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Scv vs 3 w
- 1. 1 of 7 SCV & 3W Sales Trend Analysis : Focus on Goods Carriers
- 2. 2 of 7 • Considerations for the study • Comparison of total domestic sales of 3W vs SCV from 2007-2014 • Segment wise sales analysis (Goods carrier & Passenger carrier) • Goods carrier manufacturer wise sales analysis Flow of presentation
- 3. 3 of 7 Considerations for the Study Segment Selection for SCV for 3W Passenger Carriers LCVs up to 5 tonnes All Goods Carriers LCVs up to 3.5 tonnes All Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r) A fairly popular parameter for establishing correlation between two sets of linear data where the value r = 1 means a perfect positive correlation and the value r = -1 means a perfect negative correlation The agenda behind this study lies in the hypothesis that the market share of three wheelers in goods carrier segment have been cannibalised by sales of lower tonnage LCVs in the same segment
- 4. 4 of 7 Total domestic sales (Including passenger & goods carrier) • CAGR (2007-14) for 3W – 2% • CAGR (2007-14) for SCV – 15% 139472 167199 157776 226064 288818 379903 455774 374529 403910 364703 349727 440368 526024 513251 538290 479634 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SCV 3W Sales in Nos.
- 5. 5 of 7 Segment Wise Sales analysis 132065 157313 147470 212417 272995 361192 437868 359885 166735 132571 81264 90706 100666 107015 97166 94711 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SCV 3W • Pearson Correlation Coefficient = -0.43 • Moderate negative correlation, suggesting that the SCV goods carrier sales is growing at the expense of 3W goods carrier sales 23742 27683 26952 34421 44816 49371 47827 42799 237175 232132 268463 349662 425358 406236 441124 384923 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SCV 3W Goods Carrier Sales Passenger Carrier Sales CAGR over 2007-14 SCV – 15% ; 3W – 8% CAGR over 2007-14 SCV – 9% ; 3W – 7% • Pearson Correlation Coefficient = 0.96 • Passenger carrier figures are closely correlated i.e. they are not cannibalizing each others' sales Sales in Nos.
- 6. 6 of 7 Goods Carrier – Manufacturer wise sales analysis 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Force Motors Ltd Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd Tata Motors Ltd Ashok Leyland Ltd Hindustan Motors Ltd 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Atul Auto Ltd Bajaj Auto Ltd Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd Scooters India Ltd Force Motors Ltd SCV 3W Sales in Nos. Important observations : • 2008-09 : There was a major drop in the sales of 3W (40% YOY) whereas SCV sales figure remained nearly constant • 2009-10 : There was a major growth in the sales of SCVs (44% YOY) and the uptrend continued thereafter until 2012-13
- 7. 7 of 7 End of presentation