The document provides an overview of Embraer's market forecast methodology and the business jet market outlook. It summarizes Embraer's approach to determining external and internal scenarios, evaluating third party forecasts, conducting customer research, and analyzing results to develop forecasts. Charts show projections for segments like super-midsize and large business jets, as well as projected market share for manufacturers like Embraer. Comparisons of Embraer aircraft specifications and other models are also included.

1. Analysts & Investors
Meeting
Feb 21, 2002

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Contents
• Our Forecast Method
• Scenario
• Market Overview
• Legacy in the market
• Legacy Product
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Market Forecast Methodology
• Determine External Scenario
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Market Forecast Methodology
• Determine External Scenario
• Examine Internal Scenario
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Market Forecast Methodology
• Determine External Scenario
• Examine Internal Scenario
• Evaluate Business Jet Forecasts from Outside
Sources (Top Down Analysis)
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Market Forecast Methodology
• Determine External Scenario
• Examine Internal Scenario
• Evaluate Business Jet Forecasts from Outside
Sources (Top Down Analysis)
• Perform Customer Focused Research /Survey (Bottom-up
Analysis)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER S.A. AND IT SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED IN ANY MANNER EXCEPT WITH EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.

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Market Forecast Methodology
• Determine External Scenario
• Examine Internal Scenario
• Evaluate Business Jet Forecasts from Outside
Sources (Top Down Analysis)
• Perform Customer Focused Research /Survey (Bottom-up
Analysis)
• Analyze Results and Make Forecast for Inclusion in Action Plan
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Scenario Overview
Ø Corporate Aviation Market has been strong and robust one
Ø Main drivers
- Fractional/ownership demand/expansion
- Globalization
- Security issues
- New models with more performance and comfort
- Airline service insatisfaction
Ø Corporate Aircraft: tool to leverage business (Arthur Andersen Study @
nbaa.org)
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Scenario Overview
Ø After Sep 11: new security measures, increased interest in business aviation, new
program launches and competitors movements in business expansion
Ø Business aviation historical data demonstrates that this sector has important
participation in economy rebound
Ø Our current sales are better than previously estimated in our business plan.
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Worldwide Corporate A/C Fleet
Market share by manufacturer
1,219 378
Forecast for the period of 2000 to 2010 (4%)
(11%)
7,985
11774 +78 = 236 a/c on average/year)
(158
(74%)
(70%)
392 67
USA: 7,716
USA: 7,716 (4%) (1%)
Mexico: 355
MEXICO:
Brasil: 258
BRASIL:258 204
469 (4%) (2%)
Source: AIN
Source: Flight International
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Total Market Forecast
Market History and 10 years Forecast
900 840
800 742
686
700
600
Honeywell
500
TEAL
400
RR
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 Average 2002-2011
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Market Segmentation 2002
Global
• BBJ
$ 46 - 50.0M
• Airbus 319 CJ
• G V- SP
$ 40 - 45.0M Ultra-L o n g R a n g e • Global Express
• Challenger 604
• Falcon 900
$22.0 - 31.0M Large •
•
G IV- SP
Envoy 7
• Falcon FNX
$20.3M
Citation X • Falcon 50
$13.0 - 22.0M Supermidsize Falcon 2000 • G200
Continental • Horizon
Hawker 800 XP • G100
$11.0 - 13.0M Midsize Lear 60 • Citation VII • Sovereign
$8.0 – 8.5M Midlight Ultra/Encore • Excel
$5.0 - 7.0M Light Beechjet 400A • Lear 31 • Bravo
Citation Jet • CJ1 • CJ2 •
$3.0 - 5.0M Entry S J -30 • Premier
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Supermidsize Segment Forecast
Supermidsize Forecast - TEAL
200
174 173
180 158
160 138 143
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 Average 2002-
2011
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Large Segment Forecast
Large Segment Forecast – Teal
100
80
60
40
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Average: 78 A/C / year
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Projected Market Share by Manufacturer
Market share by manufacturer
Forecast for the period of 2000 to 2010
(158 +78 = 236 a/c on average/year)
17% 10% Bombardier
10% General Dynamics
Dassault
17% Cessna
23% Raytheon
23%
Embraer (over 240 A/C)
Source: AIN
Source: Embraer Corporate Jets
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Worldwide Aircraft Orders
Country Firm Orders Options Total
USA - Executive 34 35 69
USA- Shuttle 32 56 88
Europe- Exec. 1 - 1
Latin America - Exec. 6 3 9
Total 73 94 167
Current as of Jan 2002
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Fuel Capacity - Executive
Aft Internal Tanks
2,734 lbs.
1,242 kg.
Fwd Under Belly Tanks
3,765 lbs.
1,706 kg
Each Wing Tank
11,403 lbs.
5,171 kg.
* Assumed fuel density 6.7lb/US gal (0.803kg/l)
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Supermidsize – Floor Plan Comparison
Continental
Horizon
Gulfstream 200
ft 10 20 30 40 50
m 3 6 9 12 15
Source: Conklin & de Decker’s “The Aircraft Comparator”
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Supermidsize – Cross Section Comparison
Gulfstream 200
Horizon
Continental
Cabin dimensions (ft.)
Width Height Aisle Recess
Continental 7’2“ (2.18m) 6’1” (1.85m)
Horizon 6’7” (2m) 6’0” (1.82m)
Gulfstream 200 7’2” (2.18m) 6’3” (1.9m) 6” (0.15m)
Legacy 6’11”(2.1m) 6’0” (1.83m) 2” (0..05m)
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Large – Floor Plan Comparison
Falcon 2000
G IV SP
ft 10 20 30 40 50
m 3 6 9 12 15
Source: Conklin & de Decker’s “The Aircraft Comparator”
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Large – Cross Section Comparison
Gulfstream IVSP
Falcon 2000
Cabin dimensions (ft.)
Width Height
Falcon 2000 7’7” (2.3m) 6’2” (1.87m)
G-IV-SP 7’3” (2.2m) 6’2” (1.87m)
Legacy 6’11” (2.1m) 6’0” (1.83m)
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Second Seating Area
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Best Value
Aircraft Cabin Volume Baggage Range Price
(cu.ft./ m3) (nm) (US $M)
Continental 860/ 24.3 120 / 3.40 3,168 15.3
Horizon 757/ 21.4 110 / 3.11 3,100 16.1
Citation X 508/ 14.3 72 / 2.04 3,062 18.6
Gulfstream 200 870/ 24.6 150 / 4.25 3,670 18.7
Falcon 50EX 700/ 19.8 115 / 3.25 3,366 18.8
Legacy 1,410/ 39.9 240/ 6.79 3,200 20.3
Falcon 2000 1,024/ 28.9 134 / 3.79 3,213 21.1
Challenger 604 1,035/ 29.3 115 / 3.25 4,033 23.2
Falcon 900C 1,267/ 35.8 127 / 3.58 4,000 28.7
G-IV-SP 1,525/ 43.1 169 / 4.78 4,105 32.1
Source: Business and Commercial Aviation May 2001
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Range - Executive New York Next
Takeoff at ISA +20
Mach 0.80
85% annual winds
10 pax @ 200 lb
NBAA reserves
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Range - Executive São Paulo- Guarulhos Next
Takeoff at ISA +20
Mach 0.80
85% annual winds
10 pax @ 200 lb
NBAA reserves
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Range - Executive Paris Next
Takeoff at ISA +20
Mach 0.80
85% annual winds
10 pax @ 200 lb
NBAA reserves
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Direct Operating Costs - Executive
Operating Costs per Flight Hour:
Fuel (325 gal/hr @ $2.40/gal.) $ 780
(4) (1)
Airframe Maintenance (includes parts) $ 194
(2)
APU Maintenance $ 17
(3)
Engine Reserve $ 252
TOTAL per hour costs $ 1,243
(1) 1.42 maintenance labor hrs / flight hr, assumed labor rate @ $65 / hr, 5 year
cost, 503 flight hr/y and 1.73 FH/FC
(2) APU use based on 0.75 AH/FH
(3) Power by the Hour –Rolls Royce, On-Condition maintenance
(4) Does not include interior coverage
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32. *
Price - Executive Configuration $20,275,000
Jan 2002 Economic Conditions
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Corporate Shuttle
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Range - Shuttle Dallas
Takeoff at ISA +20
Mach 0.78
85% annual winds
19 pax @ 200 lb
NBAA reserves
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Direct Operating Costs - Executive
Operating Costs per Flight Hour:
Fuel (310 gal/hr @ $2.40/gal.) $ 744
(4) (1)
Airframe Maintenance (includes parts) $ 151
(2)
APU Maintenance $ 15
(3)
Engine Reserve $ 252
TOTAL per hour costs $ 1,162
(1) 0.71 maintenance labor hrs / flight hr, assumed labor rate @ $65 / hr, 5 year
cost, 1,200 flight hr/y and 1.4 FH/FC
(2) APU use based on 1.0 AH/FH
(3) Power by the Hour –Rolls Royce, On-Condition maintenance
(4) Does not include interior coverage
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37. Price - Corporate Shuttle $15,650,000 * * January 2001 Economic Conditions
* Jan 2002 Economic Conditions
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Legacy Main Features
Built to operate within typical airline schedule of
2,500 – 3,000 hours per year:
−Minimum downtime for inspections
−Ease of maintenance
−High reliability
The largest Baggage volume in its class
Fully integrated Honeywell Primus 1000 avionics
system
Powerplant: Rolls-Royce AE 3007 family
Sundstrand APU for complete operational
independence
Cockpit panel allows fast access, lowering
maintenance costs
Large cabin with several options for pax comfort
Derived from a successful platform which family
transported over 15 million people in the world
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39. The Business Jet for the New Economy