There are 8 games remaining in the 2012 IPL season. This document analyzes the 256 possible combinations of results and the probabilities of each team finishing in each of the 9 rankings. It then makes assumptions that the two lowest teams, Delhi and Pune, will lose all their remaining games, reducing the combinations to 32. The probabilities of Mumbai, Kolkata, and Kolkata Players qualifying are reduced under this assumption. The document recommends which teams a fan of each team should want to win in the next two matches between Mumbai vs Kolkata and Kolkata Players vs Chennai to best help their team's chances of qualifying.

1. IPL 2012
8 games to go

2. 8 games to go. Which means, there are 256 possible combinations of results.
Let’s assume no match gets washed out. Let’s also assume that NRRs don’t change much.
Here’s a table that shows the number of combinations for each ranking for each team.
e.g. Of the 256 possible combinations of results, 100 of them have CSK coming 4th.
Rank DD MI KKR CSK RCB RR KXP PW DC
1 224 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 32 144 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 44 105 64 16 18 9 0 0
4 0 28 33 100 32 30 33 0 0
5 0 20 19 60 92 38 27 0 0
6 0 4 3 28 72 98 51 0 0
7 0 0 0 4 44 72 136 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 224 32
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 224
Total > 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 256
Probability > 100% 91% 91% 64% 19% 19% 16% 0% 0%
If all matches have a 50-50 chance of going either way, the last row gives the probability of a team qualifying.
Yeah. It’s a pretty useless table.
So let us make one simple assumption - The whipping boys will continue to get whipped.
In other words, let us assume that DC & PW will lose their remaining games.

3. If we assume that DC & PW will lose their matches, we are down to 32 combinations.
For MI & KXP, the probability of qualifying actually comes down. So they will be hoping that DC & PW cause some upsets.
KKR, of course, will then qualify, having beat PW.
Rank DD MI KKR CSK RCB RR KXP PW DC
1 26 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 6 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 8 16 4 2 2 0 0 0
4 0 2 0 14 8 6 2 0 0
5 0 4 0 6 12 6 4 0 0
6 0 2 0 6 8 14 2 0 0
7 0 0 0 2 2 4 24 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 0
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32
Total > 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32
Probability > 100% 81% 100% 56% 31% 25% 6% 0% 0%
So which team should you cheer for in the next two matches...

4. MI vs KKR KXP vs CSK
DD Let the small kids play
If KXP beat CSK & DD beat
MI MI KXP RCB, MI is thru even if they lose
both their games.
But if KKR loses earlier game,
KKR KKR Might as well
Studied Nonchalance start secretly start praying that
KKR beat PW.
I’m a fan of...
CSK Don’t Care But watch
knowledgeably CSK
If MI beat KKR and CSK beat
RCB KKR KXP KXP, RCB is out. Unless DC or
PW win a game.
RR KKR KXP Nothing decisive but improves
their probability
KXP Indifferent KXP KXP has to win their game, and
wait for other results later
PW
Go for a movie
DC