Momentum investing has grown in popularity. As with all investments the devil is in the details. For momentum it boils down to trading costs and protecting one self from crowded trades leading to sharp drawdowns.
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate WorldWindham Labs
Constructing a well-diversified portfolio has become increasingly difficult in recent years. Central Banks around the world have influenced asset prices and driven down interest rates. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), and global diversification have been under attack. The distortion in interest rates and the instability of risk have made generating model inputs challenging.
In this presentation, we discuss an approach to constructing portfolios in this "New World."
The document discusses the potential impact of rising interest rates on equity markets based on past rate hiking cycles and the current economic environment. It finds that the overall effect on stocks is modest when inflation is low and rate increases are gradual. However, certain sectors like utilities and REITs that are sensitive to rate changes may underperform. The pace of rate hikes and communication from the Fed will be important in determining the market response in the current cycle.
Windham hosts Research Director Cel Kulasekaran to discuss a unique approach to evaluating loss. By modifying exposure to loss and accounting for within-horizon losses as well as the regime-dependent nature of large draw downs, investors can achieve a more comprehensive understanding of value at risk.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
Greenwich Asset Management is an independently owned investment firm established in 2001 that offers a proprietary global equity strategy managed by Peter Lundstedt, who has over 24 years of investment experience. The firm uses a quantitative process to select stocks and aims to provide diversified exposure across different industries and countries through a portfolio of 30 equally weighted positions.
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate WorldWindham Labs
Constructing a well-diversified portfolio has become increasingly difficult in recent years. Central Banks around the world have influenced asset prices and driven down interest rates. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), and global diversification have been under attack. The distortion in interest rates and the instability of risk have made generating model inputs challenging.
In this presentation, we discuss an approach to constructing portfolios in this "New World."
The document discusses the potential impact of rising interest rates on equity markets based on past rate hiking cycles and the current economic environment. It finds that the overall effect on stocks is modest when inflation is low and rate increases are gradual. However, certain sectors like utilities and REITs that are sensitive to rate changes may underperform. The pace of rate hikes and communication from the Fed will be important in determining the market response in the current cycle.
Windham hosts Research Director Cel Kulasekaran to discuss a unique approach to evaluating loss. By modifying exposure to loss and accounting for within-horizon losses as well as the regime-dependent nature of large draw downs, investors can achieve a more comprehensive understanding of value at risk.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
Greenwich Asset Management is an independently owned investment firm established in 2001 that offers a proprietary global equity strategy managed by Peter Lundstedt, who has over 24 years of investment experience. The firm uses a quantitative process to select stocks and aims to provide diversified exposure across different industries and countries through a portfolio of 30 equally weighted positions.
The investment philosophy focuses on efficient market investing through portfolio design and implementation that targets dimensions of higher expected returns like value, size, and profitability. It believes prices reflect all available information and aims to add value not by forecasting but by pursuing risk premia in a low-cost, diversified portfolio. Traditional active management often relies on forecasting and generates higher costs without consistent outperformance, while index funds provide little flexibility.
Cougar Global Investments utilizes a proprietary methodology for global asset allocation that combines advanced research in two areas: (1) modeling global capital market behavior using the Theory of Rational Beliefs, and (2) optimizing client portfolios for downside risk using specialized software. In response to the emerging financial crisis, Cougar adjusted its portfolios in January 2008 by selling most equity holdings and moving 80% of assets into money markets. While some regions will struggle, Cougar believes global growth will continue due to emerging markets, and it will keep portfolios defensive until signs of recovery in the U.S. economy emerge.
This report discusses changes made to the international equity allocation strategy. It raises the allocation to emerging markets stocks, large-cap value stocks, and international real estate investment trusts (REITs). For emerging markets, volatility has declined and fund flows have stabilized, warranting a modest increase despite some remaining uncertainty. For REITs, moderate growth abroad and still-low interest rates are favorable, so the allocation is raised to neutral. While continuing to favor growth stocks, international value stocks now present some bargains, so that allocation is also raised. Overall this represents a slightly less defensive stance in light of signs of a milder global economic slowdown.
OFIP Q2 2010 - Security In An Insecure Worldbwoyat
Brent Woyat discusses principles of value investing outlined by Benjamin Graham in a 1963 talk titled "Securities in an Insecure World". Graham emphasized 3 principles: 1) Only invest amounts you can tolerate fluctuations in, 2) Paying a reasonable price is key, 3) Maintain a long-term focus and sticking to a plan. Woyat applies these principles in discussing recent market volatility and positioning portfolios defensively with sectors like consumer staples that benefit from economic slowdowns while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. Portfolio returns remained respectable despite recent market declines.
On 1/26/2017, we hosted a webinar featuring Richard Lindsey, Managing Partner and Head of Liquid Alternative Strategies at Windham Capital Management. Rich discussed how to model portfolio returns, risk premia, and how to decompose portfolio risk.
Asset Allocation for Specific Client GoalsWindham Labs
On Wednesday, January 24th, we heard from Senior Client Consultant Jon Kazarian on how to tailor a portfolio to meet the specific investment goals of a client.
The document provides an analysis of the current COVID-19 impacted market situation and provides recommendations on where to invest. It notes that while the market has rebounded from its lows, there is still uncertainty around how the pandemic and economic situation will evolve. It evaluates factors like earnings pressure, macroeconomic conditions, liquidity and sentiment. Both positives like stimulus measures and negatives like uncertainty are discussed. Recommendations include reviewing one's portfolio, having contingency funds and insurance, and investing through mutual funds for diversification and professional management during this volatile period.
The document summarizes research on the performance of trend-following investing across global markets from 1903 to 2012. Key findings include:
1) Trend-following strategies have delivered consistently strong positive returns each decade for over a century, with low correlation to traditional assets.
2) Trend-following strategies performed best during large equity market declines, helping diversify traditional portfolios.
3) Backtesting shows that allocating 20% of a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio to trend-following from 1903 to 2012 would have increased returns, lowered volatility, and reduced maximum drawdown.
On Thursday, April 27th, 2017, we heard from Windham's own client consultant, Jon Kazarian about best methods and practices for the portfolio construction and evaluation process.
This document discusses strategies for diversification and controlling risk in investments. It summarizes a typical pension fund asset allocation from JPMorgan that divides investments among equities, fixed income, real estate and alternatives. It then discusses the significant monetary and fiscal stimulus by governments and central banks. Finally, it advocates constructing portfolios with statistically independent risk factors to reduce volatility and enhance returns over market cycles.
This document summarizes 20 lessons from the 2008 financial crisis according to investor Seth Klarman:
1) Unexpected events will occur and you must always be prepared.
2) When excesses like lax lending persist, people become complacent and a crisis ensues.
3) Consideration of risk should never take a backseat to potential profits. Maintaining hedges is crucial.
The lessons highlight risks of leverage, trusting models, ratings agencies, and the dangers of new financial products. Most market participants quickly forgot the lessons of 2008 according to Klarman.
Webinar on Structured Investing - A deliberate and thoughtful investment process designed to help you achieve your lifetime financial goals and focus on what matters most to you, whether it is putting your children through college, philanthropy or a secure retirement.
The document discusses how global insurers are rethinking their investment strategies in response to divergent monetary policies and quantitative easing programs. It finds that while insurers see positive short-term effects of QE on asset prices and growth, many are concerned about potential long-term imbalances and market distortions. Insurers are seeking to increase yield by taking on more risk, but are struggling due to low liquidity in fixed income markets and the lack of quality opportunities. They are holding high cash levels as they look for the right investments. Insurers are diversifying into alternative assets like real estate and private credit that generate income. Overall monetary policy uncertainty is a challenge as insurers balance short-term benefits of QE against
The newsletter discusses volatility in investment portfolios and argues that it should be seen as an opportunity rather than a risk. It presents evidence that volatility decreases significantly with increased investment time horizons and that the primary risk for long-term investors is the permanent loss of capital rather than temporary price fluctuations. The newsletter advocates for focusing on economic fundamentals over 3-5 year periods and distinguishing noise from signals when identifying investment opportunities created by market volatility.
Design, build, protect with Capital AssociatesMitch Katz
This document discusses Loring Ward's approach to financial planning and investment management. It outlines their three-step process of designing a tailored plan to meet clients' goals, building portfolios using academic research, and protecting plans by providing guidance. It promotes diversifying globally and incorporating small and value stocks. Charts show long-term stock market growth and benefits of rebalancing. The goal is helping clients achieve financial security and stay on track to reach their "someday."
Asset Allocation in Taxable PortfoliosWindham Labs
On Tuesday, September 26th, we hosted Lucas Turton for a discussion on Asset Allocation in Taxable Portfolios. Lucas explored how to estimate the future value of a portfolio by considering assets on an after-tax basis, asset allocation and location for optimal tax efficiency, and best practices for tax loss harvesting and navigating the wash sale rule.
The document provides an overview of the economic crisis that began in late 2007 and discusses recommendations for investors. It notes that the collapse of subprime lending and the housing bubble led to widespread credit problems and market declines. While the situation remains challenging, following principles like diversification and long-term perspective can help investors navigate volatile markets and find opportunities for future growth as the economy recovers.
- The document discusses whether the current stock market is in a bubble. It notes that by some measures like price-to-earnings ratios, stocks are not yet in bubble territory as they were in 2000.
- It provides several facts to counter the "hair on fire" media coverage of the stock market: there are no true market gurus, markets tend to rise over time, trying to time the market often fails, and cash is not king compared to long term investing in stocks.
- Even if a bubble forms, bubbles always burst eventually but stocks recover over time, so investors should stick to their plan and not panic during downturns.
Be sure to check the inflation and interest rate tide schedules update by Patrick Bowen, Maseco wealth manager, in the latest American in Britain magazine edition. Contact a Maseco financial advisor today to learn more about how we can help you achieve your financial goals. Click here to read the article.
- The document discusses new approaches to investment management that focus on risk awareness and absolute returns rather than benchmark returns. It summarizes recent volatility in traditional asset classes and the growth of absolute return funds in response. Absolute return funds aim to provide positive returns regardless of market conditions through diversification of investment strategies and philosophies rather than just asset types. The document argues for looking beyond traditional indexes to find investment opportunities and evaluating portfolios based on their allocation of risk rather than just asset types.
The investment philosophy focuses on efficient market investing through portfolio design and implementation that targets dimensions of higher expected returns like value, size, and profitability. It believes prices reflect all available information and aims to add value not by forecasting but by pursuing risk premia in a low-cost, diversified portfolio. Traditional active management often relies on forecasting and generates higher costs without consistent outperformance, while index funds provide little flexibility.
Cougar Global Investments utilizes a proprietary methodology for global asset allocation that combines advanced research in two areas: (1) modeling global capital market behavior using the Theory of Rational Beliefs, and (2) optimizing client portfolios for downside risk using specialized software. In response to the emerging financial crisis, Cougar adjusted its portfolios in January 2008 by selling most equity holdings and moving 80% of assets into money markets. While some regions will struggle, Cougar believes global growth will continue due to emerging markets, and it will keep portfolios defensive until signs of recovery in the U.S. economy emerge.
This report discusses changes made to the international equity allocation strategy. It raises the allocation to emerging markets stocks, large-cap value stocks, and international real estate investment trusts (REITs). For emerging markets, volatility has declined and fund flows have stabilized, warranting a modest increase despite some remaining uncertainty. For REITs, moderate growth abroad and still-low interest rates are favorable, so the allocation is raised to neutral. While continuing to favor growth stocks, international value stocks now present some bargains, so that allocation is also raised. Overall this represents a slightly less defensive stance in light of signs of a milder global economic slowdown.
OFIP Q2 2010 - Security In An Insecure Worldbwoyat
Brent Woyat discusses principles of value investing outlined by Benjamin Graham in a 1963 talk titled "Securities in an Insecure World". Graham emphasized 3 principles: 1) Only invest amounts you can tolerate fluctuations in, 2) Paying a reasonable price is key, 3) Maintain a long-term focus and sticking to a plan. Woyat applies these principles in discussing recent market volatility and positioning portfolios defensively with sectors like consumer staples that benefit from economic slowdowns while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. Portfolio returns remained respectable despite recent market declines.
On 1/26/2017, we hosted a webinar featuring Richard Lindsey, Managing Partner and Head of Liquid Alternative Strategies at Windham Capital Management. Rich discussed how to model portfolio returns, risk premia, and how to decompose portfolio risk.
Asset Allocation for Specific Client GoalsWindham Labs
On Wednesday, January 24th, we heard from Senior Client Consultant Jon Kazarian on how to tailor a portfolio to meet the specific investment goals of a client.
The document provides an analysis of the current COVID-19 impacted market situation and provides recommendations on where to invest. It notes that while the market has rebounded from its lows, there is still uncertainty around how the pandemic and economic situation will evolve. It evaluates factors like earnings pressure, macroeconomic conditions, liquidity and sentiment. Both positives like stimulus measures and negatives like uncertainty are discussed. Recommendations include reviewing one's portfolio, having contingency funds and insurance, and investing through mutual funds for diversification and professional management during this volatile period.
The document summarizes research on the performance of trend-following investing across global markets from 1903 to 2012. Key findings include:
1) Trend-following strategies have delivered consistently strong positive returns each decade for over a century, with low correlation to traditional assets.
2) Trend-following strategies performed best during large equity market declines, helping diversify traditional portfolios.
3) Backtesting shows that allocating 20% of a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio to trend-following from 1903 to 2012 would have increased returns, lowered volatility, and reduced maximum drawdown.
On Thursday, April 27th, 2017, we heard from Windham's own client consultant, Jon Kazarian about best methods and practices for the portfolio construction and evaluation process.
This document discusses strategies for diversification and controlling risk in investments. It summarizes a typical pension fund asset allocation from JPMorgan that divides investments among equities, fixed income, real estate and alternatives. It then discusses the significant monetary and fiscal stimulus by governments and central banks. Finally, it advocates constructing portfolios with statistically independent risk factors to reduce volatility and enhance returns over market cycles.
This document summarizes 20 lessons from the 2008 financial crisis according to investor Seth Klarman:
1) Unexpected events will occur and you must always be prepared.
2) When excesses like lax lending persist, people become complacent and a crisis ensues.
3) Consideration of risk should never take a backseat to potential profits. Maintaining hedges is crucial.
The lessons highlight risks of leverage, trusting models, ratings agencies, and the dangers of new financial products. Most market participants quickly forgot the lessons of 2008 according to Klarman.
Webinar on Structured Investing - A deliberate and thoughtful investment process designed to help you achieve your lifetime financial goals and focus on what matters most to you, whether it is putting your children through college, philanthropy or a secure retirement.
The document discusses how global insurers are rethinking their investment strategies in response to divergent monetary policies and quantitative easing programs. It finds that while insurers see positive short-term effects of QE on asset prices and growth, many are concerned about potential long-term imbalances and market distortions. Insurers are seeking to increase yield by taking on more risk, but are struggling due to low liquidity in fixed income markets and the lack of quality opportunities. They are holding high cash levels as they look for the right investments. Insurers are diversifying into alternative assets like real estate and private credit that generate income. Overall monetary policy uncertainty is a challenge as insurers balance short-term benefits of QE against
The newsletter discusses volatility in investment portfolios and argues that it should be seen as an opportunity rather than a risk. It presents evidence that volatility decreases significantly with increased investment time horizons and that the primary risk for long-term investors is the permanent loss of capital rather than temporary price fluctuations. The newsletter advocates for focusing on economic fundamentals over 3-5 year periods and distinguishing noise from signals when identifying investment opportunities created by market volatility.
Design, build, protect with Capital AssociatesMitch Katz
This document discusses Loring Ward's approach to financial planning and investment management. It outlines their three-step process of designing a tailored plan to meet clients' goals, building portfolios using academic research, and protecting plans by providing guidance. It promotes diversifying globally and incorporating small and value stocks. Charts show long-term stock market growth and benefits of rebalancing. The goal is helping clients achieve financial security and stay on track to reach their "someday."
Asset Allocation in Taxable PortfoliosWindham Labs
On Tuesday, September 26th, we hosted Lucas Turton for a discussion on Asset Allocation in Taxable Portfolios. Lucas explored how to estimate the future value of a portfolio by considering assets on an after-tax basis, asset allocation and location for optimal tax efficiency, and best practices for tax loss harvesting and navigating the wash sale rule.
The document provides an overview of the economic crisis that began in late 2007 and discusses recommendations for investors. It notes that the collapse of subprime lending and the housing bubble led to widespread credit problems and market declines. While the situation remains challenging, following principles like diversification and long-term perspective can help investors navigate volatile markets and find opportunities for future growth as the economy recovers.
- The document discusses whether the current stock market is in a bubble. It notes that by some measures like price-to-earnings ratios, stocks are not yet in bubble territory as they were in 2000.
- It provides several facts to counter the "hair on fire" media coverage of the stock market: there are no true market gurus, markets tend to rise over time, trying to time the market often fails, and cash is not king compared to long term investing in stocks.
- Even if a bubble forms, bubbles always burst eventually but stocks recover over time, so investors should stick to their plan and not panic during downturns.
Be sure to check the inflation and interest rate tide schedules update by Patrick Bowen, Maseco wealth manager, in the latest American in Britain magazine edition. Contact a Maseco financial advisor today to learn more about how we can help you achieve your financial goals. Click here to read the article.
- The document discusses new approaches to investment management that focus on risk awareness and absolute returns rather than benchmark returns. It summarizes recent volatility in traditional asset classes and the growth of absolute return funds in response. Absolute return funds aim to provide positive returns regardless of market conditions through diversification of investment strategies and philosophies rather than just asset types. The document argues for looking beyond traditional indexes to find investment opportunities and evaluating portfolios based on their allocation of risk rather than just asset types.
11 eaton vance volatility - the black widow returns123jumpad
Richard Bernstein warns that investors are again ignoring the risks of income investing strategies during a period of global credit deflation. He notes that high-yielding assets like MLPs, REITs, and emerging market debt have historically underperformed and faced higher risks during credit downturns. However, many investors continue to view them as "safe" or "opportunistic" despite abnormally high yields often indicating hidden risks. Bernstein argues sustainability of dividends and cash flows is more important than yield alone during the ongoing deflation of the global credit bubble. His portfolios focus on fundamentals suggesting continued dividend payments rather than stretching for income.
This document discusses the strategies and recent moves of Global Financial Private Capital, an SEC-registered investment advisory firm. It explains that the firm has taken a more defensive position by increasing cash levels in its portfolios to protect against rising volatility. While it's impossible to time a market correction, the firm is prepared to purchase securities if prices drop and sees the potential for a short-term correction later in the year due to political and economic factors. The defensive approach is meant to balance upside potential with downside protection.
The fund manager discusses how the Macquarie Income Opportunities Fund navigated volatile market conditions over the past year by taking several defensive steps: 1) It significantly reduced credit risk by exiting high yield and emerging markets, 2) It increased physical cash levels to preserve liquidity, and 3) It added interest rate duration to the fund as a hedge. These actions helped preserve investors' capital. Now that credit spreads have widened further, the manager believes the fund is well positioned to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities.
The document discusses maintaining a long-term perspective during periods of market volatility. It argues that trying to time the market is difficult and investors are better off remaining invested through downturns. While volatility can be unsettling, markets have historically delivered returns over long periods. The document advocates for diversification, rebalancing, and having patience as the best strategies for long-term investors.
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'emMark_Krygier
- Less Americans are investing in stocks since the 2000 tech bubble and 2008 recession, with the percentage of investors dropping from 60% to 52%.
- Investors must understand their own investment needs and timelines in order to make wise decisions about buying, holding, or selling investments during periods of price fluctuation.
- Short-term investments should be used for near-term needs while long-term investments suited for growth, like stocks and real estate, require ignoring short-term price changes.
Martin Becker's document discusses long term investment themes and their implications over the next 5 years. Key themes include: [1] continued economic stress in Europe and the US due to banking issues and deleveraging; [2] potential restructuring of the Eurozone; [3] lower returns from financial regulation; [4] increased volatility; and [5] stronger growth and returns from emerging markets like Asia. The implications are lower overall returns, higher volatility, a focus on capital preservation and yield, and seeking growth opportunities globally. The Australian dollar may also benefit long term from commodity demand despite short term uncertainty.
This document defines absolute return investing in fixed income strategies. It discusses that absolute return strategies aim to provide low correlation to traditional asset classes and positive returns regardless of market direction. For fixed income specifically, absolute return strategies aim to diversify fixed income exposure and add an alternative style to complement traditional fixed income. The document outlines key characteristics of absolute return fixed income strategies, including not eliminating interest rate and credit risk but being tactical in exposure, accessing returns uncorrelated to broader markets, employing risk management focused on potential losses, constructing portfolios that can perform in various scenarios, taking a systematic hedging approach, and being managed by experienced teams.
• Infrastructure—the other big fix
• What is the stock market saying about earnings?
• As short-term markets thaw, bond investors focus on long-term risk
• Hedge funds suffer their worst month ever
• Does a $1 trillion deficit matter?
• Q&A: Sizing up Obama’s policies and politics
CS Liquid Alternative Beta Performance Review 2013Brian Shapiro
The Credit Suisse Liquid Alternative Beta (“LAB”) Index, which seeks to replicate the
returns of the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, gained 7.35% for the year.
The Event Driven sub-strategy was the strongest performer, up 10.88%.
The document discusses concerns about the flattening of the yield curve in recent years. It defines the yield curve as plotting interest rates at various maturity points, traditionally sloping upward as investors require higher yields for longer-term lending. Recently, short-term rates have risen due to Fed actions while longer-term rates have remained low, causing the curve to flatten. An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the past 50 years, though the timing is inconsistent. While not inverted now, spreads are the narrowest in a decade and investors remain watchful.
The document discusses emerging markets and whether recent turmoil could lead to contagion as seen in 1997. It summarizes that while some emerging markets face issues like inflation and political unrest, economies are now stronger and the affected countries too small to significantly impact the US economy. The author believes recent emerging market weakness provides an excuse for investors to take profits after big gains in 2013, but that a correction would not be fundamentally driven given the ongoing economic recovery.
The 2023 investment outlook document discusses three main themes: navigating the polycrisis of inflation, recession and financial stability risks; implications of dollar dominance; and China's economic transition. It sees an 80% chance of a recession in major economies in 2023, with a cyclical shallow recession in the US as most likely. Inflation will remain elevated due to structural factors. Central banks face challenges in controlling inflation without causing severe economic downturns. The strong dollar poses headwinds globally. China is expected to gradually ease COVID restrictions and transition to a new growth model under its new leadership.
- The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a demand-driven economic shock that will likely drag the world into a recession if not contained within the next few months.
- Private equity funds are better positioned than public equities to weather an economic downturn due to their illiquid nature and longer-term investment horizons. However, private equity dealmaking may slow significantly as face-to-face interactions are important but now difficult.
- While private equity returns will be impacted, past downturns show they fall less than public equities, and distressed periods also create opportunities for specialist private equity strategies.
Hedgeye is pleased to share our Quarterly Investment Outlook for 4Q 2023.
In the these slides, prepared by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and his Macro team, we lay out the three essential Macro Themes we believe will drive market returns in the coming months.
There's a summary slide with all 3 themes, as well as supporting charts and data.
Each theme forms the foundation of our current investment conclusions and will augment your own investing process.
Best Regards,
Team Hedgeye
This document identifies 10 trends shaping the investment management industry in a world of low interest rates, high volatility, and high correlations between asset classes. The key trends are the search for yield driving demand for credit and dividend-paying stocks; the debate around whether equities can still outperform with their high volatility; the growth of risk-minimizing multi-asset strategies; the shift to passive index funds and ETFs; and declining performance of hedge funds. Understanding how investor behavior is changing in response to these trends will be important for investment managers and can provide insights into future asset prices.
- After interviewing their investment manager partners, the consensus is one of cautious optimism about further stock market gains, but managers note the path remains precarious.
- Managers favor value stocks over growth and are underexposed to emerging markets and commodities despite recent strength in those areas.
- Within fixed income, emerging market bonds are becoming more attractive due to US dollar weakness.
- Government bonds are viewed more as portfolio insurance than a source of return given their low yields.
ET - Let your investment strategy decide your mutual fund - 12-10-2008Shruti Jain
This document provides guidance on analyzing company fundamentals and interpreting key metrics to make informed investment decisions in stocks. It discusses different types of analysis including fundamental analysis, which examines historical performance data to forecast future performance, and technical analysis, which uses mathematical models and patterns to predict price movements. The document advises analyzing sector and company fundamentals through tools like ratio analysis along with incorporating technical analysis indicators. It also discusses factors like volatility indexes and market sentiment. Overall, the document aims to help layperson investors understand different analytical approaches and make well-informed choices.
The document outlines Joe Kostner's final decision checklist that he uses before making an investment. It contains 8 items that evaluate whether the decision maker is tired, has done sufficient research, understands the business, has conservative balance sheet and good management, provides value to customers, has downside protection from a moat or assets, and has significantly more upside than downside potential. The checklist is meant to help stay disciplined and avoid mistakes by fully understanding a business before investment.
- Howard Marks is a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. In his new book "Mastering the Market Cycle", he emphasizes the importance of understanding where the market stands in its cycle and managing risk accordingly.
- While it is impossible to precisely predict market movements, Marks believes investors can gain an edge by studying historical cycles and assessing the current environment to determine if conditions present better or worse odds. This allows calibrating risk exposure along a continuum rather than reacting with all-in or all-out approaches.
- A key theme is that periods of excessive optimism and high valuations late in an upcycle pose risks, while times of pessimism and recovery early in a cycle offer comparatively better
This memo discusses how securities markets seem to be moving toward reducing the role of people through three trends: 1) index/passive investing and ETFs, 2) quantitative/algorithmic investing, and 3) artificial intelligence and machine learning. It provides background on the rise of index funds and passive investing since the 1960s. While passive investing avoids costs and errors, it also means no one is analyzing companies or prices. The memo questions what will happen to active investing and stock prices as passive investing continues to grow. It argues that active investors currently set stock prices, and passive investors benefit, but prices may diverge more from value as passive investing increases.
1) Many institutional investors are increasing their allocations to private equity investments in hopes of boosting returns and closing funding gaps, as public market returns are expected to be lower.
2) However, private equity has grown significantly in recent years with $5 trillion in assets and $1 trillion in uninvested capital, driving up prices and deal multiples.
3) Studies show that private equity returns have mainly come from leverage rather than operational improvements, and that it is getting harder to consistently achieve top returns given increased competition.
1) The document presents a "Moat Map" that plots companies on two spectrums based on their business models: the degree of supplier differentiation and the extent to which network effects are internalized or externalized.
2) Facebook and Google are shown to have highly internalized network effects and commoditized suppliers, while Apple and Microsoft have more differentiated suppliers and externalized network effects.
3) The map is used to analyze companies' strategic positions and potential "moats" based on where they fall within these two dimensions. Being outside the map, like Uber, makes defending market position more difficult.
Sumantra Ghoshal discusses how the context or "smell" of a company's culture can profoundly impact employee behaviors and performance. Specifically, he contrasts a culture of "constraint, compliance, control, and contract" which feels oppressive like the summer heat of Calcutta, versus one of "stretch, discipline, trust and support" which feels invigorating like the forest in Fontainebleau. Ghoshal's research found that high-performing companies are able to intentionally cultivate a culture characterized by the latter dimensions, and that with determination a company can shift its cultural context over time.
Jim Chanos is the founder of Kynikos Associates, one of the largest fundamental short selling hedge funds. He became involved in short selling after correctly identifying a fraud as an analyst in the 1980s. Chanos believes short selling provides an important check on markets and enables long investors to take on more risk. Rather than viewing his fund as benefiting from market declines, Chanos sees it as providing "insurance" to investors by hedging downside risk and allowing clients to increase their long exposure. He manages risk by operating different funds, including a market neutral long/short fund and a fund that maintains a net long position despite holding significant short positions.
Marcus Lemonis invests in failing small businesses on the reality show "The Profit" and implements simple management changes to turn them around. These changes, such as focusing production on best-selling high margin products, improving organization and inventory tracking, are effective because management matters greatly. Studies show that management interventions can significantly and sustainably improve productivity and profits through such basic methods. Personal problems within family-owned businesses also often undermine their management and efficiency.
Companies need a strategy that fits the predictability and malleability of their sector. With an increasing amount of industries being subject to disruption it’s a fair bet that the strategic adaptability needs to increase.
The immediate effect of management skill might be larger in a turn-around candidate but it also requires skill to fortify the moats that long term keep competitors at bay.
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2017 09-04 rafi
1. FUNDAMENTALS
™
September 2015
United States and Canada
Hewes Communications
+ 1 (212) 207-9450
hewesteam@hewescomm.com
Europe
JPES Partners (London)
+44 (0) 20 7520 7620
ra@jpespartners.com
Media Contacts
Chris Brightman, CFA
Momentum investors are like the surfers we
watch from beaches along the Pacific coast.
Both must catch a wave. Both attempt to
ride it as it breaks. But the ability to glide
away smoothly before being caught inside
the inevitable crash(ing wave) that follows
is what determines success.
Momentum, one of a handful of equity
factors that empirically displays robust
equity returns, has recently become popular
as investors explore factor investing. In the
passive realm, investors are increasingly
seeking to replicate cheap and transparent
indices. But does index replication make
sense in the case of momentum?
We believe a momentum strategy
implemented through an index-based
approach has serious limitations. And
although some active managers are quite
adept at riding the momentum wave, it
does require significant experience and skill.
Our view is that momentum as an index
replication strategy can be very dangerous,
but incorporating it into an active value
strategy is an opportune way to exploit its
insights.
Catching the Wave
The investment industry borrowed the term
“momentum” from the physical sciences.
In physics, momentum is defined as mass
(such as ocean water) in motion. When
used in the sense of investing, momentum
refers to movement in stock prices.
Several explanations exist for the energy that
creates the prolonged movement of stock
prices higher or lower. The most convinc-
ing explanation in our view is that investors
initially underreact to earnings surprises.
Chordia and Shivakumar (2006) and Novy-
Marx (2015) have shown that earnings
momentum explains most of the momen-
tum effect. Investors are at first slow to react
to an unexpected uptick or downtick in earn-
ings. But when the next earnings data are
reported and they confirm the prior report,
investors register the potential importance
of the change in trend. If earnings are higher
than expected, the momentum in price is
upward. Subsequent confirming earnings
releases may even cause euphoria and
over-extrapolation of future earnings fore-
casts, reinforcing the fast-moving upward
trajectory. The momentum investor benefits
as the price reacts to subsequent earnings
announcements and moves higher. Price
momentum can also move in the opposite
direction—down—with correspondingly
negative outcomes for investors. We will
discuss this “fly in the sunscreen” in the next
section.
Investors have good reason to want to catch
the momentum wave. History shows that
stocks with above-average performance
in the prior year have tended to persist in
producing short-term excess returns. This
tendency is one of the strongest empirical
regularities in finance and has been docu-
mented across geographies and asset classes.
How NOT to Wipe Out with Momentum
Chris Brightman, CFA, Vitali Kalesnik, Ph.D., and Engin Kose, Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
1. Implementation costs and front
running make an index replica-
tion strategy inadvisable as a
means to capture the momen-
tum premium.
2. The pros (proven profitability
and robustness) of momentum
can swiftly be wiped out by the
cons (crashes and crowded
trades), making an active imple-
mentation dangerous for all but
the most skilled managers.
3. Combining value and momen-
tum in order to exploit their
typically negative correlation
in stock holdings and alpha can
improve a portfolio’s Sharpe
ratio over those of either strat-
egy alone.
A momentum
strategy implemented
through an index-
based approach has
serious limitations.
“
“
2. September 2015
2Page
FUNDAMENTALS
620 Newport Center Drive, Suite 900 | Newport Beach, CA 92660 | + 1 (949) 325 - 8700 | www.researchaffiliates.com
Table 1 reports the average perfor-
mance of momentum equity portfolios
constructed for different definitions of
momentum1
and in different geographi-
cal markets: the United States, Europe,
Japan, Asia Pacific ex Japan, and Global.
Momentum has consistently added
value across markets, with the widely
known exception of Japan, an outlier
we would expect for any strategy with
inherent randomness.
The data also show that the risk–return
characteristics of momentum are robust
across time periods. Figure 1 plots the
growth of one U.S. dollar invested in a
long–short momentum strategy in Janu-
ary 1927. By the end of the 87-year period
in June 2015, it had grown quite steadily
to a formidable $6,524, which compares
to $4,078 for the market portfolio.
Wiping Out
Buying into positive price momentum—
that is, purchasing a stock whose
price subsequently and steadily
rises—generates a capital gain for an
investor. The catch is that, as in physics,
what goes up must come down. The
perfectly breaking 15-foot wave can
quickly become dangerous and deadly.
chart)thesuddenandabruptdrawdowns
that a momentum investor must live
with. These drawdowns usually occur
following periods of heightened volatility,
typically a function of a crisis event.
Since 1927, drawdowns have generally
been under 20%, but the granddaddy
of all drawdowns was the 74% plunge
in prices in the aftermath of the Great
Depression. In the last 15 years, the U.S.
equity market has been visited with two
major negative momentum events: the
first, a 31% drawdown after the tech
bubble burst in 2000, and the second, a
57% drawdown, in the wake of the 2008
global financial crisis.
In a crash, the price momentum is
typically concentrated in groups of
stocks that the market particularly
loathes and fears more than others,
often distressed companies with high
betas. These recent losers are sold as
the negative momentum continues,
until investors, satisfied with the new
state of the world, view these stocks as
cheap enough to be great investment
opportunities. As the market shifts its
perspective, the most-feared losers with
high betas recover with a vengeance and
momentum investors are off to catch
another wave.
Predicting when that turning point will
be, just as forecasting when the turning
point in the price momentum of a
particular stock or asset class will arrive,
is no easy task. Missing that turning
point can mean not only not locking in a
gain, but more insidiously being “caught
inside the wave,” unable to sell before
the downside of a momentum trend
takes hold in the market. Accordingly,
two predominant risks characterize
a momentum strategy: substantial
drawdowns, or crashes, and a crowded
momentum trade, which makes the
trading costs high enough to obliterate
the alpha of the strategy for the careless
momentum surfer. Let’s take a closer
look at both of these.
The crashes periodically experienced in
a momentum strategy can be significant,
as Figure 2 shows. The relentless upward
climb of prices depicted in Figure 1
disguises (thanks to the log-scale of the
Region and Definition
Recent Winners Recent Losers t-stat of
Long–ShortReturn Volatility Return Volatility
United States −2 to −12 months 15.6% 18.5% 6.3% 22.0% 3.74***
United States −2 to −12 months, 3-month hold 14.5% 18.7% 6.6% 21.6% 3.36***
United States −2 to −6 months 13.0% 18.3% 8.4% 21.9% 1.83*
Europe −2 to −12 months 14.8% 17.1% 2.0% 21.5% 3.89***
Japan −2 to −12 months 2.5% 20.8% 0.3% 24.4% 0.45
Asia Pacific ex Japan −2 to −12 months 16.1% 22.1% 3.4% 26.3% 3.41***
Global −2 to −12 months 13.0% 16.1% 4.2% 19.1% 2.77***
* Significant at the 10% level.
** Significant at the 5% level.
*** Significant at the 1% level.
Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from the website of Kenneth French. The performances are reported for the following
periods: United States, 1967–2014; Europe, Japan, and Global, 1987–2014.
Table 1. Pervasiveness of Momentum
Momentum has
consistently added
value across markets,
with the widely known
exception of Japan.
“
“
3. September 2015
3Page
FUNDAMENTALS
620 Newport Center Drive, Suite 900 | Newport Beach, CA 92660 | + 1 (949) 325 - 8700 | www.researchaffiliates.com
Figure 1. Growth of One U.S. Dollar Invested in a Long–Short Momentum Strategy,
Including the Risk-Free Asset as Collateral, January 1927–June 2015
0
1
10
100
1000
10000
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
$6524
GrowthofUS$(log-scale)
Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from the website of Kenneth French.
Figure 2. Drawdowns of a Momentum Strategy, January 1927–June 2015
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
-74% – Recovery from
Great Depression
-31% – Recovery from
Tech Bubble Burst
-57% – Recovery
from GFC
Drawdown(inpercent)
Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from the website of Kenneth French.
Note: The strategy is a momentum long–short portfolio with the risk-free asset as collateral.
4. September 2015
4Page
FUNDAMENTALS
620 Newport Center Drive, Suite 900 | Newport Beach, CA 92660 | + 1 (949) 325 - 8700 | www.researchaffiliates.com
Crowded surf can create frustration
as surfers compete for waves, leading
to low wave counts and disappointing
rides. The same experience looms for
investors who chase the momentum
trade. Momentum investors face the
probability of a lower return as they
“crowdin”topurchaseastockbenefitting
from positive momentum, which pushes
the price up beyond fair value. When
the momentum trend begins to reverse,
momentum investors face the risk of
not being able to sell at a reasonable
price as large numbers “crowd out” to
liquidate their positions. Essentially, the
higher the price goes, the more investors
are attracted to the trade, lowering its
potential return except to the earliest
adopters. Likewise, the lower the price
goes, the faster investors seek to exit the
trade, putting significant pressure on the
price and the market’s ability to absorb
the extent of the selling interest.
The substantial risk from these
interrelated forces—drawdowns and the
crowded trade—act as a very practical
and meaningful deterrent to more
widespread adoption of a momentum
investing strategy, even though it has
been proven to be robustly profitable.
Being cognizant of these risks, how can
an investor best exploit the insights of a
momentum strategy?
Navigating Dangerous
Currents
A surfer knows to look for rip currents
that can push her away from shore.
In investing, particularly in passive
strategies, dangerous currents lurk in the
implementation process. One of these
currents, the far from trivial price impact
of rebalancing in popular indices, has
been studied by a number of researchers:
Shilfer (1986), Harris and Gurel (1986),
Arnott and Vincent (1986), Goetzmann
andGarry(1986),Jain(1987),Lamoureux
and Wansley (1987), and Lynch and
Mendenhall (1997), among others.
Other researchers, including Novy-
Marx and Velikov (2014) and Hsu et
al. (forthcoming), have estimated the
trading costs associated with index-like
implementation of a momentum strategy.
Hsu and his co-authors calculate the
value added by a momentum strategy
before and after transaction costs, as
reported in Table 2. The calculation
shows that trading costs are higher than
the potential benefits from the strategy.
[A caveat: We do not believe this to be
true in the case of an active manager with
strong expertise in trading.2
]
The practical implication of tracking an
index, regardless of factor, is that when
one investor places her rebalancing
trades, all the other investors tracking
the same index are also placing their
rebalancing trades. Consequently, these
investors are competing for the same
stocks at the same time, generating
upward pressure on price. When the
factor is momentum, this phenomenon
is aggravated by the fact that, in order to
squeeze the highest performance out of
a momentum strategy, turnover of close
to 100% a month is required. Thus, in
the hands of inefficient implementers
or automated indices, high turnover can
mean high cost.
Other currents that plague the
implementation of passive strategies
are the required transparency and broad
disclosure of index rules. With today’s
state-of-the-art technology, modern-day
front runners are able to reproduce index
calculations and implement trades well
before rebalancing announcements are
made by the index calculator. Therefore,
spreading trades over time cannot
remedy the problem of prices pushed
up significantly by front-running activity.
As such, the front runners will enjoy
the factor premium—in this case, the
momentum premium—and the index
investors will provide this premium to
them.
Riding the Curl
A pure momentum strategy, as we have
justoutlined,hasbothpros(demonstrated
profitability and robustness) and cons
Region and Definition
$10B, Large-Cap Portfolio $1B, Small-Cap Portfolio
Value Add vs.
Market, Before
Transaction
Costs
Value Add vs.
Market, After
Transaction
Costs
Value Add vs.
Market, Before
Transaction
Costs
Value Add vs.
Market, After
Transaction
Costs
United States −2 to −12 months 2.7% −3.4% 5.2% 0.4%
United States −2 to −12 months, 3-month hold 2.0% −1.6% 3.7% 0.7%
United States −2 to −6 months 0.0% −9.7% 2.7% −5.2%
Average 1.6% −4.9% 3.9% −1.4%
Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using CRSP/Compustat and Worldscope/Datastream data from Hsu et al. (forthcoming).
Table 2. Value Add of Momentum Strategies Before and After Trading Costs
5. September 2015
5Page
FUNDAMENTALS
620 Newport Center Drive, Suite 900 | Newport Beach, CA 92660 | + 1 (949) 325 - 8700 | www.researchaffiliates.com
(crashes and crowded trades). One
strong “pro” we have yet to mention
is the contribution that momentum
can make to a value strategy. Adding
momentum to a value strategy is similar
to a surfer riding “peaky” waves that
will give him a lengthy and exciting ride,
leaving others to surf “close-out” waves
with short, dull rides.
In a value strategy, investors sometimes
find themselves trading against momen-
tum. As a stock becomes cheaper, a
value strategy suggests buying more of
it, the exact opposite of what a momen-
tum strategy suggests. Not surpris-
ingly, value and momentum strategies
are usually negatively correlated both
in terms of stock holdings and alpha.
Exploiting this negative correlation is
essentially riding the curl—a value strat-
egy conditioned on momentum. The
combined strategy generally trades like
a value strategy, but with purchases and
sales delayed to benefit from momen-
tum’s impact on prices. The addition of
momentum need not boost turnover
relative to a value investing strategy, and
therefore, need not incur the high trading
costs of a momentum strategy.
Table 3 illustrates that combining value
and momentum in a single strategy
leads to significant improvements in
portfolio risk–return characteristics.
The improvements, largely attributable
to consistent negative correlation that
varies between −0.2 and −0.4, are
robust. As shown in Table 3, the 50%
value/50% momentum strategy’s
Sharpe ratios are markedly higher than
those for either strategy alone, indicating
that a value strategy conditioned on
momentum produces a significantly
improved risk–return trade-off across
regions, with the exception of Japan.
Pipelining Momentum
On paper, a momentum-based index
against which active managers can
benchmark makes sense—momentum
is an important market driver that
cannot be ignored. But in our opinion,
passive implementation of a momentum
strategy is not advisable. Front runners
and high transaction costs, a function
of the strategy’s required high turnover,
largely destroy the potential benefits of a
momentum-based passive portfolio.
Certainly, an active implementation of a
momentum strategy, which incorporates a
careful study of liquidity, makes sense for
some investors. The more sophisticated
investors who are aware of the strategy’s
risks of crashes and crowded trades
can benefit, but only when carefully
implemented. Thus, the implementation
capabilities of an active manager of a
momentum strategy should be reviewed
just as rigorously as, if not more so, the
manager’s trading expertise.
In our view, both passive and active
standalone momentum-based strategies
have the potential to wipe out the value
add that the momentum premium can
bring to a portfolio. But incorporating
momentum into a value strategy can open
a performance pipeline for the investor who
can make a clean escape as the wave closes
behind him, crashing on the investors who
are not exploiting momentum’s insights in
a similar way.
Average
Return
Average
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlations
between
Value and
Momentum
Sharpe
Ratio of the
50/50 Mix
United States
Momentum 6.79% 16.42% 0.41
-0.40 0.78
Value 4.02% 12.25% 0.33
Europe
Momentum 10.47% 14.07% 0.74
-0.28 1.08
Value 4.15% 8.34% 0.50
Japan
Momentum 0.17% 15.66% 0.01
-0.22 0.35
Value 4.62% 9.60% 0.48
Asia Pacific ex Japan
Momentum 9.94% 15.88% 0.63
-0.31 1.12
Value 6.85% 10.66% 0.64
Global
Momentum 6.68% 13.65% 0.50
-0.26 0.83
Value 3.84% 8.00% 0.48
Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from the website of Kenneth French. The performances are reported for the following periods:
United States: January 1927–June 2015; Europe, Japan, and Global: November 1990–June 2015.
Table 3. Sharpe Ratios and Correlation of Value and Momentum Strategies and 50/50 Mix
Combining value
and momentum in a
single strategy leads to
significant improvements
in portfolio risk–return
characteristics.
“
“