Connections for a brave new world explores accelerating technology

Connections for a
brave new world
David Wood
@dw2
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists
londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
The surprising changes ahead

@dw2
Page 2
Opportunities
Threats
The set
of
possible
futures
Foresight…
… is hard

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“History does not repeat itself,
but it rhymes”
Attributed to
Mark Twain, novellist
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

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Changes in the last 10 years
2005
2015
5 times
faster
5 times
cheaper
5 times
smaller
Smartphones
Computing+++

1993
2013
Barry Ritkoltz
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-2013/

@dw2
Page 7http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/

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Page 9
http://edge.org/conversation/the-technium
Kevin Kelly
Co-founder, Wired
There’s a sense that all the big
things have happened –
but relatively speaking, nothing
big has happened yet.
We’re just at the beginning of the
beginning of all these kind of
changes
The next 20 years are going to
make this last 20 years just pale

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BN
CI
NBIC Convergence

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Atoms Genes
Bits Neurons
Bio-
Tech
Nano-
Tech
Cogno-
Tech
ICT
Software
Hardware
BiologyPhysical

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Physical + Virtual
VR -> AR
MOOCs, cryptocurrency…
Deep machine learning
Hybrid intelligence
Mobile -> Wearable ->
-> Insideable ->…
Cyborgs
3
AI + Human Intelligence
Human + MachineSoftware + Biology
Synthetic biology
Genetic engineering
4
2 1
4 great
convergences

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Accelerating
technology
Enhancing
humans
Extra intelligence
Extra health
Extra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing
humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Extra opportunities Existential risks
Benefits
individuals
Threatens
society
Positive
feedback

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Page 14
Enhancing
humans
Extra intelligence
Extra health
Extra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing
humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Benefits
individuals
Threatens
society
Discussion
Progress will run out of steam?
Unlikely!
(Unless society disintegrates)
We could pull the plug if we want(?)
Unlikely!
There are too many good aspects of
technological advancement


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Page 15
Enhancing
humans
Extra intelligence
Extra health
Extra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing
humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Benefits
individuals
Threatens
society
If we allow individuals to enhance
themselves
through smart R&D and free enterprise
– without government interference –
the world’s social problems will be
solved as a by-product
1
Two
contrasting
views possible
1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive

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http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F0.I.1.pdf
http://eml.berkeley.
edu/~saez/saez-
UStopincomes-
2012.pdf
Thomas Piketty

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/theres-been-class-warfare-for-
the-last-20-years-and-my-class-has-won/2011/03/03/gIQApaFbAL_blog.html
There’s been class warfare
going on for the last 20 years,
and my class has won. We’re
the ones that have gotten our
tax rates reduced dramatically
Warren Buffett,
Investor, “Sage of Omaha”,
2011
Top 400 taxpayers Average income Tax rate
1992 $40M 29%
2010 $227M 21%

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Accelerating
technology
Reduces
prices
Increases
inequality
Positive
feedback
Creates practical abundance

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http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5

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Page 20

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128MB 128GB
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-
now-and-then.html slide 2

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Page 23

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http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-v1

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Page 25
Source:
“Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
http://www.slideshare.net/
vangeest/exponential-
organizations-h

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Page 26
Source:
“Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
organizations-h

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Page 27
Source:
“Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
organizations-h

@dw2
Page 28
Source:
“Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
organizations-h

@dw2
Page 29
Source:
“Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
organizations-h

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Page 30
Accelerating
technology
Reduces
prices
Increases
inequality
Positive
feedback
Creates practical abundance
Enables
fabulous new
functionality
Initially still at exorbitant prices
Many people will be
excluded & alienated
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html
“The Pitchforks Are
Coming… For Us Plutocrats”
– Nick Hanauer
Rich individuals
rapidly improve…

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Page 31
Enhancing
humans
Extra intelligence
Extra health
Extra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing
humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Benefits
individuals
Threatens
society
If we allow individuals to enhance
themselves
through smart R&D and free enterprise
– without government interference –
the world’s social problems will be
solved as a by-product
Alongside smart R&D and the power
of free enterprise, we also need
wise regulation and smart governance
1
2
and new social systems
Two
contrasting
views possible
1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive

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