influencing population size

1. INFLUENCINGINFLUENCING
POPULATION SIZEPOPULATION SIZE

2.  Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition – as countries– as countries
become economically developed, their birthbecome economically developed, their birth
and death rates tend to declineand death rates tend to decline
 Four stages:Four stages:

Preindustrial stagePreindustrial stage – little population growth,– little population growth,
high birth rate, but high death rate due to highhigh birth rate, but high death rate due to high
infant mortalityinfant mortality

Transitional stageTransitional stage – industrialization begins,– industrialization begins,
better food production and health care, rapidbetter food production and health care, rapid
population growth, death rates drop and birthpopulation growth, death rates drop and birth
rates remain highrates remain high

3. 
Industrial stageIndustrial stage – widespread advances,– widespread advances,
population growth slower, birth rate drops andpopulation growth slower, birth rate drops and
approaches death rate, most developed and aapproaches death rate, most developed and a
few developing countriesfew developing countries

Postindustrial stagePostindustrial stage – zero population growth,– zero population growth,
birth rate = death rate, population size maybirth rate = death rate, population size may
decrease, some of most developed countriesdecrease, some of most developed countries

5.  Demographic trapDemographic trap – rapid population– rapid population
growth in developing countries outstripsgrowth in developing countries outstrips
economic growth – countries caught in stageeconomic growth – countries caught in stage
2 (transitional stage)2 (transitional stage)

Ex: some African countries with high HIV/AIDSEx: some African countries with high HIV/AIDS
rates are falling back to stage 1 (preindustrial)rates are falling back to stage 1 (preindustrial)

6. Family PlanningFamily Planning
 Choosing when to have children and how manyChoosing when to have children and how many
 Birth spacing, birth control, health careBirth spacing, birth control, health care
 Has reduced the number of births andHas reduced the number of births and
abortions worldwideabortions worldwide

Responsible for 55%Responsible for 55%
drop in TFR indrop in TFR in
developing countriesdeveloping countries
from 1960 to 2006from 1960 to 2006

7. Family PlanningFamily Planning
 Women tend to have fewer children if they are:Women tend to have fewer children if they are:

EducatedEducated

Employed outside the homeEmployed outside the home

Do not have their human rights suppressedDo not have their human rights suppressed

8. Family PlanningFamily Planning
 The best way to slow population growth is aThe best way to slow population growth is a
combination of:combination of:

Investing in family planningInvesting in family planning

Reducing povertyReducing poverty

Elevating status of womenElevating status of women
Measuring Up – Population Data & Women’sMeasuring Up – Population Data & Women’s
EmpowermentEmpowerment
The Girl EffectThe Girl Effect
The Girl Effect: The Clock is TickingThe Girl Effect: The Clock is Ticking

9. SLOWING POPULATION GROWTHSLOWING POPULATION GROWTH
IN INDIA AND CHINAIN INDIA AND CHINA
 For more than five decades, India has tried toFor more than five decades, India has tried to
control its population growth with onlycontrol its population growth with only
modest successmodest success
 Since 1970, China has used a government-Since 1970, China has used a government-
enforced program to cut its birth rate in halfenforced program to cut its birth rate in half
and sharply reduce its fertility rateand sharply reduce its fertility rate

10. Fig. 9-15, p. 186
Total fertility rate
Percentage
of world
population
Population
Population (2050)
(estimated)
Illiteracy (% of adults)
Population under age 15 (%)
Population growth rate (%)
17%
20%
1.1 billion
1.3 billion
1.6 billion
India
China
GDP PPP per capita
Percentage living
below $2 per day
Life expectancy
47%
17%
36%
20%
1.6%
0.6%
1.4 billion
$5,890
$3,120
47
80
70 years
62 years
27
58
1.6 children per women (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate
2.9 children per women (down from 5.3 in 1970)

11. India’s FailedIndia’s Failed
Family Planning ProgramFamily Planning Program
 Poor planningPoor planning
 Bureaucratic inefficiencyBureaucratic inefficiency
 Low status of womenLow status of women
 Extreme poverty, unemploymentExtreme poverty, unemployment
 Lack of administrative financial supportLack of administrative financial support
 Disagreement over the best ways to slowDisagreement over the best ways to slow
population growthpopulation growth

12. China’s Family Planning ProgramChina’s Family Planning Program
 Currently, China’s TFR is 1.6 children perCurrently, China’s TFR is 1.6 children per
womanwoman
 China has moved 300 million people out ofChina has moved 300 million people out of
povertypoverty
 Problems:Problems:

Strong male preference = gender imbalanceStrong male preference = gender imbalance

Average population age is increasingAverage population age is increasing

Not enough resources to support populationNot enough resources to support population
 Starting to end one child policy in 2015Starting to end one child policy in 2015
 Huge economic growth has led to increasedHuge economic growth has led to increased
resource use and pollutionresource use and pollution

13. HUMAN IMPACTS ONHUMAN IMPACTS ON
NATURAL SYSTEMSNATURAL SYSTEMS
 Due to pop.Due to pop.
Growth,Growth,
(excluding(excluding
Antarctica) humanAntarctica) human
activities haveactivities have
affected aboutaffected about
83% of the earths83% of the earths
land surface.land surface.

14. HUMAN IMPACTS ONHUMAN IMPACTS ON
NATURAL SYSTEMSNATURAL SYSTEMS
 We have usedWe have used
technology to alter muchtechnology to alter much
of the rest of nature inof the rest of nature in
ways that threaten theways that threaten the
survival of many othersurvival of many other
species and couldspecies and could
reduce the quality of lifereduce the quality of life
for our own speciesfor our own species

15. PLANETARY BOUNDARIESPLANETARY BOUNDARIES

16. Intro to NOVAIntro to NOVA
World in the Balance - The PeopleWorld in the Balance - The People
ParadoxParadox