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c h a p t e r 12 
................................................................................................................ 
credit value 
adjustment in the 
extended structural 
default model 
................................................................................................................ 
alexander lipton and artur sepp 
1 Introduction 
................................................................................................................................................ 
1.1 Motivation 
In view of the recent turbulence in the credit markets and given a huge outstanding 
notional amount of credit derivatives, counterparty risk has become a critical issue for 
the financial industry as a whole. According to the most recent survey conveyed by 
the International Swap Dealers Association (see <www.isda.org>), the outstanding 
notional amount of credit default swaps is $38.6 trillion as of 31 December 2008 (it 
has decreased from $62.2 trillion as of 31, December 2007). By way of comparison, 
the outstanding notional amount of interest rate derivatives was $403.1 trillion, while 
the outstanding notional amount of equity derivatives was $8.7 trillion. The biggest 
bankruptcy in US history filed by one of the major derivatives dealers, Lehman 
Brothers Holdings Inc., in September of 2008 makes counterparty risk estimation and 
management vital to the financial system at large and all the participating financial 
institutions. 
The key objective of this chapter is to develop a methodology for valuing the coun-terparty 
credit risk inherent in credit default swaps (CDSs). For the protection buyer 
(PB), a CDS contract provides protection against a possible default of the reference 
name (RN) in exchange for periodic payments to the protection seller (PS) whose 
magnitude is determined by the so-called CDS spread. When a PB buys a CDS from 
a risky PS they have to cope with two types of risk: (a) market risk which comes
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credit value adjustment 407 
directly from changes in the mark-to-market (MTM) value of the CDS due to credit 
spread and interest rate changes; (b) credit risk which comes from the fact that PS 
may be unable to honour their obligation to cover losses stemming from the default 
of the corresponding RN. During the life of a CDS contract, a realized loss due to the 
counterparty exposure arises when PS defaults before RN and, provided that MTM 
of the CDS is positive, the counterparty pays only a fraction of the MTM value of the 
existing CDS contract (ifMTMof the CDS is negative to PB, this CDS can be unwound 
at its market price). 
Since PB realizes positive MTM gains when the credit quality of RN deteriorates 
(since the probability of receiving protection increases), their realized loss due to PS 
default is especially big if the credit quality of RN and PS deteriorate simultaneously 
but PS defaults first. We define the credit value adjustment (CVA), or the counterparty 
charge (CC), as the maximal expected loss on a short position (protection bought) in 
a CDS contract. 
In order to describe CVA in quantitative rather than qualitative terms, in this 
chapter we build a multi-dimensional structural default model. Below we concentrate 
on its two-dimensional (2D) version and show that the evaluation of CVA is equivalent 
to pricing a 2D down-and-in digital option with the down barrier being triggered 
when the value of the PS’s assets crosses their default barrier and the option rebate 
being determined by the value of the RN’s assets at the barrier crossing time. We also 
briefly discuss the complementary problem of determining CVA for a long position 
(protection sold) in a CDS contract. 
Traditionally, the par CDS spread at inception is set in such a way that the MTM 
value of the contract is zero.1 Thus, the option underlying CVA is at-the-money, so 
that its value is highly sensitive to the volatility of the RN’s CDS spread, while the 
barrier triggering event is highly sensitive to the volatility of the PS’s asset value. In 
addition to that, the option value is sensitive to the correlation between RN and PS. 
This observation indicates that for dealing with counterparty risk we need to model 
the correlation between default times of RN and PS as well as CDS spread volatilities 
for both of them. It turns out that our structural model is very well suited to accomplish 
this highly non-trivial task. 
1.2 Literature overview 
Merton developed the original version of the so-called structural default model (Mer-ton 
1974). He postulated that the firm’s value V is driven by a lognormal diffusion 
and that the firm, which borrowed a zero-coupon bond with face value N and matu-rity 
T, defaults at time T if the value of the firm V is less than the bond’s face 
1 Subsequent to the so-called ‘big bang’ which occurred in 2009, CDS contracts frequently trade on 
an up-front basis with fixed coupon.
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408 a. lipton & a. sepp 
value N. Following this ioneering insight, many authors proposed various extensions 
of the basic model (Black and Cox 1976; Kim and Ramaswamy, and Sundaresan 
1993; Nielsen, and Saa-Requejo, and Santa-Clara 1993; Leland 1994; Longstaff and 
Schwartz 1995; Leland and Toft 1996; Albanese and Chen 2005) among others. They 
considered more complicated forms of debt and assumed that the default event may 
be triggered continuously up to the debt maturity. More recent research has been 
concentrated on extending the model in order to be able to generate the high short-term 
CDS spreads typically observed in the market. It has been shown that the latter 
task can be achieved either by making default barriers curvilinear (Hyer et al. 1998; 
Hull and White 2001; Avellaneda and Zhou 2001), or by making default barriers 
stochastic (Finger et al. 2002), or by incorporating jumps into the firm’s value dynamics 
(Zhou 2001a; Hilberink and Rogers 2002; Lipton 2002b; Lipton, Song, and Lee 2007; 
Sepp 2004, 2006; Cariboni and Schoutens 2007; Feng and Linetsky 2008). 
Multi-dimensional extensions of the structural model have been studied by several 
researchers (Zhou 2001b; Hull and White 2001;Haworth 2006;Haworth Reisinger, and 
Shaw 2006; Valu˘zis 2008), who considered bivariate correlated log-normal dynamics 
for two firms and derived analytical formulas for their joint survival probability; 
Li (2000), who introduced the Gaussian copula description of correlated default times 
in multi-dimensional structural models; Kiesel and Scherer (2007), who studied a 
multi-dimensional structural model and proposed a mixture of semi-analytical and 
Monte Carlo (MC) methods for model calibration and pricing. 
While we build a general multi-dimensional structural model, our specific efforts 
are aimed at a quantitative estimation of the counterparty risk. Relevant work on the 
counterparty risk includes, among others, Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), who developed 
the so called reduced-form default model and analysed the counterparty risk in this 
framework; Hull and White (2001), Blanchet-Scalliet and Patras (2008), who modelled 
the correlation between RN and the counterparty by considering their bivariate corre-lated 
lognormal dynamics; Turnbull (2005), Pugachevsky (2006), who derived model-free 
upper and lower bounds for the counterparty exposure; Jarrow and Yu (2001), 
Leung and Kwok (2005) who studied counterparty risk in the reduced-form setting; 
Pykhtin and Zhu (2006), Misirpashaev 2008), who applied the Gaussian copula for-malism 
to study counterparty effects; Brigo and Chourdakis (2008), who considered 
correlated dynamics of the credit spreads, etc. 
Our approach requires the solution of partial integro-differential equations (PIDE) 
with a non-local integral term. The analysis of solution methods based on the Fast 
Fourier Transform (FFT) can be found in Broadie-Broadie and Yamamoto (2003), 
Jackson and Jaimungal, and Surkov (2007), Boyarchenko and Levendorski (2008), 
Fang and Oosterlee (2008), Feng and Linetsky (2008), and Lord et al. (2008). 
The treatment via finite-difference (FD) methods can be found in Andersen and 
Andreasen (2000), Lipton (2003), d’Halluin, Forsyth, and Vetzal (2005), Cont and 
Voltchkova (2005), Carr and Mayo (2007), Lipton, Song, and Lee (2007), Toiva-nen 
(2008), and Clift and Forsyth (2008).
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credit value adjustment 409 
1.3 Contribution 
In this chapter, we develop a novel variant of the one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional 
(2D), and multi-dimensional structural default model the assumption 
that firms’ values are driven by correlated additive processes. (Recall that an additive 
process is a jump-diffusion process with time-inhomogeneous increments.) In order 
to calibrate the 1D version of our structural model to the CDS spread curve observed in 
themarket, we introduce jumps with piecewise constant intensity. We correlate jumps 
of different firms via aMarshall-Olkin inspiredmechanism (Marshall and Olkin 1967). 
This model was presented for the first time by Lipton and Sepp (2009). 
In this chapter, we develop robust FFT- and FD-based methods for model cali-bration 
via forward induction and for credit derivatives pricing via backward induc-tion 
in one and two dimensions. While the FFT-based solution methods are easy to 
implement, they require uniform grids and a large number of discretization steps. 
At the same time, FD-based methods, while more complex, tend to provide greater 
flexibility and stability. As part of our FD scheme development, we obtain new explicit 
recursion formulas for the evaluation of the 2D convolution term for discrete and 
exponential jumps. In addition, we present a closed-form formula for the joint survival 
probability of two firms driven by correlated lognormal bivariate diffusion processes 
by using the method of images, thus complementing results obtained byHe, Keirstead, 
and Rebholz, (1998), Lipton (2001), and Zhou (2001b) via the classical eigenfunction 
expansionmethod. As always, themethod of images works well for shorter times, while 
the method of eigenfunction expansion works well for longer times. 
We use the above results to develop an innovative approach to the estimation of 
CVA for CDSs. Our approach is dynamic in nature and takes into account both 
the correlation between RN and PS (or PB) and the CDS spread volatilities. The 
approaches proposed by Leung and Kwok (2005), Pykhtin and Zhu (2006), andMisir-pashaev 
(2008) do not account for spread volatility and, as a result, may underesti-mate 
CVA. Blanchet-Patras consider a conceptually similar approach; however, their 
analytical implementation is restricted to lognormal bivariate dynamics with constant 
volatilities, which makes it impossible to fit the term structure of the CDS spreads 
and CDS option volatilities implied by the market (Blanchet-Scalliet and Patras 2008). 
Accordingly, the corresponding CVA valuation is biased. In contrast, our model can 
be fitted to an arbitrary term structure of CDS spreads and market prices of CDS and 
equity options. The approach by Hull and White (2001) uses MC simulations of the 
correlated lognormal bivariate diffusions. In contrast, our approach assumes jump-diffusion 
dynamics, potentially more realistic for default modelling, and uses robust 
semi-analytical and numerical methods for model calibration and CVA valuation. 
This chapter is organized as follows. In section 2 we introduce the structural default 
model in one, two, and multi-dimensions. In section 3 we formulate the generic 
pricing problem in one, two and multi-dimensions. In section 4 we consider the 
pricing problem for CDSs, CDS options (CDSOs), first-to-default swaps (FTDSs), 
and the valuation problem for CVA. In section 5 we develop analytical, asymptotic,
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410 a. lipton & a. sepp 
and numerical methods for solving the 1D pricing problem. In particular, we describe 
MC, FFT, and FD methods for solving the calibration problem via forward induction 
and the pricing problem via backward induction. In section 6 we present analytical 
and numerical methods for solving the 2D pricing problem, including FFT and FD 
methods. In section 7 we provide an illustration of our findings by showing how to 
calculate CVA for a CDS on Morgan Stanley (MS) sold by JP Morgan (JPM) and a 
CDS on JPM sold by MS.We formulate brief conclusions in section 8. 
2 Structural model and default event 
................................................................................................................................................ 
In this section we describe our structural default model in one, two, and multi-dimensions. 
Qt 
2.1 Notation 
Throughout the chapter, we model uncertainty by constructing a probability space 
(Ÿ,F, F,Q) with the filtration F = {F(t), t ≥ 0} and a martingale measure Q. We 
assume that Q is specified by market prices of liquid credit products. The operation 
of expectation under Q given information set F(t) at time t is denoted by E[·]. The 
imaginary unit is denoted by i, i = 
√ 
−1. 
The instantaneous risk-free interest rate r (t) is assumed to be deterministic; the 
corresponding discount factor, D(t, T) is given by: 
D(t, T) = exp 
 
− 
 
T 
t 
r (t)dt 
 
(1) 
It is applied at valuation time t for cash flows generated at time T, 0 ≤ t ≤ T  ∞. 
The indicator function of an event ˆ is denoted by 1ˆ: 
1ˆ = 
 
1 ifˆ is true 
0 ifˆ is false (2) 
The Heaviside step function is denoted by H(x), 
H(x) = 1{x≥0} (3) 
the Dirac delta function is denoted by δ(x); the Kronecker delta function is denoted by 
δn,n0 .We also use the following notation 
{x} 
+ = max{x, 0} (4) 
We denote the normal probability density function (PDF) by n (x); and the cumu-lative 
normal probability function by N(x); besides, we frequently use the function 
P (a, b) defined as follows:
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credit value adjustment 411 
P(a, b) = exp 
 
ab + b2/2 
 
N(a + b) (5) 
2.2 One-dimensional case 
2.2.1 Asset value dynamics 
We denote the firm’s asset value by a(t). We assume that a(t) is driven by a 1D jump-diffusion 
under Q: 
da(t) = (r (t) − Ê(t) − Î(t)Í)a(t)dt + Û(t)a(t)dW(t) + (e j − 1)dN(t) (6) 
where Ê(t) is the deterministic dividend rate on the firm’s assets, W(t) is a standard 
Brownian motion, Û(t) is the deterministic volatility, N(t) is a Poisson process inde-pendent 
of W(t), Î(t) is its intensity, j is the jump amplitude, which is a random 
variable with PDF ( j ); and Í is the jump compensator: 
Í = 
 
0 
−∞ 
e j( j )d j −1 (7) 
To reduce the number of free parameters, we concentrate on one-parametric PDFs 
with negative jumps which may result in random crossings of the default barrier. We 
consider either discrete negative jumps (DNJs) of size −Ì, Ì  0, with 
( j) = δ( j + Ì), Í = e−Ì −1 (8) 
or exponential negative jumps (ENJs) with mean size 1 
Ì , Ì  0, with: 
( j) = ÌeÌj , j  0, Í = 
Ì 
Ì + 1 
− 1 = − 1 
Ì + 1 
(9) 
In our experience, for 1Dmarginal dynamics the choice of the jump size distribution 
has no impact on the model calibration to CDS spreads and CDS option volatilities, 
however for the joint correlated dynamics this choice becomes very important, as we 
will demonstrate shortly. 
2.2.2 Default boundary 
The cornerstone assumption of a structural default model is that the firm defaults 
when its value crosses a deterministic or, more generally, random default boundary. 
The default boundary can be specified either endogenously or exogenously. 
The endogenous approach was originated by Black and Cox (1976) who used it to 
study the optimal capital structure of a firm. Under a fairly strict assumption that the 
firm’s liabilities can only be financed by issuing new equity, the equity holders have the 
right to push the firm into default by stopping issuing new equity to cover the interest 
payments to bondholders and, instead, turning the firm over to the bondholders. Black 
and Cox (1976) found the critical level for the firm’s value, below which it is not optimal 
for equity holders to sell any more equity. Equity holders should determine the critical 
value or the default barrier by maximizing the value of the equity and, respectively,
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412 a. lipton  a. sepp 
minimizing the value of outstanding bonds. Thus, the optimal debt-to-equity ratio and 
the endogenous default barrier are decision variables in this approach. A nice review of 
the Black-Cox approach and its extensions is given by Bielecki and Rutkowski (2002), 
and Uhrig-Homburg (2002). However, in our view, the endogenous approach is not 
realistic given the complicated equity-liability structure of large firms and the actual 
relationships between the firm’s management and its equity and debtholders. For 
example, in July 2009 the bail-out of a commercial lender CIT was carried out by 
debtholders, who proposed debt restructuring, rather than by equity holders, who had 
no negotiating power. 
In the exogenous approach, the default boundary is one of the model parameters. 
The default barrier is typically specified as a fraction of the debt per share estimated 
by the recovery ratio of firms with similar characteristics. While still not very realistic, 
this approach is more intuitive and practical (see, for instance, Kim and Ramaswamy, 
and Sundaresan 1993; Nielsen, and Saa-Requejo, and Santa-Clara 1993; Longstaff and 
Schwartz 1995; etc.). 
In our approach, similarly to Lipton (2002b); and Stamicar and Finger (2005), we 
assume that the default barrier of the firm is a deterministic function of time given by 
l (t) = E (t)l (0) (10) 
where E (t) is the deterministic growth factor: 
E (t) = exp 
 
t 
0 
(r (t) − Ê(t))dt 
 
(11) 
and l (0) is defined by l (0) = RL(0), where R is an average recovery of the firm’s 
liabilities and L(0) is its total debt per share. We find L(0) from the balance sheet 
as the ratio of the firm’s total liability to the total common shares outstanding; R is 
found from CDS quotes, typically, it is assumed that R = 0.4. 
2.2.3 Default triggering event 
The key variable of the model is the random default time which we denote by Ù. We 
assume that Ù is an F-adapted stopping time, Ù ∈ (0,∞]. In general, the default event 
can be triggered in three ways. 
First, when the firm’s value is monitored only at the debt’s maturity time T, then 
the default time is defined by: 
Ù = 
 
T, a(T) ≤ l (T) 
∞, a(T)  l (T) (12) 
This is the case of terminal default monitoring (TDM) which we do not use below. 
Second, if the firm’s value is monitored at fixed points in time, {tdm 
}m=1,. . .,M, 
0  td 
1  . . .  tdM 
≤ T, then the default event can only occur at some time tdm 
. The 
corresponding default time is specified by:
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credit value adjustment 413 
Ù = min{tdm 
: a(tdm 
) ≤ l (tdm 
)}, min{} = ∞ (13) 
This is the case of discrete default monitoring (DDM). 
Third, if the firm’s value is monitored at all times 0  t ≤ T, then the default 
event can occur at any time between the current time t and the maturity time T. The 
corresponding default time is specified by: 
Ù = inf{t, 0 ≤ t ≤ T : a(t) ≤ l (t)}, inf{} = ∞ (14) 
This is the case of continuous default monitoring (CDM). 
The TDM assumption is hard to justify and apply for realistic debt structures. 
The DDM assumption is reasonably realistic. Under this assumption, efficient 
quasi-analytical methods can be applied in one and two dimensions under the log-normal 
dynamics (Hull and White 2001) and in one dimension under jump-diffusion 
dynamics (Lipton 2003; Lipton, Song, and Lee 2007; Feng and Linetsky 2008). Numer-ical 
PIDE methods for the problem with DDM tend to have slower convergence rates 
than those for the problem with CDM, because the solution is not smooth at default 
monitoring times in the vicinity of the default barrier. However, MC-based methods 
can be applied in the case of DDM in a robust way, because the firm’s asset values need 
to be simulated only at default monitoring dates. Importantly, there is no conceptual 
difficulty in applying MC simulations for the multi-dimensional model. 
In the case of CDM closed-form solutions are available for the survival probability 
in one dimension (see e.g. Leland 1994; Leland and Toft 1996) and two dimensions 
(Zhou 2001b) for lognormal diffusions; and in one dimension for jump-diffusions 
with negative jumps (see e.g. Zhou 2001a; Hilberink and Rogers 2002; Lipton 2002b; 
Sepp 2004, 2006). In the case of CDM, numerical FD methods in one and two 
dimensions tend to have a better rate of convergence in space and time than in the 
case of DDM. However, a serious disadvantage of the CDM assumption is that the 
corresponding MC implementation is complex and slow because continuous barriers 
are difficult to deal with, especially in the multi-dimensional case. 
Accordingly, CDM is useful for small-scale problems which can be solved without 
MC methods, while DDM is better suited for large-scale problems, such that semi-analytical 
FFT or PIDE-based methods can be used to calibrate the model to marginal 
dynamics of individual firms andMC techniques can be used to solve the pricing prob-lem 
for several firms. In our experience, we have not observed noticeable differences 
between DDM and CDM settings, provided that the model is calibrated appropriately. 
We note in passing that, as reported by Davidson (2008), the industry practice is to use 
about 100 time steps with at least 60 steps in the first year in MC simulations of deriv-atives 
positions to estimate the counterparty exposure. This implies weekly default 
monitoring frequency in the first year and quarterly monitoring in the following years. 
2.2.4 Asset value, equity, and equity options 
We introduce the log coordinate x(t): 
x(t) = ln 
 
a(t) 
l (t) 
 
(15)
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414 a. lipton  a. sepp 
and represent the asset value as follows: 
a(t) = E (t)l (0)e x(t) = l (t) e x(t) (16) 
where x(t) is driven by the following dynamics under Q: 
dx(t) = Ï(t)dt + Û(t)dW(t) + j dN(t) (17) 
x(0) = ln 
 
a(0) 
l (0) 
 
≡ Ó, Ó  0 
Ï(t) = −1 
2 
Û2(t) − Î(t)Í 
We observe that, under this formulation of the firm value process, the default time 
is specified by: 
Ù = min{t : x(t) ≤ 0} (18) 
triggered either discretely or continuously. Accordingly, the default event is deter-mined 
only by the dynamics of the stochastic driver x(t). 
We note that the shifted process y(t) = x(t) − Ó is an additive process with respect 
to the filtration F which is characterized by the following conditions: y(t) is adapted 
to F(t), increments of y(t) are independent of F(t), y(t) is continuous in probability, 
and y(t) starts from the origin, Sato (1999). The main difference between an additive 
process and a Levy process is that the distribution of increments in the former process 
is time dependent. 
Without loss of generality, we assume that volatility Û(t) and jump intensity Î(t) are 
piecewise constant functions of time changing at times {tc 
k 
}, k = 1, . . . , k: 
Û(t) = 
	k 
k=1 
Û(k)1{tc 
k−1t≤tc 
k 
} + Û(k)1{ttc 
k 
} (19) 
Î(t) = 
	k 
k=1 
Î(k)1{tc 
k−1t≤tc 
k 
} + Î(k)1{ttc 
k 
} 
where Û(k) defines the volatility and Î(k) defines the intensity at time periods (tc 
k−1, tc 
k ] 
0 = 0, k = 1, . . . , k. In the case of DDM we assume that {tc 
with tc 
k 
} is a subset of {tdm 
}, so 
that parameters do not jump between observation dates. 
We consider the firm’s equity share price, which is denoted by s (t), and, following 
Stamicar and Finger (2005), assume that the value of s (t) is given by: 
s (t) = 
 
a(t) − l (t) = E (t)l (0) 

 
e x(t) − 1 
 
= l (t) 

 
e x(t) − 1 
 
, {t  Ù} 
0, {t ≥ Ù} (20) 
At time t = 0, s (0) is specified by themarket price of the equity share. Accordingly, the 
initial value of the firm’s assets is given by: 
a(0) = s (0) + l (0) (21)
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credit value adjustment 415 
It is important to note that Û(t) is the volatility of the firm’s assets. The volatility of 
the equity, Ûeq(t), is approximately related to Û(t) by: 
Ûeq(t) = 
 
1 + 
l (t) 
s (t) 
 
Û(t) (22) 
As a result, for fixed Û(t) the equity volatility increases as the spot price s (t) decreases 
creating the leverage effect typically observed in the equity market. The model with 
equity volatility of the type (22) is also know as the displaced diffusion model, which 
was introduced by Rubinstein (1983). 
2.3 Two-dimensional case 
To deal with the counterparty risk problem, we need to model the correlated dynamics 
of two ormore credit entities. We consider two firms and assume that their asset values 
are driven by the following stochascic differential equations(SDEs): 

 
 
dai (t) = (r (t) − Êi (t) − Íi Îi (t))ai (t) dt + Ûi (t) ai (t)dWi (t) + 
e ji −1 
ai (t)dNi (t) 
(23) 
where 
Íi = 
 
0 
−∞ 
e jii ( ji )d ji −1 (24) 
jump amplitudes ji has the same PDF i ( ji ) as in the marginal dynamics, jump 
intensities Îi (t) are equal to the marginal intensities calibrated to single-name CDSs, 
volatility parameters Ûi (t) are equal to those in the marginal dynamics, i = 1, 2. The 
corresponding default boundaries have the form: 
li (t) = Ei (t) li (0) (25) 
where 
Ei (t) = exp 
 
t 
0 
(r (t) − Êi (t))dt 
 
(26) 
In log coordinates with 
xi (t) = ln 
 
ai (t) 
li (t) 
 
(27) 
we obtain: 
dxi (t) = Ïi (t)dt + Ûi (t)dWi (t) + jidNi (t) (28) 
xi (0) = ln 
 
ai (0) 
li (0) 
 
≡ Ói , Ói  0 
Ïi (t) = −1 
2 
Û2 
i (t) − Íi Îi (t)
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416 a. lipton  a. sepp 
The default time of the i -th firm, Ùi , is defined by 
Ùi = min{t : xi (t) ≤ 0} (29) 
Correlation between the firms is introduced in two ways. First, standard Brownian 
motions W1(t) and W2(t) are correlated with correlation Ò. Second, Poisson processes 
N1(t), N2(t) are represented as follows: 
Ni (t) = N{i } (t) + N{1,2} (t) (30) 
where N{1,2} (t) is the systemic process with the intensity: 
Î{1,2}(t) = max{Ò, 0} min{Î1(t), Î2(t)} (31) 
while N{i }(t) are idiosyncratic processes with the intensities Î{i }(t), specified by: 
Î{1}(t) = Î1(t) − Î{1,2}(t), Î{2}(t) = Î2(t) − Î{1,2}(t) (32) 
This choice, which is Marshall-Olkin (1967) inspired, guarantees that marginal distri-butions 
are preserved, while sufficiently strong correlations are introduced naturally. 
Expressing the correlation structure in terms of one parameter Ò has an advantage 
for model calibration. After the calibration to marginal dynamics is completed for 
each firm, and the set of firm’s volatilities, jump sizes, and intensities is obtained, we 
estimate the parameter Ò by fitting themodel spread of a FTDS to a givenmarket quote. 
It is clear that the default time correlations are closely connected to the instanta-neous 
correlations of the firms’ values. For the bivariate dynamics in question, we 
calculate the instantaneous correlations between the drivers x1(t) and x2(t) as follows: 
ÒDNJ 
12 =
ÒÛ1Û2 + Î{
1,2}Ì1Ì2 
Û+ Î1ÌÛ22 
21 
21 
+ Î2Ì22 
, ÒENJ 
12 =
ÒÛ1Û2 + Î{
1,2}/(Ì1Ì2) 
Û+ 2Î1/ÌÛ22 
21 21 
+ 2Î2/Ì22 
(33) 
where we suppress the time variable. Here ÒDNJ 
12 and ÒENJ 
12 are correlations for DNJs and 
ENJs, respectively. 
For large systemic intensities Î{1,2}, we see that ÒDNJ 
12 
∼ 1, while ÒENJ 
12 
∼ 12 
. Thus, for 
ENJs correlations tend to be smaller than for DNJs. In our experiments with different 
firms, we have computed implied Gaussian copula correlations from model spreads 
of FTDS referencing different credit entities and found that, typically, the maximal 
implied Gaussian correlation that can be achieved is about 90% for DNJs and about 
50% for ENJs (in both casesmodel parameters were calibrated to match the term struc-ture 
of CDS spreads and CDS option volatilities). Thus, the ENJs assumption is not 
appropriate for modelling the joint dynamics of strongly correlated firms belonging to 
one industry, such as, for example, financial companies. 
2.4 Multi-dimensional case 
Now we consider N firms and assume that their asset values are driven by the same 
equations as before, but with the index i running from 1 to N, i = 1, . . . , N.
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credit value adjustment 417 
We correlate diffusions in the usual way and assume that: 
dWi (t)dWj (t) = Òi j (t) dt (34) 
We correlate jumps following the Marshall-Olkin (1967) idea. Let –(N) be the set of 
all subsets of N names except for the empty subset {∅}, and  be its typical member. 
With every  we associate a Poisson process N (t) with intensity Î (t), and represent 
Ni (t) as follows: 
Ni (t) = 
	 
∈–(N) 
1{i∈}N (t) (35) 
Îi (t) = 
	 
∈–(N) 
1{i∈}Î (t) 
Thus, we assume that there are both systemic and idiosyncratic jump sources. By 
analogy, we can introduce systemic and idiosyncratic factors for the Brownian motion 
dynamics. 
3 General pricing problem 
................................................................................................................................................ 
In this section we formulate the generic pricing problem in 1D, 2D, and multi-dimensions. 
3.1 One-dimensional problem 
For DDM, the value function V(t, x) solves the following problem on the entire axis 
x ∈ R1: 
Vt (t, x) + L(x)V(t, x) − r (t) V(t, x) = 0 (36) 
supplied with the natural far-field boundary conditions 
V(t, x) → 
x→±∞ 
ı±∞(t, x) (37) 
Here tdm 
−1  t  tdm 
. At t = tdm, the value function undergoes a transformation 
Vm−(x) = – 
 
Vm+(x) 
 
(38) 
dm 
dm 
dm 
where –{.} is the transformation operator, which depends on the specifics of the 
contract under consideration, and Vm± (x) = V(t±, x). Here t± ± = tε. Finally, 
at t = T 
V (T, x) = v (x) (39)
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418 a. lipton  a. sepp 
the terminal payoff function v(x) is contract specific. Here L(x) is the infinitesimal 
operator of process x(t) under dynamics (17): 
L(x) = D(x) + Î(t)J (x) (40) 
D(x) is a differential operator: 
D(x)V(x) = 
1 
2 
Û2(t)Vxx (x) + Ï(t)Vx (x) − Î (t) V (x) (41) 
and J (x) is a jump operator: 
J (x)V(x) = 
 
0 
−∞ 
V(x + j )( j )d j (42) 
For CDM, we assume that the value of the contract is determined by the terminal 
payoff function v(x), the cash flow function c (t, x), the rebate function z(t, x) specify-ing 
the payoff following the default event (we note that the rebate function may depend 
on the residual value of the firm), and the far-field boundary condition. The backward 
equation for the value function V(t, x) is formulated differently on the positive semi-axis 
x ∈ R1 
+ and negative semi-axis R1 
−: 
Vt (t, x) + L(x)V(t, x) − r (t) V(t, x) = c (t, x), x ∈ R1 
+ 
V(t, x) = z(t, x), x ∈ R1 
− 
(43) 
This equation is supplied with the usual terminal condition on R1: 
V(T, x) = v(x) (44) 
where J (x) is a jump operator which is defined as follows: 
J (x)V(x) = 
 
0 
−∞ 
V(x + j )( j )d j (45) 
= 
 
0 
−x 
V(x + j )( j )d j + 
 −x 
−∞ 
z(x + j )( j )d j 
In particular, 
J (x)V(x) = 
 
V − − 
 
(x Ì) 1{Ì≤x} + z (x Ì) 1{Ìx}, DNJs 
Ì 
0− 
x V (x + j ) eÌj d j + Ì 

 −x 
−∞ z (x + j ) eÌj d j, ENJs 
(46) 
For ENJs J (x)V(x) also can be written as 
J (x)V(x) = Ì 
 
x 
0 
V (y) eÌ(y−x)dy + Ì 
 
0 
−∞ 
z (y) eÌ(y−x)dy (47) 
In principle, for both DDM and CDM, the computational domain for x is R1. 
However, for CDM, we can restrict ourselves to the positive semi-axis R1 
+. We can 
represent the integral term in problem eq. (46) as follows: 
J (x)V(x) ≡  J (x)V(x) + Z(x)(x) (48)
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credit value adjustment 419 
where  J (x), Z(x)(x) are defined by: 
 J (x)V(x) = 
 
0 
−x 
V(x + j )( j )d j (49) 
Z(x)(x) = 
 −x 
−∞ 
z(x + j )( j )d j (50) 
so that Z(x)(x) is the deterministic function depending on the contract rebate function 
z(x). As a result, by subtracting Z(x) from rhs of eq. (43), we can formulate the pricing 
equation on the positive semi-axis R1 
+ as follows: 
Vt (t, x) + L(x)V(t, x) − r (t) V(t, x) = ˆc (t, x) (51) 
It is supplied with the boundary conditions at x = 0, x →∞: 
V(t, 0) = z(t, 0), V(t, x) → 
x→∞ 
ı∞(t, x) (52) 
and the terminal condition for x ∈ R1 
+: 
V(T, x) = v(x) (53) 
Here 
L(x) = D(x) + Î(t)  J (x) (54) 
ˆc (t, x) = c (t, x) − Î (t) Z(x) (t, x) (55) 
We introduce the Green’s function denoted by G(t, x, T, X), representing the prob-ability 
density of x(T) = X given x(t) = x and conditional on no default between t and 
T. For DDM the valuation problem for G can be formulated as follows: 
GT (t, x, T, X) − L(X)†G(t, x, T, X) = 0 (56) 
G(t, x, T, X) → 
X→±∞0 (57) 
G (t, x, tm+, X) = G (t, x, tm−, X) 1{X0} (58) 
G(t, x, t, X) = δ(X − x) (59) 
where L(x)† being the infinitesimal operator adjoint to L(x): 
L(x)† = D(x)† + Î(t)J (x)† (60) 
D(x)† is the differential operator: 
D(x)†g (x) = 
1 
2 
Û2(t)gxx (x) − Ï(t)gx (x) − Î (t) g (x) (61)
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420 a. lipton  a. sepp 
and J (x)† is the jump operator: 
J (x)†g (x) = 
 
0 
−∞ 
g (x − j )( j )d j (62) 
For CDM, the PIDE for G is defined on R1 
+ and the boundary conditions are applied 
continuously: 
GT (t, x, T, X) − L(X)†G(t, x, T, X) = 0 (63) 
G(t, x, T, 0) = 0, G(t, x, T, X) → 
X→∞0 (64) 
G(t, x, t, X) = δ(X − x) (65) 
3.2 Two-dimensional problem 
We assume that the specifics of the contract are encapsulated by the terminal payoff 
function v(x1, x2), the cash flow function c (t, x1, x2), the rebate functions z·(t, x1, x2), 
· = (−, +) , (−,−) , (+,−), the default-boundary functions v0,i (t, x3−i ), i = 1, 2, and 
the far-field functions v±∞,i (t, x1, x2) specifying the conditions for large values of xi . 
We denote the value function of this contract by V(t, x1, x2). 
For DDM, the pricing equation defined in the entire plane R2 can be written as 
follows: 
Vt (t, x1, x2) + L(x)V(t, x1, x2) − r (t) V(t, x1, x2) = 0 (66) 
As before, it is supplied with the far-field conditions 
V(t, x1, x2) → 
xi→±∞ 
ı±∞,i (t, x1, x2), i = 1,2 (67) 
At times tdm 
the value function is transformed according to the rule 
Vm−(x1, x2) = – 
 
Vm+(x1, x2) 
 
(68) 
The terminal condition is 
V(T, x1, x2) = v(x1, x2) (69) 
Here L(x1,x2) is the infinitesimal backward operator corresponding to the bivariate 
dynamics (28): 
L(x1,x2) = D(x1) + D(x2) + C(x1,x2) (70) 
+Î{1}(t)J (x1) + Î{2}(t)J (x2) + Î{1,2}(t)J (x1,x2) 
Here, D(x1) and D(x2) are the differential operators in x1 and x2 directions defined by 
eq. (41) with Î (t) = Î{i } (t); J (x1) and J (x2) are the 1D orthogonal integral operators in 
x1 and x2 directions defined by eq. (45) with appropriate model parameters; C(x1,x2) is 
the correlation operator:
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credit value adjustment 421 
C(x1,x2)V(x1, x2) ≡ ÒÛ1(t)Û2(t)Vx1x2 (x1, x2) − Î{1,2} (t) V (x1, x2) (71) 
and J (x1,x2) is the cross integral operator defined as follows: 
J (x1,x2)V(x1, x2) ≡ 
 
0 
−∞ 
 
0 
−∞ 
V(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 (72) 
For CDM, V(t, x1, x2) solves the following problem in the positive quadrant R2 
+,+: 
Vt (t, x1, x2) + L(x1,x2)V(t, x1, x2) − r (t) V(t, x1, x2) = ˆc (t, x1, x2) (73) 
V(t, 0, x2) = v0,1(t, x2), V(t, x1, x2) → 
x1→∞ 
v∞,1(t, x1,x2) (74) 
V(t, x1, 0) = v0,2(t, x1), V(t, x1, x2) → 
x2→∞ 
v∞,2(t, x1, x2) 
V(T, x1, x2) = v(x1, x2) (75) 
where L(x1,x2) is the infinitesimal backward operator defined by: 
L(x1,x2) = D(x1) + D(x2) + C(x1,x2) (76) 
+Î{1}(t)  J (x1) + Î{2}(t)  J (x2) + Î{1,2}(t)  J (x1,x2) 
with 
 J (x1,x2)V(x1, x2) ≡ 
 
0 
−x1 
 
0 
−x2 
V(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 (77) 
The ‘equivalent’ cash flows can be represented as follows: 
ˆc (t, x1, x2) = c (t, x1, x2) − Î{1} (t) Z(x1) (t, x1, x2) − Î{2} (t) Z(x2) (t, x1, x2) (78) 
−Î{1,2} 
 
Z(x1,x2) 
−,+ (t, x1, x2) + Z(x1,x2) 
−,− (t, x1, x2) + Z(x1,x2) 
 
+,− (t, x1, x2) 
where 
Z(x1) (t, x1, x2) = 
 −x1 
−∞ 
z−,+(x1 + j1, x2)1( j1)d j1 (79) 
Z(x2) (t, x1, x2) = 
 −x2 
−∞ 
z+,−(x1, x2 + j2)2( j2)d j2 
Z(x1,x2) 
−,+ (x1, x2) = 
 −x1 
−∞ 
 
0 
−x2 
z−,+(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 
Z(x1,x2) 
−,− (x1, x2) = 
 −x1 
−∞ 
 −x2 
−∞ 
z−,−(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 
Z(x1,x2) 
+,− (x1, x2) = 
 
0 
−x1 
 −x2 
−∞ 
z+,−(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2
978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 422 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 
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422 a. lipton  a. sepp 
For DDM, the corresponding Green’s function G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2), satisfies the 
following problem in the whole plane R2: 
GT (t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) − L(X1,X2)†G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) = 0 (80) 
G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) → 
Xi→±∞0 (81) 
G (t, x1, x2, tm+, X1, X2) = G (t, x1, x2, tm−, X1, X2) 1{X10,X20} (82) 
G(t, x1, x2, t, X1, X2) = δ(X1 − x1)δ(X2 − x2) (83) 
where L(x1,x2)† is the operator adjoint to L(x1,x2): 
L(x1,x2)† = D(x1)† + D(x2)† + C(x1,x2) (84) 
+Î{1}(t)J (x1)† + Î{2}(t)J (x2)† + Î{1,2}(t)J (x1,x2)† 
and 
J (x1,x2)†g (x1, x2) = 
 
0 
−∞ 
 
0 
−∞ 
g (x1 − j1, x2 − j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 (85) 
For CDM, the corresponding Green’s function satisfies the following problem in the 
positive quadrant R2 
+,+: 
GT (t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) − L(X1,X2)†G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) = 0 (86) 
G(t, x1, x2, T, 0, X2) = 0, G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, 0) = 0 (87) 
G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) → 
Xi→∞ 0 
G(t, x1, x2, t, X1, X2) = δ(X1 − x1)δ(X2 − x2) (88) 
3.3 Multi-dimensional problem 
For brevity, we restrict ourselves to CDM. As before, we can formulate a typical pricing 
problem for the value function V (t,
x) in the positive cone RN 
+ as follows: 
Vt (t,
x) + L(
x)V (t,
x) − r (t) V (t,
x) = ˆc (t,
x) (89) 
V 

 
t,
x0,k 
 
= v0,k (t,
y 
k), V (t,
x) → 
xk→∞ 
v∞,k (t,
x) (90) 
V (T,
x) = v (
x) (91) 
where
x,
x0,k ,
y 
k are N and N − 1 dimensional vectors, respectively,
x = (x1, . . . , xk, . . . xN)
x0,k = 
 
x1, . . . ,0k 
, . . . xN
y 
k = (x1, . . . xk−1, xk+1, . . . xN) 
(92)
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credit value adjustment 423 
Here ˆc (t,
x), v0,k (t,
y 
), v∞,k (t,
x), v (
x) are known functions which are contract 
specific. The function ˆc (t,
x) incorporates the terms arising from rebates. The cor-responding 
operator L(
x) can be written in the form 
L(
x) f (
x) = 
1 
2 
	 
i 
Û2 
i ∂2 
i f (
x) + 
	 
i, j, ji 
Òi j ÛiÛj ∂i ∂j f (
x) (93) 
+ 
	 
i 
Ïi ∂i f (
x) + 
	 
∈–(N) 
Î 
 
 
i∈ 
 
 J (xi ) f (
x) − f (
x) 
where 
 J (xi ) f (
x) = 
⎧⎨ 
⎩ 
f (x1, . . . , xi − Ìi , . . . xN), xi  Ìi 
0 xi ≤ Ìi 
, DNJs 
Ìi 

 
0− 
xi 
f (x1, . . . , xi + ji , . . . xN) eÌi ji d ji , ENJs 
(94)
3.4 Green’s X 
formula 
Now we can formulate Green’s formula adapted to  
the problem  
under consideration. 
To this end we introduce the Green’s function G 
t, x,
T, , such that 
GT 
 
t,
x, T,
X 
 
− L(
X 
)†G 
 
t,

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Credit Value Adjustment in the Extended Structural Default Model

  • 1. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 406 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi c h a p t e r 12 ................................................................................................................ credit value adjustment in the extended structural default model ................................................................................................................ alexander lipton and artur sepp 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 1.1 Motivation In view of the recent turbulence in the credit markets and given a huge outstanding notional amount of credit derivatives, counterparty risk has become a critical issue for the financial industry as a whole. According to the most recent survey conveyed by the International Swap Dealers Association (see <www.isda.org>), the outstanding notional amount of credit default swaps is $38.6 trillion as of 31 December 2008 (it has decreased from $62.2 trillion as of 31, December 2007). By way of comparison, the outstanding notional amount of interest rate derivatives was $403.1 trillion, while the outstanding notional amount of equity derivatives was $8.7 trillion. The biggest bankruptcy in US history filed by one of the major derivatives dealers, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., in September of 2008 makes counterparty risk estimation and management vital to the financial system at large and all the participating financial institutions. The key objective of this chapter is to develop a methodology for valuing the coun-terparty credit risk inherent in credit default swaps (CDSs). For the protection buyer (PB), a CDS contract provides protection against a possible default of the reference name (RN) in exchange for periodic payments to the protection seller (PS) whose magnitude is determined by the so-called CDS spread. When a PB buys a CDS from a risky PS they have to cope with two types of risk: (a) market risk which comes
  • 2. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 407 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 407 directly from changes in the mark-to-market (MTM) value of the CDS due to credit spread and interest rate changes; (b) credit risk which comes from the fact that PS may be unable to honour their obligation to cover losses stemming from the default of the corresponding RN. During the life of a CDS contract, a realized loss due to the counterparty exposure arises when PS defaults before RN and, provided that MTM of the CDS is positive, the counterparty pays only a fraction of the MTM value of the existing CDS contract (ifMTMof the CDS is negative to PB, this CDS can be unwound at its market price). Since PB realizes positive MTM gains when the credit quality of RN deteriorates (since the probability of receiving protection increases), their realized loss due to PS default is especially big if the credit quality of RN and PS deteriorate simultaneously but PS defaults first. We define the credit value adjustment (CVA), or the counterparty charge (CC), as the maximal expected loss on a short position (protection bought) in a CDS contract. In order to describe CVA in quantitative rather than qualitative terms, in this chapter we build a multi-dimensional structural default model. Below we concentrate on its two-dimensional (2D) version and show that the evaluation of CVA is equivalent to pricing a 2D down-and-in digital option with the down barrier being triggered when the value of the PS’s assets crosses their default barrier and the option rebate being determined by the value of the RN’s assets at the barrier crossing time. We also briefly discuss the complementary problem of determining CVA for a long position (protection sold) in a CDS contract. Traditionally, the par CDS spread at inception is set in such a way that the MTM value of the contract is zero.1 Thus, the option underlying CVA is at-the-money, so that its value is highly sensitive to the volatility of the RN’s CDS spread, while the barrier triggering event is highly sensitive to the volatility of the PS’s asset value. In addition to that, the option value is sensitive to the correlation between RN and PS. This observation indicates that for dealing with counterparty risk we need to model the correlation between default times of RN and PS as well as CDS spread volatilities for both of them. It turns out that our structural model is very well suited to accomplish this highly non-trivial task. 1.2 Literature overview Merton developed the original version of the so-called structural default model (Mer-ton 1974). He postulated that the firm’s value V is driven by a lognormal diffusion and that the firm, which borrowed a zero-coupon bond with face value N and matu-rity T, defaults at time T if the value of the firm V is less than the bond’s face 1 Subsequent to the so-called ‘big bang’ which occurred in 2009, CDS contracts frequently trade on an up-front basis with fixed coupon.
  • 3. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 408 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 408 a. lipton & a. sepp value N. Following this ioneering insight, many authors proposed various extensions of the basic model (Black and Cox 1976; Kim and Ramaswamy, and Sundaresan 1993; Nielsen, and Saa-Requejo, and Santa-Clara 1993; Leland 1994; Longstaff and Schwartz 1995; Leland and Toft 1996; Albanese and Chen 2005) among others. They considered more complicated forms of debt and assumed that the default event may be triggered continuously up to the debt maturity. More recent research has been concentrated on extending the model in order to be able to generate the high short-term CDS spreads typically observed in the market. It has been shown that the latter task can be achieved either by making default barriers curvilinear (Hyer et al. 1998; Hull and White 2001; Avellaneda and Zhou 2001), or by making default barriers stochastic (Finger et al. 2002), or by incorporating jumps into the firm’s value dynamics (Zhou 2001a; Hilberink and Rogers 2002; Lipton 2002b; Lipton, Song, and Lee 2007; Sepp 2004, 2006; Cariboni and Schoutens 2007; Feng and Linetsky 2008). Multi-dimensional extensions of the structural model have been studied by several researchers (Zhou 2001b; Hull and White 2001;Haworth 2006;Haworth Reisinger, and Shaw 2006; Valu˘zis 2008), who considered bivariate correlated log-normal dynamics for two firms and derived analytical formulas for their joint survival probability; Li (2000), who introduced the Gaussian copula description of correlated default times in multi-dimensional structural models; Kiesel and Scherer (2007), who studied a multi-dimensional structural model and proposed a mixture of semi-analytical and Monte Carlo (MC) methods for model calibration and pricing. While we build a general multi-dimensional structural model, our specific efforts are aimed at a quantitative estimation of the counterparty risk. Relevant work on the counterparty risk includes, among others, Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), who developed the so called reduced-form default model and analysed the counterparty risk in this framework; Hull and White (2001), Blanchet-Scalliet and Patras (2008), who modelled the correlation between RN and the counterparty by considering their bivariate corre-lated lognormal dynamics; Turnbull (2005), Pugachevsky (2006), who derived model-free upper and lower bounds for the counterparty exposure; Jarrow and Yu (2001), Leung and Kwok (2005) who studied counterparty risk in the reduced-form setting; Pykhtin and Zhu (2006), Misirpashaev 2008), who applied the Gaussian copula for-malism to study counterparty effects; Brigo and Chourdakis (2008), who considered correlated dynamics of the credit spreads, etc. Our approach requires the solution of partial integro-differential equations (PIDE) with a non-local integral term. The analysis of solution methods based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) can be found in Broadie-Broadie and Yamamoto (2003), Jackson and Jaimungal, and Surkov (2007), Boyarchenko and Levendorski (2008), Fang and Oosterlee (2008), Feng and Linetsky (2008), and Lord et al. (2008). The treatment via finite-difference (FD) methods can be found in Andersen and Andreasen (2000), Lipton (2003), d’Halluin, Forsyth, and Vetzal (2005), Cont and Voltchkova (2005), Carr and Mayo (2007), Lipton, Song, and Lee (2007), Toiva-nen (2008), and Clift and Forsyth (2008).
  • 4. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 409 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 409 1.3 Contribution In this chapter, we develop a novel variant of the one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D), and multi-dimensional structural default model the assumption that firms’ values are driven by correlated additive processes. (Recall that an additive process is a jump-diffusion process with time-inhomogeneous increments.) In order to calibrate the 1D version of our structural model to the CDS spread curve observed in themarket, we introduce jumps with piecewise constant intensity. We correlate jumps of different firms via aMarshall-Olkin inspiredmechanism (Marshall and Olkin 1967). This model was presented for the first time by Lipton and Sepp (2009). In this chapter, we develop robust FFT- and FD-based methods for model cali-bration via forward induction and for credit derivatives pricing via backward induc-tion in one and two dimensions. While the FFT-based solution methods are easy to implement, they require uniform grids and a large number of discretization steps. At the same time, FD-based methods, while more complex, tend to provide greater flexibility and stability. As part of our FD scheme development, we obtain new explicit recursion formulas for the evaluation of the 2D convolution term for discrete and exponential jumps. In addition, we present a closed-form formula for the joint survival probability of two firms driven by correlated lognormal bivariate diffusion processes by using the method of images, thus complementing results obtained byHe, Keirstead, and Rebholz, (1998), Lipton (2001), and Zhou (2001b) via the classical eigenfunction expansionmethod. As always, themethod of images works well for shorter times, while the method of eigenfunction expansion works well for longer times. We use the above results to develop an innovative approach to the estimation of CVA for CDSs. Our approach is dynamic in nature and takes into account both the correlation between RN and PS (or PB) and the CDS spread volatilities. The approaches proposed by Leung and Kwok (2005), Pykhtin and Zhu (2006), andMisir-pashaev (2008) do not account for spread volatility and, as a result, may underesti-mate CVA. Blanchet-Patras consider a conceptually similar approach; however, their analytical implementation is restricted to lognormal bivariate dynamics with constant volatilities, which makes it impossible to fit the term structure of the CDS spreads and CDS option volatilities implied by the market (Blanchet-Scalliet and Patras 2008). Accordingly, the corresponding CVA valuation is biased. In contrast, our model can be fitted to an arbitrary term structure of CDS spreads and market prices of CDS and equity options. The approach by Hull and White (2001) uses MC simulations of the correlated lognormal bivariate diffusions. In contrast, our approach assumes jump-diffusion dynamics, potentially more realistic for default modelling, and uses robust semi-analytical and numerical methods for model calibration and CVA valuation. This chapter is organized as follows. In section 2 we introduce the structural default model in one, two, and multi-dimensions. In section 3 we formulate the generic pricing problem in one, two and multi-dimensions. In section 4 we consider the pricing problem for CDSs, CDS options (CDSOs), first-to-default swaps (FTDSs), and the valuation problem for CVA. In section 5 we develop analytical, asymptotic,
  • 5. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 410 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 410 a. lipton & a. sepp and numerical methods for solving the 1D pricing problem. In particular, we describe MC, FFT, and FD methods for solving the calibration problem via forward induction and the pricing problem via backward induction. In section 6 we present analytical and numerical methods for solving the 2D pricing problem, including FFT and FD methods. In section 7 we provide an illustration of our findings by showing how to calculate CVA for a CDS on Morgan Stanley (MS) sold by JP Morgan (JPM) and a CDS on JPM sold by MS.We formulate brief conclusions in section 8. 2 Structural model and default event ................................................................................................................................................ In this section we describe our structural default model in one, two, and multi-dimensions. Qt 2.1 Notation Throughout the chapter, we model uncertainty by constructing a probability space (Ÿ,F, F,Q) with the filtration F = {F(t), t ≥ 0} and a martingale measure Q. We assume that Q is specified by market prices of liquid credit products. The operation of expectation under Q given information set F(t) at time t is denoted by E[·]. The imaginary unit is denoted by i, i = √ −1. The instantaneous risk-free interest rate r (t) is assumed to be deterministic; the corresponding discount factor, D(t, T) is given by: D(t, T) = exp − T t r (t)dt (1) It is applied at valuation time t for cash flows generated at time T, 0 ≤ t ≤ T ∞. The indicator function of an event ˆ is denoted by 1ˆ: 1ˆ = 1 ifˆ is true 0 ifˆ is false (2) The Heaviside step function is denoted by H(x), H(x) = 1{x≥0} (3) the Dirac delta function is denoted by δ(x); the Kronecker delta function is denoted by δn,n0 .We also use the following notation {x} + = max{x, 0} (4) We denote the normal probability density function (PDF) by n (x); and the cumu-lative normal probability function by N(x); besides, we frequently use the function P (a, b) defined as follows:
  • 6. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 411 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 411 P(a, b) = exp ab + b2/2 N(a + b) (5) 2.2 One-dimensional case 2.2.1 Asset value dynamics We denote the firm’s asset value by a(t). We assume that a(t) is driven by a 1D jump-diffusion under Q: da(t) = (r (t) − Ê(t) − Î(t)Í)a(t)dt + Û(t)a(t)dW(t) + (e j − 1)dN(t) (6) where Ê(t) is the deterministic dividend rate on the firm’s assets, W(t) is a standard Brownian motion, Û(t) is the deterministic volatility, N(t) is a Poisson process inde-pendent of W(t), Î(t) is its intensity, j is the jump amplitude, which is a random variable with PDF ( j ); and Í is the jump compensator: Í = 0 −∞ e j( j )d j −1 (7) To reduce the number of free parameters, we concentrate on one-parametric PDFs with negative jumps which may result in random crossings of the default barrier. We consider either discrete negative jumps (DNJs) of size −Ì, Ì 0, with ( j) = δ( j + Ì), Í = e−Ì −1 (8) or exponential negative jumps (ENJs) with mean size 1 Ì , Ì 0, with: ( j) = ÌeÌj , j 0, Í = Ì Ì + 1 − 1 = − 1 Ì + 1 (9) In our experience, for 1Dmarginal dynamics the choice of the jump size distribution has no impact on the model calibration to CDS spreads and CDS option volatilities, however for the joint correlated dynamics this choice becomes very important, as we will demonstrate shortly. 2.2.2 Default boundary The cornerstone assumption of a structural default model is that the firm defaults when its value crosses a deterministic or, more generally, random default boundary. The default boundary can be specified either endogenously or exogenously. The endogenous approach was originated by Black and Cox (1976) who used it to study the optimal capital structure of a firm. Under a fairly strict assumption that the firm’s liabilities can only be financed by issuing new equity, the equity holders have the right to push the firm into default by stopping issuing new equity to cover the interest payments to bondholders and, instead, turning the firm over to the bondholders. Black and Cox (1976) found the critical level for the firm’s value, below which it is not optimal for equity holders to sell any more equity. Equity holders should determine the critical value or the default barrier by maximizing the value of the equity and, respectively,
  • 7. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 412 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 412 a. lipton a. sepp minimizing the value of outstanding bonds. Thus, the optimal debt-to-equity ratio and the endogenous default barrier are decision variables in this approach. A nice review of the Black-Cox approach and its extensions is given by Bielecki and Rutkowski (2002), and Uhrig-Homburg (2002). However, in our view, the endogenous approach is not realistic given the complicated equity-liability structure of large firms and the actual relationships between the firm’s management and its equity and debtholders. For example, in July 2009 the bail-out of a commercial lender CIT was carried out by debtholders, who proposed debt restructuring, rather than by equity holders, who had no negotiating power. In the exogenous approach, the default boundary is one of the model parameters. The default barrier is typically specified as a fraction of the debt per share estimated by the recovery ratio of firms with similar characteristics. While still not very realistic, this approach is more intuitive and practical (see, for instance, Kim and Ramaswamy, and Sundaresan 1993; Nielsen, and Saa-Requejo, and Santa-Clara 1993; Longstaff and Schwartz 1995; etc.). In our approach, similarly to Lipton (2002b); and Stamicar and Finger (2005), we assume that the default barrier of the firm is a deterministic function of time given by l (t) = E (t)l (0) (10) where E (t) is the deterministic growth factor: E (t) = exp t 0 (r (t) − Ê(t))dt (11) and l (0) is defined by l (0) = RL(0), where R is an average recovery of the firm’s liabilities and L(0) is its total debt per share. We find L(0) from the balance sheet as the ratio of the firm’s total liability to the total common shares outstanding; R is found from CDS quotes, typically, it is assumed that R = 0.4. 2.2.3 Default triggering event The key variable of the model is the random default time which we denote by Ù. We assume that Ù is an F-adapted stopping time, Ù ∈ (0,∞]. In general, the default event can be triggered in three ways. First, when the firm’s value is monitored only at the debt’s maturity time T, then the default time is defined by: Ù = T, a(T) ≤ l (T) ∞, a(T) l (T) (12) This is the case of terminal default monitoring (TDM) which we do not use below. Second, if the firm’s value is monitored at fixed points in time, {tdm }m=1,. . .,M, 0 td 1 . . . tdM ≤ T, then the default event can only occur at some time tdm . The corresponding default time is specified by:
  • 8. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 413 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 413 Ù = min{tdm : a(tdm ) ≤ l (tdm )}, min{} = ∞ (13) This is the case of discrete default monitoring (DDM). Third, if the firm’s value is monitored at all times 0 t ≤ T, then the default event can occur at any time between the current time t and the maturity time T. The corresponding default time is specified by: Ù = inf{t, 0 ≤ t ≤ T : a(t) ≤ l (t)}, inf{} = ∞ (14) This is the case of continuous default monitoring (CDM). The TDM assumption is hard to justify and apply for realistic debt structures. The DDM assumption is reasonably realistic. Under this assumption, efficient quasi-analytical methods can be applied in one and two dimensions under the log-normal dynamics (Hull and White 2001) and in one dimension under jump-diffusion dynamics (Lipton 2003; Lipton, Song, and Lee 2007; Feng and Linetsky 2008). Numer-ical PIDE methods for the problem with DDM tend to have slower convergence rates than those for the problem with CDM, because the solution is not smooth at default monitoring times in the vicinity of the default barrier. However, MC-based methods can be applied in the case of DDM in a robust way, because the firm’s asset values need to be simulated only at default monitoring dates. Importantly, there is no conceptual difficulty in applying MC simulations for the multi-dimensional model. In the case of CDM closed-form solutions are available for the survival probability in one dimension (see e.g. Leland 1994; Leland and Toft 1996) and two dimensions (Zhou 2001b) for lognormal diffusions; and in one dimension for jump-diffusions with negative jumps (see e.g. Zhou 2001a; Hilberink and Rogers 2002; Lipton 2002b; Sepp 2004, 2006). In the case of CDM, numerical FD methods in one and two dimensions tend to have a better rate of convergence in space and time than in the case of DDM. However, a serious disadvantage of the CDM assumption is that the corresponding MC implementation is complex and slow because continuous barriers are difficult to deal with, especially in the multi-dimensional case. Accordingly, CDM is useful for small-scale problems which can be solved without MC methods, while DDM is better suited for large-scale problems, such that semi-analytical FFT or PIDE-based methods can be used to calibrate the model to marginal dynamics of individual firms andMC techniques can be used to solve the pricing prob-lem for several firms. In our experience, we have not observed noticeable differences between DDM and CDM settings, provided that the model is calibrated appropriately. We note in passing that, as reported by Davidson (2008), the industry practice is to use about 100 time steps with at least 60 steps in the first year in MC simulations of deriv-atives positions to estimate the counterparty exposure. This implies weekly default monitoring frequency in the first year and quarterly monitoring in the following years. 2.2.4 Asset value, equity, and equity options We introduce the log coordinate x(t): x(t) = ln a(t) l (t) (15)
  • 9. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 414 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 414 a. lipton a. sepp and represent the asset value as follows: a(t) = E (t)l (0)e x(t) = l (t) e x(t) (16) where x(t) is driven by the following dynamics under Q: dx(t) = Ï(t)dt + Û(t)dW(t) + j dN(t) (17) x(0) = ln a(0) l (0) ≡ Ó, Ó 0 Ï(t) = −1 2 Û2(t) − Î(t)Í We observe that, under this formulation of the firm value process, the default time is specified by: Ù = min{t : x(t) ≤ 0} (18) triggered either discretely or continuously. Accordingly, the default event is deter-mined only by the dynamics of the stochastic driver x(t). We note that the shifted process y(t) = x(t) − Ó is an additive process with respect to the filtration F which is characterized by the following conditions: y(t) is adapted to F(t), increments of y(t) are independent of F(t), y(t) is continuous in probability, and y(t) starts from the origin, Sato (1999). The main difference between an additive process and a Levy process is that the distribution of increments in the former process is time dependent. Without loss of generality, we assume that volatility Û(t) and jump intensity Î(t) are piecewise constant functions of time changing at times {tc k }, k = 1, . . . , k: Û(t) = k k=1 Û(k)1{tc k−1t≤tc k } + Û(k)1{ttc k } (19) Î(t) = k k=1 Î(k)1{tc k−1t≤tc k } + Î(k)1{ttc k } where Û(k) defines the volatility and Î(k) defines the intensity at time periods (tc k−1, tc k ] 0 = 0, k = 1, . . . , k. In the case of DDM we assume that {tc with tc k } is a subset of {tdm }, so that parameters do not jump between observation dates. We consider the firm’s equity share price, which is denoted by s (t), and, following Stamicar and Finger (2005), assume that the value of s (t) is given by: s (t) = a(t) − l (t) = E (t)l (0) e x(t) − 1 = l (t) e x(t) − 1 , {t Ù} 0, {t ≥ Ù} (20) At time t = 0, s (0) is specified by themarket price of the equity share. Accordingly, the initial value of the firm’s assets is given by: a(0) = s (0) + l (0) (21)
  • 10. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 415 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 415 It is important to note that Û(t) is the volatility of the firm’s assets. The volatility of the equity, Ûeq(t), is approximately related to Û(t) by: Ûeq(t) = 1 + l (t) s (t) Û(t) (22) As a result, for fixed Û(t) the equity volatility increases as the spot price s (t) decreases creating the leverage effect typically observed in the equity market. The model with equity volatility of the type (22) is also know as the displaced diffusion model, which was introduced by Rubinstein (1983). 2.3 Two-dimensional case To deal with the counterparty risk problem, we need to model the correlated dynamics of two ormore credit entities. We consider two firms and assume that their asset values are driven by the following stochascic differential equations(SDEs): dai (t) = (r (t) − Êi (t) − Íi Îi (t))ai (t) dt + Ûi (t) ai (t)dWi (t) + e ji −1 ai (t)dNi (t) (23) where Íi = 0 −∞ e jii ( ji )d ji −1 (24) jump amplitudes ji has the same PDF i ( ji ) as in the marginal dynamics, jump intensities Îi (t) are equal to the marginal intensities calibrated to single-name CDSs, volatility parameters Ûi (t) are equal to those in the marginal dynamics, i = 1, 2. The corresponding default boundaries have the form: li (t) = Ei (t) li (0) (25) where Ei (t) = exp t 0 (r (t) − Êi (t))dt (26) In log coordinates with xi (t) = ln ai (t) li (t) (27) we obtain: dxi (t) = Ïi (t)dt + Ûi (t)dWi (t) + jidNi (t) (28) xi (0) = ln ai (0) li (0) ≡ Ói , Ói 0 Ïi (t) = −1 2 Û2 i (t) − Íi Îi (t)
  • 11. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 416 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 416 a. lipton a. sepp The default time of the i -th firm, Ùi , is defined by Ùi = min{t : xi (t) ≤ 0} (29) Correlation between the firms is introduced in two ways. First, standard Brownian motions W1(t) and W2(t) are correlated with correlation Ò. Second, Poisson processes N1(t), N2(t) are represented as follows: Ni (t) = N{i } (t) + N{1,2} (t) (30) where N{1,2} (t) is the systemic process with the intensity: Î{1,2}(t) = max{Ò, 0} min{Î1(t), Î2(t)} (31) while N{i }(t) are idiosyncratic processes with the intensities Î{i }(t), specified by: Î{1}(t) = Î1(t) − Î{1,2}(t), Î{2}(t) = Î2(t) − Î{1,2}(t) (32) This choice, which is Marshall-Olkin (1967) inspired, guarantees that marginal distri-butions are preserved, while sufficiently strong correlations are introduced naturally. Expressing the correlation structure in terms of one parameter Ò has an advantage for model calibration. After the calibration to marginal dynamics is completed for each firm, and the set of firm’s volatilities, jump sizes, and intensities is obtained, we estimate the parameter Ò by fitting themodel spread of a FTDS to a givenmarket quote. It is clear that the default time correlations are closely connected to the instanta-neous correlations of the firms’ values. For the bivariate dynamics in question, we calculate the instantaneous correlations between the drivers x1(t) and x2(t) as follows: ÒDNJ 12 =
  • 13. 1,2}Ì1Ì2 Û+ Î1ÌÛ22 21 21 + Î2Ì22 , ÒENJ 12 =
  • 15. 1,2}/(Ì1Ì2) Û+ 2Î1/ÌÛ22 21 21 + 2Î2/Ì22 (33) where we suppress the time variable. Here ÒDNJ 12 and ÒENJ 12 are correlations for DNJs and ENJs, respectively. For large systemic intensities Î{1,2}, we see that ÒDNJ 12 ∼ 1, while ÒENJ 12 ∼ 12 . Thus, for ENJs correlations tend to be smaller than for DNJs. In our experiments with different firms, we have computed implied Gaussian copula correlations from model spreads of FTDS referencing different credit entities and found that, typically, the maximal implied Gaussian correlation that can be achieved is about 90% for DNJs and about 50% for ENJs (in both casesmodel parameters were calibrated to match the term struc-ture of CDS spreads and CDS option volatilities). Thus, the ENJs assumption is not appropriate for modelling the joint dynamics of strongly correlated firms belonging to one industry, such as, for example, financial companies. 2.4 Multi-dimensional case Now we consider N firms and assume that their asset values are driven by the same equations as before, but with the index i running from 1 to N, i = 1, . . . , N.
  • 16. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 417 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 417 We correlate diffusions in the usual way and assume that: dWi (t)dWj (t) = Òi j (t) dt (34) We correlate jumps following the Marshall-Olkin (1967) idea. Let –(N) be the set of all subsets of N names except for the empty subset {∅}, and  be its typical member. With every  we associate a Poisson process N (t) with intensity Î (t), and represent Ni (t) as follows: Ni (t) = ∈–(N) 1{i∈}N (t) (35) Îi (t) = ∈–(N) 1{i∈}Î (t) Thus, we assume that there are both systemic and idiosyncratic jump sources. By analogy, we can introduce systemic and idiosyncratic factors for the Brownian motion dynamics. 3 General pricing problem ................................................................................................................................................ In this section we formulate the generic pricing problem in 1D, 2D, and multi-dimensions. 3.1 One-dimensional problem For DDM, the value function V(t, x) solves the following problem on the entire axis x ∈ R1: Vt (t, x) + L(x)V(t, x) − r (t) V(t, x) = 0 (36) supplied with the natural far-field boundary conditions V(t, x) → x→±∞ ı±∞(t, x) (37) Here tdm −1 t tdm . At t = tdm, the value function undergoes a transformation Vm−(x) = – Vm+(x) (38) dm dm dm where –{.} is the transformation operator, which depends on the specifics of the contract under consideration, and Vm± (x) = V(t±, x). Here t± ± = tε. Finally, at t = T V (T, x) = v (x) (39)
  • 17. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 418 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 418 a. lipton a. sepp the terminal payoff function v(x) is contract specific. Here L(x) is the infinitesimal operator of process x(t) under dynamics (17): L(x) = D(x) + Î(t)J (x) (40) D(x) is a differential operator: D(x)V(x) = 1 2 Û2(t)Vxx (x) + Ï(t)Vx (x) − Î (t) V (x) (41) and J (x) is a jump operator: J (x)V(x) = 0 −∞ V(x + j )( j )d j (42) For CDM, we assume that the value of the contract is determined by the terminal payoff function v(x), the cash flow function c (t, x), the rebate function z(t, x) specify-ing the payoff following the default event (we note that the rebate function may depend on the residual value of the firm), and the far-field boundary condition. The backward equation for the value function V(t, x) is formulated differently on the positive semi-axis x ∈ R1 + and negative semi-axis R1 −: Vt (t, x) + L(x)V(t, x) − r (t) V(t, x) = c (t, x), x ∈ R1 + V(t, x) = z(t, x), x ∈ R1 − (43) This equation is supplied with the usual terminal condition on R1: V(T, x) = v(x) (44) where J (x) is a jump operator which is defined as follows: J (x)V(x) = 0 −∞ V(x + j )( j )d j (45) = 0 −x V(x + j )( j )d j + −x −∞ z(x + j )( j )d j In particular, J (x)V(x) = V − − (x Ì) 1{Ì≤x} + z (x Ì) 1{Ìx}, DNJs Ì 0− x V (x + j ) eÌj d j + Ì −x −∞ z (x + j ) eÌj d j, ENJs (46) For ENJs J (x)V(x) also can be written as J (x)V(x) = Ì x 0 V (y) eÌ(y−x)dy + Ì 0 −∞ z (y) eÌ(y−x)dy (47) In principle, for both DDM and CDM, the computational domain for x is R1. However, for CDM, we can restrict ourselves to the positive semi-axis R1 +. We can represent the integral term in problem eq. (46) as follows: J (x)V(x) ≡ J (x)V(x) + Z(x)(x) (48)
  • 18. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 419 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 419 where J (x), Z(x)(x) are defined by: J (x)V(x) = 0 −x V(x + j )( j )d j (49) Z(x)(x) = −x −∞ z(x + j )( j )d j (50) so that Z(x)(x) is the deterministic function depending on the contract rebate function z(x). As a result, by subtracting Z(x) from rhs of eq. (43), we can formulate the pricing equation on the positive semi-axis R1 + as follows: Vt (t, x) + L(x)V(t, x) − r (t) V(t, x) = ˆc (t, x) (51) It is supplied with the boundary conditions at x = 0, x →∞: V(t, 0) = z(t, 0), V(t, x) → x→∞ ı∞(t, x) (52) and the terminal condition for x ∈ R1 +: V(T, x) = v(x) (53) Here L(x) = D(x) + Î(t) J (x) (54) ˆc (t, x) = c (t, x) − Î (t) Z(x) (t, x) (55) We introduce the Green’s function denoted by G(t, x, T, X), representing the prob-ability density of x(T) = X given x(t) = x and conditional on no default between t and T. For DDM the valuation problem for G can be formulated as follows: GT (t, x, T, X) − L(X)†G(t, x, T, X) = 0 (56) G(t, x, T, X) → X→±∞0 (57) G (t, x, tm+, X) = G (t, x, tm−, X) 1{X0} (58) G(t, x, t, X) = δ(X − x) (59) where L(x)† being the infinitesimal operator adjoint to L(x): L(x)† = D(x)† + Î(t)J (x)† (60) D(x)† is the differential operator: D(x)†g (x) = 1 2 Û2(t)gxx (x) − Ï(t)gx (x) − Î (t) g (x) (61)
  • 19. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 420 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 420 a. lipton a. sepp and J (x)† is the jump operator: J (x)†g (x) = 0 −∞ g (x − j )( j )d j (62) For CDM, the PIDE for G is defined on R1 + and the boundary conditions are applied continuously: GT (t, x, T, X) − L(X)†G(t, x, T, X) = 0 (63) G(t, x, T, 0) = 0, G(t, x, T, X) → X→∞0 (64) G(t, x, t, X) = δ(X − x) (65) 3.2 Two-dimensional problem We assume that the specifics of the contract are encapsulated by the terminal payoff function v(x1, x2), the cash flow function c (t, x1, x2), the rebate functions z·(t, x1, x2), · = (−, +) , (−,−) , (+,−), the default-boundary functions v0,i (t, x3−i ), i = 1, 2, and the far-field functions v±∞,i (t, x1, x2) specifying the conditions for large values of xi . We denote the value function of this contract by V(t, x1, x2). For DDM, the pricing equation defined in the entire plane R2 can be written as follows: Vt (t, x1, x2) + L(x)V(t, x1, x2) − r (t) V(t, x1, x2) = 0 (66) As before, it is supplied with the far-field conditions V(t, x1, x2) → xi→±∞ ı±∞,i (t, x1, x2), i = 1,2 (67) At times tdm the value function is transformed according to the rule Vm−(x1, x2) = – Vm+(x1, x2) (68) The terminal condition is V(T, x1, x2) = v(x1, x2) (69) Here L(x1,x2) is the infinitesimal backward operator corresponding to the bivariate dynamics (28): L(x1,x2) = D(x1) + D(x2) + C(x1,x2) (70) +Î{1}(t)J (x1) + Î{2}(t)J (x2) + Î{1,2}(t)J (x1,x2) Here, D(x1) and D(x2) are the differential operators in x1 and x2 directions defined by eq. (41) with Î (t) = Î{i } (t); J (x1) and J (x2) are the 1D orthogonal integral operators in x1 and x2 directions defined by eq. (45) with appropriate model parameters; C(x1,x2) is the correlation operator:
  • 20. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 421 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 421 C(x1,x2)V(x1, x2) ≡ ÒÛ1(t)Û2(t)Vx1x2 (x1, x2) − Î{1,2} (t) V (x1, x2) (71) and J (x1,x2) is the cross integral operator defined as follows: J (x1,x2)V(x1, x2) ≡ 0 −∞ 0 −∞ V(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 (72) For CDM, V(t, x1, x2) solves the following problem in the positive quadrant R2 +,+: Vt (t, x1, x2) + L(x1,x2)V(t, x1, x2) − r (t) V(t, x1, x2) = ˆc (t, x1, x2) (73) V(t, 0, x2) = v0,1(t, x2), V(t, x1, x2) → x1→∞ v∞,1(t, x1,x2) (74) V(t, x1, 0) = v0,2(t, x1), V(t, x1, x2) → x2→∞ v∞,2(t, x1, x2) V(T, x1, x2) = v(x1, x2) (75) where L(x1,x2) is the infinitesimal backward operator defined by: L(x1,x2) = D(x1) + D(x2) + C(x1,x2) (76) +Î{1}(t) J (x1) + Î{2}(t) J (x2) + Î{1,2}(t) J (x1,x2) with J (x1,x2)V(x1, x2) ≡ 0 −x1 0 −x2 V(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 (77) The ‘equivalent’ cash flows can be represented as follows: ˆc (t, x1, x2) = c (t, x1, x2) − Î{1} (t) Z(x1) (t, x1, x2) − Î{2} (t) Z(x2) (t, x1, x2) (78) −Î{1,2} Z(x1,x2) −,+ (t, x1, x2) + Z(x1,x2) −,− (t, x1, x2) + Z(x1,x2) +,− (t, x1, x2) where Z(x1) (t, x1, x2) = −x1 −∞ z−,+(x1 + j1, x2)1( j1)d j1 (79) Z(x2) (t, x1, x2) = −x2 −∞ z+,−(x1, x2 + j2)2( j2)d j2 Z(x1,x2) −,+ (x1, x2) = −x1 −∞ 0 −x2 z−,+(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 Z(x1,x2) −,− (x1, x2) = −x1 −∞ −x2 −∞ z−,−(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 Z(x1,x2) +,− (x1, x2) = 0 −x1 −x2 −∞ z+,−(x1 + j1, x2 + j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2
  • 21. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 422 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 422 a. lipton a. sepp For DDM, the corresponding Green’s function G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2), satisfies the following problem in the whole plane R2: GT (t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) − L(X1,X2)†G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) = 0 (80) G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) → Xi→±∞0 (81) G (t, x1, x2, tm+, X1, X2) = G (t, x1, x2, tm−, X1, X2) 1{X10,X20} (82) G(t, x1, x2, t, X1, X2) = δ(X1 − x1)δ(X2 − x2) (83) where L(x1,x2)† is the operator adjoint to L(x1,x2): L(x1,x2)† = D(x1)† + D(x2)† + C(x1,x2) (84) +Î{1}(t)J (x1)† + Î{2}(t)J (x2)† + Î{1,2}(t)J (x1,x2)† and J (x1,x2)†g (x1, x2) = 0 −∞ 0 −∞ g (x1 − j1, x2 − j2)1( j1)2( j2)d j1d j2 (85) For CDM, the corresponding Green’s function satisfies the following problem in the positive quadrant R2 +,+: GT (t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) − L(X1,X2)†G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) = 0 (86) G(t, x1, x2, T, 0, X2) = 0, G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, 0) = 0 (87) G(t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2) → Xi→∞ 0 G(t, x1, x2, t, X1, X2) = δ(X1 − x1)δ(X2 − x2) (88) 3.3 Multi-dimensional problem For brevity, we restrict ourselves to CDM. As before, we can formulate a typical pricing problem for the value function V (t,
  • 22. x) in the positive cone RN + as follows: Vt (t,
  • 25. x) − r (t) V (t,
  • 26. x) = ˆc (t,
  • 27. x) (89) V t,
  • 28. x0,k = v0,k (t,
  • 29. y k), V (t,
  • 30. x) → xk→∞ v∞,k (t,
  • 31. x) (90) V (T,
  • 32. x) = v (
  • 34. x,
  • 36. y k are N and N − 1 dimensional vectors, respectively,
  • 37. x = (x1, . . . , xk, . . . xN)
  • 38. x0,k = x1, . . . ,0k , . . . xN
  • 39. y k = (x1, . . . xk−1, xk+1, . . . xN) (92)
  • 40. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 423 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 423 Here ˆc (t,
  • 42. y ), v∞,k (t,
  • 44. x) are known functions which are contract specific. The function ˆc (t,
  • 45. x) incorporates the terms arising from rebates. The cor-responding operator L(
  • 46. x) can be written in the form L(
  • 48. x) = 1 2 i Û2 i ∂2 i f (
  • 49. x) + i, j, ji Òi j ÛiÛj ∂i ∂j f (
  • 50. x) (93) + i Ïi ∂i f (
  • 51. x) + ∈–(N) Î i∈ J (xi ) f (
  • 52. x) − f (
  • 53. x) where J (xi ) f (
  • 54. x) = ⎧⎨ ⎩ f (x1, . . . , xi − Ìi , . . . xN), xi Ìi 0 xi ≤ Ìi , DNJs Ìi 0− xi f (x1, . . . , xi + ji , . . . xN) eÌi ji d ji , ENJs (94)
  • 55. 3.4 Green’s X formula Now we can formulate Green’s formula adapted to the problem under consideration. To this end we introduce the Green’s function G t, x,
  • 56. T, , such that GT t,
  • 57. x, T,
  • 58. X − L(
  • 59. X )†G t,
  • 60. x, T,
  • 61. X = 0 (95) G t,
  • 62. x, T,
  • 63. X 0k = 0, G t,
  • 64. x, T,
  • 65. X → Xk→∞0 (96) G t,
  • 66. x, t,
  • 67. X = δ
  • 68. X −
  • 69. x (97) Here L(
  • 70. x)† is the corresponding adjoint operator L(
  • 72. x) = 1 2 i Û2 i ∂2 i g (
  • 73. x) + i, j, ji Òi j ÛiÛj ∂i ∂j g (
  • 74. x) (98) − i Ïi ∂i g (
  • 75. x) + ∈–(N) Î i∈ J (xi )†g (
  • 76. x) − g (
  • 77. x) where J (xi )†g (
  • 78. x) = g (x1, . . . , xi + Ìi , . . . xN), DNJs Ìi 0 −∞ g (x1, . . . , xi − ji , . . . xN) eÌi ji d ji , ENJs (99) It is easy to check that for both DNJs and ENJs the following identity holds: RN + d
  • 79. x = 0 (100) J (xi ) f (
  • 81. x) − f (
  • 83. x)
  • 84. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 424 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 424 a. lipton a. sepp Accordingly, integration by parts yields V (t,
  • 85. x) = − T t RN + ˆc t ,
  • 86. x D t, t G t,
  • 88. x d
  • 89. xdt (101) + k T t RN−1 + v0,k t k ,
  • 90. y D t, t gk t,
  • 91. x, t k ,
  • 92. y d
  • 93. y kdt +D (t, T) RN + v
  • 94. x G t,
  • 95. x, T,
  • 96. x d
  • 98. x, T,
  • 99. Yk = 1 2 Û2k ∂kG t,
  • 100. x, T,
  • 101. X Xk=0 (102)
  • 102. Yk = (X1, . . . , Xk−1, Xk+1, . . . , XN) represents the hitting time density for the corresponding point of the boundary. In particular, the initial value of a claim has the form V 0,
  • 103. Ó = − T 0 RN + ˆc t ,
  • 104. x D 0, t G 0,
  • 106. x d
  • 107. xdt (103) + k T 0 RN−1 + v0,k t k ,
  • 108. y D 0, t gk 0,
  • 109. Ó, t k ,
  • 110. y d
  • 111. y kdt +D (0, T) RN + v
  • 112. x G 0,
  • 113. Ó, T,
  • 114. x d
  • 115. x This extremely useful formula shows that instead of solving the backward pricing problem with inhomogeneous right hand side and boundary conditions, we can solve the forward propagation problem for the Green’s function with homogeneous rhs and boundary conditions and perform the integration as needed. 4 Pricing problem for credit derivatives ................................................................................................................................................ In this section we formulate the computational problem for several important credit products. We also formulate the CVA problem for CDSs. 4.1 Survival probability The single-name survival probability function, Q(x)(t, x, T), is defined as follows: Q(x)(t, x, T) ≡ 1{Ùt}EQt [1{ÙT}] (104)
  • 116. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 425 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 425 Using the default event definition (13), one can show that for DDM, Q(x)(t, x, T) solves the following backward problem on R1: Q(x) t (t, x, T) + L(x)Q(x)(t, x, T) = 0 (105) Q(x)(t, x, T) → x→−∞ 0, Q(x)(t, x, T) → x→∞1 (106) Q(x) m−(x, T) = Q(x) m+(x, T)1{x0} (107) Q(x)(T, x, T) = 1{x0} (108) with the infinitesimal operator L(x) defined by eq. (40). Likewise, using the default event definition (14), one can show that for CDM, Q(x)(t, x, T) solves the following backward problem on the positive semi-axis R1 +: t (t, x, T) + L(x)Q(x)(t, x, T) = 0 (109) Q(x) Q(x)(t, 0, T) = 0, Q(x)(t, x, T) → x→∞1 (110) Q(x)(T, x, T) = 1 (111) Here the far field condition for x →∞expresses the fact that for large values of x survival becomes certain. Green’s formula (101) yields Q(x) (t, x, T) = ∞ 0 G (t, x, T, X)dX (112) We define the joint survival probability, Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2, T), as follows: Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2, T) ≡ 1{Ù1t,Ù2t}EQt[1{Ù1T,Ù2T}] (113) For DDM, the joint survival probability function Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2) solves the follow-ing problem: Q(x1,x2) t + L(x1,x2)Q(x1,x2) = 0 (114) Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2, T) → xi→−∞0 (115) Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2, T) → xi→∞ Q(x3−i )(t, x3−i , T) Q(x1,x2) m− (x1, x2, T) = Q(x1,x2) m+ (x1, x2, T)1{x10,x20} (116) Q(x1,x2)(T, x1, x2, T) = 1{x10,x20} (117) where the infinitesimal operator L(x1,x2) is defined by eq. (70). Here Q(xi )(t, xi , T), i = 1, 2, are the marginal survival probabilities obtained by solving eq. (105).
  • 117. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 426 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 426 a. lipton a. sepp For CDM, Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2) solves the following problem: t (t, x1, x2, T) + L(x1,x2)Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2, T) = 0 (118) Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, 0, T) = 0, Q(x1,x2) (t, 0, x2, T) = 0 (119) Q(x1,x2)(t, x1, x2, T) → Q(x1,x2) xi→∞ Q(x3−i )(t, x3−i , T) Q(x1,x2)(T, x1, x2, T) = 1 (120) where the infinitesimal operator L(x1,x2) is defined by eq. (76). As before Q(x1,x2) (t, x1, x2, T) = ∞ 0 ∞ 0 G (t, x1, x2, T, X1, X2)dX1dX2 (121) 4.2 Credit default swap A CDS is a contract designed to exchange the credit risk of RN between PB and PS. PB makes periodic coupon payments to PS, conditional on no default of RN up to the nearest payment date, in exchange for receiving loss given RN’s default from PS. For standardized CDS contracts, coupon payments occur quarterly on the 20th of March, June, September, and December. We denote the annualized payment schedule by {tm}, m = 1, . . ., M. The most liquid CDSs have maturities of 5y, 7y, and 10y. We consider a CDS with the unit notional providing protection from the current time t up to the maturity time T. Assuming that RN has not defaulted yet, Ù t, we compute the expected present value of the annuity leg, A(t, T), as: A(t, T) = T t D t, t Q(t, t)dt (122) where Q(t, t) is the corresponding survival probability, and the expected present value of the protection leg, P (t, T), as: P (t, T) = −(1 − R) T t D t, t dQ(t, t) (123) = (1 − R) 1 − D (t, T) Q (t, T) − T t r t D t, t Q(t, t)dt where R is the expected debt recovery rate which is assumed to be given for valuation purposes (typically, R is fixed at 40%). For PB the present value of the CDS contract with coupon (or spread) c , is given by: VCDS(t, T) = P (t, T) − c A(t, T) (124)
  • 118. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 427 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 427 The par coupon c (0, T) is defined in such a way the time t = 0 the value of the CDS contract is zero: c (0, T) = P (0, T) A(0, T) (125) The market-standard computation of the value of a CDS relies on the reduced-form approach (see, for example, Jarrow and Turnbull 1995; Duffie and Singleton 1997; Lando 1998; Hull and White 2000). Typically, a piecewise constant hazard rate is used to parametrize the risk-neutral survival probability of RN. Hazard rates are inferred from the term structure of CDS spreads via bootstrapping. One of the drawbacks of the reduced-form approach is that it assumes that CDS spreads are static and evolve deterministically along with hazard rates. Importantly, this approach does not tell us how CDS spreads change when the RN’s value changes. In contrast, the structural approach does explain changes in the term structure of CDS spreads caused by changes in the firm’s value. Thus, the structural model can be used for valuing credit contracts depending on the volatility of credit spreads. For DDM, the value function for PB of a CDS contract, VCDS(t, x, T), solves eq. (36), supplied with the following conditions: VCDS(t, x, T) → x→−∞ 1 − Rex , VCDS(t, x, T) → x→∞ −c M m=m+1 ‰tmD(t, tm) (126) m+ (x, T) − ‰tmc )1{x0} + (1 − Rex )1{x≤0} (127) VCDS m− (x, T) = (VCDS VCDS (T, x, T) = −‰tMc1{x0} + (1 − Rex )1{x≤0} (128) where ‰tm = tm − tm−1. For CDM, VCDS(t, x, T) solves eq. (51) with ˆc (t, x) = c − Î (t) Z(x) (x) (129) Z(x)(x) = H(Ì − x) 1 − Rex−Ì , DNJs 1 − R Ì 1+Ì e−Ìx , ENJs (130) Here we assume that the floating recovery rate, Rex , represents the residual value of the firm’s assets after the default. The corresponding boundary and terminal conditions are VCDS(t, 0, T) = (1 − R), VCDS(t, x, T) → x→∞ −c T t D(t, t)dt (131) VCDS(T, x, T) = 0 (132) The boundary condition for x →∞ expresses the fact that for large positive x the present value of CDS becomes a risk-free annuity.
  • 119. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 428 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 428 a. lipton a. sepp 4.3 Credit default swap option A CDSO contract serves as a tool for locking in the realized volatility of CDS rate up to the option’s maturity. By using CDSOs quotes we can calibrate the model to this volatility. The payer CDSO with maturity Te and tenor Tt gives its holder the right to enter in a CDS contract providing the protection starting at time Te up to time Te + Tt with a given coupon K. The option knocks out if RN defaults before time Te . Thus, the payout of the payer CDSO is given by: VCDS(Te , Te + Tt ; K) = 1{ÙTe } {P (Te , Te + Tt ) − K A(Te , Te + Tt )} + (133) For DDM, the value function for the buyer of CDSO, VCDSO(t, x, T), solves eq. (36) with c = 0, and the following conditions: VCDSO(t, x) → x→±∞0 (134) VCDSO m− (x) = VCDSO m+ (x) 1{x0} (135) VCDSO(Te , x) = VCDS(Te , x, Te + Tt ; K) + 1{x0} (136) For CDM, VCDSO(t, x) is governed by eq. (51) with ˆc = 0, supplied with the follow-ing conditions: VCDSO(t,0) = 0, VCDSO(t, x) → x→∞0 (137) VCDSO(Te , x) = VCDS(Te , x, Te + Tt ; K) + (138) 4.4 Equity put option In our model, we can value European style options on the firm’s equity defined by eq. (20). In the context of studying credit products, the value of the equity put option is themost relevant one, since such options provide protection against the depreciation of the stock price and can be used for hedging against the default event. For DDM, the value function of V P (t, x) solves eq. (36) with c = 0, supplied with the following conditions: V P (t, x) → x→−∞ D(t, T)K, V P (t, x) → x→∞0 (139) V P m− (x) = V P m+ (x) 1{x0} + D (tm, T) K1{x≤0} (140) V P (T, x) = K − l (T) (e x − 1) + 1{x0} + K1{x≤0} (141) For CDM, V P (t, x) solves eq. (51) with ˆc (t, x) = −Î (t) Z(x) (t, x) (142)
  • 120. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 429 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 429 Z(x) (t, x) = D (t, T) KH(Ì − x) , DNJs D (t, T) Ke−Ìx ENJs (143) and the following conditions: V P (t, 0) = D(t, T)K, V P (t, x) → x→∞0 (144) V P (T, x) = K − l (T) (e x − 1) + (145) We note that, in this model, put-call parity for European options should be expressed in terms of defaultable forward contracts. Since, in general, we have to solve the pricing problem numerically, American style options can be handled along similar lines with little additional effort. 4.5 First-to-default swap An FTDS references a basket of RNs. Similarly to a regular CDS, PB of an FTDS pays PS a periodic coupon up to the first default event of any of RNs, or the swap’s maturity, whichever comes first; in return, PS compensates PB for the loss caused by the first default in the basket. The market of FTDSs is relatively liquid with a typical basket size of five underlying names. In this chapter we consider FTDSs referencing just two underlying names. The premium leg and the default leg of a FTDS are structured by analogy to the single-name CDS. For brevity we consider only CDM. To compute the present value VF TDS(t, x1, x2, T) for PB of a FTDS, we have to solve eq. (73) with ˆc (t, x1, x2) of the form: ˆc (t, x1, x2) = c − Î{1} (t) Z(x1) (x1) − Î{2} (t) Z(x2) (x2) (146) −Î{1,2} (t) Z(x1,x2) −,+ (x1, x2) + Z(x1,x2) −,− (x1, x2) + Z(x1,x2) +,− (x1, x2) Z(x1,x2) −,+ (x1, x2) = Z(x1) (x1) (147) Z(x1,x2) −,− (x1, x2) = 1 2 Z(x1) (x1) + Z(x2) (x2) Z(x1,x2) +,− (x1, x2) = Z(x2) (x2) where Z(xi ) (xi ) are given by eq. (130). Here we assume that in case of simultaneous default of both RNs, PB receives the notional minus their average recovery. The corresponding boundary and terminal conditions are VF TDS(t, 0, x2, T) = 1 − R1, VF TDS(t, x1, 0, T) = 1 − R2 (148) VF TDS(t, x1, x2, T) → xi→∞ VCDS(t, x3−i , T) (149) VF TDS(T, x1, x2, T) = 0 (150)
  • 121. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 430 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 430 a. lipton a. sepp The market practice is to quote the spread on a FTDS by using the Gaussian copula with specified pair-wise correlation, Ò, between default times of RNs (see, for example, Li 2000 and Hull, Nelkin, and White 2004). Thus, we can calibrate the model correlation parameter to FTDS spreads observed in the market. 4.6 Credit default swap with counterparty risk 4.6.1 Credit value adjustment First, we consider a CDS contract sold by a risky PS to a non-risky PB. We denote by Ù1 the default time of RN and by Ù2 the default time of PS. We assume that this CDS provides protection up to time T and its coupon is c .We also assume that the recovery rate of RN is R1 and of PS is R2. We denote by ˜V CDS(t , T) the value of the CDS contract with coupon c maturing ˜at time V T conditional on PS defaulting at time t.We make the following assumptions about the recovery value of the CDS given PS default at time Ù2: if CDS (t , T) 0, PB pays the full amount of −˜V CDS (t , T) to PS; if ˜V CDS (t , T) 0, PB receives only a fraction R2 of ˜V CDS (t , T). Thus, CVA for PB, VCV A P B (t, T), is defined as the expected maximal potential loss due to the PS default: VCV A P B (t, T) = EQt T t D(t, t)(1 − R2) ˜V CDS t , T + dt (151) Accordingly, to value CVA we need to know the survival probability Q (t , t) for RN conditional on PS default at time t. In this context, Pykhtin and Zhu (2006) and Misirpashaev (2008) applied the Gaussian copula model, while (Blanchet-Scalliet and Patras (2008) applied a bivariate lognormal structural model to calculate the relevant quantity. Similarly, for a CDS contract sold by a non-risky PS to a risky PB we have the following expression for CVA for PS: VCV A P S (t, T) = EQt T t D(t, t)(1 − R3) −˜V CDS t , T + dt (152) where R3 is the recovery rate for PB. How to calculate CVA when both PS and PB are risky is not completely clear as of this writing. 4.6.2 Credit value adjustment in the structural framework We start with the risky PS case and denote by x1 the driver for the RN’s value and by x2 the driver for the PS’s value. In the context of the structural default model, the 2D plane is divided into four quadrants as follows: (A) R2 +,+, where both RN and PS survive; (B) R2 −,+, where RN
  • 122. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 431 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 431 defaults and PS survives; (C) R2 −,−, where both the reference name and the coun-terparty default; (D) R2 +,−, where the reference name survives while the counterparty defaults. In R2 −,+ CVA is set zero, because PS is able to pay the required amount to PB. In R2 −,− CVA is set to the fraction of the payout which is lost due to the counterparty default, (1 − R1e x1) (1 − R2e x2 ). In R2 +,− CVA is set to (1 − R2e x2 ) VCDS(t, x1, T) +, where VCDS(t, x1, T) is the value of the CDS on RN at time t and state x1, because the CDS protection is lost following PS default. The value of CVA is computed as the solution to a 2D problem with given rebates in regions R2 −,+, R2 −,−, and R2 +,−. For DDM, the value of CVA, VCV A P B (t, x1, x2, T), satisfies eq. (66) and the following conditions VCV A P B (t, x1, x2, T) → x1→−∞ (1 − R1e x1)(1 − R2e x2 )1{x2≤0} (153) VCV A P B (t, x1, x2, T) → x1→∞ 0 VCV A P B (t, x1, x2, T) → x2→−∞ (1 − R2e x2 ) VCDS(t, x1, T) + VCV A P B (t, x1, x2, T) → x2→∞ 0 VCV A P B,m− (x1, x2) = VCV A P B,m+(x1, x2)1{x10,x20} (154) +(1 − R1e x1)(1 − R2e x2 )1{x1≤0,x2≤0} +(1 − R2e x2 ) VCDS(t, x1, T) + 1{x10,x2≤0} VCV A P B (T, x1, x2, T) = 0 (155) where VCDS(t, x1, T) is the value of the non-risky CDS computed by solving the corresponding 1D problem. For CDM, we have to solve eq. (73) with ˆc (t, x1, x2) of the form: ˆc (t, x1, x2) = −Î{2} (t) Z(x2) (t, x1, x2) (156) −Î{1,2} (t) Z(x1,x2) −,− (t, x1, x2) + Z(x1,x2) +,− (t, x1, x2) where Z(x2) (t, x1, x2) = + Z(x2) (x2) (157) VCDS(t, x1, T) Z(x1,x2) −,− (t, x1, x2) = Z(x1) (x1) Z(x2) (x2) Z(x1,x2) +,− (t, x1, x2) = κ (t, x1) Z(x2) (x2) Z(xi ) (xi ) are given by eq. (130), and κ (t, x1) = H(x1 − Ì1) VCDS(t, x1 − Ì1, T) + DNJs Ì1 0− x1 + eÌ1 j1d j1 ENJs VCDS(t, x1 + j1, T) (158)
  • 123. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 432 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 432 a. lipton a. sepp The corresponding boundary and final conditions are VCV A P B (t, 0, x2, T) = 0, VCV A P B (t, x1, x2, T) → x1→∞0 (159) VCV A P B (t, x1, 0, T) = (1 − R2) VCDS(t, x1, T) + VCV A P B (t, x1, x2, T) → x2→∞ 0 VCV A P B (T, x1, x2, T) = 0 (160) For risky PB, the formulation is similar and we leave it to the reader. 5 One-dimensional problem ................................................................................................................................................ 5.1 Analytical solution In this section we derive some analytic solutions for jump-diffusion dynamics with ENJs. Unfortunately, similar solutions for DNJs are not readily available. Results presented in this section rely on certain exceptional features of the exponential dis-tribution and do not extend to other jump distributions. In this section, we assume constant model parameters, CDM, and restrict ourselves to ENJs. In more general cases, we need to solve the corresponding problems directly. Analytical results can serve as a useful tool for testing the accuracy of numerical calculations needed for less restrictive cases. 5.1.1 Green’s function Due to the timehomogeneity of the problem under consideration, the Green’s function G(t, x, T, X) depends on Ù = T − t rather than on t, T separately, so that we can represent it as follows: G (t, x, T, X) = √(Ù, x, X) (161) where √(Ù, x, X) solves the following problem: √Ù (Ù, x, X) − L(X)†√(Ù, x, X) = 0 (162) √(Ù, x, 0) = 0, √(Ù, x, X) → X→∞0 (163) √(0, x, X) = δ(X − x) (164) The Laplace transform of √(Ù, x, X) with respect to Ù √(Ù, x, X) →√ (p, x, X) (165)
  • 124. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 433 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 433 solves the following problem: p√ (p, x, X) − L(X)†√ (p, x, X) = δ (X − x) (166) √ (p, x, 0) = 0, √ (p, x, X) → X→∞0 (167) The corresponding forward characteristic equation is given by: 1 2 Û2¯2 − ϯ − (Î + p) + ÎÌ −¯ + Ì = 0 (168) This equation has three roots, which, to facilitate comparison with earlier work, we denote by −¯j , j = 1, 2, 3. It is easy to show that these roots can be ordered in such a way that ¯1 −Ì ¯2 0 ¯3. Hence, the overall solution has the form: √ (p, x, X) = ⎧⎨ ⎩ C3e−¯3(X−x), X ≥ x 3! j=1 Dj e−¯j (X−x), 0 X ≤ x (169) where Di = − 2 Û2 (Ì + ¯i ) , i = 1,2 (170) (¯i − ¯3−i) (¯i − ¯3) D3 = −e(¯1−¯3)xD1 − e(¯2−¯3)xD2, C3 = D1 + D2 + D3 The inverse Laplace transform of √ (p, x, X) yields √(Ù, x, X). A review of relevant algorithms can be found in Abate, Choudhury, and Whitt (1999). Without jumps, all the above formulas can be calculated explicitly. Specifically, method of images yields: √(Ù, x, X) = e−ˇ/8−(X−x)/2 √ ˇ n X − √ x ˇ − n X√+ x ˇ (171) where ˇ = Û2Ù. 5.1.2 Survival probability By using eqs. (112), (169) we compute the Laplace-transformed survival probability as follows: Q(x) (Ù, x) → ˆQ (x) (p, x) (172) ˆQ (x) (p, x) = ∞ 0 √ (p, x, X)dX (173) = ∞ x C3e−¯3(X−x)dX + 3 j=1 x 0 Dj e−¯j (X−x)dX = 2 j=0 E j e¯j x
  • 125. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 434 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 434 a. lipton a. sepp where ¯0 = 0, E0 = 1 p , E1 = (¯1 + Ì) ¯2 (¯1 − ¯2) Ìp , E2 = (¯2 + Ì) ¯1 (¯2 − ¯1) Ìp (174) This result was first obtained by Lipton (2002b). The default time density can be defined as follows: q(Ù, x) = −∂Q(x)(Ù, x) ∂Ù (175) Using eq. (112) we obtain: q(Ù, x) = − ∞ 0 ∂√(Ù, x, X) ∂Ù dX = g (Ù, x) + f (Ù, x) (176) where g (Ù, x) is the probability density of hitting the barrier: g (Ù, x) = Û2 2 ∂√(Ù, x, X) ∂X X=0 (177) and f (Ù, x) is the probability of the overshoot: f (Ù, x) = Î ∞ 0 −X −∞ ( j )d j √(Ù, x, X)dX (178) Formula (178) is generic and can be used for arbitrary jump size distributions. For ENJs, we obtain: f (Ù, x) = Î ∞ 0 e−ÌX√(Ù, x, X)dX (179) Using eq. (169), the Laplace-transformed default time density can be represented as: ˆq (p, x) = ˆg (p, x) + ˆ f (p, x) (180) where ˆg (p, x) = (Ì + ¯2)e¯2x − (Ì + ¯1)e¯1x ¯2 − ¯1 (181) and ˆ f (p, x) = 2Î e¯2x − e¯1x Û2(¯2 − ¯1)(Ì + ¯3) (182) Alternatively, by taking the Laplace transform of eq. (175) and using eq. (173), we obtain: ˆq (p, x) = (¯1 + Ì) ¯2e¯1x (¯2 − ¯1) Ì + (¯2 + Ì) ¯1e¯2x (¯1 − ¯2) Ì (183) Straightforward but tedious algebra shows that expressions (180)–(182) and (183) are in agreement.
  • 126. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 435 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 435 Without jumps, straightforward calculation yields Q(x) (Ù, x) = N √x ˇ − √ ˇ 2 − e xN −√x ˇ − √ ˇ 2 (184) = e−ˇ/8+x/2 P √x ˇ ,− √ ˇ 2 − P −√x ˇ ,− √ ˇ 2 and, q(Ù, x) = g (Ù, x) = x Ù √ ˇ n √x ˇ − √ ˇ 2 , f (Ù, x) = 0 (185) 5.1.3 Credit default swap We use the general formula (124) together with eq. (176), and express the present value VCDS(Ù, x) of a CDS contract with coupon c as: VCDS(Ù, x) = −c Ù 0 Q(x)(Ù e−r Ù , x)dÙ (186) +(1 − R) Ù 0 g (Ù e−r Ù , x)dÙ + 1 − R Ì 1 + Ì Ù 0 f (Ù e−r Ù , x)dÙ By using eqs. (173), (181), (182), we can compute the value of the CDS via the inverse Laplace transform. Without jumps VCDS(Ù, x) can be found explicitly. The annuity leg can be repre-sented in the form A (Ù, x) = 1 r 1 − e−r Ù Q(x) (Ù, x) + e−ˇ/8+x/2 P −√x ˇ , √ ˇ 2 „ + P −√x ˇ √ ˇ 2 ,−„ (187) where „ =
  • 127. 8r/Û2 + 1, while the protection leg can be represented as follows P (Ù, x) = (1 − R) 1 − e−r ÙQ(x) (Ù, x) − r A(Ù, x) (188) Accordingly, VCDS(Ù, x) = (1 − R) 1 − e−r ÙQ(x) (Ù, x) − ((1 − R) r + c ) A (Ù, x) (189) 5.1.4 Credit default swap option In the time-homogeneous setting of the present section, we can represent the price of a CDSO as follows VCDSO(Ùe , x) = e−r Ùe X∗ 0 √(Ùe , x, X) VCDS(Ùt , X)dX (190) where X∗ is chosen in such a way that VCDS(Ùt , X∗) = 0. We can use our previous results to evaluate this expression via the Laplace transform. As before, without jumps VCDSO can be evaluated explicitly.
  • 128. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 436 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 436 a. lipton a. sepp 5.1.5 Equity put option We use eq. (139) and represent the value of the put option with strike K and maturity T as follows: V P (Ù, Ó, T) = e−r Ù V P 0 (Ù, Ó, T) + K 1 − Q(x) (Ù, Ó) (191) The Laplace transform of V P 0 (Ù, Ó, T) is given by ˆV P 0 (p, Ó, T) = ∞ 0 K − l (T) e X − 1 + ˆ√ (p, Ó, X)dX (192) Straightforward calculation yields: ˆV P 0 (p, Ó, T) = l (T) 3 j=1 Dj e¯j Ó ek(T) − e(1−¯j )k(T) ¯j + 1 − e(1−¯j )k(T) 1 − ¯j (193) for out-of-the-money puts with Ó ≥ k (T), and ˆV P 0 (p, Ó, T) = l (T) ⎧⎨ 3 ⎩ j=1 Dj e¯j Ó ek(T) − ek(T)−¯j Ó ¯j + 1 − e(1−¯j )Ó 1 − ¯j (194) +C3e¯3Ó ek(T)−¯3Ó − e(1−¯3)k(T) ¯3 + e(1−¯3)Ó − e(1−¯3)k(T) 1 − ¯3 for in-the-money puts with Ó k (T). Here k (T) = ln((K + l (T)) /l (T)). Without jumps, we can find V P 0 (Ù, Ó, T), and hence the price of a put option, explicitly: V P 0 (Ù, Ó, T) = l (T)e−ˇ/8+Ó/2 ek(T)/2 P k (T√) − Ó ˇ , √ ˇ 2 − P k (T√) + Ó ˇ , √ ˇ 2 (195) −P k (T√) − Ó ˇ ,− √ ˇ 2 + P k (T√) + Ó ˇ ,− √ ˇ 2 # −ek(T) P −√Ó ˇ , √ ˇ 2 − P √Ó ˇ , √ ˇ 2 # +P −√Ó ˇ ,− √ ˇ 2 − P √Ó ˇ ,− √ ˇ 2 $ 5.1.6 Example In Figure 12.1 we illustrate our findings. We use the following set of parameters: a(0) = 200, l (0) = 160, s (0) = 40, Ó = 0.22, r = Ê = 0, Û = 0.05, Î = 0.03, Ì = 1/Ó.We compare results obtained for the jump-diffusion model with the ones obtained for the diffu-sion model the ‘equivalent’ diffusion volatility Ûdiff specified by Ûdiff =
  • 130. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 437 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 437 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 T Survival Probability s(T), Jump-diffusion s(T), Diffusion 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 T CDS spread, bp s(T), Jump-diffusion s(T), Diffusion 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% K/S CDS Implied Volatility JD D 210% 170% 130% 90% 50% 10% K/S Equity Implied Volatility JD, T = 1m D, T = 1m JD, T = 6m D, T = 6m JD, T = 12m D, T = 12m 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% figure 12.1 The model implied survival probabilities for 1y ≤ T ≤ 10y (top lhs); CDS spreads for 1y ≤ T ≤ 10y (top rhs); volatility skew for CDSO (bottom lhs); volatility skew for put options with T = 1m, 6m, 12m (bottom rhs). Ûdiff = 0.074 for the chosen model parameters. First, we show the term structure of the implied spread generated by the jump-diffusion and diffusionmodels. We see that, unlike the diffusionmodel, the jump-diffusionmodel implies a non-zero probability of default in the short term, so that its implied spread is consistent with the one observed in the market. If needed, we can produce different shapes of the CDS curve by using the term structure of the model intensity parameter Î. Second, we show the model implied volatility surface for put options with maturity of 0.5Y.We see that the jump-diffusion model generates the implied volatility skew that is steeper that the diffusion model, so that, in general, it can fit themarket implied skewmore easily. An interesting discussion of the equity volatility skew in the structural framework can be found in Hull, Nelkin, and White, (2004/05). 5.2 Asymptotic solution In this section, we derive an asymptotic expansion for the Green’s function-solving problem (63) assuming that the jump-intensity parameter Î is small. More details of the derivation (which is far from trivial) and its extensions will be given elsewhere. We introduce a new function ˜√ (Ù, x, X) such that: √(Ù, x, X) = exp − Ï2 2Û2 + Î Ù + Ï Û2 (X − x) ˜ √(Ù, x, X) (196)
  • 131. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 438 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 438 a. lipton a. sepp The modified Green’s function solves the following propagation problem on the posi-tive semi-axis: Ù(Ù, x, X) − ˜ L(X)† ˜ √(Ù, x, X) = 0 (197) ˜√ ˜√ (Ù, x, 0) = 0, ˜ √(Ù, x, X) → X→∞0 (198) ˜√ (0, x, X) = δ(X − x) (199) where ˜ L(x)†g (x) = 1 2 Û2gxx (x) + ÎÌ 0 −∞ g (x − j )eÌ j d j (200) and Ì = Ì − Ï/Û2. We assume that Î 1 and represent ˜ √(Ù, x, X)as follows: (0)(Ù, x, X) + Θ√ ˜ √(Ù, x, X) = ˜√ (1)(Ù, x, X) + . . . (201) (0)(Ù, x, X) solves the following problem: The zero-order term ˜√ (0) Ù (Ù, x, X) − 1 ˜√ 2 (0) XX(Ù, x, X) = 0 (202) Û2 ˜√ (0)(Ù, x, 0) = 0, ˜√ ˜√ (0)(Ù, x, X) → X→∞0 (203) (0)(0, x, X) = δ(X − x) (204) ˜√ It is wellknown that it can be written as follows: ˜√ (0)(Ù, x, X) = √1 ˇ n X√− x ˇ − n X√+ x ˇ (205) (1)(Ù, x, X) solves the following problem: The first-order term ˜√ (1) Ù (Ù, x, X) − 1 ˜√ 2 (1) XX(Ù, x, X) = ƒ(Ù, x, X) (206) Û2 ˜√ (1)(Ù, x, 0) = 0, ˜√ ˜√ (1)(Ù, x, X) → X→∞0 (207) (1)(0, x, X) = 0 (208) ˜√ where ƒ(Ù, x, X) = Ì 0 −∞ ˜√ (0)(Ù, x, X − j )eÌ j d j (209) = ÌP −X√− x ˇ √ ˇ ,−Ì − ÌP −X√+ x ˇ √ ˇ ,−Ì and P (a, b) is defined by eq. (5). We use Duhamel’s principle and represent √(1)(Ù, x, X) as follows:
  • 132. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 439 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 439 (1)(Ù, x, X) = ˜√ Ù 0 ∞ 0 (0)(Ù − Ù ˜√ , x, X − X)ƒ(Ù , x, X)dXdÙ (210) Fairly involved algebra yields: (1)(Ù, x, X) = ˜√ Ì ÌÛ2 ÌˇP −X − √ x ˇ √ ˇ ,−Ì (211) +XP −X√+ x ˇ √ ˇ ,−Ì − (X − Ìˇ)P −X√+ x ˇ √ ˇ , Ì −(X + Ìˇ)e−ÌxP −√X ˇ √ ˇ ,−Ì + (X − Ìˇ)e−ÌxP −√X ˇ √ ˇ , Ì For DNJs we can derive a similar expression: (1)(Ù, x, X) = ˜√ eÏÌ/Û2 Û2 ⎧⎪⎪⎪⎨ ⎪⎪⎪⎩ X N −X−√x+Ì ˇ − N −X√+x+Ì ˇ x Ì X N −X+√x−Ì ˇ − N −X√+x+Ì ˇ √ ˇ + n X−√x+Ì ˇ − n X+√x−Ì ˇ x ≥ Ì (212) 5.3 Numerical solution In this section we describe several complementary numerical methods for solving the calibration and pricing problems in 1D. Specifically, we present theMC, FFT, and FD-based methods. The MC method, due to its generic nature, is easily applicable to the problem at hand, particularly for DDM. However, it comes with the usual drawbacks and is to be avoided whenever possible. The FFT method is well suited to solving problems with DDM, however it has several well-known disadvantages including the need for uniform grids with large number of steps, and complicated treatment of aliasing effects. In our opinion, the FD method is the most powerful of the three. It can be used for both DDM and CDM. The key difficulty in applying the FD method for jumpdiffusions is the treatment of the integral term. The direct integrationmethod (see, for example, Cont and Tankov 2004; Cont and Voltchkova 2005) has a complexity of O(N2) operations per time step, where N is the spatial grid size. To obviate this difficulty we can use the FFT method to compute the convolution term with a com-plexity of O(N log N), see (Andersen and Andreasen 2000; d’Halluin, Forsyth, and Vetzal 2005 among others), however, this approach shares the disadvantages of the conventional FFT method. It turns out that for DNJs and ENJs one can compute the integral term explicitly with a complexity of O(N) (Lipton 2003; Carr and Mayo 2007; Lipton, Song, and Lee 2007; Toivanen 2008) Let us briefly compare the FFT and FD-based methods. In 1D, the complexity of the FFT method is O(N log N) per each time step, so that the overall complexity with M default monitoring is O(MNlog N). The complexity of the FD method with explicit treatment of the integral term and L time steps is O(LN) (we note that if the set of
  • 133. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 440 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 440 a. lipton a. sepp monitoring times is sparse, we would need to add extra time steps to improve accuracy of the FD method). Thus, the overall competitiveness of the methods depends on the number of time steps needed to achieve the desired accuracy. In the case of DDM, the value function is not continuous at the barrier, so that both the FFT and FD-based methods are expected to be only first-order accurate in space, which is indeed confirmed by our numerical experiments. In the case of CDM, the FD-based method is expected to have second-order accuracy in space; while the FFT-based method cannot easily be applied in this case. 5.3.1 Monte Carlo method We assume DDM and describe the corresponding MC simulations. There are two methods for the simulation of the 1D dynamics. The firstmethod is based on the direct integration of dynamics (17): ƒxm ≡ x(tm) − x(tm−1) = Ïm + ÛmÂm + nm k=1 jk (213) where Âm are standard independent normals, jk are independent variables with PDF ( j ), nm = N(tm) − N(tm−1) is the Poisson random variable with intensity Îm, and x(t0) = Ó. Here Ïm = tm tm−1 Ï(t)dt , Ûm = tm tm−1 Û2(t)dt, Îm = tm tm−1 Î(t)dt (214) The second method is based on the simulation of the increment ƒxm by the inver-sion of the PDF corresponding to the exact Green’s function. We note that in the presence of jumps the Green’s function can be represented as follows: G(ƒtm, ƒxm) = ∞ k=0 wk÷k(Ë) (215) where ƒtm = tm − tm−1 and wk is the probability of exactly k jumps for the Poisson distribution with intensity Îm: wk = e−Îm(Îm)k k! , k = 0, 1, . . . (216) and ÷0(Ë) = 1 Ûm n(Ë) ÷1(Ë) = 1 Ûm n Ë + Ì Ûm DNJs ÷k(Ë) = 1 Ûm n Ë + kÌ Ûm
  • 134. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 441 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 441 ÷0(Ë) = 1 Ûm n(Ë) ÷1(Ë) = ÌP(−Ë,−Û−) ENJs ÷k(Ë) = Û−(−(Ë+Û−)÷k−1(Ë)+Û−÷k−2(Ë)) k−1 where Ë = (ƒxm − Ïm)/Ûm, Û− = ÌÛm. Typically, we can restrict ourselves to the com-bination of the first two terms. Once the evolution of the driver x is described, the valuation can be performed in the standard fashion. 5.3.2 Fast Fourier Transform method In this section we show how to use the FFT method for valuing credit products in 1D. As we mentioned earlier, this method is not well suited to the case of CDM, so we only apply it in the case of DDM. The advantage of thismethod is that its implementation is relatively easy and it can be applied for relatively wide class of jump-size distributions. Its disadvantages are the need for a dense uniform grid, which has to be wide enough in order to avoid aliasing effects becoming important. The Green’s function To start with, we consider the unbounded Green’s function governed by eqs. (56), (57), (59). We emphasize that the coefficients of the infinitessimal generator are spatially independent, so that the Green’s function depends on X − x rather than X and x separately: G(t, x, T, X) ≡ ’(t, T, Y) (217) where Y = X − x. Due to this fact, the Fourier transform of ’ can be found explicitly: ˆ ’(t, T, k) = ∞ −∞ eikY’(t, T, Y)dY = e− T t ¯(t ,k)dt (218) where k is the transform variable, and ¯(t, k) is the characteristic exponent: ¯(t, k) = 1 2 Û2(t)k2 − iÏ (t) k − Î(t)((k) − 1) (219) with the function (k) given by: (k) = 0 −∞ eik j( j )d j = e−ikÌ, DNJs Ì Ì+ik , ENJs (220) Given ˆ ’ we can compute the Green’s function ’ via the inverse Fourier transform as follows: ’(t, T, Y) = 1 2 ∞ −∞ e−ikY ˆ ’(t, T, k)dk (221)
  • 135. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 442 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 442 a. lipton a. sepp When parameters are time independent we have ˆ ’(t, T, k) = e−Ù¯(k) (222) ¯ (k) = 1 2 Û2k2 − iÏk − Î((k) − 1) where Ù = T − t. This formula can be trivially generalized to the case of piecewise constant parameters but we don’t present the corresponding expression here since we are only interested in time intervals between observation times where parameters are constant by construction. Backward problem We start by considering the backward problem (36), (37) for the value function V(t, x) on the time interval (tm−1, tm). The value function V(m−1)+(x) can be represented as follows: V(m−1)+(x) = D (tm−1, tm) ∞ −∞ Vm− (X) ’(tm−1, tm, X − x)dX (223) For convenience, we introduce the inverse Fourier transform of Vm− (x): » Vm− (k) = 1 2 ∞ −∞ e−ikxVm− (x) dx (224) Here we assume that Vm− is regularized as appropriate, so that the above integral converges. By applying the Fourier transformed density function (218) and exchanging the integration order, we obtain: V(t(m−1)+, x) (225) = D (tm−1, tm) ∞ −∞ Vm− (X) 1 2 ∞ −∞ e−ik(X−x)ˆ ’(tm−1, tm, k)dk dX = D (tm−1, tm) ∞ −∞ eikx 1 2 ∞ −∞ e−ikXVm− (X)dX ˆ ’(tm−1, tm, k)dk = D (tm−1, tm) ∞ −∞ eikx » Vm− (k) ˆ ’(tm−1, tm, k)dk Variants of formula (225) for option pricing in 1D case were proposed and analysed by Carr and Madan (1999); Lewis (2001); Lipton (2001, 2002a), among others. We can apply the above formula repeatedly for DDM at times {tdm }m=1,...,M. Let today’s time be t0 = 0. We represent the following backward induction algorithm based on the recurrent application of eq. (225): (a) Set m = M and apply the terminal condition by vM(x) = v(x); (b) Compute the auxiliary function V(m−1)+(x) by virtue of eq. (225); (c) Evaluate V(m−1)− by applying the projection operator–{V (x)} as needed V(m−1)−(x) = – V(m−1)+(x) (226) (d) Repeat steps (b), (c) until m = 1, when V(0, Ó) is calculated and the recursion is stopped. For financial instruments of interest, explicit expressions for v,–{.} are given
  • 136. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 443 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 443 in section 4. To calculate the survival probability, we run the above scheme without discounting. To apply the above algorithm in practice, we restrict the value function V(t, x) and the payoff function v(x) to the uniform spatial grid {x0, . . . , xN} with the uniform step ƒx, where x0 is a large negative number and xN is a large positive number, and N = 2n − 1, which is required for the standard FFT algorithm to be efficient (but is not necessary in general). For the sake of computational efficiency, the spatial grid is defined in such a way that xn0 = 0, and Ó = xnÓ, for some n0, nÓ, respectively. The transformed density function ˆ ’(t, T, k) is defined on the discrete Fourier grid {k0, . . . , kN} with uniform step ƒk, such that ƒxƒk = 2/2n, and kn = 2(n − N/2) Nƒx (227) The discretized version of eq. (225) can be written as V(m−1)+(x) = D (tm−1, tm) fft ifft(Vm− (x)) ˆ ’(tm−1, tm, k) (228) where denotes element-wise multiplication Forward problem Similarly, we consider the forward problem for the Green’s function G(T, X) gov-erned by eqs. (56), (57) on the time interval (tm−1, tm). This function can be written as follows: Gm−(X) = ∞ −∞ G(m−1)+(x)’(tm−1, tm, X − x)dx (229) By analogy with eq. (225), we obtain: Gm−(X) = ∞ −∞ G(m−1)+(x) 1 2 ∞ −∞ e−ik(X−x) ’(tm−1, tm, k)dk dx (230) = 1 2 ∞ −∞ e−ikX ∞ −∞ eikxG(m−1)+(x)dx ’(tm−1, tm, k)dk = 1 2 ∞ −∞ e−ikX ˆG(m−1)+(k) ˆ ’(tm−1, tm, k)dk We note that the expression in the curly brackets can be viewed as the direct Fourier transform of the initial value function G(m−1)+(x). Thus, the discrete version of eq. (230) can be represented by analogy to eq. (228): Gm−(X) = ifft fft(G(m−1)+(X)) ’ (tm−1, tm, k) (231) For calibration purposes it is important to solve the problem for the survival probability Q(x)(t, x, T) via forward induction. For this purpose we present forward induction with time stepping based on the recursive application of eq. (231) as follows: (a) Set m = 1 and specify the initial condition for G as a Kronecker’s delta function
  • 137. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 444 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 444 a. lipton a. sepp centred at n0: G (t0, X) = g (Xn) = δn,nÓ (232) (b) Given the value of G at time t(m−1)+, G(m−1)+(X), apply the forward convolution (231); (c) Set to zero the value function Gm+(X) outside the barrier region: Gm+(X) = Gm−(X)1{X0} (233) (d) Evaluate the current value of the survival probability Q(x)(0, Ó, tm) by computing the sum over the discrete spatial grid: Q(x)(0, Ó, tm) = N n=n0 Gm+(xn) (234) (e) Repeat steps (b), (c) until m = M, then stop the recursion. Implementation details When implementing the FFT method with time stepping we need to consider the following important aspects: periodicity, finiteness, and convergence. The applicability of FFT is based on the assumption that the relevant functions are periodic. If it is not the case, so-called aliasing effects tend to spoil the solution near the end points of the computational domain. We first notice that, provided the spatial grid is large enough, the periodicity is not an issue for the computation of the Green’s function since asymptotically it approaches zero. For the backward recursion, we can deal with aliasing effects by modifying the solution near the edges of the grid. We note that near the edges of the grid the second derivative of the value function should gradually approach zero (from above for convex payoffs, from below for concave ones). However aliasing effects destroy the convexity/concavity of the corresponding solution. To rectify this fact, we alter the value function by detecting remote areas where its convexity/concavity is violated, and linearly extrapolating the function there, thus achieving zero convexity/concavity in these regions. Formulas (225) and (230) are based on the requirement that the Fourier transform of the payoff function exists. This requirement can be satisfied by applying a damping factor as needed. For the FFT method, this requirement is not too restrictive since the calculations are performed in a finite domain. In our experiments, we have found no advantage in using damping. The convergence of the integral formulas (225) and (230) is affected by the rate of decay of the transformed Green’s function (218) for large k. Asymptotically, using eq. (219) we obtain the following result: lim |k|→±∞ = e−12 ’(tm−1, tm, k) ÙmÛ2k2 (235) where Ùm = tm − tm−1.Typically, the volatility is small, Û ≈ 0.01, and Ùm ≈ 0.25y, so that the upper bound for k, kN = /2ƒx needs to be large enough (kN ∼ 1000). In
  • 138. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 445 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 445 our experiments, we have found that for typical model parameters it is safe to choose N = 212 − 1, ƒx ∼ 10−4. 5.3.3 Finite difference method Backward equation We start with the backward problem for the value function V(t, x). For DDM, this function is solving problem (43) onR1, while for CDMthis function is solving a similar problem on R1 +. For brevity, we consider only the latter case. We introduce a discrete spatial grid of size N + 1, {x0, x1, . . . , xN−1, xN}, where x0 = 0; and xN is a large positive number, and a discrete time grid of size L, {t0, t1, . . . , tL }, where t0 = 0 and tL = T, in such a way that the set of times when parameters jump, and other special times, if any, belong to the grid. The values V(tl , xn) are denoted by Vl ,n, and similarly for other relevant quantities. For fixed l we use the notation
  • 139. V l, and think of
  • 140. V l as an (N + 1)-component vector.We discretize the evolution operator (54) at time tl : L(x) (tl ) =⇒L (x) l (236) l +J D(x)(tl) + J (x)(tl) =⇒ D(x) (x) l where L (x) l , D(x) l , J (x) l are (N + 1) × (N + 1) matrices with elements L (x) l ,n,n , D(x) l ,n,n , J (x) l ,n,n . As usual,D(x) l is a tridiagonalmatrix. Typically the diffusion term is small compared to the advection and jump terms, so that an appropriate discretization of the first derivative is necessary for the stability of the numerical scheme, see, for example, d’Halluin, Forsyth, and Vetzal (2005). In general, the matrix J (x) l is not tridiagonal. However, as we shall demonstrate presently, for DNJs and ENJs, the product J (x) l
  • 141. V l can be evaluated in a way which requires only O (N) operations. To this end, we introduce an auxiliary function êl (x) ≡ J (x)V(tl , x) (237) which we intend to treat fully explicitly. For DNJs, we can approximate êl on the grid via the linear interpolation to second order accuracy: ˆl ,n = ˘¯n Vl ,¯n −1 + (1 − ˘¯n )Vl ,¯n , xn ≥ Ì 0, xn Ì (238) where ¯n = min{ j : x j−1 ≤ xn − Ì x j }, ˘¯n = − (xn − Ì) x¯n x¯n − x¯n −1 (239)
  • 142. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 446 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 446 a. lipton a. sepp For ENJs, we choose a small step h, h 0, and write: êl (x + h) = Ì 0 −x−h eÌj V(tl , x + h + j )d j (240) = Ìe−Ìh 0 −x eÌzV(tl , x + z)dz + h 0 eÌzV(tl , x + z)dz = e−Ìhêl (x) + w0(Ì, h)V(tl , x) + w1(Ì, h)V(tl , x + h) + O(h3) where z = h + j, and w0(Ì, h) = 1 − (1 + Ìh) e−Ìh Ìh , w1(Ì, h) = −1 + Ìh + e−Ìh Ìh (241) Accordingly, we obtain a recursive scheme for computing ê(x) to second-order accuracy: êl (x + h) = e−Ìhêl (x) + w0(Ì, h)V(tl , x) + w1(Ì, h)V(tl , x + h) (242) On the grid, we choose hn = xn − xn−1, and represent eq. (242) as follows: êl ,n+1 = e−Ìhn+1êl ,n + w0(Ì, hn+1)Vl ,n + w1(Ì, hn+1)Vl ,n+1 (243) with the initial condition specified by êl ,0 = 0. Thus, by introducing an auxiliary vector
  • 143. ê l = êl ,n we can calculate the matrix product Kl
  • 144. V l with O (N) operations in both cases. To compute the value
  • 145. V l−1 given the value
  • 146. V l , l = 1, . . . , L, we introduce auxiliary l ,
  • 149. V ∗∗,and apply the following scheme:
  • 151. V l + 1 2 ‰tl −→ˆ c l−1 + −→ˆ c l + ‰tl Î(tl )
  • 152. ê l (244) I − ‰tlD(x) l
  • 154. V ∗ l−1 = D (tl−1, tl )
  • 155. V
  • 156. V ∗∗ where ‰tl = tl − tl−1, l = 1, . . . , L, and I is the identity matrix. Thus, we use an explicit scheme to approximate the integral step and compute
  • 158. V l; then we use an implicit scheme to approximate the diffusive step and compute
  • 160. V ∗, 0 and V∗∗ finally, we apply the deterministic discounting. Boundary values V∗∗ N are determined by the boundary conditions. The second implicit step leads to a system of tridiagonal equations which can be solved via O(N) operations. The time-stepping numerical scheme is straightforward. The terminal condition is given by:
  • 161. V L =
  • 162. v (245) The implicit diffusion step in scheme (244) is first-order accurate in time, but it tends to be more stable than the Crank-Nicolson scheme which is typically second-order accurate in time (without the jump part). The explicit treatment of the jump operator is also first-order accurate in time. With an appropriate spatial discretization, the scheme is second-order accurate in the spatial variable. As usual, see, for example,
  • 163. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 447 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi credit value adjustment 447 d’d’Halluin, Forsyth, and Vetzal, (2005), predictor-corrector iteration improves the scheme convergence in both time and space. At each step in time, the scheme with fixed point iterations is applied as follows.We set
  • 164. U 0 =
  • 165. V l + 1 2 ‰tl ˆcl−1 + ˆcl (246) and, for p = 1, 2, . . . , p (typically, it is enough to use two iterations, p = 2) apply the following scheme:
  • 167. U p−1 l (247) 0 + ‰tl Î(tl )
  • 168. ê I − ‰tlD(x) l
  • 169. U p =
  • 170. U ∗ p−1 l =J where
  • 172. U p−1. Provided that the difference ||U p − U p−1|| is small in an appropriate norm, we stop and apply the discounting: Vl−1 = D(tl−1, tl )U p (248) Forward equation For calibration purposes we have to calculate the survival probability forward in time by finding the Green’s function, G(t, x, T, X), defined by eq. (63). By analogy with the backward equation, we use a time-stepping scheme with fixed-point iterations in order to calculate
  • 173. G l = Gl ,n = {G (tl , xn)}.We introduce ¯l (x) ≡ J (x)†G(tl , x) (249) For DNJs, we approximate this function on the grid to second-order accuracy: ¯l ,n = ˘¯n Gl ,¯n −1 + (1 − ˘¯n )Gl ,¯n , xn + Ì ≤ xN Gl ,N, xn + Ì xN (250) where ¯n = min{ j : x j−1 ≤ xn + Ì x j }, ˘¯n = − (xn + Ì) x¯n x¯n − x¯n −1 (251) For ENJs, by analogy with eq. (242), we use the following scheme which is second-order accurate: ¯l ,n−1 = e−Ìhn¯l ,n + w0(Ì, hn)Gl ,n + w1(Ì, hn)Gl ,n−1 (252) where w0 and w1 are defined by eq. (241). The time-stepping numerical scheme is straightforward. The initial condition is given by: G0,n = 2δn,nÓ/ xnÓ+1 − xnÓ−1 (253)
  • 174. where the spatial grid G
  • 175. G in chosen in such a way that x0 = 0 and xnÓ = Ó. To compute the value l given the value l−1, l = 1, . . . , L, we introduce auxiliary vectors
  • 176. ¯ ,
  • 177. G ∗, and apply the following scheme:
  • 178. 978–0–19–954678–7 12-Lipton-c12-drv Lipton-Rennie (Typeset by SPi, Chennai) 448 of 657 September 20, 2010 10:30 OUP UNCORRECTED PROOF – PROOF, 20/9/2010, SPi 448 a. lipton a. sepp 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 X Expansion, lambda=0.03 PDE, lambda=0.03 Expansion, lambda=0.1 PDE, lambda=0.1 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 X Analytic, lambda=0.03 Expansion, lambda=0.03 PDE, lambda=0.03 Analytic, lambda=0.1 Expansion, lambda=0.1 PDE, lambda=0.1 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 figure 12.2 Asymptotic and numerical Green’s functions for DNJs (lhs), and analytical, asymptotic and numerical Green’s functions for ENJs (rhs). The relevant parameters are the same as in Figure 1, T = 10y.
  • 180. G l−1 + ‰tl Î(tl )
  • 181. ¯ l−1 (254) I − ‰tlD(x)† l
  • 182. G l =