Very early signs point to a possible economic recovery: - The Harpex Shipping Index has bottomed out in late January. - The Bloomberg Base Metal Spot Price Index has gained 6.8% this year. - The Baltic Dry Index has started ticking higher. Analysts have lowered their earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter of 2019 by 6.5%, more than the average 2.4% reduction over the past 5 years. Earnings are expected to decline 3.4% overall but rise 1% for companies generating over 50% of sales inside the US and fall 11.2% for companies generating under 50% of sales inside the US. Revenue growth is estimated at