So far, two UNDP-hosted workshops (June and October 2017) – attended by over 70 officials from departments under MoAC – have focused on prioritization for adaptation planning, using multi-criteria analysis (MCA); and developing a preliminary screening system for ranking and fine-tuning ongoing climate-sensitive projects and programmes. The workshop in June focused on providing an overview of MCA as a tool to priority actions. Participants gained a better appreciation of the process and key steps involved, as well as its strengths and limitations in the context of climate adaptation planning. Feedback and key insights were also gained by MOAC on how MCA could be used in the context of implementing Thailand’s new sectoral climate change strategy (ACCSP). In a follow-up workshop in October, participants learned the key steps to apply tools and methods in the context of their work. After identifying key areas from the revised five-year Agricultural Climate Change Strategic Plan 2017-2021, MoAC’s is enhancing its capacity with the support of the NAP-Ag programme to to prioritize these activities, which will be funded under the Ministry’s annual budgetary cycle and put forward to international climate funds.

1. Adapting to future impacts of climate
change and screening adaptation projects
and programmes - key concepts and
principles (part 1)
Workshop ‘Smart Decision-Making for Climate Change Adaptation Supported by Multi-Criteria Analysis’
Presented by Martin Rokitzki
(PlanAdapt, International consultant)

2. Adaptation - What types of interventions?

3. Adaptation - What types of interventions?

4. Adaptation continuum

5. Dealing with Uncertainty – Managing Risks
• Diversification
• Adaptive management
• Learning – iterative processes - flexibility
• No or low-regret
• (Indication of) Trends can be sufficient to make decisions - other
sectors that constantly make decisions under uncertainty, e.g.
finance/ insurance sector
• Better access to insurance and compensation mechanisms

7. Risk perception
• Risk perception – psychological (behavioral economics), risk-specific,
time-specific, resource-specific
• Risk screening of projects – Are the project outcomes threatened by
climate risk?
• 3 types of outcomes:
• Project implementation can go ahead as planned;
• Project design needs to be modified;
• Project should not go ahead.

8. Low regret – robust adadptation
• Robust adaptation measures are defined as measures which satisfy a
number of “robustness principles” such as
• (i) low regret,
• (ii) reversible and flexible (to keep the cost of being wrong about future
climate change as low as possible),
• (iii) incorporate safety or security margins to design criteria, and
• (iv) employ “soft” (e.g., institutional and planning solutions.

9. Risk of maladaptation
• Example: Malawi risk insurance failed
to make payments due to flawed
design of payment conditions

10. Trade-offs / conflicting criteria
• Example: The most profitable is often not the most environmentally-
friendly or socially inclusive or healthiest, e.g. use fertilizer or
pesticide in agriculture - ‘fallacy of win-win-win’
• Good decision-making considers them and makes them explicit
• Trade-off game: http://esgame.unige.ch/