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環境水中における相互変動因子評価技術の構築
大島 嵩裕
横浜市立大学大学院 生命医科学研究科
:生命分析研究室
:理化学研究所 環境代謝分析チーム
赤潮:プランクトンの異常増殖に
より海や川、運河、湖沼等が変色
する 現象である。
日本各地の河口や内湾、湖沼等の環境水中で環境変動を引き起こす環境変動因子の特定と、その関係
性を評価する環境評価技術の確立が急務の課題である。
東京湾の赤潮の発生に、関与する変
動因子を特定する評価技術の開発
日本各地でゲリラ的な集中豪雨、国内最高気温記録の更新など様々な環境変動が発生している。
平成26年4月に水循環基本法が制定されるなど、国の水環境に対する意識が高まってきている。
導入
東京湾の赤潮の発生に、
何が関与するか?
気温
水温 有機物
無機物
“何が”を特定する評価技術の開発
時系列分析による評価技術
VARモデル(ベクトル自己回帰モデル)
• VARは多変量時系列で、因果性の推定を行うことができます。また、一般的に経
済・金融分野の解析に用いられる解析手法である
目
的
VARモデル
(多変量時系列分析)
目
的
微細
藻類
有機
物の変動に
が関与しているが明らかになっ
た。
つまり、赤潮の発生に“何
が”関与しているか解る。
因果性の推定
実験方法
VARモデルによるデータ解析
微細藻類
data シーケンサー
赤潮
優占3種
16S目的
変数
変数
変数
赤潮・優占3種
赤潮中の微細藻類で、優占的に分布する、
3種類の微細藻類
2010年4月から2011年3月までの平成22年度の優占3種の時系列データ(月ごと)
の変動に関与する変数(有機物、無機物、気象学的データを)を特定する。
実験方法・VARモデルの問題点
気象
無機
物
微細
藻類
有機
物
微細
藻類
有機
物2
無機
物2
気象
2
目的:変数=1:3 目的:変数=1:3
VARモデルによる解析 VARモデルによる解析
Heterosigma
無機
物2
無機
物2❔
ここの関係性が謎
グループ1で、
有機物が一番
関係性が高い
グループ2で、
無機物2が一番
関係性が高い
実験方法・VARモデルの改良点
様々な変数(代謝物・無機元素・気象データ等)を用いて藻類の変動をモデリング
1:1のVARmodel + 1:1の分散分解により環境変動因子を特定
―Heterocapsa.実測データ
・・・VARによる予測モデル
Relativeabundance
分散分解の解析データ全体に置ける変数の
解析テータが占める割合を算出
実験方法・VARモデルの改良点
pair_VAR<-function(all_mat,target,separate){
library(vars)##read_library
cur_dir<-getwd()
dir.create("pair_VAR")
setwd("pair_VAR")
all_mat<-as.matrix(all_mat)
target<-as.integer(target)
separate<-as.integer(separate)
time_data<-all_mat[,1]##sample_name
select_ta<-all_mat[,2:(target+1)]##target_microbiome
fluc_data<-all_mat[,-1:-(target+1)]##target_metabolite
for(k in 1:length(select_ta[1,])){
result_1<-matrix(NA,separate,length(fluc_data[1,]))##result_1_place
result_2<-matrix(NA,separate+3,length(fluc_data[1,]))##result_2_place
for(i in 1:length(fluc_data[1,])){
var_1<-cbind(select_ta[,k],fluc_data[,i])
colnames(var_1)<-c(colnames(select_ta)[k],colnames(fluc_data)[i])
var_ts<-as.matrix(ts(var_1))
mode(var_ts)<-"numeric"
var_selected<-VARselect(var_ts,type="both")
var_res<-VAR(var_ts,p=var_selected$selection[1])
var_res_part<-var_res$varresult##res
predict_value<-var_res_part[[1]]$fitted.values##predict_value
measured_value<-var_res_part[[1]]$model$y##measured_value
RMSE<-sqrt(sum((predict_value-measured_value)^2)/length(predict_value))##RMSE
result_frag_1<-c(predict_value,RMSE)##predict_value&RMSE
result_1[,i]<-result_frag_1
var_res_fevd<-fevd(var_res,n.ahead=separate)
cont_val<-var_res_fevd[[1]][,2]##contribution_value
cont_val_sum<-sum(cont_val)##total
cont_val_mean<-mean(cont_val)##average
cont_val_sd<-sd(cont_val)##sdev
result_frag_2<-c(cont_val,cont_val_sum,cont_val_mean,cont_val_sd)
result_2[,i]<-result_frag_2
}
colnames(result_1)<-colnames(fluc_data)
colnames(result_2)<-colnames(fluc_data)
result_1<-cbind(c(seq(1,length(time_data)-1,length=length(time_data)-1),"RMSE"),result_1)
result_2<-cbind(c(time_data,"total","average","sd"),result_2)
write.table(result_1,paste(colnames(select_ta)[k],"_var_model.csv",sep=""),col.names=T,row.names=F,sep=",")##wr
ite_result_1
write.table(result_2,paste(colnames(select_ta)[k],"_FEVD.csv",sep=""),col.names=T,row.names=F,sep=",")##write_r
esult_2
}
setwd(cur_dir)
}
1:1のVARmodel + 1:1の分散分解
RMSEと分解分散の合計値を算出
自動化
プログラミング
結果
結果2
平成22年度は、例年と異なり降水量が少なく、沿岸で優占する珪藻Skeletoemaが少な
いことが港湾局から報告されており、今回行った多変量時系列分析でも、その傾向は反
映されていた。さらに、この年のサンプリング地点での赤潮優占種となった
Heterocapsaは鉄要求性が高いことが知られており、こうした従来の知見を指示するこ
ともできた。以上のことから、多変量時系列分析による解析方法は、赤潮優占種の増殖
を引き起こす環境変動因子の特定に、十分に利用可能であることが分かった。
参照:東京都庁 環境局 平成22年度東京湾調査結果 報告書
まとめ
1. VARモデリングおよび分散分解を基軸とした環境変動因子スクリーニ
ング技術の構築に成功した。
2. 無機物では、Fe, Mg, Ca, K, がHeterocapsa,に、有機物では、
Glycine, Sucdnate, Glutamicacid,がHeterosigma.のpopulation
dynamicsに影響を与える重要な環境変動因子であることを明らかに
した。Skeletonema.に関しては、2010年度の特異的な気象条件が影
響したことを見出すことが出来た。
今後の展望・・・・地域間の関係性を俯瞰する解析と組み合わせたい

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