This document summarizes the US cattle market outlook. It provides data on total US cattle inventory, beef production, cattle slaughter rates, and cattle prices from 2013 to the present. Overall, demand for beef has been good in recent years, supporting higher prices despite increasing production levels. However, there is uncertainty from ongoing trade issues and African Swine Fever impacting pork production. The outlook suggests prices will remain strong in the near future if demand remains robust.

1. BEEF CATTLE MARKET OUTLOOK
Samuel D. Zapata
Assistant Professor & Extension Economist
26-07-19
Beef Cattle Production
Workshop
McAllen,TX

2. Value of Texas Agriculture Production
Total value: $25.06 billion

3. Value of Texas Livestock Production

4. Cattle Market Outlook

5. Econ 101
Price
Quantity
Supply
Demand
P*
Q*

6. Supply

7. 80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Mil. Head
TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY
JANUARY 1 - U.S., Annual
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2019 = 94.8 Million heads
+0.5 Percent

8. 14.4
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Bil. Bushels
US ANNUAL CORN PRODUCTION
Crop Year
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

10. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Bu.
SOUTHERN PLAINS CORN PRICES
Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

11. 9.7
10.0
10.3
10.6
10.9
11.2
11.5
11.8
12.1
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
CATTLE ON FEED
US Total, Monthly
Avg. 2013/17 2018 2019
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

12. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
STEER SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

13. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
BEEF COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

14. 110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
HEIFER SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

15. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
JAN APR JUL OCT
Mil. Pounds
BEEF PRODUCTION
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

16. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

17. U.S. Beef Imports
Data Source: USDA-ERS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Australia Canada New
Zealand
Mexico Brazil Nicaragua Uruguay Other
Countries
2016 2017 2018 2019-Jan-May
Mil. pounds

18. Demand

19. Real Median Household Income

20. 55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Mil. Head
ALL HOGS AND PIGS
U.S. Inventory, as September 1
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
~ 20%↑

21. 155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
JAN APR JUL OCT
Million Heads
CHICKEN BROILERS PLACEMENTS
WEEKLY
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019
Data Source: USDA-NASS

22. 0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
COMMERCIAL MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION
ByType of Meat,Annual
Beef Pork Lamb & Veal Chicken Turkey
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Bil. Pounds

23. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
100
95 94
86 87
83 86
75 77 76
80 80
83 83
91
87 85 85
82 81
74
77 79 80 80
93 92
89 87 87
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Index Value
RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX
First Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100

24. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

25. U.S. Beef Exports
Data Source: USDA-ERS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Japan South
Korea
Mexico Hong
Kong
Canada China
(Taiwan)
Other
Countries
2016 2017 2018 2019, Jan-May
Mil. pounds

26. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
JAN APR JUL OCT
Percent
BEEF GRADED CHOICE
As a Percent of Beef Graded
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

27. Prices

28. C-P-54
04/18/18
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES
500-600 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

29. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES
Southern Plains, Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

30. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
SLAUGHTER COW PRICES
Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly
Avg. 2013-17 2018 2019

31. 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650 Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Cents Per
Pound
RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON
Monthly
Pork Composite Broiler All Fresh Beef
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

32. US Per Capital Meat Consumption
82
5348
4734
76
2 1
12
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Beef Pork Poultry Lamb All Fish
Pounds per capita, retail weight

33. Prices for 2016-2019
Texas Combined
Auction for 5-600
and 7-800
11-1300 7-800 5-600
2017 121.52 144.21 156.76
2018 I 125.60 146.99 166.68
II 116.72 141.33 160.16
III 110.83 152.22 160.61
IV 115.32 149.60 157.10
2019 I 125.27 141.42 162.54
II 118.79 139.55 160.06
III 106-110 137-142 148-154
IV 112-116 138-142 144-151
2020 I 118-124 138-141 147-152
II 117-121 136-145 149-155
III 105-112 136-146 147-159
IV 109-117 137-146 145-152

34. Overall
— Good Domestic and International
Demand
◦ Best in 25 years
— Good Demand Supports Prices
◦ In spite of larger production
— But, Lots of Turmoil
◦ Trade
◦ African Swine Fever (ASF)

35. Thank you!
Samuel D. Zapata
samuel.zapata@ag.tamu.edu
@SZapataD12