2012 Crystal Ball Conference Power Point
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This document summarizes a Crystal Ball Conference presentation on the Arizona housing market. It notes declines in home listings, REOs, short sales, and normal listings of 68-83% in greater Phoenix. It discusses the "shadow inventory" of homes that have not yet hit the market after being purchased by third parties or reverted to beneficiaries as new REOs. Arizona now has the largest decline in home loan delinquencies of any state at 32.1%. Charts show Arizona has fallen in rankings of non-current home loans and homes in foreclosure. The document concludes by noting Bank of America's plans to increase their short sales by 60-70% in 2012 with an expanded staff of 3,000 to handle more short
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2012 Crystal Ball Conference Power Point
- 1. Crystal Ball Conference November 3, 2011 Presented by: Steve de Laveaga Information prepared by Michael Orr, founder of the “Cromford Report” © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com
- 3. © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com HUD Listings - down 83% REOs - down 68% Short Sales - down 72% Normal Listings - down 33%
- 4. Greater Phoenix © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com
- 6. Greater Phoenix © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com
- 10. Purchased by Third Party Reverted to Beneficiary New REOs 1,280 © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com
- 12. Arizona home loan delinquency is down 32.1% This is more than any other state! Source: Lender Processing Services Mortgage Monitor © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com
- 13. Arizona Ranking February 2010 August 2011 • Non-current home loans • Non-current home loans – # 3 (after FL, NV) – # 24 • Late but not in foreclosure • Late but not in foreclosure – # 6 (FL, NV, GA, MS, MI) – # 27 • In foreclosure • In foreclosure – # 4 (FL, NV, NJ) – # 18 © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com
- 14. Bank of America Gears up for 2012 Short Sales Plans to increase their short sales next year by 60 - 70%. They now have over 3,000 people in their short sale division to help handle the increase in short sale volume. © 2011 www.cromfordreport.com
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Editor's Notes
- All types of properties not just Single family residencesSupply reached peak Nov 2010Decreased steadily from 37,592 to 17,729 in last 12 months47% decline in overall listings
- -% of change in active listings by category in the last 12 months-recently, normal listings have increased while REO & SS decreased- The idea of a “glut of foreclosed homes flooding the market” does not apply to Phoenix
- -over the last 3 years short sales have grown from an insignificant number to over 30% of all sales in Sept of 2011
- AWC only in this chartShort Sales that have received contract, waiting on bank approvalAWC considerably higher that 12 months ago% of active listings with contingent contract has gone from 2-3% for normal, 3-8% for REO and 31%-67% for short sales--- 36% increase!!!!
- From June of 2009 SS listing success rate was 18% and has grown remarkably to 67% as of Sept 2011
- REOs disappearing from contracts in escrow from 45% to under 32%Replaced by SS and pre-foreclosures (now over 40%)Normal listings less than 28% of the escrowsIf we combine pending & AWC Short Sale dominance is even more striking
- No matter how its defined, shadow inventory has been tumbling fast over last 12 months1. Pending foreclosures- NOS delivered but no sale yet or cancellation of sale posted2. Unlisted REOs- properties that went back to bank but not yet listed for sale3. Active REO listings on ARMLSPending foreclosures fell 15,620 in 11 months – 43% declineActive REOs fell from 6122-2038– 67% declineBackstory- lenders failing to file Affadavits of Value and instead claiming an exemption from being required to file.False exemption claims and missing affidavits are primarily a result of out of state title companies who do not know or follow AZ law
- A bell curve is starting to show which indicated trustees sales are now in a declining trendMaricopa County, trustee sales are starting to slowTrustees sales started to peak in 09 and have started declining at beginning of this year
- Trustees sales slowing b/c third parties are increasingly winning trustee auctions so that more homes never make it to “REO status”Sept 2011, 1280 SFR in Mar County became new REOs which is the lowest number since Nov 2007!!!
- This shows % of loans that are delinquent by 30 days +, or are already in foreclosureNormal level is about 4.5% deliquent by 30 days or more and only 0.5% in foreclosureAZ has fallen from a peak % of 16 down to below 11% (only about 6% above average)The lowest % since January 2010
- ARIZONA’s delinquency rates have IMPROVED MORE IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS THAN ANY OTHER STATE IN THE NATIONDue to our banks and servicers being accommodating regarding short sales, deeds in lieu and preforeclosure activity
- Closing notes:The era of foreclosures is about 80% complete based on this data, while the era of the short sale is just coming into maturityREOs clearly in decline Normal listings risingSS staying steady at 40-42% of the total listingsSS are showing that they will become dominant and are receiving higher success rates
- From CDPE Alex Charfen and Bob Hora Interview broadcast live online 10/26
- KNOWLEDGE IS VALUE