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The Economy: This Time It Is Different A Lecture on Why and What to do Now Jeff Burrow, CFP ® Wealth Advisor Jason Gordo, CRPS ®   Wealth Advisor Valley Wealth, Inc. is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
How We Got Here Credit Markets / Lending Standards Financialization Subprime Lending / Subprime Crisis American Capitalism is Powered by Credit PLUS, Oil, War, Cyclical Downturn, American Lifestyle, etc.
Attempted Solutions So Far “ Injections” of Capital Worldwide FDIC Insurance Raised to $250,000 Federal Reserve Lowered Interest Rates Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008  $700 Billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)  The $800 Billion / $1 Trillion  “Obama” Stimulus Plan
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $98 Billion
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $237 Billion
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $256 Billion
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $500 Billion
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $597 Billion
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $698 Billion
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $851 Billion
Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $3.6 Trillion
The Future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Average is not normal WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
LAST 80 THE YEARS THE STOCK MARKET WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
AVERAGED 10 % WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
Average is not normal WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
those 80 during years WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
ANNUAL LIKE RETURNS LOOKED THIS WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33 34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6 4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8 -10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9 28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27 -3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17 2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21 31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
HOW MANY OF THOSE RETURNS WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
BETWEEN WERE WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
9 11 AND WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM %
OR EVEN  CLOSE  TO: average WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33 34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6 4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8 -10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9 28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27 -3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17 2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21 31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
2 OUT OF 80 WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM Average is not normal
SO YOU  MAY BE PLANNING ON WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
REALITY YOU WILL IN EXPERIENCE WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
Risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Biggest Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Consistent Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Gains Needed To Get Even
Diversification ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
True  Diversification ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1/3 Equities & Fixed Income US Stocks International Stocks Small Cap Stocks Municipal Bonds Corporate Bonds Mid-Cap Stocks
1/3 Real Estate Multi-Family Housing Office Buildings Retail / Shopping Real Estate Related Securities Hospitality Warehouse / Industrial  International Real Estate
1/3 Alternative Assets Precious Metals Commodities Currencies Long / Short Equity Convertible Bonds Managed Futures Sector Rotation Opportunistic/Distressed Debt  Natural Resources Special Situations Merger Arbitrage Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Easy Plan Steps to a Better Life
E valuate What You Own and Why You Own It
A mount of Money You Need Monthly
S olve Your Risks and Shortfalls
Y our Spot on the Wealth Scale™ Bill Gates You
P osition Your Assets for True Diversification Liquidity Growth Income Inflation Protection Split Portfolio Into Three Parts
L eave the Jones’ Behind Financial Advice From Jones’
A nalyze Your Progress
N ever Forget the Fundamentals
There is an  Easy Plan E  valuate What You Own and Why You Own It A  mount of Money You Need Monthly S  olve Your Risks and Shortfalls Y  our Spot on the Wealth Scale ™ P  osition Your Assets for True Diversification L  eave the Jones’ Behind A  nalyze Your Progress N  ever Forget the Fundamentals
Disclosures ,[object Object]
1101 Sylvan Avenue. Suite B-6  Modesto, CA  95350 Phone    Web (209) 579-5900   www.valleywealth.com  Jeffrey S. Burrow, CFP ® Wealth Advisor [email_address] Jason M. Gordo, CRPS ® Wealth Advisor [email_address]

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Valley Wealth Economy Presentation - March 09

  • 1. The Economy: This Time It Is Different A Lecture on Why and What to do Now Jeff Burrow, CFP ® Wealth Advisor Jason Gordo, CRPS ® Wealth Advisor Valley Wealth, Inc. is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
  • 2. How We Got Here Credit Markets / Lending Standards Financialization Subprime Lending / Subprime Crisis American Capitalism is Powered by Credit PLUS, Oil, War, Cyclical Downturn, American Lifestyle, etc.
  • 3. Attempted Solutions So Far “ Injections” of Capital Worldwide FDIC Insurance Raised to $250,000 Federal Reserve Lowered Interest Rates Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 $700 Billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) The $800 Billion / $1 Trillion “Obama” Stimulus Plan
  • 4. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM
  • 5. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $98 Billion
  • 6. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $237 Billion
  • 7. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $256 Billion
  • 8. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $500 Billion
  • 9. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $597 Billion
  • 10. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $698 Billion
  • 11. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $851 Billion
  • 12. Big Budget Events WWW.CNBC.COM $3.6 Trillion
  • 13.
  • 14. Average is not normal WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 15. LAST 80 THE YEARS THE STOCK MARKET WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 16. AVERAGED 10 % WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 18. Average is not normal WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 19. those 80 during years WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 20. ANNUAL LIKE RETURNS LOOKED THIS WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 21. WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33 34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6 4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8 -10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9 28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27 -3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17 2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21 31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15
  • 23. HOW MANY OF THOSE RETURNS WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 24. BETWEEN WERE WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 25. 9 11 AND WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM %
  • 26. OR EVEN CLOSE TO: average WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 27. WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33 34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6 4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8 -10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9 28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27 -3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17 2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21 31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15
  • 29. 2 OUT OF 80 WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 30. WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM Average is not normal
  • 31. SO YOU MAY BE PLANNING ON WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 34. REALITY YOU WILL IN EXPERIENCE WWW . BEHAVIORGAP . COM
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. 1/3 Equities & Fixed Income US Stocks International Stocks Small Cap Stocks Municipal Bonds Corporate Bonds Mid-Cap Stocks
  • 42. 1/3 Real Estate Multi-Family Housing Office Buildings Retail / Shopping Real Estate Related Securities Hospitality Warehouse / Industrial International Real Estate
  • 43. 1/3 Alternative Assets Precious Metals Commodities Currencies Long / Short Equity Convertible Bonds Managed Futures Sector Rotation Opportunistic/Distressed Debt Natural Resources Special Situations Merger Arbitrage Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
  • 44. Easy Plan Steps to a Better Life
  • 45. E valuate What You Own and Why You Own It
  • 46. A mount of Money You Need Monthly
  • 47. S olve Your Risks and Shortfalls
  • 48. Y our Spot on the Wealth Scale™ Bill Gates You
  • 49. P osition Your Assets for True Diversification Liquidity Growth Income Inflation Protection Split Portfolio Into Three Parts
  • 50. L eave the Jones’ Behind Financial Advice From Jones’
  • 51. A nalyze Your Progress
  • 52. N ever Forget the Fundamentals
  • 53. There is an Easy Plan E valuate What You Own and Why You Own It A mount of Money You Need Monthly S olve Your Risks and Shortfalls Y our Spot on the Wealth Scale ™ P osition Your Assets for True Diversification L eave the Jones’ Behind A nalyze Your Progress N ever Forget the Fundamentals
  • 54.
  • 55. 1101 Sylvan Avenue. Suite B-6 Modesto, CA  95350 Phone Web (209) 579-5900 www.valleywealth.com Jeffrey S. Burrow, CFP ® Wealth Advisor [email_address] Jason M. Gordo, CRPS ® Wealth Advisor [email_address]