Leila Monks' predictions on the future of factual TV and documentaries in the year 2020 as presented at the Australian International Documentary Conference 2014 in Adelaide, Australia.

1. Factual Television
in the year 2020…
Leila Monks
Australian International
Documentary Conference
March 2014

2. 1. How are we watching?
2. What are we watching?
3. Other factors affecting our industry?
Factual TV 2020

3. How are we watching?
• Media consumption via TV has dropped
• Mobile media consumption has increased (thank you
Steve Jobs)

4. Australia (Think TV)
Time spent watching TV
Technology in the home

5. Prediction 1:
Mobile or digital delivery will be premier way of
consuming content.
Factual TV 2020

6. • How we consume media evolves
from a “sit back” to a “lean forward
culture
• Viewer essentially searches for the
content they want to view effectively
cutting out the editorial role of the
broadcaster
• In this sea of available digital content
only the strongest traditional
broadcaster brands will survive
• BBC 1 – strong brand proposition,
ahead of competitors with iplayer –
reserving its spot now in the digital
media landscape of the future
• Personal brands will also play a role
• Jamie Oliver good example – his Food
Tube channel has over 700,000
subscribers
• Owning a “vertical” on YouTube and
building a community of subscribers
• Content going straight from producer
to consumer
• Zig Zag launching “All Time Magic”
channel on YouTube to own the magic
space

7. • YouTube: audience relationship is 1:1 as opposed to
TV which is 1: however many thousands or
millions
• Audience engagement is key to success and
building communities around content
• Launching a YT channel takes investment but can
be done at relatively low cost and is also great way
to test out new talent/formats
• Dynamic environment and potential new revenue
stream
• Red Bull great example of consumer
brand owning a “vertical” on
YouTube and investing heavily in
content
• Synonymous with adrenalin fuelled
programming
• Felix Baumgartner space jump
sponsored by Red Bull live streamed
on YouTube to 8 million viewers
worldwide and also aired on
Discovery
• Huge success for Red Bull and
YouTube

8. Prediction 2:
Only strongest traditional broadcaster brands will
survive alongside celebrity, producer owned and
consumer brands that will all fund, produce and
distribute their own content.
Factual TV 2020

9. • What do you get when you combine video on demand (vod) platforms like
Netflix and social media sites like twitter?
• Hyped up scripted series that EVERYONE is watching e.g.. Breaking Bad
• VOD means you no longer need to worry about missing an episode of your
favourite drama series and viewers “binge view” to catch up with their
friends and join the debate on twitter, Facebook etc.
• Subscription based VOD is a viable business model
• Netflix outbid AMC, HBO, Showtime and other US nets to secure premiere
rights to House of Cards – Netflix Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos ran the
numbers and they indicated that Kevin Spacey would be a hit on the platform
– and they weren’t wrong
• Another edge VOD has over TV – accurate data on their viewers and who is
watching what – content can be specifically targeted
• TV used to be the poor cousin of cinema – not anymore with A-listers queuing
up to be in the next cult drama

10. • Netflix is now turning it’s eye to factual and is planning on
commissioning original programming in this space
• According to some sources Netflix made $200 million out of
Australia last year – unofficially!
• So there is an audience there hungry for this content and this method
of delivery
• Channel Nine is set to launch it’s stand alone VOD service any day
now
• This will offer Australian viewers a package of content for Australian
$15 dollars a month
• Could this be the Australian Netflix?

11. Prediction 3:
VOD platforms will be the premier delivery
platforms for content and eclipse TV as the major
documentary commissioners.
Commissioning decisions will be based on data.
The cult/hype factor of documentary will rise to
the same current level as scripted projects.
Factual TV 2020

12. What are we watching?
• Trend for factual TV in US towards
“reality TV”, character based
programming and scripted shows
• Lots more hybrid type concepts also
being produced for example Raw
TV’s “The Imposter” and Channel 4’s
“Gogglebox”
• Does this mean the death of
documentaries as we know them?

13. • “Reality TV” is essentially extension of the observational documentary genre –
this is not something to be scared of
• It’s great that “reality TV” and character based shows are maintaining audience
interest in this genre - what is the point of making something unless it is
watched by a decent number of people?
• Creativity in the genre is a good thing – producers need to embrace this
• Documentary will always rate and compared to scripted is cheap to produce –
one of Seven Network’s highest rated shows was “The Man with the Biggest
Testicles” (what that tells us about humanity I will leave up to you)
• Character based shows become derivative after a while and the viewers will tire
• However good stories, well told –will always bring in audiences

14. Prediction 4:
Factual TV and documentaries will continue to
reign strong in 2020 with the genre as a whole
becoming even more creative
Factual TV 2020

15. Other Factors?
• Full commissions are becoming rarer and rarer
• Some international markets are booming whilst
others are in decline
• International co-productions are a great way to
raise financing for shows that may otherwise not
get funded
• Traditional co-pro territories: UK, North America,
France, Germany, Australia
• New co-pro territories: China and Brazil
• Producers must have international outlook or
work with someone who does
• Group M Entertainment is the content arm of
major advertising agency Group M in the UK
• Investors in content with over 15 shows
currently in production
• Shows airing on Channel 5 and Channel 4
• Provide 100% of the budget in return for a
share of the IP

16. Prediction 5:
International co-productions will feature heavily in
the programming of the future with new major co-
production territories of China and Brazil
More advertising agencies will invest in content
arms and provide a significant amount of funding
for factual TV and documentaries
Factual TV 2020

17. Factual TV 2020
• Change is over estimated in the short term but under estimated in the long
term
• Viewers won’t suddenly stop watching TV next week or even next year
• But companies need to think about future proofing themselves now – will
they exist in the digital landscape of 2020?
• BBC3 has been axed – that’s prediction 2 manifesting already
• It’s important to build partnerships with the right people to ensure your
company will thrive into 2020 and beyond
• The future for the factual genre is bright – very bright – and it’s the most
creative and forward thinking producers who will capitalise on the never
ending appetite for factual content
• Commissioning Editors – best start looking for another job now
• (joke)
• Hope to see you all in 2020!