This document summarizes forecasts for the telecom sector in Bangladesh. It predicts that as consumers become more educated about deceptive marketing practices: 1) Telecom companies will have to be more transparent about additional terms and conditions rather than hiding them under "Conditions Apply". 2) When phone numbers become consumer property rather than the companies', switching rates will increase dramatically through word-of-mouth. 3) Companies will have to get consumer permission before sending unsolicited marketing SMS to avoid irritation. 4) Phone calls to call centers will become fully free to avoid hidden charges consumers pay for "courtesy". 5) Companies will advertise short wait times on call centers to remain competitive.

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Basic Forecasts for BD Telecom Sector
Seth Godin’s (2005) one of the bestseller is All Marketers are Liars. He came up with a
new hypothesis of storytelling by marketers. According to him, “Successful marketers
don’t tell the truth. They don’t talk about features or even benefits. Instead, they tell a
story. A story we want to believe. And, if they do it right, we believe them. We believe
that wine tastes better in a $20 glass than a $1 glass. We believe that an $80,000
Porsche Cayenne is cooler than a $36,000 VW Touareg, which is virtually the same car.
We believe that $225 Pumas will make our feet feel better than $20 no‐names... and
believing it makes it true.”
While Seth Godin begins with the disarming premise that marketing people are liars, he softens that premise
by stating that marketers are story tellers. Good marketers are story tellers, and like all great tales, myths, and
fiction, the facts are not essential. However, in my country like many other sectors, at Telecom sector too; we
find that Seth Godin’s theory is applied; knowingly or unknowingly; but they translate the subject as it is and
emphasizes on the Liar part, instead of storytelling. They believe telling a LIE to consumer is their sole purpose
or the only way to sell the product or service!
Conditions Apply: My Dear Telecom Operators, you already got me to sign on pieces of papers six
times on both sides of a three pages form to accept innumerable Terms and Conditions, printed in such a small
font which is almost impossible to read. Moreover, during the purchase of a SIM, the seller on the booth gives
an impression “please sign as quick as possible” and “They never utter a single word about the Terms
and Conditions”. There are already so many terms and conditions like, the buyer agrees to everything; even
to something like; I agree to accept future terms and conditions that may come up”; then again, why do
you show up like “Conditions Apply” at different communication materials?
Well, if there are additional conditions, which will compel bound us (the consumers), why don’t you use bold
and bigger fonts for “Conditions Apply” – and why do you add this when this is a redundant clause to the so
called list of Terms and Conditions paper where we already signed to agree? Is it because, the additional
condition is not actually condition; it’s only an attribute of the given offer/feature/value added service – which
seems to whisper to readers – “Look, this is too good a thing to refuse but the limitations are …….”
These limitations, marketers of the Telecom Operators, now hide inside an envelope of “Conditions Apply”.
This is nothing but a lie and exaggeration and re‐iteration of the so called Terms and Conditions.
I do hereby Forecast that, one day, the ads will appear with bold caption reading like “No
Conditions” or “Condition Free”, because, the more consumers get educated, the more
they find the LIE at the envelope of “Conditions Apply”; if the Telecom Marketers still
continue to lie the consumers, there is no doubt that they would lay them down.
Ownership of Number: In the first world, the SIM number has been declared as a
consumer’s property, not of the service provider’s. This is called “Mobility of Numbers”. Days are not
far when it happens in BD too, the LIARS will then find users switching providers as an immediate
effect of the lying (inside envelop).
I do hereby make Forecast that, by the time, the SIM number becomes consumers’
property, learning rate of the consumers would be so high that through WOM (Word
of Mouth) and Social networks, the news will spread like an epic and the switching rate
will be at exponential function.
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Unsolicited Spam SMS: Why do you (The Telecom Operators) try to sell Vandam’s Wallpaper
sending unsolicited SMS; while maybe; I am preparing for a prayer? Who gave you the authority to take my
time and attention – while in this overflowed world of information, time is a luxury and attention is
fragmented at every millisecond for ads from different sources? Did I request you to update me about your
latest offers? Why do you send location based discount message to postpaid users while it is applicable for
only prepaid users? As par common international practices, unsolicited SMS that you send are spam, until
consumers approve receiving them.
I do hereby make Forecast that, when we the consumers would be very much
irritated and rage out on the unsolicited SMS issue; you would realize that, it is
minimum courtesy to take consumers’ permission before sending them unsolicited
SMS. You would very soon be doing that by making phone calls and collecting
consumers’ preferences regarding unsolicited SMS. After all you cannot dump
whatever may bring you profit and snatch my time and attention.
Courtesy on Consumers’ Money: When a consumer calls at a Customer Care of a Cell Phone
Operator, s/he meets a parrot who has been programmed to start the conversation like ”Good Morning Sir,
……. Thank you for calling us…..” the consumer may feel WOW when they greet. Aha! Someone is over there in
the paranoid city of Dhaka, who has time to wish and talk to me (the consumer) as if they were known for
years. Shanti! Shanti! However, all peaces get vaporized when Consumer learns that, the Telecom Agent shows
courtesy at consumers’ money!! What hypocrisy!! If the Operators are truly courteous, why don’t they pay at
least for the courtesy part of the call; if not for the full call?
Well, during one single call of 1 minute, this courtesy part is almost 15 seconds on an average. As of May 2011,
BTRC site says total active subscriber of the country is 75.484 million. If a random figure of 15% of total
subscribers make a single call to their call centers, for one minute each, and if it costs BDT 1.0 (on industry
average), now see the figures : 75.484 million x 15% x BDT 1.0 x seconds = BDT 2.83 million.
And if suddenly on a specific day, 20% of the consumers make the call; consumers need to pay BDT
3.78 million and if it’s 25%, it’s almost 5.0 million, which means in simple Bangla, 50 lac taka. Who
pays this 50 lac taka in a single day? Why?
Can’t the operators pay for the courtesy they show to the loyal but unaware consumers? Operators
behave courteous to their consumers for the expense of the consumers. What an idea!
I do hereby Forecast that, operators will soon realize that, phone calls made to Call Centers
must be fully free. And I am expecting to see ads like: “Call Us for Free”. There will be rise of
TOLL‐FREE Numbers.
Waiting Time on Hold: How long does the Call Center keep on hold while we make a call to Call
Center? If the call center parrot agents at the call center are not sufficient in number or if the IVR cannot
handle all the call load at a given point of time, we need to wait on hold and hear that “Your call is very
important for us….”. If, average waiting time per call is 45 seconds. Then how much time do operators keep
people waiting? 75.484 million x 15% x 45 seconds ≈ 509,517,000.00 seconds ≈ 8,491,950.00 minutes ≈
141,532.50 hours ≈ 5,897.19 days ≈ 16.38 years ≈ 1.64 Decades !! These are kind of hidden charges, which
is marginally low but in macro volume very high, is a kind of falsification or the LIE.
I do hereby make Forecast that, consumers are not dumb and will not remain so for ever
after. Therefore, this kind of falsification will not sustain – nor will thy BRANDS. Therefore,
sooner or later, we shall see TVC (TV Commercials) and print ads which would read like this:
• Our Call Center is Free: No waiting Charge : No call charge
• Only 10 seconds Queue at our Helpline, or
• The Shortest waiting line at our Help Line / Customer Care
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3.
“Cell phone usage is injurious to your ears and brains”
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Usage Hazards: Using cell phone for a longer �me, brings us headache ads to exis�ng stress level and for
some people, it brings damage to ears. The preceding sentence is not yet scien�fically proved as 100%.
However, nico�ne is also not the only cause for carcinoma. Yet, nico�ne products (cigare�e), need to emboss
warning of health hazards on its pack as par country regula�ons.
I do hereby make Forecast that, Cell phone operators will have to mandatorily men�on
about its expected health hazards, which will start at the first world and would arrive at the 3rd
world when manipula�ng the authority and fooling the consumers would be over and they
would do it as a “must do to survive”. Sample warning cap�ons may read like this:
I Forecast that, within five (05) years this warning will be made mandatory in the first world and at best
within ten (10) years at the third (3rd
) world.
Validity Period: Once there was a �me consumers had to take a 300 Taka shot every 03 weeks to keep
their cell phones alive. It’s almost like taking an essen�al drug or life saving drugs at a fixed interval. A�er the
03 weeks, though consumer had a balance at his/ her account, could not use the phone un�l next recharge.
Now, that phase has been bold out by entry of compe�tors into the market. The same ghost of validity is s�ll
there; for different packages of ‘Internet Usage’. Can I ask my operator if I buy 1GB of data from you, why
can’t I use it at my convenient �me? On what laws of the world operators make one bound to use it within
validity period? It is something like, someone buys 05 KG of rice and s/he must consume them within a fixed
�me. What a condi�on!!
I do hereby make Forecast that, Cell phone operators will have to remove the ghost of
Validity Period very soon as the consumers get aware about the ma�er. We just need consumer
awareness on the issue. Even, operators may spend money to publish ad to let us know that,
they had been kind enough to remove the validity period for internet usage.
Itemized Bill for All: Since no system in the world is 100% error free, then why all the prepaid phone
users should assume that their bills are perfect? Postpaid users can obtain an itemized bill for a charge (which
is again a hidden charge and illogical). However, the prepaid users can’t ask for an Itemized Bill like postpaid
user. Recently one operator started this in Bangladesh for prepaid users.
I do hereby make Forecast that, all cell phone operators will have to allow the prepaid
users to obtain their Itemized Bill. Gradually, the charge for itemized bill will also be
evaporated. Currently the bills or itemized bills for postpaid users do not show when and how
much money has been recharged. Operators show itemized calls but not the payment details.
My forecast suggests that operators will have to show that too, as no system is 100% error free.
Online SMS Service:
I do hereby make Forecast that, very soon, all operators will have to offer Online SMS
Service with minimum 5 MB (start up) space where all inbox-dra�-sent items will be stored,
including phone books, emails and other medias. The said 05 MB storage space will increase
with the increase of MMS usage among consumers. Unfortunate for consumers is, the
operators will charge for the online service and the storage space. And they will ask separate
charges for Online Service and addi�onal storage space. The funniest thing in this online service
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would be the usual hos ng service or online storage space providers will get shy of the pricing charged by the
operators for online space. Gradually, due to comp on, the operators will start lowering prices and in 3 to 5
years of period, they will offer Gigabyte space for free. And that me, the ve edge would be
bandwidth of online space and security.
True and False in Marke ng
I do hereby make Forecast that, over me, consumer learning speeds up and more
consumer learning enhances quicker sharing of informa on. Final forecast for this
cle is, if the operators lie to the consumers (in any form), consumers will lay them
down. Moreover, the more Operators would try to hide a nega ve a ribute of its
product or service, the more it will spread; when efficient consumer learning and
informa on sharing would prevail there.
The Last Words:
In conclusion, I intend to remind that, in last May 2011, at an IT magazine I wrote about the future of Mobile
Phones and how the mobile phone is going to change our life style and going to be a part of our lives. At the
same cle, I also wrote the world is moving towards “Apponomics”; which is used to mean “Economics of
Applica on”. In near future main profit juice would be absorbed by the different applica on developers or
group of developers. No more the Telecom Industry will be ruled by the Operators. Operators will work simply
as a hose pipe to flow the data from one end to the other. This is the simple truth and current a tude of the
operators reflect that they are yet to realize the truth. The earlier the operators will realize and act on this, the
sooner their terms & condi on, validity lock or hidden charges etc. will evaporate.
However, the paradigm shi will start from the point when the mobility of numbers will be allowed.
In this regard, BTRC has a vital role to play. We expect that the BTRC and concerned GOB ministry
will take the issue with utmost importance for the social welfare.
Authors:
ANM Farukh, Researcher & Analyst
Contact: Farukhrana@Gmail.com
KM Aziz, Researcher
Contact: Monsurulaziz@Gmail.com
Notes:
We communicated famous and truth speaking several Daily Newspapers (English) in Dhaka for publishing this
as an opinion content. However, we concluded that, the newspapers live on adve ment & Cellular companies
are major stakeholders.
Further to note, we think we buy news every morning, but newspapers sell news as the cream sandwitched by
now that!
If readers do find any similarity of Telco offers with theforecasts, please share with us, it would be a pleasure.
December, 2011
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