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March 19,2019
ACCJ BANKING, FINANCE & CAPITAL MARKETS COMMITTEE MEETING
ExeTrust Co., Ltd.
Shige Kawata
1
Goldilocks again? 9/20
2930
12/24 2351
Very early signs of a possible economic recovery?
*Harpex Shipping Index bottomed in late January.
*Bloomberg Base Metal Spot Price Index has gained 6.8% this year.
*The Baltic Dry Index has started ticking higher
10 Year Treasury Note ‘14/3-’19/3 past 5 years
2018-2019
Dow S&P500 Nasdaq Nasdaq100
2018/9/20 (Thu.) High 26,657 2,931 8,028 7,569
2018/2/24 (Mon.) Low 21,729 2,351 6,193 5,899
Decline (%) -18.5% -19.8% -22.9% -22.1%
Latest (3/19) 25,914 2,833 7,714 7,326
(12/24→3/19) 19.3% 20.5% 24.6% 24.2%
% to September high 2.9% 3.5% 4.1% 3.3%
3/19 2833
‘18/11/8 3.24%
‘19/3/19 2.601%
‘16/7/8 1.355%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1 2
The estimated earnings decline for the
S&P 500 for Q1 2019 is -3.4%.
For companies that generate > 50% of
sales inside the U.S.=+1.0%.
For companies that generate l<50% of
sales inside the U.S=-11.2%.
During the first 2 months of 1Q, analysts lowered
earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the
Q→dropped by 6.5%
*past 5 years (20 Qs), →2.4%.
*past 10 years, (40 Qs)→2.8%.
*past 15 years, (60 Qs)→2.9%.
The estimated revenue growth rate for
the S&P 500 for Q1 2019 is 4.9%.
For companies that generate >50% of
sales inside the U.S., =6.5%.
For companies that generate <50% of
sales inside the U.S., =+0.7%.
’15 1Q -8% ’16 1Q >-8%
’19 1Q -6.5%

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190319 Reference

  • 1. March 19,2019 ACCJ BANKING, FINANCE & CAPITAL MARKETS COMMITTEE MEETING ExeTrust Co., Ltd. Shige Kawata 1 Goldilocks again? 9/20 2930 12/24 2351 Very early signs of a possible economic recovery? *Harpex Shipping Index bottomed in late January. *Bloomberg Base Metal Spot Price Index has gained 6.8% this year. *The Baltic Dry Index has started ticking higher 10 Year Treasury Note ‘14/3-’19/3 past 5 years 2018-2019 Dow S&P500 Nasdaq Nasdaq100 2018/9/20 (Thu.) High 26,657 2,931 8,028 7,569 2018/2/24 (Mon.) Low 21,729 2,351 6,193 5,899 Decline (%) -18.5% -19.8% -22.9% -22.1% Latest (3/19) 25,914 2,833 7,714 7,326 (12/24→3/19) 19.3% 20.5% 24.6% 24.2% % to September high 2.9% 3.5% 4.1% 3.3% 3/19 2833 ‘18/11/8 3.24% ‘19/3/19 2.601% ‘16/7/8 1.355% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5%
  • 2. 1 2 The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 for Q1 2019 is -3.4%. For companies that generate > 50% of sales inside the U.S.=+1.0%. For companies that generate l<50% of sales inside the U.S=-11.2%. During the first 2 months of 1Q, analysts lowered earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the Q→dropped by 6.5% *past 5 years (20 Qs), →2.4%. *past 10 years, (40 Qs)→2.8%. *past 15 years, (60 Qs)→2.9%. The estimated revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q1 2019 is 4.9%. For companies that generate >50% of sales inside the U.S., =6.5%. For companies that generate <50% of sales inside the U.S., =+0.7%. ’15 1Q -8% ’16 1Q >-8% ’19 1Q -6.5%