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Picking Horse Racing Winners When Your Broke
Table of Contents
Picking Horse Racing Winners When Your Broke ...................................................................................1
Horse Racing Partnerships - Getting To Know Them..............................................................................2
Types Of Race Horses..........................................................................................................................2
Types of Races.....................................................................................................................................3
Partnerships........................................................................................................................................3
Types Of Partnerships.........................................................................................................................4
How A Claiming Partnership Works....................................................................................................5
An Easy Horse Racing System to Evaluate Horses Before You Bet.........................................................7
Know About The History of Horse Racing.............................................................................................10
First horse races................................................................................................................................10
Purpose and types of horse racing ...................................................................................................10
Horse Racing Categories - Flat ..........................................................................................................10
Horse Racing Categories - All Weather.............................................................................................10
Horse Racing Categories - National Hunt..........................................................................................11
Horse Racing Classification ...............................................................................................................11
Easy Point System For Horse Racing Wagering.....................................................................................12
Determining Fitness In Horse Racing And How To Pick The One In Peak Condition ............................15
2
Horse Racing Partnerships - Getting To Know Them
In this article, I want to provide you with some insights into how to evaluate a horse racing
partnership. If you have not read my previous article. Let me be clear that I am talking about Horse
Racing that most people are familiar with. Maybe some day I will take a close look at Rodeo, Polo,
and Barrel Racing but not today. The first order of business is to become familiar with the language
of Horse Racing. Without this knowledge, it will be difficult to determine if this is worth the time,
regardless of its potential.
Types Of Race Horses
Let us consider three classes of horses; Thoroughbreds, Standard-breds and Quarters. Each type of
horse, races in very different ways. Quarter Horse races are straight sprints, usually less than 600
yards. They come flying out of the gate and bolt to the finish line. Very little strategy here, just a flat
out sprint. If the horse can clear the gate clean and straight tends to do well. These races can be
free-for-alls because as they break from the gate, speed is everything, so do not be shocked with the
occasional bumber car action.
Thoroughbred Horses also race flat out, the gate opens and the horse runs around the track for a
specific distance; ranging from the 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 3/4 miles (and sometimes longer in European,
Australian and Japanese races). There is some strategy here because some horses prefer to be in
front, while others prefer coming from the back of the pack, running down the leaders.
Standard-bred Horses race in two specific ways; Trotting and Pacing. They are different ways the
standard-bred horse gallops. The racing distances are least 1 mile. A gated truck drives in front of the
horses as they slowly start either at a trot or at a pace. The gated truck has a gate on each side of the
vehicle extending perpendicular that acts like a moving gate. The horses accelerate toward the gate
until the gate swing away from the horses. The truck accelerates out of the horses path and the race
is on.
Unlike Quarters and Thoroughbreds who are ridden by jockeys sitting in light saddles on the back of
the horse, Standard-breds are driven using a cart called a silkie. Standard-bred Racing is often called
Harness Racing.
A furlong is 1/8th of a mile. Races below 1 mile are considered sprints. Thoroughbred races are run
on Turf, Dirt or Synthetic surfaces. Standard-bred and Quarter Horse races are run on dirt. Each time
a horse is entered in a race, the results are reported to organizations like Equibase and stored. Each
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successive race the horse is entered in, will offer the horse's past performances as part of the
program.
Types of Races
It is important to understand that each race has qualifying characteristics. Each horse needs to meet
the requirements established for the race. All races are organized into two broad categories: Graded
Stakes Races and Non-Graded Stakes Races. Keeping things simple, there is a Graded Stakes
Committee that defines the Graded Stakes Races for the entire year. Non-Graded Stakes Races are
defined weekly and/or monthly, on a track by track basis. The prize (which is referred to as the
purse) for Graded Stakes Races are considerably higher than for Non-Graded Stake Races.
Probably the most well known horse race is the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is the first leg of the
Triple Crown. Names like Secretariat, Affirmed and , immediately come to mind. It has been over 25
years since Thoroughbred Horse Racing has celebrated a Triple Crown winner. The Kentucky Derby
goes a distance of 1 1/8th miles. Thoroughbred Horses looking to enter this race must be 3 years old
and are one of the top 20 earnings horses. The number is 20 because Churchill Downs (the track the
Derby is run at) attempts to field 20 horses each year. The Kentucky Derby is a Grade 1 (G1) Stakes
Race.
Standard-bred Horses are divided into two groups: Trotters and Pacers. So, a basic requirement is
that the standard-bred horse runs the race using the appropriate method or gate (at a Pace or a
Trot). For a Trot, the horse runs such that the diagonal legs hit the ground at the same time (right
front leg, back left leg). For a Pace, the horse runs such that each side (right legs, then left legs) hit
the ground at the same time. If the standard-bred horse 'breaks' the running gate while running the
race, the horse must go to the back of the pack and re-establish the gate; this is referred to a 'break'.
Races like the Hamiltonian are well-known races for Standard-breds.
Allowance Races, Optional Claiming Races, Maiden Claiming Races are all types of races your horse
may qualify to race in (Harness races may be named Opens or Qualifiers). For instance, every horse
will run its first race against other horses that have never won a race before. This type of race is
known as a 'Maiden Special Weight' (this type of race is further restricted by the age of the horse).
This means qualifying horses have never won a race (and must be of a certain age). So when a horse
finally reaches a level where the trainer and the owners believe (s)he is ready to race; they enter the
horse into this type of race.
Partnerships
All Horse Racing Partnerships operate basically the same way. They manage a race horse the same
way a sports management team manages any athlete. There are managers, trainers,administrators,
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medical personnel and training support people (e.g. grooms, hot-walkers). The easiest way to
understand this is to realize that each horse is a business and the success of the business will be
based on the strength of the people operating the partnership along with the potential of the horse.
So when you plan on joining a partnership, look carefully at the people operating it and their
partnership track record. Talk to them, visit their stables, look at all the horses they are managing
and the horse's racing performances.
It is not practical to think that every race horse will be successful, so manage your expectations. Look
carefully at the management team's track record with the horses they claim or purchase because it
is a strong indication of future performances. Remember, they select the horse that is purchased or
claimed and it is their expertise and business savvy that will ultimately determine the outcome of
the partnership. The amount of money you are investing is not relevant here. Regardless of the
amount, you want to make sure the partnership is looking to acquire a horse that has a good chance
of succeeding. So understanding their method for selecting a claiming horse is important.
No athlete dreams of playing on a last place team, no horse wants to run a race to come in second.
That being said, it is not wise to invest your money in an organization that is not looking to acquire a
horse that will win. Just remember, Sham was a great horse, unfortunately, he ran against
Secretariat. Suffice to say, Sham made a significant amount of money for his owners. Managing
expectations is critical and that is what the Partnership Management must be very good at.
Types Of Partnerships
Basically there are two ways to acquire a race horse; claim the horse at a claiming race (privately
purchasing the horse from the owners is essentially the same thing) or purchase a race horse that
was bred by a breeding organization. It is important to understand the difference because the costs
are very different. When you purchase a race horse by claiming the horse at a claiming race, the
horse is already in the business, so to speak. The risks are well defined because the horse has
already made it to the track and has past performances.
The other way to acquire a race horse is to purchase it through an auction. Auctions occur several
times throughout the year and the purchase price is typically higher than a claiming horse (but not
always, it depends on the horse). The greatest risk is with Auction acquisitions. The horse is
completely untested and there are no guarantees here. In other words, once you purchased the
yearling you will wait at least 1 year before the horse will race, so be prepared to pay for the horse
at least 1 year before (s)he will be potentially earning purses.
5
How A Claiming Partnership Works
Claiming partnerships are the most common partnerships available and the easiest to participate in.
A horse can be claimed at any one of the many claiming races that are run daily at all racetracks. So
let me be very specific. The partnership you join is organized based on the expectation that it will
claim a race horse. The partnership earns money based on where the horse finished in a race, (s)he
is entered in. The purse money the horse earns goes to covering the costs of the partnership. The
partnership will enter the horse in future races (and these races could include other claiming races)
with the expectation that the horse may be claimed by another partnership (if the race is a claiming
race). Remember, the horse is not really a pet and if you plan on getting emotionally attached to the
horse, then this might not be the best place to invest your money.
The partnership will claim a horse, turn it over to the trainer(s), schedule future races for the horse
and expect the horse to win, place or show (the other finishing positions get paid but at substantially
lower amounts). Remember the horse needs to be fed, stabled, trained, groomed, exercised and
medically checked regularly, and the partnership will pay for these monthly costs. So, make certain
you understand all these costs because once you are in the partnership, it is difficult to leave it and
you are financially on the hook for the horse.
So your partnership determines that there is a horse they are interested in claiming and the horse is
running in a claiming race for a claim price of $20,000. The partnership needs to have the capital to
acquire the horse. So the total amount of seed capital includes the cost of the claim (e.g. $20,000),
plus the State Sales Taxes (depending on the State), plus any track related fees (depends on the
State and Track), plus at least 4 months of maintenance for the horse (this may vary to as high as 7
months), plus a monthly administration fee (this varies, sometimes management takes a percentage
of the horse as partial or complete payment; you need to check this before you join the partnership).
The cost to maintain a race horse varies but $5000 per month in New York is not uncommon and this
will vary depending on the trainer and the State the partnership operates in. So, the partnership will
need at least $70,000 to claim a $20,000 Race Horse (and this is a very rough estimate).
So the partnership has entered a claim for a horse. The claim must be entered prior to the race, so it
is important that the partnership has carefully evaluated the horse, its past performances, its current
medical condition, and have a racing plan for the horse, to name a few areas of concern. The most
important aspect to remember about claiming partnerships, is that you want to see the horse
entered into races that it can win because the more often the horse finishes in the first three
positions, the more likely the horse will be covering his own expenses.
Be practical, you want a partnership that does not have a history of doing frequent cash calls (when
the partnership costs exceed the earnings of the horse). It will happen, so just remember, you are
responsible for covering the expenses based on the percentage you own of the horse. If you bought
a 5% stake in the horse and monthly expenses are $5000 per month you are expected to come up
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with $250 per month to cover the expenses. Make sure you speak with the managing partners about
this because you do not want to be hit with any big surprises. Like any athlete, the horse can get
injured, so factor in the potential of an unexpected medical cost. Again, the partnership should
factor this into the monthly costs.
I cannot emphasize more loudly, speak with the managing partnership and look carefully at the
horse's past performances, especially long lay-offs because it may be an indication of the horse's
racing health. Finely tuned athletes perform regularly and with consistent results. Of course, there is
no reliable way to predict the future but you can avoid obviously questionable claims.
7
An Easy Horse Racing System to Evaluate Horses Before You Bet
The process of horse racing handicapping is simply the evaluation of each runner to determine its
chances of winning. Once you have an idea, or what we call a "guess-timate" of how likely each
runner is to find the winner's circle, then you can start the important part of making money betting
on horses. Finding value on the odds board is the goal of serious horse racing handicapping. An easy
horse racing system is every horse player's dream.
A simple and easy to use formula will tell you if a runner is a good wager, may be profitable in the
long run. Just ask yourself, "If this same race was run ten times or twenty times, how many of those
races would each runner win?"
If your answer for horse A is two out of ten times, then he would win about a fifth of the races, so his
fair value odds would be 5-1. Once you know that, a look at the odds board will tell you whether he
is a good bet at over 5-1 or is overvalued by the crowd and is going off at less than 5-1. I realize that I
am simplifying something that is actually very difficult to do, but for the purposes of this short horse
racing article, we can't go into depth on the subject of handicapping, an intellectual pursuit that
could fill many volumes.
One method that you can use to quickly handicap a race is to break it down to three factors, speed,
class, and jockey. Creating a hierarchy, a list of horses starting with the best and going to the worst
in each category and then assigning a number for each position is one way to find horses that have
an edge. It won't tell you how many times the horse with the best score would win if they raced
against each other ten times, but it will tell you which one might win most often.
For instance, taking the two best speed figures in their last three races and adding the figure for
those two races together, will give you a number for each horse, assuming that each one has had a
race. If you don't play maiden races with first time starters, you won't have the problem of a horse
with no past races. Let's say there are five horses in the race and we'll label them from A to E. Their
speed figure totals look like this...
A=150, B=145, C=155, D=130, E=148.
Putting them in order from best to worse would give us,
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C, A, E, B, D.
Now if we give them a number for their order, it would look like this (since there are five horses, the
top number is 5 and the worst of course, is 1).
5 4 3 2 1
C A E B D, so horse C gets 5 points for speed and A gets 4, etc.
To figure class, find the horse who has earned the most money in its last five starts or simply look at
the purse in the horse's last race. Any method will work as long as you can identify the horse that
raced against the best horses in its last race. In the case of a tie, give each horse the same number in
the hierarchy. For instance, if two horses both raced for $50,000 in their last race and that is the top
amount, then give each one a 5.
Once again, create a hierarchy with the best receiving a 5 and the worst a 1.
Finally, simply look at the jockey's winning percentage and use that to create a hierarchy.
Your final totals might look something like this...
Speed =
5 4 3 2 1
C A E B D
Class =
9
5 4 4 2 1
A B E D C
Jockey=
5 4 3 2 1
C D B A E
Now add each horse's total score to find the top horse.
Horse A gets 4 points for speed, 5 points for class, and 2 points for jockey, so it gets a total of 11.
Horse B gets 2 points for speed, 4 points for class, and 3 points for jockey, so it gets a total of 9.
The rest get C=11, D=7, E=8.
Since A and C are tied for 11, they are the top horses. You could bet the one with the best odds, or
simply pass the race. This is a very simple system to handicap a horse race and won't make you rich.
Wagering on horse races is very risky and this article and system are only meant for entertainment,
but it is one easy way to handicap a horse race.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-
handicapping.co and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional
handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's
handicapping store.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/6350374
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Know About The History of Horse Racing
There has been horse racing of sorts for many many years. Horse racing began in Assyria in c.1500
B.C. and Chariot Racing was a popular event in Roman Times. It was in fact the Romans who are
thought to have ran the first horse race in the UK, however the first actual recorded event of a
meeting was in 1174, this took place at a horse fair in the north-west part of London called
Smithfield.
Royal Connections
The Royal Family are behind many of the historic developments that changed and shaped racing
over the years, with Henry II importing horses specifically for breeding and Charles II being the first
to introduce a set of rules in 1664 (for the Newmarket Town Plate). It was in 1752 the Jockey Club
formed and penned The Rules of Racing.
First horse races
The Derby is the oldest flat race having begun in 1780 at the Earl of Derby's estate in Epsom, it was
run on a sweepstakes basis and is still of course being run every year now, as is the Grand National
which was first run in 1856, however the first recorded national hunt (as we know it now) race was
in Cork, Ireland in 1752, it was a 4 miles 5 furlongs contest between two church steeples and that is
the reason the term 'steeplechase' was coined.
Purpose and types of horse racing
The purpose of a H.race is to determine the fastest of two or more horses over a specific distance
with the first horse to cross the winning line being the winner.
Horse Racing Categories - Flat
In the UK and Ireland there are three variations of race categories. The first is Flat Racing, where
horses run over a distance between 5 furlongs and 2 miles 6 furlongs on turf. The flat season starts
in March and runs through to November with varying quality of races with Group 1 contests being
the highest. The youngest horses competing on the flat are 2 years old.
Horse Racing Categories - All Weather
All Weather Racing is the second race category and is similar to flat racing other than contests take
place on an artificial surface, which can be used all year round (hence the name All Weather). Many
of the All Weather H.racing tracks also have floodlit tracks meaning they can offer night racing.
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Horse Racing Categories - National Hunt
The third category is National Hunt where horses compete on turf over longer distances ranging
from 1 mile 6 furlongs (very minimal number of junior bumper races) and 4 miles 4 furlongs. Within
National Hunt there are further classification types, these are Bumpers (also known as National Hunt
Flat races) where there are no obstacles and are aimed at giving horses the experience of competing
on a race track, Chases where the competitors must clear fences and Hurdles where they must jump
hurdles. This means for example that you can have a handicap chase or a maiden hurdle etc. The
difference between a fence and a hurdle is quite significant with a fence being sturdier and higher. A
hurdle race will only contain hurdles whereas a chase can contain a variety of obstacles including
water jumps and ditches as well as fences.
Horse Racing Classification
Within each category of racing there are different types of contests dependent on a horse's
experience and ability. Generally races are categorised by an age group (for example 4 year olds+)
and/or an official rating bracket (a score given to each horse by the handicapper based on its
performance to date). Maiden races are for horses who have not yet won a race. Handicaps are
when a horse is weighted dependent on its past ability - in an ideal world, a handicap should result
in all horses crossing the finish line at the same time. Nursery races are handicap races on the flat/all
weather for two year old horses. Non handicaps are when all horses carry the same weight
(although this figure can be adjusted based on penalties applied as set out in the race terms - for
example the rules may state that all horses will carry 9 stone but that an additional weight of 3
pounds will be applied to horses who have won in the last 6 weeks).
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/4922277
12
Easy Point System For Horse Racing Wagering
This is an easy to follow method that I am going to explain because I want to show you how critical it
is to use a systematic method, a system, to handicap and wager on horse races. Now admittedly, this
is a pretty simple method and a large number of punters spend hours reading a racing form or
playing with computer programs to figure out the contenders in a race. Some people call
handicapping an intellectual sport and do it for fun or the challenge while others do it for profit.
Because it costs money to play the races, if you aren't making money, it can be an expensive hobby.
With that thought in mind, let's look at how we can at least support the hobby with winnings from
the races.
The goal of making a profit should always be somewhere in mind, if you want to support your
handicapping. Keep it in the back of your mind while you read the race and determine the
contenders. You may think that all the people who are cashing tickets after a race are winners, but
such is not the case. If you are a pro at gambling and handicapping, you know what I mean. Cashing
a winning ticket does not make you a winner in the long run.
How can that be? Well the people who cash tickets after a race may have spent too much for that
ticket and didn't actually make a profit on the race. Others may have profited from that race but
didn't manage their money well and wound up losing for the day, week, or month. Here is what I am
getting at, the professional gamblers and horse players are not only good at picking winners, but
they are also good at picking bets that are profitable over the long run. In order to be successful, you
must be good at picking horses and bets.
Let's do a little exercise that will help you to start thinking along the lines of odds in comparison to a
horse's real chances of winning, the basis for picking good bets.
We'll start with 100% of the money invested in a horse race by all the bettors and then subtract 20%
which is approximately the track's take out, or vig. We are left with 80% of the pool, the amount that
will be distributed to the winners.
Then we'll consider the number of horses in the field. Divide the 80% by the number of horses in the
field. If there are 8 horses in the field, then each horse accounts for about 10% of the pool because
80 divided by 8 equals 10. Let's go one step farther and call that 10% a unit.
Next we will consider the factors of a horse race.
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1. Consistency of the runners is determined by dividing the number of races a horse ran by the
number of times it won. So a runner that won 2 out of 10 races has a consistency rating of 2 out of
10 or 1/5 or 20%. The horse with the highest consistency rating gets the 10% for that factor. The
horse who wins each factor gets 10% for that factor.
2. Class is arrived at by dividing the amount of money the horse has made in its lifetime by the
number of races it has run. So if a horse made $10,000 and ran 10 times it would have averaged
$1,000 per race. If the horse has raced at least five times in the current year you should divide this
years winnings by the number of races it ran this year. If it raced less than five times, use lifetime
races and earnings.
3. Jockey's are easy to compute. Just find the jockey's winning percentage.
4. Trainers are also easy to figure, once again, use the winning percentage.
5. Speed in last race. Find the horse with the fastest speed rating in its last race.
6. Overall Speed is computed by finding the fastest speed rating in the last 60 days. If they don't list
speed ratings, use raw times at the distance, for instance, 6 furlongs at 1:10 or whatever.
7. Won Last Race (if two or more horses won their last races, give the 10% to the one who won in
the classiest race.)
8. Just won at the same distance on the same track (if two horses have done it, give the 10% to the
one who did it at the highest level, if it is still a tie, give each one 5%)
Now let's put it all together and see if we can't make heads or tails of the runners to figure out what
fair odds are for each racer...
1. Each factor listed above is worth 10%. The horse with the highest rating for each factor gets 10%.
It is actually possible for a horse to be the leader in all categories and to get the whole 80%, but that
doesn't usually happen.
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2. The next step is to determine what amount of money should be allotted to comprise realistic
payoffs, good bets.
The odds you see on the toteboard are figured by turning the percentage of the pool bet on the
horse into a fraction. An example would be a runner with half of the pool bet on it, 50%, would be at
1/2 odds because dividing 50 into 100 gives us the fraction, 1/2. This means that the horse should
win half the time if it is really as good as the public thinks it is. Reading the table below, we see that
a four dollar payoff would be a fair payoff for the horse for every $2 bet on it.
Fair Odds Percentage
2/5 80%
3/5 70%
4/5 60%
1/1 50%
8/5 40%
2/1 30%
4/1 20%
9/1 10%
So if you look at the factors in the race and estimate that a horse who had the best time in its last
race and also has the best jockey (gets 10% for each factor so it is a 20% horse) is going off at more
than 4/1 odds, then it is a profitable bet because it will win about 1 out of 5 times but pays more
than $10, the cost of the base bets.
This system is not meant to be used for serious wagering. It is simply an exercise to get you thinking
in terms of probability and payoff, the true key to making a profit at horse racing handicapping.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/1813280
15
Determining Fitness In Horse Racing And How To Pick The One In
Peak Condition
When determining the winner of a horse race it boils down to two basic questions. Can the horse
physically win the race and by physically I mean is he in fit condition to for today's race? The second
question which is equally important: is the horse superior in his ability (competitive enough) to win
at today's level of horse racing?
When handicapping the condition of a horse its important to remember that no matter how much
superior ability the horse has if he is in poor shape or condition he will not win the race. Looking at
previous workouts and races in the Daily Racing Form you can determine quickly the condition of the
horse.
Start by looking at how recent was the last race he ran in? A horse that has been away for 60 to 90
days needless to say is not in the best physical shape to contend. Its important to look at large gaps
between races the horse might have ran just a couple weeks ago but before that it was 2 months. A
good rule of thumb is if it has had 3 races after a lengthy layoff its in good shape to run today. As a
rule competition makes a horse more fit than training but if no races are present workouts are listed
at the bottom help you see the fitness of a horse.
In handicapping horse racing a horse that has not raced in a month and no workouts is in
questionable condition. So is a horse that had a year layoff with many workouts. A successful
handicapper in horse racing has to make a decision of the fitness on a horse if there are several races
that its been in consistently then there is no problem if not it becomes a guessing game. sometimes
there are legitimate reasons for a month layoff.
Here are some hard fast rules for figuring out if the horse is in good form.
In Betting on claiming races follow closely these considerations
1.) In recent races at 7 furlongs or less, accept horses that have run within the last month, preferably
at the same track they are today.
2.) In routes, horses should show a race within the last month plus 2 workouts. If they have raced
within 2 weeks and show one workout, this is acceptable. If within one week no workouts are
needed.
16
3.) At 7 furlongs or less, horses can be on form even if they have not raced in 45 days, provided they
have been working out at regular intervals of four or day longer and have previously won after
absences of that length or longer.
In Betting on non claiming races (allowance, handicap, and stakes horses)you can be more relaxed
with these bigger races
1.) Horses that have been out 60 to 90 days are rarely in good form unless they have worked out
often with respectable clockings. Some tips on this below
A workout is more satisfactory if the horse breezes (runs without urging) at a rate of approximate 12
seconds for each 1/8 mile. 1.00b for five is a definite sign of life, so is 1.13b for six
A longer workout is always more significant than a shorter one
If it has a bullet by the workout it means the horse had a very fast workout and should be noted~ be
on the lookout for these trends on workouts if its been awhile since the horse has raced.
2.) In allowance races the horse that has raced well in the last week or two is better than one that
has not been our for four weeks or more.
Along with what to look for to see if a horse is poised to run a great race there are also some danger
signs for ones not being fit. Here they are:
1.) Throw out any horse that bled, ran sore or finished lame in last race
2.) Throw out any horse that slowed into the stretch considerably or bore out notably in last race.
3.) Throw out any horse that is stepping up in class after a race it won while losing ground in the
driving stretch.
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4.) Except for the highly consistent horses that give their best every race~ throw out any 4 year old
or older, that engaged in dueling finishes in its last 2 outings. (notable exceptions are lightly raced 3
year olds of really high quality or handicap and stake races from top barns)
5.) Throw out any horse aged 5 or older whose best effort at today's distance occurred in its last
race, unless the horse is a male and it demonstrated reserved speed.
6.) Throw out any claiming horse whose last race was a big win more than 2 weeks ago. Big wins
mean horses that won easily with some reserved speed. For example gaining lengths after already
being in first.
Some horses in peak condition still cannot beat the competitors so there are variety of factors that
will tell us what the story is to come. Click on the class factor to help with judging the quality of the
horse.
When you begin to handicap a race the factor of condition is an excellent starting point and can help
you narrow down the field quickly.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/1121246

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Picking horse racing winners when your broke

  • 1. 1 Picking Horse Racing Winners When Your Broke Table of Contents Picking Horse Racing Winners When Your Broke ...................................................................................1 Horse Racing Partnerships - Getting To Know Them..............................................................................2 Types Of Race Horses..........................................................................................................................2 Types of Races.....................................................................................................................................3 Partnerships........................................................................................................................................3 Types Of Partnerships.........................................................................................................................4 How A Claiming Partnership Works....................................................................................................5 An Easy Horse Racing System to Evaluate Horses Before You Bet.........................................................7 Know About The History of Horse Racing.............................................................................................10 First horse races................................................................................................................................10 Purpose and types of horse racing ...................................................................................................10 Horse Racing Categories - Flat ..........................................................................................................10 Horse Racing Categories - All Weather.............................................................................................10 Horse Racing Categories - National Hunt..........................................................................................11 Horse Racing Classification ...............................................................................................................11 Easy Point System For Horse Racing Wagering.....................................................................................12 Determining Fitness In Horse Racing And How To Pick The One In Peak Condition ............................15
  • 2. 2 Horse Racing Partnerships - Getting To Know Them In this article, I want to provide you with some insights into how to evaluate a horse racing partnership. If you have not read my previous article. Let me be clear that I am talking about Horse Racing that most people are familiar with. Maybe some day I will take a close look at Rodeo, Polo, and Barrel Racing but not today. The first order of business is to become familiar with the language of Horse Racing. Without this knowledge, it will be difficult to determine if this is worth the time, regardless of its potential. Types Of Race Horses Let us consider three classes of horses; Thoroughbreds, Standard-breds and Quarters. Each type of horse, races in very different ways. Quarter Horse races are straight sprints, usually less than 600 yards. They come flying out of the gate and bolt to the finish line. Very little strategy here, just a flat out sprint. If the horse can clear the gate clean and straight tends to do well. These races can be free-for-alls because as they break from the gate, speed is everything, so do not be shocked with the occasional bumber car action. Thoroughbred Horses also race flat out, the gate opens and the horse runs around the track for a specific distance; ranging from the 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 3/4 miles (and sometimes longer in European, Australian and Japanese races). There is some strategy here because some horses prefer to be in front, while others prefer coming from the back of the pack, running down the leaders. Standard-bred Horses race in two specific ways; Trotting and Pacing. They are different ways the standard-bred horse gallops. The racing distances are least 1 mile. A gated truck drives in front of the horses as they slowly start either at a trot or at a pace. The gated truck has a gate on each side of the vehicle extending perpendicular that acts like a moving gate. The horses accelerate toward the gate until the gate swing away from the horses. The truck accelerates out of the horses path and the race is on. Unlike Quarters and Thoroughbreds who are ridden by jockeys sitting in light saddles on the back of the horse, Standard-breds are driven using a cart called a silkie. Standard-bred Racing is often called Harness Racing. A furlong is 1/8th of a mile. Races below 1 mile are considered sprints. Thoroughbred races are run on Turf, Dirt or Synthetic surfaces. Standard-bred and Quarter Horse races are run on dirt. Each time a horse is entered in a race, the results are reported to organizations like Equibase and stored. Each
  • 3. 3 successive race the horse is entered in, will offer the horse's past performances as part of the program. Types of Races It is important to understand that each race has qualifying characteristics. Each horse needs to meet the requirements established for the race. All races are organized into two broad categories: Graded Stakes Races and Non-Graded Stakes Races. Keeping things simple, there is a Graded Stakes Committee that defines the Graded Stakes Races for the entire year. Non-Graded Stakes Races are defined weekly and/or monthly, on a track by track basis. The prize (which is referred to as the purse) for Graded Stakes Races are considerably higher than for Non-Graded Stake Races. Probably the most well known horse race is the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown. Names like Secretariat, Affirmed and , immediately come to mind. It has been over 25 years since Thoroughbred Horse Racing has celebrated a Triple Crown winner. The Kentucky Derby goes a distance of 1 1/8th miles. Thoroughbred Horses looking to enter this race must be 3 years old and are one of the top 20 earnings horses. The number is 20 because Churchill Downs (the track the Derby is run at) attempts to field 20 horses each year. The Kentucky Derby is a Grade 1 (G1) Stakes Race. Standard-bred Horses are divided into two groups: Trotters and Pacers. So, a basic requirement is that the standard-bred horse runs the race using the appropriate method or gate (at a Pace or a Trot). For a Trot, the horse runs such that the diagonal legs hit the ground at the same time (right front leg, back left leg). For a Pace, the horse runs such that each side (right legs, then left legs) hit the ground at the same time. If the standard-bred horse 'breaks' the running gate while running the race, the horse must go to the back of the pack and re-establish the gate; this is referred to a 'break'. Races like the Hamiltonian are well-known races for Standard-breds. Allowance Races, Optional Claiming Races, Maiden Claiming Races are all types of races your horse may qualify to race in (Harness races may be named Opens or Qualifiers). For instance, every horse will run its first race against other horses that have never won a race before. This type of race is known as a 'Maiden Special Weight' (this type of race is further restricted by the age of the horse). This means qualifying horses have never won a race (and must be of a certain age). So when a horse finally reaches a level where the trainer and the owners believe (s)he is ready to race; they enter the horse into this type of race. Partnerships All Horse Racing Partnerships operate basically the same way. They manage a race horse the same way a sports management team manages any athlete. There are managers, trainers,administrators,
  • 4. 4 medical personnel and training support people (e.g. grooms, hot-walkers). The easiest way to understand this is to realize that each horse is a business and the success of the business will be based on the strength of the people operating the partnership along with the potential of the horse. So when you plan on joining a partnership, look carefully at the people operating it and their partnership track record. Talk to them, visit their stables, look at all the horses they are managing and the horse's racing performances. It is not practical to think that every race horse will be successful, so manage your expectations. Look carefully at the management team's track record with the horses they claim or purchase because it is a strong indication of future performances. Remember, they select the horse that is purchased or claimed and it is their expertise and business savvy that will ultimately determine the outcome of the partnership. The amount of money you are investing is not relevant here. Regardless of the amount, you want to make sure the partnership is looking to acquire a horse that has a good chance of succeeding. So understanding their method for selecting a claiming horse is important. No athlete dreams of playing on a last place team, no horse wants to run a race to come in second. That being said, it is not wise to invest your money in an organization that is not looking to acquire a horse that will win. Just remember, Sham was a great horse, unfortunately, he ran against Secretariat. Suffice to say, Sham made a significant amount of money for his owners. Managing expectations is critical and that is what the Partnership Management must be very good at. Types Of Partnerships Basically there are two ways to acquire a race horse; claim the horse at a claiming race (privately purchasing the horse from the owners is essentially the same thing) or purchase a race horse that was bred by a breeding organization. It is important to understand the difference because the costs are very different. When you purchase a race horse by claiming the horse at a claiming race, the horse is already in the business, so to speak. The risks are well defined because the horse has already made it to the track and has past performances. The other way to acquire a race horse is to purchase it through an auction. Auctions occur several times throughout the year and the purchase price is typically higher than a claiming horse (but not always, it depends on the horse). The greatest risk is with Auction acquisitions. The horse is completely untested and there are no guarantees here. In other words, once you purchased the yearling you will wait at least 1 year before the horse will race, so be prepared to pay for the horse at least 1 year before (s)he will be potentially earning purses.
  • 5. 5 How A Claiming Partnership Works Claiming partnerships are the most common partnerships available and the easiest to participate in. A horse can be claimed at any one of the many claiming races that are run daily at all racetracks. So let me be very specific. The partnership you join is organized based on the expectation that it will claim a race horse. The partnership earns money based on where the horse finished in a race, (s)he is entered in. The purse money the horse earns goes to covering the costs of the partnership. The partnership will enter the horse in future races (and these races could include other claiming races) with the expectation that the horse may be claimed by another partnership (if the race is a claiming race). Remember, the horse is not really a pet and if you plan on getting emotionally attached to the horse, then this might not be the best place to invest your money. The partnership will claim a horse, turn it over to the trainer(s), schedule future races for the horse and expect the horse to win, place or show (the other finishing positions get paid but at substantially lower amounts). Remember the horse needs to be fed, stabled, trained, groomed, exercised and medically checked regularly, and the partnership will pay for these monthly costs. So, make certain you understand all these costs because once you are in the partnership, it is difficult to leave it and you are financially on the hook for the horse. So your partnership determines that there is a horse they are interested in claiming and the horse is running in a claiming race for a claim price of $20,000. The partnership needs to have the capital to acquire the horse. So the total amount of seed capital includes the cost of the claim (e.g. $20,000), plus the State Sales Taxes (depending on the State), plus any track related fees (depends on the State and Track), plus at least 4 months of maintenance for the horse (this may vary to as high as 7 months), plus a monthly administration fee (this varies, sometimes management takes a percentage of the horse as partial or complete payment; you need to check this before you join the partnership). The cost to maintain a race horse varies but $5000 per month in New York is not uncommon and this will vary depending on the trainer and the State the partnership operates in. So, the partnership will need at least $70,000 to claim a $20,000 Race Horse (and this is a very rough estimate). So the partnership has entered a claim for a horse. The claim must be entered prior to the race, so it is important that the partnership has carefully evaluated the horse, its past performances, its current medical condition, and have a racing plan for the horse, to name a few areas of concern. The most important aspect to remember about claiming partnerships, is that you want to see the horse entered into races that it can win because the more often the horse finishes in the first three positions, the more likely the horse will be covering his own expenses. Be practical, you want a partnership that does not have a history of doing frequent cash calls (when the partnership costs exceed the earnings of the horse). It will happen, so just remember, you are responsible for covering the expenses based on the percentage you own of the horse. If you bought a 5% stake in the horse and monthly expenses are $5000 per month you are expected to come up
  • 6. 6 with $250 per month to cover the expenses. Make sure you speak with the managing partners about this because you do not want to be hit with any big surprises. Like any athlete, the horse can get injured, so factor in the potential of an unexpected medical cost. Again, the partnership should factor this into the monthly costs. I cannot emphasize more loudly, speak with the managing partnership and look carefully at the horse's past performances, especially long lay-offs because it may be an indication of the horse's racing health. Finely tuned athletes perform regularly and with consistent results. Of course, there is no reliable way to predict the future but you can avoid obviously questionable claims.
  • 7. 7 An Easy Horse Racing System to Evaluate Horses Before You Bet The process of horse racing handicapping is simply the evaluation of each runner to determine its chances of winning. Once you have an idea, or what we call a "guess-timate" of how likely each runner is to find the winner's circle, then you can start the important part of making money betting on horses. Finding value on the odds board is the goal of serious horse racing handicapping. An easy horse racing system is every horse player's dream. A simple and easy to use formula will tell you if a runner is a good wager, may be profitable in the long run. Just ask yourself, "If this same race was run ten times or twenty times, how many of those races would each runner win?" If your answer for horse A is two out of ten times, then he would win about a fifth of the races, so his fair value odds would be 5-1. Once you know that, a look at the odds board will tell you whether he is a good bet at over 5-1 or is overvalued by the crowd and is going off at less than 5-1. I realize that I am simplifying something that is actually very difficult to do, but for the purposes of this short horse racing article, we can't go into depth on the subject of handicapping, an intellectual pursuit that could fill many volumes. One method that you can use to quickly handicap a race is to break it down to three factors, speed, class, and jockey. Creating a hierarchy, a list of horses starting with the best and going to the worst in each category and then assigning a number for each position is one way to find horses that have an edge. It won't tell you how many times the horse with the best score would win if they raced against each other ten times, but it will tell you which one might win most often. For instance, taking the two best speed figures in their last three races and adding the figure for those two races together, will give you a number for each horse, assuming that each one has had a race. If you don't play maiden races with first time starters, you won't have the problem of a horse with no past races. Let's say there are five horses in the race and we'll label them from A to E. Their speed figure totals look like this... A=150, B=145, C=155, D=130, E=148. Putting them in order from best to worse would give us,
  • 8. 8 C, A, E, B, D. Now if we give them a number for their order, it would look like this (since there are five horses, the top number is 5 and the worst of course, is 1). 5 4 3 2 1 C A E B D, so horse C gets 5 points for speed and A gets 4, etc. To figure class, find the horse who has earned the most money in its last five starts or simply look at the purse in the horse's last race. Any method will work as long as you can identify the horse that raced against the best horses in its last race. In the case of a tie, give each horse the same number in the hierarchy. For instance, if two horses both raced for $50,000 in their last race and that is the top amount, then give each one a 5. Once again, create a hierarchy with the best receiving a 5 and the worst a 1. Finally, simply look at the jockey's winning percentage and use that to create a hierarchy. Your final totals might look something like this... Speed = 5 4 3 2 1 C A E B D Class =
  • 9. 9 5 4 4 2 1 A B E D C Jockey= 5 4 3 2 1 C D B A E Now add each horse's total score to find the top horse. Horse A gets 4 points for speed, 5 points for class, and 2 points for jockey, so it gets a total of 11. Horse B gets 2 points for speed, 4 points for class, and 3 points for jockey, so it gets a total of 9. The rest get C=11, D=7, E=8. Since A and C are tied for 11, they are the top horses. You could bet the one with the best odds, or simply pass the race. This is a very simple system to handicap a horse race and won't make you rich. Wagering on horse races is very risky and this article and system are only meant for entertainment, but it is one easy way to handicap a horse race. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing- handicapping.co and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/6350374
  • 10. 10 Know About The History of Horse Racing There has been horse racing of sorts for many many years. Horse racing began in Assyria in c.1500 B.C. and Chariot Racing was a popular event in Roman Times. It was in fact the Romans who are thought to have ran the first horse race in the UK, however the first actual recorded event of a meeting was in 1174, this took place at a horse fair in the north-west part of London called Smithfield. Royal Connections The Royal Family are behind many of the historic developments that changed and shaped racing over the years, with Henry II importing horses specifically for breeding and Charles II being the first to introduce a set of rules in 1664 (for the Newmarket Town Plate). It was in 1752 the Jockey Club formed and penned The Rules of Racing. First horse races The Derby is the oldest flat race having begun in 1780 at the Earl of Derby's estate in Epsom, it was run on a sweepstakes basis and is still of course being run every year now, as is the Grand National which was first run in 1856, however the first recorded national hunt (as we know it now) race was in Cork, Ireland in 1752, it was a 4 miles 5 furlongs contest between two church steeples and that is the reason the term 'steeplechase' was coined. Purpose and types of horse racing The purpose of a H.race is to determine the fastest of two or more horses over a specific distance with the first horse to cross the winning line being the winner. Horse Racing Categories - Flat In the UK and Ireland there are three variations of race categories. The first is Flat Racing, where horses run over a distance between 5 furlongs and 2 miles 6 furlongs on turf. The flat season starts in March and runs through to November with varying quality of races with Group 1 contests being the highest. The youngest horses competing on the flat are 2 years old. Horse Racing Categories - All Weather All Weather Racing is the second race category and is similar to flat racing other than contests take place on an artificial surface, which can be used all year round (hence the name All Weather). Many of the All Weather H.racing tracks also have floodlit tracks meaning they can offer night racing.
  • 11. 11 Horse Racing Categories - National Hunt The third category is National Hunt where horses compete on turf over longer distances ranging from 1 mile 6 furlongs (very minimal number of junior bumper races) and 4 miles 4 furlongs. Within National Hunt there are further classification types, these are Bumpers (also known as National Hunt Flat races) where there are no obstacles and are aimed at giving horses the experience of competing on a race track, Chases where the competitors must clear fences and Hurdles where they must jump hurdles. This means for example that you can have a handicap chase or a maiden hurdle etc. The difference between a fence and a hurdle is quite significant with a fence being sturdier and higher. A hurdle race will only contain hurdles whereas a chase can contain a variety of obstacles including water jumps and ditches as well as fences. Horse Racing Classification Within each category of racing there are different types of contests dependent on a horse's experience and ability. Generally races are categorised by an age group (for example 4 year olds+) and/or an official rating bracket (a score given to each horse by the handicapper based on its performance to date). Maiden races are for horses who have not yet won a race. Handicaps are when a horse is weighted dependent on its past ability - in an ideal world, a handicap should result in all horses crossing the finish line at the same time. Nursery races are handicap races on the flat/all weather for two year old horses. Non handicaps are when all horses carry the same weight (although this figure can be adjusted based on penalties applied as set out in the race terms - for example the rules may state that all horses will carry 9 stone but that an additional weight of 3 pounds will be applied to horses who have won in the last 6 weeks). Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/4922277
  • 12. 12 Easy Point System For Horse Racing Wagering This is an easy to follow method that I am going to explain because I want to show you how critical it is to use a systematic method, a system, to handicap and wager on horse races. Now admittedly, this is a pretty simple method and a large number of punters spend hours reading a racing form or playing with computer programs to figure out the contenders in a race. Some people call handicapping an intellectual sport and do it for fun or the challenge while others do it for profit. Because it costs money to play the races, if you aren't making money, it can be an expensive hobby. With that thought in mind, let's look at how we can at least support the hobby with winnings from the races. The goal of making a profit should always be somewhere in mind, if you want to support your handicapping. Keep it in the back of your mind while you read the race and determine the contenders. You may think that all the people who are cashing tickets after a race are winners, but such is not the case. If you are a pro at gambling and handicapping, you know what I mean. Cashing a winning ticket does not make you a winner in the long run. How can that be? Well the people who cash tickets after a race may have spent too much for that ticket and didn't actually make a profit on the race. Others may have profited from that race but didn't manage their money well and wound up losing for the day, week, or month. Here is what I am getting at, the professional gamblers and horse players are not only good at picking winners, but they are also good at picking bets that are profitable over the long run. In order to be successful, you must be good at picking horses and bets. Let's do a little exercise that will help you to start thinking along the lines of odds in comparison to a horse's real chances of winning, the basis for picking good bets. We'll start with 100% of the money invested in a horse race by all the bettors and then subtract 20% which is approximately the track's take out, or vig. We are left with 80% of the pool, the amount that will be distributed to the winners. Then we'll consider the number of horses in the field. Divide the 80% by the number of horses in the field. If there are 8 horses in the field, then each horse accounts for about 10% of the pool because 80 divided by 8 equals 10. Let's go one step farther and call that 10% a unit. Next we will consider the factors of a horse race.
  • 13. 13 1. Consistency of the runners is determined by dividing the number of races a horse ran by the number of times it won. So a runner that won 2 out of 10 races has a consistency rating of 2 out of 10 or 1/5 or 20%. The horse with the highest consistency rating gets the 10% for that factor. The horse who wins each factor gets 10% for that factor. 2. Class is arrived at by dividing the amount of money the horse has made in its lifetime by the number of races it has run. So if a horse made $10,000 and ran 10 times it would have averaged $1,000 per race. If the horse has raced at least five times in the current year you should divide this years winnings by the number of races it ran this year. If it raced less than five times, use lifetime races and earnings. 3. Jockey's are easy to compute. Just find the jockey's winning percentage. 4. Trainers are also easy to figure, once again, use the winning percentage. 5. Speed in last race. Find the horse with the fastest speed rating in its last race. 6. Overall Speed is computed by finding the fastest speed rating in the last 60 days. If they don't list speed ratings, use raw times at the distance, for instance, 6 furlongs at 1:10 or whatever. 7. Won Last Race (if two or more horses won their last races, give the 10% to the one who won in the classiest race.) 8. Just won at the same distance on the same track (if two horses have done it, give the 10% to the one who did it at the highest level, if it is still a tie, give each one 5%) Now let's put it all together and see if we can't make heads or tails of the runners to figure out what fair odds are for each racer... 1. Each factor listed above is worth 10%. The horse with the highest rating for each factor gets 10%. It is actually possible for a horse to be the leader in all categories and to get the whole 80%, but that doesn't usually happen.
  • 14. 14 2. The next step is to determine what amount of money should be allotted to comprise realistic payoffs, good bets. The odds you see on the toteboard are figured by turning the percentage of the pool bet on the horse into a fraction. An example would be a runner with half of the pool bet on it, 50%, would be at 1/2 odds because dividing 50 into 100 gives us the fraction, 1/2. This means that the horse should win half the time if it is really as good as the public thinks it is. Reading the table below, we see that a four dollar payoff would be a fair payoff for the horse for every $2 bet on it. Fair Odds Percentage 2/5 80% 3/5 70% 4/5 60% 1/1 50% 8/5 40% 2/1 30% 4/1 20% 9/1 10% So if you look at the factors in the race and estimate that a horse who had the best time in its last race and also has the best jockey (gets 10% for each factor so it is a 20% horse) is going off at more than 4/1 odds, then it is a profitable bet because it will win about 1 out of 5 times but pays more than $10, the cost of the base bets. This system is not meant to be used for serious wagering. It is simply an exercise to get you thinking in terms of probability and payoff, the true key to making a profit at horse racing handicapping. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/1813280
  • 15. 15 Determining Fitness In Horse Racing And How To Pick The One In Peak Condition When determining the winner of a horse race it boils down to two basic questions. Can the horse physically win the race and by physically I mean is he in fit condition to for today's race? The second question which is equally important: is the horse superior in his ability (competitive enough) to win at today's level of horse racing? When handicapping the condition of a horse its important to remember that no matter how much superior ability the horse has if he is in poor shape or condition he will not win the race. Looking at previous workouts and races in the Daily Racing Form you can determine quickly the condition of the horse. Start by looking at how recent was the last race he ran in? A horse that has been away for 60 to 90 days needless to say is not in the best physical shape to contend. Its important to look at large gaps between races the horse might have ran just a couple weeks ago but before that it was 2 months. A good rule of thumb is if it has had 3 races after a lengthy layoff its in good shape to run today. As a rule competition makes a horse more fit than training but if no races are present workouts are listed at the bottom help you see the fitness of a horse. In handicapping horse racing a horse that has not raced in a month and no workouts is in questionable condition. So is a horse that had a year layoff with many workouts. A successful handicapper in horse racing has to make a decision of the fitness on a horse if there are several races that its been in consistently then there is no problem if not it becomes a guessing game. sometimes there are legitimate reasons for a month layoff. Here are some hard fast rules for figuring out if the horse is in good form. In Betting on claiming races follow closely these considerations 1.) In recent races at 7 furlongs or less, accept horses that have run within the last month, preferably at the same track they are today. 2.) In routes, horses should show a race within the last month plus 2 workouts. If they have raced within 2 weeks and show one workout, this is acceptable. If within one week no workouts are needed.
  • 16. 16 3.) At 7 furlongs or less, horses can be on form even if they have not raced in 45 days, provided they have been working out at regular intervals of four or day longer and have previously won after absences of that length or longer. In Betting on non claiming races (allowance, handicap, and stakes horses)you can be more relaxed with these bigger races 1.) Horses that have been out 60 to 90 days are rarely in good form unless they have worked out often with respectable clockings. Some tips on this below A workout is more satisfactory if the horse breezes (runs without urging) at a rate of approximate 12 seconds for each 1/8 mile. 1.00b for five is a definite sign of life, so is 1.13b for six A longer workout is always more significant than a shorter one If it has a bullet by the workout it means the horse had a very fast workout and should be noted~ be on the lookout for these trends on workouts if its been awhile since the horse has raced. 2.) In allowance races the horse that has raced well in the last week or two is better than one that has not been our for four weeks or more. Along with what to look for to see if a horse is poised to run a great race there are also some danger signs for ones not being fit. Here they are: 1.) Throw out any horse that bled, ran sore or finished lame in last race 2.) Throw out any horse that slowed into the stretch considerably or bore out notably in last race. 3.) Throw out any horse that is stepping up in class after a race it won while losing ground in the driving stretch.
  • 17. 17 4.) Except for the highly consistent horses that give their best every race~ throw out any 4 year old or older, that engaged in dueling finishes in its last 2 outings. (notable exceptions are lightly raced 3 year olds of really high quality or handicap and stake races from top barns) 5.) Throw out any horse aged 5 or older whose best effort at today's distance occurred in its last race, unless the horse is a male and it demonstrated reserved speed. 6.) Throw out any claiming horse whose last race was a big win more than 2 weeks ago. Big wins mean horses that won easily with some reserved speed. For example gaining lengths after already being in first. Some horses in peak condition still cannot beat the competitors so there are variety of factors that will tell us what the story is to come. Click on the class factor to help with judging the quality of the horse. When you begin to handicap a race the factor of condition is an excellent starting point and can help you narrow down the field quickly. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/1121246