Paper presented at National Level Seminar on India’s Maritime History & Heritage, February 27-28, Mumbai.

1. Will the Indian Ocean
ever truly be India’s Ocean?

2. The Ring of Fire
• China’s “harmonious ocean” project, aka “the string of
pearls”
• A base proper in Gwadar, and ‘presence’ in Male, Galle,
Cocos Is. (Myanmar), Kyaukphu, Chittagong
• Instability in Af-Pak and ‘Iraqistan’
• Piracy in the Horn of Africa and the Straits of Malacca https://srilankanquest.wordpress.com/2012/06/26/another-pearl-makes-
the-string-tighter-sri-lanka-and-the-encirclement-of-india-by-china-2/

3. A Two Carrier Navy
• After Independence, the Indian Navy pushed
for a two-carrier fleet, as naval prowess was
increasingly in the air, not the sea
• The government of the day, however, with its
internationalist and pacifist outlook, was
unwilling
• Also, with conflict in the west being mostly
terrestrial, and conflict in the east unimagined,
a blue-water navy was really a pipe-dream in
those somewhat cash-strapped days
• Yet Governor-General Mountbatten, with
memories fresh from WWII, persuaded Nehru
to invest in at least one carrier
Blueprint to Bluewater, the Indian Navy, 1951-65 by Rear Admiral Satyindra Singh AVSM (Retd.)
Current fleet strength:
2 aircraft carriers
1 amphibious transport
dock
8 landing ship tanks
11 destroyers
14 frigates
23 corvettes
6 mine countermeasure
vessels
15 submarines
28 patrol vessels
4 replenishment oilers
212 aircraft

4. 4 March 1961 - 31 January 1997
Timeline of a (Pipe) Dream
12 May 1987 - 6 March 2017
16 November 2013 - ?
December 2018
2025
INS Vikrant II
INS Vishal

5. Commissioned 4 March 1961
Decommissioned 31 January 1997
Motto Jayema Sam Yudhi
Sprdhah
Scrapped 2014
HMS Hercules
Keel laid 14 October 1943
Launched 22 September 1945
Commissioned Never
Class Majestic
Displacement 16,000 t / 19,500 t
Power 30,000 kW
(4 Admiralty three-drum boilers)
Speed 25 knots
INS Vikrant

6. INAS 300 (White Tigers) Hawker Sea Hawk
INAS 310 (Cobras) Breguet Alizé
INAS 321 (Angels) Alouette III
Squadrons
Honours
Maha Vir Chakra 2
Vir Chakra 12

7. Commissioned 12 May 1987
Decommissioning 6 March 2017
Fate Scrap?
HMS Hermes
Keel laid 21 June 1944
Launched 16 February 1953
Commissioned 25 November 1959
Class Centaur
Displacement 23,900 t / 28,700 t
Power 57,000 kW
(2 Parsons geared steam turbines)
Speed 28 knots
INS Viraat

8. Refit 1996 - 2013
Commissioned 16 November 2013
Decommissioning ?
Admiral Gorshkov
Keel laid 17 February 1978
Launched 1 April 1982
Commissioned 11 December 1987
Class Kiev
Displacement 33,440 t / 44,490 t
Power 134,226 kW
Speed 28 knots
INS Vikramaditya

9. Fixed Wing MiG-29K
Rotatory Wing Kamov Ka-31
Westland Sea King
HAL Dhruv
INS Vikrant (II)
Keel laid 28 February 2009
Launched 12 August 2013
Commissioning December 2018
Class Vikrant
Displacement 40,000 t
Speed 28 knots
Flight Deck 10,000 sq m (262 m)
Naviation

10. Fixed Wing F-18 E/F | F-18 G | F-35 C
Rotatory Wing S 70 | EC 725
INS Vishal
Keel laid Still in design
Launched NA
Commissioning 2025
Class Vikrant
Displacement 65,000 t
Speed NA
Flight Deck 280 m
Naviation
http://defenceupdate.in/ins-vishal-design-phase-close-complete/

11. Superempowered Individuals (SEIs)
• Thomas Friedman first advanced the concept of the
“super-empowered individual.”
• Friedman’s main argument was that globalization had
radically “flattened” the globe, creating new pressure
points
• Individuals seeking to effect systemic change could
target, leverage, and exploit such points
• They are more than just non-state actors (NSAs)

12. Traits of an SEI
With increasing complexity of communication
technologies and interconnectedness of the
world, an SEI can swing either way:
• "Lone Wolf" actor
• Superior Intelligence
• Opportunity for leveraging Complex Systems
• Societal disconnect leading up to alienation
http://zenpundit.blogspot.in/2007/07/who-would-declare-war-on-world-nature.html

13. The super-empowerment of an SEI
Strategists like John Robb, Thomas P.M. Barnett have identified a few opportunities in the current
state of the world that an SEI can exploit.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/10/01/map-of-arms-trade/
http://marksman104.deviantart.com/art/US-RU-
M220A1-Assault-Rifle-varriants-329662603
Weakness of the global supply chain
Increasing power of personalized
weapons and technologyNetwork mobilization power
http://blog.kaggle.com/2016/06/03/da
taset-spotlight-how-isis-uses-twitter/

14. War against SEIs
...eventually, the application of our military power will mirror the dominant threat to a significant degree. In other words, we morph
into a military of superempowered individuals fighting wars against superempowered individuals
- Vice-Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski and Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett
Over time, perhaps as little as in twenty years, and as the leverage provided by technology increases, this threshold will finally reach
its culmination - with the ability of one man to declare war on the world and win.
- John Robb, Brave New War
"First, very few people would be needed to carry out the attack. A single individual could spread a nationwide pandemic using a highly
contagious virus. A two person team would be sufficient to deploy and detonate a couple of nuclear weapons"
- - Dr. Fred C. Ikle, Annihilation From Within
http://zenpundit.blogspot.in/2007/07/who-would-declare-war-on-world-nature.html

15. Naval Battles Today

16. Small is Beautiful?
• The emergence of the SEI stands in stark contrast to the idea of massive armed forces and
humongous war machines
• Agility and flexibility is the need of the hour; as the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the ‘surgical strike’
of 2016 showed
• Lesson from the INS Vikrant: In 1971, it ran a real risk of being taken out by the PNS Ghazi (USS
Diablo), a submarine on a suicide machine
• Is Indian Naviation, so far fitted out for coastal defence and anti-ship, anti-harbour warfare,
prepared for Drone/SEAL operations?
• Or will the aircraft carrier be a sitting duck?

17. 90 fixed wing and
helicopters
USS Nimitz
Keel laid 22 June 1968
Launched 13 May 1972
Commissioned 3 May 1975
Class Nimitz
Displacement 100,020 t
Speed 31.5 knots
Flight Deck 333 m
Naviation

18. 25% more aircraft launches per day
than the Nimitz class
USS Gerald R. Ford
Keel laid 13 November 2009
Launched 9 November 2013
Commissioning 2017
Class Gerald R. Ford
Displacement 100,000 t
Speed 30 knots
Flight Deck 337 m
Naviation

19. Can David really take on the Goliaths?
• Lesson from the INS Vikrant: It
remains in whispers, but the
Indian establishment was
staggered when it heard the USS
Enterprise was entering the Bay
of Bengal during the 1971 war.
INS Vikrant had two planes on
standby to launch kamikaze
attacks.
• Even though the INS Vishal (as
and when built) might be the
biggest A/C in built in the east, it
will still be dwarfed by the US
supercarriers.
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/114841859221073896/

20. 80–90 Sukhoi PAK FA, Mikoyan MiG-
29K, Kamov Ka-27, Mikoyan Skat
Supercarrier Shtorm
Keel laid In design
Launched NA
Commissioning ?
Class Gerald R. Ford
Displacement 90-100,000 t
Speed 30 knots
Flight Deck 330 m
Naviation

21. Should India buy the Shtorm?
• There are reports that Russia has offered to sell India the Shtorm
• PROs:
• The Russian shipbuilding industry is the one that brought the current flagship carrier, INS Vikramaditya to 21st
century standards.
• Moscow plays a role in developing the INS Vikrant.
• Moscow allows technology transfers without restrictive end-user conditions
• Existing MiG-29K and future Sukhoi PAK-FA (being codeveloped by India & Russia) will integrate easily with the ship
• CONs
• Russia has never built a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier whereas the US operates 11 such vessels
• long-running saga of the INS Vikramaditya refit: are the Russians reliable?
• the supply of spares has long been an issue with Russian armaments
http://in.rbth.com/economics/defence/2016/08/10/russian-storm-rising-building-indias-supersized-carrier_619685

22. Lessons from Rajendra Chola
• Building on Rajaraja’s territorial conquests, he built a maritime empire
across the Kalinga Sea
• He took control only of the major trading ports in Burma, Siam and the
Malay Archipelago, and didn’t bother with invading the hinterland
• He established a second capital at Nakkavaram (Nicobar), from where he
could control the sea routes
• He not only built up an armed navy, but also a merchant marine that
ensured the revenues came to him rather than anyone else

23. Lessons from Alfonso de Albuquerque
• He invested in a coastal empire rather than a territorial one (Cosmic resonance?)
• The battle of Diu had established Portuguese supremacy over the Arabian Sea;
Albuquerque built on that
• His command of Diu and Daman shrivelled the space for the Mughal Navy; its admiral
saw it better to build his own state (Janjira) than take on the Portuguese
• Portuguese mastery of deep draught vessels restricted traditional Indian shallow-
draught fighting boats like galbats to the coastline
• Sadly, the Portuguese failed to build up on his vision, and lost their empire to the Dutch
and the English on the east coast, and the Marathas in the Konkan

24. Lessons from Shivaji
• Shivajiraje Bhosale was an SEI long before the term was invented
• Yet as he rose to kingship, he did not underestimate the power of an agile, adaptive navy
• He learned his lessons from the Siddis of Janjira that a marine bolthole was not be scoffed at
• His ensuing chain of maritime forts ensured that the Portuguese in Goa, or the Dutch ascendant
in the Malabar could not establish supremacy over the Konkan coast
• Were he alive today, surely he would have invested in both supercarriers as well as drone war
• But his biggest lesson: invest in people

25. Three-point agenda
• We need a dedicated naval capital
• We must master all kinds of ships, from supercarriers to 1-man units
• We need a string of bases across the Indian Ocean, not just within our
territorial waters

26. जलमेव यस्य बलमेव तस्य
RIP INS Viraat 12 May 1987 - 6 March 2017