1. China's inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF's SDR basket of reserve currencies will be an important symbolic step, but capital account liberalization may have a larger impact on markets.
2. Capital account liberalization since July could result in $3 trillion in capital inflows to China's bond and stock markets from global institutions, pension funds, and other investors.
3. Managing large capital inflows while maintaining a stable currency will pose a major challenge for Chinese authorities and the People's Bank of China in the short-term.
1. Money supply in India is regulated by the Reserve Bank of India through monetary policy to achieve objectives like price stability, full employment, and economic growth.
2. There is no single measure of money supply - it is measured using aggregates M1, M2, M3, and M4 which include currency in circulation and various types of bank deposits.
3. The growth in money supply must be higher than the growth in real national income to accommodate demand for money from income growth and a shrinking non-monetized sector of the economy.
This is a brief outline of the conference call held on 13 December 2010 with Mrs Srividhya Rajesh, Fund Manager, Sundaram Mutual Fund. The article covers Sundaram Mutual Fund views on Economy and Markets
The document provides details on selecting a portfolio of 10 BSE Sensex companies with a total investment of Rs. 10,00,000 based on analysis to identify stocks that will provide the best returns over 1-2 years. It describes performing fundamental analysis on company financials and market conditions, technical analysis of stock trends, and sector analysis. A portfolio is presented with investments in 8 companies totaling Rs. 10,00,000 that was selected after analyzing each company and sector trends like banking, using factors like growth prospects, government policies, macroeconomic indicators, and global economic conditions.
The document discusses three main topics:
1. The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India on July 1st, which will create a more efficient and broad tax system and base. In the near term some disruptions are expected but tax rates are unlikely to be inflationary.
2. Minutes from the RBI's June meeting suggest members are less hawkish and a possible 25 basis point rate cut in August as inflation is expected to remain below targets.
3. RBI has directed banks to initiate bankruptcy proceedings for 12 large corporate loan accounts totaling 25% of gross NPAs, which should help speed resolution while potentially impacting banks' profitability in the near term through higher provisions
This document provides an overview of monetary policy and its implementation in India. It discusses the history and trends in central banking, including the development of independent central banks. It outlines the objectives and tools of monetary policy in India, which is implemented by the Reserve Bank of India to maintain price stability and economic growth. The key tools discussed are open market operations, cash reserve ratio, statutory liquidity ratio, bank rate policy, credit ceilings, and repo/reverse repo rates.
The document discusses the performance of various assets in August 2021. It notes that major Indian stock indices Nifty and Sensex continued their upward momentum from April. Some investors are fearful while others are greedy in the current scenario. It also reports that SBI Mutual Fund's new fund offer of SBI Balanced Advantage Fund collected Rs 14,500 crore, making it the largest NFO in India so far. This signals growing acceptance of mutual funds among retail investors in India. The editorial discusses maintaining steady growth in investments by selling when the world becomes greedy and buying when fearful, as per Warren Buffett's advice. It asks what the current market situation implies for equity allocation.
1. Money supply in India is regulated by the Reserve Bank of India through monetary policy to achieve objectives like price stability, full employment, and economic growth.
2. There is no single measure of money supply - it is measured using aggregates M1, M2, M3, and M4 which include currency in circulation and various types of bank deposits.
3. The growth in money supply must be higher than the growth in real national income to accommodate demand for money from income growth and a shrinking non-monetized sector of the economy.
This is a brief outline of the conference call held on 13 December 2010 with Mrs Srividhya Rajesh, Fund Manager, Sundaram Mutual Fund. The article covers Sundaram Mutual Fund views on Economy and Markets
The document provides details on selecting a portfolio of 10 BSE Sensex companies with a total investment of Rs. 10,00,000 based on analysis to identify stocks that will provide the best returns over 1-2 years. It describes performing fundamental analysis on company financials and market conditions, technical analysis of stock trends, and sector analysis. A portfolio is presented with investments in 8 companies totaling Rs. 10,00,000 that was selected after analyzing each company and sector trends like banking, using factors like growth prospects, government policies, macroeconomic indicators, and global economic conditions.
The document discusses three main topics:
1. The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India on July 1st, which will create a more efficient and broad tax system and base. In the near term some disruptions are expected but tax rates are unlikely to be inflationary.
2. Minutes from the RBI's June meeting suggest members are less hawkish and a possible 25 basis point rate cut in August as inflation is expected to remain below targets.
3. RBI has directed banks to initiate bankruptcy proceedings for 12 large corporate loan accounts totaling 25% of gross NPAs, which should help speed resolution while potentially impacting banks' profitability in the near term through higher provisions
This document provides an overview of monetary policy and its implementation in India. It discusses the history and trends in central banking, including the development of independent central banks. It outlines the objectives and tools of monetary policy in India, which is implemented by the Reserve Bank of India to maintain price stability and economic growth. The key tools discussed are open market operations, cash reserve ratio, statutory liquidity ratio, bank rate policy, credit ceilings, and repo/reverse repo rates.
The document discusses the performance of various assets in August 2021. It notes that major Indian stock indices Nifty and Sensex continued their upward momentum from April. Some investors are fearful while others are greedy in the current scenario. It also reports that SBI Mutual Fund's new fund offer of SBI Balanced Advantage Fund collected Rs 14,500 crore, making it the largest NFO in India so far. This signals growing acceptance of mutual funds among retail investors in India. The editorial discusses maintaining steady growth in investments by selling when the world becomes greedy and buying when fearful, as per Warren Buffett's advice. It asks what the current market situation implies for equity allocation.
The document discusses central banking and the functions of central banks. It provides background on the origin and structure of central banking. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is described as the central bank of India, established in 1935. The RBI regulates monetary policy through various instruments like cash reserve ratios, statutory liquidity ratios, repo rates, and open market operations. It aims to stabilize prices, foreign exchange rates, and business cycles through its qualitative and quantitative credit control measures.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for August 2013. It discusses the impact of the Reserve Bank of India's recent liquidity tightening measures to support the rupee. This could prolong the period of higher interest rates and slower growth. It also examines the polarization developing within the stock market, with defensive sectors commanding higher valuations. Early results for the first quarter of the fiscal year show a slowdown in revenue growth for companies.
Indian economy current problems and future prospectsKulandaivelu GfK
This document provides an overview of the current state of the Indian economy and prospects for the future. It notes several paradoxes, including high fiscal deficits despite low inflation and interest rates. While the current account is in surplus and foreign reserves are high, this situation is unusual for a developing country which typically relies on capital inflows to finance domestic investment. The document compares India's economic integration and performance to China's, and argues India could experience sudden capital outflows if interest rates rise abroad. Overall it suggests the economy is in an unhealthy state and private investment may be crowded out by large government deficits.
The document provides an overview of monetary policy in India as conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It discusses the objectives of monetary policy such as maintaining price stability and economic growth. The key tools and instruments of monetary policy discussed include both quantitative methods (e.g. bank rate policy, open market operations, reserve requirements) and qualitative methods (e.g. margin requirements, credit directives, rationing). The effectiveness and limitations of these different policy tools are also outlined.
Demonetization is the discontinuation of a currency unit in circulation and replacing it with a new one. India demonetized 86% of its currency on November 8th, 2016 by removing Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes from circulation. The major reasons for India's demonetization were to tackle issues like shadow economy, counterfeit currency, and terror financing. Some rationales included boosting bank deposits and savings, improving monetary transmission to reduce lending rates, and supporting government finances through increased tax collections. However, demonetization also caused short-term inconvenience and cash shortages that impacted businesses and daily wage earners.
The document discusses the monetary and fiscal policies of India. It defines monetary policy as actions by the Reserve Bank of India to influence money supply, interest rates, and credit availability to achieve objectives like price stability and economic growth. It outlines the instruments of monetary policy like bank rate, cash reserve ratio, and open market operations. Fiscal policy relates to government spending and taxation and uses instruments like public expenditure, taxation, public debt, and deficit financing to promote growth, employment and welfare. The document provides details on these policies and their objectives, instruments, implementation and limitations.
Banking sector development and economic growth slides for presentation editedComrade Ibrahim Gani
This document summarizes a study on the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in Nigeria. It finds that while several banking reforms have been implemented, real sector access to financing remains difficult, with high interest rates discouraging bank borrowing. After reviewing theories and prior studies on the finance-growth nexus, the document describes the study's methodology, which uses cointegration and vector error-correction models to analyze annual data from 1970-2010 on GDP, financial indicators like credit to GDP ratios, and other variables. The results show a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. In particular, higher credit to the private sector, government expenditure, and interest rate spreads negatively impact GDP, while liquid liabilities and trade openness positively influence
Banks are able to increase the money supply through fractional reserve banking. When a customer deposits money in a bank, the bank is only required to keep a portion of those deposits as reserves, typically around 10%, and can lend out the remaining 90% to borrowers. This lending creates new money, as the amount lent is also spent and deposited elsewhere. Through this process of lending and redepositing, the original $100 deposit can end up creating $190 in the total money supply. The central bank regulates money supply by adjusting the reserve requirement percentage - increasing it decreases lending and money supply while decreasing it has the opposite effect.
The document provides information about the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is India's central bank. It was established in 1934 and frames monetary policy. Some key points:
- RBI is among the top 10 most influential central banks globally based on GDP and other economic factors.
- It aims to maintain price stability and promote growth. The RBI Governor and committee determine the repo rate to influence monetary conditions.
- Tools include repo rate, CRR, OMOs and more to target inflation and ensure adequate credit in the economy.
This document provides an overview of the money market and capital market in Bangladesh. It discusses key money market securities like treasury bills (T-bills), including the types of T-bills issued in Bangladesh, who can invest in them, how they are issued, and the secondary market. It also summarizes the history and development of the capital market in Bangladesh, the key participants like stock exchanges, types of capital market securities including bonds, mutual funds and debentures, as well as performance, problems, and prospects of the capital market. The document concludes with recommendations to further develop the capital and money markets in Bangladesh.
This document discusses the importance of investors being aware of a country's monetary policy when planning investments. It provides an overview of key monetary policy concepts like objectives, instruments used by the central bank like CRR, SLR, repo rate, and bank rate. It then illustrates the implications of changes in these instruments on three investment options - bank deposits, stock market, and government securities. The conclusion emphasizes that awareness of monetary policy benefits investors by allowing them to better anticipate economic conditions and make informed financial plans.
The document discusses money and banking systems. It defines money and describes the functions of money. It explains the different components that make up the money supply, including M-1 and M-2. It discusses various financial institutions like commercial banks and what services they provide. It then focuses on the financial system and central bank of Pakistan, the State Bank of Pakistan, outlining its roles and responsibilities, including overseeing monetary policy and using tools like reserve requirements, discount rates, and open market operations. It concludes by briefly defining the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Loan growth in India improved to 16.3% YoY in the most recent fortnight, while deposit growth moderated further to 13.8% YoY. As a consequence, the credit-deposit (CD) ratio remains elevated at 76.7%, near historical highs. In absolute terms, loans increased by INR792b in the latest fortnight compared to INR251b in the previous fortnight and INR449b a year ago. Deposits grew by INR379b compared to INR150b in the previous fortnight. The sustained credit growth and moderating deposit growth have kept the CD ratio elevated.
ICSA Civil Services (Prelims) GS Indian Economics Exam 2012: Lecture 8 by Pro...Dr. Subir Maitra
Monetary policy refers to actions taken by central banks to affect monetary conditions and financial variables to promote economic goals. It uses tools like open market operations, reserve requirements, and interest rates to influence the money supply and cost of credit. During recessions, monetary policy aims to stimulate demand by increasing money supply and lowering rates. During inflation, it aims to reduce spending by tightening money supply or raising rates. The objectives are economic stability, price stability, and growth.
OUR NEWSLETTER FOR AUGUST, 2021 IS ON STANDS. THIS NEWSLETTER MAGAZINE GOOD IDEA TO PLAN FOR FINANCIAL WELL BEING. THIS MAGAZINE ADDS VALUE TO ALL READERS !! THIS MAGAZINE IS COMPLIMENTARY TO ALL READERS !!
OUR JUNE, 2021, NEWSLETTER FOR AVID INVESTORS IS ON THE STANDS FOR JULY,2021 (ISSUE JUNE,2021). WOMEN AS INVESTORS IN OUR DOMESTIC MARKET. APART FROM OUR DOMESTIC MARKET INDICATORS, WE ALSO DEALT ON US MARKET AND EXTREMELY GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE MONTH OF JUNE,2021. WE ALSO COVERED ON WOMEN, AS INVESTORS, WHOSE PARTICIPATION LEVEL IS GROWING YEAR ON YEAR. HOST OF ISSUES, WHICH SHOULD BE OF INTEREST TO ALL AVID INVESTORS, DON'T NOT MISS READING THIS JUNE, 2021 NEWSLETTER !! HAPPY SURFING !
The document provides an overview of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), including its history, functions, and monetary policy tools. It establishes that RBI was established in 1935 as India's central bank and was nationalized in 1949. Its key functions include acting as a bank of issue, banker to the government, maintaining foreign exchange reserves, and using various quantitative and qualitative tools to regulate money supply and credit in the economy. These tools include bank rate, cash reserve ratio, statutory liquidity ratio, open market operations, and selective credit controls. The document also briefly outlines RBI's monetary policies and targets from 2005-2006 and the current monetary policy.
This presentation summarizes Bangladesh's monetary policy. It defines monetary policy as dealing with maintaining optimal money supply to ensure economic growth and stability. Bangladesh Bank aims to achieve 7% GDP growth and 6.2% inflation through selective easing strategies like lowering interest rates for productive sectors. Its tools include open market operations, required reserves, and interest rates. The goal is moderate inflation and sustainable growth. Challenges include non-monetized sectors, unorganized markets, and lack of an integrated interest rate structure.
1. The document analyzes China's decision to change the way it determines the central parity rate of the renminbi, questioning the widespread view that it was a currency devaluation aimed at boosting exports.
2. The move is better understood as part of China's ongoing efforts to reform its economy and reduce debt levels while avoiding a hard economic landing. A competitive devaluation makes little sense given China's policies to internationalize and increase global usage of the renminbi.
3. From an economic perspective, China's exports and imports have both been falling, with imports declining more sharply, leaving China with a large trade surplus. A currency devaluation would exacerbate political tensions with its trading partners and hurt China
The document discusses two trends in China that point to a better economic year in 2016: 1) the growth of China's domestic corporate bond market, which is helping fuel economic growth and improving the efficiency of allocating capital, and 2) signs of improving fundamentals in the property sector, such as increased property sales and developers' ability to issue bonds at lower costs. These trends are seen as mutually reinforcing and having encouraging implications for China's broader economy.
The document discusses central banking and the functions of central banks. It provides background on the origin and structure of central banking. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is described as the central bank of India, established in 1935. The RBI regulates monetary policy through various instruments like cash reserve ratios, statutory liquidity ratios, repo rates, and open market operations. It aims to stabilize prices, foreign exchange rates, and business cycles through its qualitative and quantitative credit control measures.
The document provides an economic and market outlook for August 2013. It discusses the impact of the Reserve Bank of India's recent liquidity tightening measures to support the rupee. This could prolong the period of higher interest rates and slower growth. It also examines the polarization developing within the stock market, with defensive sectors commanding higher valuations. Early results for the first quarter of the fiscal year show a slowdown in revenue growth for companies.
Indian economy current problems and future prospectsKulandaivelu GfK
This document provides an overview of the current state of the Indian economy and prospects for the future. It notes several paradoxes, including high fiscal deficits despite low inflation and interest rates. While the current account is in surplus and foreign reserves are high, this situation is unusual for a developing country which typically relies on capital inflows to finance domestic investment. The document compares India's economic integration and performance to China's, and argues India could experience sudden capital outflows if interest rates rise abroad. Overall it suggests the economy is in an unhealthy state and private investment may be crowded out by large government deficits.
The document provides an overview of monetary policy in India as conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It discusses the objectives of monetary policy such as maintaining price stability and economic growth. The key tools and instruments of monetary policy discussed include both quantitative methods (e.g. bank rate policy, open market operations, reserve requirements) and qualitative methods (e.g. margin requirements, credit directives, rationing). The effectiveness and limitations of these different policy tools are also outlined.
Demonetization is the discontinuation of a currency unit in circulation and replacing it with a new one. India demonetized 86% of its currency on November 8th, 2016 by removing Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes from circulation. The major reasons for India's demonetization were to tackle issues like shadow economy, counterfeit currency, and terror financing. Some rationales included boosting bank deposits and savings, improving monetary transmission to reduce lending rates, and supporting government finances through increased tax collections. However, demonetization also caused short-term inconvenience and cash shortages that impacted businesses and daily wage earners.
The document discusses the monetary and fiscal policies of India. It defines monetary policy as actions by the Reserve Bank of India to influence money supply, interest rates, and credit availability to achieve objectives like price stability and economic growth. It outlines the instruments of monetary policy like bank rate, cash reserve ratio, and open market operations. Fiscal policy relates to government spending and taxation and uses instruments like public expenditure, taxation, public debt, and deficit financing to promote growth, employment and welfare. The document provides details on these policies and their objectives, instruments, implementation and limitations.
Banking sector development and economic growth slides for presentation editedComrade Ibrahim Gani
This document summarizes a study on the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in Nigeria. It finds that while several banking reforms have been implemented, real sector access to financing remains difficult, with high interest rates discouraging bank borrowing. After reviewing theories and prior studies on the finance-growth nexus, the document describes the study's methodology, which uses cointegration and vector error-correction models to analyze annual data from 1970-2010 on GDP, financial indicators like credit to GDP ratios, and other variables. The results show a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. In particular, higher credit to the private sector, government expenditure, and interest rate spreads negatively impact GDP, while liquid liabilities and trade openness positively influence
Banks are able to increase the money supply through fractional reserve banking. When a customer deposits money in a bank, the bank is only required to keep a portion of those deposits as reserves, typically around 10%, and can lend out the remaining 90% to borrowers. This lending creates new money, as the amount lent is also spent and deposited elsewhere. Through this process of lending and redepositing, the original $100 deposit can end up creating $190 in the total money supply. The central bank regulates money supply by adjusting the reserve requirement percentage - increasing it decreases lending and money supply while decreasing it has the opposite effect.
The document provides information about the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is India's central bank. It was established in 1934 and frames monetary policy. Some key points:
- RBI is among the top 10 most influential central banks globally based on GDP and other economic factors.
- It aims to maintain price stability and promote growth. The RBI Governor and committee determine the repo rate to influence monetary conditions.
- Tools include repo rate, CRR, OMOs and more to target inflation and ensure adequate credit in the economy.
This document provides an overview of the money market and capital market in Bangladesh. It discusses key money market securities like treasury bills (T-bills), including the types of T-bills issued in Bangladesh, who can invest in them, how they are issued, and the secondary market. It also summarizes the history and development of the capital market in Bangladesh, the key participants like stock exchanges, types of capital market securities including bonds, mutual funds and debentures, as well as performance, problems, and prospects of the capital market. The document concludes with recommendations to further develop the capital and money markets in Bangladesh.
This document discusses the importance of investors being aware of a country's monetary policy when planning investments. It provides an overview of key monetary policy concepts like objectives, instruments used by the central bank like CRR, SLR, repo rate, and bank rate. It then illustrates the implications of changes in these instruments on three investment options - bank deposits, stock market, and government securities. The conclusion emphasizes that awareness of monetary policy benefits investors by allowing them to better anticipate economic conditions and make informed financial plans.
The document discusses money and banking systems. It defines money and describes the functions of money. It explains the different components that make up the money supply, including M-1 and M-2. It discusses various financial institutions like commercial banks and what services they provide. It then focuses on the financial system and central bank of Pakistan, the State Bank of Pakistan, outlining its roles and responsibilities, including overseeing monetary policy and using tools like reserve requirements, discount rates, and open market operations. It concludes by briefly defining the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Loan growth in India improved to 16.3% YoY in the most recent fortnight, while deposit growth moderated further to 13.8% YoY. As a consequence, the credit-deposit (CD) ratio remains elevated at 76.7%, near historical highs. In absolute terms, loans increased by INR792b in the latest fortnight compared to INR251b in the previous fortnight and INR449b a year ago. Deposits grew by INR379b compared to INR150b in the previous fortnight. The sustained credit growth and moderating deposit growth have kept the CD ratio elevated.
ICSA Civil Services (Prelims) GS Indian Economics Exam 2012: Lecture 8 by Pro...Dr. Subir Maitra
Monetary policy refers to actions taken by central banks to affect monetary conditions and financial variables to promote economic goals. It uses tools like open market operations, reserve requirements, and interest rates to influence the money supply and cost of credit. During recessions, monetary policy aims to stimulate demand by increasing money supply and lowering rates. During inflation, it aims to reduce spending by tightening money supply or raising rates. The objectives are economic stability, price stability, and growth.
OUR NEWSLETTER FOR AUGUST, 2021 IS ON STANDS. THIS NEWSLETTER MAGAZINE GOOD IDEA TO PLAN FOR FINANCIAL WELL BEING. THIS MAGAZINE ADDS VALUE TO ALL READERS !! THIS MAGAZINE IS COMPLIMENTARY TO ALL READERS !!
OUR JUNE, 2021, NEWSLETTER FOR AVID INVESTORS IS ON THE STANDS FOR JULY,2021 (ISSUE JUNE,2021). WOMEN AS INVESTORS IN OUR DOMESTIC MARKET. APART FROM OUR DOMESTIC MARKET INDICATORS, WE ALSO DEALT ON US MARKET AND EXTREMELY GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE MONTH OF JUNE,2021. WE ALSO COVERED ON WOMEN, AS INVESTORS, WHOSE PARTICIPATION LEVEL IS GROWING YEAR ON YEAR. HOST OF ISSUES, WHICH SHOULD BE OF INTEREST TO ALL AVID INVESTORS, DON'T NOT MISS READING THIS JUNE, 2021 NEWSLETTER !! HAPPY SURFING !
The document provides an overview of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), including its history, functions, and monetary policy tools. It establishes that RBI was established in 1935 as India's central bank and was nationalized in 1949. Its key functions include acting as a bank of issue, banker to the government, maintaining foreign exchange reserves, and using various quantitative and qualitative tools to regulate money supply and credit in the economy. These tools include bank rate, cash reserve ratio, statutory liquidity ratio, open market operations, and selective credit controls. The document also briefly outlines RBI's monetary policies and targets from 2005-2006 and the current monetary policy.
This presentation summarizes Bangladesh's monetary policy. It defines monetary policy as dealing with maintaining optimal money supply to ensure economic growth and stability. Bangladesh Bank aims to achieve 7% GDP growth and 6.2% inflation through selective easing strategies like lowering interest rates for productive sectors. Its tools include open market operations, required reserves, and interest rates. The goal is moderate inflation and sustainable growth. Challenges include non-monetized sectors, unorganized markets, and lack of an integrated interest rate structure.
1. The document analyzes China's decision to change the way it determines the central parity rate of the renminbi, questioning the widespread view that it was a currency devaluation aimed at boosting exports.
2. The move is better understood as part of China's ongoing efforts to reform its economy and reduce debt levels while avoiding a hard economic landing. A competitive devaluation makes little sense given China's policies to internationalize and increase global usage of the renminbi.
3. From an economic perspective, China's exports and imports have both been falling, with imports declining more sharply, leaving China with a large trade surplus. A currency devaluation would exacerbate political tensions with its trading partners and hurt China
The document discusses two trends in China that point to a better economic year in 2016: 1) the growth of China's domestic corporate bond market, which is helping fuel economic growth and improving the efficiency of allocating capital, and 2) signs of improving fundamentals in the property sector, such as increased property sales and developers' ability to issue bonds at lower costs. These trends are seen as mutually reinforcing and having encouraging implications for China's broader economy.
- The FOMC raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected but markets reacted negatively to the Fed's projections of faster tightening in 2017. Bond yields and the US dollar rose while stocks fell slightly.
- The Fed forecasts three 0.25% rate hikes in 2017, up from two previously predicted, and sees longer-run rates higher. However, Chair Yellen stressed gradual rate increases.
- Citi analysts maintain their view that fiscal stimulus effects will be later rather than sooner, and higher rates and a strong dollar may slow the economy, delaying further hikes in 2017. They keep a neutral outlook on US stocks and prefer high yield bonds.
UBSEmerging market currencies en 1193752themarkertlv
The document discusses adding a short position in the Israeli shekel (ILS) against the US dollar to the EM FX strategy. It believes policymakers in Israel would welcome a weaker shekel to boost inflation and exports based on current economic dynamics. Therefore, it sees a high likelihood of monetary policy measures to counteract recent appreciation of the ILS. While fundamental conditions point to long term ILS support, in the near term it thinks factors like dovish central bank communication and potential easing measures could weaken the shekel toward a target of USDILS 4.00 in coming months.
What if this is a "normal" bull market correction?jsadams33
CIO WM Research analysts discuss their views in an internal UBS blog. This document makes certain blog posts available to financial advisors for client distribution. The blog post discusses the authors' view that the current market decline is a normal bull market correction rather than the start of a bear market. It notes that bull markets have historically experienced multiple 10% or greater declines, and markets typically recover from such corrections within 3-6 months. The authors analyze past corrections and conclude the current one fits historical patterns, suggesting further gains in coming months.
- Loan and deposit growth for Indian banks improved in the recent fortnight, with loans up 18.3% and deposits up 14.4% year-over-year.
- The credit-deposit ratio remained stable at 76.8% while the statutory liquidity ratio also remained stable at 27.5%.
- Absolute loan amounts increased by INR641 billion while absolute deposit amounts grew by INR795 billion in the reported fortnight.
Neuberger Berman Wealth Management is opening up greater investment opportunities in China. China's equity market is the second largest in the world at nearly $6 trillion and represents only 20% of the MSCI EM index, despite accounting for 37% of global GDP. The MSCI is expected to include China A-shares, allowing over $100 billion to flow into the Chinese market. Additionally, Chinese equities currently trade at 10 times forward earnings, representing a compelling valuation opportunity. Neuberger Berman's local presence in Hong Kong and Shanghai allows them unique insights into the Chinese market.
Neuberger Berman Wealth Management is opening up greater investment opportunities in China. China's equity market is the second largest in the world at nearly $6 trillion and represents only 20% of the MSCI EM index, despite accounting for 37% of global GDP. The MSCI EM index is expected to include China A-shares, allowing over $100 billion to gradually flow into the Chinese market from passive and active investors. Additionally, Chinese equities currently represent a compelling valuation opportunity, trading at their lowest price-to-earnings ratio in 10 years. Neuberger Berman's local presence in Hong Kong and Shanghai allows them unique insights into the Chinese market.
Markets are in a consolidation mode. The upside is capped by geopolitical risk and Trump’s inability to make any economic reforms. But more importantly the direction of markets has been determined by economic momentum. From November last year, the rise in markets was largely due to the improving economic cycle. The consolidation now in evidence is due to economic momentum moderating.
Avoiding paralysis in the face of volatilityjsadams33
The document summarizes the views of UBS CIO WM Research analysts on their blog posts and discusses advice for investors based on their current investment positions. For investors fully invested in stocks, there is not much that can be done after a large market decline. For diversified portfolios, rebalancing may be needed to adjust exposures that have drifted from targets. Investors with cash should consider dollar cost averaging or market threshold-based plans to deploy the cash given the analysts' views that a diversified portfolio will outperform cash.
Markets have been engaged in a blame game, moving the focus from China, to oil, European banks and now “Brexit”. How valid are these “blame” factors and will the recent relief in market continue?
Flash Note - Doha talks with the IMF remain inconclusive - 26-May-2022.pdfssuserc31980
- Discussions between Pakistan and the IMF remained inconclusive as no agreement was reached on Pakistan's 7th review under the Extended Fund Facility program.
- While the IMF welcomed recent interest rate hikes by Pakistan, it emphasized the need to remove fuel and power subsidies and take other policy actions to achieve the program's objectives.
- Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves are declining and currently only cover around 1.5 months of imports, increasing external vulnerabilities as the IMF program remains stalled.
CIO WM Research analysts discuss sustainable investing views on an internal UBS blog. Some blog posts may be distributed to financial advisors for clients. The blog discusses preferring the term "sustainable investing" over "socially responsible investing" because the latter implies moral judgment. Sustainable investing encompasses exclusion, integration of ESG factors, and impact investing for financial return and social good. While socially responsible investing is often associated only with exclusion, sustainable investing focuses more on the growing integration and impact investing approaches.
Axis Direct presents daily derivatives report presenting recommendations based on technical analysis. For trading in derivatives visit https://simplehai.axisdirect.in/offerings/products/derivatives
Loan and deposit growth in Indian banks moderated in the recent fortnight. Loan growth declined to 17.6% YoY from 18.7% in the previous fortnight. Deposit growth also moderated to 13.3% YoY from 14.3%. As a result, the credit-deposit ratio declined to 76.5% from 77%. Investments improved marginally while the statutory liquidity ratio increased to 27.6% from 27.2%.
Axis Direct presents daily derivatives report presenting recommendations based on technical analysis. For trading in derivatives visit https://simplehai.axisdirect.in/offerings/products/derivatives
Axis Direct presents daily derivatives report presenting recommendations based on technical analysis. For trading in derivatives visit https://simplehai.axisdirect.in/offerings/products/derivatives
The document provides a summary of banking sector data in India for the fortnight ended May 4th, 2012 as released by the Reserve Bank of India. Some key points:
- Loan growth moderated slightly to 17.3% year-over-year, while deposit growth improved to 13.9% year-over-year.
- The credit-deposit ratio remained stable at 76.6%. Investments increased by INR237 billion compared to INR57 billion in the previous fortnight.
- Non-food credit growth was 16.5% year-over-year. Deposit growth improved compared to the previous fortnight.
- Outlook expects loan growth of 15-16%
Axis Direct presents daily derivatives report presenting recommendations based on technical analysis. For trading in derivatives visit https://simplehai.axisdirect.in/offerings/products/derivatives
The document summarizes the outlook for markets and investment strategies in 2016. It notes that markets will likely trade in a broad range with higher volatility as the US Federal Reserve normalizes policy by raising interest rates. While bond yields may rise, the effects on other assets are less clear. The document recommends remaining neutral on equities but upgrading views on Asia ex-Japan. It also suggests turning positive on emerging market high yield bonds which are less exposed to US rate hikes. Overall returns in 2016 are expected to be muted with increased need for agility and thematic investing ideas.
1. 1
1Q 2015
2015
AB FIXED INCOME INSIGHTS
BEYOND SDR: CAPITAL INFLOWS ARE
CHINA’S NEXT CHALLENGE
+ Hayden Briscoe, Director—Asia Pacific Fixed Income
The likely escalation this month of China’s currency to reserve status will be symbolically important
for the Chinese government. Behind the expected headlines and celebrations, however, other
developments may be about to have a bigger impact on investors.
China’s reforms are proceeding apace on so many fronts that
it’s easy, sometimes, to lose sight of the big picture. On
November 30, for example, the International Monetary Fund is
expected to admit the renminbi (RMB) into its basket of reserve
currencies, or Special Drawing Rights (SDR).
This will be a significant step in the internationalisation of the
currency and will further enhance the RMB’s status in the eyes
of global currency markets. We think it’s better understood,
however, as a detail on a broader canvas of government
reforms.
While the RMB’s inclusion in the SDR is likely to stimulate
capital inflows as central banks buy more of the currency for
their reserve accounts, the inclusion needs to be seen in the
context of the opening up of the country’s capital account,
which began in July.
In our view, the flow-on effects of capital account liberalisation
will have a much broader impact on China’s capital markets
and on investors in China than the inclusion of the RMB in
SDR per se. While SDR rebalancing by central banks could
account for flows of around US$42 billion, our research
suggests that capital account liberalisation as a whole could
account for flows closer to US$3 trillion.
We expect the long-term effects to be positive, but they could
cause disruption in markets and pose some challenges for
China’s financial authorities in the short-to-medium term.
US$3 TRILLION LOOKING FOR A HOME
In a little-publicised move, China announced in July that it
would allow central banks, sovereign wealth funds and
supranational organisations to access the Chinese bond
markets directly and without quotas. The move helped to
improve the RMB’s convertibility and make it eligible for
inclusion in the SDR.
We estimate that these institutions between them control
assets of US$30 trillion, and we are noticing increasing
evidence of their activity in China’s government bond market.
Based on our knowledge of their typical asset allocation
patterns, we expect them to invest a combined US$873 billion
in the government bond sector.
As the liberalisation of the capital account continues,
international pension plans will also begin making allocations to
China’s bond and equity markets. These investors use market
indices, so the indices will be adjusted to include Chinese
securities. This development has been in the wings for some
time and progressed earlier this month when MSCI announced
that it would add foreign-listed Chinese shares to one of its
emerging-market indices.
These developments, together with private and public
investment in risk assets (equities and corporate bonds),
comprise our total estimated flows of nearly US$3 trillion.
RMB STABILITY WILL BE THE KEY
While all this is positive for China in the long term, it does
create potential headaches for authorities in the immediate
future. To put this in perspective, investors have been worried
recently about capital outflows from China totalling around
US$250 billion.
These are in fact quite small for a country with foreign currency
reserves of US$3.5 trillion. The bigger question is, how will the
country cope with inflows of US$3 trillion? What will be the
impact on domestic liquidity, and how will the PBOC sterilise it?
The central bank, in our view, will face a major challenge in
managing these inflows. We expect that its response, in part,
will be to focus on managing the currency, as a stable
exchange rate would be a key factor in maintaining some
balance between capital inflows and outflows.