This document analyzes the impact of fundamental factors on stock prices in India during normal and recessionary periods. It summarizes previous literature that found variables like earnings per share, price-earnings ratio, dividend per share, and book value significantly impacted stock prices. The study aims to compare how these fundamental factors influence stock prices for BSE 200 companies during normal vs. recession periods using panel data techniques. Preliminary results found earnings per share positively impacted prices during normal periods, while price-earnings ratio and growth negatively impacted prices during the recession. The study seeks to provide insights on investment decisions.
Impact of profitability, bank and macroeconomic factors on the market capital...inventionjournals
Panel data has been collected for 44 Middle Eastern banks that are operated during 2005 to 2014 in different Middle Eastern countries. Secondary data has been collected primarily through the DataStream database. The study is conducted to investigate the impact of profitability, bank and macroeconomic factors on the market capitalization of the Middle Eastern banks. Results of Hausman test have explained that fixed effect model is appropriate for the analysis. The result of multiple regression have shown that market capitalization has positive relationship with ROI while negative relationship with credit risk, inflation, and year dummy for the Middle Eastern banks. Furthermore, no relationship has been observed between market capitalization and the ROA, ROE, growth and exchange rate for the Middle Eastern banks.
Leverage, Free Cash Flow, and Interest Rates Influence of Stock Return and Fi...inventionjournals
This study aims to examine and analyze variable characteristics of the company such as leverage, free cash flow, and interest rates effect to stock return with intervening variable by financial performance. This research used a quantitative approach and a path analyzes. The object of this research is all companies in the manufacturing industries which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2009 until 2013. These samples are included 51 companies, with observation for five years and a total of observations are 255. These results showed that the direct effect between the leverage, free cash flow, and interest rate charge variables had no significant effect on stock return. For a direct effect, financial performance has a significant on the stock return and a indirect effect between financial performance, obtained leverage and free cash flow has not significant on stock return.
This paper examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on firm level equity premium. Following
the concept of macro-based risk factor model, we consider macroeconomic variable set of equity premium
determinant. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, money supply, industrial production, inflation
and foreign direct investment. The macroeconomic variables are not in control of the firm's management. These
are the external factors which affect the company as well as the overall market returns. The Macro-based
Multifactor Model is estimated for the whole sample. It is found that the market premium and the selected five
macroeconomic factors significantly affect the firm level equity premium of non-financial firms. Increase in
market premium, money supply, foreign direct investment and industrial production positively affect the firm
level equity premium while increase in interest rate and inflation negatively affects the firm level equity
premium. These findings are beneficial for the common shareholders, institutional investors and policy makers
to find more specific insight about the relationship between macroeconomic variables and equity premium of
non-financial sectors.
Determinants of Share Prices of listed Commercial Banks in Pakistaniosrjce
The focus of this paper is to identify the determinants of share prices for the listed commercial banks
in Karachi stock exchange over the period 2007-2013. One of the unique features of this paper is to find out the
impact of both internal and external factors on share price. Linear multiple regression analysis is used to
determine whether the selected independent variables have influence on share prices or not. The results indicate
that earning per share has more influence on share prices and it has positive and significant relationship with
share prices, book to market value ratio and interest rate have also significant but negative relation with share
prices while other variables (gross domestic product, price earnings ratio, dividend per share, leverage) have
no relationship with share prices
Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Market Performance in...Fakir Tajul Islam
This paper examines the institutional and macroeconomic
determinants of stock market performance using data in the last 20 years starting from 1995 to 2015. In this
paper, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation rate and Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) inflows were used as the proxy of macroeconomic determinants, whereas market capitalization, total
issued capital and market turnover of Dhaka Stock Exchange were the proxy of institutional determinants of
capital market performance.
Impact of profitability, bank and macroeconomic factors on the market capital...inventionjournals
Panel data has been collected for 44 Middle Eastern banks that are operated during 2005 to 2014 in different Middle Eastern countries. Secondary data has been collected primarily through the DataStream database. The study is conducted to investigate the impact of profitability, bank and macroeconomic factors on the market capitalization of the Middle Eastern banks. Results of Hausman test have explained that fixed effect model is appropriate for the analysis. The result of multiple regression have shown that market capitalization has positive relationship with ROI while negative relationship with credit risk, inflation, and year dummy for the Middle Eastern banks. Furthermore, no relationship has been observed between market capitalization and the ROA, ROE, growth and exchange rate for the Middle Eastern banks.
Leverage, Free Cash Flow, and Interest Rates Influence of Stock Return and Fi...inventionjournals
This study aims to examine and analyze variable characteristics of the company such as leverage, free cash flow, and interest rates effect to stock return with intervening variable by financial performance. This research used a quantitative approach and a path analyzes. The object of this research is all companies in the manufacturing industries which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2009 until 2013. These samples are included 51 companies, with observation for five years and a total of observations are 255. These results showed that the direct effect between the leverage, free cash flow, and interest rate charge variables had no significant effect on stock return. For a direct effect, financial performance has a significant on the stock return and a indirect effect between financial performance, obtained leverage and free cash flow has not significant on stock return.
This paper examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on firm level equity premium. Following
the concept of macro-based risk factor model, we consider macroeconomic variable set of equity premium
determinant. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, money supply, industrial production, inflation
and foreign direct investment. The macroeconomic variables are not in control of the firm's management. These
are the external factors which affect the company as well as the overall market returns. The Macro-based
Multifactor Model is estimated for the whole sample. It is found that the market premium and the selected five
macroeconomic factors significantly affect the firm level equity premium of non-financial firms. Increase in
market premium, money supply, foreign direct investment and industrial production positively affect the firm
level equity premium while increase in interest rate and inflation negatively affects the firm level equity
premium. These findings are beneficial for the common shareholders, institutional investors and policy makers
to find more specific insight about the relationship between macroeconomic variables and equity premium of
non-financial sectors.
Determinants of Share Prices of listed Commercial Banks in Pakistaniosrjce
The focus of this paper is to identify the determinants of share prices for the listed commercial banks
in Karachi stock exchange over the period 2007-2013. One of the unique features of this paper is to find out the
impact of both internal and external factors on share price. Linear multiple regression analysis is used to
determine whether the selected independent variables have influence on share prices or not. The results indicate
that earning per share has more influence on share prices and it has positive and significant relationship with
share prices, book to market value ratio and interest rate have also significant but negative relation with share
prices while other variables (gross domestic product, price earnings ratio, dividend per share, leverage) have
no relationship with share prices
Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Market Performance in...Fakir Tajul Islam
This paper examines the institutional and macroeconomic
determinants of stock market performance using data in the last 20 years starting from 1995 to 2015. In this
paper, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation rate and Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) inflows were used as the proxy of macroeconomic determinants, whereas market capitalization, total
issued capital and market turnover of Dhaka Stock Exchange were the proxy of institutional determinants of
capital market performance.
This study is about the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Bangladesh. Economic growth of Bangladesh is measured in terms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Least squared regression model has been employed considering exchange rate, export, import and inflation rate as independent variables and gross domestic product as the dependent variable in this study. The results reveal that export and import have significant positive impact on GDP growth rate. The other variables (exchange rate and inflation) are not significant, indicating that there exists no significant relationship among the variables. The findings will help the policy makers to make policies concerning the country’s economic growth to remain robust in the near future.
The bond market plays an important role as an alternative source of financing in the current economic growth. Indonesian government funding through the domestic bond market continues to grow, indicated by the issuance of bonds which tends to increase over time.
Determinants Factors of Stock Price in Oil and Gas Sector (Indonesia Stock Ex...Mercu Buana University
The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that affect the stock prices of oil and gas subsector companies (oil and gas). These factors are Oil Price, Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and Exchange Rate. The research design used is comparative causal research. Sampling in this research is done by using purposive sampling method technique. The analysis technique used is panel data regression analysis. The result of the study by using f-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price, DER and Exchange Rate simultaneously have a significant effect on Stock Price. While the result of the t-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price has a significant positive impact, while DER and Exchange Rate have a significant negative effect to a stock price of oil and gas listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2016.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES LISTE...IAEME Publication
An investment analysis is essential for the benefit of risk reduction and maximizes the gain. The investment analysis on stock market has two main approaches namely technical analysis and fundamental analysis. This study is focused on fundamental analysis of pharmaceutical companies listed in National Stock Exchange (NSE), which include selected five companies for a period of five years from 2011 to 2015. The fundamental analysis consists of three parts such as economic analysis, industry analysis and company analysis. The economic analysis consists of economic indicators which influence the security market like GDP, inflation, interest rate, foreign reserves, export and agricultural production for the study period.
Impact of Exchange rate volatility on FDI in PakistanIOSR Journals
The main objective of our study is to determine the relationship of FDI with exchange rate volatility exchange rate and inflation. There are large numbers of FDI determinants but exchange rate is one of reflective determinant. Exchange rate extremely volatile due to its frailty to adopt the changes in international and domestic investment. In our study, we use time series data for FDI, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate, government consumption and domestic credit from 1980 to 2011 for Pakistan. Different time series econometrics techniques (volatility analysis, normality test, PP, unit root test) have been used for analysis. Results demonstrate that exchange rate volatility and inflation deter FDI while exchange rate has positive relationship with it.
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether stock prices and exchange rates are related to each
other or not. Both the short term and the long term association between these variables are discovered. The study applies
monthly and quarterly data on two gulf countries, including Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirate (UAE)
for the period January 2008 to December 2009. The results of this study in the short term found that the exchange rate
influence positively on the stock market price index for United Arab Emirate and there is no association between them for
Kingdom Saudi Arabia. Moreover the study in the long term found that the exchange rate influence negatively on stock
market price index for the United Arab Emirate. While no association between these variables in Kingdom Saudi Arabia.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
This study is about the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Bangladesh. Economic growth of Bangladesh is measured in terms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Least squared regression model has been employed considering exchange rate, export, import and inflation rate as independent variables and gross domestic product as the dependent variable in this study. The results reveal that export and import have significant positive impact on GDP growth rate. The other variables (exchange rate and inflation) are not significant, indicating that there exists no significant relationship among the variables. The findings will help the policy makers to make policies concerning the country’s economic growth to remain robust in the near future.
The bond market plays an important role as an alternative source of financing in the current economic growth. Indonesian government funding through the domestic bond market continues to grow, indicated by the issuance of bonds which tends to increase over time.
Determinants Factors of Stock Price in Oil and Gas Sector (Indonesia Stock Ex...Mercu Buana University
The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that affect the stock prices of oil and gas subsector companies (oil and gas). These factors are Oil Price, Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and Exchange Rate. The research design used is comparative causal research. Sampling in this research is done by using purposive sampling method technique. The analysis technique used is panel data regression analysis. The result of the study by using f-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price, DER and Exchange Rate simultaneously have a significant effect on Stock Price. While the result of the t-statistic test shows that the variable of Oil Price has a significant positive impact, while DER and Exchange Rate have a significant negative effect to a stock price of oil and gas listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2016.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES LISTE...IAEME Publication
An investment analysis is essential for the benefit of risk reduction and maximizes the gain. The investment analysis on stock market has two main approaches namely technical analysis and fundamental analysis. This study is focused on fundamental analysis of pharmaceutical companies listed in National Stock Exchange (NSE), which include selected five companies for a period of five years from 2011 to 2015. The fundamental analysis consists of three parts such as economic analysis, industry analysis and company analysis. The economic analysis consists of economic indicators which influence the security market like GDP, inflation, interest rate, foreign reserves, export and agricultural production for the study period.
Impact of Exchange rate volatility on FDI in PakistanIOSR Journals
The main objective of our study is to determine the relationship of FDI with exchange rate volatility exchange rate and inflation. There are large numbers of FDI determinants but exchange rate is one of reflective determinant. Exchange rate extremely volatile due to its frailty to adopt the changes in international and domestic investment. In our study, we use time series data for FDI, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate, government consumption and domestic credit from 1980 to 2011 for Pakistan. Different time series econometrics techniques (volatility analysis, normality test, PP, unit root test) have been used for analysis. Results demonstrate that exchange rate volatility and inflation deter FDI while exchange rate has positive relationship with it.
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether stock prices and exchange rates are related to each
other or not. Both the short term and the long term association between these variables are discovered. The study applies
monthly and quarterly data on two gulf countries, including Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirate (UAE)
for the period January 2008 to December 2009. The results of this study in the short term found that the exchange rate
influence positively on the stock market price index for United Arab Emirate and there is no association between them for
Kingdom Saudi Arabia. Moreover the study in the long term found that the exchange rate influence negatively on stock
market price index for the United Arab Emirate. While no association between these variables in Kingdom Saudi Arabia.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
A Comparison of Key Determinants on Profitability of India’s Largest Public a...Rajveer Rawlin
The banking sector in India has come under the scanner following some key changes in monetary policy. With
the Reserve bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates to support the falling Indian currency the Rupee, the cost of
funds of banks has increased significantly. This could manifest itself in rising non-performing assets (NPAs) and
declining profitability. The profitability of banks is impacted by both internal and external factors. This paper is
an attempt to compare the key drivers of profits at India’s largest public and private sector banks. Bank specific
metrics and risk factors were important drivers of profits at both banks. Productivity measures were key drivers
of profits at India’s largest public sector bank SBI but had no effect on profits at India’s largest private sector
bank, HDFC bank. Asset usage efficiency measures were key determinants of profitability at HDFC bank but not
at SBI. The single most important determinant of SBI proved to be business per employee, a productivity
measure while advances and bank size which are traditional bank metrics were key drivers of profits at HDFC
bank. Managers at both banks and their share holders thus can look at these drivers to develop a broad
understanding of profitability at the two banks.
This study aims to examine and analyze the influence of internal factors (Net Profit Margin,
Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Asset Turn Over, and Price Earning Ratio) and macro economic
(Inflation and Interest Rate) on stock return. The object of research is companies from contruction, property
and real estate sector listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2017. The sample selection procedure is purposive
sampling.
Determinants of equity share prices of the listed company in dhaka stock exch...MD. Walid Hossain
This is the finance academic project report.This report prepare by MD. WALID HOSSAIN, Patuakhali science and technology University, Faculty of business administration and management. i think that is helpful for business studies students.
Analysis of Fundamental Factors, Foreign Exchange and Interest Rate on Stock ...inventionjournals
ABSTRACT: This study purpose was to determine the effect of fundamental factors (Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio, Quick Ratio, Total Assets Turn Over, Return on Equity, Price Earning Ratio) and macroeconomic factors (foreign exchange and interest rate) on stock return at manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for 2011-2013 periods. This study uses secondary data. Samples are 13 manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study results by F test shows that Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio, Quick Ratio, Total Assets Turn Over, and Return on Equity, Price Earning Ratio, Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates has significant effect on stock returns. T test results show that Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio, Quick Ratio, and Price Earning Ratio do not have significant effect on stock returns. While Total Asset Turn Over, Return on Equity, Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates have significant effect on stock returns.
Corporate Earnings, Dividend Payment, and Share Price Movements of Deposit Mo...Premier Publishers
This study sought to examine the dynamic relationship between corporate earnings, dividend payments and market prices of Nigerian deposit money banks’ shares. Time series and cross-sectional data covering seven years (2009-2015) were sourced from the selected banks published annual reports and accounts. Using both panel data regressions and granger causality tests, the static and dynamic relationships amongst corporate earnings, dividend information and market prices of shares were examined. Results from the study revealed that both corporate earnings and dividend payout have positive and significant impact on market price of shares. It was also discovered that corporate earnings and dividend information granger cause market prices of Nigerian banks shares. It is therefore recommended amongst others that management of Nigerian banks should place emphasis on profitability in all their operations; design appropriate dividend policy that should maximize stock returns and above all deposit money banks corporate managers should consider several other variables such as investment opportunities, available financing, tax and prevailing interest rates before declaring dividend to shareholders.
Stock Return Predictability with Financial Ratios: Evidence from PSX 100 Inde...Wasim Uddin
The objective of the current study is to investigate the stock return’s predictability by using financial ratios and control variable of PSX 100 Index companies during period from 2001-2014.
This study brings to an academia table the discussion on whether investment incentives are a
motivator or a gift and also explores the moderating effects of Investors‟ Perceptions on Stock market
Performance. By use of key word characters the search initially identified 93 published and unpublished research
papers and after a tentative scrutiny, 66 papers were selected in a random sampling manner in order to give the
birth to this discussion paper. Exploratory research design was used. The key objective of this article was to
investigate on the question as to whether incentives are a gift or a motivator. The study findings reveal than
investor perceptions affects stock market performance more than incentives do. The paper concludes that the
availability, adequacy, and timeliness of relevant information about marketable securities are important for both
pricing efficiency and market confidence. Investment incentives work well in an ideal world to promote
investment while investors‟ perceptions are relevant in the real world. Hence, stock market incentives were
concluded as being a gift and not a motivator for investors to make investment decisions at the stock market.
Macroeconomic Determinants of Investment Decision in Nigeria: IS-LM-BP-RP App...iosrjce
The paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of investment decision in Nigeria using IS-LMBP-RP
approach. The data series employed were gathered from various sources such as National Bureau of
Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and World Bank data base. The study employs the
theoretical propositions of IS-LM-BP-RP which was developed by Gray and Melone (2008). Considering the
backward bending of BP curve, the empirical results in the study confirm the validity of the backward bending of
BP curve in the Nigerian economy. The result equally indicates that if Mundell-Fleming model is used to
formulate policies in Nigeria, the risk factors will be significant enough to affect the validity of the policy. Based
on the policy responses to backward bending of BP curve analyzed in this paper, we recommend that moderate
expansionary monetary policy should be adopted and this will reduce the high risk premium brought about by
the high increase in the level of interest rate and thus increase the level of output.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Effect of Changes in Earning on Stock Prices of Listed Healthcare Sector of t...ijtsrd
Nowadays, information on stock price movement has become paramount in making an investment decision and a good knowledge of the factors that determine stock prices and the ability to predict stock prices are added advantages in the developing economies. Therefore, this study seeks to determine the impact of earnings on the stock price of healthcare firms in Nigeria. The study relied on the linear panel modeling approach of fixed effect and random effect while the Hausman test was applied for the model selection. The panel data set used for the study was sourced from the NSE annual fact book for the periods 2011 to 2020. The result of the random effect model estimated revealed that earnings per share EPS , dividend yield DDY and firm size FSZ have no significant impact on the stock price of healthcare firms in Nigeria. The only exception is book value per share BVPS which is positive and had a significant impact on the stock prices of healthcare firms in Nigeria at the 0.01 significant levels. This study, therefore, concludes that BVPS is the perfect predictor of stock price movement in the healthcare sector. As a result, the study recommends among other findings that Book Value per Share should be considered when making investment decisions in the healthcare firms in Nigeria. Aniedozie Obiamaka Mercy | Prof Alphonsus S. Anichebe | Dr. Emeka-Nwokeji, N. A "Effect of Changes in Earning on Stock Prices of Listed Healthcare Sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-4 , June 2022, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd50335.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/accounting-and-finance/50335/effect-of-changes-in-earning-on-stock-prices-of-listed-healthcare-sector-of-the-nigerian-stock-exchange/aniedozie-obiamaka-mercy
A study regarding analyzing recessionary impact on fundamental determinants of stock prices in india share market
1. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol.6, No.4, 2014
161
A Study regarding Analyzing Recessionary Impact on
Fundamental Determinants of Stock Prices in India share market
Ms. Sunita Sukhija
Assistant Professor, JCD Instiute of Business Management,
JCDV, SIRSA (Haryana)-125055
Email: sunita.sukhija@yahoo.com
Abstract: A global recession is a period of global economic slowdown. The Global Economic Slowdown had a
recessionary impact on the financial market leading to decline in share prices and indices in India. A significant
decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. A global recession is a period of global
economic slowdown. The objective of this paper is to compare the impact of fundamental factors on Stock prices
of BSE 200 companies in normal period and recession period. A sample of eighty companies has been selected
for the purpose of the study. The panel data techniques, viz. Fixed Effects model and Random Effects model
have been employed to investigate the objective. The empirical results reveal that Earning per Share has positive
and significant impact on the share price at five percent level in the normal period (pre recession period). PER
has positive and significant impact while Growth has a negative and significant impact on the share price at five
percent level during recession period. While PER and ROCE have positive and significant impact on the share
price at five and ten percent level. The variable BV, DPS, EPS, DPR and Growth have a positive relationship
with share price and statistically insignificant in post recession period.
Key Words : Recession, Fundamental, Fixed Effect Model, Random Effect Model, Share Price.
JEL Classifications: C23, G30, G32.
1. Introduction
The global recession of 2008-2009 brought a great amount of attention to the risky investment strategies used by
many large financial institutions, along with the truly global nature of the financial system. As a result of such a
wide-spread global recession, the economies of virtually all the world's developed and developing nations
suffered extreme set-backs and numerous government policies were implemented to help prevent a similar future
financial crisis. A recession is a situation in which a nation's gross domestic product or output, a negative growth
of at least two consecutive quarters or maintain six months. The decline in business takes more than just a few
months. This decrease extends also from eleven months to possibly up to two years. A global recession is a
period of global economic slowdown. The basic cause of the crisis was largely an unregulated environment,
mortgage lending to subprime borrowers. Since the borrowers did not have adequate repaying capacity and also
because subprime borrowing had to pay two-to-three percentage points higher rate of interest and they have a
history of default, the situation became worse. The Global Economic Slowdown had a recessionary impact on
the financial market leading to decline in share prices and indices in India. A significant decline in activity across
the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income
and wholesale-retail trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative
economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP); although the National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession. Although at one time
it was thought that this crisis would not affect the Indian economy, later it was found that the Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) started drying up and this affected investment in the Indian economy. In the recovery phase the
economy has adopted expansionary fiscal policy to accelerate aggregate demand. In this respect RBI has adopted
a contractionary monetary policy overcome the crisis which led to higher interest rate on bank deposits. It is
considered by many economists to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It
contributed to the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer Wealth estimated in the trillions of U.S.
dollars, substantial financial commitments incurred by governments, and a significant decline in economic
activity. The collapse of a global housing bubble, which peaked in the U.S. in 2006, caused the values of
securities tied to real estate pricing to plummet thereafter, damaging financial institutions globally. Questions
regarding bank solvency, declines in credit availability, and damaged investor confidence had an impact on
global stock markets, where securities suffered large losses during late 2008 and early 2009.
Literature Review
The link between fundamental factors and share price changes has been extensively investigated in the financial
literature. Sen and Ray (2003) examined the key determinants of stock price in India. The study is based upon
the stocks compromising the BSE index over a period 1988-2000. The empirical study revealed dividend payout
2. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol.6, No.4, 2014
162
was an important factor affecting stock prices. Further, they found earning per share has a very weak impact on
the share prices. The study explored one of the crucial factor dividend payout ratios having impact on Indian
stock price. Dutta (2004) had made a survey on three groups viz; individuals, brokers and financial institutions
to study the impact of micro and macro factors on share price. Most of the individual and brokers considered the
role of random elements in share price as very important in post reform period. Mehta &Turan (2005)
identified market capitalisation, market price to book value ratio and price-earning ratio as major factors
influencing share prices by examining share prices of the firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Sharma
and Singh (2006) used data from 160 Indian firms between 2001 and 2005 and found that earnings per share,
price-earnings ratio, dividend per share, dividend coverage, dividend payout, book value per share, and firm size
are the determinants of share prices. They revealed that Book value and Earnings are important indicators of
market price of share as they are an indicator of the good financial health of the companies. Dividend per share is
most significant variable of market price of share, which indicates that the companies should use a liberal
dividend policy to attract the primary as well as secondary market. Price-earnings ratio also explained the
investors’ anticipate about the growth in the firm’s earnings. Srivastava (2010) concluded that emerging
economies like India in long term are more affected by domestic macro economic factors than global factors.
The main domestic macroeconomic factors affecting the stock market in long run are industrial production;
wholesale price index and interest rate. Sharma (2011) examined the empirical relationship between equity
share prices of different industry groups and explanatory variables such as book value per share, dividend per
share, earning per share, price earnings ratio, dividend yield, dividend payout, size in terms of sale and net worth
for the period 1993-2008. The results revealed that earning per share, dividend per share and book value per
share has significant impact on the equity price of different industry groups in India. Nisa (2011) in her research
on Karachi Stock Exchange used the following variable: P/E Ratio, Net Profit after Tax, Inflation, DPS, GDP
and Annual Turnover as stock price determinant. Aurangzeb (2012) presented a study from the period of 1997
to 2010 of 3 South Asian countries namely, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka. Regression results indicate that
foreign direct investment and exchange rate have significant positive impact on performance of stock market in
South Asian countries while; interest rate has negative and significant impact on performance of stock market in
South Asia. Results also indicate the negative but insignificant impact of inflation on stock market performance
in South Asia. Malhotra &Tandon (2013) have presented a study with an attempt to determine the factors that
influence stock prices in the context of National Stock Exchange (NSE) 100 companies. A sample of 95
companies was selected for the period 2007-12 and using linear regression model the results indicate that firms’
book value, earning per share and price-earnings ratio are having a significant positive association with firm’s
stock price while dividend yield is having a significant inverse association with the market price of the firm’s
stock. Uddin, Rahman, Hossain (2013) this study has put a great stride to identify what determines the share
prices of stock market focusing exclusively on financial sector of Bangladesh. Data have been collected from
companies like Bank, Insurance, Leasing Companies associated with financial sector ranging from 2005 to 2011
from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Some pertinent variables like Net Profit after Tax (NPAT), Price earnings
ratio (P/E), Net asset value (NAV), Earnings per share (EPS) were selected from previous literature for deciding
stock price (SP) determinants. A regression model along with some descriptive statistical tools was applied using
SPSS. Findings show that Earnings per share (EPS), Net asset value (NAV), Net profit after tax (NPAT) and
Price earnings ratio (P/E) have strong relationship with stock prices.
2. Objective of the study
1. To compare the impact of fundamental factors on Stock prices of BSE 200 companies in normal period
and recession period.
2. To suggest the measures for making decision regarding investment in shares and securities for the
benefit of investors.
3.1 Hypothesis of the study:
H03 - There is nosignificant impact of fundamental factors on stock prices during normal and recession period.
3.2 Research Methodology
Empirical research design has been used to achieve the objectives.
3.3 Scope of study
3.3.1 Fundamental Factors
Eight Key variables such as: Book Value Per Share (BV), Dividend Per Share (DPS), Earnings Per Share (EPS),
Cover (C), Payout Ratio (P), Price Earning (P/E), Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and Growth (G) have
been included in the study.
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3.3.2 Sample Profile
To examine the hypothesis, the study has used secondary data. The sample was drawn from the companies listed
on the Bombay Stock exchange. The yearly data has been used on the concerning aspect, a sample of eighty
companies was selected for the purpose of the study with the fact that the companies have been listed
continuously during the study period.
3.3.3 Time period
Time period of the study will be for thirteen financial years i.e. from 1st April 2000 to 31st March 2013. To
study the impact of recession on Stock price and key variables during the recession period, the whole study
period has been divided into three parts. The first part includes the normal period of seven years from 1stapril
2000 to 31st march 2007. The second part comprises the recession period of two years from 1stapril 2007 to 31st
march 2009 and third part consist of the normal period of four years starts from 1stapril 2009 up to 31st march
2013.
3.4 Data Collection
The data relating to the companies which are listed in BSE 200 has been collected on yearly basis from updated
version ‘PROWESS 4’ database of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy and Bombay Stock Exchange
Official Directory.
2.5 Model Specification
The panel data techniques, viz. Fixed Effects model and Random Effects model have been employed to
investigate the objective.
3.5.1 Fixed Effect Model - This model allows for heterogeneity or individually among 80 companies by
allowing to have its own intercept value. Another term fixed effect is due to the fact that although the intercept
may differ across different companies but intercept does not vary over time, it is time invariant.To take into
account the differing intercepts, one can use dummy variables. The FEM using dummy variables is known as the
least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) model. FEM is appropriate in situations where the individual- specific
intercept may be correlated with one or more regressors.
3.5.2 Random Effect Model - In this model, all the 80 companies have a common mean value for the intercept.
In ECM it is assumed that the intercept of an individual unit is a random drawing from a much larger population
with a constant mean value. The individual intercept is then expressed as a deviation from this constant mean
value. One advantage of ECM over FEM is that it is economical in degrees of freedom, as we do not have to
estimate N cross-sectional intercepts. We need only to estimate the mean value of the intercept and its
variance.ECM is appropriate in situations where the (random) intercept of each cross-sectional unit is
uncorrelated with the regressors.
3.5.3 Hausman Test - This test is used to check which model (fixed effect or random effect model) is suitable to
use. If p value found statistically significant, then fixed effect model will be used otherwise random effect model
will be suitable. If correlated (H0 is rejected), a random effect model produces biased estimators, violating one
of the Gauss-Markov assumptions; so a fixed effect model is preferred.
4. Empirical Results
To examine the determinants of stock prices in India, the panel data techniques have been employed. Table 4.1
presents the estimate of fixed effects as well as random effects models for the normal period. Our primary
concern here is that the choice between fixed effects and random effects models. To select appropriate model for
our empirical analysis we conducted Hausman specification test. The results of Hausman test revealed that the
difference in coefficients between fixed effects and random effects is systematic and provided evidence in favour
of random effects model for normal period.
Table 4.1 displays the results of panel data regression for the normal period from 1st
April 2000 to 31st march
2007. The results of Hausman test revealed that the difference in coefficients between fixed effects and random
effects is systematic and provided evidence in favour of random effects model for normal period. The empirical
results reveal that the EPS has positive and significant impact while COVER has a negative and significant
impact on the share price at five percent level. The variable BV, PER, and ROCE have a positive relationship
with share price and statistically insignificant. However, the DPS, DPR and Growth have a negative impact on
share price and are insignificant. The study results suggest that Earning per share and COVER are being the
important determinants of share prices for the normal period.
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Table 4.1 Fundamental Determinants of Equity Share Price of all sample Companies in Normal Period
(2000-2007)
Variables Fixed Effect Model
Coefficient t-value
Random Effect Model
Coefficient t-value
Constant 649.585 8.0016 667.161 6.5761
Book Value 0.3457 0.7866 0.2646 0.6294
DPS -6.1463 -0.6489 -6.0763 -0.7033
EPS 1.679 0.8562 1.044** 0.5541
Cover -1.817*** -1.7074 -1.5440*** -1.6172
DPR -60.967 -0.7495 -53.834 -0.6771
PER 0.4070 0.9932 0.3287 0.8200
ROCE 3.3597 0.9454 1.5589 0.4899
Growth -0.1468 -1.1470 -0.1235 -0.9784
Hausman test
(p-value) 6.413806 .6010
*significant at 1 percent level of significance,** significant at 5 percent level of significance,
*** significant at 10 percent level of significance
Source : All the numerical figures of table are calculated from eviews6 version
Table 4.2 exhibits the results of panel data regression for the recession period from 1st
April 2007 to 31st march
2009. The results of Hausman test revealed that the difference in coefficients between fixed effects and random
effects is systematic and provided evidence in favour of fixed effects model for recession period. The empirical
results reveal that the PERhas positive and significant impact while Growth has a negative and significant impact
on the share price at five percent level. The variable EPS and COVER have a positive relationship with share
price and statistically insignificant. However, the DPS, BV, DPR and ROCE have a negative impact on share
price and are insignificant. The study results suggest that Price Earning ratio and Growth are being the important
determinants of share prices for the recession period.
Table 4.2 Fundamental Determinants of Share Prices of all sample Companies during the Recession
Period (2007-2009)
Variables Fixed Effect Model
Coefficient t-value
Random Effect Model
Coefficient t-value
Constant 506.3989 1.789470 522.0392 3.068427
Book Value -1.381127 -1.074433 -0.292430 -0.414447
DPS -12.44184 -0.706007 -9.074563 -0.746753
EPS 2.699866 0.939573 1.667440 0.842618
Cover 0.883109 0.409890 0.293948 0.235601
DPR -156.6743 -0.522456 225.7937 0.991496
PER 17.6432*** 3.904553 7.45248** 2.517443
ROCE -0.037996 -0.005092 -2.340172 -0.530513
Growth -0.43768** -2.252426 -0.36117** -2.070206
Hausman test (p-value) 15.204454 0.0500
*significant at 1 percent level of significance,** significant at 5 percent level of significance,
*** significant at 10 percent level of significance
Source : All the numerical figures of table are calculated from eviews6 version
Table 4.3 reveals the results of panel data regression for the recession period from 1stapril 2009 to 31st march
2013. The results of Hausman test revealed that the difference in coefficients between fixed effects and random
effects is systematic and provided evidence in favour of random effects model for normal period. The empirical
results reveal that the PERand ROCE have positive and significant impact on the share price at five and ten
percent level. The variable BV, DPS,EPS, DPR and Growth have a positive relationship with share price and
statistically insignificant. However, the Cover has a negative impact on share price and are insignificant. The
study results suggest that Price Earning ratio and ROCE are being the important determinants of share prices for
the Normal period.
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Table 4.3 Fundamental Determinants of Share Prices of all sample Companies in the Normal Period
(2009-2013)
Variables FIXED Effect Model
Coefficient t-value
Random Effect Model
Coefficient t-value
Constant 602.2941 3.741329 704.1956 3.741329
Book Value 0.399051 0.528184 0.023015 0.528184
DPS 4.939547 0.370476 6.269397 0.370476
EPS 0.277998 0.110864 0.516771 0.110864
Cover -0.863628 -0.616216 -0.698465 -0.616216
DPR -5.207140 -0.023062 61.92135 -0.023062
PER 3.20400** 2.580466 3.09887** 2.580466
ROCE 8.74226 1.916682 5.13805*** 1.916682
Growth 0.214224 0.113427 0.571456 0.113427
Hausman test (p-
value)
10.428459 0.2362
***significant at 1 percent level of significance,** significant at 5 percent level of
significance,
* significant at 10 percent level of significance
Source : All the numerical figures of table are calculated from eviews6 version
Table 4.4 exhibits the results for the normal as well as recession period. The normal period has been divided in
to two parts, the first part consist the period from 1st
April 2000 to 31st march 2007. In this period, the results of
Hausman test revealed that the difference in coefficients between fixed effects and random effects is systematic
and provided evidence in favour of random effects model. The relationship between dependent and independent
is more than 60 percent, it means 61% of the variation in share price can be explained by the determinants taken
under study in normal period. Earning per Share has positive and significant impact on the share price at five
percent level. The variable Cover has a negative impact on share price and significant at ten percent level.
Table: 4.4 CompiledPanel Data Regression Analysis of the Determinants of Market Share Price for
Normal and Recession Period (2000-2013)
Normal period Recession Period
Time duration 01-04-2000 to 31-03-2007 01-04-2009 to 31-03-2013 01-04-2007 to 31-03-2009
Model
Specification
Random Effect Model Random Effect Model Fixed Effect Model
R-Square 61% 88% 56%
F-Value 5.148(0.00) 19.510(0.00) 8.0073(0.00)
Book Value 0.2646 0.023015 -1.381127
DPS -6.0763 6.269397 -12.44184
EPS 1.044** 0.516771 2.699866
Cover -1.544*** -0.698465 0.883109
DPR -53.834 61.92135 -156.6743
PER 0.3287 3.09887** 17.6432***
ROCE 1.5589 5.13805*** -0.037996
Growth -0.1235 0.571456 -0.43768**
Hausman Test 6.413 (.601) 10.428 (0.236) 15.204** (.0500)
*significant at 1 percent level of significance,** significant at 5 percent level of significance,
*** significant at 10 percent level of significance
Source : All the numerical figures of table are calculated from eviews6 version
However, the variables book value, PER and ROCE have a positive relationship with share price and are
insignificant. The variable DPS, DPR and Growth have a negative impact on share price and is insignificant.The
second part of normal period contains the period from 01-04-2009 to 31-03-2013.The results of Hausman test
revealed that the difference in coefficients between fixed effects and random effects is systematic and provided
evidence in favour of random effects model for normal period.The relationship between dependent and
independent is more than 60 percent and very high , it means 88% of the variation in share price can be
explained by the determinants taken under study in normal period.The empirical results reveal that the PERand
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ROCE have positive and significant impact on the share price at five and ten percent level. The variable BV,
DPS, EPS, DPR and Growth have a positive relationship with share price and statistically insignificant.
However, the Cover has a negative impact on share price and are insignificant. In the recession period from
1st
april 2007 to 31st
march 2009. The results of Hausman test revealed that the difference in coefficients between
fixed effects and random effects is systematic and provided evidence in favour of fixed effects model for
recession period.The relationship between dependent and independent is less than 60 percent, it means 56% of
the variation in share price can be explained by the determinants taken under study in recession period.The
empirical results reveal that the PERhas positive and significant impact while Growth has a negative and
significant impact on the share price at five percent level. The variable EPS and COVER have a positive
relationship with share price and statistically insignificant. However, the DPS, BV, DPR and ROCE have a
negative impact on share price and are insignificant. In the nutshell, recession has impact on relationship of
independent and dependent variables, model specification and variables also.
Table: 4.5 Compiled Regression Analysis of the Determinants of Market Share Price for the whole period
(2000-2013)
Source : All the numerical figures of table are calculated from eviews6 version
It is evident from Table 4.5 that the results of multiple regression model supports the panel data results. The
relationship between dependent and independent is more than 60 percent, it means the variation in share price
can be explained by the determinants taken under study in normal period. But in Recession period the
relationship is less than 60 percent i.e. 48% and 41% in the year 2007-08 and 2008-09 respectively. It means
recession has impact on relationship of independent and dependent variables, but up to some extent and not very
high. Again in normal period from from 01-04-2009 to 31-03-2013, R square starts increasing and more than 60
percent.
5. Acceptance/ Rejection of Null Hypothesis
On the basis of findings of the study the Null Hypothesis (Ho) i.e. there is nosignificant impact of fundamental
factors on stock prices during normal and recession period. And Alternative Hypothesis (Ha) i.e. there is
nosignificant impact of fundamental factors on stock prices during normal and recession period. On the basis of
Findings of the study the null hypothesis is rejected and Alternative hypothesis is accepted.
6. Conclusions
In the normal period from 01-04-2000 to 31-03-2007, Earning per Share has positive and significant impact on
the share price at five percent level. The variable Cover has a negative impact on share price and significant at
ten percent level. However, the variables book value, PER and ROCE have a positive relationship with share
price and are insignificant. The variable DPS, DPR and Growth have a negative impact on share price and is
Year R-
SQUARE
F-VALUE T-TEST
1% 5% 10%
2000-01 59%
0.55(0.081)
(DPS) EPS (COVER&
GROWTH)
2001-02 76% 0.73(0.063) -------- BV & ROCE (DPS) (COVER)
2002-03 68% 0.64(0.038) -------- GROWTH (COVER) EPS (DPS)
2003-04 49% 0.37(0.031) -------- EPS(DPS&COVER) GROWTH
2004-05 52%
1.15(0.039)
-------- EPS & GROWTH
(BV,COVER,DPS)
(ROCE)
2005-06 49% 0.26(0.076) ------- EPS (ROCE) (DPS & COVER)
2006-07 65%
0.82(0.081)
-------- GROWTH (DPS, COVER
,ROCE)
EPS
2007-08 48% 0.36(0.035) ------- (DPS,DPR&PER) BV
2008-09 41%
0.058(0.099)
------- -------------------- EPS &ROCE(COVER)
2009-10 58% 0.55(0.018) -------- PER(DPR&ROCE) DPS(BV)
2010-11 62% 0.79(0.010) -------- GROWTH (PER) DPR(BV&ROCE)
2011-12 69% 0.79(0.010) -------- DPR(BV) EPS &DPS (ROCE)
2012-13 61%
1.05(0.031)
-------- ROCE(COVER,PER,GROWT
H)
DPR(BV)
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insignificant. The second part of normal period contains the period from 01-04-2009 to 31-03-2013. PER and
ROCE have positive and significant impact on the share price at five and ten percent level. The variable BV,
DPS,EPS, DPR and Growth have a positive relationship with share price and statistically insignificant. However,
the Cover has a negative impact on share price and are insignificant. In the recession period from 1st
April 2007
to 31st
march 2009. PERhas positive and significant impact while Growth has a negative and significant impact
on the share price at five percent level. The variable EPS and COVER have a positive relationship with share
price and statistically insignificant. However, the DPS, BV, DPR and ROCE have a negative impact on share
price and are insignificant.
7. Suggestions
It is suggested that Earning per share has been emerged significant with the positive sign in eight years out of
fifteen years period under study while Dividend per share is significantly negative in nine years, it means
Earnings should not be distributed. It is supported by Walter and Gordon model that growth firms will prefer
retained earnings and not to distribute the dividend. So, it is advisable to investors to consider EPS rather than
DPS. As in the present analysis the Dividend Payout Ratio and Price Earning ratio are not significant variables to
be considered while making investment decision.
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List of Companies taken for study :-
1. A B B Ltd.
2. A C C Ltd.
3. Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd.
4. Ambuja Cements Ltd.
5. Apollo Tyres Ltd.
6. Ashok Leyland Ltd.
7. Asian Paints Ltd.
8. AurobindoPharma Ltd.
9. Axis Bank Ltd.
10. Bank Of Baroda
11. Bank Of India
12. Bata India Ltd.
13. Bharat Electronics Ltd.
14. Bharat Forge Ltd.
15. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.
16. Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd.
17. Britannia Industries Ltd.
18. Chambal Fertilisers& Chemicals Ltd.
19. Cipla Ltd.
20. Container Corpn. Of India Ltd.
21. Coromandel International Ltd.
22. Crisil Ltd.
23. Crompton Greaves Ltd.
24. Cummins India Ltd.
25. E I H Ltd.
26. Engineers India Ltd.
27. Essar Oil Ltd.
28. Exide Industries Ltd.
29. Federal Bank Ltd.
30. Financial Technologies (India) Ltd.
31. Future Retail Ltd.
32. G A I L (India) Ltd.
33. Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
34. Grasim Industries Ltd.
35. Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.
36. Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd.
37. Gujarat Mineral Devp. Corpn. Ltd.
38. Havells India Ltd.
39. Hero Motocorp Ltd.
40. Hexaware Technologies Ltd.
41. Hindalco Industries Ltd.
42. Hindustan Petroleum Corpn. Ltd.
43. Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
44. Hindustan Zinc Ltd.
45. Housing Development Finance Corpn. Ltd.
46. I C I C I Bank Ltd.
47. I D B I Bank Ltd.
48. I N G Vysya Bank Ltd.
49. I V R C L Ltd.
50. Indian Oil Corpn. Ltd.
51. Infosys Ltd.
52. Ipca Laboratories Ltd.
53. Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
54. Lupin Ltd.
55. Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd.
56. Manappuram Finance Ltd.
57. Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.
58. Marico Ltd.
59. Nestle India Ltd.
60. Neyveli Lignite Corpn. Ltd.
61. Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd.
62. Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
63. Reliance Capital Ltd.
64. Reliance Infrastructure Ltd.
65. Sesa Goa Ltd.
66. Siemens Ltd.
67. Sintex Industries Ltd.
68. State Bank Of India
69. Steel Authority Of India Ltd.
70. Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. [Merged]
71. Sun Pharmaceutical Inds. Ltd.
72. Tata Chemicals Ltd.
73. Tata Communications Ltd.
74. Tata Motors Ltd.
75. Tata Power Co. Ltd.
76. Tata Steel Ltd.
77. Titan Industries Ltd.
78. Wipro Ltd.
79. Wockhardt Ltd.
80. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd.