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Dr. ALEJANDRO SALADO - Vestofd and Buskerud University College, Norway
20th May 2015, 10th Conference on Systems of Systems Engineering
A Natural Consequence of Autonomy and Belonging in SoS
The Concept of
Abandonment
NOTE:
This presentation has been
modified with respect to the
original material in order to
comply with distribution
regulations.
SYSTEMS OF
SYSTEMS
Autonomy
Belonging
Connectivity
Diversity
Emergence
ABANDONMENT
Loss or degradation of service
Availability Abandonment
Uninteded Intended
Deterministic / stochastic behavior Emergent / complex behavior
Static / No evolution Dynamic / Evolutionary
Maintenance Re-arquitecture + Re-integration
+ Re-deployment
Degradation of service New / better competitors
Failure / Saturation Unwillingness
How do we MEASURE abandonment?
Risk indices
Product Asset Europ
ean
NOAA
source
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L1-001-M Magnetospheric Particle Sensor no yes 1 1 1 1 1
L1-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer shared no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor yes no 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer yes no 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer yes no 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-011-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-022-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-022-M Wide Angle Coronagraph shared yes 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph yes no 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
year
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIE
S
THREATS
Easy & Quick
Non-embedded
materialization
Assumes stochastic
behavior
Discrete Event Simulation
Product Asset Europ
ean
NOAA
source
19
92
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L1-001-M Magnetospheric Particle Sensor no yes 1 1 1 1 1
L1-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer shared no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor yes no 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer yes no 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer yes no 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-011-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-022-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-022-M Wide Angle Coronagraph shared yes 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph yes no 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
year
Maturity
Questionable sample size
Assumes stochastic
behavior
Embedded risk
materialization
Agent Based Modeling
Emergent behavior
Maturity of models
Demands high expertise
Embedded risk
materialization
Product Asset Europ
ean
NOAA
source
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L1-001-M Magnetospheric Particle Sensor no yes 1 1 1 1 1
L1-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer shared no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor yes no 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1
L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer yes no 1 1 1
L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer yes no 1 1 1
L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1
L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L1-011-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-022-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-022-M Wide Angle Coronagraph shared yes 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph yes no 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1
SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
year
If you can join,
you may
LEAVE!
Systems of systems engineering proverb
THANK YOU
alejandro.salado@hbv.no

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Abandonment: A natural consequence of autonomy and belonging in systems-of-systems

  • 1. Dr. ALEJANDRO SALADO - Vestofd and Buskerud University College, Norway 20th May 2015, 10th Conference on Systems of Systems Engineering A Natural Consequence of Autonomy and Belonging in SoS The Concept of Abandonment
  • 2. NOTE: This presentation has been modified with respect to the original material in order to comply with distribution regulations.
  • 3.
  • 6. Availability Abandonment Uninteded Intended Deterministic / stochastic behavior Emergent / complex behavior Static / No evolution Dynamic / Evolutionary Maintenance Re-arquitecture + Re-integration + Re-deployment Degradation of service New / better competitors Failure / Saturation Unwillingness
  • 7. How do we MEASURE abandonment?
  • 8. Risk indices Product Asset Europ ean NOAA source 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 L1-001-M Magnetospheric Particle Sensor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 L1-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer shared no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor yes no 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer yes no 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer yes no 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-011-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-022-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-022-M Wide Angle Coronagraph shared yes 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph yes no 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 year STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIE S THREATS Easy & Quick Non-embedded materialization Assumes stochastic behavior
  • 9. Discrete Event Simulation Product Asset Europ ean NOAA source 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 L1-001-M Magnetospheric Particle Sensor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 L1-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer shared no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor yes no 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer yes no 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer yes no 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-011-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-022-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-022-M Wide Angle Coronagraph shared yes 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph yes no 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 year Maturity Questionable sample size Assumes stochastic behavior Embedded risk materialization
  • 10. Agent Based Modeling Emergent behavior Maturity of models Demands high expertise Embedded risk materialization Product Asset Europ ean NOAA source 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 L1-001-M Magnetospheric Particle Sensor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 L1-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer shared no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-003-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-004-M High energy ion radiation monitor yes no 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-005-M Medium ion energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-006-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector yes no 1 1 1 L1-007-M Medium electron energy detector no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer yes no 1 1 1 L1-008-M 3-axis Fluxgate-magnetometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer yes no 1 1 1 L1-009-M Ion energy spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-010-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 L1-010-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L1-011-M Langmuir probe yes no 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L1-011-M Langmuir probe no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-021-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SU-022-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-022-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-022-M Wide Angle Coronagraph shared yes 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph yes no 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-032-M WA coronagraph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IP-001-M High energy particle spectrometer no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph no no 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-005-M Solar disk magnetograph yes no 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager shared no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager yes no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no yes 1 1 1 1 1 SU-015-M EUV solar disk imager no no 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 year
  • 11. If you can join, you may LEAVE! Systems of systems engineering proverb