4- The prisoner's dilemma- Two out of three prisoners are to be releas.docx
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4. The prisoner's dilemma. Two out of three prisoners are to be released. One of the prisoners asks a guard to tell him the identity of a prisoner other than himself that will be released. The guard refuses with the following rationale: at your present state of knowledge, your probability of being released is 2/3 , but after you know my answer, your probability of being released will become 1/2 , since there will be two prisoners (including yourself) whose fate is unknown and exactly one of the two will be released. What is wrong with the guard's reasoning. .
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