Sustainable Water - Energy - Centric Communities school May 9 - 13, 2016 – Lake Como School of Advanced Studies

1. ELEMENTS OF RESILIENT SYSTEMS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNERS, S. Moddemeyer, 2015
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1 DIVERSITY
Encourage
diversity of actors
and processes at
each scale.
Systems can increase adaptive capacity with multi-scale diversity. Resilient
financial portfolios have diversity to protect holdings from being overly
reliant on one sector of the economy. Likewise, broad diversity of race,
culture, gender, skills, income, and history helps a community or utility to
have increased capacity to understand change, innovate in the face of
change, and provide perspective to change or disruption. Infrastructure
systems as well can achieve response diversity and functional diversity by
designing systems and sub-systems at multiple scales. If one subsystem fails,
overall function of the system persists because of the continued operation
of other subsystems with different but similar functions.
Too much diversity can lead to an inability to organize around adaptation to
change. Thus highly fractionated systems with overlapping responsibilities
and governance can benefit from establishment of unifying goals, shared
values, and access to information that align action around adaptation.
Example: Diversity of scale. Design district energy and water systems that
nest into larger centralized systems. This adds additional capacity to the
system as an impact at any one scale may not impact systems at different
scales with different system drivers. This is related to redundancy (and
polycentric governance – a feature of adaptive governance).Example:
Diversity of sources. Designate higher values for resources that are climate-
proof, such as reuse of treated wastewater. Highly treated wastewater set
to a Class A standard can be used for non-potable purposes including toilet
flushing and irrigation – both of which typically use potable water. If we
reduce potable water use by 40 – 50% by implementing water reuse, we
enhance the capacity of the potable water system to adapt to shifts in water
availability.
Example: Diversity of Leadership. Diversity in management of an urban
utility can broaden the range of management experience and problem-
solving. Staff with different backgrounds, cultures, and life experience can
open up a broader range of alternatives to be considered. Broader
alternatives consideration, especially across the silos of expertise can often
provide the most value and adaptability for urban systems facing novel
challenges from a variable climate.
Example: Fractionated systems. Salmon that spawn in Puget Sound must
swim through 26 jurisdictions to reach their spawning and rearing areas in
the Cedar River watershed. Because these 26 jurisdictions are mostly
focused on their own needs, the coordination to avoid extinction of
protected salmon was not present. To solve this, the 26 jurisdictions agreed
to work together on a watershed scale and to plan and coordinate their
actions to make improvements that support valuable native salmon
populations.
2 MODULARITY
Use cost-effective, modular,
repeatable strategies
Modularity increases diversity of connectivity between
systems providing additional buffers in times of shock or
disruption. This can limit the spread of severe impacts felt

2. ELEMENTS OF RESILIENT SYSTEMS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNERS, S. Moddemeyer, 2015
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in one quadrant but not in other.
Example: Habitat that is restored in adjoining watersheds
can provide a functional buffer if one watershed suffers
extraordinary events such as fire, flood, or landslides.
Example: Nested semi-autonomous district-scale energy
and water systems that use onsite renewables have
different drivers and over-lapping function that can survive
an impact to the larger centralized system. This modular
approach can be repeated across urban service areas to
increase adaptive capacity. Centralized systems continue to
provide the backbone levels of service, but district-scale
systems can relieve the peak demands on the centralized
systems and provide additional buffers against extreme
events.
3 CONNECTIVITY
Maintain and enhance
connectivity up, down, and
between scales to share
resources and information.
Connectivity is about the structure and strength of links
between nodes and scales. By connecting the most
connected nodes the flow of information and resources can
increase as access to insight, information and feedbacks is
expanded. Multi-scale infrastructure systems also benefit
with sub-systems that are not wholly dependent upon one
another. Too much connectivity can create new
vulnerability if one species, system, or mode dominates.
Absent multi-scale diversity or modularity, too much
connectivity can accelerate transmission of disturbances
leading to widespread impacts.
Example: The ‘Internet of Things’ increases the potential for
higher efficiencies as smart systems can be applied to a
range of functions across multiple scales. However, this
connectivity comes at a price if the Internet malfunctions
for any reason. Thus, while it is important to design
systems to benefit from digital connectivity, it is also
imperative to design parallel analogue systems that can
continue to operate despite the loss of internet
connectivity. Only by having both systems do we achieve
the adaptability and flexibility to survive and thrive when
conditions change abruptly or over time.
Example: During times of stress, communities that are
connected are better able to adapt to changing conditions.
For example, if a tornado or flood destroys a business
district or neighborhood, the local people who know each
other in advance of the event are much more able to work
together to address the needs of the moment. Thus a key
strategy for social resilience is to connect the highly-
connected nodes in a community before an event.
Government officials, community leaders, cultural leaders,
and opinion leaders in business, environment, and social

3. ELEMENTS OF RESILIENT SYSTEMS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNERS, S. Moddemeyer, 2015
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equity should be well-acquainted with each other to
leverage each’s network of trusted contacts and advisors.
4 STORAGE
Store and restore capacity of
reserves at each scale so isolated
elements can survive for a period
on their own.
The overall ability of a system to absorb shocks or
disruption is increased if essential reserves of energy, food
and water are stored at each scale. If householders have
the right information, have onsite access to emergency
food and water, and know how to care for their immediate
needs following a disturbance, then the overall resilience of
the community is enhanced. Energy storage at the building
and neighborhood scale can moderate and avoid costly
peak demand energy supplies and soften the impact of
centralized outages.
Example: A limited number of food distribution warehouse
complexes serve the east coast of the United States. If this
handful of operators is out of service for more than a day
food shortages will rapidly spread across the cities of the
eastern seaboard. Storage of food at the neighborhood
level can greatly increase the capacity of communities to
handle extreme events. Storage at the neighborhood scale
is typical of food banks, for example, who feed the poor.
Often, however, food banks are not robust to extreme
events as they tend to operate with extremely low budgets.
Building up the capacity of food banks becomes a reliability
strategy that helps every day AND during times of stress.
Example: As battery technology continues to advance, the
potential for electrical energy storage increases. Thus
batteries in buildings or electric auto fleets parked in
buildings can become a future source of reliability in the
electrical grid. This increase in storage can also help to
shave the expensive peak demands from the system.
Likewise, peak demand can be attenuated if non-peak uses
can be shifted. Domestic hot water can also be stored at
the individual building scale where peak demand for hot
water can be shifted to off-peak demand by installing
redundant hot water systems that are operated centrally
by the energy grid provider. This creates additional
buffering for wind and other intermittent renewables.
5 FEEDBACK
Incorporate extensive monitoring
and feedback loops to enable
systems to moderate behavior
and adapt as conditions change
Monitoring and understanding signals of impending change
can provide feedback that helps to maintain stability in the
face of shocks or surprise or long term underlying variables.
Managing well in the face of change includes having the
ability to sense and understand changes underway whether

4. ELEMENTS OF RESILIENT SYSTEMS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNERS, S. Moddemeyer, 2015
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in simple systems (cause and effect) or complex systems
where reinforcing drivers and balancing feedback push
systems toward undesirable threshold and feedback loops.
Monitoring these drivers to detect and avert an undesirable
regime shift is central to sustainability.
Example: Remote sensing and ubiquitous monitoring tools
are enhancing the ability to monitor and adapt to change.
Early warning of changes underway enhances the ability of
a system to accommodate change whether it is in leak
detection, identification of the use of energy from specific
devices, water stress levels in urban vegetation, post-
disaster mapping, or wiki surveys of affected populations.
6 STORY
Tell the story of the place to
foster understanding of complex
adaptive systems and to reinforce
the social connections and
identity of residents, employers,
and employees.
The story we tell ourselves about ourselves is fundamental
to identity and culture. In fostering a resilience ethic, the
story becomes the framework upon which expectations
and anticipations about “what’s next” evolve.
Understanding that we are in a complex continually
adapting world can become a framework for how we give
meaning to shocks, shifts, and gradual change. In sharing
stories we reinforce social connections and help people to
understand intuitively that we are in a world where coping
with change and uncertainty is understood as an
appropriate management approach.
Example: How populations characterize a disaster has
implications for the speed of recovery. If a group thinks of
itself as “victims” of an event, they tend to be more passive
and disempowered in their approach to recovery. If on the
other hand, they think of themselves as “survivors” they
are more likely to be engaged in accelerating recovery.
Thus civic leaders are strongly encouraged to frame their
messages in terms of “who we are.” “We are people who
are survivors, people who help each other, people who build
back better for ourselves and for future generations.” These
types of messages are influential in how people perceive
the event, and whether or not they “tip in” into the
recovery.
Example: Many cultures have stories that are used to pass
knowledge between generations. The stories create
expectations about how our people react, the challenges
we have faced, and the lessons that we have learned over
time. These stories become the foundation for identity –
and identity is an important element in the definition of
resilience. Resilient systems adapt to change while
retaining their identity.

5. ELEMENTS OF RESILIENT SYSTEMS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNERS, S. Moddemeyer, 2015
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7 TRUST
Build trust by developing
accountability measures such as
regulation, incentives, and
verification
Resilience of a system is enhanced if accountability
measures, regulation and verification provide metrics that
allows us to accept as virtual givens that people and
processes will tend to act as expected. Tracking these
measures becomes another element of the monitoring and
feedback loops described in 5 above and when shared can
be used to align actors engaged across the span of
resilience activities.
Example: Building codes are requirements that protect
public health and safety. If those are enforced, then
residents and interested buyers can be assured of some
reasonable level of safety with their ownership. Without
trust, everything must be personally checked and
rechecked which can lead to deep inefficiencies.
Example: Graft can hobble the resilience of a system as
communities know that decisions are not made on their
merits but rather on the value to inside operators who
benefit disproportionately. Without trust, a system cannot
provide consistency during times of stress and change. Thus
people can have reasonable expectations of personal
safety, or that if they play by the rules they should not be
penalized. However, when the rules bind a system such
that it cannot adapt, then rules may make a system brittle
which can lead to failure.
8. SELF-ORGANIZING
Create systems and sub-systems
that are semi-autonomous and
have the capacity for self-
governance and the ability to
adapt to feedback
Self-organized systems have greater capacity to self-correct
given new insight, information and feedback. They do not
require extensive command and control and are the source
of innovation that can bolster large systems. Nested self-
organizing systems can create novel adaptations to
dynamic change. Semi-autonomous systems are connected
to and rely upon other systems up and down in scale where
fast change can flow up in scale while slow and large scale
change can add system stability.
Example: If all operations are centralized, a system reduces
its capacity to adapt to variability, and decision-making at
higher levels can become a bottleneck. Thus self-organizing
systems and sub-systems that have operational autonomy
are much more able to make decisions in the field to
address emergent issues in a timely manner. Broad
guidance, shared values, and authority to act throughout
the organizations are essential for a system to be adaptable
and flexible to change over time.
NOTE: Elements of Resilience for Infrastructure Planners, 2015 by S. Moddemeyer, 2015 was developed after review of papers
identifying common characteristics of general resilience including: Stephen R. Carpenter, et al General Resilience to Cope with
Extreme Events, Sustainability 2012, 4(12), 3248-3259; and, R. Biggs, et al, Toward Principles for Enhancing the Resilience of
Ecosystem Services; Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 37: 421-448 (Volume publication date November 2012).