISX USD Index is used through-out the presentation as a measure of the market.
3
DISCLAIMER AND SOURCES
AFC Iraq Fund
4. Currencies
$ = US Dollar, IQD = Iraqi Dinar. All figures displayed in $ using effective exchange rate of $ = 1,190 IQD
Economic terms
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used through-out as Nominal or Current prices GDP while GDP growth rate is used as real GDP
growth rate where 2007 is used as the base year used for real GDP
Note: Oil is the main driver of Iraq’s economy and hence its nominal GDP is highly dependent on price of oil. This explains the
seemingly large movements in estimates for future years which are dependent on estimates for the price of oil
Figures
Billions and millions in main body text but abbreviated to (m) and (bn) in charts and tables
Iraqi specific terms
CBI = Central Bank of Iraq, MoF = Ministry of Finance, SOE’s = State Owned Enterprises
KRI is the semi-autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq which is governed by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)
Oil terms
bbl/d = barrels per day
Others
The RSISUSD Index is the Rabee Securities RSISX Index in USD
To make it for easier reading the following abbreviations are used throughout :avg. for average, est. for estimate, esp. for
especially and vs. for versus
KSA is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as used in tables
ISIS refers to the so-called Islamic State of Iraq & Sham or Da’esh as used in Arabic
4
ABBREVIATIONS AND CONVENTIONS USED
AFC Iraq Fund
6. The essence of the AFC Iraq investment thesis is
arbitraging the delta between the real Iraq risk, high as it
is, versus the perceived risk which is much higher still
This delta is a function of an asymmetric information flow
on Iraq, that is bound to narrow as this information flow
begins to reflect the country’s real developments
The risk-award proposition of the AFC Iraq Fund argues
that as this delta narrows, asset prices – priced at the
perceived risk – should rise reflecting the real risk
6AFC Iraq Fund
INVESTMENT THESIS
7. COVID-19 brings with it, the often raised, perceptions of a perfect storm to
hit Iraq
Economic risks
Weaker world demand for oil post-COVID-19 squeezes government revenues;
The economic disruptions to Iraq’s economy in COVID-19’s wake;
The budget’s structural imbalances, a legacy of failed economic policies, leave no
room for the government to cushion the economic blow
Health risks : A second wave that the weak healthcare infrastructure is ill-
equipped to handle
Political risks : Months long nationwide protests demanding economic
reforms & services, could return in response to austerity measures, and
bring with them the political chaos of the last six months
7AFC Iraq Fund
PERCIEVED RISK : PERFECT STORM RE-
VISITED
8. Not the first perfect storm, the 2014-2017 storm was far more perfect: ISIS
took over a third of the country, threated its break-up, and oil prices crashed.
Now, as then, the perfect storm fears do not account for:
The severe crisis forced the political elite to suspend their quarrels and
appoint a prime minister with a real, political & economic, reform agenda
The elite still have an oversized influence on economic polices, yet the
scale of the crisis is providing the new government the opportunity to
implement some meaningful economic reforms
The combination of a smaller drop in oil demand than feared, and a
greater supply decline than hoped for, have provided support for oil
prices, and relieved the acute pressures on government finances
8AFC Iraq Fund
REAL RISK : NOT THE FIRST PERFECT
STORM
9. The new government is discarding the failed
old economic model, by focusing on un-
shackling the private sector to drive economic
growth. The changed world demand for oil
post-COVID-19 will keep oil prices moderate
& sustain the reform drive
Reforms would include deregulations,
removing bureaucratic barriers, and providing
opportunities for the banking sector to fund
the private sector’s growth
The deep bear market – down over 72% from
the 2014 peak to the recent lows – paced by
continuous foreign outflows, is yet to discount
any upside from the current crisis
9AFC Iraq Fund
IS THE TIME RIGHT?
• Top chart : RSISUSD Index for the Iraq Stock Exchange in USD vs. foreign
Inflows and outflows as end of May 2020
• Bottom chart : RSISUSD Index Dec 2010- 14 June 2020
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Foreign Inflows ($m)
Foreign Outflows ($m)
RSIsUSD Index (LHS)
10. Iraq's equity market is discounting
neither an economic nor a corporate
earnings recovery
Most global markets have had multi-
year bull markets and yet to discount
the vastly different economic
assumptions post COVID-19
The risk-reward profile for Iraq, vs
other global markets is, arguably, very
attractive given the huge gap between
real and perceived risk for Iraq, and
the significant rallies in global markets
from the lows in March
10AFC Iraq Fund
SIGNIFICANT CATCH-UP POTENTIAL
Chart : 5-year normalized returns for the RSISUSD Index vs MSCI World
Index, MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI Frontier Markets Index. As
of end of 14 June 2020
12. Holds the 5th largest proved oil reserves in the world
accounting for 9% of world total & potentially 15%
World’s third largest oil exporter. Top four export
destination India, China, US & S Korea in 2019
Production costs among the lowest in the world, will
allow it to maintain and grow market share even in a
low world demand for oil post COVID-19
12AFC Iraq Fund
THE GOOD: VAST OIL WEALTH
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
V
enezuela
KSA
Canada
Iran
Iraq
Ru
ssia
Kuw
ait
U
A
E
U
S
Libya
Top World Oil Reserves 2018
(by % of total)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
KSA
Ru
ssia
Iraq
Canada
U
A
E
U
S
Kuw
ait
N
igeria
Kazakhstan
A
ngola
World Top Oil Exporters 2019
(by % of total)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Chin
a
U
SA
India
Jap
an
S
K
orea
G
erm
any
Spain
Italy
U
K
Fran
ce
World Top Oil Importers 2019
(by % of total)
0. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 35. 40. 45. 50.
Brazil
Canada
United States
Norway
Russia
Iran
UAE
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait Selected Countries Production cost of one bbl of oil 2015
Total cost $
Operational expenditure ($)
Capitalexpenditure ($)
13. Banking(*)
A cash dominated economy
About 90% of the cash in circulation is outside the banking system
About 20% of adults have bank accounts
About 15% of employees whose wages are paid into an account at a financial institution
Lack of access to credit
Credit to the private sector at 9% of GDP vs. avg. 55% for MENA
About 2% of adults have a credit card
About 4% of adults with outstanding housing loans vs over 8% for MENA
Small commercial banking sector: Public sector banks account for about 90% of total assets and deposits
Telecommunication
Fixed line network penetration at about 7%
Around 52% (**) of the population have internet access
Mobile penetration at 90%+. 3G launched in 2015
Agriculture, Industrials & Minerals
Iraq was a self sufficient & exporting agricultural country
Iraq had a competitive advantage light industry, Oil & Gas related industries, and in minerals & materials
But Infrastructure across all sectors, after 40 years of conflict, has deteriorated significantly
(*) Most of data as of end 2017 sourced from IMF 19/249 report, and WB Findex 2017, (**) Internet World Stats shows that over 21m internet users, or over 52% penetration
rate (December 2019)
13AFC Iraq Fund
THE GOOD: STILL A NACENT ECONOMY
14. Young population of 39 million (2019e) growing
at 2.6% with 58.5% under 25 years of age
Income levels recovered but a long way to go
relative potential & to peers in the region
This young population as it grows will be a
massive driver of future economic growth
Age structure (2018 est.)
0-14 years : 39.01% (male 8,005,327 /female 7,674,802)
15-24 years : 19.42% (male 3,976,085 /female 3,829,086)
25-54 years : 33.97% (male 6,900,984 /female 6,752,797)
55-64 years : 4.05% (male 788,602 /female 839,291)
65 years +. : 3.55% (male 632,753 /female 794,489
14AFC Iraq Fund
THE GOOD: A YOUNG AND GROWING POPULATION
Note : GDP per Capital in above chart is based on real GDP (ie adjusted for inflation) and so
should not be confused with figures in later slides.
15. Oil & State dependence
Oil accounts for over 90% of government revenues. Government & State-Owned Enterprises (SOE’s)
account for bulk of economic activity
Government & SOE’s employ over 50% of workforce & are the main vehicle for transfer of oil wealth
Budget very sensitive to oil prices
Workforce challenges
40 years of conflict had a profound effect on quality of workforce (education and skills suffered)
Aggregate unemployment at 16% with high disparities by region, sex and age
Extreme demographic pressures given its very young population
Weak infrastructure
Weak administrative capacity in government across all levels
Weak infrastructure (electricity, roads and services)
Weak business environment (poor governance, inefficient judiciary and weak security)
15AFC Iraq Fund
THE BAD: INFRASTRUCTURE WEAKNESS
16. Violence & death toll
Top chart shows total death toll
Bottom chart shows death toll by anti-
government forces which peaked during the
ISIS conflict 2014-2017
The ISIS occupation of a 1/3 of the country and
the 3+ year war has been profound esp. the
effects on the population at large
Following the liberation of Mosul, fatalities
from violence receded considerably. Yet, the
scares are still present, and the challenge is to
contain the sectarian, ethnic tensions from in
the wake of years of violence
The displacement of over 3.6 million Iraqis, or
10% of the population, is coming to an end,
yet the it added a new layer of social &
economic tension
Charts source : Iraq Body Count, data as of May 2020
16AFC Iraq Fund
THE UGLY: VIOLENCE
17. Data from IMF Iraq country report July 2019, & so forward projections for 2020-2024 will be revised significantly lower in upcoming IMF estimates given the changes
world growth estimates and their effects on oil revenues for Iraq. GDP and government revenue estimates will be revised lower, and these will affect all other
numbers.
Oil revenues and exports are not adjusted for the new OPEC+ production cut deal
Oil production/export figures now include KRG production/exports and so differ from prior presentations
17AFC Iraq Fund
IRAQ IN NUMBERS
Macro Data 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
Nominal GDP ($bn) 138.5 185.8 218.0 234.6 234.7 177.7 175.2 195.5 224.2 224.1 241.5 254.1 267.3 281.1 296.5
Real GDP change % 6.4% 7.5% 13.9% 7.6% 0.7% 2.5% 15.2% -2.5% -0.6% 4.6% 5.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1%
Real Non-oil GDP change % 9.1% 8.6% 15.0% 12.4% -3.9% -14.4% -0.6% 0.8% 5.4% 5.0% 4.1% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Population (m) 31.0 31.8 32.6 33.4 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.0 37.9 38.9 39.9 41.0 42.0 43.1 44.2
Nominal GDP Per Capita ($) 4,374 5,687 6,693 7,021 6,517 5,047 4,843 5,263 5,882 5,728 6,017 6,172 6,326 6,486 6,666
CPI YoY % (avg) 2.4% 5.6% 6.1% 0.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
M2 Growth (YoY) 32.6% 20.7% 3.4% 15.9% 3.6% -9.1% 7.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 6.2% 5.4% 6.0% 5.9% 5.3%
Gross foreign reserves ($bn) 50.6 61.1 69.3 77.8 66.7 54.1 45.5 49.4 64.7 57.2 53.5 48.5 38.8 28.2 14.3
in months of imports 10.6 9.5 9.8 10.8 10.9 9.3 7.8 7.3 8.0 6.8 6.2 5.5 4.2 2.9 1.4
Current account as % of GDP 1.6% 10.9% 5.1% 1.1% 2.6% -6.5% -8.3% 1.8% 6.9% -5.2% -4.2% -4.3% -4.6% -5.3% -6.0%
Average exchange rate $/IQD 1,170 1,170 1,166 1,166 1,166 1,166 1,180 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182 1,182
Banking : Assets ($bn) 310.7 122.9 164.1 177.1 194.5 191.2 187.5 131.5 103.4
Banking : Deposits ($bn) 41.0 48.0 53.2 59.1 63.5 55.2 52.9 56.3 64.6
Banking : Private sector deposits ($bn) 11.69 15.55 18.11 20.97 21.19 20.27 20.10 21.93 23.00
Banking : Private sector deposits as % of GDP 8.4% 8.4% 8.3% 8.9% 9.0% 11.4% 11.5% 11.2% 10.3%
Banking : Loans to the private sector ($bn) 7.3 9.7 12.6 14.5 15.2 15.5 15.4 16.3 17.0
Banking : Loans to the private sector as % of GDP 5.3% 5.2% 5.8% 6.2% 6.5% 8.7% 8.8% 8.4% 7.6%
Government revenue as % of GDP 45.4% 48.1% 47.0% 42.2% 38.2% 30.6% 26.8% 33.0% 39.8% 40.5% 39.6% 37.9% 36.5% 35.5% 34.6%
Government oil revenues as % of total revenues 86.1% 89.2% 91.5% 91.7% 94.5% 90.8% 85.1% 87.3% 92.2% 91.9% 91.7% 91.0% 90.7% 90.1% 89.9%
Government expenditure as % of GDP 49.6% 43.4% 49.6% 48.0% 43.5% 43.4% 40.7% 34.6% 32.0% 44.6% 43.1% 41.2% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5%
Budget balance as % of GDP -4.2% 4.7% 4.1% -5.8% -5.3% -12.8% -13.9% -1.6% 7.8% -4.1% -3.5% -3.3% -4.0% -5.0% -5.9%
Government gross debt as % of GDP 53.5% 40.7% 34.8% 31.2% 32.0% 56.2% 64.2% 58.9% 49.3% 51.4% 50.5% 50.6% 51.5% 53.6% 56.4%
Government external debt as % of GDP 43.9% 32.8% 27.7% 25.3% 24.8% 37.2% 37.1% 35.6% 30.6% 32.2% 31.5% 30.5% 28.4% 26.8% 24.9%
Oil Production (million bbl/d) 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2
Production growth (%) 2.0% 11.4% 13.1% 0.0% 3.3% 20.0% 24.5% -3.5% -1.3% 4.1% 5.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6%
Oil Exports (million bbl/d) 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
Export growth(%) -1.3% 10.7% 17.4% 0.0% 8.3% 28.8% 13.1% 0.3% 1.6% 4.4% 5.5% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
19. External, $73.3bn (By end 2019 est.)
$4.7 billon in Euro bonds:
$2.7 billion bond issued in 2006, due in 2028 with 5.8% coupon
$1.0 billion bond issued in 2017, guaranteed by the US, due in 2022, with a 2.1% coupon
$1.0 billion bond issued in 2017 & due in 2023 with coupon 6.52%.
$41 billion to non-Paris Club creditors , accumulated under the pre-2003 regime. Excepted to be
reduced by 90%
$6 billion of restructured Paris Club debt, effective interest rate of 3% and payable over a period of
28 years
$22bn in borrowings mostly from the IMF, the World Bank and bilateral creditors. Effective interest
rate of around 3% and an average yield to maturity of 8.5 years.
Internal, $37.4 bn (By end 2019 est.)
$21.8 billion in T-Bills, 91, 182 & 365 days issued in IQD
$15.5 billion in government loans with state owned banks
19AFC Iraq Fund
CAPITAL MARKETS: DEBT
Note : Debt data are IMF & AFC estimates as of end of 2017, bond data are closing prices from Frankfurt Bourse
20. The Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) is at its infancy and yet to
play its part in the economy
The ISX is an SRO and governed by The Iraqi
Securities Commission (ISC)
The ISX operates an electronic trading platform
provided by NASDAQ-OMX
Share ownership is held electronically with the
Iraqi Depository Centre (IDC)
The ISX is made up of over 80 companies
Banks account for 20% of market cap. & over 70%
of trading
Accounted for 56% of market Cap prior to listing of ZAIN Iraq
Telecoms account for 69% of market cap.
significantly boosted by the listing of TASC in 2013,
& ZAIN-Iraq in 2015
12-month average daily turnover after a five-bear
market is under $0.5 million
20AFC Iraq Fund
CAPITAL MARKETS: EQUITIES
• Top chart : RSISUSD Index for the Iraq Stock Exchange in USD vs. total market capitalization (including
secondary market) Spikes in market cap. are to due to a significant new listings in 2013 & 2015. Data as
of May 2020
• Bottom chart: Regular market capitalization composition by market cap.
31/05/2020 Market Cap $m % of Market cap
Banking Sector 1,578 19.71%
Telecommunication Sector 5,509 68.80%
Industrial Sector 465 5.81%
Hotel Sector 283 3.53%
Services Sector 81 1.02%
Agricultural Sector 77 0.96%
Insurance Sector 9 0.11%
Investment Sector 5 0.07%
Total market 8,007
L12M avg daily turnover $m < 0.5
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Nov-12
M
ay-13
Nov-13
M
ay-14
Nov-14
M
ay-15
Nov-15
M
ay-16
Nov-16
M
ay-17
Nov-17
M
ay-18
Nov-18
M
ay-19
Nov-19
M
ay-20
RSISUSD Index Total Mkt Cap ($m) (RHS)
21. Trading is dominated by local retail investors,
however,
the total number of investors is tiny with active
traders probably < 5,000 and overall investors
probably < 35,000
Hardly any local institutional investors
Foreigners: The market opened to foreigners
in 2007
Handful of funds with AuM’s about $150
million account for the bulk of institutional
funds
Top chart shows Foreign inflows (in green) and
foreign outflows (red line) vs the RSISUSD
Index (grey line)
In a regional context & as a percentage of GDP
The ISX is tiny in both absolute and relative
terms
In the medium term the ISX should be line with
Iran and ultimately with Saudi Arabia (KSA)
21AFC Iraq Fund
CAPITAL MARKETS: EQUITIES
Country
Market
capitalization
May/Jun 2020
in $bn
GDP
2019e
in $bn
Market
capitalization
as % of GDP
KSA 2,191 779 281.2%
UAE 215 406 53.1%
Qatar 160 192 83.1%
Kuwait 92 138 66.9%
Egypt 36 302 11.7%
Jordan 18 44 40.7%
Iraq 10 192 5.2%
Iran 226 459 49.3%
Total 2,948 2,512 117.4%
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Foreign Inflows ($m)
Foreign Outflows ($m)
RSIsUSD Index (LHS)
• Top chart : RSISUSD Index for the Iraq Stock Exchange in USD vs. foreign
Inflows and outflows as end of May 2020
23. Over 85% of the currency in circulation is outside the
banking system
About 20% of adults have bank accounts
About 15% of employees whose wages are paid into an
account at a financial institution
About 4.2% of adults have a mobile money account
Lack of access to credit
Credit to the private sector at 9% of GDP vs. avg. 55% for
MENA
About 2% of adults have a credit card
About 4% of adults with outstanding housing loans vs over 8%
Small commercial banking sector
About 36% of private sector deposits & loans are with
commercial banks rest with public sector banks
Private sector deposit base about $10bn & total extended
loans $7bn (est.’s as end of 2019)
Over 70% of deposits are current accounts and demand
deposits (est.’s as end of 2019)
23AFC Iraq Fund
OPERATING LEVERAGE : BANKS IN A CASH ECONOMY
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Currency Issued Outside the Banking System
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Private Sector: Deposits & Loans
Private Sector Deposits ($ mln)
Credit to the Private Sector ($ mln)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Current Accounts & Demand Deposits
as % of Total Deposits
Source: Central Bank of Iraq, data in charts as of February 2020
24. The double whammy of the ISIS conflict and the collapse in oil prices in 2014-2016
led to
A decline in non-oil GDP of -3.9%, -14.4% & -0.6% in 2014, 2015 & 2016
The government had a cumulative deficit of around USD 41bn & cut all capital spending
The government accumulated significant arrears to the private sector in the process
The effects were disastrous for the private sector businesses at the receiving end of
the cut as
Finances deteriorated,
which in turn affected the quality of bank loans,
as these businesses accounted for the bulk of bank lending.
The banks’ leverage to the economy crushed their earnings as
Non-performing loans (NPL’s) increased
Loan growth declined & reversed
Deposit growth declined & reversed
24AFC Iraq Fund
OPERATING LEVERAGE : BANKS
25. Private sector loans peaked in 2015
NPL’s soared in 2015-2016 as the effects of the
capital spending cuts fed through to deteriorating
loan quality
Flight to safety as more of the private sector
borrowed from state banks instead
Trade finance for the private sector, once an engine
of growth, peaked in 2013. Declined significantly
due to investment cuts and the slowdown in
consumer spending.
Private sector deposits peaked in 2013.
Flight to safety as the private sector preferred state
banks after the pick-up in 2017 as the
expansionary effects of the recovery in oil prices
and the ending of conflict were being felt.
Source: Central Bank of Iraq, AFC (data in charts as of 2017)
25AFC Iraq Fund
OPERATING LEVERAGE : LEVERGE IN NEGATIVE ACTION
2010-2017
26. The new government is discarding the failed old economic model,
by focusing on the private sector to drive economic growth
Reforms would include deregulations, removing bureaucratic barriers,
By providing opportunities for the banking sector to fund the private sector’s
growth; and
Encourage the move away from cash through creating incentives for e-
payments for salaries, and government bills, and for using bank accounts
After the crisis years of 2014-2016, the conditions are in place for
the banking sector to take advantage of government incentives for
rapid banking adoption
Price to book multiple for the top-quality banks, after a five-year
brutal bear market, are at under 0.5 x structurally low book values
26AFC Iraq Fund
OPERATING LEVERAGE : KEY TO GROWING THE PRIVATE
SECTOR
28. Our Team
Thomas Hugger, CEO and Fund Manager,
has spent 27 years in private banking and has
been investing in Asian and African Frontier
Markets since 1993. He is the former
Managing Partner, CFO & COO of Leopard
Capital; and was previously a Managing
Director and Head of Portfolio Management
at LGT Bank in Hong Kong. Mr. Hugger was
the founding shareholder of one of the
largest brokerage companies in Bangladesh.
He is also a Certified Financial Investment
Analyst (CFIA) and Investment Adviser
(Switzerland) and a Certified European
Federation of Financial Analysts Societies
(EFFAS) Financial Analyst.
Lord Fraser of Corriegarth, Director, is a
graduate of St John's College, Oxford after
which he held numerous posts in the financial
sector both in the City of London and
elsewhere. He has previously held positions as;
CEO of Baring Securities in the UK, Chairman of
Equity Partners Ltd., a Bangladesh investment
bank, as well as Chairman of Bridge Securities,
a quoted Korean company, amongst other
posts. At present he is a global investor based
in London.
Dr. Marc Faber, is CEO, investment advisor
and fund manager of Marc Faber Limited. He
is the publisher of a widely read monthly
investment newsletter The Gloom, Boom
and Doom report which highlights global
investment opportunities. Dr. Faber is
respected around the world for his market
forecasts over the past three decades.
28AFC Iraq Fund
SHAREHOLDERS OF ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL LIMITED
29. Our Team
Ahmed Tabaqchali, CIO of AFC Iraq Fund, is an experienced Capital Markets professional
with over 25 years experiences in US and MENA markets. A Fellow at the Institute of
Regional & International Studies, an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the American University
of Iraq-Sulaimani. A board member of the Credit Bank of Iraq and of Capital Investments.
He is a former Executive Director of NBK Capital, the investment banking arm of the National
Bank of Kuwait as head of Brokerage. Prior to that a Managing Director and Head of
International Institutional Sales at WR Hambrecht + Co. based in London, New York and San
Francisco. This followed on from roles as a Managing Director at KeyBanc in London charged
with international sales, and before that Director & Head of Capital Markets & Institutional
Sales at Jefferies Int’l in London. He started his career at Dean Witter Int’l in London.
Ahmed has an M. Sc. in Mathematics from Oxford University in the UK, a B.Sc. (Hons, 1st
class) in Mathematics from Victoria University in New Zealand and a B.Sc. in Mathematics
from Canterbury University in New Zealand. Ahmed is an Iraqi & a British national.
Thomas Hugger, Fund Manager and Founder of Asia Frontier Capital, has spent 27 years in
private banking where he specialized in managing portfolios of listed and unlisted equities.
He has been investing in Asian and African Frontier Markets since 1993. He is the former
Managing Partner, CFO & COO of Leopard Capital; and was previously a Managing Director
and Head of Portfolio Management at LGT Bank in Hong Kong. He also held senior
investment positions at Bank Julius Baer in Zurich and Hong Kong.
He was the founding shareholder of one of the largest brokerage companies in Bangladesh.
He is a Certified Financial Investment Analyst (CFIA) and Investment Adviser (Switzerland)
and a Certified European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies (EFFAS) Financial Analyst.
29AFC Iraq Fund
DIRECTORS OF ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL (IRAQ) LIMITED
31. AFC IRAQ FUND DETAILS
AFC Iraq Fund
Legal Structure Open Ended Umbrella Funds (Master-Feeder Structure) Cayman Islands
Initial Investment Minimum US: USD 25,000 / Non-US: USD 10,000
Subsequent Investment Minimum US: USD 10,000 / Non-US: USD 1,000
Launch Date 26th June 2015
Subscription Frequency Monthly, 5 business days before month end
Redemption Monthly: Class D - 3 month notification, Class E - 6 month notification
Management Fee Class D: 1.8% / Class E: 1.5% p.a. of NAV
Performance Fee Class D: 18% / Class E: 15% (with high watermark)
Auditor Ernst & Young, Hong Kong
Legal Advisor
Ogier, Hong Kong
US: Morgan, Lewis & Bockius LLP, Boston
Custodian Iraq Depository Centre (IDC)
Fund Administrator Trident Fund Services, Hong Kong
Investment Manager Asia Frontier Investments Limited, Hong Kong
31
32. FUND PERFORMANCE – AFC IRAQ FUND
NAV as of 31st
July 2020
Class D Class E
NAV 592.27 601.38
Since Inception -40.77% -39.86%
Inception Date 26/06/2015 26/06/2015
Monthly Performances AFC Iraq Fund Class D
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2015 USD +0.00% -7.92% -5.20% -2.20% -7.00% -3.39% +0.56% -22.86%
2016 USD -9.71% -4.31% -5.85% -2.73% -8.59% +7.29% -1.92% -3.28% +0.55% +1.91% +0.53% +4.83% -20.50%
2017 USD +10.94% -0.14% -10.64% -2.65% -3.14% -5.94% +1.72% +1.17% -1.81% -2.61% +5.23% +1.75% -7.48%
2018 USD +6.33% +18.38% +0.46% -2.89% -2.16% -2.50% +1.04% -5.37% -7.09% -4.82% +5.27% -0.65% +3.60%
2019 USD -0.44% -7.48% -0.90% +3.74% +12.74% -0.85% -2.44% -0.10% +3.95% -2.04% +0.77% +0.78% +6.68%
2020 USD -4.75% -5.72% -7.11% -11.26% +10.17% +3.97% +11.40% -5.55%
Monthly Performances AFC Iraq Fund Class E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2015 USD +0.00% -7.89% -5.17% -2.18% -6.98% -3.37% +0.59% -22.74%
2016 USD -9.69% -4.29% -5.83% -2.71% -8.57% +7.32% -1.89% -3.25% +0.57% +1.94% +0.56% +4.86% -20.26%
2017 USD +10.97% -0.11% -10.61% -2.63% -3.12% -5.92% +1.75% +1.20% -1.79% -2.59% +5.26% +1.77% -7.20%
2018 USD +6.35% +18.41% +0.49% -2.86% -2.14% -2.48% +1.07% -5.35% -7.06% -4.80% +5.30% -0.63% +3.91%
2019 USD -0.42% -7.46% -0.88% +3.77% +12.77% -0.83% -2.42% -0.07% +3.97% -2.01% +0.79% +0.80% +7.00%
2020 USD -4.73% -5.70% -7.08% -11.23% +10.19% +3.99% +11.42% -5.39%
AFC Iraq Fund 32
33. FUND PERFORMANCE – AFC IRAQ FUND (NON-US)
NAV as of 31st
July 2020
Class D Class E
NAV 592.27 601.38
Since Inception -40.77% -39.86%
Inception Date 26/06/2015 26/06/2015
Monthly Performances AFC Iraq Fund (Non-US) Class D
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2015 USD +0.00% -7.92% -5.20% -2.20% -7.00% -3.39% +0.56% -22.86%
2016 USD -9.71% -4.31% -5.85% -2.73% -8.59% +7.29% -1.92% -3.28% +0.55% +1.91% +0.53% +4.83% -20.50%
2017 USD +10.94% -0.14% -10.64% -2.65% -3.14% -5.94% +1.72% +1.17% -1.81% -2.61% +5.23% +1.75% -7.48%
2018 USD +6.33% +18.38% +0.46% -2.89% -2.16% -2.50% +1.04% -5.37% -7.09% -4.82% +5.27% -0.65% +3.60%
2019 USD -0.44% -7.48% -0.90% +3.74% +12.74% -0.85% -2.44% -0.10% +3.95% -2.04% +0.77% +0.78% +6.68%
2020 USD -4.75% -5.72% -7.11% -11.26% +10.17% +3.97% +11.40% -5.55%
Monthly Performances AFC Iraq Fund (Non-US) Class E
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2015 USD +0.00% -7.89% -5.17% -2.18% -6.98% -3.37% +0.59% -22.74%
2016 USD -9.69% -4.29% -5.83% -2.71% -8.57% +7.32% -1.89% -3.25% +0.57% +1.94% +0.56% +4.86% -20.26%
2017 USD +10.97% -0.11% -10.61% -2.63% -3.12% -5.92% +1.75% +1.20% -1.79% -2.59% +5.26% +1.77% -7.20%
2018 USD +6.35% +18.41% +0.49% -2.86% -2.14% -2.48% +1.07% -5.35% -7.06% -4.80% +5.30% -0.63% +3.91%
2019 USD -0.42% -7.46% -0.88% +3.77% +12.77% -0.83% -2.42% -0.07% +3.97% -2.01% +0.79% +0.80% +7.00%
2020 USD -4.73% -5.70% -7.08% -11.23% +10.19% +3.99% +11.42% -5.39%
AFC Iraq Fund 33
34. FUND PERFORMANCE
AFC Iraq Fund 34
592
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100 Fund Performance (Net) – AFC Iraq Fund
AFC Iraq Fund USD (Net) Rabee USD Index
35. 35
SECTOR ALLOCATION
AFC Iraq Fund
51.6%
18.1% 16.1%
5.3%
1.7%
7.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sector Allocation – 31st July 2020
36. 36
COUNTRY ALLOCATION
AFC Iraq Fund
91.1%
1.1% 0.6%
7.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Exchange Country – 31st July 2020
37. 37LEOPARD ASIA FRONTIER FUND
TERMS AND CONDITIONS
AFC Umbrella Fund – AFC Iraq Fund
AFC Umbrella Fund (non US) – AFC Iraq Fund (non US)
Class D Class E
ISIN KYG0132A1682 KYG0132A1765
CUSIP G0132A168 G0132A176
Bloomberg AFCIRAQ KY AFCIRAE KY
Valoren 28883562 28883205
Reuters LP68336918 LP68336919
Class D Class E
ISIN KYG0133A1756 KYG0133A1830
CUSIP G0133A175 G0133A183
Bloomberg AFIRNUD KY AFIRNUE KY
Valoren 28570227 28881954
Reuters LP68336920 LP68336921
AFC IRAQ FUND SECURITIES NUMBERS
AFC Iraq Fund 37
38. 38
ASIA FRONTIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Investment Enquiries:
Email: iraq@asiafrontiercapital.com
Website: www.asiafrontiercapital.com
Hong Kong Office:
905, 9th Floor, Loon Kee Building, 267-275 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong
Tel: +852 3904 1015
Fax: +852 3904 1017
AFC Asia Frontier Fund
CONTACT INFORMATION
Asia Frontier Investments Limited is licensed by SFC Hong Kong for Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 9 (asset management)
* The representative of the Fund in Switzerland is ACOLIN Fund Services AG, succursale Geneve, 6 Cours de Rive, 1204 Geneva.
NPB Neue Privat Bank AG, Limmatquai 1 / am Bellevue, CH – 8024 Zürich, Switzerland is the Swiss Paying Agent. In Switzerland,
shares shall be distributed exclusively to qualified investors. The fund offering documents, articles of association and audited financial
statements can be obtained free of charge from the Representative. The place of performance with respect to shares distributed in or
from Switzerland is the registered office of the Representative.
39. DISCLAIMER
39
This Presentation is presented solely for purposes of discussion to assist prospective investors in determining whether they have a preliminary interest in the investment opportunity described herein. Under no circumstances is it to be
used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or other interest in AFC Iraq Fund, AFC Vietnam Fund, AFC Asia Frontier Fund, AFC Uzbekistan Fund, AFC Umbrella Fund or any other fund related
thereto (the “Fund”). Offers and sales of interests in the Fund will not be registered under the laws of any jurisdiction and will be made solely to qualified investors under all applicable laws. Potential investors must read the entire
Offering Memorandum delivered by the Fund and the disclosure in this Subscription Agreement. Nothing contained herein shall be deemed to be binding against, or to create any obligations or commitment on the part of, any potential
investor or the Asia Frontier Capital (the “Fund Sponsors”). The Fund Sponsors reserve the right, in their sole and absolute discretion with or without notice, to alter the terms or conditions of this Presentation and the Fund and/or to
alter or terminate the potential investment opportunity described herein. Potential investors are not to construe this Presentation as investment, legal or tax advice. Prior to making any potential investment, potential investors should
consult with their own legal, investment, accounting, regulatory, tax and other advisors to determine the consequences of the potential investment opportunity described herein and to arrive at an independent evaluation of such
potential investment opportunity.
By accepting this Presentation, the recipient agrees not to copy, distribute, discuss or otherwise disclose this Presentation or the contents hereof (including the potential investment opportunity described) or any other related
information provided by the Fund Sponsors or by its agents to any person other than employees of recipient evaluating this potential investment opportunity on recipient’s behalf without the prior written consent of the Fund Sponsors.
While the information contained herein has been obtained from various sources which the Fund Sponsors believe, but does not guarantee, to be reliable, the Fund Sponsors do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should
not be relied upon as such. No person has been authorized to give any information or make any representation or warranty regarding the subject matter hereof, either express or implied, and, if given or made in this Presentation, in
other materials or verbally, such information, representation or warranty cannot and should not be relied upon nor is any representation or warranty made as to the accuracy, content, suitability or completeness of the information,
analysis or conclusions or any information furnished in connection herewith contained in this Presentation and it is not to be relied upon as a substitute for independent review of the underlying documents, available due diligence
information and such other information as prospective investors may deem appropriate or prudent to review. The Fund Sponsors, their agents, their respective affiliates, and each of their respective shareholders, members, officers,
directors, managers, employees, counsel, advisors, consultants and agents (“Representatives”), expressly disclaim any and all liability for express or implied representations or warranties that may be contained in, or for omissions from
or inaccuracies in, this Presentation or any other oral or written communication transmitted or made available to a prospective investor or its Representatives. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, nothing contained herein is
or shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to any matter, including, without limitation, the future performance of the potential investment opportunity described herein. None of the Fund Sponsors, their agents, or their
respective Representatives is under any obligation to correct any inaccuracies or omissions in this Presentation. Each prospective investor will have the sole responsibility for verifying the accuracy of all information furnished in this
Presentation and in any other due diligence information furnished to a prospective investor, and each prospective investor shall have the sole responsibility for determining the value of the potential investment based on assumptions
said prospective investor believes to be reasonable. Representatives will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities, referred to in this document. There shall be no recourse against
the Fund Sponsors or any of their Representatives in the event of any errors or omissions in the information furnished, the methodology used, the calculations of values or conclusions. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing,
any historical information or information based on past performance included herein is for informational purposes only, has inherent limitations and is not intended to be a representation, warranty or guarantee of future performance.
All of the information presented herein is subject to change without notice. Actual returns to potential investors may be lower than the figures shown herein. Projected performance data shown constitutes “forward-looking
information” which is based on numerous assumptions and is speculative in nature. Actual results may vary significantly from the values and rates of return projected herein. There can no assurance that the Fund will realize its rate of
return objectives or return of investors’ capital. Potential investors should have the financial ability and willingness to accept the risks (including without limitation the risk of loss and lack of liquidity) characteristic of investments in
entities such as the Fund.
AN INVESTMENT IN THE FUND WILL NOT BE APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. INTERESTS IN THE FUND WILL INVOLVE A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK AND ARE INTENDED FOR SALE ONLY TO SOPHISTICATED INVESTORS WHO ARE CAPABLE OF
UNDERSTANDING AND ASSUMING THE RISKS INVOLVED. INVESTORS MAY LOSE ALL OR SUBSTANTIALLY ALL OF THEIR INVESTMENT.
THE INTERESTS IN THE FUND HAVE NOT BEEN REGISTERED UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED (THE “SECURITIES ACT”), OR THE APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY US. STATE OR ANY NON-U.S. JURISDICTION, AND
ARE BEING OFFERED AND SOLD IN RELIANCE ON EXEMPTIONS FROM THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS OF THE SECURITIES ACT AND ANY SUCH APPLICABLE LAWS. INTERESTS IN THE FUND HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED
BY THE US. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION OR BY THE SECURITIES REGULATORY AUTHORITY OF ANY STATE OR ANY OTHER RELEVANT JURISDICTION, NOR HAS ANY OTHER AUTHORITY OR COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE
ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THIS MEMORANDUM. ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS UNLAWFUL.
* The representative of the AFC Iraq Fund (non-US) in Switzerland is ACOLIN Fund Services AG, succursale Geneve, 6 Cours de Rive, 1204 Geneva. NPB Neue Privat Bank AG, Limmatquai 1 / am Bellevue, CH – 8024 Zürich, Switzerland is
the Swiss Paying Agent. In Switzerland, shares shall be distributed exclusively to qualified investors. The fund offering documents, articles of association and audited financial statements can be obtained free of charge from the
Representative. The place of performance with respect to shares distributed in or from Switzerland is the registered office of the Representative.
** The AFC Iraq Fund is registered for sale to investors in Switzerland (qualified investors), Hong Kong & UK (professional investors), Singapore (accredited investors) and USA (accredited investors and qualified purchasers)
*** By accessing information contained herein, users are deemed to be representing and warranting that they are either a Hong Kong Professional Investor or are observing the applicable laws and regulations of their relevant
jurisdictions.