Decision ninja Patrice Blanchard
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Bias and heuristics are great ways of saving energy by avoiding to think too much when it is necessary to take a decision. It is important to be aware of them to avoid taking systematically the wrong decision.
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Decision ninja Patrice Blanchard
- 1. DECISION NINJA HOW TO TAKE BAD DECISIONS LIKE A PRO Patrice Blanchard
- 2. Your Decision So what? Consequences You decide, you are responsible. Responsibility There’s no such thing like a free decision.. High stakes Why is decision making so difficult?
- 4. THE QUOTE
- 5. Insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expect different results
- 7. THE PROBLEM
- 8. Anchoring effect Sunk cost Ambiguity Confirmation Interpretation Curse of know- ledge Blind spot Social proofOverconfidence Halo effect THE PROBLEM **Not avaialble for Ninjas A few human features**
- 9. Much Better than average I can manage my car in all circum- stances. 1 Better than Average Others are the cause of accidents.2 Worse than average Look out, I am on the road.3 1. Overconfidence effect Much worse than average I am a danger for the planet.3 What kind of driver are you?
- 10. What is the logic? Original serie: [2 – 4 – 6] [2 – 4 – 6 – 8 - 10] [2 – 4 – 6 – 10 - 16] [2 – 4 – 6 – 10 - 35] 1 2 3 2. Confirmation bias
- 11. What is the logic? Original serie: [2 – 4 – 6 - 10] [2 – 4 – 6 – 8 - 10] [2 – 4 – 6 – 10 - 16] [2 – 4 – 6 – 10 - 35] 1 2 3 2. Confirmation bias
- 12. 3. Interpretation bias You flip a coin for the 11th times. Considering that you got 5 heads and 5 tails before. A. 10% B. 50% C. 90% What is the probability of getting head?
- 13. 3. Interpretation bias You flip a coin for the 11th times. Considering that you got 10 head befor e What is the probability of getting head? A. 10% B. 50% C. 90%
- 14. 3. Interpretation bias You flip a coin for the 11th times. Considering that you got 10 head befor e What is the probability of getting head? A. 10% B. 50% C. 90% Considering that you got 5 heads and 5 tails before. A. 10% B. 50% C. 90%
- 15. 4.Curse of knowledge Could you forget? Once you know…
- 16. Would you go in a restaurant? Busy ? Or empty ? 5. Social proof
- 17. 6. Halo effect Who is the biggest killer? 725.000725.000 475.000475.000 40.00040.000 1010 06061010 100.000100.000
- 18. Agenda Style IPAD Price 7. Anchoring effect Normal value: 999 $ Selling price: 500 $
- 19. When do you stop a project ? 8. Sunk cost
- 20. Agenda Style 9. Ambiguity effect 30 balls in a bag: Black, White and Red. 10 are Red. You can bet 10$ on a color. Which one do you take?
- 21. Much Better than average I can manage my car in all circum- stances. 1 Better than Average Others are the cause of accidents.2 Worse than average Look out, I am on the road.3 10. Blind spot Much worse than average I am a danger for the planet.3 What kind of driver are you?
- 22. A few other human features Accentuation effect Acquiescence bias Acto-obersver assymetry Adaptive bias Affect heuristic Ambiguity effect Anchoring Apophenia Attentional bias Attribute substitution Attribution bias Authority bias Automation bias Availability heuristic Bandwagon effect Barnum effect Base rate fallacy Belief bias Ben Franklin effect Bias blind spot Birthday number effect Bizarreness effect The century of the self Certainty effect Cheerleader effect Choice-supportive bias Clustering illusion Cognitive bias Cognitive distortion Congruence bias Conjunction fallacy Contrast effect Cultural bias Curse of knowledge Data dredging Declinism Denial Denomination effect Depressive realism Disposition effect Distinction bias Dunnin-Krueger effect Duration neglect Egocentric bias Emotional reasoning Empathy gap End-of-history illusion End of the day betting effect Endowment effect Euphoric recall Evidence of absence Exaggeration Experimenter’s regress Extension neglect Extrinsic incentives bias Fading affect bias False consensus effect Familiarity heuristic Framing Framing effect Functional fixedness Fund attribution error Generation effect Halo effect Hard-easy effect Hawthorne's effect Hindsight bias Horn effect Hostile attribution bias Hostile media effect Hast-hand fallacy Hyperbolic discounting Hypo cognition Identifiable victim effect IKEA effect Illusion of asymmetric insight Illusion of control Illusion of external agency Illusion of transparency Illusion of validity Illusory correlation Illusory superiority Illusory truth effect Impact bias Implicit cognition In-group favoritism Inequity aversion Information bias Insensitivity to sample size Interpretive bias Introspection illusion Irrationality John Henry effect Just-world hypothesis Lady Macbeth effect Law of the instrument Less-is-better effect Locus of control Loss aversion Lost in the mall technique Ludic fallacy Magical thinking Mere-exposure effect Mindset Minimization Mistakes were made Money illusion Motivated reasoning Motivated tactician Naive cynicism Naive realism Name-letter effect Negativity bias Neglect of probability Nominative determinism Normalcy bias Nudge theory Omission bias Optimism bias Ostrich effect Othello error Out-group homogeneity Outcome bias Overconfidence effect Over justification effect
- 23. Not done yet Pareidolia Peak-end rule Perceptual psychology Persuasive definition Physycal attractiveness Picture superiority effect Planning fallacy Polyanna principle Positive illusions Positivity effect Positivity offset Precision bias Pseudo-certainty effect Psychological pricing Psychological projection Pygmalion effect Reactive devaluation Recall bias Region beta paradox Regression fallacy Response bias Restraint bias Rhyme-as-reason effect Risk compensation Rozy retrospection Scarcity heuristic Scope neglect Selective omission Selective perception Self-deception Sel-defeating prophecy Self-fulfilling prophecy Self-licensing Self-persuasion Self-propaganda Self-reference effect Self-serving bias Serial position effect Shooting bias Social comparison bias Social facilitation Social influence bias Social perception Spacing effect Spiral of silence Straight and crooked think Sub-additivity effect Subject-expectancy effect Subjective validation Sunk cost Surrogation Survivor bias Telescoping effect Thinking fast and slow Time saving bias Trait ascription bias Transposed letter effect Ultimate attribution error Von Restorff effect Watching eye effect Well travelled road effect
- 25. WORKING IN GROUP
- 27. THE REAL SOLUTION Maybe… 01 A good decision system 03 Look for contradiction 05 Work on uncertainties 02 Manage risks 04 Use checklists 06 Keep view on the objective
- 28. THE GREAT LEADER
- 30. WHAT’S NEXT?
- 31. Email: pablanch@gmail.com Web: www.patriceblanchard.be THANK YOU!