Market Summary
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment
(index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate
(S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond Market ex US (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index [hedged to USD]). S&P data ©
2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI
2018, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. FTSE fixed income © 2018 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved.
Index Returns
STOCKS BONDS
7.12% 1.31% 1.09% -0.03% 0.02% -0.17%
US STOCK
MARKET
INTERNATIONAL
DEVELOPED
STOCKS
EMERGING
MARKETS
STOCKS
GLOBAL
REAL ESTATE
US BOND
MARKET
GLOBAL BOND
MARKET ex US
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data
is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights
reserved. Dow Jones data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. S&P data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data
provided by Bloomberg. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
-1.09
-4.21
7.71
7.12
3.58
1.31
S&P 500 Index
Russell 3000 Index
Russell 2000 Index
MSCI World ex USA Index (net div.)
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div.)
MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index (net div.)
World Asset Classes
Third Quarter 2018 Index Returns (%)
9.17
7.42
7.12
5.70
5.52
3.58
1.60
Large Growth
Large Cap
Marketwide
Large Value
Small Growth
Small Cap
Small Value
US Stocks
Third Quarter 2018 Ranked Index Returns (%)
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment
(index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index),
Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index.
Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.
* Annualized
ASSET CLASS YTD 1 Year 3 Years* 5Years* 10 Years*
Large Growth 17.09 26.30 20.55 16.58 14.31
Small Growth 15.76 21.06 17.98 12.14 12.65
Small Cap 11.51 15.24 17.12 11.07 11.11
Marketwide 10.57 17.58 17.07 13.46 12.01
Large Cap 10.49 17.76 17.07 13.67 12.09
Small Value 7.14 9.33 16.12 9.91 9.52
Large Value 3.92 9.45 13.55 10.72 9.79
US Stocks
Period Index Returns (%)
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment
(index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index),
Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index.
Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.
-3.59
-4.19
-5.42
8.53
6.94
6.44
Israel
US
Sweden
Italy
Belgium
Ireland
Select Country Performance
Third Quarter 2018 Ranked Developed Market Returns (%)
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country
performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on
dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.
-10.88
-13.36
-20.89
14.91
11.64
9.31
7.49
5.62
5.08
Thailand
Qatar
Poland
Mexico
Russia
Brazil
Egypt
Greece
Turkey
Select Country Performance
Third Quarter 2018 Ranked Emerging Market Returns (%)
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country
performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on
dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.
Fixed Income Returns
One basis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual
portfolio. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated.
A-BBB Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills,
and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). FTSE fixed income indices © 2018 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. ICE BofAML index
data © 2018 ICE Data Indices, LLC.
Federal Funds Rate Expectations
FOMC and Market Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the fed futures market as of the date of the September 2018 FOMC meeting and are
through September 2021. *Long-run projections are the rates of growth, unemployment and inflation to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over the next five to six years in absence of further shocks and
under appropriate monetary policy. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
Long-Run Bond Returns
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index
Source: Bloomberg Barclays, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2010s are from January 2010 to September 2013. R2 for bond yields and subsequent five-year returns is 86%. Past performance is not indicative of
comparable future results. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
U.S. & International Equities at Inflection Points
MSCI All Country World ex U.S. and S&P 500 Indices
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forward price to earnings ratio is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12
months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Dividend yield is calculated as consensus estimates of dividends
for the next 12 months, divided by most recent price, as provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
Forward Price-to-
Earnings Ratio and
Subsequent 5-Year
Annualized Returns
S&P 500 Total Return Index
Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are
60-month annualized total returns, measured monthly, beginning September 30, 1993. R2 represents
the percent of total variation in total returns that can be explained by forward P/E ratios. Guide to the
Markets - U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Australia -10.4 6.1 17.6 -10.0 1.7 -1.3 49.5 30.3 16.0 30.9 28.3 -50.7 76.4 14.5 -11.0 22.1 4.2 -3.4 -10.0 11.4
Austria 1.6 0.4 -9.1 -12.0 -5.6 16.5 57.0 71.5 24.6 36.5 2.2 -68.4 43.2 9.9 -36.4 25.9 13.4 -29.8 3.5 11.3
Belgium 13.6 67.7 -14.3 -16.8 -10.9 -15.0 35.3 43.5 9.0 36.7 -2.7 -66.5 57.5 -0.4 -10.6 39.6 27.6 4.1 12.1 -7.6
Canada 12.8 -6.1 53.7 5.3 -20.4 -13.2 54.6 22.2 28.3 17.8 29.6 -45.5 56.2 20.5 -12.7 9.1 5.6 1.5 -24.2 24.6
Denmark 34.5 9.0 12.1 3.4 -14.8 -16.0 49.3 30.8 24.5 38.8 25.6 -47.6 36.6 30.7 -16.0 31.3 25.2 6.2 23.4 -15.8
Finland 17.3 121.6 152.6 -14.2 -38.2 -30.3 19.4 6.1 16.7 29.9 48.7 -55.2 11.1 10.3 -31.9 14.6 46.0 -0.7 2.0 -4.7
France 11.9 41.5 29.3 -4.3 -22.4 -21.2 40.2 18.5 9.9 34.5 13.2 -43.3 31.8 -4.1 -16.9 21.3 26.3 -9.9 -0.1 4.9
Germany 24.6 29.4 20.0 -15.6 -22.4 -33.2 63.8 16.2 9.9 36.0 35.2 -45.9 25.2 8.4 -18.1 30.9 31.4 -10.4 -1.9 2.8
Hong Kong -23.3 -2.9 59.5 -14.7 -18.6 -17.8 38.1 25.0 8.4 30.4 41.2 -51.2 60.2 23.2 -16.0 28.3 11.1 5.1 -0.5 2.3
Ireland 15.8 35.3 -12.6 -12.7 -2.8 -26.2 43.8 43.1 -2.3 46.8 -20.1 -71.9 12.3 -18.1 13.7 5.7 41.2 2.3 16.5 -7.1
Italy 35.5 52.5 -0.3 -1.3 -26.6 -7.3 37.8 32.5 1.9 32.5 6.1 -50.0 26.6 -15.0 -23.2 12.5 20.4 -9.5 2.3 -10.5
Japan -23.7 5.1 61.5 -28.2 -29.4 -10.3 35.9 15.9 25.5 6.2 -4.2 -29.2 6.3 15.4 -14.3 8.2 27.2 -4.0 9.6 2.4
Netherlands 23.8 23.2 6.9 -4.1 -22.1 -20.8 28.1 12.2 13.9 31.4 20.6 -48.2 42.3 1.7 -12.1 20.6 31.3 -3.5 1.3 4.8
New Zealand -14.1 -22.6 12.9 -33.5 8.4 24.2 55.4 35.2 1.7 16.6 8.9 -53.8 50.4 8.3 5.5 29.3 11.3 7.3 -6.3 18.4
Norway 6.2 -30.1 31.7 -0.9 -12.2 -7.3 48.1 53.3 24.3 45.1 31.4 -64.2 87.1 10.9 -10.0 18.7 9.4 -22.0 -15.0 13.3
Singapore -30.0 -12.9 99.4 -27.7 -23.4 -11.0 37.6 22.3 14.4 46.7 28.4 -47.4 74.0 22.1 -17.9 31.0 1.7 3.0 -17.7 1.4
Spain 25.4 49.9 4.8 -15.9 -11.4 -15.3 58.5 28.9 4.4 49.4 24.0 -40.6 43.5 -22.0 -12.3 3.0 31.3 -4.7 -15.6 -1.0
Sweden 12.9 14.0 79.7 -21.3 -27.2 -30.5 64.5 36.3 10.3 43.4 0.6 -49.9 64.2 33.8 -16.0 22.0 24.5 -7.5 -5.0 0.6
Switzerland 44.2 23.5 -7.0 5.9 -21.4 -10.3 34.1 15.0 16.3 27.4 5.3 -30.5 25.3 11.8 -6.8 20.4 26.6 -0.1 0.4 -4.9
UK 22.6 17.8 12.5 -11.5 -14.0 -15.2 32.1 19.6 7.4 30.6 8.4 -48.3 43.3 8.8 -2.6 15.3 20.7 -5.4 -7.6 -0.1
US 33.4 30.1 21.9 -12.8 -12.4 -23.1 28.4 10.1 5.1 14.7 5.4 -37.6 26.3 14.8 1.4 15.3 31.8 12.7 0.7 10.9
In US dollars. Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends). MSCI data © MSCI 2017, all rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated
with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Practice Smart Diversification
Equity Returns of Developed Markets (Annual Return (%))
U.S. & International Equities at Inflection Points
MSCI All Country World ex U.S. and S&P 500 Indices
Source: JP Morgan; Bloomberg; IMF; Author’s calculations
Since Market Low
(March 2008)
Source: FactSet, Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All calculations are cumulative total return, including dividends reinvested for the stated period. Since Market Peak represents
period 10/9/07 – 9/30/18, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index high on 10/9/07. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 – 9/30/18, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index low on 3/9/09. Returns are
cumulative returns, not annualized. For all time periods, total return is based on Russell style indices with the exception of the large blend category, which is based on the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is not indicative of
future returns. The price to earnings is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates.
Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
372.4%
474.5%
415.8%
426.3%
480.2%
463.2%
498.4%
496.4%
510.6%
Value Blend Growth
LargeMidSmall
Growth Trumps Value
Total Return Russell 1000 Value / Russell 1000 Growth
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Yield Curve
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
10 Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), fred.stlouisfed.org

2018 Third Quarter Market Review

  • 1.
    Market Summary Past performanceis not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond Market ex US (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index [hedged to USD]). S&P data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. FTSE fixed income © 2018 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. Index Returns STOCKS BONDS 7.12% 1.31% 1.09% -0.03% 0.02% -0.17% US STOCK MARKET INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED STOCKS EMERGING MARKETS STOCKS GLOBAL REAL ESTATE US BOND MARKET GLOBAL BOND MARKET ex US
  • 2.
    Past performance isnot a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. S&P data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). -1.09 -4.21 7.71 7.12 3.58 1.31 S&P 500 Index Russell 3000 Index Russell 2000 Index MSCI World ex USA Index (net div.) MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div.) MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index (net div.) World Asset Classes Third Quarter 2018 Index Returns (%)
  • 3.
    9.17 7.42 7.12 5.70 5.52 3.58 1.60 Large Growth Large Cap Marketwide LargeValue Small Growth Small Cap Small Value US Stocks Third Quarter 2018 Ranked Index Returns (%) Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.
  • 4.
    * Annualized ASSET CLASSYTD 1 Year 3 Years* 5Years* 10 Years* Large Growth 17.09 26.30 20.55 16.58 14.31 Small Growth 15.76 21.06 17.98 12.14 12.65 Small Cap 11.51 15.24 17.12 11.07 11.11 Marketwide 10.57 17.58 17.07 13.46 12.01 Large Cap 10.49 17.76 17.07 13.67 12.09 Small Value 7.14 9.33 16.12 9.91 9.52 Large Value 3.92 9.45 13.55 10.72 9.79 US Stocks Period Index Returns (%) Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.
  • 5.
    -3.59 -4.19 -5.42 8.53 6.94 6.44 Israel US Sweden Italy Belgium Ireland Select Country Performance ThirdQuarter 2018 Ranked Developed Market Returns (%) Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.
  • 6.
    -10.88 -13.36 -20.89 14.91 11.64 9.31 7.49 5.62 5.08 Thailand Qatar Poland Mexico Russia Brazil Egypt Greece Turkey Select Country Performance ThirdQuarter 2018 Ranked Emerging Market Returns (%) Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.
  • 7.
    Fixed Income Returns Onebasis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). FTSE fixed income indices © 2018 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. ICE BofAML index data © 2018 ICE Data Indices, LLC.
  • 8.
    Federal Funds RateExpectations FOMC and Market Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the fed futures market as of the date of the September 2018 FOMC meeting and are through September 2021. *Long-run projections are the rates of growth, unemployment and inflation to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over the next five to six years in absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
  • 9.
    Long-Run Bond Returns BloombergBarclays U.S. Aggregate Index Source: Bloomberg Barclays, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2010s are from January 2010 to September 2013. R2 for bond yields and subsequent five-year returns is 86%. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
  • 10.
    U.S. & InternationalEquities at Inflection Points MSCI All Country World ex U.S. and S&P 500 Indices Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forward price to earnings ratio is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Dividend yield is calculated as consensus estimates of dividends for the next 12 months, divided by most recent price, as provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
  • 11.
    Forward Price-to- Earnings Ratioand Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns S&P 500 Total Return Index Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are 60-month annualized total returns, measured monthly, beginning September 30, 1993. R2 represents the percent of total variation in total returns that can be explained by forward P/E ratios. Guide to the Markets - U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
  • 12.
    1997 1998 19992000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Australia -10.4 6.1 17.6 -10.0 1.7 -1.3 49.5 30.3 16.0 30.9 28.3 -50.7 76.4 14.5 -11.0 22.1 4.2 -3.4 -10.0 11.4 Austria 1.6 0.4 -9.1 -12.0 -5.6 16.5 57.0 71.5 24.6 36.5 2.2 -68.4 43.2 9.9 -36.4 25.9 13.4 -29.8 3.5 11.3 Belgium 13.6 67.7 -14.3 -16.8 -10.9 -15.0 35.3 43.5 9.0 36.7 -2.7 -66.5 57.5 -0.4 -10.6 39.6 27.6 4.1 12.1 -7.6 Canada 12.8 -6.1 53.7 5.3 -20.4 -13.2 54.6 22.2 28.3 17.8 29.6 -45.5 56.2 20.5 -12.7 9.1 5.6 1.5 -24.2 24.6 Denmark 34.5 9.0 12.1 3.4 -14.8 -16.0 49.3 30.8 24.5 38.8 25.6 -47.6 36.6 30.7 -16.0 31.3 25.2 6.2 23.4 -15.8 Finland 17.3 121.6 152.6 -14.2 -38.2 -30.3 19.4 6.1 16.7 29.9 48.7 -55.2 11.1 10.3 -31.9 14.6 46.0 -0.7 2.0 -4.7 France 11.9 41.5 29.3 -4.3 -22.4 -21.2 40.2 18.5 9.9 34.5 13.2 -43.3 31.8 -4.1 -16.9 21.3 26.3 -9.9 -0.1 4.9 Germany 24.6 29.4 20.0 -15.6 -22.4 -33.2 63.8 16.2 9.9 36.0 35.2 -45.9 25.2 8.4 -18.1 30.9 31.4 -10.4 -1.9 2.8 Hong Kong -23.3 -2.9 59.5 -14.7 -18.6 -17.8 38.1 25.0 8.4 30.4 41.2 -51.2 60.2 23.2 -16.0 28.3 11.1 5.1 -0.5 2.3 Ireland 15.8 35.3 -12.6 -12.7 -2.8 -26.2 43.8 43.1 -2.3 46.8 -20.1 -71.9 12.3 -18.1 13.7 5.7 41.2 2.3 16.5 -7.1 Italy 35.5 52.5 -0.3 -1.3 -26.6 -7.3 37.8 32.5 1.9 32.5 6.1 -50.0 26.6 -15.0 -23.2 12.5 20.4 -9.5 2.3 -10.5 Japan -23.7 5.1 61.5 -28.2 -29.4 -10.3 35.9 15.9 25.5 6.2 -4.2 -29.2 6.3 15.4 -14.3 8.2 27.2 -4.0 9.6 2.4 Netherlands 23.8 23.2 6.9 -4.1 -22.1 -20.8 28.1 12.2 13.9 31.4 20.6 -48.2 42.3 1.7 -12.1 20.6 31.3 -3.5 1.3 4.8 New Zealand -14.1 -22.6 12.9 -33.5 8.4 24.2 55.4 35.2 1.7 16.6 8.9 -53.8 50.4 8.3 5.5 29.3 11.3 7.3 -6.3 18.4 Norway 6.2 -30.1 31.7 -0.9 -12.2 -7.3 48.1 53.3 24.3 45.1 31.4 -64.2 87.1 10.9 -10.0 18.7 9.4 -22.0 -15.0 13.3 Singapore -30.0 -12.9 99.4 -27.7 -23.4 -11.0 37.6 22.3 14.4 46.7 28.4 -47.4 74.0 22.1 -17.9 31.0 1.7 3.0 -17.7 1.4 Spain 25.4 49.9 4.8 -15.9 -11.4 -15.3 58.5 28.9 4.4 49.4 24.0 -40.6 43.5 -22.0 -12.3 3.0 31.3 -4.7 -15.6 -1.0 Sweden 12.9 14.0 79.7 -21.3 -27.2 -30.5 64.5 36.3 10.3 43.4 0.6 -49.9 64.2 33.8 -16.0 22.0 24.5 -7.5 -5.0 0.6 Switzerland 44.2 23.5 -7.0 5.9 -21.4 -10.3 34.1 15.0 16.3 27.4 5.3 -30.5 25.3 11.8 -6.8 20.4 26.6 -0.1 0.4 -4.9 UK 22.6 17.8 12.5 -11.5 -14.0 -15.2 32.1 19.6 7.4 30.6 8.4 -48.3 43.3 8.8 -2.6 15.3 20.7 -5.4 -7.6 -0.1 US 33.4 30.1 21.9 -12.8 -12.4 -23.1 28.4 10.1 5.1 14.7 5.4 -37.6 26.3 14.8 1.4 15.3 31.8 12.7 0.7 10.9 In US dollars. Source: MSCI developed markets country indices (net dividends). MSCI data © MSCI 2017, all rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Practice Smart Diversification Equity Returns of Developed Markets (Annual Return (%))
  • 13.
    U.S. & InternationalEquities at Inflection Points MSCI All Country World ex U.S. and S&P 500 Indices Source: JP Morgan; Bloomberg; IMF; Author’s calculations
  • 14.
    Since Market Low (March2008) Source: FactSet, Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All calculations are cumulative total return, including dividends reinvested for the stated period. Since Market Peak represents period 10/9/07 – 9/30/18, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index high on 10/9/07. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 – 9/30/18, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index low on 3/9/09. Returns are cumulative returns, not annualized. For all time periods, total return is based on Russell style indices with the exception of the large blend category, which is based on the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The price to earnings is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018. 372.4% 474.5% 415.8% 426.3% 480.2% 463.2% 498.4% 496.4% 510.6% Value Blend Growth LargeMidSmall
  • 15.
    Growth Trumps Value TotalReturn Russell 1000 Value / Russell 1000 Growth Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
  • 16.
    Yield Curve U.S. TreasuryYield Curve Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2018.
  • 17.
    10 Year TreasuryConstant Maturity Rate U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), fred.stlouisfed.org