May 2014 There was a line up to the problem. It was not sudden. There was time to fix the problem without shortcuts (1 year). Before the problem got out of hand (involvement of authorities).
Big mistake N#1 (unintentionally or intentionally): Volkswagen tells regulators that the differences amount to technical issues and "unexpected" test conditions. First try to cover up or the start of workarounds? Protective statement.
Recall in December 2014. Because the problem couldn't be fixed? The intention to “doctor” could also have been started here.
May 2015 next governmental involvement. Second chance to make things right i.e. coming forward or disclose voluntarily.
July 2015 point of no return. Third chance for a coming out or getting a handle on the problem.
September 2015 problem total out of control on all levels; politically, technically, environmentally, reputation wise.
2. THE PROBLEM LIFE CYCLE
Applied to the Volkswagen Scandal "defeat devices"
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence
3. The Lead up
• May 2014: Researchers at West Virginia University and the
International Council on Clean Transportation publish
"significantly higher in-use emissions" in a 2012 Jetta TDI
and 2013 Passat TDI, according to the EPA. Volkswagen
tells regulators that the differences amount to technical
issues and "unexpected" test conditions.
• December 2014: Volkswagen agrees to voluntarily recall its
diesel cars to address the emissions issues.
• May 2015: CARB tests the updated emissions on a 2012
Passat TDI, in a lab and on the road. The agency finds some
improvement, but not enough.
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence
Source: https://www.cars.com/articles/vw-diesel-crisis-timeline-of-events-1420681251993/
4. The Lead up
• July 2015: CARB shares its findings with VW. None of the technical issues
suggested by the automaker are found to explain CARB's results. Between July 8
and Sept. 3, CARB and the EPA say they will not certify VW's 2016 diesel lineup, a
necessary step to put those cars on sale. Only then does VW admit to software
irregularities. The automaker discloses that the software calibrations in three
separate diesel emissions systems had "a second calibration intended to run only
during certification testing," according to CARB.
• Sept. 3 2015: VW admits that the cars were "designed and manufactured with a
defeat device to bypass, defeat or render inoperative elements of the vehicle's
emission control system," CARB says.
• The software uses "dyno" and "road" calibrations that read when an emissions test
is being conducted; when the car is not being tested, the "road" calibration dials
back the effectiveness of two types of emissions-treatment systems: nitrogen
oxide traps and selective catalytic reduction (a urea solution). When dialed back,
the systems allow the engine to emit nitrogen oxide levels that are 10 to 40 times
the allowable amount by the EPA.
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence
Source: https://www.cars.com/articles/vw-diesel-crisis-timeline-of-events-1420681251993/
5. Principles in reverse
• Since the problem has been discovered by authorities and
raised as a formal claim the lifecycle works back wards.
• This means the next obstacles are
– Politically (CEO already had to step down)
– Opportunists/ Competitors (Mercedes announced/ assured they
have no defeat devices in their cars) others to come
– Investigative Journalists will now go out and hunt down
anything related to Volkswagen and diesel cars and of course
put everyone else under scrutiny
– Bloggers will pick the topic up too and correlate with old stories
and facts
• Big4’s will eventually step in and create assurance services
around this “unregulated” topic. Another money printing
machine…
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence
6. Single
Event
Trend Systemic Request Claim Formal
Claim
Latent
Regulation
Settlement
Publicinterest/#involvedparties
Time
Activists
Scentists
Intellectuals
Academia
Public Media
Politicians
Press
Government
Bodies
Groups
Personal
Involvement
Reputelligence™ Problem LifeCycle
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence
May
2014
Dec
2014
May
2015
Jul
2015
Sept
.18th
Researchers at West
Virginia University and the
International Council on
Clean Transportation
publish "significantly higher
in-use emissions"
CARB tests the updated
emissions. The agency
finds some improvement,
but not enough.
Volkswagen agrees to
voluntarily recall its
diesel cars to address
the emissions issues.
Between July 8 and Sept. 3, CARB and the
EPA say they will not certify VW's 2016
diesel lineup, a necessary step to put those
cars on sale. Only then does VW admit to
software irregularities.
VW admits that the
cars were "designed
and manufactured
with a defeat device to
bypass, defeat or
render inoperative
elements of the
vehicle's emission
control system," CARB
says.
Big mistake N#1
(unintentionally or
intentionally): Volkswagen
tells regulators that the
differences amount to
technical issues and
"unexpected" test conditions.
7. Conclusion
• May 2014 There was a line up to the problem. It was not sudden.
There was time to fix the problem without shortcuts (1 year).
Before the problem got out of hand (involvement of authorities).
• Big mistake N#1 (unintentionally or intentionally): Volkswagen tells
regulators that the differences amount to technical issues and
"unexpected" test conditions. first try to cover up or the start of
workarounds? Protective statement.
• Recall in December 2014. Because the problem couldn't be fixed?
The intention to “doctor” could also have been started here.
• May 2015 next governmental involvement. Second chance to make
things right i.e. coming forward or disclose voluntarily.
• July 2015 point of no return. Third chance for a coming out or
getting a handle on the problem.
• September 2015 problem total out of control on all levels;
politically, technically, environmentally, reputation wise.
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence
8. Single
Event
Trend Systemic Request Claim Formal
Claim
Latent
Regulation
Settlement
Level of
Formalism
Level of
Influence
Publicinterest/#involvedparties
Time
Activists,
Scentists
Intellectuals
Academia
Public Media,
Politicians
Press
Government
Bodies
Groups
CLM Zone
$ $$$ $$$ $$ $$$ $$$$ $$$
Personal
Involvement
Investigative
Journalist
Opportunists your
competitors
Politicians
Seconds
Minutes Hours
Days
Weeks
Months
Up to 3 Month
6-12 Months
Years
Decades
Big4
Law/ Policy
makers
Bloggers
Reputelligence™ Problem LifeCycle –
Political view
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence
9. Next Steps
• There is an opportunity now for Regulators i.e.
the Big4 to step in and demand regulation.
• Of course regulation would have to be from
independent auditing companies based on
international accepted standards.
• Car software might be put on regulation in the
future and has to be independently reviewed
(Big4 and similar).
Copyright 2015 Reputelligence