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3-24-2020 VSPC COVID-19 Insights
- 1. Visit St. Pete/ Clearwater Covid – 19 Insights As of 3/24/2020
- 14. Visit St. Pete/ Clearwater Covid – 19 Insights As of 3/23/2020
- 36. Covid – 19 New Slides As of 3/20/2020
- 38. Covid – 19 New Slides As of 3/19/2020
- 77. Week- 3/8- 3/14 % change Y/Y Occ ADR RevPAR Total U.S. -24.4% -10.7% -32.5% Tampa/St. Pete MSA -17.9% -7.0% -23.6% Pinellas -13.4% -4.5% -17.3%
- 78. Sources • ADARA COVID-19 Resource Center - Travel Trends Tracker • State-by-state coronavirus news • HNN - Data insights into effectiveness of downturn strategies • Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center • Cases in U.S. | CDC • Home | Florida Disaster • COVID-19 Travel Bans.xlsx • Home | Destination Analysts Coronavirus Travel Sentiment Index Report • Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map • Coronavirus & Travel Industry: Breaking News & Impacts – Skift • Coronavirus Impact Report on Short Term Vacation Rental Regions | Key Data Dashboard • https://www.sojern.com/blog/category/covid-19-travel-industry
- 79. COVID - 19 Helpful Slides – 3/17/2020
- 80. STR Weekly ADR 12/21/2019 – 03/07/2020
- 81. STR Weekly OCC 12/21/2019 – 03/07/2020
- 85. Mentions online
- 100. Airline Data
- 101. Commercial air traffic down 7.2% in March 2020
- 102. Global Air Traffic
- 104. New Slides As of 3/18/2020
- 105. Total U.S. STR Weekly OCC 12/22/2019 – 03/14/2020
- 106. Total U. S. STR Weekly ADR 12/22/2019 – 03/14/2020
- 107. Total U. S. STR Weekly RevPAR 12/22/2019 – 03/14/2020
- 108. Top 25 Markets Performance Current week of 3/8/2020- 3/14/2020
- 109. Top 25 Occupancy by Day Current week of 3/8/2020- 3/14/2020
- 110. Pinellas STR
- 113. Pinellas STR Trend Report
Editor's Notes
- Florida STR data from Visit Florida
- Florida Key Data Dashboard data from Visit Florida
- Airline Data Inc data from Visit Fl. This shows the change in the total number of airline seats scheduled to fly from non Florida domestic or international airports to Florida between 3/1 and 5/21/2020
- BVK Covid-19 Essential Consumer Takeaways
- BVK Covid-19 Essential Consumer Takeaways
- BVK Covid-19 Essential Consumer Takeaways
- BVK Covid-19 Essential Consumer Takeaways
- Engine Covid – 19: Pulse of the consumer https://enginegroup.com/us/stay-informed/covid-19-consumer/?utm_source=2019.11.26+CARAVAN+holiday+campaign&utm_medium=email&utm_term=CARAVAN&utm_content=2019.11.26+CARAVAN+holiday+campaign&utm_campaign=2019.11.26+CARAVAN+holiday+campaign
- Engine Covid – 19: Pulse of the consumer
- 2 more deaths as of today
- Kinsa health stats still on the decline!
- Kinsa reports a decrease in atypical temperatures in Pinellas. Pinellas is still above the expected but is currently in decline! https://healthweather.us/ Note: Due to widespread social distancing, school closures, stay-at-home orders, etc. influenza-related illness levels are dropping in many regions. In some regions (e.g. CA) they’re dropping below the expected range for this time of year — which reduces the level of atypical illness to zero on our map.
- Destination Analysts sentiment weekly tracker- As COVID-19 spreads, so does its devastation on how Americans feel about travel. In the latest wave of Destination Analysts’ Coronavirus Travel Sentiment tracking study (collected March 20-22), nearly two-thirds (64.3%) of the 1,200+ American leisure and business travelers surveyed said their travel had been upended by the virus. This is up 20% from just one week prior and nearly six times what it was on February 22nd.
- Destination Analysts sentiment weekly tracker- Unfortunately, this impact appears to have resulted in more cancelled—rather than postponed—trips. As shown in the graphic below, 63.0% of American travelers who had travel affected by coronavirus have cancelled a trip (up from 55.1% on week prior), while the percent reporting they have postponed a trip has declined from 51.0% to 46.7%. Other reported impacts on travel—such as changing destinations–have not yet been significant. One of the most challenging findings from this week’s survey is that the percent of American travelers optimistic the coronavirus situation will be resolved by the summer travel season has declined to 37.5%, down from 52.5% last week. What was seemingly a glimmer of hope just a week ago has been diminished. One of the key factors in this week’s results are Baby Boomer travelers who, within a few days time, have gone from the generation reporting the least impact to their travel to the generation most impacted. A week ago, 38.2% of Boomer travelers reported their travel had been affected by the coronavirus situation, a figure that has dramatically risen to 73.1%. And while 51.0% of Boomer travelers agreed last week that the coronavirus situation would be resolved by the summer travel season; now just 28.2% feel that way.
- These charts show the relative booking volume of flight and hotel bookings relative to January 2, 2020. Each of the lines shown are bookings relative to that particular sector (business travelers, solo or couple leisure travelers or family travelers with 3+ flyers). Data will be updated daily.
- On the basis of the information the IOC has, postponement has been decided,” Pound said in a phone interview. “The parameters going forward have not been determined, but the Games are not going to start on July 24, that much I know.” Pound, a Canadian who has been one of the most influential members of the IOC for decades, said he believes the IOC will announce its next steps soon.
- Key Data dashboard 3/23/2020 Daily booking is key data show the home share market is at its lowest currently as of 3/16
- https://www.tampabay.com/news/pinellas/2020/03/23/work-continues-at-the-st-pete-pier-even-as-fears-of-the-coronavirus-mounts/ Tampa Times article about the pier
- Oxford economics recession risk chart Only updated through 3/15
- New York State Gov report- This is slides from how New York is responding to the greater number of cases.
- New York State Gov report- This is slides from how New York is responding to the greater number of cases.
- New York State Gov report- This is slides from how New York is responding to the greater number of cases.
- New York State Gov report- This is slides from how New York is responding to the greater number of cases.
- New York State Gov report- This is slides from how New York is responding to the greater number of cases.
- Tampa Times reporting3/23/2020
- John Hopkins stats 3/23/2020
- Bing map of Florida cases 3/23
- Flights map as of 3/23 2020 4 pm
- Commercial traffic includes scheduled passenger or cargo flights operated by an airline. Excluded here are non-scheduled private flights, general aviation, gliders, and balloons. Commercial air traffic down 10% in March 2020 The major decline in commercial traffic began during the third week of January and accelerated in to February before making a modest recovery toward the end of the month into the first week of March as China restarted some flights. In the second week of March, governments around the world began implementing restrictions on travel that have led to a further—and continuing—decrease in the number of flights operated globally. This trend has increased sharply this week.
- Above is the 7-day moving average of all flights tracked by Flightradar24 from May 2016 to 19 March 2020
- From Oxford Economics showing how countries are trying to flatten the curve.
- Tampa Times Article Experts say we must "flatten the curve" to slow the spread of coronavirus. Florida is just starting that process, but so far the curve is growing. The state is now tracking more than 300 known cases and eight deaths, according to health officials. The chart above shows how many cases state health officials have reported each calendar day. State officials also said that coronavirus is suspected or confirmed in 19 long-term care facilities in Florida, potentially exposing hundreds of the state’s most vulnerable people to the virus. And here's the kicker: they're refusing to identify the facilities, citing privacy concerns
- Sojern- YoY hotel bookings in Florida (which is showing upward trend as of March 8)
- US Travel Main stats
- 2/3 of people are concerned about the impact on their personal finances
- Only 58.5% think the situation is going to get worse next month
- It is split 50/50 if the current situation has affected a person’s travel plans
- Of the people that had effected plans half canceled and the other half postponed or changed destination
- 56% of people got refunds for their cancellation
- most people are not even sure/neutral if they want to see travel marketing
- This is the end of the sentiment slides
- Coronavirus has spread more widely and rapidly than expected 157 countries have imposed some type of travel restriction. That is 90% of all international travel
- Two scenarios for global travel Economy and international travel International travel this year is going to fall by 20%
- The effects are worldwide Everyone is feeling it
- Percentage of manufacturing that is contracting leading into a recession
- The most acute losses will be in the red and yellow, the discretionary funds
- Historical precedence for the 3rd and 4th quarter resurgence Oxford economics models Tourism economics models expects an awful Q1 but massive growth in Q2,see below
- Profile of what we think for the travel industry March is a true freefall but they are currently forecast the recovery in the April as we move through the year Effects on unemployment are going to be dramatic Unemployment going to surge to 10% they are forecasting Travel on its own pushing unemployment from 3% to 6% alone Loss of 18 billion visitors 50billion loss of revenue in travel- twice as much as 9/11 355 billion in rev with domestic travel spending 55 was 9/11 6 times the impact currently
- Occ in US still at 52%, still dropping- when this week comes in it should be more like Italy and China You could look at this chart and say that the US is faring better then China/Italy, but it could also be said that people are not heading the word of the CDC to social distance and self-quarantine. Potentially prolonging the pandemic.
- Perhaps 18% drop and big rebound- simply because it has always happened Economic collateral damage that will have to be worked through The degree to which it declined is unprecedented but the nature of it is not The year and degree is different but the pattern should be the same
- STR occ levels
- Sojern With lowered prices and lenient cancelation policies the flight searches have rebounded
- Sojern
- 3/19 4pm
- 3/19 4pm
- John Hopkins 3/19
- STR data 3/8- 3/14
- 3/1- 3/7 Weekly file from STR
- 3/1- 3/7 Weekly file from STR
- Key data dashboard https://keydatadashboard.com/coronavirus-impact-report-on-short-term-vacation-rental-regions/
- Key data dashboard https://keydatadashboard.com/coronavirus-impact-report-on-short-term-vacation-rental-regions/
- This is from the SparkLoft 3/12/2020 webinar
- This is from the SparkLoft 3/12/2020 webinar
- North American Covid- 19 Baromenter March 9th 2020 Update
- Demographic of respondents North American Covid- 19 Baromenter March 9th 2020 Update
- Bing map 3/16/2020 noon vs 3/17/2020 5pm https://www.bing.com/covid
- Tampa Times Covid -19 3/16/2020 12pm https://www.tampabay.com/coronavirus/ http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/COVID-19/
- Adara 3/16/2020 12pm
- Week ending 3/7/2020 RevPAR for the U.S. down 11.6% It is spread across the board in each segment( meetings, leisure) and (upper, middle, economy) one segment isn’t faring better than the other nationally in the top 25 markets Double digit declines for the foreseeable future China closed 2600 hotels and occupancy was in single digits at the end of January, as of today have about 80% back open and are slowly back on the incline
- This slide shows China and Italy’s occupancy in line with the U.S. based on occupancy from when the levels start to drop. It is very telling of the depth that this can reach down into the single digit Occ.
- http://www.hotelnewsnow.com/Articles/300620/Data-insights-into-effectiveness-of-downturn-strategies
- http://www.hotelnewsnow.com/Articles/300620/Data-insights-into-effectiveness-of-downturn-strategies
- https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html John Hopkins source
- Demand for vacation rentals has suffered some significant setbacks, but the supply trend doesn’t seem to match the noise in the wider travel industry. Expectations may be low, but vacation rental hosts are, for all intents and purposes, open for business. Air DNA Blog https://www.airdna.co/blog/coronavirus-impact-on-global-short-term-rental-markets
- FlightRadar24- Commercial air traffic down 7.2% in March 2020 The decline has continued since February, when flights were down 4.3% compared to 2019, as airlines and governments respond to the spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19. Through 15 March, we have tracked 1,514,780 commercial flights (out of 2,605,413 total flights). For the same 15 days in March 2019, commercial flights tracked were 1,633,065 (out of 2,564,867 total). Number of scheduled flights is dropping fast, but many are replaced by rescue flights to bring citizens home, which keeps tracking numbers up. Currently airline after airline is grounding their fleet & we expect a big drop in number of tracked flights before the end of this week. https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/commercial-air-traffic-now-down-7-2-in-march/
- With data for 15 March 2020 included, our moving average of the total flights tracked has now dipped below the 2019 average for the first time. https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/commercial-air-traffic-now-down-7-2-in-march/
- FlightRadar24- Flight map as of 4pm 3/17/2020
- STR Weekly National Hotel This is the occupancy over the last 12 weeks It shows how Pinellas was having occupancy levels very close to last year, in the next slide is shows that the ADR has been higher in the last 12 weeks showing the higher RevPAr following Around Feb 28th was cali 1st case and march 8th was floridas, so in this time is when we see the begginings of the decline
- STR Weekly National Hotel
- STR Weekly National Hotel
- STR Weekly National Hotel You can see the Tampa metro area is in decline in the teens not twenties or thirties like other metro areas are seeing
- STR Weekly National Hotel Occ this last week held at around 70% but will still decline further next week
- STR Weekly Destination
- STR Weekly Destination
- STR Weekly Destination Pinellas is average occ is at 79.5 for last week, showing our strong market over Tampa ADR held with only a -4.5% drop And RevPAR declined -17.3% year over year
- Key data, Global Bookings by Lead Time For home share- the 0-30 days booking had a spike globally but then immediately declined Occupancy is down year over year in booking is the -55%- -80%
- Key Data, Impacts of COVID-19 on the Vacation Rental Industry in the United States Updated on March 16,2020 Starting mid Feb you see the large drop off of booking for vacation rentals of past 50% Cancelations ballooned for the March timespan and are hovering around 15% AFTER may, but will continue to change as events unfold
- Adara There was an increase in U.S. travel for leisure ¾- 3/12, but then a large decrease across all sectors. Hotel leisure and non leisure travel declines dramatically after 3/14